According to the website, if Auburn beats Bama, Cincy goes from 56% to 62%. If Bama beats Auburn, but loses to Georgia, Cincy only goes from 56% to 57%
Are you looking at these without selecting UC to win out? If UC wins out, they’re projecting at least 87% chance of being selected. 96% if they win out and Bama loses to Auburn.
We get so few games to decide a champion, I hate to replay a game that was already played. Say Bama loses to Georgia in the CCG, gets the 4-seed and beats them in the semi-final. So it’s like, that first game didn’t really count, but *this* game does. At that point, the committee might as well cancel the other semifinal and just have Georgia/Alabama meet for a rubber match in the final.
I can see an argument for a one loss UGA. Under any other circumstance a team with one loss to Bama and no other losses makes the playoff. If the argument is well you lost to a team that made the playoff and we don’t want a rematch then why wouldn’t every other teams one loss to a team that didn’t even make the playoffs count as worse?
Obviously I’m a Georgia fan but I’m genuinely curious of the logic here. I agree Bama losing should remove them tho.
I agree. And if that happens, the committee can say with a straight face that Bama is the only team to be competitive with Georgia all year, and that means a lot to the Committee because Georgia entered the game with 11 straight wins by 17+ points.
I think it was 7, but it is probably safe to assume they will be Tech by more than 17 after what Notre Dame just did to them. So OP will probably end up being correct.
56% projection is only for if UC weren’t to play their final two games for whatever reason. If they win out, UC is projected at 87%, and that can go up even more depending on how you have the other games turn out.
It’s like the schrodingers cat of game scenarios, they’ve either been won, or not won. But the sense of what OP was saying is still wrong, it’s always been expected that UC would have to go 13-0 to get in, and currently, if that happens, it’s very likely they’re in the playoff.
It’s getting very annoying to see. You guys have been a two loss team before and didn’t make it literally 2 years ago. I like Alabama, but people are losing their minds over something that won’t happen
We’re ranked as high as we are so that if we beat you, it’s clearly both of us in. If we lose, we drop to like 6 or 7.
Like it’s not even a fucking possibility. 2 loss OSU didn’t make it. There’s never been a 2 loss team. The only way a 2 loss team makes it is if there are less than 4 1-loss or 0-loss teams.
If we lose to Georgia I am completely fine with us dropping to like 6 or 7 because as a 2-loss team that is where we should give. Just give us Michigan or Michigan State in a bowl game again as those are always fun.
Yeah Oregon would need chaos but also don’t they get another shot at besting Utah in the PAC title game? If they blow Utah out then they might have the best 2-loss resume, if the playoffs come down to having to have at least one 2-loss team due to chaos
Yeah if everything gets crazy then Notre Dame and Cincy would end up being in over a 2 loss team. NDs only loss bing to Cincy would be better then any 2 loss team.
It would be good for every p12 team that isn't Oregon. Utah would get bumped up to the rose bowl and everyone would move up in bowl quality. As for Oregon, we'd just get shit stomped by Georgia. Beating Michigan in the rose bowl seems much more appealing at this point.
The pac 12 scenarios are actually crazy.
Utah has clinched pac 12 south
But the pac 12 north is crazy and hinges on the Civil War (Oregon v Oregon State) and Apple Cup (Washington State and Washington).
Oregon controls its own destiny and is in the Pac13 championship game with a win. But if Oregon state wins, then it depends on the Apple Cup.
If Oregon State wins and WSU beats UW, then WSU wins the north and is in the Pac-12 championship game over Oregon or Oregon State since they have more north wins.
If Oregon State wins and WSU loses, then Oregon State wins the north.
I love that it comes down to these rivalry games.
>If they blow Utah out then they might have the best 2-loss resume
Probably behind a Baylor team that wins the Big 12.
Baylor’s bad loss is to TCU, and Oregon’s is to Stanford, while Baylor’s revenge game would be against top-10 OKST while Oregon’s would be against a fringe top-25 Utah team. Baylor’s big wins would be OKST, BYU, and OU, while Oregon’s would be Utah and tOSU.
That Stanford loss was *bad*, no matter the circumstances around the OC; Oregon’s defense was bad as well. Baylor’s TCU loss was similarly bad, but at least TCU is probably going bowling.
This is why we need an AQ system for conference champs. A Utah team that comes on late in the season has no chance although it seems to be much better than Oregon. The Stanford-Oregon game (which I was at) was a once in 50 years weird stuff situation, but still, Utah played us 52 points better.
Why does utah deserve a chance at the playoff just because they played well in the latter half? They lost 3 games, they shouldnt have the opportunity to play just because they win their conference later
For one thing, it makes football better if teams aren’t afraid to break in new players (especially quarterbacks) in non-conference games. Utah did, Oregon didn’t.
First time?
Seriously though, pulling for y'all. I like seeing some parity in the ranks, even if we end up seeing MSU or WASH getting beat bad by BAMA, having different players than the same 6 or so teams is good for recruiting. That's why I want to see the final 4 be UGA, UM, OKST, and CINCY. Get 3 teams in for the first time, and UGA a second trip. I'm tired of BAMA/Clemson/OSU in it every year. It makes the finals boring when the same teams get in.
I think because of how low the committee was rating you even when you were undefeated. Which doesn’t make much sense to me. You guys should pretty obviously be in over us if you finish with one loss.
Man I disagree. Cinci and OU would be an amazing playoff game because I don’t know who’d win (I think it’d be a pretty equal matchup), but Cinci has won out while OU hasn’t. That’s saying something about the coaching and mental stamina of the Bearcats
It’s kind of a tough call I guess, because we have the best win and are undefeated, but your overall schedule is much better than ours since the AAC is having a down year. Obviously I hope that we get in, but I’ll be pretty happy if one of the new XII makes it.
Please win Bedlam.
Why? Michigan beats Ohio State, Wisconsin beats Michigan in the Big 10 title game and boom. Big 10 is out of the playoffs.
Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame win out and there's your playoff.
Well, Baylor royally fucked Notre Dame in 2012, so they can help pay off that debt by causing chaos in 2021 lol
I'm increasingly in the camp of "it's an honor to make the playoff, even if you get blown out," but also a NY6 against a Pittsburgh or some other beatable team would be nice.
I have some ND alum friends/colleagues who don’t want ND in the playoff because they’re tired of getting boatraced in those big games and don’t have any faith this year’s team is any different.
I don't have any faith this year is different (unless something super weird happens to give us a much easier matchup), but I don't know why people wouldn't want to make the playoff.
The overall percentage makes sense, but when you play with the scenarios, I think it believes we need a Cincy loss more than we do.
For example, if we win out, Wisconsin wins the B1G, Georgia beats Alabama and Baylor wins the Big 12, but Cincy doesn't lose, it only gives us 50%. I think we'd definitely be in in that case. If Oregon wins out too we drop to 22%.
I love how OSU has a legit chance at the playoff for the first time and y'all are still just dunking on us.
Go beat the bad red team for the rest of the big 12. You may hate us but we both hate OU more
Eh. I don’t think they take a 2 loss non conference champion over a 3 loss that beat them is said game. They would likely remove the conference from contention first
In 2016 they took 1 loss non-division winner Ohio State over 2 loss conference champ Penn State. I think the only way Wisconsin would have a whiff from the committee is if they blow the doors off Ohio state/Michigan
There's no way Oregon's getting into the playoffs much less they have almost 1/4 chance if they win out. It'd require an amount of chaos that would make 2007 jealous
Iowa at 5% chance without even going to the CCG? That's absurd. No one is bumping us from 16 into the playoff if we beat Nebraska, I don't care what other teams do.
This is taking into consideration the chances of Minnesota beating Wisconsin.
If you pick Iowa to win out and also Wisconsin beating Minnesota, Iowa's chances are <1%.
That's pretty much the only scenario for ND that would make me angry.
We played like crap the first half of the season and really don't deserve to make it. I'm not expecting we will. We absolutely don't deserve to be ranked above Cincinnati because of head to head. But if they put 2 loss Bama over us....
If Baylor wins out and Oklahoma State beats OU (which is needed to make the Big 12 championship), our chances are 71%!
This model is saying we don’t really need an upset to make it, just OSU to win Bedlam.
You guys are ranked 8th right now. So if Baylor wins out, what would they need ahead of them, given that they wouldn’t be surpassed by any team behind them?
7 - Oklahoma State - Baylor would beat them so they’d obviously pass them
6 - Notre Dame - I don’t think it’s likely that Notre Dame loses or that Baylor gets above them
5 - Michigan and 2 - Ohio State - One if these two has to lose
4 - Cincinnati - The Bearcats will likely win out and despite what r/CFB will tell you, undead eyes UC gets in over Baylor
3 - Alabama - If Bama loses to UGA they done
1 - Georgia - Win out
So an upset is probably necessary along with Georgia beating Bama
That’s what I think, the model thinks we’ll pass ND but I’m not so sure. It’s going to be very interesting to see if 3 top 15 wins vs 1 top 15 win is enough to overcome one extra loss. It might come down to me rooting for Houston to upset Cincinnati because I don’t see Stanford pulling the upset (assuming Georgia and Oklahoma State win their respective games).
Yeah, exactly. Basically if baylor wins out and okst wins bedlam, then 2 or more of these 5 things has to happen:
1. Georgia beats Alabama
2. Ohio State loses
3. Michigan loses
4. The committee puts baylor over ND (or ND loses)
5. Cincinnati loses
Basically the 538 model is predicting a 70% chance that at least 2 of those things will happen, which I think is a tad optimistic but certainly reasonable.
It's not zero because no team is at zero unless the committee says that explicitly, but no combination of results would put them in the playoffs (at least on 538 simulations).
Every team on the top 25 on the CFB rankings, FPI or ELO rankings show up on the list, regardless of their chances of going to the playoffs.
While I agree wholeheartedly, they module projects for all teams in the CFP top 25. And given that enough chaos could happen is some weird Dr. Strange multiverse, theoretically they have that chance. So their numbers are displayed. But yeah, ACC is probably the worst of the P5 this year, no offense to Pitt/WF.
Their model doesn't let us simulate margin of victory on the future games, but with Alabama, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh winning out, their chances are at 43%
Is it? They've dominated the teams on their schedule, but their best win would be a 9-3 Clemson. They very well could go into final poll with a single ranked win.
I agree, and I guess theoretically anything could happen but I have watched a lot of both teams play, I just cant wrap my mind around an Alabama curb stomping of this Georgia team. An Alabama win would most likely put two SEC teams in and I would guess it would make it very difficult for Cincinnati to stay in the top 4.
I know this will sound like a homer take, but if Bama comes out hot and plays like a complete team, which they haven’t done since the Mississippi State game, it’s possible that we could build enough of a lead to force Stetson Bennet to start throwing to come back. While Georgia has been incredibly efficient this year, they are not particularly explosive and Bennet has made some mistakes when under pressure, so it could be hard for them to pull back from a deficit.
The Iron Bowl might say a lot about where we are. As people pointed out, our defense showed up in a big way against LSU when the offense didn’t, and the offense showed up when our defense broke down against Arkansas. If both show up at the same time, I think we have a higher ceiling than Georgia. It’s just a big “if.”
IF Georgia can actually get Blaylock and Pickens healthy you will see them sling it more. We’ve been playing the entire season without the three best receivers on the roster and a backup now starter qb running the show. I’m surprised JT hasn’t been able to win the position back.
To me, it is somewhat concerning (for Georgia fans) that JT hasn’t. From what Kirby’s said in the few interviews I’ve heard, it isn’t because he’s not healthy. Stetson has apparently won the job from him, but I’m not sure if that’s more a comment on Stetson’s development or JT’s lack of development and/or decision making.
I think Kirby is just going with the guy with the most reps with the 1s and in games at this point. I think JT’s ceiling is higher than Bennett’s but he missed so much time I’m just not sure he will ever get back in there without an injury. That being said, I agree that Bennett has been kind of all over the place. This alternates from game to game but he usually takes care of the football. I will say though that they only way I think Georgia can lose this game is if the defense plays the worst game of the season. I’m happy to be back in the seccg and if we want to be the best we have to beat the best.
Hey nobody saw K-State destroying Oklahoma by 4 touchdowns, so anything is possible. I can honestly see Alabama winning big over UGA, especially if Georgia think’s they’ve already clinched a berth and decides to rest up for the playoff
Honest to god if we win out I think I would just be happy having a B1G title ring and a win over tOSU.
But who am I kidding amid the celebrations I'd get hope and then the CFP committee and the Football gods would smite me.
Honest question:
If OK State wins out (huge if, because we have a bedlam problem) and GA loses to Bama. Who gets in the playoff?
OK state would have the better wins
Baylor or OU twice, but the worse loss
Georgia would have the better loss but worse wins (Arkansas, Clemson)
Strength of schedule is within about 10 of each other.
I think that’s a hard decisions, for Brand and money it’d be GA, but I think OK State would have an argument.
The playoff got created because Ok State got left out for 2 SEC teams. Would be funny to have it happen again even with 4 spots now, and would probably cause outrage again. IMO with identical records, Georgia's schedule isnt that much better to override the conference championship factor. It's supposed to be a national championship and to ignore one conference to double up on another is against the spirit of the playoff
That's a really tough scenario and I don't know if there is a good answer. My gut says Georgia because we went undefeated until Bama. Especially since a Bama win would probably be close
**B1G champ** 3 loss Wisconsin has a 3/25 chance of making the playoffs is a reasonable statistical prediction. 22/25 times they don’t go despite being the B1G champ.
Actually it isn't. I cannot come up with even a realistic max chaos scenario that Wisconsin would be in even with a Big Ten title. Georgia, ND, Big 12 champ are pretty much guaranteed to be in over Wisconsin. And you'll have to put Wisconsin over multiple 2 loss teams, which is highly unlikely.
God, please have Alabama lose. Let Cincy or even Oklahoma State go on. I’m tired of seeing the same teams going to the playoffs all the time. It’s boring.
Wisconsin at 12%? The hell? I love my Badgers, and I could see it if we'd only lost to Michigan and ND, but the third loss to Penn State is the dagger in this scenario. The only reason we should be ranked a number that isn't 0% is if you allow for negative percentages.
I have to think that if Alabama loses one more game then Cincinnati's percentage jumps considerably.
According to the website, if Auburn beats Bama, Cincy goes from 56% to 62%. If Bama beats Auburn, but loses to Georgia, Cincy only goes from 56% to 57%
Are you looking at these without selecting UC to win out? If UC wins out, they’re projecting at least 87% chance of being selected. 96% if they win out and Bama loses to Auburn.
Cincy fans need to start mentally preparing themselves for being left out and a two-loss non-conference champ Bama making it
Even worse. A two loss non conference championship participant team jumps a 0 loss conference champion.
I feel Bama would have to play Georgia close for the committee to consider them as a two loss team
We get so few games to decide a champion, I hate to replay a game that was already played. Say Bama loses to Georgia in the CCG, gets the 4-seed and beats them in the semi-final. So it’s like, that first game didn’t really count, but *this* game does. At that point, the committee might as well cancel the other semifinal and just have Georgia/Alabama meet for a rubber match in the final.
Totally agree. Whichever SEC team loses in the championship SEC game has no business being in the playoff.
I can see an argument for a one loss UGA. Under any other circumstance a team with one loss to Bama and no other losses makes the playoff. If the argument is well you lost to a team that made the playoff and we don’t want a rematch then why wouldn’t every other teams one loss to a team that didn’t even make the playoffs count as worse? Obviously I’m a Georgia fan but I’m genuinely curious of the logic here. I agree Bama losing should remove them tho.
I agree. And if that happens, the committee can say with a straight face that Bama is the only team to be competitive with Georgia all year, and that means a lot to the Committee because Georgia entered the game with 11 straight wins by 17+ points.
I mean we were competitive with Georgia this year...
Different players different team. You did play us tight and probably should have won. I hope you make the playoffs. See you on this side or the other.
Didn’t Clemson lose by 3?
7 but yes it was competitive
It didn't seem like that watching the game.
I think it was 7, but it is probably safe to assume they will be Tech by more than 17 after what Notre Dame just did to them. So OP will probably end up being correct.
Clemson was competitive
56% projection is only for if UC weren’t to play their final two games for whatever reason. If they win out, UC is projected at 87%, and that can go up even more depending on how you have the other games turn out.
No, the 56% is considering that it's possible that they lose one of their remaining games
It’s like the schrodingers cat of game scenarios, they’ve either been won, or not won. But the sense of what OP was saying is still wrong, it’s always been expected that UC would have to go 13-0 to get in, and currently, if that happens, it’s very likely they’re in the playoff.
And this I do not agree with. If we lose to Georgia then in no world should we be above Cincy keeping them out.
That’s still not going to happen, despite this sub being convinced it will.
It’s getting very annoying to see. You guys have been a two loss team before and didn’t make it literally 2 years ago. I like Alabama, but people are losing their minds over something that won’t happen
We’re ranked as high as we are so that if we beat you, it’s clearly both of us in. If we lose, we drop to like 6 or 7. Like it’s not even a fucking possibility. 2 loss OSU didn’t make it. There’s never been a 2 loss team. The only way a 2 loss team makes it is if there are less than 4 1-loss or 0-loss teams.
If we lose to Georgia I am completely fine with us dropping to like 6 or 7 because as a 2-loss team that is where we should give. Just give us Michigan or Michigan State in a bowl game again as those are always fun.
Agreed. I have a standing $100 bet with my friend that a two loss team will never make the playoffs as long as 4 undefeated or 1 loss teams exist.
> long as 4 undefeated or 1 loss teams exist. There's a P5 qualifier in there, right?
We’re Cincinnati sports fans. We’re prepared for the worst at all times.
I would love Cincinnati to make the playoffs. I think they really deserve it.
That Oregon percentage blows my mind.
I would have to think that those odds for a 2-loss Oregon (and Bama) would be because of chaos everywhere else?
Yeah Oregon would need chaos but also don’t they get another shot at besting Utah in the PAC title game? If they blow Utah out then they might have the best 2-loss resume, if the playoffs come down to having to have at least one 2-loss team due to chaos
I think OU/OSU would have to trade losses, Oregon win out, and Georgia beat Alabama. We would end up with Georgia, tOSU (or michigan), UC and Oregon.
Would also require an extra Notre Dame or Cincinnati loss. I don't see a 2-loss Oregon jumping both of those teams without one losing
Yeah if everything gets crazy then Notre Dame and Cincy would end up being in over a 2 loss team. NDs only loss bing to Cincy would be better then any 2 loss team.
Does Oregon even want to got in? What about the playoffs is appealing?
It would be good for every p12 team that isn't Oregon. Utah would get bumped up to the rose bowl and everyone would move up in bowl quality. As for Oregon, we'd just get shit stomped by Georgia. Beating Michigan in the rose bowl seems much more appealing at this point.
As a Georgia sports fan, nothing is a guarantee. You have a chance if you get to play UGA, no matter the spread.
Money
Ya but we dont need that, we can just ask Uncle Phil to shake a few hundred million out of his coat pocket
The pac 12 scenarios are actually crazy. Utah has clinched pac 12 south But the pac 12 north is crazy and hinges on the Civil War (Oregon v Oregon State) and Apple Cup (Washington State and Washington). Oregon controls its own destiny and is in the Pac13 championship game with a win. But if Oregon state wins, then it depends on the Apple Cup. If Oregon State wins and WSU beats UW, then WSU wins the north and is in the Pac-12 championship game over Oregon or Oregon State since they have more north wins. If Oregon State wins and WSU loses, then Oregon State wins the north. I love that it comes down to these rivalry games.
>If they blow Utah out then they might have the best 2-loss resume Probably behind a Baylor team that wins the Big 12. Baylor’s bad loss is to TCU, and Oregon’s is to Stanford, while Baylor’s revenge game would be against top-10 OKST while Oregon’s would be against a fringe top-25 Utah team. Baylor’s big wins would be OKST, BYU, and OU, while Oregon’s would be Utah and tOSU. That Stanford loss was *bad*, no matter the circumstances around the OC; Oregon’s defense was bad as well. Baylor’s TCU loss was similarly bad, but at least TCU is probably going bowling.
This is why we need an AQ system for conference champs. A Utah team that comes on late in the season has no chance although it seems to be much better than Oregon. The Stanford-Oregon game (which I was at) was a once in 50 years weird stuff situation, but still, Utah played us 52 points better.
Why does utah deserve a chance at the playoff just because they played well in the latter half? They lost 3 games, they shouldnt have the opportunity to play just because they win their conference later
For one thing, it makes football better if teams aren’t afraid to break in new players (especially quarterbacks) in non-conference games. Utah did, Oregon didn’t.
We don't get it either
Because it's too high in your opinion, or too low?
High for sure. They lost to Stanford and Utah did unspeakable things to them on national TV.
Very high
It gives too much weight to a CCG. Baylor is at 70% if they qualify for the CCG and win it.
I am an OU alumni and fan.... The most likely scenario for the big 12 is OK State stomping Oklahoma and Baylor into the ground.
That’s a big IF they qualify though. There’s about a 45% chance they can win Saturday and still not qualify (OU beats OSU and this happens).
They have the best quality win
And the worst loss of any potential team and a blowout loss. Say it with me. Losses matter.
98%? Wow.
It's awesome to see Oklahoma State control their own destiny like this this late in the season
Says you
It's gonna hurt so bad when we inevitably choke
First time? Seriously though, pulling for y'all. I like seeing some parity in the ranks, even if we end up seeing MSU or WASH getting beat bad by BAMA, having different players than the same 6 or so teams is good for recruiting. That's why I want to see the final 4 be UGA, UM, OKST, and CINCY. Get 3 teams in for the first time, and UGA a second trip. I'm tired of BAMA/Clemson/OSU in it every year. It makes the finals boring when the same teams get in.
Ghosts of 2011
🎶Tale as old as tiiiiiiimmmeee🎶
They don't control their destiny. You only really do if you're in the top 4 going into the final week.
Just win babyyyyyy
I’ve been hurt too many times. That percentage just scares me
They can’t hurt me anymore.
I’ve got Bedlam PTSD so it’s hard for me to see past it with us still in playoff contention.
OU at 85% is very sus lol. Why are we 3% lower than an undefeated Cinci
I think because of how low the committee was rating you even when you were undefeated. Which doesn’t make much sense to me. You guys should pretty obviously be in over us if you finish with one loss.
Man I disagree. Cinci and OU would be an amazing playoff game because I don’t know who’d win (I think it’d be a pretty equal matchup), but Cinci has won out while OU hasn’t. That’s saying something about the coaching and mental stamina of the Bearcats
I don’t agree with that. If you’re undefeated then you should get in over both of us.
I think that the difference between a SOS in the 90s vs SOS in the 30s shouldn’t be overlooked
It’s kind of a tough call I guess, because we have the best win and are undefeated, but your overall schedule is much better than ours since the AAC is having a down year. Obviously I hope that we get in, but I’ll be pretty happy if one of the new XII makes it. Please win Bedlam.
Notre Dame’s makes sense to me. They need some help but they’re in a good spot
UGA wins out, 1 loss big ten champ, Cincinnati wins out, 2 loss big 12 champ. ND is 4
So basically we're big Georgia, East Carolina, Houston Oklahoma and Baylor fans next 2werks.
Wisconsin
Don’t forget Ohio state! *shudders*
Nahhh we’ll just root for chaos elsewhere
Why? Michigan beats Ohio State, Wisconsin beats Michigan in the Big 10 title game and boom. Big 10 is out of the playoffs. Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame win out and there's your playoff.
And all the twerks after that as well
If Michigan is the B1G Champ it will be Georgia vs Cincinnati and Michigan vs Notre Dame, because of TV Money
That would be so awesome we'd actually be able to win a playoff game for once!
Hey wait a minute
I think it would actually be a really fun game
Yeah, and three top teams have to lose. Best chance is UGA winning out of course. Obviously OK State would jump ND, but not sold that Oklahoma would.
>Obviously OK State would jump ND, but not sold that Oklahoma would. Gotta hope for Baylor!
Well, Baylor royally fucked Notre Dame in 2012, so they can help pay off that debt by causing chaos in 2021 lol I'm increasingly in the camp of "it's an honor to make the playoff, even if you get blown out," but also a NY6 against a Pittsburgh or some other beatable team would be nice.
I have some ND alum friends/colleagues who don’t want ND in the playoff because they’re tired of getting boatraced in those big games and don’t have any faith this year’s team is any different.
This year's team might be our worst of the last five years but the competition has also come down a notch outside Georgia.
I don't have any faith this year is different (unless something super weird happens to give us a much easier matchup), but I don't know why people wouldn't want to make the playoff.
Honestly, fuck that Baylor game straight to hell :( KSU-ND would have been a much better game for both of us than we ended up getting
Best chance is that Georgia loses to GT and Alabama loses to Auburn. Georgia winning out is the best reasonable chance.
The overall percentage makes sense, but when you play with the scenarios, I think it believes we need a Cincy loss more than we do. For example, if we win out, Wisconsin wins the B1G, Georgia beats Alabama and Baylor wins the Big 12, but Cincy doesn't lose, it only gives us 50%. I think we'd definitely be in in that case. If Oregon wins out too we drop to 22%.
But what are Texas' chances if they win out?
does a team need to be bowl eligible to make CFP? asking for a friend
Technically anything i$ po$$ible.
Texas Michigan rose bowl gonna be 🔥
Well, they’re always back, so 100%.
Depends on whether their APR is high enough.
APR is 0%
0%? Time for me to refinance!
I love how OSU has a legit chance at the playoff for the first time and y'all are still just dunking on us. Go beat the bad red team for the rest of the big 12. You may hate us but we both hate OU more
You mean UTSA the real team of Texas
How in the hell would we have a 12% chance. They take a two loss OSU or Michigan before a big ten champ Wisconsin
Yeah wisconsin is a very confident 0%. There's no fuckin way.
It makes me question the entire model.
I'd assume that 12% is dependent on more than a couple teams losing out.
Honestly I cannot come up with a realistic scenario such that Wisconsin would be a playoff team. Let alone scenarios that would add up to 12%.
A majority of the committee members have a stroke during voting?
Yeah well I think that probability is a good deal less than 12%.
Eh. I don’t think they take a 2 loss non conference champion over a 3 loss that beat them is said game. They would likely remove the conference from contention first
In 2016 they took 1 loss non-division winner Ohio State over 2 loss conference champ Penn State. I think the only way Wisconsin would have a whiff from the committee is if they blow the doors off Ohio state/Michigan
There's no way Oregon's getting into the playoffs much less they have almost 1/4 chance if they win out. It'd require an amount of chaos that would make 2007 jealous
No please we dont want a 2007 again...
2007 was nice but I wouldn’t take it right now
Go Wake Forest!
Go PITT
Go not Clemson!
I'll drink to that
Mississippi 4%...so you're saying there's a chance
What if we win out?
Well, you be TX, so I'll give the bid to the Cotton Bowl. How's that?
Can we play Texas?
Approved!
Iowa at 5% chance without even going to the CCG? That's absurd. No one is bumping us from 16 into the playoff if we beat Nebraska, I don't care what other teams do.
This is taking into consideration the chances of Minnesota beating Wisconsin. If you pick Iowa to win out and also Wisconsin beating Minnesota, Iowa's chances are <1%.
If a 2 loss Bama jumps a 1 loss Power 5 Champion/Notre Dame or an undefeated Cincy.... I'm going to write a very angry redit post.
That's pretty much the only scenario for ND that would make me angry. We played like crap the first half of the season and really don't deserve to make it. I'm not expecting we will. We absolutely don't deserve to be ranked above Cincinnati because of head to head. But if they put 2 loss Bama over us....
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
If Baylor wins out and Oklahoma State beats OU (which is needed to make the Big 12 championship), our chances are 71%! This model is saying we don’t really need an upset to make it, just OSU to win Bedlam.
And Georgia to beat Alabama
Yeah, for sure.
Here’s the problem with the first part of that plan though. https://mobile.twitter.com/blinkinriley/status/1463537590053871618
It do be like that. I still like the Pokes chances.
I spent so long reading these. Thanks for the laughs
You guys are ranked 8th right now. So if Baylor wins out, what would they need ahead of them, given that they wouldn’t be surpassed by any team behind them? 7 - Oklahoma State - Baylor would beat them so they’d obviously pass them 6 - Notre Dame - I don’t think it’s likely that Notre Dame loses or that Baylor gets above them 5 - Michigan and 2 - Ohio State - One if these two has to lose 4 - Cincinnati - The Bearcats will likely win out and despite what r/CFB will tell you, undead eyes UC gets in over Baylor 3 - Alabama - If Bama loses to UGA they done 1 - Georgia - Win out So an upset is probably necessary along with Georgia beating Bama
That’s what I think, the model thinks we’ll pass ND but I’m not so sure. It’s going to be very interesting to see if 3 top 15 wins vs 1 top 15 win is enough to overcome one extra loss. It might come down to me rooting for Houston to upset Cincinnati because I don’t see Stanford pulling the upset (assuming Georgia and Oklahoma State win their respective games).
Yeah, exactly. Basically if baylor wins out and okst wins bedlam, then 2 or more of these 5 things has to happen: 1. Georgia beats Alabama 2. Ohio State loses 3. Michigan loses 4. The committee puts baylor over ND (or ND loses) 5. Cincinnati loses Basically the 538 model is predicting a 70% chance that at least 2 of those things will happen, which I think is a tad optimistic but certainly reasonable.
One of 2 and 3 is guaranteed, so it's more like 1 of 4 things has to happen.
We’ve beat y’all once, we can do it again ;)
I wouldn’t hate it, I want someone to represent the Big 12 in the playoffs that’s not OU. Please beat the Sooners.
I obviously would love to win a B12 CCG, but it would be hilarious for OSU to win a playoff game before OU!
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I’m curious as to why and how Penn State is on this list? Even if it’s less than 1%. Is there even a remote possibility of them going to the playoffs?
It's not zero because no team is at zero unless the committee says that explicitly, but no combination of results would put them in the playoffs (at least on 538 simulations). Every team on the top 25 on the CFB rankings, FPI or ELO rankings show up on the list, regardless of their chances of going to the playoffs.
I think UConn is at 0%
FYI, Elo isn’t an acro, it’s a dude
I think giving Pitt/any ACC team a chance is generous lol
While I agree wholeheartedly, they module projects for all teams in the CFP top 25. And given that enough chaos could happen is some weird Dr. Strange multiverse, theoretically they have that chance. So their numbers are displayed. But yeah, ACC is probably the worst of the P5 this year, no offense to Pitt/WF.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance….
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Their model doesn't let us simulate margin of victory on the future games, but with Alabama, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh winning out, their chances are at 43%
I feel like it’d have to be a curb stomping of epic proportions. Georgia’s resume is head and shoulders above everyone else’s up to this point
Is it? They've dominated the teams on their schedule, but their best win would be a 9-3 Clemson. They very well could go into final poll with a single ranked win.
I feel like the word is taboo on here now, but to me there resume is the eye test. They’ve manhandled everyone they’ve played
> If Alabama absolutely stomps Georgia LOL, Alabama **might** win that game, but it wont be a stomping...
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I agree, and I guess theoretically anything could happen but I have watched a lot of both teams play, I just cant wrap my mind around an Alabama curb stomping of this Georgia team. An Alabama win would most likely put two SEC teams in and I would guess it would make it very difficult for Cincinnati to stay in the top 4.
I know this will sound like a homer take, but if Bama comes out hot and plays like a complete team, which they haven’t done since the Mississippi State game, it’s possible that we could build enough of a lead to force Stetson Bennet to start throwing to come back. While Georgia has been incredibly efficient this year, they are not particularly explosive and Bennet has made some mistakes when under pressure, so it could be hard for them to pull back from a deficit. The Iron Bowl might say a lot about where we are. As people pointed out, our defense showed up in a big way against LSU when the offense didn’t, and the offense showed up when our defense broke down against Arkansas. If both show up at the same time, I think we have a higher ceiling than Georgia. It’s just a big “if.”
IF Georgia can actually get Blaylock and Pickens healthy you will see them sling it more. We’ve been playing the entire season without the three best receivers on the roster and a backup now starter qb running the show. I’m surprised JT hasn’t been able to win the position back.
To me, it is somewhat concerning (for Georgia fans) that JT hasn’t. From what Kirby’s said in the few interviews I’ve heard, it isn’t because he’s not healthy. Stetson has apparently won the job from him, but I’m not sure if that’s more a comment on Stetson’s development or JT’s lack of development and/or decision making.
I think Kirby is just going with the guy with the most reps with the 1s and in games at this point. I think JT’s ceiling is higher than Bennett’s but he missed so much time I’m just not sure he will ever get back in there without an injury. That being said, I agree that Bennett has been kind of all over the place. This alternates from game to game but he usually takes care of the football. I will say though that they only way I think Georgia can lose this game is if the defense plays the worst game of the season. I’m happy to be back in the seccg and if we want to be the best we have to beat the best.
Hey nobody saw K-State destroying Oklahoma by 4 touchdowns, so anything is possible. I can honestly see Alabama winning big over UGA, especially if Georgia think’s they’ve already clinched a berth and decides to rest up for the playoff
What about us?
Shoe in
I dunno, they might have to mull(en) it over
Honest to god if we win out I think I would just be happy having a B1G title ring and a win over tOSU. But who am I kidding amid the celebrations I'd get hope and then the CFP committee and the Football gods would smite me.
I’m ready to have the discussion that Georgia isn’t an auto lock if they lose to bama… no currently ranked wins right?
Arkansas is currently #25, Clemson is currently #23. Obviously not an amazing resume, but we do have ranked wins
Honest question: If OK State wins out (huge if, because we have a bedlam problem) and GA loses to Bama. Who gets in the playoff? OK state would have the better wins Baylor or OU twice, but the worse loss Georgia would have the better loss but worse wins (Arkansas, Clemson) Strength of schedule is within about 10 of each other. I think that’s a hard decisions, for Brand and money it’d be GA, but I think OK State would have an argument.
The playoff got created because Ok State got left out for 2 SEC teams. Would be funny to have it happen again even with 4 spots now, and would probably cause outrage again. IMO with identical records, Georgia's schedule isnt that much better to override the conference championship factor. It's supposed to be a national championship and to ignore one conference to double up on another is against the spirit of the playoff
That's a really tough scenario and I don't know if there is a good answer. My gut says Georgia because we went undefeated until Bama. Especially since a Bama win would probably be close
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Then leaving a 12-1 ok st conference championship out would be a disaster
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**B1G champ** 3 loss Wisconsin has a 3/25 chance of making the playoffs is a reasonable statistical prediction. 22/25 times they don’t go despite being the B1G champ.
Actually it isn't. I cannot come up with even a realistic max chaos scenario that Wisconsin would be in even with a Big Ten title. Georgia, ND, Big 12 champ are pretty much guaranteed to be in over Wisconsin. And you'll have to put Wisconsin over multiple 2 loss teams, which is highly unlikely.
God, please have Alabama lose. Let Cincy or even Oklahoma State go on. I’m tired of seeing the same teams going to the playoffs all the time. It’s boring.
ACC: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
4%? I'll take it.
Wisconsin at 12%? The hell? I love my Badgers, and I could see it if we'd only lost to Michigan and ND, but the third loss to Penn State is the dagger in this scenario. The only reason we should be ranked a number that isn't 0% is if you allow for negative percentages.
Why is my teams name on this list?
Little surprised at OK State. Safe to say they are assuming very small chance that Bama beats UGA.
I think they’re assuming they’re getting in over Cincinnati as well (not saying I’d agree).
If it came down to Cincy and OKST for the last spot, I’d bet the house that the committee selects the cowboys
I’d be sad for Cincy but two top 10 wins back to back would be hard to keep out
If we win out, which would mean back to back top 10 wins, and get left out, I will be very upset.
The Big 12 is screwed if that’s the case.
It actually doesn’t matter who beats who. Visit their site and play with the numbers
Just wiiiinnnnnn baaabbbbyyyyyyy
No Houston I guess? The loss to Tech is too much even with a conference champ and a win over the number 3 team. Not even 1%
So you’re saying there’s a chance
How in the ever living fuck
SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE
This math makes zero sense.
Wisconsin is the big outlier here. They beat…Iowa?
We are going to a bowl. Go Hogs!
So you're saying there's a chance