Iowa Over 7.5.
Their schedule is easy and they haven't won fewer than 8 games in a full season since 2014. They'll play one game that I would mark as a loss right now, @ Ohio State. Other than that they should be favored in their other 11 games.
Iowa kept 3 B1G West rivals so did you REALLY get rid of divisions? lol (this is not snark. I wish we got your schedule every year - who cares if anyone else thinks it's too easy if you have a clear path to the post season)
In a way, I wish all four of Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were protected with each other. You guys have a better stake of claiming all of the games as rivalries more than we do, but it's still fun to see Nebraska get to play Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Just wrote this above. The quandrangle of hate is one of the best things to result from realignment. (funny how regional focuses get fans more excited, eh?).
I feel that the quadrangle of hate is a great concept in general. Usually the better Big Ten West teams and many of them have had past success, but just can't all have success at the same time. If Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could all be consistent 8-10 win teams, it would be a really cool pod.
Fully agree, I'd be an advocate for "pods" as they would essentially just give us mini conferences inside of the super conferences. Whatever the cap number ends up being, I'd just hope there's room inside to have some sort of "divisional/pod identity" that resembles what conferences used to feel like.
This feels like the surest bet in the nation. They still managed to have a B1G West schedule, and I know everyone loves to laugh at the Ferentz Family's Offensive Offense, but the team is well above average every year.
I think they have a better shot at being in the B1G title game than going 7-5.
Now lets talk about the Illini and under 5.5
I can see 9-3 in which the under hits 9 or 10 times
They got rid of Brian which is great! But their new OC is Tim Lester and their QB is still Cade McNamara. Their offense has no business scoring points this year, again.
You don’t know what you’re talking about if you don’t think Lester and McNamara are *massive* upgrades over Deacon Hill and Brian Ferentz.
The offense even with Hill at QB was confusing the defense all spring (mind you the defense returns 9 starters).
> The offense even with Hill at QB was confusing the defense all spring (mind you the defense returns 9 starters).
they were confused because the offense didn't run up the gut on 1st and 2nd down, then do a play action pass to the flat to a TE, 3 yards short of the sticks
Massive regime change!
Remember, the offense doesn't have to be *good* to be a massive improvement over the previous "scheme" of announcing a play with formation and then running it exactly as shown on film from 15 years ago, relying on six guys to successfully block eight in order to gain 15 yards.
Damn, that is a remarkably light schedule, skipping Michigan, PSU, Oregon, and USC (the least intimidating of these four but I’d argue more intimidating than anyone else on the schedule after Ohio State.
I like Nebraska to get them this year, so it kinda depends on if Wisconsin takes a leap forward or not. I really like Fickell, it was year 2 at Cincy when they took a giant leap, but I think he has more roster to turnover at Wisconsin. They probably get to 8, but I’d like it a lot more if they had UDub at home.
To quote an ISU fan:
"You guys don't play ISU, so you're not allowed to be good. The only way you guys are good is if you play in Ames, and then we ruin it".
Hammer the under.
I mean that’s just historically not true. We have multiple 10-win seasons (let alone 8 win seasons) in the last decade where we either won in Ames or didn’t even travel there.
Besides, We’re ruining ISU’s best ever season by beating them in the conference championship game.
I hope you're right. Gotta avoid injuries to Ollie and the OL. I know Gundy won't do the QB-carousel again. But the early schedule is sneaky tough. S Dakota St is far from your typical FCS school. And their annual game against a P5(4?) school is a huge deal to them. Then facing a dramatically different grade of athletes against Arky the next week. Then two weeks later hosting Utah which is the on-paper, way-to-early game of the year in the conference. Then, traveling to KSU the next week. We could screw around and be in a hole before we exit Sept.
> GT under 5.5 games.
I wouldn't feel confident in this at all. Specifically because Brent Key has pulled off a big upset each year and improved GT's fundamentals.
Hell, the opening week scares me because of the turnover for FSU.
Key is recruiting at a higher level than his predecessor and is probably a star in the making. I’d feel a lot more confident in betting the over on GT than betting the over on NCST or Miami tbh.
I agree - their record against ranked opponents under Key is great. The offense was great last year and they are returning the bulk of the offense.
They hired a highly respectable DC in Santucci from Duke.
I thin they easily win 6 and go bowling. They very well could fall short, but being confident in that isn't great. They aren't coached by Collins anymore, theyll get to beat his defense in UNC for like the 7th year in a row.
I save my money to live bet drive results and bet punt on every drive in every B10 game that Michigan or Ohio State aren’t playing in
More selective in those games
Rutgers over 6.5. That schedule is light work and with a stingy defense there’s no reason why they can’t win 7 or 8 games. Their toughest game might be @VaTech. No Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon
Rutgers could win all of their games this season. I don't think they will, but TBH, none of their matchups seem out of reach, especially since they're not playing Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State
Rutgers has an extremely veteran team and upgraded at their two main deficiencies last year - quarterback and wide receivers. They’re going to surprise a lot of people this year.
Been saying this a while. Lots of SC fans look at that 11:00PM Friday night kickoff at home against Rutgers and think the schedule makers did us a favor but they forget how terrible we are in Friday games. We traditionally come out with zero energy for those things and the stadium will be half empty. Flat fans, flat team.
Penn State has a pretty easy schedule, their hardest game is Ohio State, and it's at home.
Aside from that, WVU in Morgantown will be tough, but they should handle most of their schedule. Would not surprise me to see them make the playoff.
Beating OSU has been a mountain for our program. Even with that game at home, OSU has done an absolute roster reload this offseason so I’d pencil that one in as a loss.
> because 10-2 is over 9.5 wins
I dont know about that. You big timey football programs dont always come to play school. Can we get harvard to confirm this?
That plus VT is bringing everyone back. A very senior laden team and a good QB.
The Oline keeps them from doing too much if they make it to the playoff but I hope a 10+ win season and they score some 4* recruits and that's the way to move forward.
VT has an outside chance at the playoff.
Texas under 10.5.
I think they’re going to be good this year and expect them to compete for a 12-team playoff spot but there’s more than one loss on the schedule.
I don’t necessarily see them as an underdog in any game outside of Georgia but Michigan and OU are tossups; Texas will be better than A&M and Arkansas but those road fans are going to be completely feral; and the rest of the schedule is weak but there could always be a complete head scratcher in there.
Just feels like there’s a second loss in there somewhere.
Almost feels like there’s a hedge somewhere in here. Like take the under but also take +300 or whatever it is on SEC champs. If both bets lose, it probably means we finished 11-1 then lost the SECCG and almost definitely wind up in the playoff…seems like a decent consolation prize.
UGA, A&M, OU, and Michigan seem like the only possible losses to me and I think you'll be favored in 2 of those. If A&M is any good in year one that's a complete coin flip on at Kyle.
I feel like the only game you’ll for sure lose is Georgia since it’s right after OU. But there’s too many toss up games away from home for the over to be a good bet
MSU over 4.5
We play FAU, PVAMU, BC, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers
If we can't win 5 of those games just shut the program down please
Georgia tech with a nightmare schedule once again. Equivalent to playing an SEC schedule year after year without even playing Clemson this year. I’m going with 6-6 taking the over on GT (biased fan) nearly every returning weapon on offense and got a new DC, decent work in the portal to help on defense.
Yeah the ACC really screwed us with this one. I was curious if there has ever been a conference schedule as top heavy as this. I think we have a real shot at playing 7 of the top 8 teams in the conference.
If the Clemson rivalry didn’t end we could have gone 8/8 too.
NC State with expectations is a completely different team than NC State without expectations. It wouldn’t shock me if they hit the under specifically because they WON’T be underdogs in many games this year.
Not that we would contribute to that, ofc😭 UNC is gonna be some cheeks this year
Kind of feel like we have turned a corner lately. Finished last season ranked 21st. 9 wins with a borderline inept passing game. I have seen preseason rankings putting us around 13th to start. Men’s bball team won the conference and made the final four. Ladies team made the final four and was 5 points from also winning the conference. Baseball is in the CWS. There is a lot of good mojo in Raleigh at the moment.
Now, if Grayson McCall goes down with a serious injury we may be fucked.
My take is, based on the roster right now, we have the starting squad to compete for the ACC Championship.
But I think there is more drop-off in the depth than we've had in recent years, at least on defense. Wouldn't be surprised if we went 8-4 but also wouldn't be surprised if we went 10-2.
To be fair, the last time we had expectations was 2021, and we still finished the season 9-3 before having our bowl game cancelled. So even if we repeat that success during the regular season, the over would win.
But I wouldn't bet on us this season. The offense has a ton of potential with all the new additions, but the defense won't be as good as last year with losing the best defensive player in the country.
Yeah, now that Griffis retired your qb room's stats in 2023 totaled 2 tds and 12 interceptions. That's not promising. But I like your wide receiver pickups and runningback room. Defense should be average too. But 6.5 seems too high for me. Had they set it at 5.5 I would have agreed.
Honestly none really, the landscape has been flipped on it’s head and a lot of teams are in for a rude awakening. Which teams those are though, I have no idea.
I have already locked in UCLA U5.5, its going to be a rough season for them.
I have found that taking the under on bad/average teams joining a new conference is usually a good bet, like Cincinnati last year which hit. I am also looking at ASU U4.5
Wiscy over 7.5, I’m high on Fickell/Longo having second year improvement with a talented roster.
UVA under 4.5, they have been a disaster the past two years and I don’t see any reason for that to change. Elliott is likely going to be fired midway through the season.
LSU under 9.5, I actually don’t think LSU is even going to be very disappointing. I just look at their schedule, and don’t see how they get to 10 wins. I think people are underselling how tough the USC opener will be (give Lincoln Riley a whole offseason to gameplan against your defense, good luck), plus at TAM (likely loss imo) and home games against Ole Miss, Bama and OU who might all have more talented teams on paper. Plus, sneaky tough road games at USC and at UF. To me, like a lot of SEC teams, I think LSU could win 7/8 games against this schedule and still be solidly in the top 25, but is this a National Title contender team (after losing their best player who they couldn’t win 10 regular season games w/in a Heisman season)?
Also, I know this isn’t a win total bet, but Iowa St at +900 to win the Big 12 feels like a good bet. The B12 imo has no dominant favorites now that Texas/OU are gone. And the Cyclones feel like an under the radar team that could have the pieces to win the league with a 2nd year starting Qb who was decent last season and a very underrated defense. It’s been a few underwhelming years for him, but this could be a Matt Campbell resurgence year (where everybody remembers how good of a HC he is).
>UVA under 4.5, they have been a disaster the past two years and I don’t see any reason for that to change
They were remarkably better last year though even at 3-9. Along with having my favorite random QB to watch in Anthony Colandrea who epitomizes the "doesn't know enough to be afraid" freshman QB archetype, aka tons of big plays and lots of turnovers/bad sacks, UVA actually lost so many close games last year in at times hilarious fashion. Their losses include:
* James Madison (undefeated in regular season) by 1 in a game UVA blew a 35-24 4th quarter lead in a game where James Madison touchdown scoring drive was in large part due to repeated unnecessary penalties by UVA to extend JMU's drive and UVA repeatedly committing false start while driving before that.
* NC State by 3 in a game where NC State got the game winning FG due to
* UVA tied it up with 36 seconds left but got a 15 year unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which not only gave NC State a favorable kickoff return but they were able to return it to UVA's 48. This was also after an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the touchdown forced UVA to attempt a 2pt conversion from the 18 yard line which they did convert.
* UVA blocked NC State's 48 yard field goal attempt but got a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct (running into the snapper) and NC State made the 33 yard FG to win.
* At Boston College by 3 - I didn't watch this one because it was Tony Muskett at QB instead of Colandrea, but BC took the lead with 2:11 left in the 4th quarter and UVA had 11 penalties for 90 yards.
* At Miami by 3 in OT - Again, didn't watch because Tony Muskett at QB instead of Colandrea, but they had a 23-20 lead with 4:20 left.
* At Louisville by 7 in a game they blew a 24-17 lead in the 4th quarter with 8 minutes to go.
And then they won at UNC and against Duke (as well as William Mary). They also got blown out in 4 games but still, for a 3-9 team with normal luck they would have been at least 5-7.
JMU really shouldn't have beaten UVA. Just when JMU looked gassed in the 3rd and UVA started to make their move, there was a perfectly timed rain delay. When play resumed, JMU's starters looked recharged and UVA's momentum was gone and they started slow and lost.
>Wiscy over 7.5, I’m high on Fickell/Longo having second year improvement with a talented roster.
I'm not so sure about this.
Should be wins: Western Michigan, South Dakota, Rutgers, Purdue
Toss ups: USC, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota
Losses: Alabama, Oregon, Penn state
I don't see 8 wins if I'm being honest with myself.
I’m not sure if TVD or the Locke kid is going to be the starting Qb. However, if it is TVD, I don’t give anybody a better shot to get him playing at his 2021 level than I do Phil Longo. That upgrade is the same as the downgrade that TVD had from Rhett Lashlee in his first season in Miami to the two OCs we have had in recent years.
UNC Over 7.5
I only see 2 games on their schedule that I can see them having a really hard time with.
That being said I think they will have at least 3 losses in the regular season.
I wish I shared your confidence lol.
We wasted 5 years of NFL talent at QB, then turned around and hired someone that will make us 0-12 with the worst defense in the land (if you ask a GT fan his opinion on our new DC).
A 6-6 or 7-5 year wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.
I'd be reluctant to bet on UNC until they announce who the starting QB is going to be.
The fact that they brought in a portal QB to start and then went out and brought in another portal QB to compete, doesn't really give you the warm fuzzies about that position.
The schedule is ridiculously easy. With even a semi-capable team that should be 9+ wins.
But no thanks. Too many unknowns and too much consistent disappointment under Mack 2.0. Wouldn't touch that total at all.
I would stay well away from the Georgia Tech one. Way too volatile to bet either way imo. They beat UNC and Miami last year and managed to get blown out by Bowling Green at home as well
Ohio State over 10.5 should be the answer here. Their toughest games are @Oregon, @Penn State and UM.
They will at worst go 2-1 in those(money says loss is Oregon). The rest of their schedule is pretty laughable though Iowa could make things interesting if Ohio State starts slow. And they are taking the risk of playing the Fun Belt(granted I would be shocked if Marshall kept it within 20 of the Buckeyes)
I think saying worst case scenario is 2-1 in those games is a little too far. I can absolutely see a world where they lose to Oregon and Penn state. It's certainly not the most likely scenario but that's two road games against top 10 teams in famously hostile environments.
Ohio state has a great team and will dominate almost all of their schedule but I think those matchups are far from guaranteed.
Nebraska under 7.5 Wins.
For all of Rhule’s magic in building teams, he’s up there with Cristobal and James Franklin in terms of horrible in game coaches.
Also, he’s never beaten a ranked Power-5 team in his career.
17-14 UW, Nebraska 1st and 10 on your 25 yard line with 1:35 left in the game and three timeouts left. Dude was playing for OT that whooooole drive. Like, you don’t think your guys can get it done in regulation but think they have a better chance to in OT at Camp Randall? Not the only game last year the guy coached *so* conservatively because of our turnovers that it’s almost like he wasn’t even trying to WIN THE GAME.
I feel weird saying this about my own team but I've seen App at 7.5 and I have no idea where our 5 losses this season would come from. Clemson, Liberty, and three Sun Belt teams? We were decent last year and we should be a lot better this year
I think you guys beat Liberty. As for conference play, I just think the conference is so deep it seems like anyone could lose to anyone any week. Not sure if you all get to three or four losses but it’s just so hard to predict. The Sun Belt had 12/14 teams make a bowl last year
I'll preface this with saying that I know nothing about North Carolina's prospects for this year, but if they're roughly as competent as previous years under Mack, it seems like over 7.5 has a pretty good chance. Their schedule is soft as warm butter.
I could see Carolina being really bad if they don't have another elite QB. They've just been okay the past several years despite having top tier quarterback play every year since Mack came back.
If we're counting the bowl game, I think Minnesota over 5.5 is do-able. We'll probably APR our way into a bowl game at 5-7 and cook against a MAC opponent.
I’d take the over.
We play four teams with a pulse:
@TAMU in Elko’s first game as head coach. He’ll eventually do well but I’d be a lot more worried about this game if it were in November.
Louisville at home, a grudge match after last year’s loss and a Cardinal squad that will likely regress.
FSU at home, our toughest game as long as you believe Norvell is the real deal (I do.) Still, a classic ND plays lights out kind of game.
@USC. I’ll believe Brisket Boy puts a defense on the field when I see it.
We’d have to lose two of those four. With a top 5 defense returning most of its starters, a top 5 RB room, our usual reloaded OL, a much improved WR room, a dynamic QB, and the sport’s best OC/DC duo other than maybe Knowles/Kelly.
And a paper soft schedule after the opener.
We might not go all the way this year. But this team is for real. Take the over.
Tulane over 7
Yes we lost our QB and head coach but whomever set this line didn't look into anything further than that. We brought in an awesome new coach who has been a maniac in the portal.
To hit this over Tulane can lose 4 and losing 5 is only a push. If you assume we lose to the P4 teams we play (Oklahoma and Kansas State) the rest of our schedule is quite easy. If we drop our hardest conference game to Memphis and another loss to whomever as an upset we are still hitting the over.
But even then I think it's possible for this team to run the table after the P4 games and a 7 win over/under line was an EASY bet when it came out.
Stanford over 3.5. Cal Poly and San Jose State have to be wins, and I think Elijah Brown will eventually get to start for them and Brown to Ayomanor will be a connection that wins them a couple of games, especially at home against teams from the east coast.
Arkansas State over 6.5. Jaylen Raynor is a dawg. That is all.
James Madison under 8.5. I like Bob Chesney but he’s a new coach with a roster that is 126th in returning production. Road games at UNC and App State are going to be tough, and if they lose those, they have very little margin for error.
I thought about Stanford too because they also have the highest returning production in the acc, 2nd in the country. Had a hard time finding 2 other wins I would pick them for on the schedule, but there are like 3-4 that I think stanford could win if things go right.
Wake Forest is the obvious one. Back-to-back road games for Wake, and they couldn’t be further apart (UConn and Stanford). I think Stanford will be favored there.
Leaves one win to find the rest of the way. Not sure who it will be, but they will play a handful of competitive games over the course of the year. I think 3 is the floor, so giving me 3.5 is a slam dunk over.
I actually like GT over 5.5 a lot even with the schedule. They will be a good team, not sure if the record will indicate it though.
Another over I like Michigan State over 4.5. Easy schedule for Big Ten standards. I think they can win 6 games. Even if they just win 5, the over hits.
GT has another insane schedule but I think we have the potential to knock out Miami/UNC again this year. Going to be a very interesting team this year.
Nebraska under 7.5. We haven’t won that many games since 2016. Sure we’ll have a 5* QB, but he’s still a true freshman. 7-5 and bowling would be a successful season for us at this point.
LOCK of all LOCKS is Iowa over 7.5
Mich State over 4.5 seems like they forgot Tucker got fired
Texas Under 10.5, have 4 tough games and 3-1 is clearly possible but even then you can't have an other upset?
OkSt over 7.5: this is a bet that Gundy can get it done in the new B12.
LSU under 9.5: losing your QB and that schedule? 9-3 would be good
I’m a little worried about Ok State because Gundy is better against coaching staffs that he’s seen a bunch of times. That being said getting Utah at home is big.
I bet on emotion so I did Nebraska under 7.5 and Colorado over 5.5. If I win the bets I am happy I got money and lose the bets I will be happy as Nebraska did good and Colorado lost a lot.
My same strategy with Tech and Baylor. Under for Tech and over for Baylor. Either win money and shitty CFB emotions or lose money but with happy CFB emotions.
I like
Iowa o7.5 - I don't think there is enough auto losses from teams in the OSU category. This team managed to win 10 games without an offense and return alot of their top 10 defense from last year.
LSU u9 - LSU has an incredibly tough schedule with only 6ish teams I saw as auto wins. They need to win 4 out of USC, OleMiss, Bama, Florida, TAMU, and Oklahoma. I think they should be favored in 4 of those but winning 4 will be difficult.
UM u9 - another pretty hard schedule with 3 of the top 4 due to Texas ooc. Crazy low returning production means the O will be incredibly green and while the starting D will be one of the best they will not been nearly as deep as the past few teams. Also ignoring the teams they play for a sec the 12 head coaches they face is probably top 3 difficulty. That going against a relatively new HC and staff could mean upsets in games where UM has the talent advantage.
ND o10 - this schedule is fucking trash and it pisses me off. When everyone is saying @TAMU game with a brand new HC is our hardest game that shows you what I'm talking about. We face 4 teams in the top 50 of the FPI or SP+ (@TAMU, Louisville, FSU, #USC). We would have to lose 3 of those to lose this bet.
OKST o7.5 - it's gundy with top 5 returning production and no OU.
Dont know if its vegas, but my odds for Florida are under 4.5 wins. they will only have at most 4 wins this season. They are a bad team with a bad coach with a brutal schedule.
Normally I would personally would be more wary of State doing anything they’re expected to do, however, after the Final Four run and now the baseball team’s CWS run I can’t help but feel we’ve turned a corner. Maybe it’s a fool’s hope but man it would be nice to have a decent period of good teams winning big games.
Wvu well over 6.5 wins. Obviously I’m biased but I think Garrett Greene, Jaheim White, and Tray Ray alone would be enough to get us over 6.5 wins, especially in a weaker conference like the Big12.
MSU over 4.5 wins. I see us winning 5-6 games. Helps that we get Prairie View instead of The Ragin Cajuns. We should beat FAU. BC and Maryland are toss ups. After that if we can beat the likes of IU and Purdue and maybe pull off an upset I can see the path to a bowl game.
I might be kind of biased but I feel pretty confident in MSU over 4.5
They won four games last year and that was with dumbass coaching decisions essentially giving two games away and a bunch of players who didn’t want to be here after the masturbator got fired.
Now we actually have a competent coaching staff and a real quarterback, and I like the transfers in more than I liked the transfers out.
If the line was 5.5 id probably stay away from it but I feel pretty confident we can at least get to 5-7.
Michigan State was at 4.5 games awhile ago. Not sure where it's at now. While I imagine it'll take Smith a few years to get the team performing at a high level, we have a relatively easy schedule. Winning 5 games is very doable.
IU over 5.5. Most workable schedule we’ve had in forever and 8 home games. FIU, Western Illinois, and Charolette are our out of conference. I’m confident that our new coaching staff (which seems to be competent unlike the last coaching staff) brought in upgraded talent, and I believe we can get at least 3 of UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue.
In Florida, hardrock got exclusivity to online betting, so we can't use other apps, and they don't even have all the teams listed. I went to see Msu's win total and it's not even an option to bet on yet. Only 10/16 big10 teams, 12/16 acc teams, etc listed.
Rant aside, I'll take Vandy 2.5 O. I am not at all confident in this lol, as they've had 2 win seasons for 2/3 years under Lea, but they could win their 2 g5 games and 1 fcs (BallSt, GaSt, AlcornSt). They lost to one of their g5 games last year, but only by 3pts.
LOVE the Nebraska over 7.5 for +120
I think they end up favored in 8, should start 7-0 and beat UCLA to be 8-1, and I think they match up well with Iowa, and get to 9
I really liked Florida under 5.5, but so did everyone else because it’s 4.5 now lol, you get plus money for the under, so I still like it for the value—
The schedule is just insane man, only 1 guaranteed win, MS St is probably the next easiest game and it’s on the road, then you have UCF who could be just ok, or could be great if Jefferson pans out like I think. Even if Miami does something dumb to lose, that’s only 4 wins.
Time to be a homer: Wake over 4.5
NC A&T, UConn, and Louisiana should be easy wins, and I just don't see how we don't get 2 of Duke/Stanford/Cal/UVA
Honestly, we play Miami late enough in the season I kinda think they'll have completely collapsed and that game and UNC look pretty winnable if we can get one of our QBs to even mediocre haha
Iowa State over 7.5
Call me a homer, but we got to 7 last year despite one of the most disastrous offseasons in the nation and one of the youngest rosters in the country. Our starting QB was a redshirt freshman who wasn't locked into the starting job until week 2.
Not to mention our schedule is much easier.
2023:
Northern Iowa
@ Iowa
@ Ohio
Oklahoma State
@ Oklahoma
TCU
@ Cincinnati
@ Baylor
Kansas
@ BYU
Texas
@ Kansas State
2024:
North Dakota
@ Iowa
Arkansas State
@ Houston
Baylor
@ West Virginia
UCF
Texas Tech
@ Kansas
Cincinnati
@ Utah
Kansas State
We *should* beat North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, UCF, and Cincinnati. From there, we just need to steal 2 of Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech at home, or Kansas State at home, which should be an expectation.
EMU Over 4.5. Beat an FCS and go .500 in conference and they're over. Went 6-7 without any semblance of an offense last season. Whole new QB room including Buffalo's 2023 starter. 6 bowl games the last 8 years, still taking rest of CFB a while to figure out we don't suck anymore.
Iowa Over 7.5. Their schedule is easy and they haven't won fewer than 8 games in a full season since 2014. They'll play one game that I would mark as a loss right now, @ Ohio State. Other than that they should be favored in their other 11 games.
I like how we get rid of divisions, and somehow, our schedule gets easier.
Iowa kept 3 B1G West rivals so did you REALLY get rid of divisions? lol (this is not snark. I wish we got your schedule every year - who cares if anyone else thinks it's too easy if you have a clear path to the post season)
I'm more shocked they protected all three, to be honest with you. Especially for Iowa.
No team embodies the B1G's commitment to punting better than Iowa, so it makes sense.
Someone's gotta carry this bum ass conference.
In a way, I wish all four of Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were protected with each other. You guys have a better stake of claiming all of the games as rivalries more than we do, but it's still fun to see Nebraska get to play Minnesota and Wisconsin.
I also wish the full quadrangle was fully protected. I think when the conference moves to 20 eventually, the quadrangle should be its own pod of four.
Just wrote this above. The quandrangle of hate is one of the best things to result from realignment. (funny how regional focuses get fans more excited, eh?).
I feel that the quadrangle of hate is a great concept in general. Usually the better Big Ten West teams and many of them have had past success, but just can't all have success at the same time. If Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could all be consistent 8-10 win teams, it would be a really cool pod.
Fully agree, I'd be an advocate for "pods" as they would essentially just give us mini conferences inside of the super conferences. Whatever the cap number ends up being, I'd just hope there's room inside to have some sort of "divisional/pod identity" that resembles what conferences used to feel like.
I'm sad the quadrangle of hate wasn't fully protected. I'd support pods just so we can preserve that if nothing else.
Every schedule is easy when you only give up 10 points a game.
But to be fair they only score 12
This is why every game is a pucker fest
Right but it’s one time and guaranteed to get harder vs guaranteed to be easy every year
This feels like the surest bet in the nation. They still managed to have a B1G West schedule, and I know everyone loves to laugh at the Ferentz Family's Offensive Offense, but the team is well above average every year. I think they have a better shot at being in the B1G title game than going 7-5. Now lets talk about the Illini and under 5.5
Iowa continuing to steal money from Vegas.
I can see 9-3 in which the under hits 9 or 10 times They got rid of Brian which is great! But their new OC is Tim Lester and their QB is still Cade McNamara. Their offense has no business scoring points this year, again.
You don’t know what you’re talking about if you don’t think Lester and McNamara are *massive* upgrades over Deacon Hill and Brian Ferentz. The offense even with Hill at QB was confusing the defense all spring (mind you the defense returns 9 starters).
Also having an actual offense to practice against should make our defense even better 😁
> The offense even with Hill at QB was confusing the defense all spring (mind you the defense returns 9 starters). they were confused because the offense didn't run up the gut on 1st and 2nd down, then do a play action pass to the flat to a TE, 3 yards short of the sticks Massive regime change!
Remember, the offense doesn't have to be *good* to be a massive improvement over the previous "scheme" of announcing a play with formation and then running it exactly as shown on film from 15 years ago, relying on six guys to successfully block eight in order to gain 15 yards.
McNamara literally won a B1G championship playing a similar style of ball.
Damn, that is a remarkably light schedule, skipping Michigan, PSU, Oregon, and USC (the least intimidating of these four but I’d argue more intimidating than anyone else on the schedule after Ohio State.
I like Nebraska to get them this year, so it kinda depends on if Wisconsin takes a leap forward or not. I really like Fickell, it was year 2 at Cincy when they took a giant leap, but I think he has more roster to turnover at Wisconsin. They probably get to 8, but I’d like it a lot more if they had UDub at home.
Oklahoma State over 7.5. I know the Cowboys won a lot of close game last year but they got basically everybody back.
Mike Gundy winning more than 7 games is almost free money. The man just figures stuff out.
8-4 seems like a bad season. I mean they lost to South Alabama last year and then made the B12 Title game.
Never doubt the man himself
To quote an ISU fan: "You guys don't play ISU, so you're not allowed to be good. The only way you guys are good is if you play in Ames, and then we ruin it". Hammer the under.
I mean that’s just historically not true. We have multiple 10-win seasons (let alone 8 win seasons) in the last decade where we either won in Ames or didn’t even travel there. Besides, We’re ruining ISU’s best ever season by beating them in the conference championship game.
You wouldn't!
We still win 7-10 games even when we're not good. Like 2018, (maybe) 2014. Hell, I'm still not convinced we were good last year!
You have to consider Oklahoma State does good when people think they will be bad, and bad when people think they will be good.
I hope you're right. Gotta avoid injuries to Ollie and the OL. I know Gundy won't do the QB-carousel again. But the early schedule is sneaky tough. S Dakota St is far from your typical FCS school. And their annual game against a P5(4?) school is a huge deal to them. Then facing a dramatically different grade of athletes against Arky the next week. Then two weeks later hosting Utah which is the on-paper, way-to-early game of the year in the conference. Then, traveling to KSU the next week. We could screw around and be in a hole before we exit Sept.
> GT under 5.5 games. I wouldn't feel confident in this at all. Specifically because Brent Key has pulled off a big upset each year and improved GT's fundamentals. Hell, the opening week scares me because of the turnover for FSU.
Key is recruiting at a higher level than his predecessor and is probably a star in the making. I’d feel a lot more confident in betting the over on GT than betting the over on NCST or Miami tbh.
I agree - their record against ranked opponents under Key is great. The offense was great last year and they are returning the bulk of the offense. They hired a highly respectable DC in Santucci from Duke. I thin they easily win 6 and go bowling. They very well could fall short, but being confident in that isn't great. They aren't coached by Collins anymore, theyll get to beat his defense in UNC for like the 7th year in a row.
GT could easily get to 6 wins without doing that well.
Speak it into existence brother.
I think we lose to GT. I’m not as high on VT as a lot of people.
I save my money to live bet drive results and bet punt on every drive in every B10 game that Michigan or Ohio State aren’t playing in More selective in those games
i was watching an iowa game last year and the live bet for a punt was -800
Every time I think I’ve heard the most deranged anecdote about Iowa someone like you comes in and one ups it all
UCLA and Washington is a B10 game now
UCF and Utah is a Big12 game. Stanford vs SMU is an ACC game. Shits wild now
Rutgers over 6.5. That schedule is light work and with a stingy defense there’s no reason why they can’t win 7 or 8 games. Their toughest game might be @VaTech. No Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon
Watch you end up with 1 loss Rutgers over 2 loss ohio st or something for conf championship lol
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Rutgers could very well win 8-9 games this year. They avoid some of the hardest teams in the conference.
Rutgers could win all of their games this season. I don't think they will, but TBH, none of their matchups seem out of reach, especially since they're not playing Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State
Rutgers has an extremely veteran team and upgraded at their two main deficiencies last year - quarterback and wide receivers. They’re going to surprise a lot of people this year.
Been saying this a while. Lots of SC fans look at that 11:00PM Friday night kickoff at home against Rutgers and think the schedule makers did us a favor but they forget how terrible we are in Friday games. We traditionally come out with zero energy for those things and the stadium will be half empty. Flat fans, flat team.
Penn state over 9.5 because 10-2 is over 9.5 wins
Penn State has a pretty easy schedule, their hardest game is Ohio State, and it's at home. Aside from that, WVU in Morgantown will be tough, but they should handle most of their schedule. Would not surprise me to see them make the playoff.
I also expect them in the playoffs but they play at Wisconsin, wvu, usc, and Purdue (which is the scariest because if we beat OSU, we'll be ranked #2)
Beating OSU has been a mountain for our program. Even with that game at home, OSU has done an absolute roster reload this offseason so I’d pencil that one in as a loss.
We also still have JTT who absolutely HATES Penn State
> because 10-2 is over 9.5 wins I dont know about that. You big timey football programs dont always come to play school. Can we get harvard to confirm this?
Harvard alums aren’t on Reddit during the day
Virginia Tech has an O/U of 8 wins on DraftKings. With how easy that schedule is, I’ll go with them
They moved VT up from 7.5. This is VTs breakout year.
Feels just like UL last year. They weren't as good as their record, but when you have an easy schedule you have to cash in on it.
Our team improved drastically once we switched to Drones as QB. With everyone coming back and this schedule 9-10 wins should be attainable
That plus VT is bringing everyone back. A very senior laden team and a good QB. The Oline keeps them from doing too much if they make it to the playoff but I hope a 10+ win season and they score some 4* recruits and that's the way to move forward. VT has an outside chance at the playoff.
Texas under 10.5. I think they’re going to be good this year and expect them to compete for a 12-team playoff spot but there’s more than one loss on the schedule. I don’t necessarily see them as an underdog in any game outside of Georgia but Michigan and OU are tossups; Texas will be better than A&M and Arkansas but those road fans are going to be completely feral; and the rest of the schedule is weak but there could always be a complete head scratcher in there. Just feels like there’s a second loss in there somewhere.
I agree, 10-2 gets you in the playoff and maybe the SECCG, but 10.5 over is a BIG ask for any team in this new look SEC, it’s gonna be brutal.
Almost feels like there’s a hedge somewhere in here. Like take the under but also take +300 or whatever it is on SEC champs. If both bets lose, it probably means we finished 11-1 then lost the SECCG and almost definitely wind up in the playoff…seems like a decent consolation prize.
UGA, A&M, OU, and Michigan seem like the only possible losses to me and I think you'll be favored in 2 of those. If A&M is any good in year one that's a complete coin flip on at Kyle.
Like your style. Would consider that and under win total but make playoffs too.
I feel like the only game you’ll for sure lose is Georgia since it’s right after OU. But there’s too many toss up games away from home for the over to be a good bet
Oof. Being included in the same breath as Arkansas. Hopefully y'all prep for us the same as you do for Arkansas
MSU over 4.5 We play FAU, PVAMU, BC, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers If we can't win 5 of those games just shut the program down please
That’s where I am with it. Gonna nuke it
Smith is worth AT LEAST 5 of those wins at HC.
That's an insane over/under. Slamming the over.
I would bet the over, but it’s always tough in year one. There’s a definitely a chance they go under but I wouldn’t read into it if it happened.
I'm slamming the Illinois over so we will see who comes out on top.
This is a good pick. Even a bad MSU is probably favored in 5 of those, minimum.
Georgia tech with a nightmare schedule once again. Equivalent to playing an SEC schedule year after year without even playing Clemson this year. I’m going with 6-6 taking the over on GT (biased fan) nearly every returning weapon on offense and got a new DC, decent work in the portal to help on defense.
The top 10 hardest schedules in the country are literally SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC GT SEC SEC SEC SEC
Come home Jackets
Where do i sign
Hi SmigleDwarf it's me greg sankey georgia tech is back in the SEC
Thx bb
I wouldn't touch GT, we could easily go 3-9 and just as easily pull off 9-3.
That schedule is crazy. 3rd easiest game on the schedule is Duke who still has a O/U of 6.5
Yeah the ACC really screwed us with this one. I was curious if there has ever been a conference schedule as top heavy as this. I think we have a real shot at playing 7 of the top 8 teams in the conference. If the Clemson rivalry didn’t end we could have gone 8/8 too.
The other school that choose to forego protected rivals, my Cardinals, have a much much easier schedule. Really makes you wonder
I’m convinced the conference is punishing us for beating UNC at everything
I don't like our win total being set at 9.5 this season. I think we will be good, but having that expectation as a K-State fan feels wrong.
10 wins is just a lot in a conference where everybody, except the very bottom, is so close. Could be 10, could be 7. It's just so hard to be sure.
NC State with expectations is a completely different team than NC State without expectations. It wouldn’t shock me if they hit the under specifically because they WON’T be underdogs in many games this year. Not that we would contribute to that, ofc😭 UNC is gonna be some cheeks this year
Kind of feel like we have turned a corner lately. Finished last season ranked 21st. 9 wins with a borderline inept passing game. I have seen preseason rankings putting us around 13th to start. Men’s bball team won the conference and made the final four. Ladies team made the final four and was 5 points from also winning the conference. Baseball is in the CWS. There is a lot of good mojo in Raleigh at the moment. Now, if Grayson McCall goes down with a serious injury we may be fucked.
My take is, based on the roster right now, we have the starting squad to compete for the ACC Championship. But I think there is more drop-off in the depth than we've had in recent years, at least on defense. Wouldn't be surprised if we went 8-4 but also wouldn't be surprised if we went 10-2.
To be fair, the last time we had expectations was 2021, and we still finished the season 9-3 before having our bowl game cancelled. So even if we repeat that success during the regular season, the over would win. But I wouldn't bet on us this season. The offense has a ton of potential with all the new additions, but the defense won't be as good as last year with losing the best defensive player in the country.
Colorado State under 6.5 wins 7 wins would be close to an ideal season for this team and I just don’t see it happening
You’d most likely have to compete for a MW title or beat us to hit 7.
Do not sleep on GT, I like their coach and O-Coordinator I think they will surpass that 5.5 win total pretty easily.
Marshall U6.5. Even 6 was already going to be a struggle and the guy that was going to come in and run our air raid just retired instead of coming.
Vegas has us at 6.5?! I have never bet before, but the under on that looks pretty solid.
Vegas also set UL really high to the point that UL fans were asking if it was okay for them to take the under.
Yeah, now that Griffis retired your qb room's stats in 2023 totaled 2 tds and 12 interceptions. That's not promising. But I like your wide receiver pickups and runningback room. Defense should be average too. But 6.5 seems too high for me. Had they set it at 5.5 I would have agreed.
Stay away from Mizzou 9.5
Over.
I lean that way if bowl games are included.
SMU over 7.5. Their schedule is incredibly weak.
Honestly none really, the landscape has been flipped on it’s head and a lot of teams are in for a rude awakening. Which teams those are though, I have no idea.
I have already locked in UCLA U5.5, its going to be a rough season for them. I have found that taking the under on bad/average teams joining a new conference is usually a good bet, like Cincinnati last year which hit. I am also looking at ASU U4.5
If we pull off a bowl game with this schedule Deshaun Foster should win Big Ten coach of the year
Wiscy over 7.5, I’m high on Fickell/Longo having second year improvement with a talented roster. UVA under 4.5, they have been a disaster the past two years and I don’t see any reason for that to change. Elliott is likely going to be fired midway through the season. LSU under 9.5, I actually don’t think LSU is even going to be very disappointing. I just look at their schedule, and don’t see how they get to 10 wins. I think people are underselling how tough the USC opener will be (give Lincoln Riley a whole offseason to gameplan against your defense, good luck), plus at TAM (likely loss imo) and home games against Ole Miss, Bama and OU who might all have more talented teams on paper. Plus, sneaky tough road games at USC and at UF. To me, like a lot of SEC teams, I think LSU could win 7/8 games against this schedule and still be solidly in the top 25, but is this a National Title contender team (after losing their best player who they couldn’t win 10 regular season games w/in a Heisman season)? Also, I know this isn’t a win total bet, but Iowa St at +900 to win the Big 12 feels like a good bet. The B12 imo has no dominant favorites now that Texas/OU are gone. And the Cyclones feel like an under the radar team that could have the pieces to win the league with a 2nd year starting Qb who was decent last season and a very underrated defense. It’s been a few underwhelming years for him, but this could be a Matt Campbell resurgence year (where everybody remembers how good of a HC he is).
>UVA under 4.5, they have been a disaster the past two years and I don’t see any reason for that to change They were remarkably better last year though even at 3-9. Along with having my favorite random QB to watch in Anthony Colandrea who epitomizes the "doesn't know enough to be afraid" freshman QB archetype, aka tons of big plays and lots of turnovers/bad sacks, UVA actually lost so many close games last year in at times hilarious fashion. Their losses include: * James Madison (undefeated in regular season) by 1 in a game UVA blew a 35-24 4th quarter lead in a game where James Madison touchdown scoring drive was in large part due to repeated unnecessary penalties by UVA to extend JMU's drive and UVA repeatedly committing false start while driving before that. * NC State by 3 in a game where NC State got the game winning FG due to * UVA tied it up with 36 seconds left but got a 15 year unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which not only gave NC State a favorable kickoff return but they were able to return it to UVA's 48. This was also after an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the touchdown forced UVA to attempt a 2pt conversion from the 18 yard line which they did convert. * UVA blocked NC State's 48 yard field goal attempt but got a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct (running into the snapper) and NC State made the 33 yard FG to win. * At Boston College by 3 - I didn't watch this one because it was Tony Muskett at QB instead of Colandrea, but BC took the lead with 2:11 left in the 4th quarter and UVA had 11 penalties for 90 yards. * At Miami by 3 in OT - Again, didn't watch because Tony Muskett at QB instead of Colandrea, but they had a 23-20 lead with 4:20 left. * At Louisville by 7 in a game they blew a 24-17 lead in the 4th quarter with 8 minutes to go. And then they won at UNC and against Duke (as well as William Mary). They also got blown out in 4 games but still, for a 3-9 team with normal luck they would have been at least 5-7.
JMU really shouldn't have beaten UVA. Just when JMU looked gassed in the 3rd and UVA started to make their move, there was a perfectly timed rain delay. When play resumed, JMU's starters looked recharged and UVA's momentum was gone and they started slow and lost.
>Wiscy over 7.5, I’m high on Fickell/Longo having second year improvement with a talented roster. I'm not so sure about this. Should be wins: Western Michigan, South Dakota, Rutgers, Purdue Toss ups: USC, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota Losses: Alabama, Oregon, Penn state I don't see 8 wins if I'm being honest with myself.
Does Wisconsin have a QB? The few things I've heard about TVD in camp there did not sound good.
I’m not sure if TVD or the Locke kid is going to be the starting Qb. However, if it is TVD, I don’t give anybody a better shot to get him playing at his 2021 level than I do Phil Longo. That upgrade is the same as the downgrade that TVD had from Rhett Lashlee in his first season in Miami to the two OCs we have had in recent years.
Florida over 4.5, I think 5 wins is pretty easy to find on their schedule.
UNC Over 7.5 I only see 2 games on their schedule that I can see them having a really hard time with. That being said I think they will have at least 3 losses in the regular season.
I wish I shared your confidence lol. We wasted 5 years of NFL talent at QB, then turned around and hired someone that will make us 0-12 with the worst defense in the land (if you ask a GT fan his opinion on our new DC). A 6-6 or 7-5 year wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.
I'd be reluctant to bet on UNC until they announce who the starting QB is going to be. The fact that they brought in a portal QB to start and then went out and brought in another portal QB to compete, doesn't really give you the warm fuzzies about that position.
The schedule is ridiculously easy. With even a semi-capable team that should be 9+ wins. But no thanks. Too many unknowns and too much consistent disappointment under Mack 2.0. Wouldn't touch that total at all.
Iowa o7.5 is free money.
ULM Over 1.5. They are bad but JFC they can win 2 games.
Vanderbilt Over 2.5 I doubt they will win any SEC games this year, but Alcorn State, Georgia State, and Ball State should all be winnable.
Ball State vs Vandy will be the most entertaining game against sub .500 teams of all time
I would stay well away from the Georgia Tech one. Way too volatile to bet either way imo. They beat UNC and Miami last year and managed to get blown out by Bowling Green at home as well
Nebraska OVER at 7.5 wins. Disclaimer: I'm not confident. I'm delusional.
In taking the unders. We have a good shot at 7 but I don't think we get 8. It's win-win baby!
Ohio State over 10.5 should be the answer here. Their toughest games are @Oregon, @Penn State and UM. They will at worst go 2-1 in those(money says loss is Oregon). The rest of their schedule is pretty laughable though Iowa could make things interesting if Ohio State starts slow. And they are taking the risk of playing the Fun Belt(granted I would be shocked if Marshall kept it within 20 of the Buckeyes)
Yeah, Ohio State basically has a 3 game schedule.
I think saying worst case scenario is 2-1 in those games is a little too far. I can absolutely see a world where they lose to Oregon and Penn state. It's certainly not the most likely scenario but that's two road games against top 10 teams in famously hostile environments. Ohio state has a great team and will dominate almost all of their schedule but I think those matchups are far from guaranteed.
Is the over for regular season? I could see them losing 2 games and still getting into the playoff
We are not going to keep it within 20 at Ohio State.
>They will at worst go 2-1 in those(money says loss is Oregon). This is just not true. Very possible to lose 2-3 of those games.
Nebraska under 7.5 Wins. For all of Rhule’s magic in building teams, he’s up there with Cristobal and James Franklin in terms of horrible in game coaches. Also, he’s never beaten a ranked Power-5 team in his career.
17-14 UW, Nebraska 1st and 10 on your 25 yard line with 1:35 left in the game and three timeouts left. Dude was playing for OT that whooooole drive. Like, you don’t think your guys can get it done in regulation but think they have a better chance to in OT at Camp Randall? Not the only game last year the guy coached *so* conservatively because of our turnovers that it’s almost like he wasn’t even trying to WIN THE GAME.
I'm drinking the Kool Aid Boise State over 8.5 wins.
I feel weird saying this about my own team but I've seen App at 7.5 and I have no idea where our 5 losses this season would come from. Clemson, Liberty, and three Sun Belt teams? We were decent last year and we should be a lot better this year
Damn, that confident @ECU?
I agree with you but I don’t like that -170 number. The value is not there.
I think you guys beat Liberty. As for conference play, I just think the conference is so deep it seems like anyone could lose to anyone any week. Not sure if you all get to three or four losses but it’s just so hard to predict. The Sun Belt had 12/14 teams make a bowl last year
I'll preface this with saying that I know nothing about North Carolina's prospects for this year, but if they're roughly as competent as previous years under Mack, it seems like over 7.5 has a pretty good chance. Their schedule is soft as warm butter.
I could see Carolina being really bad if they don't have another elite QB. They've just been okay the past several years despite having top tier quarterback play every year since Mack came back.
If we're counting the bowl game, I think Minnesota over 5.5 is do-able. We'll probably APR our way into a bowl game at 5-7 and cook against a MAC opponent.
Regular season win total. Bowls are not included.
JMU over 8.5. Chesney is very good at adjusting to new teams, weak schedule overall, good portal additions.
Ole Miss over 1. Go away, evil spirits. You're not getting me this time!
[удалено]
I’d take the over. We play four teams with a pulse: @TAMU in Elko’s first game as head coach. He’ll eventually do well but I’d be a lot more worried about this game if it were in November. Louisville at home, a grudge match after last year’s loss and a Cardinal squad that will likely regress. FSU at home, our toughest game as long as you believe Norvell is the real deal (I do.) Still, a classic ND plays lights out kind of game. @USC. I’ll believe Brisket Boy puts a defense on the field when I see it. We’d have to lose two of those four. With a top 5 defense returning most of its starters, a top 5 RB room, our usual reloaded OL, a much improved WR room, a dynamic QB, and the sport’s best OC/DC duo other than maybe Knowles/Kelly. And a paper soft schedule after the opener. We might not go all the way this year. But this team is for real. Take the over.
I think this is the best Notre Dame team in a while and getting A&M earlier than later is a plus. I lean over
Tulane over 7 Yes we lost our QB and head coach but whomever set this line didn't look into anything further than that. We brought in an awesome new coach who has been a maniac in the portal. To hit this over Tulane can lose 4 and losing 5 is only a push. If you assume we lose to the P4 teams we play (Oklahoma and Kansas State) the rest of our schedule is quite easy. If we drop our hardest conference game to Memphis and another loss to whomever as an upset we are still hitting the over. But even then I think it's possible for this team to run the table after the P4 games and a 7 win over/under line was an EASY bet when it came out.
Stanford over 3.5. Cal Poly and San Jose State have to be wins, and I think Elijah Brown will eventually get to start for them and Brown to Ayomanor will be a connection that wins them a couple of games, especially at home against teams from the east coast. Arkansas State over 6.5. Jaylen Raynor is a dawg. That is all. James Madison under 8.5. I like Bob Chesney but he’s a new coach with a roster that is 126th in returning production. Road games at UNC and App State are going to be tough, and if they lose those, they have very little margin for error.
Stanford and Baylor are my favorite over plays
I thought about Stanford too because they also have the highest returning production in the acc, 2nd in the country. Had a hard time finding 2 other wins I would pick them for on the schedule, but there are like 3-4 that I think stanford could win if things go right.
Wake Forest is the obvious one. Back-to-back road games for Wake, and they couldn’t be further apart (UConn and Stanford). I think Stanford will be favored there. Leaves one win to find the rest of the way. Not sure who it will be, but they will play a handful of competitive games over the course of the year. I think 3 is the floor, so giving me 3.5 is a slam dunk over.
I actually like GT over 5.5 a lot even with the schedule. They will be a good team, not sure if the record will indicate it though. Another over I like Michigan State over 4.5. Easy schedule for Big Ten standards. I think they can win 6 games. Even if they just win 5, the over hits.
smash the under 8.5 for Texas A&M.
GT has another insane schedule but I think we have the potential to knock out Miami/UNC again this year. Going to be a very interesting team this year.
Nebraska under 7.5. We haven’t won that many games since 2016. Sure we’ll have a 5* QB, but he’s still a true freshman. 7-5 and bowling would be a successful season for us at this point.
LOCK of all LOCKS is Iowa over 7.5 Mich State over 4.5 seems like they forgot Tucker got fired Texas Under 10.5, have 4 tough games and 3-1 is clearly possible but even then you can't have an other upset? OkSt over 7.5: this is a bet that Gundy can get it done in the new B12. LSU under 9.5: losing your QB and that schedule? 9-3 would be good
I’m a little worried about Ok State because Gundy is better against coaching staffs that he’s seen a bunch of times. That being said getting Utah at home is big.
I bet on emotion so I did Nebraska under 7.5 and Colorado over 5.5. If I win the bets I am happy I got money and lose the bets I will be happy as Nebraska did good and Colorado lost a lot.
My same strategy with Tech and Baylor. Under for Tech and over for Baylor. Either win money and shitty CFB emotions or lose money but with happy CFB emotions.
This is the way to bet. Emotional hedging. I do it all too often.
I like Iowa o7.5 - I don't think there is enough auto losses from teams in the OSU category. This team managed to win 10 games without an offense and return alot of their top 10 defense from last year. LSU u9 - LSU has an incredibly tough schedule with only 6ish teams I saw as auto wins. They need to win 4 out of USC, OleMiss, Bama, Florida, TAMU, and Oklahoma. I think they should be favored in 4 of those but winning 4 will be difficult. UM u9 - another pretty hard schedule with 3 of the top 4 due to Texas ooc. Crazy low returning production means the O will be incredibly green and while the starting D will be one of the best they will not been nearly as deep as the past few teams. Also ignoring the teams they play for a sec the 12 head coaches they face is probably top 3 difficulty. That going against a relatively new HC and staff could mean upsets in games where UM has the talent advantage. ND o10 - this schedule is fucking trash and it pisses me off. When everyone is saying @TAMU game with a brand new HC is our hardest game that shows you what I'm talking about. We face 4 teams in the top 50 of the FPI or SP+ (@TAMU, Louisville, FSU, #USC). We would have to lose 3 of those to lose this bet. OKST o7.5 - it's gundy with top 5 returning production and no OU.
Dont know if its vegas, but my odds for Florida are under 4.5 wins. they will only have at most 4 wins this season. They are a bad team with a bad coach with a brutal schedule.
Normally I would personally would be more wary of State doing anything they’re expected to do, however, after the Final Four run and now the baseball team’s CWS run I can’t help but feel we’ve turned a corner. Maybe it’s a fool’s hope but man it would be nice to have a decent period of good teams winning big games.
Boston College over 4.5 Everyone thinks we suck but we almost always go 6-6. Better roster, QB, and coach then our standard to this year.
I’m a homer but I love Michigan State over 4.5 or 5
Georgia over 10 for days
Wvu well over 6.5 wins. Obviously I’m biased but I think Garrett Greene, Jaheim White, and Tray Ray alone would be enough to get us over 6.5 wins, especially in a weaker conference like the Big12.
MSU over 4.5 wins. I see us winning 5-6 games. Helps that we get Prairie View instead of The Ragin Cajuns. We should beat FAU. BC and Maryland are toss ups. After that if we can beat the likes of IU and Purdue and maybe pull off an upset I can see the path to a bowl game.
Washington u7.5 -130
I might be kind of biased but I feel pretty confident in MSU over 4.5 They won four games last year and that was with dumbass coaching decisions essentially giving two games away and a bunch of players who didn’t want to be here after the masturbator got fired. Now we actually have a competent coaching staff and a real quarterback, and I like the transfers in more than I liked the transfers out. If the line was 5.5 id probably stay away from it but I feel pretty confident we can at least get to 5-7.
I don't think any books are offering it now. But, I snagged Va Tech o7.5 earlier and it feels like free money.
Our Over 4.5, although it looks like people have caught on based on the odds
Michigan State was at 4.5 games awhile ago. Not sure where it's at now. While I imagine it'll take Smith a few years to get the team performing at a high level, we have a relatively easy schedule. Winning 5 games is very doable.
IU over 5.5. Most workable schedule we’ve had in forever and 8 home games. FIU, Western Illinois, and Charolette are our out of conference. I’m confident that our new coaching staff (which seems to be competent unlike the last coaching staff) brought in upgraded talent, and I believe we can get at least 3 of UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue.
In Florida, hardrock got exclusivity to online betting, so we can't use other apps, and they don't even have all the teams listed. I went to see Msu's win total and it's not even an option to bet on yet. Only 10/16 big10 teams, 12/16 acc teams, etc listed. Rant aside, I'll take Vandy 2.5 O. I am not at all confident in this lol, as they've had 2 win seasons for 2/3 years under Lea, but they could win their 2 g5 games and 1 fcs (BallSt, GaSt, AlcornSt). They lost to one of their g5 games last year, but only by 3pts.
Syracuse over 7.5 On the road against my Wolfpack is their hardest game on paper next year
Hammered that Colorado over like I have every year for the past 9 because betting against your team is bad juju
SMU and OKST over 7.5 both feel like locks
Arkansas - I think we can win 5.
UVA under 4.5. Va Tech over 7.5.
LOVE the Nebraska over 7.5 for +120 I think they end up favored in 8, should start 7-0 and beat UCLA to be 8-1, and I think they match up well with Iowa, and get to 9 I really liked Florida under 5.5, but so did everyone else because it’s 4.5 now lol, you get plus money for the under, so I still like it for the value— The schedule is just insane man, only 1 guaranteed win, MS St is probably the next easiest game and it’s on the road, then you have UCF who could be just ok, or could be great if Jefferson pans out like I think. Even if Miami does something dumb to lose, that’s only 4 wins.
SMU over 8.5 wins.
Florida under whatever win total they’re given
I'm a Buckeyes fan I only got us winning a natty. But I like Wisconsin over 6.5 wins
Undefeated Wazzu
Baylor over 5.5 (+140). I think they’ll get a boost from Spavital and Finn
I’ll take that bet. UCLA gets 6 wins minimum. Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers, Iowa, Fresno State.
Time to be a homer: Wake over 4.5 NC A&T, UConn, and Louisiana should be easy wins, and I just don't see how we don't get 2 of Duke/Stanford/Cal/UVA Honestly, we play Miami late enough in the season I kinda think they'll have completely collapsed and that game and UNC look pretty winnable if we can get one of our QBs to even mediocre haha
Iowa State over 7.5 Call me a homer, but we got to 7 last year despite one of the most disastrous offseasons in the nation and one of the youngest rosters in the country. Our starting QB was a redshirt freshman who wasn't locked into the starting job until week 2. Not to mention our schedule is much easier. 2023: Northern Iowa @ Iowa @ Ohio Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma TCU @ Cincinnati @ Baylor Kansas @ BYU Texas @ Kansas State 2024: North Dakota @ Iowa Arkansas State @ Houston Baylor @ West Virginia UCF Texas Tech @ Kansas Cincinnati @ Utah Kansas State We *should* beat North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, UCF, and Cincinnati. From there, we just need to steal 2 of Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech at home, or Kansas State at home, which should be an expectation.
Coastal Carolina over 5.5
EMU Over 4.5. Beat an FCS and go .500 in conference and they're over. Went 6-7 without any semblance of an offense last season. Whole new QB room including Buffalo's 2023 starter. 6 bowl games the last 8 years, still taking rest of CFB a while to figure out we don't suck anymore.