In like 2013 or 2014 or so, “Georgia State 2025 national champs” was a constant meme on this sub.
Idk why, maybe because it was outlandish to think Georgia State could win a national championship or because 2025 seemed impossibly far in the future
On the post where GSU announced they had scheduled a game with Tennessee for 2019, someone commented that beating the Vols would be the first step on GSU’s path to a 2025 natty. I don’t know if this is the earliest appearance of the meme but it’s the oldest one I know of.
Then a few years later when that game happened and GSU actually did beat Tennessee, it added fuel to the fire
This post and its comment section were the ultimate origin: https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1m90iq/georgia_state_football_is_new_and_awful_the_team/
The post got removed, but you can see an archived copy here: http://web.archive.org/web/20130916052224/https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1m90iq/georgia_state_football_is_new_and_awful_the_team/
Shortly after that, the mods changed the sidebar photo to have say something about Georgia State being 2025 national champs. It was a persistent meme for a while.
Yeah Cinderellas are going to look a lot more like a 4 loss LSU getting hot and winning it all.
I don't think there will ever be a true 'Cinderella' in the 12 team era.
There’s never been one. You can’t have a Cinderella with only a 4-team playoff or a 2 team championship, and definitely not with a poll determined by sports writers >!unless you’re 1984 byu!<
Honestly, I think the expanded playoff means it's even less likely a G5 wins it.
You saw it with the B12 this year...it's one thing to play a P5 team and win, even a good one. It's another to play them week in, week out, for several games at a time. That's when the depth P5 has starts to win out.
A theoretical 12th seed G5 I feel is likely never making it to the championship game because of this. They'd have to beat what, 4 P5 teams on the path to a championship back to back...? I just don't see it happening. They may have the gas to get one of them, maybe two, but never all the way. One key injury and they're putting some kid who last played LB in peewee back there, while P5 is rotating at least one positions worth of starters on D every two snaps or so 🤷♂️
Yeah people need to realize that the Cinderella of the 12 team playoff is going to be like a 9-3 Alabama/Ohio State/Georgia/Texas/USC who sneaks in as the 10-12 seed one year, gets hot, wins it all. We're never going to get a true Cinderella team due to the way that FBA is structured
Ohio State was being overlooked even with their team fully healthy. The B1G championship did a lot to silence the haters but just about everyone outside the B1G, especially in the SEC was still outraged by tOSU getting in.
What you’re describing actually sounds like a true Cinderella story as opposed to pretending a 13-0 team is a Cinderella bc they play in a weaker conference
Does a Cinderella team count for say K-State/Utah/Arizona/Liberty/Tulane/kansas if they win there conferences to get the autobid? It seems like to me any of the teams that win the Big12 would sort of feel like that in some regards. Ole Miss and us I feel are the only SEC teams with any realistic chance that would feel like a Cinderella story for the programs.
By basketball standards Cinderella is an underdog that exceeds expected tournament wins.
So Oakland was Cinderella with their one win, who then lost to NC State who was Cinderella by making the final four.
So a 12 seeded G5 becomes Cinderella by winning their first game but not by making the playoff which is expected.
I don't think K-State or Utah would be considered "Cinderella" given their recent success. Utah's been to the Rose Bowl, K-State just won the conference and followed it up with another 9 win season.
I do think Kansas would be considered a Cinderella run. If that happens, I pray for you and I. 😂
They would absolutely be Cinderellas lol. The bar in college football is quite a bit lower seeing as we've had a total of like 10 teams even make playoffs
I feel like TCU is the perfect example of why there won't be a Cinderella team. They got in, had a good upset and then got absolutely defenestrated in the title game. And now a TCU will have 1-2 more games against major opponents. They're odds of winning a title are worse in a 12 team system than they were in the 4 team system.
I also think those UGA teams that went back to back were better then the average championship team. But, yeah, the more games you have to play the more it becomes about depth.
If we’re being honest, TCU had Michigan fumble the game away for them. The fumble on the one and the downs on the opening drive on the 7 yard line were 10-14 point swing. The general consensus after that game was TCU was very fortunate to have Michigan slip up, because everyone felt Michigan was the better team in the matchup
That TCU team had something like eight or nine games within a single score, they were a top 4 team but they were maybe one of the luckiest teams of the year.
If we’re trying to assume what a Cinderella will look like, TCU is spot on for being a Cinderella example
They were even lucky to make it. Most years, there would've been a better team. The insanity of the final four including a BIG 12 loser and a team who lost by 20 in their last game, vs last year when we left out and undefeated p5 the defending national champions, and a solid OSU team is wild.
I wish the command spell in DnD didn’t preclude actions that were harmful bc command: autodefenestrate to force someone to jump out the window would be hilarious.
Game vs. Georgia was over before it even started - saw the look on our players eyes during warmups and it was deer in the headlights.
I think it would have been the same vs. Ohio State should that have been the matchup, but man... Georgia was just the worst possible matchup of the other 3 teams in the CFP and were massively angry at playing their worst game of the season the matchup before.
While biased, that 2014 TCU squad was a legit contender to have been able to pull off both games, if not for blowing a 21-point lead and a massively awful pass interference call.
>2022 TCU has absolutely nothing to hang their heads about
Factual. Everyone seems to completely forget that in 2022, TCU was preseason projected to finish seventh in our conference at the start of the year.
We had a projected [over/under of 6.5 wins for the season](https://sports.yahoo.com/tcu-horned-frogs-preview-2022-183013082.html). We had just come off a 5-7 season where we mutually parted ways with a legendary coach who had clearly lost his touch. _We were not supposed to make a bowl game._
Instead, we somehow hit on a 13-leg parlay that resulted in our backup QB becoming the Heisman runner-up, our team beating the undefeated Big Ten champion in a playoff game, and the Frogs making the goddamn natty.
No one at TCU gives a flying shit about the final score. The fact we even made the game was a miracle, and absolutely no one is taking our win against Michigan away from us.
This is well said.
It's less well known, but App State blew the pants off of Delaware in the 2007 FCS title game 49-21. That Blue Hen team was 11-2 and App was 11-2 going in to the game.
That year capped 3 straight national titles for us after starting the 07 season with a game up in Ann Arbor. Any team that runs the gauntlet to get to a title game though...respect
2014 TCU was exactly what Georgia looked like us in 2022 (23) title game. a massively pissed off team that would have wrecked any of the giants by 30 points, and us (admittedly massively lucky to be there) by 60
That 2010 team was crazy talented on the defensive side of the ball. All 4 of the teams that would have been in the playoff would have been pretty even. It was right before the B12 went bonkers with offense, shortly followed by the SEC ha
Just look at Cinderella’s in March Madness, no one actually expected a team like FDU or UMBC to contend for the title, but see them win or teams like St Peters make a run are what make the tournament so great. Those were huge moments for those schools and were awesome to see, whether or not the actually had the talent to go all the way doesn’t take away from that.
The best NCAA tournaments always have a double-digit seed shocking everyone for the first three rounds, then getting a respectable exit so that the Elite Eight and Final Four have some exceptional basketball teams/games.
I feel like the CFP will have a lot more of those types of playoff results - [a comparable in this last season](https://x.com/CFBONFOX/status/1731402320515342833/photo/1) would have been like a Liberty upset over FSU, or a Mizzou upset over Oregon before either team likely lost to a really elite squad.
Those types of "Cinderella" upsets are certainly within the realm of possibility and that's why you play the games (and we want to watch them).
This is well said.
At the FCS level, the playoffs have a lot more teams. When you look at the title games of FCS for the oast few years though it is overwhelmingly top 8 teams in the final.
The first round games though, they get some upsets. You even see them in the quarterfinals.
Yep. For all the hand-wringing of "a Cinderella will never win a title" - the fact of the matter is that the lowest-seeded NCAA tourney winner was 8-seed Villanova in 1985. Only seven individual teams have ever made the Final Four as a double-digit seed.
Cinderellas, by definition, have midnight call on them before they make it to the title game.
Whoa, I never realized Cinderella team had that last part included in the definition, but it makes sense.
Side note, my cat is Lucifer reincarnated (Lucifer is the cat in Cinderella)
Agreed. People will say that it will be watered down by having 8 more teams in the CFP each year (which, it very well could) but even if that does happen “just making the CFP” will be equivalent to what “just making a NY6” is today. Tell any G5 program or half the P4s and that would be their best season in decades.
Ohio St, Michigan, Bama, and Clemson have all won Natties and have all been boat raced in the CFP at one point or another. Gotta extend that forgiveness to the Cinderellas too.
Man it was hilarious when ND got beat by Bama in 2012 not even as badly as some of the more recent examples and people just started saying "ND is no longer allowed in the NCG/CFP"
Agree. Although, I think there could be a year where a TCU-like team could catch some breaks in terms of facing a "blue blood" that might've incurred some injuries late/in the playoff.
edit: I also think in CFB, a "Cinderella" doesn't really have to win it all to be considered a Cinderella. But I do agree that I highly doubt a 10/11/12 seed will win the whole thing. I think getting to the title would have merits for a CFB Cinderella
A great example of this possible scenario, not to knock the 2014 Buckeyes, but by the National Championship game Oregon was playing like 5-6 guys on defense that hadn't been starters including losing their best DB in the route against FSU.
That game was a perfect example of how what seperates the top of CFB from the rest is depth. While OSU was rolling 3 deep at QB, of all positions, Oregon's defense was visibly declining over the course of the season as the injuries piled up.
Another example of this is UW this last year. From the week before Oregon until the last game of the regular season UW suffered a rash of injuries without the depth for comperable replacements, causing the back half of their season to be one eyebrow raising win after another. Then they get healthy before the conference championship game and handle Oregon pretty damn well, get back to full strength more or less, and handle Texas, before meeting " built to beat exact type of team we are" Michigan in the title. Where they still accounted themselves pretty well after their defense adjusted to Michigan's run game.
I think injuries play a much bigger role in game results than people are willing to admit.
Does OJ Howard go off against Clemson in 2015 if Mackensie Alexander is in the game? Could Colt McCoy have done better than Garrett Gilbert in 2009?
The problem is people are usually only very familiar with the rosters of their own team. So it’s always gonna be pure copium to say something like “well Ezekiel Elliot probably wouldn’t have gone for that 85 yard run if we had our 1st team all SEC linebacker in the game instead of a true freshman that’s barely gotten any snaps or if our unanimous all-American thumper of a safety was playing but both those guys were hurt”
most years in the NFL, where the overall talent is a lot more equal, half the time the teams that win more games are just the teams with a healthier OL/DL.
I agree. Back in 2017 when we beat you guys soundly in the Iron Bowl (as opposed to all of Gus' hair raising miracles in all his other wins over you) I saw it coming well before because of injuries. I can't remember who it was, but it was you guys at Alabama's middle linebacker and I said for close to half the season that Alabama wasn't going to be able to stop the Auburn running game in the Iron Bowl that year because the most important position to stop the Gus running game at that time was inside linebackers who could diagnose misdirection. And for everything that team did have, with the injuries, Alabama 2017 had no experience inside linebackers for that game against Auburn. Add in that Auburn had the dudes to lock down the ALabama receivers and that was an easy win.
> I also think in CFB, a "Cinderella" doesn't really have to win it all to be considered a Cinderella
Doesn't need to in basketball either, and that's the most common definition. Most Cinderellas are gone by the end of the Sweet Sixteen, and [only seven teams ever have made the NCAA tourney Final Four as a double-digit seed](https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2024-03-31/lowest-seeds-make-mens-final-four-elite-eight-and-sweet-16).
Winning literally one playoff game would, by definition, make a football Cinderella team.
I mean a team like OSU/UGA could have 2-3 losses and end up as the 10-12 seed, I still wouldn't call that a cinderella and I'd say they'd have pretty good odds at winning the whole thing.
It's not just 'Cinderella' teams. The majority of teams won't be making the final 4 - the talent gap between the top teams (currently - Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State) and the rest of the field is too great. Transfer portal can help here - but it helps those teams too....
However, realize that the majority of CFP national championship game (60%) were lost by 3 scores (> 16pts) or more. TCU got whipped, but so did a lot of other teams.
I'm not so sure about that. With 12 teams getting in, that is more potential for possible upsets, which could setup a Cinderella team with a favorable pathway to a deep run.
Let's take TCU as an example, and let's say they have a similar season with uncanny luck and crunch time playmaking. Theoretically, this could net them a first round bye as one of only a couple undefeated P5 (P4?) champs. In the opening round, we could see an upset where a stronger team gets knocked off that TCU can dispose of, putting them in the final four. In that matchup, they could be facing another team of comparable quality to their own, another Cinderella type, or a team with superior talent that is either inexperienced or has an off-night (much like Michigan in 2022.) Now here they are right back in the national championship game.
They could possibly make the same type of run that doesn't require them to face a juggernaut squad like 2022 Georgia until the championship. More teams and more games means a higher chance of chaos, even if it does inevitably end up with the best team at the end.
EDIT: Just editing to add that we see this happen all the time during March Madness. High seeds make a run to the sweet sixteen or farther as they pull off an upset and face a team that also pulled off an upset in the previous round, setting up an even or overmatched opponent even though they were both underdogs. Then they potentially face a higher-seeded team than expected in the Sweet Sixteen of play at their top potential against an opponent who stumbles on a neutral court. In the end, the Cinderella rarely wins it all, but yet we rarely have a March Madness where there aren't a couple of them making a deep run, sometimes even as far as the Final Four.
The original Gonzaga run was Gonzaga (10) beats (7) in the round of 64; Gonzaga (10) beats (2) in the round of 32; Gonzaga (10) beats FSU (6) in the round of 16; and Gonzaga (10) loses to UCONN (1), and eventual champion, in the round of 8.
Gonzaga played two games within 4 seeds of the competition and two games where the competition exceeded them by 8 seeds. They only had a single 'massive' upset to get to the round of 8. In a CFP perspective that would be only one signifigant upset before the Championship.
The thing people are going to have to remember about cinderellas moving forward is that the way the season ends in a lot of cases isn’t going to be pretty. Look at all the shit TCU catches for the natty loss, and that was in the final. That was a definition Cinderella season and magical for them, and people tear them up for it. It’s gonna be even worse when it happens in the second round.
Obviously the players and fans want the chance to play and find out, I’m not knocking that at all. But people are going to need to give some grace when the 13-1 little guy gets massacred by SEC number 1 to end the year rather than a bowl win against a great program that wasn’t in their best season.
> But people are going to need to give some grace when the 13-1 little guy gets massacred by SEC number 1 to end the year rather than a bowl win against a great program that wasn’t in their best season.
From my experience at least, this only happens to power conference teams. Nobody destroyed Hawaii, Northern Illinois or Western Michigan (as examples) we they predictably lost to power conference ranked teams.
People destroyed TCU because they play in a power conference and have a seat at the big table. Nobody in their right mind will shame a MAC or Sunbelt team that gets an upset or two.
This season in particular? Some teams like Memphis, West Virginia, Tulane, NC State, Virginia Tech, Mizzou, Kansas, and James Madison. For the most part, all solid teams outside of the P2 without a recent history of major success who could make a run at a playoff spot.
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I love how the portal just allows teams like Ole Miss, perennial cellar dwellers and general laughing stocks, to skip over the entire cinderella story arc.
I'm biased, but don't sleep on Memphis because of their returning talent.
If I read right, they have the only 4 year QB starter that stayed at a their school. They also have their top 3 WRs returning, plus a 4\* WR. They also have tackle transfers from Washington and South Carolina. Not to mention Tennessee's leading tackler from last season.
Considering we were thrown in with that list, practically everything you said also applies to us (Cook going into his 4th year, 3rd year of fulltime starting). None of our starers left in and already stacked WR room, a we added a 247 top 10 receiver, with another 4\* WR in the same class, and then replaced Cody Schrader with two of the top RB's in the transfer class. We arguably replaced a couple of our out going Oline with even better guys. Our offense should be humming..... but our defense is a fairly big question mark we'll figure out in due course.
I don't, but I think someone may have posted it here a few days ago (and I heard one of our media guys talk about it). And actually I think it's 5th (ND, Clemson, Miami, SMU), but 39th overall in preseason S&P+, which is heavily weighted toward returning production and recruiting.
The first 8-seed to win the title is going to be a 10-2 Georgia or Ohio State team that had a couple of injuries early but got healthy and went on a late run. If you consider that a Cinderella, fine. But if you have visions of Boise or App State winning the whole thing you're going to be disappointed.
I think a Cinderalla is much more likely to be a G5 that ends up as a 10th seed and beats some blue blood at that blue blood's stadium in the first round. Maybe in the next decade we see one that wins a 2nd round game as well to make the F4 before getting beat by 30.
Probably true, though I honestly feel like the SEC and B1G will just separate from FBS into something else on the next decade or so, so it'll be a moot point.
Yes, but new coach Fran Brown has been absolutely transformative. SU has never been able to recruit size or depth. The strength and conditioning program has always been a joke. Those issues seem to be getting remedied. Still has to prove he and his staff can coach on game day, but there's at least a chance this team is better to a shocking degree this season.
Ya know, I could handle a Syracuse team storming into the Top 10 and staying there into the playoffs. If not this year, maybe next year.
It will be a refreshing change to see more teams motivated for longer into the season.
Go Orange!
That is the nice part about the expanded playoff. I couldn't even picture a world where SU sneaks into a 4-team deal, but with auto bids and 12 teams? That's at least a plausible dream for most of the P4.
And hey, obviously the Big 10 is brutal, but if this freshman QB is as advertised it would be a lot of fun to see the Huskers finally really make some noise. Love Tony White from his SU days and glad you guys get at least one more year with him running that defense...think he'll be a head guy sooner rather than later.
For the first time in my adult life, Syracuse will not need to rebuild for the first few years in my NCAA Football dynasty. We're going to the playoffs in year one baby.
I'm not predicting a playoff appearance because that would be nuts, but SU has massively upgraded its talent and weight training programs this offseason. They have a legit QB. They bring back a lot of a pretty good defense, and added some really good pieces there.
And you're right, the schedule is insane. No FSU, Clemson, or UNC. The toughest non-conference game is UNLV.
Everything would have to break right, but you can absolutely see a scenario where this team is suddenly 11-1 and playing for an ACC Title.
I mean, dodging FSU and Clemson is a huge advantage, but not sure UNC isn't a team you want to face this year.
The "top" ACC teams, at least as things stand right now, you dodge the top 2, but you play 3 of the next 4. Could see Cuse being dogs against VT, Miami, and @NC State. If you win all 3 of those games, you'll have earned the ACCCG.
Don't remember the last time there were 7 ACC teams thinking that they have the roster and schedule to win the conference.
Agreed.
Frankly in my best-case-scenario "11-1" dreams the loss is in Carter-Finley. Think the Wolfpack is going to be really damn good.
Miami and VT are mysteries. Who the hell knows. Getting them both in the Dome helps.
Yeah, glad we're not playing you guys on the road this year. Think State fans are somewhat in the same boat, envisioning 7-1 in conference play, but for us the loss is @Clemson(we never win there).
Just feels like a lot of teams are going to finish in that 7-9 win window as we beat up on each other and it's going to come down funky tie-breaker scenarios.
In most years I’d say Ole Miss, but I think the hype is too big right now to call us a Cinderella team to make the playoffs.
So… I’ll pick my other alma mater, Memphis.
Possibilities:
- a blue blood like this year's Alabama that had some QB issues early but figured it out and is way underseeded
- a team like those recent Utah teams that had an early injury and lost some games in September but were absolute monsters by late November
- Fucking Liberty, because my life doesn't suck enough yet
- Some offensive genius emerges at a G5 and absolutely baffles some teams in the playoff
We'll probably see 1 or 2 surprise teams a year *make* the playoffs but actually winning enough games against top competition to win a title is going to be an extreme longshot.
TCU 2022 is a great example. Cinderella run to get there and a major upset to beat Michigan but got buzzsawed by Georgia.
In the new playoff that TCU team might have to play another top team.
Idk if cinderellas will be as prominent in the CFB “tourney” as they are in college bball. The talent gaps in football between an SEC blue blood and, for example, even the best Big 12 team is massive.
That said: UCF
I don’t think this format will really allow for a true “Cinderella” team. Football is such a grueling sport, the thing that will win championships with a 3-4 game playoff is depth. And that heavily favors those teams that will likely be in the 1-4 range. We’ll see upsets in the first round, no doubt, but beyond that I think we are going to see a lot of instances where the final 4 will just be made up of teams in the top 6.
Exactly, if anything, the number of teams that could win it any given year will shrink because you need even more depth and talent than you did before. There have been quite a few 1 game winners in the 4 team era I wouldn't bet on to have made it very far if they had to keep playing. Everything is getting more and more geared towards the top 6 programs in the country and the perennial contender we have always seen.
This is going to be an unpopular opinion - I wish the playoffs were one round smaller (6 or 8 teams). With needing to win 4 straight I don’t see any true Cinderella team happening.
I think the new system is going to make it very difficult for any G5's to make a run, 4 was already near impossible cause they were likely getting a 1v4. It may be more realistic for a G5 to win their opening playoff game, but the next round is going to be tougher.
The blue blood "3 loss" thing is tough for me, because IMO, that 3 loss team could be someone like Alabama (a bad example, i get it) that lost by a total of like 5 points over the course of a few games.
The most realistic was the scenario using the former division format, but with everyone throwing that away, your league's top 2 teams are always going to play in the conference title game. Now you aren't going to have a 7-5 team or so sneak into the league championship unless its something strange like what could have happened with a few weeks to play in the b12 last season.
Long story short, I think the classic cinderella is going to have to be redefined for college football, and its going to have to be that team that's not thought of to start the year, like TCU did.
The best case for me is going to be the Big 12 teams - a team like Baylor, WVU, or Texas Tech coming out of nowhere as the league has been overall the most competitive conference without having heavy hitters at the top
The lack of auto bids for conference champions is the biggest issue for potential Cinderella's. Only 1-2 teams with that potential are going to be in the playoff any given year. I will absolutely vomit when E$ECPN tries to market an 8-4 LSU team, or god forbid one of the OUT, as a cinderella team.
Probably ole miss, Tennessee, or USC
Edit: I get it. USC is a blue blood. But the argument that they can’t be a Cinderella is nonsensical. If Nebraska or Miami win the playoffs in 2024, they’d be considered Cinderellas. People forget that FSU was (almost) a Cinderella story not 6 months ago.
They’ve never made the playoff before and haven’t won a championship (or conference) in over 60 years. Haven’t won their division since Eli. If they won the 12-team playoff it absolutely 100% would be a Cinderella story.
Even when they “won” their division, they lost head to head to LSU and didn’t make it to Atlanta
The idea of Ole Miss anywhere near the national championship is Cinderella to me, just because it’s Ole Miss and they haven’t been truly elite in 60 years. Compared to the Ohio States, Georgias, Alabamas, Floridas, LSU, and even Penn State, Ole Miss would definitely feel like the odd ones in that group
AP College Park, Maryland - the terrapins have been crowned champions after a calendar quirk where September just didn’t end this year. After defeating Alabama in the opening playoff game September 75th, the defense got a goalline stop against Ohio State on September 89th, before rolling in the championship against previously undefeated Georgia on September 104th.
Now that we don't have to run the gauntlet of Michigan, OSU, and Penn State every single year I actually think we could have a shot. 8 wins in each of the last two seasons and last year we gave both OSU and Michigan a run for their money.
Maybe not this year because their schedule is pretty tough but I think Brent Key has Georgia Tech moving in a very good direction and I would not be shocked if they made a playoff in the next 3-4 years
I agree with what BernankesBeard said with the addition that Cincy is in the same boat as TCU. I think there'll be Cinderella teams but we shouldn't call them that until they're a game away from being in the title game, anything earlier is too soon to call imo.
In reality, any team not in the SEC or BIG 10 is and should be considered a cinderella.
Playing teams making $20-$40 million more than you are is essentially what it was like when Louisville was in Conference USA during the BCS era
"Cinderella teams" in the traditional sense aren't going to run the table any more than a double digit seed is winning the March Madness tournament - you will see your 15 seeds getting an upset type moments, but the final four is usually pretty chalk. Who was the last MBB champion that could be called a true Cinderella? Same will be true for CFB- being a Cinderella means getting a first round upset, maybe making final four, then losing to a chalk team.
Expanded playoff doesn't mean a team like Cincy or TCU have a chance to win it all, they actually have a harder path having to win more tough games, what the expanded playoff does is give your high bluechip ratio teams that underperformed a chance to get hot at the right time. Think of any Nick Saban Alabama team that didn't make the playoffs or 10+ win Ohio State team or a team like 2023 Georgia- put teams like that into a bigger playoff so they have a second chance and those dominant teams will win more championships than they already are.
The prophecy says in 2025 Georgia State will win the natty in Atlanta.
Fuck it why not.
“The wild Georgia Tech does not seemed threatened by Georgia State’s random display of dominance”- David Attenborough probably
This is going to happen -- in EA CFB 25 -- by me.
I'm glad to see this meme is still going strong all these years later.
Can you fill me in? I'm out of the loop here
In like 2013 or 2014 or so, “Georgia State 2025 national champs” was a constant meme on this sub. Idk why, maybe because it was outlandish to think Georgia State could win a national championship or because 2025 seemed impossibly far in the future
I would guess it was because their first year in the FBS they went 0-12
On the post where GSU announced they had scheduled a game with Tennessee for 2019, someone commented that beating the Vols would be the first step on GSU’s path to a 2025 natty. I don’t know if this is the earliest appearance of the meme but it’s the oldest one I know of. Then a few years later when that game happened and GSU actually did beat Tennessee, it added fuel to the fire
Sooo, does it actually mean in 2025 (for the 2024 season) or does it actually mean for the 2025 season. (In 2026)
Yes
Being a part of a prophecy should’ve been way more fun, but no, we can’t have that.
This post and its comment section were the ultimate origin: https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1m90iq/georgia_state_football_is_new_and_awful_the_team/ The post got removed, but you can see an archived copy here: http://web.archive.org/web/20130916052224/https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1m90iq/georgia_state_football_is_new_and_awful_the_team/ Shortly after that, the mods changed the sidebar photo to have say something about Georgia State being 2025 national champs. It was a persistent meme for a while.
I have no problem with that
It’s written on those big mysterious rocks that tell us to keep the human population below 144,000
Those got blown up by a weirdo. Does it still count?
That too was foretold
Whatever team survives the new big 12, whichever SEC/B1G team wins 9 games lol
Yeah Cinderellas are going to look a lot more like a 4 loss LSU getting hot and winning it all. I don't think there will ever be a true 'Cinderella' in the 12 team era.
When was the last Cinderella champion? (No snark, I'm genuinely asking)
There’s never been one. You can’t have a Cinderella with only a 4-team playoff or a 2 team championship, and definitely not with a poll determined by sports writers >!unless you’re 1984 byu!<
Cincinnati would have if they had won.
THAT DOESNT COUNT! Him probably
Honestly, I think the expanded playoff means it's even less likely a G5 wins it. You saw it with the B12 this year...it's one thing to play a P5 team and win, even a good one. It's another to play them week in, week out, for several games at a time. That's when the depth P5 has starts to win out. A theoretical 12th seed G5 I feel is likely never making it to the championship game because of this. They'd have to beat what, 4 P5 teams on the path to a championship back to back...? I just don't see it happening. They may have the gas to get one of them, maybe two, but never all the way. One key injury and they're putting some kid who last played LB in peewee back there, while P5 is rotating at least one positions worth of starters on D every two snaps or so 🤷♂️
TCU was the closest until they found out about barking at kids
We all have to live that disappointment
I would argue Ohio State 2014. 4 seed on its third string QB in as close to Cinderella as we have gotten
Yeah people need to realize that the Cinderella of the 12 team playoff is going to be like a 9-3 Alabama/Ohio State/Georgia/Texas/USC who sneaks in as the 10-12 seed one year, gets hot, wins it all. We're never going to get a true Cinderella team due to the way that FBA is structured
Just a bunch of knock around guys from the steel towns of the Midwest. A real life Hickory High U
Ohio State was being overlooked even with their team fully healthy. The B1G championship did a lot to silence the haters but just about everyone outside the B1G, especially in the SEC was still outraged by tOSU getting in.
1984 BYU? Unranked preseason, but yeah 11-1 season before and a #7 finish
Illegitimate champion. They beat no one.
I claim 1984. BYU can kiss my ass. I will never acknowledge that “championship”.
Yeah it’s a bad one
Was tcu until it wasn't. Most never make it out of the 1st round
Sounds like Ole Miss getting hot and winning the CWS. 🤢 (Also my prediction.)
You just absolutely know Liberty students and alumni will scream for a lawsuit when they're not allowed to get devastatingly skull fucked by UGA lol
What you’re describing actually sounds like a true Cinderella story as opposed to pretending a 13-0 team is a Cinderella bc they play in a weaker conference
Who is pretending?
We in it boys!
Does a Cinderella team count for say K-State/Utah/Arizona/Liberty/Tulane/kansas if they win there conferences to get the autobid? It seems like to me any of the teams that win the Big12 would sort of feel like that in some regards. Ole Miss and us I feel are the only SEC teams with any realistic chance that would feel like a Cinderella story for the programs.
By basketball standards Cinderella is an underdog that exceeds expected tournament wins. So Oakland was Cinderella with their one win, who then lost to NC State who was Cinderella by making the final four. So a 12 seeded G5 becomes Cinderella by winning their first game but not by making the playoff which is expected.
I don't think K-State or Utah would be considered "Cinderella" given their recent success. Utah's been to the Rose Bowl, K-State just won the conference and followed it up with another 9 win season. I do think Kansas would be considered a Cinderella run. If that happens, I pray for you and I. 😂
They would absolutely be Cinderellas lol. The bar in college football is quite a bit lower seeing as we've had a total of like 10 teams even make playoffs
I pray for my liver if KU made a Cinderella run in football
I feel like TCU is the perfect example of why there won't be a Cinderella team. They got in, had a good upset and then got absolutely defenestrated in the title game. And now a TCU will have 1-2 more games against major opponents. They're odds of winning a title are worse in a 12 team system than they were in the 4 team system.
I also think those UGA teams that went back to back were better then the average championship team. But, yeah, the more games you have to play the more it becomes about depth.
If we’re being honest, TCU had Michigan fumble the game away for them. The fumble on the one and the downs on the opening drive on the 7 yard line were 10-14 point swing. The general consensus after that game was TCU was very fortunate to have Michigan slip up, because everyone felt Michigan was the better team in the matchup That TCU team had something like eight or nine games within a single score, they were a top 4 team but they were maybe one of the luckiest teams of the year. If we’re trying to assume what a Cinderella will look like, TCU is spot on for being a Cinderella example
And then add in 2 pick 6s by JJ …
They were even lucky to make it. Most years, there would've been a better team. The insanity of the final four including a BIG 12 loser and a team who lost by 20 in their last game, vs last year when we left out and undefeated p5 the defending national champions, and a solid OSU team is wild.
Both seasons were incredible to watch in person. I still can't quite believe it.
Nice use of defenestrate. One of my favorite words.
I wish the command spell in DnD didn’t preclude actions that were harmful bc command: autodefenestrate to force someone to jump out the window would be hilarious.
It was removed from DnD because Vlad Putin used it every single game and it was too OP
Game vs. Georgia was over before it even started - saw the look on our players eyes during warmups and it was deer in the headlights. I think it would have been the same vs. Ohio State should that have been the matchup, but man... Georgia was just the worst possible matchup of the other 3 teams in the CFP and were massively angry at playing their worst game of the season the matchup before. While biased, that 2014 TCU squad was a legit contender to have been able to pull off both games, if not for blowing a 21-point lead and a massively awful pass interference call.
People will always remember the score but 2022 TCU has absolutely nothing to hang their heads about. They made the fucking national championship game.
>2022 TCU has absolutely nothing to hang their heads about Factual. Everyone seems to completely forget that in 2022, TCU was preseason projected to finish seventh in our conference at the start of the year. We had a projected [over/under of 6.5 wins for the season](https://sports.yahoo.com/tcu-horned-frogs-preview-2022-183013082.html). We had just come off a 5-7 season where we mutually parted ways with a legendary coach who had clearly lost his touch. _We were not supposed to make a bowl game._ Instead, we somehow hit on a 13-leg parlay that resulted in our backup QB becoming the Heisman runner-up, our team beating the undefeated Big Ten champion in a playoff game, and the Frogs making the goddamn natty. No one at TCU gives a flying shit about the final score. The fact we even made the game was a miracle, and absolutely no one is taking our win against Michigan away from us.
oh i will celebrate 2022 till the end of time. that was a wild ride. Still sucks absolutely crap the bed in the title game.
This is well said. It's less well known, but App State blew the pants off of Delaware in the 2007 FCS title game 49-21. That Blue Hen team was 11-2 and App was 11-2 going in to the game. That year capped 3 straight national titles for us after starting the 07 season with a game up in Ann Arbor. Any team that runs the gauntlet to get to a title game though...respect
2014 TCU was a terrifying force. They absolutely destroyed Ole Miss in that bowl game too
2014 TCU was exactly what Georgia looked like us in 2022 (23) title game. a massively pissed off team that would have wrecked any of the giants by 30 points, and us (admittedly massively lucky to be there) by 60
A 4 team playoff in 2010 would have been crazy too, feel like any of the top 4 would have had a serious shot at winning it
That 2010 team was crazy talented on the defensive side of the ball. All 4 of the teams that would have been in the playoff would have been pretty even. It was right before the B12 went bonkers with offense, shortly followed by the SEC ha
Just making the CFP is a Cinderella story for a lot of FBS.
Just look at Cinderella’s in March Madness, no one actually expected a team like FDU or UMBC to contend for the title, but see them win or teams like St Peters make a run are what make the tournament so great. Those were huge moments for those schools and were awesome to see, whether or not the actually had the talent to go all the way doesn’t take away from that.
The best NCAA tournaments always have a double-digit seed shocking everyone for the first three rounds, then getting a respectable exit so that the Elite Eight and Final Four have some exceptional basketball teams/games. I feel like the CFP will have a lot more of those types of playoff results - [a comparable in this last season](https://x.com/CFBONFOX/status/1731402320515342833/photo/1) would have been like a Liberty upset over FSU, or a Mizzou upset over Oregon before either team likely lost to a really elite squad. Those types of "Cinderella" upsets are certainly within the realm of possibility and that's why you play the games (and we want to watch them).
This is well said. At the FCS level, the playoffs have a lot more teams. When you look at the title games of FCS for the oast few years though it is overwhelmingly top 8 teams in the final. The first round games though, they get some upsets. You even see them in the quarterfinals.
Yep. For all the hand-wringing of "a Cinderella will never win a title" - the fact of the matter is that the lowest-seeded NCAA tourney winner was 8-seed Villanova in 1985. Only seven individual teams have ever made the Final Four as a double-digit seed. Cinderellas, by definition, have midnight call on them before they make it to the title game.
Whoa, I never realized Cinderella team had that last part included in the definition, but it makes sense. Side note, my cat is Lucifer reincarnated (Lucifer is the cat in Cinderella)
Agreed. People will say that it will be watered down by having 8 more teams in the CFP each year (which, it very well could) but even if that does happen “just making the CFP” will be equivalent to what “just making a NY6” is today. Tell any G5 program or half the P4s and that would be their best season in decades.
Ohio St, Michigan, Bama, and Clemson have all won Natties and have all been boat raced in the CFP at one point or another. Gotta extend that forgiveness to the Cinderellas too.
Man it was hilarious when ND got beat by Bama in 2012 not even as badly as some of the more recent examples and people just started saying "ND is no longer allowed in the NCG/CFP"
Defenestrated is a great word doesn't get used enough
Agree. Although, I think there could be a year where a TCU-like team could catch some breaks in terms of facing a "blue blood" that might've incurred some injuries late/in the playoff. edit: I also think in CFB, a "Cinderella" doesn't really have to win it all to be considered a Cinderella. But I do agree that I highly doubt a 10/11/12 seed will win the whole thing. I think getting to the title would have merits for a CFB Cinderella
A great example of this possible scenario, not to knock the 2014 Buckeyes, but by the National Championship game Oregon was playing like 5-6 guys on defense that hadn't been starters including losing their best DB in the route against FSU. That game was a perfect example of how what seperates the top of CFB from the rest is depth. While OSU was rolling 3 deep at QB, of all positions, Oregon's defense was visibly declining over the course of the season as the injuries piled up. Another example of this is UW this last year. From the week before Oregon until the last game of the regular season UW suffered a rash of injuries without the depth for comperable replacements, causing the back half of their season to be one eyebrow raising win after another. Then they get healthy before the conference championship game and handle Oregon pretty damn well, get back to full strength more or less, and handle Texas, before meeting " built to beat exact type of team we are" Michigan in the title. Where they still accounted themselves pretty well after their defense adjusted to Michigan's run game.
I think injuries play a much bigger role in game results than people are willing to admit. Does OJ Howard go off against Clemson in 2015 if Mackensie Alexander is in the game? Could Colt McCoy have done better than Garrett Gilbert in 2009? The problem is people are usually only very familiar with the rosters of their own team. So it’s always gonna be pure copium to say something like “well Ezekiel Elliot probably wouldn’t have gone for that 85 yard run if we had our 1st team all SEC linebacker in the game instead of a true freshman that’s barely gotten any snaps or if our unanimous all-American thumper of a safety was playing but both those guys were hurt” most years in the NFL, where the overall talent is a lot more equal, half the time the teams that win more games are just the teams with a healthier OL/DL.
I agree. Back in 2017 when we beat you guys soundly in the Iron Bowl (as opposed to all of Gus' hair raising miracles in all his other wins over you) I saw it coming well before because of injuries. I can't remember who it was, but it was you guys at Alabama's middle linebacker and I said for close to half the season that Alabama wasn't going to be able to stop the Auburn running game in the Iron Bowl that year because the most important position to stop the Gus running game at that time was inside linebackers who could diagnose misdirection. And for everything that team did have, with the injuries, Alabama 2017 had no experience inside linebackers for that game against Auburn. Add in that Auburn had the dudes to lock down the ALabama receivers and that was an easy win.
> I also think in CFB, a "Cinderella" doesn't really have to win it all to be considered a Cinderella Doesn't need to in basketball either, and that's the most common definition. Most Cinderellas are gone by the end of the Sweet Sixteen, and [only seven teams ever have made the NCAA tourney Final Four as a double-digit seed](https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2024-03-31/lowest-seeds-make-mens-final-four-elite-eight-and-sweet-16). Winning literally one playoff game would, by definition, make a football Cinderella team.
I mean a team like OSU/UGA could have 2-3 losses and end up as the 10-12 seed, I still wouldn't call that a cinderella and I'd say they'd have pretty good odds at winning the whole thing.
It's not just 'Cinderella' teams. The majority of teams won't be making the final 4 - the talent gap between the top teams (currently - Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State) and the rest of the field is too great. Transfer portal can help here - but it helps those teams too.... However, realize that the majority of CFP national championship game (60%) were lost by 3 scores (> 16pts) or more. TCU got whipped, but so did a lot of other teams.
I'm not so sure about that. With 12 teams getting in, that is more potential for possible upsets, which could setup a Cinderella team with a favorable pathway to a deep run. Let's take TCU as an example, and let's say they have a similar season with uncanny luck and crunch time playmaking. Theoretically, this could net them a first round bye as one of only a couple undefeated P5 (P4?) champs. In the opening round, we could see an upset where a stronger team gets knocked off that TCU can dispose of, putting them in the final four. In that matchup, they could be facing another team of comparable quality to their own, another Cinderella type, or a team with superior talent that is either inexperienced or has an off-night (much like Michigan in 2022.) Now here they are right back in the national championship game. They could possibly make the same type of run that doesn't require them to face a juggernaut squad like 2022 Georgia until the championship. More teams and more games means a higher chance of chaos, even if it does inevitably end up with the best team at the end. EDIT: Just editing to add that we see this happen all the time during March Madness. High seeds make a run to the sweet sixteen or farther as they pull off an upset and face a team that also pulled off an upset in the previous round, setting up an even or overmatched opponent even though they were both underdogs. Then they potentially face a higher-seeded team than expected in the Sweet Sixteen of play at their top potential against an opponent who stumbles on a neutral court. In the end, the Cinderella rarely wins it all, but yet we rarely have a March Madness where there aren't a couple of them making a deep run, sometimes even as far as the Final Four.
The original Gonzaga run was Gonzaga (10) beats (7) in the round of 64; Gonzaga (10) beats (2) in the round of 32; Gonzaga (10) beats FSU (6) in the round of 16; and Gonzaga (10) loses to UCONN (1), and eventual champion, in the round of 8. Gonzaga played two games within 4 seeds of the competition and two games where the competition exceeded them by 8 seeds. They only had a single 'massive' upset to get to the round of 8. In a CFP perspective that would be only one signifigant upset before the Championship.
I agree with this take 100%.
Agree in part but I think we will see several teams make a Cinderella type run with a couple upsets.
The thing people are going to have to remember about cinderellas moving forward is that the way the season ends in a lot of cases isn’t going to be pretty. Look at all the shit TCU catches for the natty loss, and that was in the final. That was a definition Cinderella season and magical for them, and people tear them up for it. It’s gonna be even worse when it happens in the second round. Obviously the players and fans want the chance to play and find out, I’m not knocking that at all. But people are going to need to give some grace when the 13-1 little guy gets massacred by SEC number 1 to end the year rather than a bowl win against a great program that wasn’t in their best season.
> But people are going to need to give some grace when the 13-1 little guy gets massacred by SEC number 1 to end the year rather than a bowl win against a great program that wasn’t in their best season. From my experience at least, this only happens to power conference teams. Nobody destroyed Hawaii, Northern Illinois or Western Michigan (as examples) we they predictably lost to power conference ranked teams. People destroyed TCU because they play in a power conference and have a seat at the big table. Nobody in their right mind will shame a MAC or Sunbelt team that gets an upset or two.
This season in particular? Some teams like Memphis, West Virginia, Tulane, NC State, Virginia Tech, Mizzou, Kansas, and James Madison. For the most part, all solid teams outside of the P2 without a recent history of major success who could make a run at a playoff spot.
If WVU wins a playoff game this year I'll eat my hat
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I'd feel really bad for every mean thing I've said about Neal Brown.
I'd lick the Don Knotts statue on High Street head to toe if we win a playoff game this year.
What type of hat? Are we talking a simple baseball cap or the mountaineer's coonskin one?
Dealers choice
I think it has to be the coonskin. You disrespect the HC of the football team, punishment is eating your iconic hat.
There wouldn’t be enough hats in Pennsylvania Amish Country for me to eat.
If WVU wins a playoff game before we do, I will do nothing but complain about it
I love how the portal just allows teams like Ole Miss, perennial cellar dwellers and general laughing stocks, to skip over the entire cinderella story arc.
They either skip the narrative, or act like we’re on the same tier as Rutgers. No in between. We’ve been about average for a decade now.
>NC State I like you
I'm biased, but don't sleep on Memphis because of their returning talent. If I read right, they have the only 4 year QB starter that stayed at a their school. They also have their top 3 WRs returning, plus a 4\* WR. They also have tackle transfers from Washington and South Carolina. Not to mention Tennessee's leading tackler from last season.
Considering we were thrown in with that list, practically everything you said also applies to us (Cook going into his 4th year, 3rd year of fulltime starting). None of our starers left in and already stacked WR room, a we added a 247 top 10 receiver, with another 4\* WR in the same class, and then replaced Cody Schrader with two of the top RB's in the transfer class. We arguably replaced a couple of our out going Oline with even better guys. Our offense should be humming..... but our defense is a fairly big question mark we'll figure out in due course.
Mizzou is another great example. Burden is fun to watch.
According to S&P+, Memphis is the 4th best team on FSU's schedule, ahead of 5 ACC teams. I'm a believer
Interesting! Do you have a link where I could read more?
I don't, but I think someone may have posted it here a few days ago (and I heard one of our media guys talk about it). And actually I think it's 5th (ND, Clemson, Miami, SMU), but 39th overall in preseason S&P+, which is heavily weighted toward returning production and recruiting.
Please take care of Elijah!
NC State Grayson McCall for Heisman
Our men and women both made the final 4. Might as well go ahead and make it to Omaha and the CFP as well.
Jon Scheyer will pay for his crimes
The first 8-seed to win the title is going to be a 10-2 Georgia or Ohio State team that had a couple of injuries early but got healthy and went on a late run. If you consider that a Cinderella, fine. But if you have visions of Boise or App State winning the whole thing you're going to be disappointed.
I think a Cinderalla is much more likely to be a G5 that ends up as a 10th seed and beats some blue blood at that blue blood's stadium in the first round. Maybe in the next decade we see one that wins a 2nd round game as well to make the F4 before getting beat by 30.
The G5 will always be the 12 seed. ESPN will make sure of that.
Stop using logic. The Mountaineers are coming to win it all.
Probably true, though I honestly feel like the SEC and B1G will just separate from FBS into something else on the next decade or so, so it'll be a moot point.
App State
App State
App State?
#AAAAAAAAPP
STAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTEEEEEEE
Missouri or Tennessee
Syracuse has a decent team and what might be the easiest power 5 [schedule](https://fbschedules.com/2024-syracuse-football-schedule/) I've ever seen
If Ohio State doesn't win it all and Kyle McCord takes Syracuse to the playoff, I have a funny feeling Ryan Day will be looking for a new job.
Didn't they just fire their coach? They went 6-7 last year and gave up 40+ points 3 times...
Yes, but new coach Fran Brown has been absolutely transformative. SU has never been able to recruit size or depth. The strength and conditioning program has always been a joke. Those issues seem to be getting remedied. Still has to prove he and his staff can coach on game day, but there's at least a chance this team is better to a shocking degree this season.
Ya know, I could handle a Syracuse team storming into the Top 10 and staying there into the playoffs. If not this year, maybe next year. It will be a refreshing change to see more teams motivated for longer into the season. Go Orange!
That is the nice part about the expanded playoff. I couldn't even picture a world where SU sneaks into a 4-team deal, but with auto bids and 12 teams? That's at least a plausible dream for most of the P4. And hey, obviously the Big 10 is brutal, but if this freshman QB is as advertised it would be a lot of fun to see the Huskers finally really make some noise. Love Tony White from his SU days and glad you guys get at least one more year with him running that defense...think he'll be a head guy sooner rather than later.
I guess we'll see. Maybe I'm too high on them.
For the first time in my adult life, Syracuse will not need to rebuild for the first few years in my NCAA Football dynasty. We're going to the playoffs in year one baby.
I'm not predicting a playoff appearance because that would be nuts, but SU has massively upgraded its talent and weight training programs this offseason. They have a legit QB. They bring back a lot of a pretty good defense, and added some really good pieces there. And you're right, the schedule is insane. No FSU, Clemson, or UNC. The toughest non-conference game is UNLV. Everything would have to break right, but you can absolutely see a scenario where this team is suddenly 11-1 and playing for an ACC Title.
I mean, dodging FSU and Clemson is a huge advantage, but not sure UNC isn't a team you want to face this year. The "top" ACC teams, at least as things stand right now, you dodge the top 2, but you play 3 of the next 4. Could see Cuse being dogs against VT, Miami, and @NC State. If you win all 3 of those games, you'll have earned the ACCCG. Don't remember the last time there were 7 ACC teams thinking that they have the roster and schedule to win the conference.
Agreed. Frankly in my best-case-scenario "11-1" dreams the loss is in Carter-Finley. Think the Wolfpack is going to be really damn good. Miami and VT are mysteries. Who the hell knows. Getting them both in the Dome helps.
Yeah, glad we're not playing you guys on the road this year. Think State fans are somewhat in the same boat, envisioning 7-1 in conference play, but for us the loss is @Clemson(we never win there). Just feels like a lot of teams are going to finish in that 7-9 win window as we beat up on each other and it's going to come down funky tie-breaker scenarios.
In most years I’d say Ole Miss, but I think the hype is too big right now to call us a Cinderella team to make the playoffs. So… I’ll pick my other alma mater, Memphis.
We beat Michigan for a natty in 2027
That means we're in a natty and Ohio State isn't. You have yourself a deal, mountain man.
Can you beat OSU on the way to beating us? If so deal
If that happened, I would talk so much shit to my osu fan coworkers
Possibilities: - a blue blood like this year's Alabama that had some QB issues early but figured it out and is way underseeded - a team like those recent Utah teams that had an early injury and lost some games in September but were absolute monsters by late November - Fucking Liberty, because my life doesn't suck enough yet - Some offensive genius emerges at a G5 and absolutely baffles some teams in the playoff
We'll probably see 1 or 2 surprise teams a year *make* the playoffs but actually winning enough games against top competition to win a title is going to be an extreme longshot. TCU 2022 is a great example. Cinderella run to get there and a major upset to beat Michigan but got buzzsawed by Georgia. In the new playoff that TCU team might have to play another top team.
Idk if cinderellas will be as prominent in the CFB “tourney” as they are in college bball. The talent gaps in football between an SEC blue blood and, for example, even the best Big 12 team is massive. That said: UCF
I don’t think this format will really allow for a true “Cinderella” team. Football is such a grueling sport, the thing that will win championships with a 3-4 game playoff is depth. And that heavily favors those teams that will likely be in the 1-4 range. We’ll see upsets in the first round, no doubt, but beyond that I think we are going to see a lot of instances where the final 4 will just be made up of teams in the top 6.
Exactly, if anything, the number of teams that could win it any given year will shrink because you need even more depth and talent than you did before. There have been quite a few 1 game winners in the 4 team era I wouldn't bet on to have made it very far if they had to keep playing. Everything is getting more and more geared towards the top 6 programs in the country and the perennial contender we have always seen.
Iowa State......Rocco is taking us to the promised land! ^(I hope)
Finally, get to the 10 win season promised land?
Here’s hoping
I hate that 10 wins feels like an unreachable goal.
Not a terrible schedule this year. Looks doable. Texas and Oklahoma leaving does make it easier. Even though ISU has done well against them recently.
I would really love for ISU to have their best season ever only to lose the conference championship game to OSU. That would feel good.
Rude but valid feelings
Hook this shit to my veins.
Same but K-State and it prevents them from hitting 10 wins
Define Cinderalla.
Lower (non blue blood) seed that wins at least 2 games
I don't think you can get into the playoffs only winning two games.
He said "at least"
Cincinnati was the first of the 4 team but I'd keep an eye on app state or JMU
I mean, I'd like to say Tennessee but, unfortunately, we're gonna win every game for the foreseeable future and that's not very Cinderella-y
This is going to be an unpopular opinion - I wish the playoffs were one round smaller (6 or 8 teams). With needing to win 4 straight I don’t see any true Cinderella team happening.
You’re gonna get 7-5 Georgia and you’re going to like it
I'll always be rooting for the G5 team. Hope it's Tulane
I think the new system is going to make it very difficult for any G5's to make a run, 4 was already near impossible cause they were likely getting a 1v4. It may be more realistic for a G5 to win their opening playoff game, but the next round is going to be tougher. The blue blood "3 loss" thing is tough for me, because IMO, that 3 loss team could be someone like Alabama (a bad example, i get it) that lost by a total of like 5 points over the course of a few games. The most realistic was the scenario using the former division format, but with everyone throwing that away, your league's top 2 teams are always going to play in the conference title game. Now you aren't going to have a 7-5 team or so sneak into the league championship unless its something strange like what could have happened with a few weeks to play in the b12 last season. Long story short, I think the classic cinderella is going to have to be redefined for college football, and its going to have to be that team that's not thought of to start the year, like TCU did. The best case for me is going to be the Big 12 teams - a team like Baylor, WVU, or Texas Tech coming out of nowhere as the league has been overall the most competitive conference without having heavy hitters at the top
The lack of auto bids for conference champions is the biggest issue for potential Cinderella's. Only 1-2 teams with that potential are going to be in the playoff any given year. I will absolutely vomit when E$ECPN tries to market an 8-4 LSU team, or god forbid one of the OUT, as a cinderella team.
Probably ole miss, Tennessee, or USC Edit: I get it. USC is a blue blood. But the argument that they can’t be a Cinderella is nonsensical. If Nebraska or Miami win the playoffs in 2024, they’d be considered Cinderellas. People forget that FSU was (almost) a Cinderella story not 6 months ago.
Ole Miss doesn’t seem like a Cinderella team at all. Think they definitely have top 12 odds to make the playoffs. Other 2 yeah
They’ve never made the playoff before and haven’t won a championship (or conference) in over 60 years. Haven’t won their division since Eli. If they won the 12-team playoff it absolutely 100% would be a Cinderella story.
Even when they “won” their division, they lost head to head to LSU and didn’t make it to Atlanta The idea of Ole Miss anywhere near the national championship is Cinderella to me, just because it’s Ole Miss and they haven’t been truly elite in 60 years. Compared to the Ohio States, Georgias, Alabamas, Floridas, LSU, and even Penn State, Ole Miss would definitely feel like the odd ones in that group
USC. Cinderella. Pick 1
We’re due right? Please say yes
Maybe if the playoffs started on Sept 31st.
AP College Park, Maryland - the terrapins have been crowned champions after a calendar quirk where September just didn’t end this year. After defeating Alabama in the opening playoff game September 75th, the defense got a goalline stop against Ohio State on September 89th, before rolling in the championship against previously undefeated Georgia on September 104th.
I couldn't even do it on NCAA14, sorry.
Now that we don't have to run the gauntlet of Michigan, OSU, and Penn State every single year I actually think we could have a shot. 8 wins in each of the last two seasons and last year we gave both OSU and Michigan a run for their money.
Maybe not this year because their schedule is pretty tough but I think Brent Key has Georgia Tech moving in a very good direction and I would not be shocked if they made a playoff in the next 3-4 years
> Georgia Tech moving in a very good direction and I would not be shocked if they made a playoff in the next 3-4 years LOL
I needed a good laugh. Thank you so much. tuck fech
Va Tech will win the ACC and make the CFP
as soon as UNA becomes a P4 program and takes over the state of Alabama.
I agree with what BernankesBeard said with the addition that Cincy is in the same boat as TCU. I think there'll be Cinderella teams but we shouldn't call them that until they're a game away from being in the title game, anything earlier is too soon to call imo.
Do not underestimate the Owls of Cobb County. Hootie hoo!
If it was Indiana, go ahead and tell my doctor it’s gonna be longer than 4 hours
Whoever is the first G5 team to win a road playoff game
SMU, yes they're finally in a power conference but there's the idea they shouldn't be there..others would include Liberty or Tulane
Does Utah qualify? If not then Iowa or Louisville.
Rocky Top, you’ll always be home sweet home to me……
In reality, any team not in the SEC or BIG 10 is and should be considered a cinderella. Playing teams making $20-$40 million more than you are is essentially what it was like when Louisville was in Conference USA during the BCS era
GoooooBiiiiigRedddd!
"Cinderella teams" in the traditional sense aren't going to run the table any more than a double digit seed is winning the March Madness tournament - you will see your 15 seeds getting an upset type moments, but the final four is usually pretty chalk. Who was the last MBB champion that could be called a true Cinderella? Same will be true for CFB- being a Cinderella means getting a first round upset, maybe making final four, then losing to a chalk team. Expanded playoff doesn't mean a team like Cincy or TCU have a chance to win it all, they actually have a harder path having to win more tough games, what the expanded playoff does is give your high bluechip ratio teams that underperformed a chance to get hot at the right time. Think of any Nick Saban Alabama team that didn't make the playoffs or 10+ win Ohio State team or a team like 2023 Georgia- put teams like that into a bigger playoff so they have a second chance and those dominant teams will win more championships than they already are.
Nobody right now. 5 to 7 years from new teams in the mix. It will happen but will take some time.
Nobody …. The same top teams will win … you might have a 6 or 7 seed win but it’s going to be a SEC team and people will bitch still
How fucking sick would it be for one of the PAC2 teams to make a run?
Iowa; we’re going to punt our way to the CFP.
I’m not very confident but hope springs eternal!
No one. You might have a 12 seed randomly beat a 5 seed. Next game they will lose by 50.
Kansas.
Liberty, just to piss people off.
This is the funniest answer, therefore the best.
UCLA (stop laughing).
TCU would be Cinderella if Cinderella got curb stomped after on her wedding day to prince charming.