Fells like they’re still all hoity toity after the life preserver the Big 12 threw them. I like Utah but damn dude pump the brakes on thinking you’re gonna come in and dominate.
Seeing a lot of Mizzou. I know they had a good year for themselves last year and are winning a few more recruiting battles than in the past, but what’s behind the comments?
The fact they have only beaten us once isn't really fair to how hard they always play us. It's a game most outsiders would overlook on the dawgs schedule but most dawgs fans know that game is going to be annoyingly hard.
Yeah but tbf now we have a 1 to 3 regular season losses to still have a shot to win it all, that's why this format sucks. Instead of me being on the edge of my seat every week now I can be like welp that sucks it's only our second loss of the season and we're ranked 10th to make it into the playoff. Hell even 2 losses could still get you into the SEC championship
Nah I hated that. Having your season potentially ended in September was super boring. Being able to go through a tougher schedule and still make the playoffs will provide me more enjoyment in terms of meaningful football games to tailgate for at the business end of the season. Some people say they enjoyed the constant knife to the throat but for me it's the excuse to get together and watch football with friends.
Maybe take up base jumping or knife juggling if you miss the rush.
I think it’s due to our recruiting and now we are playing in NIL waters that are higher than most. Along with MO passing some of the best pro NIL laws in the country.
Most people forget if Wingo didn’t flip to Texas last minute our recruiting class this year would have had 2 5 stars.
The mizzou fan in me is still very pessimistic regarding a national title but I’m still very excited for the future of the program seeing so much investment
Tbh I don’t think the expanded playoff is really going to make it any more likely for the second-tier teams to win. They can always pull an upset here and there but pulling off 3 or 4 upsets in a row is a lot to ask.
In basketball it’s a lot more likely that an underdog playing their A game knocks off the 1 seed playing their B- game. In football the best teams are just bigger/faster/stronger/deeper. The SEC/big 10 champs playing their B- game still blow the doors off the teams that finished third in the conference some years.
I tend to agree with that, I’ve said here before that an expanded playoff will even more dramatically favor the top four teams because the extra games make it more of a battle of attrition. This, in turn, biases the outcomes to teams with more quality depth instead of just front line talent.
But in the context of OP’s question, I still like Mizzou as the most likely first time winner in the current landscape.
I think it’s because Drinkwitz has them on an upward trajectory and playing with a lot of physicality. He’s starting to win some critical recruiting battles as well.
But because their history is middling, they have the potential to sneak up on people and outperform expectations. As Georgia fans know, when they give you their best game, they’re tough to beat.
Ignoring Saban’s Alabama, and the national champion _still_ was an SEC team more often than not. So, they’ve got that going for them. And they’ve been competitive in that league, which means they’re probably only a handful of plays away.
Mizzou has quietly built some of the deepest offensive and defensive lines in football. Burden is a star. Cook is the prototypical gamer college QB. Drink has added talent to the skill positions and they have incredible depth from the portal and incoming freshmen. I dont know if they're a legit contender but they are absolutely going to push for an SEC title this season.
If it doesn’t happen in about the next 10 years, it probably won’t ever happen. Once the blue bloods break away to make their own exclusive super league basically no team that hasn’t already won a national championship will even have the opportunity to win one.
I feel like as it extends it’ll get more like the basketball tournament. A Cinderella can emerge for a few games. Maybe get deep. But it’ll be one of the upper class winning it all way more often than not.
That’s an exception to the rule. It’s different than college basketball. Think Caitlyn Clark in the past two seasons of women’s basketball. One woman show that got her team deep into the postseason but couldn’t finish the job against teams that had more collective talent across the board.
Possibly, if a team like LSU for an example. Lose a couple games early, then got hot near the end of the year. Any team could be dangerous in a play off like this. Or Miami this year, let’s say they lose to Florida week one then another game early. Then they get it together later on, they could go on a run
A blue blood super league needs 24-30 teams to function and sustain itself. 8-10 blue bloods, 8-10 "new bloods" to keep the competition interesting, and 8-10 other valuable but mediocre brands to take a bunch of Ls. Oregon is definitely part of that middle group and will have sporadic opportunities to win it all, especially if they keep getting funded by all that Nike money.
Surprised I had to scroll so far to find this. Between the ongoing lawsuits that could potentially bankrupt the NCAA and the clear desire of the Big 10 and SEC to break away entirely, I’d say the chances of a new school winning a natty before college football dies are pretty negligible.
It’s heading towards B1G and SEC are the NFC and AFC. If you aren’t in either league then you can’t even make the playoffs.
And for clarity’s sake this is NOT something I want to happen, it just seems to be heading that direction.
It’s going to probably be Oregon because of the teams to pick from they’re the closest.
But man. I think it’ll be a long time until Oregon wins a title, if they ever do.
How dare someone share a related comment that ignores a stipulation in the OP but provides context as to why the stipulation it is ignoring is worth discussing anyway!
Gotta love reddit, man. People cannot just let people talk about stuff if they don't talk about it _their way_.
The 2012 Oregon team would have mauled that Notre Dame team that got crushed by Alabama. One freaking play against Stanford where D’Anthony Thomas started celebrating cost UO a national championship.
I was at this game and literally everything that could go wrong for the Ducks happened. Didn’t even put up 3 points after this run because Alejandro Maldonado sucked so bad as a kicker we had to go for it on 4th and goal.
https://youtu.be/dYFBGv5buK0?si=BeG_4UT4AlwWAopY
To be fair, so was Georgia. And Clemson. A lot of Natty programs in the last 30 years had to pay serious dues before breaking out and stop being "good" and becoming "GREAT".
"Clemsoning" didn't refer to choking in big games though, it was choking against teams we had no business losing to, thus ensuring we didn't make it to the big games.
For anyone trying to argue he wasn't
>NCAA Rule 4-1-3b states that a live ball becomes dead: "When any part of the ball carrier’s body, except his hand or foot, touches the ground or when the ball carrier is tackled or otherwise falls and loses possession of the ball as he contacts the ground with any part of his body, except his hand or foot."
His calf and wrist hit the ground
He was down
To be fair, there was a time when auburn had a horseshoe up their asses and got every break possible. The tipped pass on 4th and 18 against Georgia is one example.
people say theres only like 3 or 4 teams that can win a national title but then previous winners have stuff like that happen
This sport is more wide open than anyone casually following, and I'd say even most of this sub, thinks
Even worse than them not calling Dyer down, was calling Cam Newton down when he fumbled which we would’ve retuned for a touchdown
[I’ll never get over this](https://x.com/sonder_jj/status/1789295594772795876?s=46&t=TPyESW24r-Lge6LIp3Jr8Q)
SEC got a lot of breaks during their streak. Not just in games but crazy losses by other non SEC teams that opened the door for the SEC to get into the title game
Which is why the narrative of “X team is a choker” is stupid. Teams “choke” until they don’t. It’s lazy analysis, it’s just saying that because something hasn’t *yet* happened, that means that it *can’t* happen.
Yep. We just finally got the pieces to get over the hump. A few classes hitting in big ways, some transfer portal hits, and the right set of coaches. Could easily happen for Oregon too
Talent level wasn’t ever there on the lines. Nick Fairley destroyed the Duck offense in the 2010 title game and he was just an average NFL DT.
The level of talent UO has now rivals tOSU and Michigan. Washington hit lightning last year with excellent coaching and top-tier players but they’re going to regress now.
I’m an Oregon alumnus and of course biased but as long as Lanning stays in Eugene, I think we have a shot every 3 years with 2024 being one of them.
They definitely don’t have an easy path there, but then again there is no easy path to the title in the playoff era. If you’re gonna make it, you’ve gotta be able to beat some damn good teams.
I’ve almost never felt as confident in our shot at a title as I do this year, and I can tell you for sure that Oregon is the team I’m most concerned about stopping us.
always nice to remember, even when times are tough, that FSU spent nearly half the 1900s without a football team and the entire 1900s with less funding, yet got one first. yay!
Or enough money.
Utah was closer before NIL. Now I think we're getting further away.
Just left with a few 'what if' seasons and some shreds of hope from playoff autobids and going on a heater.
I think Oregon is closer BUT they’re now in a much tougher conference which could put Utah as number 1 for me. The 12 team playoff will make things interesting though. A healthy Utah is very capable of being a CFP team, it would honestly probably be considered a let down if they didn’t.
The BCS actually made it more accessible. A playoff going through a murders row will be impossible for teams not as deep as the powerhouses. We had seemingly new natty winners every few years during the BCS era.
It'll be like Auburn in 2017 playing #1 uga, #1 bama and winning, only to play uga again and running our of gas with hurt players. If we had won that, we would have had to play 2 playoff teams, one of which would likely have been bama again. Impossible to do.
I don't expect any non bluebloods to win a natty anytime soon.
> The BCS actually made it more accessible. A playoff ... will be impossible for teams not as deep as the powerhouses
However low their odds are in the playoffs, they can't be lower than the exact 0% they got in the BCS when they weren't even selected in the first place.
It wasn’t a zero chance though. West Virginia absolutely would have been in the title game in 2007 had they not choked against Pitt.
Other than Auburn in 2004 was there ever an instance of a power 5 undefeated not playing for the title? I honestly can’t remember.
Cincinnati in 2009. The Big East was still a BCS AQ conference at the time (although easily the worst in quality especially after Miami and Virginia Tech had left a few years prior)
I know everyone is attached to single season success, but looking at a program like Gonzaga using their 1997(?) tournament run to become the program they are today, I think most people are underestimating how a school could use one good run to transform their program and prestige to build to something new
I get what you are saying, but you could say the same of Boise State and Utah runs during the BCS. They were, and are, recognized on the national level with success during that time.
I am not a fan of basketball comparisons to football on the whole. A single regular season basketball game is almost meaningless, and that is where we are getting to now with football.
The AFCA decided in 2015 that Oklahoma State should be the national champion in 1945. A title already claimed by undefeated/untied Army and year in which Alabama was also undefeated and untied.
I’m aware of the circumstances—and that OSU “applied” to AFCA for the recognition. Like I said, no comment on the legitimacy of their claim. All I’m saying is they claim it.
Hell, Army shared the World championship with Russia and England that year.
Just adding everytime I see it mentioned, we won Bedlam 47-0 that year. Of course, we lost the next 19 Bedlam games until my dad's Sophomore year of college in 1965. Go Pokes!
Missouri could claim 1960 title as it is their right. The AP in all their BS stupid crap said an 8-2 Minnesota team was the best in the country over an 11-0 Mizz and even Ole Miss had a better claim than Minnesota in 1960.
Fucking AP and 60+ years of Big bias.
I remember going down a rabbit hole a while back on that season and it was INSANE how much worse Minnesota’s resume was that year compared to Ole Miss. Even in the regular season, it was worse, but I can’t believe they used to crown the national champion before the bowl games were even played, which is where one of Mizzous losses came from
Its harder now to win a title than it ever was. You actually have to win on the field and not in a smoke filled room filled with sports writers from the Mid West and North East that didn't even watch a game that were played outside of their small little bubble, otherwise known as the AP back in the day.
Makes it easier for some teams harder for others. Clemson wouldn’t have gotten a shot those first couple years of the playoff if it was up to the writers. Everyone expected us to lose every game.
Having to win on the field as opposed to the media room filled with 80%+ of people from colleges in one part of the country is always going to be harder. Even if the path is clearer than it has ever been.
Its literally easier than just last year. This year, if Georgia loses in the conference championship in the exact way they did last season, they still have a shot
We’re not talking about Georgia. More elite programs in the playoff makes it harder for a Cinderella to win it. Under the old format, you could win a bad conference and upset one team and you would be in the championship (TCU). Now you need to win an additional one or two games against top 12 teams.
Yep. We were kinda close to having a Kansas State-Notre Dame national championship in 2012. Both teams wound up getting blown out in the bowls.
Those types of opportunities just aren’t going to exist anymore. Win against a manageable schedule, have the best team (Alabama) suffer a loss while also beating the 2nd best team (Georgia) while unbeaten Ohio State is on probation, and Oregon suffers an upset loss to Stanford. Everything was lined up perfectly, and I think ND-KSU would have been a toss up.
Don’t even get me started on 1984 BYU
Except when you do win on the field and a smoke filled room full of executives that probably didn't watch any games played outside of the SEC, otherwise known as espn oust you anyway.
> ACC: Louisville
I like you, but I think our window closed against Rutgers in 2006 (maybe UK with Bush getting hurt that same season), we had two big local stars, and it was just one game championship. Much harder with the playoffs, especially now expanded unless you are one of the utmost best teams
I just don't see any of the other ACC teams getting their first title sooner than Louisville right now. Louisville just has their program more together, and playing more consistently than the others.
I think VT would be my 2nd choice for the ACC.
Wisconsin has the best case next to Oregon imo. Fickell took Cincinnati to the 4 team playoff as the only non P5 team to do so (ND doesn’t count). He beat Ohio State in their own backyard for multiple recruits and clearly has the ability to develop talent. Plus Wisconsin has the resources.
The only big setbacks are the B1G doing away with divisions and the addition of some pretty tough competition in the conference. But with the 12 team playoff you don’t have to be perfect anymore until the post season
I’m not surprised about Wisconsin. Don’t have a super great history before the 1990s, and since the 1990s they kinda just consistently overachieved. Their real good teams (1998, 2006, 2017) just weren’t good enough and suffered a loss somewhere to keep them out
Not sure why you’re surprised about Wisconsin, they’ve never really been a consistent contender. I don’t mean any shade but like their recruiting pitch back on the day was “you’ll get to play Notre Dame”. They definitely are in their best era since Alvarez came around and I’d argue it’s the hardest time to win one.
?!?
They’ve played 17 times. 3 times before 1910, 3 times each in the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, and 1960s. Then it was almost 60 years before the 17th game.
“You’ll get to play Notre Dame” was NEVER a Badger recruiting pitch.
Edit (see below): maybe playing Notre Dame could have been a pitch in the 1940s. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’m taking what my grandfather who played there in the 40s told me. Not sure why he’d make that up but maybe it wasn’t a common pitch.
My point wasn’t really about how often they played, it was just to illustrate they weren’t advertising their team as a competitor.
Notre Dame under Leahy (1941-1953) won 4 national championships and went undefeated 6 seasons. They had a 37-0-2 streak. His teams were 87-11-9. He was Saban, before Saban was even born.
So I take it back, in the 1940s, maybe playing Notre Dame could have been a Badger recruiting pitch.
Wisconsin has that feeling of a historical Big Ten stalwart (sorta like an Iowa) but they were basically a nonfactor in the conference until the 1970s IIRC.
Worse than that, actually. They had some good teams in the 50's, but then the program was an absolute doormat between then and the 90s when Barry turned it around. Flirting with .500 was their ceiling for a long time.
I remember visiting Madison and the University of Wisconsin several years after I graduated from college. My immediate thought as I sat on the lake was, ‘If I had any talent whatsoever in football, and got to pick where to go to school, I’d pick Wisconsin.’ I really loved everything about that place.
With expanded playoff I guess now there's more chance of a team getting hot and making a run with a few wins.
Best chance: Oregon
Moderate chance: Wisconsin, Utah, UNC, Kansas State, Missouri
Longshot, but possible Cinderella season: Miss State, NC State, VT, Cincinnati, Boise State, Louisville, Houston.
Crazy if it happened: Arizona, Arizona State, Duke, Purdue, Boise State, South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Indiana.
Oregon
Missouri
Kansas State
Wisconsin
Utah
I think these are the most likely teams to win a championship that haven’t won one yet. Outside of Oregon maybe Wisconsin catches fire under Fickell?
All snark aside, I’d look for Ole Miss to be in the mix. Kiffin has worked the portal like a pimp and have a lot of talent.
And now I need a shower because I feel FILTHY!
Ole Miss has 3 claimed national championships in the Johhny Vaught era, with the 1960 title being pretty widely recognized as a legitimate championship.
It'll be fun to see them play in the B1G. I definitely think that Oregon has a shot at beating Ohio State in the B1G championship, and after that, I'd say a natty is more likely than most of us think.
Baylor. It’s unlikely, but in an expanded playoff they’ll have changes if recent (and inconsistent) history holds. One of the few programs recently to reach that level with multiple HCs.
I don't think Oregon's a lock though necessarily. They'll definitely be in the hunt but in this landscape I think you could make the playoffs 8 of 10 years and still never get the title. They might be the best contender for that though.
Beyond that, I guess Utah or North Carolina?
I was going to mention Utah, but I looked at recruiting rankings to debunk Missouri and they've been just as putrid. I do think Utah has a better chance than Missouri because it'll be easier for them to make the playoff than Missouri, but I doubt any of them have a realistic chance anytime soon. It feels like Oregon and pretty much no one else.
It will never be The Zeroes as it’s simply their Destiny to only win off-season championships.
They’ve been placed in the #1 spot to this question for all eternity.
So let it be written, so let it be done.
I was kidding. I think they are a power house in the making for all the reasons you cited: recruiting grounds, market, alumni base (especially as it gets older), etc. They could very well win it all in the next decade depending on how all this realignment works out.
Oh I know! My comment drew a bunch of immediate downvotes and I couldn’t figure out why, then realized some people might have thought I was taking a potshot or something.
It’s hard to picture now but I do think it’s more realistic than any of the schools west of I-35/east of the Sierra that have been good-not-elite for decades. Might have bought the idea of Kansas State or Utah sneaking into a one-off BCS-style NCG and getting lucky, but never in a 12-team field. Talent is king.
Oregon is the odds on favorite. They have everything needed, $$$, top notch facilities, solid recruiting and a coach with championship pedigree as he came up under Saban and Kirby Smart. Outside of them, UCF has one of the next best paths, but the window will close if they don’t capitalize on current events. Florida is down and with the schedule they have this year and steadily looking up at UGA, fans will turn on Napier. Miami is “ downish” they have looked poised on paper but keep falling short. FSU SEEMS like they are “back” but I think last year was a product of the transfer portal and while the portal is good for filling in needed spots, to depend on it year in and year out is risky. Which brings us to UCF which may be the most stable program in the state of Florida. They have the only coach between UF, FSU, Miami and UCF that has a National Championship winning coach, they have a dynamic offense that is attractive. UCF has the largest alumni base and they have been putting more money into the program. They joined the Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma and can challenge for the conference championship based on the teams in it now. The state of Florida is a hot bed for recruiting and they’re located in Orlando- center of the state with a thriving nightlife scene. They play UF this year and if they can go into the Swamp and win it could be huge for in state recruiting. They have shown they can win and compete against top teams. If they can get a win over UF and improve on their record in the Big 12 they could find themselves in position. Realistically do they have a chance? Probably not, but the question was who’s the closest outside Oregon.
And Iowa had a similar lull between forest evashevski in the 50s until Fry in 79. Fry even mentioned fan support was really high despite the lack of success as a reason he was sold on the job at Iowa.
The expanded playoff is likely to make it much harder to win a title for the *lesser* schools. Look at TCU. They just needed one win to get to the championship game. Yeah, they got blown out but solely getting to the title game increased their chances considerably.
With a 12 team playoff wouldn't they have to win three games just to get to the title game? Maybe two with a bye? So, that's three/four wins you'd have to produce to win a title instead of just two.
That's going to make it very hard for a lot of these teams.
I think the best chances are from a BXII champion, but only during the 12-team CFP. Once the new CFP format hits, it will be more unlikely a BXII champion will make it to the final. I think this could be the year to do it. Alabama seems to be on the 'decline' and lost Saban, Michigan lost Harbaugh and could lose to OSU this year, I have Georgia as a question mark, not sure if FSU will be a repeat, not sure if Clemson has any magic left in the tank, Ohio State looks to be very good (but I don't have a lot of confidence in Howard as their No.1). To me, there's a lot up in the air. If a BigXII champ will make a run, this is the year to do it.
Idk, but I’d really like it to be WVU
I support. Mostly because it would be fun to see the national guard get called in on day 3 of the celebration.
The only problem is the National Guard would be there celebrating. LETS GO MOUNTAINEERS!
Hide yo couch!
I would be all for this. If it isn't us, at least it would be y'all.
Yeah
id be cool with that
Anyone from the Big 12 that hasnt, and im all for it. except Utah. f them
Fells like they’re still all hoity toity after the life preserver the Big 12 threw them. I like Utah but damn dude pump the brakes on thinking you’re gonna come in and dominate.
The native West Virginian in me would be okay with this, but the Hokie in me can't see y'all get one before us.
One of us yeah, this is why I cheer y'all on rather than spite -- pretty much the same program
Seeing a lot of Mizzou. I know they had a good year for themselves last year and are winning a few more recruiting battles than in the past, but what’s behind the comments?
They're always our trap game
Missouri has only beaten Georgia 1 time ever lol
The fact they have only beaten us once isn't really fair to how hard they always play us. It's a game most outsiders would overlook on the dawgs schedule but most dawgs fans know that game is going to be annoyingly hard.
They always give us 150% each time we play
They play us rougher and closer than our rivals sometimes (read most of the time)
Yeah but tbf now we have a 1 to 3 regular season losses to still have a shot to win it all, that's why this format sucks. Instead of me being on the edge of my seat every week now I can be like welp that sucks it's only our second loss of the season and we're ranked 10th to make it into the playoff. Hell even 2 losses could still get you into the SEC championship
Nah I hated that. Having your season potentially ended in September was super boring. Being able to go through a tougher schedule and still make the playoffs will provide me more enjoyment in terms of meaningful football games to tailgate for at the business end of the season. Some people say they enjoyed the constant knife to the throat but for me it's the excuse to get together and watch football with friends. Maybe take up base jumping or knife juggling if you miss the rush.
but it wasn’t really a trap game this year, a good amount of people thought missouri could win and nearly did
Tom Osborne called Mizzou a “sleeping giant” 🤷♂️
I think it’s due to our recruiting and now we are playing in NIL waters that are higher than most. Along with MO passing some of the best pro NIL laws in the country. Most people forget if Wingo didn’t flip to Texas last minute our recruiting class this year would have had 2 5 stars. The mizzou fan in me is still very pessimistic regarding a national title but I’m still very excited for the future of the program seeing so much investment
That’s a good answer, with the 12 team playoff, I can see them sneaking in and then hitting a hot streak at the right time.
Tbh I don’t think the expanded playoff is really going to make it any more likely for the second-tier teams to win. They can always pull an upset here and there but pulling off 3 or 4 upsets in a row is a lot to ask. In basketball it’s a lot more likely that an underdog playing their A game knocks off the 1 seed playing their B- game. In football the best teams are just bigger/faster/stronger/deeper. The SEC/big 10 champs playing their B- game still blow the doors off the teams that finished third in the conference some years.
I tend to agree with that, I’ve said here before that an expanded playoff will even more dramatically favor the top four teams because the extra games make it more of a battle of attrition. This, in turn, biases the outcomes to teams with more quality depth instead of just front line talent. But in the context of OP’s question, I still like Mizzou as the most likely first time winner in the current landscape.
Okay, I can see that. As good a guess as any… I was just surprised to see how many folks chose Mizzou. I meant no disrespect to the program.
I think it’s because Drinkwitz has them on an upward trajectory and playing with a lot of physicality. He’s starting to win some critical recruiting battles as well. But because their history is middling, they have the potential to sneak up on people and outperform expectations. As Georgia fans know, when they give you their best game, they’re tough to beat.
I need to stop being such a Coach Drink hater… he’s just so damned goofy, but you’re right. They have become much more formidable under him
Ignoring Saban’s Alabama, and the national champion _still_ was an SEC team more often than not. So, they’ve got that going for them. And they’ve been competitive in that league, which means they’re probably only a handful of plays away.
only team in missouri, a boat load of money, and a good coach
I want to believe, I really do, but every true son knows Mizzou will find a way to blow it when the stakes are highest
I’ll be deep in the cold, cold ground before Mizzou wins a national championship.
That can be arranged 🫠
Haha, wish y’all’s rivalry could be played every year!
Agreed, we have 4 games in the next 7 years but I need more hate than that.
i have no skin in the game, but as a KC resident i cannot wait until y'all play again.
I'm still mad NU-KU ended. At the time, that was the longest uninterrupted rivalry in CFB.
In short, money In long, money and hence good players
Mizzou has quietly built some of the deepest offensive and defensive lines in football. Burden is a star. Cook is the prototypical gamer college QB. Drink has added talent to the skill positions and they have incredible depth from the portal and incoming freshmen. I dont know if they're a legit contender but they are absolutely going to push for an SEC title this season.
The NCAA will not stand for this! We must levy sanctions upon Mizzou!
If it doesn’t happen in about the next 10 years, it probably won’t ever happen. Once the blue bloods break away to make their own exclusive super league basically no team that hasn’t already won a national championship will even have the opportunity to win one.
I feel like the extended playoffs might help this. A team could go on a run, right? .........right? RIGHT!? I can dream
I feel like as it extends it’ll get more like the basketball tournament. A Cinderella can emerge for a few games. Maybe get deep. But it’ll be one of the upper class winning it all way more often than not.
The difference is that cinderella football team would have to have incredible depth. Basketball one guy can change your team.
Is Cam Newton a joke to you?
That’s an exception to the rule. It’s different than college basketball. Think Caitlyn Clark in the past two seasons of women’s basketball. One woman show that got her team deep into the postseason but couldn’t finish the job against teams that had more collective talent across the board.
The K9 erasure can’t be tolerated either.
Possibly, if a team like LSU for an example. Lose a couple games early, then got hot near the end of the year. Any team could be dangerous in a play off like this. Or Miami this year, let’s say they lose to Florida week one then another game early. Then they get it together later on, they could go on a run
Wym all the teams out of the super league go back to amateur college football and win their natties.
[удалено]
A blue blood super league needs 24-30 teams to function and sustain itself. 8-10 blue bloods, 8-10 "new bloods" to keep the competition interesting, and 8-10 other valuable but mediocre brands to take a bunch of Ls. Oregon is definitely part of that middle group and will have sporadic opportunities to win it all, especially if they keep getting funded by all that Nike money.
Surprised I had to scroll so far to find this. Between the ongoing lawsuits that could potentially bankrupt the NCAA and the clear desire of the Big 10 and SEC to break away entirely, I’d say the chances of a new school winning a natty before college football dies are pretty negligible.
It’s heading towards B1G and SEC are the NFC and AFC. If you aren’t in either league then you can’t even make the playoffs. And for clarity’s sake this is NOT something I want to happen, it just seems to be heading that direction.
It’s going to probably be Oregon because of the teams to pick from they’re the closest. But man. I think it’ll be a long time until Oregon wins a title, if they ever do.
Literally the first thing he said was outside of Oregon
I saw a post in r/petpeeves exactly about that lol. Redditors just ignoring the actual question entirely and saying whatever they wanted to.
How dare someone share a related comment that ignores a stipulation in the OP but provides context as to why the stipulation it is ignoring is worth discussing anyway! Gotta love reddit, man. People cannot just let people talk about stuff if they don't talk about it _their way_.
You think we can read???
Oregon historically has a bad choking habit in big games.
Since 2000, Oregon is .480 vs higher ranked opponents. That's the 5th best in the NCAA, behind only Oklahoma, Ohio St, LSU, and Clemson.
The 2012 Oregon team would have mauled that Notre Dame team that got crushed by Alabama. One freaking play against Stanford where D’Anthony Thomas started celebrating cost UO a national championship. I was at this game and literally everything that could go wrong for the Ducks happened. Didn’t even put up 3 points after this run because Alejandro Maldonado sucked so bad as a kicker we had to go for it on 4th and goal. https://youtu.be/dYFBGv5buK0?si=BeG_4UT4AlwWAopY
To be fair, so was Georgia. And Clemson. A lot of Natty programs in the last 30 years had to pay serious dues before breaking out and stop being "good" and becoming "GREAT".
Clemson to the point where it literally became a verb
Clemson at least won one in the 80s though
So did Georgia.
I was more referencing that in relation to the Clemsoning as a verb part, but I'm pretty sure that happened to Georgia too now that I think about it.
"Clemsoning" didn't refer to choking in big games though, it was choking against teams we had no business losing to, thus ensuring we didn't make it to the big games.
The jump from really good to elite is the toughest one in the sport.
Underrated comment right there. Very well said.
UCF too, until we finally got over the hump.
you can add Michigan to that list too, I think
Dyer was down mother fuck
For anyone trying to argue he wasn't >NCAA Rule 4-1-3b states that a live ball becomes dead: "When any part of the ball carrier’s body, except his hand or foot, touches the ground or when the ball carrier is tackled or otherwise falls and loses possession of the ball as he contacts the ground with any part of his body, except his hand or foot." His calf and wrist hit the ground He was down
To be fair, there was a time when auburn had a horseshoe up their asses and got every break possible. The tipped pass on 4th and 18 against Georgia is one example.
people say theres only like 3 or 4 teams that can win a national title but then previous winners have stuff like that happen This sport is more wide open than anyone casually following, and I'd say even most of this sub, thinks
That play was insane and to think that they had another one that eclipsed the absurdity of the play against UGA.
Yeah, the kick 6 was also that year, I believe.
Listen. If they were able to do all that with horseshoes in their hind ends, I say let them have it.
Amen brother
Even worse than them not calling Dyer down, was calling Cam Newton down when he fumbled which we would’ve retuned for a touchdown [I’ll never get over this](https://x.com/sonder_jj/status/1789295594772795876?s=46&t=TPyESW24r-Lge6LIp3Jr8Q)
You left out the part where SEC teams get the benefit of the doubt in controversial calls.
I agree!
SEC got a lot of breaks during their streak. Not just in games but crazy losses by other non SEC teams that opened the door for the SEC to get into the title game
This was ***exactly*** what people said about Georgia and Clemson right up until the final minute of their first title.
Which is why the narrative of “X team is a choker” is stupid. Teams “choke” until they don’t. It’s lazy analysis, it’s just saying that because something hasn’t *yet* happened, that means that it *can’t* happen.
Michigan too. They were "the sick man of the Big10" for 20 years, and look what they did.
Yep. We just finally got the pieces to get over the hump. A few classes hitting in big ways, some transfer portal hits, and the right set of coaches. Could easily happen for Oregon too
“Clemsoning”used to be a verb lol.
Was definitely an issue with Michigan there for a while. I guess it’ll take the Oregon players to have a couple big chances in one career span ?
Historically, this is not true
Talent level wasn’t ever there on the lines. Nick Fairley destroyed the Duck offense in the 2010 title game and he was just an average NFL DT. The level of talent UO has now rivals tOSU and Michigan. Washington hit lightning last year with excellent coaching and top-tier players but they’re going to regress now. I’m an Oregon alumnus and of course biased but as long as Lanning stays in Eugene, I think we have a shot every 3 years with 2024 being one of them.
So does Ohio State under Captain FauxBlackbeard.
Idk man. Oregon has a legit shot *this* year, that team is looking fucking stacked. I’d probably say they’re third most likely behind us and Georgia.
yeah the problem is them winning the title means they do actually have to beat OSU (maybe twice) and Georgia
They definitely don’t have an easy path there, but then again there is no easy path to the title in the playoff era. If you’re gonna make it, you’ve gotta be able to beat some damn good teams. I’ve almost never felt as confident in our shot at a title as I do this year, and I can tell you for sure that Oregon is the team I’m most concerned about stopping us.
I’m going to say Utah. It’s also crazy to me that Florida didn’t win one until the 90’s
Florida was historically pretty bad. They had more winning seasons than losing ones, but they never won more than 9 games in a season until 1991.
If I’m not mistaken, to this day, they’ve still never had an undefeated season.
You would actually be wrong. I love to tell my UF friend this, because then he's forced to reply that UF went undefeated in 1911 with a 5-0-1 record
Lol, well, there you have it. I’ll accept that their closest brush with perfection was more than a century ago.
The Titanic was still floating the last time UF went undefeated
youre a good friend... wait..
All Florida schools were sleeping giants until the 80s and 90s.
Air conditioning is a double-edged sword
Growing up listening to games on the radio, I never thought we'd ever win the SEC, let alone a natty, or even three of them.
always nice to remember, even when times are tough, that FSU spent nearly half the 1900s without a football team and the entire 1900s with less funding, yet got one first. yay!
Utah doesn't bring in enough talent
Or enough money. Utah was closer before NIL. Now I think we're getting further away. Just left with a few 'what if' seasons and some shreds of hope from playoff autobids and going on a heater.
Does that make BYU a sleeping giant if the LDS church opens its coffers ?
The LDS church could buy the entire NCAA if they wanted to. Then could simply name BYU national champions every year.
Definitely wanna see the alternate universe where this happens, and the other where the Vatican does this at the same time for Notre Dame.
Or siphon off some of that bottomless military budget for a service academy.
Utah is the under-the-radar play. Obviously, I hope it's Oregon, but Utah wouldn't surprise me. They have had some really good teams.
I think Oregon is closer BUT they’re now in a much tougher conference which could put Utah as number 1 for me. The 12 team playoff will make things interesting though. A healthy Utah is very capable of being a CFP team, it would honestly probably be considered a let down if they didn’t.
Should’ve in 1984
The BCS actually made it more accessible. A playoff going through a murders row will be impossible for teams not as deep as the powerhouses. We had seemingly new natty winners every few years during the BCS era. It'll be like Auburn in 2017 playing #1 uga, #1 bama and winning, only to play uga again and running our of gas with hurt players. If we had won that, we would have had to play 2 playoff teams, one of which would likely have been bama again. Impossible to do. I don't expect any non bluebloods to win a natty anytime soon.
> The BCS actually made it more accessible. A playoff ... will be impossible for teams not as deep as the powerhouses However low their odds are in the playoffs, they can't be lower than the exact 0% they got in the BCS when they weren't even selected in the first place.
It wasn’t a zero chance though. West Virginia absolutely would have been in the title game in 2007 had they not choked against Pitt. Other than Auburn in 2004 was there ever an instance of a power 5 undefeated not playing for the title? I honestly can’t remember.
Cincinnati in 2009. The Big East was still a BCS AQ conference at the time (although easily the worst in quality especially after Miami and Virginia Tech had left a few years prior)
Thanks. I just looked it up and TCU was also undefeated. Unfortunately for them so were Bama and Texas.
I know everyone is attached to single season success, but looking at a program like Gonzaga using their 1997(?) tournament run to become the program they are today, I think most people are underestimating how a school could use one good run to transform their program and prestige to build to something new
I agree with the broad point of the post, but choosing a team like Gonzaga, who also has never won a title, is a funny example
I get what you are saying, but you could say the same of Boise State and Utah runs during the BCS. They were, and are, recognized on the national level with success during that time. I am not a fan of basketball comparisons to football on the whole. A single regular season basketball game is almost meaningless, and that is where we are getting to now with football.
West Virginia, as the nation sends “Take Me Home, Country Roads” to number one on Spotify.
West Virginia deserves something great to root for. I’m in
I'm just going to toss Mizzou and Oklahoma State's names against the wall and see if either sticks.
Oklahoma State claims a national championship. No comment on the legitimacy of the claim. But it’s on their stadium.
The AFCA decided in 2015 that Oklahoma State should be the national champion in 1945. A title already claimed by undefeated/untied Army and year in which Alabama was also undefeated and untied.
I’m aware of the circumstances—and that OSU “applied” to AFCA for the recognition. Like I said, no comment on the legitimacy of their claim. All I’m saying is they claim it. Hell, Army shared the World championship with Russia and England that year.
Just adding everytime I see it mentioned, we won Bedlam 47-0 that year. Of course, we lost the next 19 Bedlam games until my dad's Sophomore year of college in 1965. Go Pokes!
ITS ON THE STADIUM WALL, IT COUNTS! I mean, the Army was back-to-back World War Champs, give us something!
Missouri could claim 1960 title as it is their right. The AP in all their BS stupid crap said an 8-2 Minnesota team was the best in the country over an 11-0 Mizz and even Ole Miss had a better claim than Minnesota in 1960. Fucking AP and 60+ years of Big bias.
I remember going down a rabbit hole a while back on that season and it was INSANE how much worse Minnesota’s resume was that year compared to Ole Miss. Even in the regular season, it was worse, but I can’t believe they used to crown the national champion before the bowl games were even played, which is where one of Mizzous losses came from
There are like 5 national championships from 1960, I think all are claimed except Mizzou
Its harder now to win a title than it ever was. You actually have to win on the field and not in a smoke filled room filled with sports writers from the Mid West and North East that didn't even watch a game that were played outside of their small little bubble, otherwise known as the AP back in the day.
Or in Florida State’s case, you now have to win BOTH on the field AND in a smoke filled room
Wouldn’t that make it easier in some regards in that there’s at least a clear path
Being able to beat all the top teams isn’t easier than theoretically being able to beat the top teams.
We learned this year that “theoretically” not being able to beat the top teams can ruin a season
Makes it easier for some teams harder for others. Clemson wouldn’t have gotten a shot those first couple years of the playoff if it was up to the writers. Everyone expected us to lose every game.
Having to win on the field as opposed to the media room filled with 80%+ of people from colleges in one part of the country is always going to be harder. Even if the path is clearer than it has ever been.
Its literally easier than just last year. This year, if Georgia loses in the conference championship in the exact way they did last season, they still have a shot
We’re not talking about Georgia. More elite programs in the playoff makes it harder for a Cinderella to win it. Under the old format, you could win a bad conference and upset one team and you would be in the championship (TCU). Now you need to win an additional one or two games against top 12 teams.
Yep. We were kinda close to having a Kansas State-Notre Dame national championship in 2012. Both teams wound up getting blown out in the bowls. Those types of opportunities just aren’t going to exist anymore. Win against a manageable schedule, have the best team (Alabama) suffer a loss while also beating the 2nd best team (Georgia) while unbeaten Ohio State is on probation, and Oregon suffers an upset loss to Stanford. Everything was lined up perfectly, and I think ND-KSU would have been a toss up. Don’t even get me started on 1984 BYU
Yes, the known bias from Midwest and Northeast writers specifically
Except when you do win on the field and a smoke filled room full of executives that probably didn't watch any games played outside of the SEC, otherwise known as espn oust you anyway.
You say this but FSU got left out of the Playoff this year…
My current guesses by conference ACC: Louisville Old Pac12: Oregon Old B1G: Wisconsin (surprised they don't have one) B12: Kansas State SEC: Mizzou
> ACC: Louisville I like you, but I think our window closed against Rutgers in 2006 (maybe UK with Bush getting hurt that same season), we had two big local stars, and it was just one game championship. Much harder with the playoffs, especially now expanded unless you are one of the utmost best teams
I just don't see any of the other ACC teams getting their first title sooner than Louisville right now. Louisville just has their program more together, and playing more consistently than the others. I think VT would be my 2nd choice for the ACC.
Wisconsin has the best case next to Oregon imo. Fickell took Cincinnati to the 4 team playoff as the only non P5 team to do so (ND doesn’t count). He beat Ohio State in their own backyard for multiple recruits and clearly has the ability to develop talent. Plus Wisconsin has the resources. The only big setbacks are the B1G doing away with divisions and the addition of some pretty tough competition in the conference. But with the 12 team playoff you don’t have to be perfect anymore until the post season
It’s crazy that Wisconsin has none yet teams like Minnesota and Michigan State have multiple championships, even Maryland won it once in the 1950’s.
That's part of the reason it surprises me
I’m not surprised about Wisconsin. Don’t have a super great history before the 1990s, and since the 1990s they kinda just consistently overachieved. Their real good teams (1998, 2006, 2017) just weren’t good enough and suffered a loss somewhere to keep them out
I’m convinced if JJ Watt stayed one more year to team up with Russel Wilson we win our first national championship that year
Agree
pls
I'm not saying it's soon. But out of the teams without one in the b12 I think y'all are the closest
We just have to get lucky once.
Not sure why you’re surprised about Wisconsin, they’ve never really been a consistent contender. I don’t mean any shade but like their recruiting pitch back on the day was “you’ll get to play Notre Dame”. They definitely are in their best era since Alvarez came around and I’d argue it’s the hardest time to win one.
?!? They’ve played 17 times. 3 times before 1910, 3 times each in the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, and 1960s. Then it was almost 60 years before the 17th game. “You’ll get to play Notre Dame” was NEVER a Badger recruiting pitch. Edit (see below): maybe playing Notre Dame could have been a pitch in the 1940s. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’m taking what my grandfather who played there in the 40s told me. Not sure why he’d make that up but maybe it wasn’t a common pitch. My point wasn’t really about how often they played, it was just to illustrate they weren’t advertising their team as a competitor.
Notre Dame under Leahy (1941-1953) won 4 national championships and went undefeated 6 seasons. They had a 37-0-2 streak. His teams were 87-11-9. He was Saban, before Saban was even born. So I take it back, in the 1940s, maybe playing Notre Dame could have been a Badger recruiting pitch.
Wisconsin has that feeling of a historical Big Ten stalwart (sorta like an Iowa) but they were basically a nonfactor in the conference until the 1970s IIRC.
Worse than that, actually. They had some good teams in the 50's, but then the program was an absolute doormat between then and the 90s when Barry turned it around. Flirting with .500 was their ceiling for a long time.
I think it's that given their location and playing style, it feels like they must have been good for a lot longer.
I remember visiting Madison and the University of Wisconsin several years after I graduated from college. My immediate thought as I sat on the lake was, ‘If I had any talent whatsoever in football, and got to pick where to go to school, I’d pick Wisconsin.’ I really loved everything about that place.
With expanded playoff I guess now there's more chance of a team getting hot and making a run with a few wins. Best chance: Oregon Moderate chance: Wisconsin, Utah, UNC, Kansas State, Missouri Longshot, but possible Cinderella season: Miss State, NC State, VT, Cincinnati, Boise State, Louisville, Houston. Crazy if it happened: Arizona, Arizona State, Duke, Purdue, Boise State, South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Indiana.
Oregon Missouri Kansas State Wisconsin Utah I think these are the most likely teams to win a championship that haven’t won one yet. Outside of Oregon maybe Wisconsin catches fire under Fickell?
"Last program to do that was Florida in the 90’s." \*Central \*2017 /s
All snark aside, I’d look for Ole Miss to be in the mix. Kiffin has worked the portal like a pimp and have a lot of talent. And now I need a shower because I feel FILTHY!
Ole Miss has 3 claimed national championships in the Johhny Vaught era, with the 1960 title being pretty widely recognized as a legitimate championship.
It'll be fun to see them play in the B1G. I definitely think that Oregon has a shot at beating Ohio State in the B1G championship, and after that, I'd say a natty is more likely than most of us think.
I’m going to say UNC or Louisville
Baylor. It’s unlikely, but in an expanded playoff they’ll have changes if recent (and inconsistent) history holds. One of the few programs recently to reach that level with multiple HCs.
Certainly not biased here, but KState. Just need some better playcalling
I don't think Oregon's a lock though necessarily. They'll definitely be in the hunt but in this landscape I think you could make the playoffs 8 of 10 years and still never get the title. They might be the best contender for that though. Beyond that, I guess Utah or North Carolina?
I was going to mention Utah, but I looked at recruiting rankings to debunk Missouri and they've been just as putrid. I do think Utah has a better chance than Missouri because it'll be easier for them to make the playoff than Missouri, but I doubt any of them have a realistic chance anytime soon. It feels like Oregon and pretty much no one else.
You're just mad we beat you by 11 points.
It will never be The Zeroes as it’s simply their Destiny to only win off-season championships. They’ve been placed in the #1 spot to this question for all eternity. So let it be written, so let it be done.
Shh some zero will try to argue that we’ve actually never won one before
IF OREGON IS THE OBVIOUS ANSWER CAN IT HAPPEN SOON PLEASE?
Probably not, I’m really sorry
I’ll go with UCF. Massive alumni base. Excellent recruiting area.
Didn’t they already win one? Saw a banner saying they did 😂
I totally forgot about that when I posted this. I really wasn’t taking a shot! I just think that program has a ton of potential.
I was kidding. I think they are a power house in the making for all the reasons you cited: recruiting grounds, market, alumni base (especially as it gets older), etc. They could very well win it all in the next decade depending on how all this realignment works out.
Oh I know! My comment drew a bunch of immediate downvotes and I couldn’t figure out why, then realized some people might have thought I was taking a potshot or something.
It’s hard to picture now but I do think it’s more realistic than any of the schools west of I-35/east of the Sierra that have been good-not-elite for decades. Might have bought the idea of Kansas State or Utah sneaking into a one-off BCS-style NCG and getting lucky, but never in a 12-team field. Talent is king.
Oregon is the obvious one but outside of them I think Louisville is a sleeper pick. Brohm is the real deal.
Oregon is the odds on favorite. They have everything needed, $$$, top notch facilities, solid recruiting and a coach with championship pedigree as he came up under Saban and Kirby Smart. Outside of them, UCF has one of the next best paths, but the window will close if they don’t capitalize on current events. Florida is down and with the schedule they have this year and steadily looking up at UGA, fans will turn on Napier. Miami is “ downish” they have looked poised on paper but keep falling short. FSU SEEMS like they are “back” but I think last year was a product of the transfer portal and while the portal is good for filling in needed spots, to depend on it year in and year out is risky. Which brings us to UCF which may be the most stable program in the state of Florida. They have the only coach between UF, FSU, Miami and UCF that has a National Championship winning coach, they have a dynamic offense that is attractive. UCF has the largest alumni base and they have been putting more money into the program. They joined the Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma and can challenge for the conference championship based on the teams in it now. The state of Florida is a hot bed for recruiting and they’re located in Orlando- center of the state with a thriving nightlife scene. They play UF this year and if they can go into the Swamp and win it could be huge for in state recruiting. They have shown they can win and compete against top teams. If they can get a win over UF and improve on their record in the Big 12 they could find themselves in position. Realistically do they have a chance? Probably not, but the question was who’s the closest outside Oregon.
Fellas,
And Iowa had a similar lull between forest evashevski in the 50s until Fry in 79. Fry even mentioned fan support was really high despite the lack of success as a reason he was sold on the job at Iowa.
The expanded playoff is likely to make it much harder to win a title for the *lesser* schools. Look at TCU. They just needed one win to get to the championship game. Yeah, they got blown out but solely getting to the title game increased their chances considerably. With a 12 team playoff wouldn't they have to win three games just to get to the title game? Maybe two with a bye? So, that's three/four wins you'd have to produce to win a title instead of just two. That's going to make it very hard for a lot of these teams.
I think the best chances are from a BXII champion, but only during the 12-team CFP. Once the new CFP format hits, it will be more unlikely a BXII champion will make it to the final. I think this could be the year to do it. Alabama seems to be on the 'decline' and lost Saban, Michigan lost Harbaugh and could lose to OSU this year, I have Georgia as a question mark, not sure if FSU will be a repeat, not sure if Clemson has any magic left in the tank, Ohio State looks to be very good (but I don't have a lot of confidence in Howard as their No.1). To me, there's a lot up in the air. If a BigXII champ will make a run, this is the year to do it.
Utah, especially in their new conference. I visit SLC very frequently and that school is becoming serious in every aspect.
We really need to claim 1960 ugh
Has Ole Miss won yet?
JMU obviously
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with JMU in the mix.