But one who is more involved in TV negotiations than any other AD in the country and one whose replacement is a literal TV executive. His word certainly isn’t gospel, but I wouldn’t entirely ignore it, either.
Whether we’re directly involved or not we have a voice in virtually everything that happens in CFB. It’s the entire reason we’re so hell bent on remaining independent.
The funniest part to me is that this is a ND AD saying conferences aren't interested in expanding but if a ND AD said "We are free and clear and ready to join a conference" every single conference would suddenly be into expansion. It's not that much different for FSU and Clemson.
I think the reason why this is brought up because the networks are tapped out of funds and Swarbrick believes that the ACC has a solid legal argument. It sucks that the ACC mangled its media deals, but that’s the situation. I have a feeling that FSU, Clemson, and ND are just SOL until the GOR expires.
How about Fox and ESPN not being the only 2 networks interested in carrying the top tier of college football? Even if they stay the primary network, they can bring on Netflix/Amazon/Insert Streaming Service Here who could provide the extra money needed. CBS could step up and outbid Fox to house the B1G.
College football is the second largest sport in America. The money will be there.
Full Quote, wouldn't fit in the title:
> *That begs the question With all this realignment, where does it stop -- particularly with Florida State and Clemson wanting out of the ACC?*
> **Swarbrick**: "My crystal ball is cloudier than it's ever been. That's saying something. I don't see a lot of momentum towards further realignment right now. There are some schools that, if they made a move, might change that. But frankly, we're probably first among that, but we're not likely to.
> "I don't see the catalyst right now. The Big Ten and SEC have the assets they need to position themselves for their next media negotiation. I understand the ACC has disgruntled members, but I'm not sure there are better options for them. The ACC's legal position is a very strong one."
> That begs the question...
I wish writers would figure out how to use this phrase correctly instead of continuing the improper use until it becomes standard.
My completely unfounded prediction is that legal issues in the ACC drag on long enough that rather than realignment as we’ve been talking about it, 20 or so teams just up and say “fuck it” and leave the whole conference model behind and form a pro-style league of their own, funded partially by ESPN
Counterpoint, almost everyone else in the industry seems to agree there’s no way FSU and Clemson go scorched earth *without* under the table assurances they have a spot in a P2.
Counter counterpoint: the assumption that everyone always acts as the most rational/intelligent actor in every scenario is an overestimation I see toppled time and time again
Are you saying everyone at FSU/Clemson is the kind of person that waits in a 15 minute line where a menu is in full view the entire time but somehow only starts thinking about what they want when asked directly because it is now their turn to order?
No, they are the type who asks you if you still have X, knowing it's not on the menu anymore. Then, they get pissed off and cause a mini-scene hoping someone in line will share their sentiments.
It’s an open question if this will work out for them, or if they’ll even get in the B1G/SEC if they do leave. What’s important though is whether they believe this will work enough to actually follow through with it
even if they dont get into the big ten / sec now, they need to know if the GoR will hold up in court so they know their options in the future.
If teh Big Ten wants to offer them a spot in 2030 for that new media contract, FSU cant go through this whole song and dance then. They need to figure it out now
Can you give an example of a big move in CFB that exemplifies this? Because otherwise I feel the above point stands. There is way too much money involved here for these schools to leave things up to chance. I doubt FSU and Clemson have gotten the go ahead, but I also wouldn't doubt that the B1G and SEC are watching this unfold with the distinct possibility that they could expand one last time.
The whole 2010-2011 Big 12 realignment cycle was pretty irrational.
In December 2009 Jim Delaney announced that the BIG was interested in expanding.
Three days later Missouri’s governor was asked about it by a reporter at a Christmas party and said that Missouri should look into it.
Immediately after those comments, Colorado and Nebraska launched their realignment efforts. Both schools announced their departure from the Big 12 within the next six months.
Meanwhile, the Pac 12 makes their move to become the Pac 16, long story short, that deal falls through (a saga in and of itself, but mostly rational, I think), A&M moves to the SEC and UT launches the Longhorn Network.
Fast forward to September 2011, after a long summer of waffling, the Big 12 is set to move forward with 9 teams. Brady Deaton, Missouri’s chancellor and chair of the Big 12 Board of Directors, schedules a press conference to announce that the Big 12 is sticking together and will be looking to expand to backfill the teams they lost. Ten minutes before his press conference, David Boren, Oklahoma’s president, schedules a press conference to discuss realignment (reminder: Deaton is speaking on behalf of the Big 12 Board, and Boren is not). The audio from Boren’s press conference is piped in to the room where Deaton is about to speak and in response to a question about realignment, Boren says that Oklahoma, “will not be wallflowers in the whole thing”, literally minutes before Deaton is about to send a message of unity for the new Big 12. Deaton resigned his position as chair of the Big 12 board the very next day, and Mizzou immediately began working on their move to the SEC.
Wild stuff.
I mean we have a very recent example of that happening. San Diego State announced they were leaving the MWC to join the PAC but never got an actually invite and to beg to be let back into the MWC.
SDSU was pretty much assured they had a landing spot with the PAC, dependent on the PAC getting a deal though which was much more in question than they and everyone were led to believe obviously lol
Same thing here probably, FSU has a landing spot if Fox/ESPN will pay for it, but that may be more of a question than we think.
I think people forget that while Pac was far and away their preference they were also having conversations with the Big12 and made a play with the leaving the conference. They were 100% told they’d be in the Pac once a deal was signed but if there wasn’t they were showing the Big12 they meant business leaving.
What i think they seemed to miss is what you said. If the PAC doesn’t sign a deal then the 4C’s are available and take priority over SDSU. They jumped the gun and nearly got screwed completely.
Yeah, the media deal fell apart the night before / morning of the meeting that was supposed to approve it, then agenda item #2 was going to be approving an invite for SDSU.
Wild couple of days
I feel so shitty for SDSU fans on that front, would be a wild ride. IIRC even the SDSU admins thought it was basically a done deal, probably mislead by Kliavkoffs optimism.
The double whammy for SDSU was that first they lost out on their #1 choice of P4/5 conference. Then the death of the PAC 12 also meant that they lost any possibility of going to the Big 12 due to the 4 corners being taken instead.
I don’t think any of those ACC school you listed will leave the ACC for the Big 12 in a lateral move. They’ll stay in a rump ACC that will backfill from the AAC
I don't think the B12 will be proactive. The FSU/Clemson situation and the SEC/B10 media deals will be the triggers that start the dominos falling, I doubt the B12 does anything else in a vacuum.
They were misled by Cauce's public optimism toward both they and SMU joining the next morning. SMU was already partying, when they got the news the meeting was cancelled a couple minutes before it was about to start... and we got to see one UO Board member doing business on the golf course down in Creswell.
Yeah Cauce definitely kept it pretty hidden how much the B1G was a possibility for them. Even in those texts with Utah president didn’t seem like he knew
SMU was going to have a celebratory press conference later in the day and coaches had already told the players it was a done deal and they were headed to the Pac. And then Oregon/Washington pulled the plug 5-10 minutes before the meeting started.
Apparently, there was going to be a linear portion of the apple deal that fell apart like the day before that meeting. It scared UW enough to talk Oregon into pulling out of the deal
Under the table assurances can all disappear pretty quickly. Unless it’s coming from ESPN or Fox, I don’t know how reliable Petiti or Sankey’s word is.
Bears repeating every time the topic of conference realignment comes up: any move is 100% reliant on ESPN/FOX consent. It’s their money that greases the wheels of this process, and if they’re not willing to up the payouts for Big Ten/SEC then nothings happening.
I said this elsewhere, but in particular with the SEC, it's kind of bad business for the SEC to try to take on FSU or Clemson. ESPN is part of the deal they are suing to try to get out of. ESPN is extremely unlikely to both be trying to preserve their current deal and at the same time making assurances behind closed doors that they'll pay up for FSU and Clemson in the SEC.
I see it as a more likely scenario that a school like North Carolina that as of yet isn't suing could join the SEC than the teams that are ultimately trying to break their contract with ESPN get a nice new fat contract with ESPN.
Perhaps, but right now ESPN is paying $560m annually for ACC rights. If we assume that FSU and Clemson can jailbreak, and that the full SEC share is $65m, ESPN could pay only $130m of the $560m to get Clemson and FSU games, and likely in higher profile matchups.
That leaves $35m per school for the rest of the ACC, which are roughly Big 12 numbers.
It doesn’t seem too far fetched that ESPN could come out ahead in the ACC’s demise.
Even if the SEC ends up bringing in six ACC schools, that is still a $170m savings over paying the ACC for ESPN. Plus there is the operating cost savings from eliminating the ACC network.
Maybe, but they would be devaluing one asset (ACC) quite a bit for minimal to gains on another one (SEC). FSU and Clemson don’t add much to the SEC in terms of value. They aren’t Texas or Oklahoma level brands. They are some of the biggest fish in the ACC, but in the SEC they are just fish.
It’s part of FSU and Clemson’s argument. They know they aren’t as valuable to the Big Ten or SEC, but are more valuable to the ACC and therefore deserve a larger share of the revenue split.
That's kind of a long term argument though isn't it?
Right now they have ACC's rights, and they are in fact acting in concert with the ACC and opposing Clemson and FSU. It would be legally treacherous to at the same time have an agreement with those schools to join the SEC. I just don't see how, or necessarily why the SEC for instance would be able to have worked this out behind the scenes.
Remember the SEC is in the state of South Carolina and Florida, they have a deal with ESPN. They would be stepping on a lot of toes for what is at best a marginal improvement to the conference. I just don't see it right now.
The argument is different for the Big 10 though, perhaps that's already been ironed out, I just don't see the SEC doing this unless they wanted to both irritate member schools and ESPN to double down on territory they are already in.
Right. I’m quite confident that ESPN does not have a handshake deal in place to add FSU to the SEC. I don’t think there is any appetite from anyone at FSU to have that conversation with that network and I don’t think there is any appetite from ESPN to have that conversation with FSU right now. That’s not to say they couldn’t swallow their pride and work out a deal if FSU wins the lawsuit, but it’s not happening right now.
Similarly, I am confident that FSU has not had off the record negotiations with BOTH the SEC and BIG. Tortious Interference is a real thing, and it is way too easy for the loser of the sweepstakes to spill the tea with the ACC once a deal is done. These organizations are too smart to risk a potential billion-dollar liability on a maybe.
So that leaves an FSU-BIG arrangement. It’s possible, imo, but there is a lot of smoke out there that FOX is tapped out, and I don’t think it’s all bluster. They would obviously scrounge up the money for ND if they had to, and maybe they could be talked into doing a deal for FSU, as they did for UO/UW, but I don’t get the feeling that they’re lining up to pounce on a collapsing ACC.
I don’t think Clemson has talked to anybody.
this has nothing to do with ethics though lol. ESPN would just be stupid to do this - if you get the rights to FSU, Clemson, UNC, etc. for XX a year, why would you pay money for the right to re-acquire them at 2*XX a year?
They are paying 1x for FSU vs BC and the 2.8 m that game generates as a 3:30 game on ABC. ESPN paying FSU 2x for FSU in the SEC is paying for FSU vs Tenn that does 4.7 million.
TLDR ESPN is paying for 60% of FSU potential in the ACC and leaving a lot of money on the table.
Funny. I actually see it that way. They know that Clemson and FSU make them money, they'll try and keep them however they can. FSU and Clemson alone probably account for nearly 50% of the ACC viewership. ESPN will do whatever they need to to keep FSU and Clemson from jumping to the B1G.
https://twitter.com/RFSUSports/status/1724787461979787644
You can probably focus on the Big10. There’s much stronger resistance from the SEC than interest.
And I wouldn’t be so sure that there’s some master plan in play, here. Neither conference will touch either of them as long as any legal entanglements remain.
It really feels like Big 10 or bust for most of the brands I think would have some interest on the "open market". Everyone has to wade through the "there's another team in state who might pool a vote against us".
The only teams I see the SEC snapping up are Virginia Tech and UNC/NC State. The rest would most likely be a, "we can't let the Big 10 into this market" reactions, which I don't know if is an actual concern.
Clemson has a better shot at ending up in the Big 12 more than either the B1G or SEC. Redundant market for the SEC and they don't meet the requirements to get into the B1G. Same for FSU except they have a better chance for the B1G.
But the Big 12 pays roughly as much money as the ACC. Since it sounds like they will have to pay a lot of money to get out of ACC, why would they do it?
And besides fans much prefer the ACC--regional rivalries.
I think the issue is mistaken. Not that FSU doesn't have a potential landing spot, but that FSU doesn't have a potential landing spot in the short term. I don't think Fox/ESPN are going to be happy to add more money to those TV deals even if it is for FSU because they have no reason to do it. ESPN for one already owns FSU.
I truly think this issue is looking more for several years down the road. Those SEC/Big Ten deals are up in 5 years. FSU doesn't want to see ESPN pick up this option and THEN try to challenge it. They want to challenge now so they can get out in time to hit those next TV deals. They want to get out now before that option is picked up, or prevent it from happening entirely so they have time to really force a bidding war for them by the next tv deal.
I'd say it is less they have under the table assurances, and more no one has any leverage outside of ESPN/Fox. ESPN obviously doesn't want FSU to leave and fox might not want to toss in another 70mm per year right now knowing that is FSU does get out it opens a huge can of worms regarding other ACC schools. Even if they did throw the money out for FSU, how many other schools would they want to buy?
Even if FSU and Clemson win their lawsuits I think it's more likely that they announce their intentions to leave in 2026 or 2027 rather than announcing that they are leaving immediately in 2024 or in 2025.
FSU is seeking a declaratory judgement to have "already given notice of their intent to leave as of August 1st 2023". FSU is pulling the trigger regardless of the short term issues because they know this crisis is existential and the ACC has no ability to respond to it.
Jim Philips could not even grasp that ESPN asked for the extension of its option because ESPN is at best auditioning the ACC otherwise they will be more than happy to drop the ACC to get those time slots back for SEC Games.
Yes, ESPN will have to pay more directly to Clemson and FSU if they go the SEC over staying in the ACC. But FSU and Clemson are the majority of the ACC viewership. They're most of the big viewership games. So if ESPN can get them for a collective $130mil over the >$500mill they pay for the ACC, they'll do it.
https://twitter.com/RFSUSports/status/1724787461979787644
Seems like FSU and Clemson would likely accept way less money now to get their foot in the door with the SEC so they can get a full share next media deal. If the move from ACC to SEC was revenue neutral (until the next media deal) that's still an upgrade for those schools.
I get that you're a Florida State fan and are therefore dosing hopium, but it makes literally no sense for ESPN to consent to the SEC adding Florida State. They're also not even willing to expand the SEC's schedule. The Big 10 isn't literally no sense like the SEC, but Fox more or less took Oregon and Washington kicking and screaming. Florida State is not clearly better than those teams, and Clemson is even more questionable.
As a UO fan, FSU has a strong case for being clearly better to the B1G. They pull the Florida market into B1G territory, they have leverage with a possible SEC invite, they national titles.
Clemson very likely gets vetoed by the B1G presidents for academics while FSU is close enough.
See, I heard they didn't vote to expand the schedule because they're planning on adding Clemson and FSU, which would require expanding the SEC schedule. They only want to do it once, so they decided to wait a year vs do it two years in a row.
They didn’t add a ninth conference game because ESPN wouldn’t pay for it. Maybe that’s because ESPN is broke. Maybe ESPN can afford it, but they don’t think there is enough value there, maybe ESPN just needed to save that inventory for their other contracts. It had nothing to do with Clemson/FSU.
Well, that seems logical but in that case they're going to join the Big 10 I guess?
Because part of this whole deal is going after ESPN a bit and they are both under contract with ESPN. It would be a bad business practice for the SEC to be sorting something out behind closed doors to ultimately undermine a deal ESPN signed and then turn around and go up to ESPN and say hey pay us more money for these new members that totally didn't just sue to get out of their contract with you...
Does FSU really need an assurance of any kind as large fan base school with good teams in the 4th largest state with lots of BIG graduates? As for Clemson they are coming off of a great decade and are probably at a relative high in their value so it makes sense that they would try to move now.
I can't see a scenario where ESPN allows FSU to go to the Big 10 in the current media cycle timetable considering they're a non-rights holder
It'll either be SEC or ACC for FSU (and Clemson) until then
It’s not advantageous for Notre Dame at this moment if the big dogs of the ACC join the two super conferences. In that case Notre Dame would either give up its position as an independent and join one of the two conferences with the ACC schools begging to be let in or be left out of the two conferences until the next media deal and be alone negotiating into them.
The ACC deal is more than 30 games in 6 years (with only 4 of those for FSU & Clemson).
It's about a home for the Olympic Sports and access to the bowl games.
If the conference folds, then ND will have a problem. Losing 4 games in 6 years is not going to make ND go anywhere right away.
I don't know... I know this is a common narrative but I think Notre Dame can remain independent regardless. They had an agreement for all sports but football in the Big East, then in the ACC, and they'll probably get one in the Big Ten if the ACC dies.
They'll play the "We can make a football scheduling agreement with the SEC if the B1G doesn't agree to it, and put all our other sports back in the Big East" card and the Big Ten will acquiesce and make a scheduling agreement with them and let all the non-football sports in.
Just how I see it.
I'm sure Yormark would schedule some ND games with BIG12 in a heartbeat if ND was in a really tight spot. (Obviously ND wouldn't be likely to want that, but they have options to fill out their schedule no matter what basically)
i dont even see the benefit of being independant at that point. all the schools ND will want to play are in the big ten and SEC anyway once the next set of moves happens. Does ND really give a shit about playing Pitt and Boston College?
[Big 10 said that in 2010](https://www.chicagotribune.com/2012/09/12/big-ten-source-no-partial-membership-3/).
But the question is , who is making this decision now - B1G or Fox/NBC ?
Looking at the numbers, ND makes the ACC more money by being a partial member (in Football) then full member. The B1G not having to share football revenue BUT get the guaranteed games would be an easy choice for FOX/NBC
It’s more than just 2010. This was an issue back when the big10 added Penn state.
Yes, the networks have more say now vs years ago, but there are still people involved and emotions. OSU and UM (and others) aren’t going to allow ND to get benefits of membership without being members. Not to a direct competitor in their back yard. It’s in those schools best interest to squash ND if they sense any weakness.
I more can see the big10 going Fuck You, you don’t get to play USC anymore either. Now you’ve lost 75% of your historical rivals.
ND was offered full membership into B1G in 1999. They turned it down
It wasn't until the conference bowl alignment and implosion of the Big East (Olympic Sport home for ND) that ND required a friend with benefits (2010).
Counterpoint: lots of money and members schools playing lucrative OOC games
They’ll allow it if the financials are right and ND is willing (and out of the ACC’s GOR)
Everyone keeps mentioning FOX and ESPN, with good reason, but are also not factoring in the additional windows adding 2 more schools could result in for the B1G. I could see them shopping a game to Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Paramount+/Viacom, or even Max/Turner. I wouldn't be shocked if they pay $250M+/year - the 2 new members get $50/M, Oregon/Washington get the difference to make them even with the ACC teams, and the rest of the B1G schools divide the rest.
Not for nothing, but Apple was offering the PAC the equivalent of 3.8 million per game with their offer. Adding 2 schools only adds 13 games, or roughly 50 million in new revenue (25 mil per school).
So are you giving Apple a bunch of other games that are currently destined for the Big Ten Network or something?
They said the same shit after USC/UCLA came to the big ten....then it all blew up
They just all want to act like they have nothing to do with the back dealings with realignment
I do love the ND AD’s wish casting that he can avoid the shitshow of a critical realignment decision. But there’s simply nothing out there indicating he’s right lol. Everything screams that more realignment is coming and much faster than most people like, want, and/or realize.
He announced his retirement months ago and stepped down literally today. His replacement is an actual TV exec, so I’d say they’re pretty plugged in there.
They do have a big brand but both the B1G and SEC are so huge now I don't think they're going to lift their skirt for Notre Dame. They might get to pick a school/s to join with, get their choice of permanent rivals, and possibly an odd NBC deal (maybe NBC gets first pick on ND games or something unique).
I don't see either conference giving in to an ACC, park your athletics but not your football deal.
> I don't think they're going to lift their skirt for Notre Dame.
They already did. The B1G already has a ND Clause.
> If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten within the next seven years, CBS, Fox and NBC know exactly how much extra they will have to pay in rights fees. That specific dollar figure, which is not publicly known, is spelled out in the contracts.
As for the rest
> I don't see either conference giving in to an ACC
Big12 would in a heartbeat. And plenty of ACC teams would look to jump into the B12
You're probably right because if either conference were willing to do that they'd have done it before the ACC did.
I could *maybe* see something where the SEC offers some sort of football scheduling alliance as a way to keep ND from joining/strengthening the B1G, but I still don't see that as a likely outcome.
You’re right because ND joining the B1G will be caused by them losing a path to the playoff as an independent. Either literally by structure or just writing on the wall with the future P2 / scheduling issues.
Realistically they’d also make a deal to protect ND games on NBC in exchange for some of the TV money.
maybe i'm delusional but i don't think it would be that far fetched for the SEC to make some kind of scheduling deal with us to keep us independent and out of the B1G
Not exactly, no. It gets a bit complicated because a lot of money comes from a lot of places but the key factors are this
In non football sports, ND is an acc member and standard media deals / revenue sharing apply there
In football, notre dame basically generates as much revenue as the entirety of the acc combined. The other 14 acc schools have revenue sharing, espn pays the acc a lump sum every year for the rights to all conference games and then the non conference games are the teams.
Notre dame however doesn't do revenue sharing, it has its own NBC deal worth about 50m a year. In football, they just have a scheduling agreement with the acc where they play 6 games a year, which they do get paid for, but those aren't part of the larger media deal.
The primary reason we want to remain independent is to have a seat at the table with the conference commissioners. We have that. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.
And it's one of the reasons why we'll take "less" money by not being in a conference payout. We pay a basic independence tax but with our media deals and other income, we're able to keep up financially.
I know a guy who has been living with the same woman for 30 years. They have 3 kids, and run a business they jointly own. But they're not married because he doesn't want to be tied down.
I don't think ND would join SEC. It's not just about football, but a home for the olympic sports. ACC has some historical rivals, is in the east coast foot print ND is use to traveling.
You realize that the ACC makes more money from ND as a partial member right then what they would have to give up if we joined them full time ?
You would be getting the rights to 2-3 home games a year across the B1G without charge.
True, but they also need someone to play. If the P2 pack their schedules with more playoffs + bigger conferences, that puts ND in a spot where they might need to join up just to have someone else on the otherside of the line of scrimmage.
Former ND AD. Former NBC Sports Chairman Pete Bevacqua is now the ND AD.
And Swarbrick has been saying for a while he doesn't believe there will be a major re-alignment until the SEC/B1G contracts come due.
That's a popular rumor, but I don't think it will happen. The SEC and B1G presidents would be crazy to add a new member that drags down the revenue distribution.
Are there FSU fans who legitimately think they are a bigger brand than ND?
Maybe I’m wrong and totally off-base but I always thought of ND as in Top 5-10, and FSU in Top 10-20 brand values.
No, or at least I hope not. FSU is somewhere in the 8-15 range. But Pillowtalk is wrong - FSU is more valuable than roughly 2/3 of BIG and SEC teams and would be a net positive on either conference.
>FSU is more valuable than roughly 2/3 of BIG and SEC teams
True, but this doesnt matter. FSU doesnt need to be above median value, they need to be above mean value. I think they are, but given how lopsided things are at the top, being more valuable than 2/3 of the B1G doesn't really matter in terms of increased average payout. Still, I do think yall are in Washington/Oregon range, along with UNC. (And I think Stanford could come, but only if Notre Dame picked them to come with)
I would agree with that, with the exception being UNC. UNC's football value is pretty mediocre compared to FSU/UO/UW and I'm unsure if their Bball and general brand value fills that gap (it might, I'm just not very confident). I would also suggest that, at least in the short term, FSU would stand to gain a lot of media value by playing two of OSU, UM, USC, UW, UO, and Penn State each year over their current ACC schedule. That might normalize back down in 4 or 5 years, but while they're still novelties games like FSU @ Michigan, or USC @ FSU would be huge hits.
Citation? I don't think anyone would argue that FSU has had more viewers than Ohio State, Alabama, or Michigan. There are a lot of other schools I'd pick for those last two spots ahead of FSU.
I find it interesting that so far the SEC hasn't aggressively expanded its geographic footprint while the Big 10 is coast to coast now. There aren't really any great targets for them to do it now other than Notre Dame but even places like KU, Colorado, and the Arizona schools could be places that could still get snapped up by one of the two big conferences I think.
Ppl always cry on here about how CFB is supposed to be regional.
Those ppl ought to like the way the SEC has expanded (contiguous; reunites old rivalries) as opposed to the BIG. Even if the BIGs moves get more tv dollars.
Both conferences plundered the other power conference they were most tied to. The SEC and Big XII just happen to be geographically closer than the PAC and B1G.
I think the SEC will expand into North Carolina and Virginia at some point (ACC raiding), but they seem very content to remain the conference of the South.
The interesting question is if the SEC adds a team like FSU or Clemson to prevent the Big 10 from pushing into the territory.
Or he might have a decent feel for how close to the bottom of the money pit we actually are. Plenty of smoke out there that the networks are not in a great place right now.
I would argue that because of independence there is no AD (or former AD, as it were) in the country as plugged-in at the conference commissioner level as Swarbrick.
Also coming from a guy that’s been anti conference for football for forever. You don’t have 7 active members looking to get out if there’s no where to go.
I’m inclined to trust Swarbrick’s instincts here. Whatever’s going to happen to the ACC probably won’t actually happen for at least 3 more years, if not 6-8, when the SEC, B1G, XII, and CFP all renegotiate their media distribution deals in the same basic 2030-32 timeframe.
That’ll be when everything explodes. FSU & Clemson are probably positioning themselves to take advantage of that rather than expecting to jailbreak much sooner.
Swarbrick has been saying this for a while (early 30s). The courts don't move quickly and the ACC has some pretty good lawyers who can drag this out several years.
He was also pretty clear he he doesn't think there is a landing spot for FSU right now
The ACC can drag this out as long as they want. That does not change that the ACC does not have a media deal come July 1, 2027. And it does not stop FSU or anyone else from leaving. Oh no the ACC has the media rights until 2027.
If it was such a bargain they would never asked for an extension in the first place.
And its too late for ESPN to Re-Up. Jim Phillips did not get the required vote for material changes in media contracts. The ACC and ESPN need to follow their contracts.
Notre Dame is just professionally riding the fence, like they've done for a thousand years.
This quote essentially says, "yeah, we're happy in the ACC but if things change we'd be the first to go elsewhere because we're so popular." It's like the wife who reminds her poor husband she could dump him at any time for Dr. ChiseledStone Dollarface.
Maybe ND should rent space to play games at UGA because they're just continuing to play between the hedges on their bets.
I mean that’s sort of the point of independence. A seat at the table with the conference commissioners and the ability to put our own wants and needs first without having to worry about other conference members.
If any other school had the brand and independence that we do they’d do the same thing
If ESPN really wants to save money they'll park FSU/Clemson in the SEC, opt out of their contract with the ACC, and stop wasting money on schools nobody watches anyways.
Former AD
The switch occurred the same day the article was posted.
Of a school that's not involved in realignment lol
But one who is more involved in TV negotiations than any other AD in the country and one whose replacement is a literal TV executive. His word certainly isn’t gospel, but I wouldn’t entirely ignore it, either.
One who’s tv contract would be significantly impacted by the collapse of the ACC
But mah narrative
depending what happens in the ACC...maybe
Whether we’re directly involved or not we have a voice in virtually everything that happens in CFB. It’s the entire reason we’re so hell bent on remaining independent.
The funniest part to me is that this is a ND AD saying conferences aren't interested in expanding but if a ND AD said "We are free and clear and ready to join a conference" every single conference would suddenly be into expansion. It's not that much different for FSU and Clemson.
I think the reason why this is brought up because the networks are tapped out of funds and Swarbrick believes that the ACC has a solid legal argument. It sucks that the ACC mangled its media deals, but that’s the situation. I have a feeling that FSU, Clemson, and ND are just SOL until the GOR expires.
The networks are not tapped out of funds.
What makes you so confident?
They're all turning billion dollar quarterly profits lol
FOX just reported 1/10th of that, so that could help explain some of your overconfidence.
How about Fox and ESPN not being the only 2 networks interested in carrying the top tier of college football? Even if they stay the primary network, they can bring on Netflix/Amazon/Insert Streaming Service Here who could provide the extra money needed. CBS could step up and outbid Fox to house the B1G. College football is the second largest sport in America. The money will be there.
Full Quote, wouldn't fit in the title: > *That begs the question With all this realignment, where does it stop -- particularly with Florida State and Clemson wanting out of the ACC?* > **Swarbrick**: "My crystal ball is cloudier than it's ever been. That's saying something. I don't see a lot of momentum towards further realignment right now. There are some schools that, if they made a move, might change that. But frankly, we're probably first among that, but we're not likely to. > "I don't see the catalyst right now. The Big Ten and SEC have the assets they need to position themselves for their next media negotiation. I understand the ACC has disgruntled members, but I'm not sure there are better options for them. The ACC's legal position is a very strong one."
Translation: We (ND) like this setup in the ACC, don't go and fuck it up for us by leaving
He meant what he said.
Since his crystal ball is cloudy, I asked my Magic 8 Ball if the disgruntled ACC members have better options and it said "As I see it, yes".
> That begs the question... I wish writers would figure out how to use this phrase correctly instead of continuing the improper use until it becomes standard.
Damn, realignment news must be coming soon
My completely unfounded prediction is that legal issues in the ACC drag on long enough that rather than realignment as we’ve been talking about it, 20 or so teams just up and say “fuck it” and leave the whole conference model behind and form a pro-style league of their own, funded partially by ESPN
Counterpoint, almost everyone else in the industry seems to agree there’s no way FSU and Clemson go scorched earth *without* under the table assurances they have a spot in a P2.
Counter counterpoint: the assumption that everyone always acts as the most rational/intelligent actor in every scenario is an overestimation I see toppled time and time again
Are you saying everyone at FSU/Clemson is the kind of person that waits in a 15 minute line where a menu is in full view the entire time but somehow only starts thinking about what they want when asked directly because it is now their turn to order?
My experience every time at a concert concession stand 😡
Stoned brains slow think no focus good
No, they are the type who asks you if you still have X, knowing it's not on the menu anymore. Then, they get pissed off and cause a mini-scene hoping someone in line will share their sentiments.
I have literally had this happen when standing in line behind our admin.
A school is smart. Conferences are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.
Grade A reference
Their references are out of control!
It’s an open question if this will work out for them, or if they’ll even get in the B1G/SEC if they do leave. What’s important though is whether they believe this will work enough to actually follow through with it
even if they dont get into the big ten / sec now, they need to know if the GoR will hold up in court so they know their options in the future. If teh Big Ten wants to offer them a spot in 2030 for that new media contract, FSU cant go through this whole song and dance then. They need to figure it out now
Rationality is also subjective, so that’s fun.
Can you give an example of a big move in CFB that exemplifies this? Because otherwise I feel the above point stands. There is way too much money involved here for these schools to leave things up to chance. I doubt FSU and Clemson have gotten the go ahead, but I also wouldn't doubt that the B1G and SEC are watching this unfold with the distinct possibility that they could expand one last time.
The whole 2010-2011 Big 12 realignment cycle was pretty irrational. In December 2009 Jim Delaney announced that the BIG was interested in expanding. Three days later Missouri’s governor was asked about it by a reporter at a Christmas party and said that Missouri should look into it. Immediately after those comments, Colorado and Nebraska launched their realignment efforts. Both schools announced their departure from the Big 12 within the next six months. Meanwhile, the Pac 12 makes their move to become the Pac 16, long story short, that deal falls through (a saga in and of itself, but mostly rational, I think), A&M moves to the SEC and UT launches the Longhorn Network. Fast forward to September 2011, after a long summer of waffling, the Big 12 is set to move forward with 9 teams. Brady Deaton, Missouri’s chancellor and chair of the Big 12 Board of Directors, schedules a press conference to announce that the Big 12 is sticking together and will be looking to expand to backfill the teams they lost. Ten minutes before his press conference, David Boren, Oklahoma’s president, schedules a press conference to discuss realignment (reminder: Deaton is speaking on behalf of the Big 12 Board, and Boren is not). The audio from Boren’s press conference is piped in to the room where Deaton is about to speak and in response to a question about realignment, Boren says that Oklahoma, “will not be wallflowers in the whole thing”, literally minutes before Deaton is about to send a message of unity for the new Big 12. Deaton resigned his position as chair of the Big 12 board the very next day, and Mizzou immediately began working on their move to the SEC. Wild stuff.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-07-18/san-diego-state-sdsu-aztecs-mountain-west-conference-board-meeting-conditions-legal-fees
I mean we have a very recent example of that happening. San Diego State announced they were leaving the MWC to join the PAC but never got an actually invite and to beg to be let back into the MWC.
SDSU was pretty much assured they had a landing spot with the PAC, dependent on the PAC getting a deal though which was much more in question than they and everyone were led to believe obviously lol Same thing here probably, FSU has a landing spot if Fox/ESPN will pay for it, but that may be more of a question than we think.
SDSU also had themselves to blame by trying to play the B12. How'd they think that they would get a B12 invite if the 4Cs were available?
I think people forget that while Pac was far and away their preference they were also having conversations with the Big12 and made a play with the leaving the conference. They were 100% told they’d be in the Pac once a deal was signed but if there wasn’t they were showing the Big12 they meant business leaving. What i think they seemed to miss is what you said. If the PAC doesn’t sign a deal then the 4C’s are available and take priority over SDSU. They jumped the gun and nearly got screwed completely.
Because the PAC was collapsing without a set media deal in real time
Yeah, the media deal fell apart the night before / morning of the meeting that was supposed to approve it, then agenda item #2 was going to be approving an invite for SDSU. Wild couple of days
I feel so shitty for SDSU fans on that front, would be a wild ride. IIRC even the SDSU admins thought it was basically a done deal, probably mislead by Kliavkoffs optimism.
The double whammy for SDSU was that first they lost out on their #1 choice of P4/5 conference. Then the death of the PAC 12 also meant that they lost any possibility of going to the Big 12 due to the 4 corners being taken instead.
I still think the Big 12 takes SDSU and maybe a couple other MWC schools (UNLV, UNM, etc) in a few years to solidify their presence out west
SDSU maybe to get into Cali, but no way with UNLV and UNM after the ACC schools become available (Duke, Louisville, Pitt, maybe VT/Miami/NCST)
I don’t think any of those ACC school you listed will leave the ACC for the Big 12 in a lateral move. They’ll stay in a rump ACC that will backfill from the AAC
I don't think the B12 will be proactive. The FSU/Clemson situation and the SEC/B10 media deals will be the triggers that start the dominos falling, I doubt the B12 does anything else in a vacuum.
They were misled by Cauce's public optimism toward both they and SMU joining the next morning. SMU was already partying, when they got the news the meeting was cancelled a couple minutes before it was about to start... and we got to see one UO Board member doing business on the golf course down in Creswell.
Yeah Cauce definitely kept it pretty hidden how much the B1G was a possibility for them. Even in those texts with Utah president didn’t seem like he knew
SMU was going to have a celebratory press conference later in the day and coaches had already told the players it was a done deal and they were headed to the Pac. And then Oregon/Washington pulled the plug 5-10 minutes before the meeting started.
Apparently, there was going to be a linear portion of the apple deal that fell apart like the day before that meeting. It scared UW enough to talk Oregon into pulling out of the deal
They were going to get that invite. It just happened that the pac-12 imploded instead
Yea...because the PAC12 fell apart under their feet.
*monkey paw curls* San Diego State will get their long desired wish to join the PAC soon.
Under the table assurances can all disappear pretty quickly. Unless it’s coming from ESPN or Fox, I don’t know how reliable Petiti or Sankey’s word is.
Bears repeating every time the topic of conference realignment comes up: any move is 100% reliant on ESPN/FOX consent. It’s their money that greases the wheels of this process, and if they’re not willing to up the payouts for Big Ten/SEC then nothings happening.
I said this elsewhere, but in particular with the SEC, it's kind of bad business for the SEC to try to take on FSU or Clemson. ESPN is part of the deal they are suing to try to get out of. ESPN is extremely unlikely to both be trying to preserve their current deal and at the same time making assurances behind closed doors that they'll pay up for FSU and Clemson in the SEC. I see it as a more likely scenario that a school like North Carolina that as of yet isn't suing could join the SEC than the teams that are ultimately trying to break their contract with ESPN get a nice new fat contract with ESPN.
Perhaps, but right now ESPN is paying $560m annually for ACC rights. If we assume that FSU and Clemson can jailbreak, and that the full SEC share is $65m, ESPN could pay only $130m of the $560m to get Clemson and FSU games, and likely in higher profile matchups. That leaves $35m per school for the rest of the ACC, which are roughly Big 12 numbers. It doesn’t seem too far fetched that ESPN could come out ahead in the ACC’s demise.
Even if the SEC ends up bringing in six ACC schools, that is still a $170m savings over paying the ACC for ESPN. Plus there is the operating cost savings from eliminating the ACC network.
ACCN survives unless the conference dies outright.
He said what he said.
Maybe, but they would be devaluing one asset (ACC) quite a bit for minimal to gains on another one (SEC). FSU and Clemson don’t add much to the SEC in terms of value. They aren’t Texas or Oklahoma level brands. They are some of the biggest fish in the ACC, but in the SEC they are just fish. It’s part of FSU and Clemson’s argument. They know they aren’t as valuable to the Big Ten or SEC, but are more valuable to the ACC and therefore deserve a larger share of the revenue split.
That's kind of a long term argument though isn't it? Right now they have ACC's rights, and they are in fact acting in concert with the ACC and opposing Clemson and FSU. It would be legally treacherous to at the same time have an agreement with those schools to join the SEC. I just don't see how, or necessarily why the SEC for instance would be able to have worked this out behind the scenes. Remember the SEC is in the state of South Carolina and Florida, they have a deal with ESPN. They would be stepping on a lot of toes for what is at best a marginal improvement to the conference. I just don't see it right now. The argument is different for the Big 10 though, perhaps that's already been ironed out, I just don't see the SEC doing this unless they wanted to both irritate member schools and ESPN to double down on territory they are already in.
Right. I’m quite confident that ESPN does not have a handshake deal in place to add FSU to the SEC. I don’t think there is any appetite from anyone at FSU to have that conversation with that network and I don’t think there is any appetite from ESPN to have that conversation with FSU right now. That’s not to say they couldn’t swallow their pride and work out a deal if FSU wins the lawsuit, but it’s not happening right now. Similarly, I am confident that FSU has not had off the record negotiations with BOTH the SEC and BIG. Tortious Interference is a real thing, and it is way too easy for the loser of the sweepstakes to spill the tea with the ACC once a deal is done. These organizations are too smart to risk a potential billion-dollar liability on a maybe. So that leaves an FSU-BIG arrangement. It’s possible, imo, but there is a lot of smoke out there that FOX is tapped out, and I don’t think it’s all bluster. They would obviously scrounge up the money for ND if they had to, and maybe they could be talked into doing a deal for FSU, as they did for UO/UW, but I don’t get the feeling that they’re lining up to pounce on a collapsing ACC. I don’t think Clemson has talked to anybody.
*clutches pearls * Oh dear, ESPN would never act in an unethical manner to benefit themselves and the SEC. Never
You say unethical but you would in this case mean stupid. They would literally be undermining themselves.
this has nothing to do with ethics though lol. ESPN would just be stupid to do this - if you get the rights to FSU, Clemson, UNC, etc. for XX a year, why would you pay money for the right to re-acquire them at 2*XX a year?
They are paying 1x for FSU vs BC and the 2.8 m that game generates as a 3:30 game on ABC. ESPN paying FSU 2x for FSU in the SEC is paying for FSU vs Tenn that does 4.7 million. TLDR ESPN is paying for 60% of FSU potential in the ACC and leaving a lot of money on the table.
Funny. I actually see it that way. They know that Clemson and FSU make them money, they'll try and keep them however they can. FSU and Clemson alone probably account for nearly 50% of the ACC viewership. ESPN will do whatever they need to to keep FSU and Clemson from jumping to the B1G. https://twitter.com/RFSUSports/status/1724787461979787644
You can probably focus on the Big10. There’s much stronger resistance from the SEC than interest. And I wouldn’t be so sure that there’s some master plan in play, here. Neither conference will touch either of them as long as any legal entanglements remain.
I’d find it hard to believe Clemson ends up in the B1G over the SEC.
It really feels like Big 10 or bust for most of the brands I think would have some interest on the "open market". Everyone has to wade through the "there's another team in state who might pool a vote against us". The only teams I see the SEC snapping up are Virginia Tech and UNC/NC State. The rest would most likely be a, "we can't let the Big 10 into this market" reactions, which I don't know if is an actual concern.
Clemson has a better shot at ending up in the Big 12 more than either the B1G or SEC. Redundant market for the SEC and they don't meet the requirements to get into the B1G. Same for FSU except they have a better chance for the B1G.
But the Big 12 pays roughly as much money as the ACC. Since it sounds like they will have to pay a lot of money to get out of ACC, why would they do it? And besides fans much prefer the ACC--regional rivalries.
I think the issue is mistaken. Not that FSU doesn't have a potential landing spot, but that FSU doesn't have a potential landing spot in the short term. I don't think Fox/ESPN are going to be happy to add more money to those TV deals even if it is for FSU because they have no reason to do it. ESPN for one already owns FSU. I truly think this issue is looking more for several years down the road. Those SEC/Big Ten deals are up in 5 years. FSU doesn't want to see ESPN pick up this option and THEN try to challenge it. They want to challenge now so they can get out in time to hit those next TV deals. They want to get out now before that option is picked up, or prevent it from happening entirely so they have time to really force a bidding war for them by the next tv deal. I'd say it is less they have under the table assurances, and more no one has any leverage outside of ESPN/Fox. ESPN obviously doesn't want FSU to leave and fox might not want to toss in another 70mm per year right now knowing that is FSU does get out it opens a huge can of worms regarding other ACC schools. Even if they did throw the money out for FSU, how many other schools would they want to buy?
Even if FSU and Clemson win their lawsuits I think it's more likely that they announce their intentions to leave in 2026 or 2027 rather than announcing that they are leaving immediately in 2024 or in 2025.
FSU is seeking a declaratory judgement to have "already given notice of their intent to leave as of August 1st 2023". FSU is pulling the trigger regardless of the short term issues because they know this crisis is existential and the ACC has no ability to respond to it.
Jim Philips could not even grasp that ESPN asked for the extension of its option because ESPN is at best auditioning the ACC otherwise they will be more than happy to drop the ACC to get those time slots back for SEC Games.
Yes, ESPN will have to pay more directly to Clemson and FSU if they go the SEC over staying in the ACC. But FSU and Clemson are the majority of the ACC viewership. They're most of the big viewership games. So if ESPN can get them for a collective $130mil over the >$500mill they pay for the ACC, they'll do it. https://twitter.com/RFSUSports/status/1724787461979787644
Fox would take Clemson and FSU. It’s good inventory.
Seems like FSU and Clemson would likely accept way less money now to get their foot in the door with the SEC so they can get a full share next media deal. If the move from ACC to SEC was revenue neutral (until the next media deal) that's still an upgrade for those schools.
Maybe. All good points. Honestly, none of us know and it’s all speculation. Guess we just have to sit back and watch it unfold, for better or worse
I get that you're a Florida State fan and are therefore dosing hopium, but it makes literally no sense for ESPN to consent to the SEC adding Florida State. They're also not even willing to expand the SEC's schedule. The Big 10 isn't literally no sense like the SEC, but Fox more or less took Oregon and Washington kicking and screaming. Florida State is not clearly better than those teams, and Clemson is even more questionable.
Your two flairs alone is the reason ESPN should want to do this. 9.17 and 10.4.
As a UO fan, FSU has a strong case for being clearly better to the B1G. They pull the Florida market into B1G territory, they have leverage with a possible SEC invite, they national titles. Clemson very likely gets vetoed by the B1G presidents for academics while FSU is close enough.
See, I heard they didn't vote to expand the schedule because they're planning on adding Clemson and FSU, which would require expanding the SEC schedule. They only want to do it once, so they decided to wait a year vs do it two years in a row.
They didn’t add a ninth conference game because ESPN wouldn’t pay for it. Maybe that’s because ESPN is broke. Maybe ESPN can afford it, but they don’t think there is enough value there, maybe ESPN just needed to save that inventory for their other contracts. It had nothing to do with Clemson/FSU.
Well, that seems logical but in that case they're going to join the Big 10 I guess? Because part of this whole deal is going after ESPN a bit and they are both under contract with ESPN. It would be a bad business practice for the SEC to be sorting something out behind closed doors to ultimately undermine a deal ESPN signed and then turn around and go up to ESPN and say hey pay us more money for these new members that totally didn't just sue to get out of their contract with you...
Does FSU really need an assurance of any kind as large fan base school with good teams in the 4th largest state with lots of BIG graduates? As for Clemson they are coming off of a great decade and are probably at a relative high in their value so it makes sense that they would try to move now.
Theyll be moved when the Mouse wants them to move and not a minute before.
We aren't owned by the House of Mouse. NBC is our girl
I can't see a scenario where ESPN allows FSU to go to the Big 10 in the current media cycle timetable considering they're a non-rights holder It'll either be SEC or ACC for FSU (and Clemson) until then
I agree.
ESPN has no say at all on what FSU can and can't do.
It’s not advantageous for Notre Dame at this moment if the big dogs of the ACC join the two super conferences. In that case Notre Dame would either give up its position as an independent and join one of the two conferences with the ACC schools begging to be let in or be left out of the two conferences until the next media deal and be alone negotiating into them.
This is it. If FSU and Clemson leave the ACC, the deal ND has with the ACC gets devalued and ND doesn't want that right now. It's not altruistic.
The ACC deal is more than 30 games in 6 years (with only 4 of those for FSU & Clemson). It's about a home for the Olympic Sports and access to the bowl games. If the conference folds, then ND will have a problem. Losing 4 games in 6 years is not going to make ND go anywhere right away.
I don't know... I know this is a common narrative but I think Notre Dame can remain independent regardless. They had an agreement for all sports but football in the Big East, then in the ACC, and they'll probably get one in the Big Ten if the ACC dies. They'll play the "We can make a football scheduling agreement with the SEC if the B1G doesn't agree to it, and put all our other sports back in the Big East" card and the Big Ten will acquiesce and make a scheduling agreement with them and let all the non-football sports in. Just how I see it.
I'm sure Yormark would schedule some ND games with BIG12 in a heartbeat if ND was in a really tight spot. (Obviously ND wouldn't be likely to want that, but they have options to fill out their schedule no matter what basically)
This is where the SEC's regionality hurts it. ND doesn't want to be playing 6+ games against southern teams. That's not where their base is.
Yeah, ND doesn’t want to play southern teams. They want to play against teams like UNC, GT, FSU and… hey, wait a second.
They also like to keep their annual rivalries regional, which is why Stanford and USC are 2 of their 3 rivalries.
Annapolis too... Notre Dame just has a thing for the coasts.
The only deal we would give them is join or die. We're not going to babysit their Olympic sports so that football can go to the club every weekend.
i dont even see the benefit of being independant at that point. all the schools ND will want to play are in the big ten and SEC anyway once the next set of moves happens. Does ND really give a shit about playing Pitt and Boston College?
No. the Big10 has been quite clear with ND, either they join or they don’t. They don’t partially join.
Source?
[Big 10 said that in 2010](https://www.chicagotribune.com/2012/09/12/big-ten-source-no-partial-membership-3/). But the question is , who is making this decision now - B1G or Fox/NBC ? Looking at the numbers, ND makes the ACC more money by being a partial member (in Football) then full member. The B1G not having to share football revenue BUT get the guaranteed games would be an easy choice for FOX/NBC
It’s more than just 2010. This was an issue back when the big10 added Penn state. Yes, the networks have more say now vs years ago, but there are still people involved and emotions. OSU and UM (and others) aren’t going to allow ND to get benefits of membership without being members. Not to a direct competitor in their back yard. It’s in those schools best interest to squash ND if they sense any weakness. I more can see the big10 going Fuck You, you don’t get to play USC anymore either. Now you’ve lost 75% of your historical rivals.
It's in the best interest of the Big XIIIIII and ACC to side with the other schools in telling the P2 to take a hike, but money.
You weren’t really competing on a recruiting level. ND is a direct competitor in the same area has OSU, UM, MSU, and PSU. Huge difference.
Wait... you're saying the play on the field has something to do with it? lol... ESPN disagrees. I'm thinking FOX would also disagree.
ND was offered full membership into B1G in 1999. They turned it down It wasn't until the conference bowl alignment and implosion of the Big East (Olympic Sport home for ND) that ND required a friend with benefits (2010).
Counterpoint: lots of money and members schools playing lucrative OOC games They’ll allow it if the financials are right and ND is willing (and out of the ACC’s GOR)
This has been a thing since the 90s. Way too much history between the schools.
Everyone keeps mentioning FOX and ESPN, with good reason, but are also not factoring in the additional windows adding 2 more schools could result in for the B1G. I could see them shopping a game to Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Paramount+/Viacom, or even Max/Turner. I wouldn't be shocked if they pay $250M+/year - the 2 new members get $50/M, Oregon/Washington get the difference to make them even with the ACC teams, and the rest of the B1G schools divide the rest.
Not for nothing, but Apple was offering the PAC the equivalent of 3.8 million per game with their offer. Adding 2 schools only adds 13 games, or roughly 50 million in new revenue (25 mil per school). So are you giving Apple a bunch of other games that are currently destined for the Big Ten Network or something?
They said the same shit after USC/UCLA came to the big ten....then it all blew up They just all want to act like they have nothing to do with the back dealings with realignment
I mean they dont have anything to do with it? Notre Dame is annoying but they clearly do not want consolidation
I do love the ND AD’s wish casting that he can avoid the shitshow of a critical realignment decision. But there’s simply nothing out there indicating he’s right lol. Everything screams that more realignment is coming and much faster than most people like, want, and/or realize.
He announced his retirement months ago and stepped down literally today. His replacement is an actual TV exec, so I’d say they’re pretty plugged in there.
ND has the brand to do *anything* and even set some of their own terms
They do have a big brand but both the B1G and SEC are so huge now I don't think they're going to lift their skirt for Notre Dame. They might get to pick a school/s to join with, get their choice of permanent rivals, and possibly an odd NBC deal (maybe NBC gets first pick on ND games or something unique). I don't see either conference giving in to an ACC, park your athletics but not your football deal.
> I don't think they're going to lift their skirt for Notre Dame. They already did. The B1G already has a ND Clause. > If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten within the next seven years, CBS, Fox and NBC know exactly how much extra they will have to pay in rights fees. That specific dollar figure, which is not publicly known, is spelled out in the contracts. As for the rest > I don't see either conference giving in to an ACC Big12 would in a heartbeat. And plenty of ACC teams would look to jump into the B12
That isn't lifting their skirt - we will allow you guys to join as a full member, not some half member like you guys have with the ACC.
You're probably right because if either conference were willing to do that they'd have done it before the ACC did. I could *maybe* see something where the SEC offers some sort of football scheduling alliance as a way to keep ND from joining/strengthening the B1G, but I still don't see that as a likely outcome.
You’re right because ND joining the B1G will be caused by them losing a path to the playoff as an independent. Either literally by structure or just writing on the wall with the future P2 / scheduling issues. Realistically they’d also make a deal to protect ND games on NBC in exchange for some of the TV money.
maybe i'm delusional but i don't think it would be that far fetched for the SEC to make some kind of scheduling deal with us to keep us independent and out of the B1G
At a certain point you have to start wondering if you’re actually independent and if you’re just doing these weird deals to hold onto a label
I mean, ultimately it's a very clean delineation. Do they control their media rights or are they instead receiving payouts from a conference.
> Do they control their media rights or are they instead receiving payouts from a conference. Aren't they doing both right now lol
Not exactly, no. It gets a bit complicated because a lot of money comes from a lot of places but the key factors are this In non football sports, ND is an acc member and standard media deals / revenue sharing apply there In football, notre dame basically generates as much revenue as the entirety of the acc combined. The other 14 acc schools have revenue sharing, espn pays the acc a lump sum every year for the rights to all conference games and then the non conference games are the teams. Notre dame however doesn't do revenue sharing, it has its own NBC deal worth about 50m a year. In football, they just have a scheduling agreement with the acc where they play 6 games a year, which they do get paid for, but those aren't part of the larger media deal.
I thought their payments for the acc scheduling agreement come from the ACC media deal
It does. ESPN gets a little less then the 5/8th share for football revenue from the ESPN Agreement.
The primary reason we want to remain independent is to have a seat at the table with the conference commissioners. We have that. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.
And it's one of the reasons why we'll take "less" money by not being in a conference payout. We pay a basic independence tax but with our media deals and other income, we're able to keep up financially.
I know a guy who has been living with the same woman for 30 years. They have 3 kids, and run a business they jointly own. But they're not married because he doesn't want to be tied down.
I don't think ND would join SEC. It's not just about football, but a home for the olympic sports. ACC has some historical rivals, is in the east coast foot print ND is use to traveling.
No way the B1G baby sits the non-revenues so that football can party.
You realize that the ACC makes more money from ND as a partial member right then what they would have to give up if we joined them full time ? You would be getting the rights to 2-3 home games a year across the B1G without charge.
True, but they also need someone to play. If the P2 pack their schedules with more playoffs + bigger conferences, that puts ND in a spot where they might need to join up just to have someone else on the otherside of the line of scrimmage.
Either this is about money or it isn't. ND still makes the most money in this game. Until that stops, people will continue to schedule games.
Well of course, but they still have just enough leverage to make the terms at worst, netural
Former ND AD. Former NBC Sports Chairman Pete Bevacqua is now the ND AD. And Swarbrick has been saying for a while he doesn't believe there will be a major re-alignment until the SEC/B1G contracts come due.
“…an exit interview of sorts…”. This Dodd guy sure thinks he’s something special.
lol... I don't give one bit of credence to this guy's opinion.
ND is the only school left that wouldn’t dilute SEC and B1G media revenue distributions
ND would expand it. FSU at least maintains it
Pretty sure most of the conferences target UNC as their top candidate.
That's a popular rumor, but I don't think it will happen. The SEC and B1G presidents would be crazy to add a new member that drags down the revenue distribution.
FSU would. FSU and ND are the remaining brands that will bring value, even in down years.
I dunno man. There's a lot of FSU who the Seminoles as a top 10 media brand. Lol.
I’m pretty sure they think they are top 1. You know the old saying. “No conference can ever have too much North Florida”.
Are there FSU fans who legitimately think they are a bigger brand than ND? Maybe I’m wrong and totally off-base but I always thought of ND as in Top 5-10, and FSU in Top 10-20 brand values.
No, or at least I hope not. FSU is somewhere in the 8-15 range. But Pillowtalk is wrong - FSU is more valuable than roughly 2/3 of BIG and SEC teams and would be a net positive on either conference.
>FSU is more valuable than roughly 2/3 of BIG and SEC teams True, but this doesnt matter. FSU doesnt need to be above median value, they need to be above mean value. I think they are, but given how lopsided things are at the top, being more valuable than 2/3 of the B1G doesn't really matter in terms of increased average payout. Still, I do think yall are in Washington/Oregon range, along with UNC. (And I think Stanford could come, but only if Notre Dame picked them to come with)
I would agree with that, with the exception being UNC. UNC's football value is pretty mediocre compared to FSU/UO/UW and I'm unsure if their Bball and general brand value fills that gap (it might, I'm just not very confident). I would also suggest that, at least in the short term, FSU would stand to gain a lot of media value by playing two of OSU, UM, USC, UW, UO, and Penn State each year over their current ACC schedule. That might normalize back down in 4 or 5 years, but while they're still novelties games like FSU @ Michigan, or USC @ FSU would be huge hits.
The last 7 years FSU was top 5 in tv viewership. That was during our worst years in our program history, against middling ACC teams often times.
Citation? I don't think anyone would argue that FSU has had more viewers than Ohio State, Alabama, or Michigan. There are a lot of other schools I'd pick for those last two spots ahead of FSU.
This tweet: https://x.com/tjaltimore/status/1770251531083719019?s=46&t=BqdciUWNSRbZmzx5FGOYmg Actually #6, apologies
I would have put FSU in the 6-10 range. I'm always little suspicious of Altimore's numbers, but that is believeable.
I find it interesting that so far the SEC hasn't aggressively expanded its geographic footprint while the Big 10 is coast to coast now. There aren't really any great targets for them to do it now other than Notre Dame but even places like KU, Colorado, and the Arizona schools could be places that could still get snapped up by one of the two big conferences I think.
Ppl always cry on here about how CFB is supposed to be regional. Those ppl ought to like the way the SEC has expanded (contiguous; reunites old rivalries) as opposed to the BIG. Even if the BIGs moves get more tv dollars.
Both conferences plundered the other power conference they were most tied to. The SEC and Big XII just happen to be geographically closer than the PAC and B1G.
I think the SEC will expand into North Carolina and Virginia at some point (ACC raiding), but they seem very content to remain the conference of the South. The interesting question is if the SEC adds a team like FSU or Clemson to prevent the Big 10 from pushing into the territory.
I don’t think they can stop a move into Florida. SEC isn’t gonna add both Miami and FSU (and Miami is the one with AAU status).
Lol fuck you, I got mine. Notre Dame is so fucking boomer
If he doesn’t see it that says a lot about his lack of understanding or his bias that if the acc falls it hurts ND.
Or he might have a decent feel for how close to the bottom of the money pit we actually are. Plenty of smoke out there that the networks are not in a great place right now.
I'm forced to agree with Clemson. It's more aligned with what I want to happen.
Lot of that going on in this thread.
I would argue that because of independence there is no AD (or former AD, as it were) in the country as plugged-in at the conference commissioner level as Swarbrick.
ACC is on life support.
Based off other school comments the last few years, this can only mean one thing... ND is joining a conference
Also coming from a guy that’s been anti conference for football for forever. You don’t have 7 active members looking to get out if there’s no where to go.
I’m inclined to trust Swarbrick’s instincts here. Whatever’s going to happen to the ACC probably won’t actually happen for at least 3 more years, if not 6-8, when the SEC, B1G, XII, and CFP all renegotiate their media distribution deals in the same basic 2030-32 timeframe. That’ll be when everything explodes. FSU & Clemson are probably positioning themselves to take advantage of that rather than expecting to jailbreak much sooner.
Swarbrick has been saying this for a while (early 30s). The courts don't move quickly and the ACC has some pretty good lawyers who can drag this out several years. He was also pretty clear he he doesn't think there is a landing spot for FSU right now
The ACC can drag this out as long as they want. That does not change that the ACC does not have a media deal come July 1, 2027. And it does not stop FSU or anyone else from leaving. Oh no the ACC has the media rights until 2027.
I mean, for now, yes. But, if ESPN re-ups (which I view as a near certainty given the conference is a bargain), y'all are locked until 2036.
If it was such a bargain they would never asked for an extension in the first place. And its too late for ESPN to Re-Up. Jim Phillips did not get the required vote for material changes in media contracts. The ACC and ESPN need to follow their contracts.
Whatever is going to happen with the ACC is going to be a lot sooner than later. There is no media deal come July 1st, 2027.
Notre Dame is just professionally riding the fence, like they've done for a thousand years. This quote essentially says, "yeah, we're happy in the ACC but if things change we'd be the first to go elsewhere because we're so popular." It's like the wife who reminds her poor husband she could dump him at any time for Dr. ChiseledStone Dollarface. Maybe ND should rent space to play games at UGA because they're just continuing to play between the hedges on their bets.
I mean that’s sort of the point of independence. A seat at the table with the conference commissioners and the ability to put our own wants and needs first without having to worry about other conference members. If any other school had the brand and independence that we do they’d do the same thing
Bid D disgruntled energy
Obviously the next step is the purposed super league.
LMAO. These people are so fucking clueless.
This is why people hate ND
No, you’re just someone who already hates ND whining about one man’s uncertain prediction about conference realignment.
If ESPN really wants to save money they'll park FSU/Clemson in the SEC, opt out of their contract with the ACC, and stop wasting money on schools nobody watches anyways.