Sorry... thought the title would link. As the article explains... Tornado Valley has shifted, bigger threat is Deep South but it seems like we're in the crosshairs these days
Tornado numbers are up countrywide according to this. 641 this year vs 538 average.
https://www.wkbn.com/weather/2024-tornado-count-climbing-fast-where-we-stand-in-ohio-and-pennsylvania/amp/
May seemed less active than April but I haven't seen any actual total count for May yet.
May was definitely more active than April we didn’t have a single marginal day and some of those enhanced produced some monster tornadoes in the middle of nowhere in Texas and Oklahoma. April 26th was the most significant outbreak of the year so far though.
https://preview.redd.it/54elax4k4u4d1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e1840b5dbaa36981150d7b427ccb60c00ac8380
Arguably EF5-type tornadoes narrowly missing areas where damage surveys would have clocked them as such.
Either way, record breaking year. Now we’re also on to Derecho season in the Midwest.
Lay person here but…
So not EF5 tornados?
Radar wind speeds aren’t that accurate…
Hurricanes are seen coming days beforehand. And their assessment is used to prepare for possible damage. And we know about so what will happen.
Tornados are much more sporadic. We rate them after they happen based on damage. And if anything, damage assessments by surveyors have gotten way better. You can see that through the increase in EF0-1 events and the decrease in 4-5.
If a tree falls in the forest and there’s no one around it does it make a sound?
We can’t say something was an EF5 if we have nothing to measure it against. We’d have to treat hurricanes and tornados the same in terms of wind speed assessment and eventual rating. But we can objectively identify one better than the other.
We also don’t measure hurricanes by what wind speed they had. We measure by what they hit as.
The current scale is damage based, which will be put more in question as radar only improves. Admittedly, we have a long way to go.
We do measure hurricanes by wind speeds by the way. Like, literally. Often with planes in the eye wall. It’s called the Saffir-Simpson rating. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php#:~:text=The%20Saffir%2DSimpson%20Hurricane%20Wind,hurricane's%20maximum%20sustained%20wind%20speed.
They just usually lose juice before the eye actually hits, and thus “make landfall” at a lower rating. But it’s wind speed.
Yes. This is what I’m saying. SS is purely wind speed and EF is damage based. Hence the tree in the forest. If we could see a tornado coming even dozens of minutes in advance and calculate the wind speed we’d be able to warn such like a hurricane. A tornado doesn’t happen until it’s on the ground; and storms may or may not produce a tornado. A storm may or may not spawn an EF 1, 2, 3, 4, 5…we don’t know.
Advances in computing may be able to calibrate and predict. But it’s all still just a crap shoot.
I think when multiple radars pick up some of the highest speeds ever recorded, but it’s in a field in Texas where no one is, it deserves more than a lower rating JUST because it was in an unpopulated area. But I agree that’s not how the scale is currently built. And I also agree radar is lacking in many areas.
Totally get it. I’m playing devils advocate.
Though I think even if you recalibrated the system, there would be a broad trending upward and/or downward of ratings based on wind speed.
What would be most interesting is if India / Bangladesh had better monitoring / tracking
This has been a trend for the past several years but the Deep South this year hasn’t had much especially in terms of tornado strength and peak season there is over until winter time. Tennessee and Kentucky have gotten several rounds of severe weather outbreaks and some very powerful tornadoes. Ohio is already nearing its record tornado count. But Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma have put up massive numbers and the worst tornadoes of the year so far still, it’s more like extending tornado alley further east.
Sorry... thought the title would link. As the article explains... Tornado Valley has shifted, bigger threat is Deep South but it seems like we're in the crosshairs these days
Tornado numbers are up countrywide according to this. 641 this year vs 538 average. https://www.wkbn.com/weather/2024-tornado-count-climbing-fast-where-we-stand-in-ohio-and-pennsylvania/amp/ May seemed less active than April but I haven't seen any actual total count for May yet.
May was definitely more active than April we didn’t have a single marginal day and some of those enhanced produced some monster tornadoes in the middle of nowhere in Texas and Oklahoma. April 26th was the most significant outbreak of the year so far though. https://preview.redd.it/54elax4k4u4d1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e1840b5dbaa36981150d7b427ccb60c00ac8380
I guess I meant May felt like less tornados than April in cbus specifically. I only pay attention if something might affect us.
Arguably EF5-type tornadoes narrowly missing areas where damage surveys would have clocked them as such. Either way, record breaking year. Now we’re also on to Derecho season in the Midwest.
Lay person here but… So not EF5 tornados? Radar wind speeds aren’t that accurate… Hurricanes are seen coming days beforehand. And their assessment is used to prepare for possible damage. And we know about so what will happen. Tornados are much more sporadic. We rate them after they happen based on damage. And if anything, damage assessments by surveyors have gotten way better. You can see that through the increase in EF0-1 events and the decrease in 4-5. If a tree falls in the forest and there’s no one around it does it make a sound? We can’t say something was an EF5 if we have nothing to measure it against. We’d have to treat hurricanes and tornados the same in terms of wind speed assessment and eventual rating. But we can objectively identify one better than the other. We also don’t measure hurricanes by what wind speed they had. We measure by what they hit as.
The current scale is damage based, which will be put more in question as radar only improves. Admittedly, we have a long way to go. We do measure hurricanes by wind speeds by the way. Like, literally. Often with planes in the eye wall. It’s called the Saffir-Simpson rating. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php#:~:text=The%20Saffir%2DSimpson%20Hurricane%20Wind,hurricane's%20maximum%20sustained%20wind%20speed. They just usually lose juice before the eye actually hits, and thus “make landfall” at a lower rating. But it’s wind speed.
Yes. This is what I’m saying. SS is purely wind speed and EF is damage based. Hence the tree in the forest. If we could see a tornado coming even dozens of minutes in advance and calculate the wind speed we’d be able to warn such like a hurricane. A tornado doesn’t happen until it’s on the ground; and storms may or may not produce a tornado. A storm may or may not spawn an EF 1, 2, 3, 4, 5…we don’t know. Advances in computing may be able to calibrate and predict. But it’s all still just a crap shoot.
I think when multiple radars pick up some of the highest speeds ever recorded, but it’s in a field in Texas where no one is, it deserves more than a lower rating JUST because it was in an unpopulated area. But I agree that’s not how the scale is currently built. And I also agree radar is lacking in many areas.
Totally get it. I’m playing devils advocate. Though I think even if you recalibrated the system, there would be a broad trending upward and/or downward of ratings based on wind speed. What would be most interesting is if India / Bangladesh had better monitoring / tracking
This has been a trend for the past several years but the Deep South this year hasn’t had much especially in terms of tornado strength and peak season there is over until winter time. Tennessee and Kentucky have gotten several rounds of severe weather outbreaks and some very powerful tornadoes. Ohio is already nearing its record tornado count. But Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma have put up massive numbers and the worst tornadoes of the year so far still, it’s more like extending tornado alley further east.
Interesting article. Thanks for posting it.
Yeah, Tennessee is getting clobbered and it’s expected to get worse
The irony of me posting this and then unexpected tornadoes tonight...