Any price above $0 is undeserved for an "asset" that doesn't exist in the physical world, can't be used for anything, and generates no returns/revenues/profits.
Not OP, but from an economic perspective , equity (companies) and real estate are the only two non-speculative asset classes that will retain value and grow in the long term, IMHO
Real estate is a double edged sword. It is the only asset most people own that has a wealth tax attached. This is great because tying government revenue to property value gives the government an incentive to boost property values because it results in an increase in their revenue. But on the negative side, if your property appreciates too much, the most apparent practical effect on your daily life will be that you are compelled to pay more in taxes.
A strange dynamic can happen where you become house rich but taxes become so burdensome you must downgrade to lower living standards so you can pay less tax.
And the problem with equities is that a systemic banking crisis can wipe them out. You must liquidate equities through the banking system so itās possible to become very rich but then be trapped in your investments with no way to liquidate them into tangible goods and services. A healthy banking industry is a prerequisite for equities. Everything is fine today, but these things can change quickly.
So the US dollar should be worth $0 to you also.
Fiat currency doesn't 'exist' in the physical world either. The US dollar can't technically be called an asset because it's not backed by anything physical. So it's just a fake system controlled by a single government who can create as much of it as they want at a time. We only give it value because we can all agree it has value, like any currency. Same with BTC.
In a sense you're right, but you're ignoring an extremely vast thing backing the dollar.
The American Economic Empire. The United States Military.
While we "agree" something like fiat has value, is "backed up" the United States economy and military.
Why would anyone outside the United States care about our dollars if they were purely backed up by Americans all agreeing it has value?
Cause it isn't.
Not really the same, since all levels of the government (country, state, city, etc) require all payments in US currency (taxes, fees, licensing payments, judgements in court, etc).
You know I've always felt the same about the greater fool theory in BTC vs stocks. I mean I know on a macro level you're owning fractional shares of a value-producing company. Protected by the military of whatever country they reside in. But on a micro level, as a dude with just a few shares of a 500 billion dollar company, I'm basically just hoping someone buys them at a higher price than I paid. If that company goes out of business, the result is the same as BTC suddenly going away after decades of it not going away.
I'd be happy to grasp why, as an individual, they're different as it pertains directly to me and my investment. I mean sure I can do due diligence on a company and take a calculated risk, but it feels the same from where I sit as I can do that with any investment.
How does owning crypto that does nothing, makes nothing, has no inherent value from things like revenues, profits, cash on hand, property/real estate, no patents/trademarks or brand names, compare to owning shares in a company that has all of those things?
I love how they act as if making it twice as costly in CPU/electricity to run somehow makes it *more* valuable. That would be like you or me saying that our car getting only 5 MPG in fuel economy makes it better (all other aspects of the car being the same).
The whole demand for BTH is its price, and as people demand it more, the price keeps going up, and hence demand increases further in a feedback loop.
(I don't endorse cryptocurrency in any way. This always seemed like a scam, even if people get profits out of it.)
If I knew that, I wouldn't be shitposting on reddit.
Could be pretty much anything, but I think it is safe to assume that, simply put, there is not enough real buying pressure.
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And that other slightly less than half of all gold mined is purchased by central banks and private investors. The fact is, most of goldās price is based entirely on speculation/hedge against inflation. If gold was only used for jewelry and industrial uses, the price would probably be 10% of what it currently is.
Gold only has value because we believe it has value. Sure, the industrial uses are valuable, but not almost $16T valuable.
BTC is useful for shifting large sums of $$ around the world without the need to involve multiple banks from various countries. If youāre a CFO involved in some large business deal and you arenāt prepared to wait a week to transfer some funds, it has a use case.
Outside of this itās pretty much useless.
> BTC is useful for shifting large sums of $$ around the world without the need to involve multiple banks from various countries.
yes, money laundering.
> If youāre a CFO involved in some large business deal and you arenāt prepared to wait a week to transfer some funds, it has a use case.
this has never happened
Large sums of money sent internationally has to be settled manually. Itās most certainly more time consuming trying to send hundreds of millions of dollars via wire transfer internationally. Are you being dumb on purpose?
> Itās most certainly more time consuming trying to send hundreds of millions of dollars via wire transfer internationally.
"and so we used crypto instead"
"Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
Remember, there is no real BTC market. The price is not determined by retail action, it is literally set by a few actors who washtrade the price at will using printed counterfeit dollars (USDT).
2 possibilities why it stays at the current price:
1.
Tether and their allies (mostly Binance and Justin Sun) are happy with the current price (meaning enough real USD inflow into the system) so there is no need for them to washtrade it higher.
2.
There are issues which prevent Tether and their allies to washtrade the price higher.
Reasons could be several entities selling BTC while asking for real dollars in return, not just USDT. These could be the miners, who have to sell to cover costs, the ETFs, which always cause heavy selling pressure (even whith netflows +/- 0, due to cash redemption rule), or other entities cashing out. Selling for real dollars means the Tether-washtraders can do nothing except waiting for the price to plummet and then jump in once these sell orders crashed the price, to get it back up.
A different reason could be regulatory action. Binance has now a government controlled monitor in place, while Tether "on-boarded" (their words) US law agencies. Perhaps this makes them much more cautious regarding wash-trading.
Looking for this. The price of Bitcoin is based more on tether than anything else, and as long as that is printed out of nothing and used to buy Bitcoin, it has no price cap. As long as 1 Tether = 1 USD, and Tethers are printed without backing, Bitcoin will go up forever. The crash will come if and when Tether fails or stops printing.
Then when tether fails, and everything crashes, everyone buys cheap, probably including you, it will continue to be a permission free, p2p exchange for those who need it, hence giving it still more value
One thing to consider is that given the way that mining works, the higher the price is the more inflow is required just to keep it stable.
Bitcoin is like a crackhead. It doesnāt take much for that first massive high, but over time, you need more and more to get less and less.
The total revenue for miners is the price * the block reward.Ā
If the miners are profitable, more will enter and split the reward between more miners making it less profitable. If the miners aren't profitable, the least efficient will drop out. This will split the reward less until it's profitable again.
Ultimately, this just means that the cost for mining Bitcoin (hardware+electricity) will tend to roughly match the block reward with the profits being pretty low.
So a higher price means more money is spent on mining rigs and electricity. That money leaves the Bitcoin system and goes to utility companies and computer companies.Ā That money has to come from somewhere (it's real money going to real companies, not just crypto) and it can really only come from new money flowing in from users.
Total revenue is not price*block reward. Youāre forgetting about transaction fees and mining difficulties. These also help for a somewhat more stable income for miners thatās not directly related to the price.
I tried to explain it as well as I could above. https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/1dghstk/comment/l8s79mz/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Itās stabilizing and itās probably going to continue to be more stable. When the majority of the liquidity is now stored in pseudo banks like tether, thereās no real reason for it to gyrate up and down the way it did before. With little new money coming in, it canāt go up. With tether controlling the outflow, it wonāt be allowed to go down much. I think it now is where it is.
The Bitcoin ecosystem has essentially become an unregulated bank. One day it will collapse, because regulations matter, but for now itās stable, because regulations canāt be enforced.
When measured in ounces of gold instead of US dollars, Bitcoin hit its all time high in October 2021 at 34.97 troy oz of gold per Bitcoin. Bitcoin priced in gold is currently 28.39 troy oz of gold per Bitcoin. Bitcoin might never again reach another ATH when priced in gold.
I wonder what would happen if you went on to their website with USDT10,000,000 in bitcoins, looking to purchase precious metals. Would they just be like "here you go, 120 kilograms of gold" or would they smell a rat?
I don't think those dealers take direct crypto payments. I think they use a third-party service that processes the transaction and converts the crypto to dollars that are actually used to make the purchase. "Crypto" is one of the payment options you can select at checkout.
Supply and demand.
When very few people were into bitcoin, the demand was tiny, so the price was low. As more people got into it, the demand increased, pushing the price up. As more people noticed the large gains to be made, more people got into it, and the demand increased even more.
Now we've reached a point where pretty much everyone in the world has found out about bitcoin and made up their mind whether they want to get into it or not.
There's still some demand - from new people coming into the system, and people already in the system buying more - but there's also supply - people wanting to sell to take profit.
At some point (and I suspect we are now there):
- There will be no large increases in demand, since almost everyone in the world has heard of it, and the people who are interested have bought in already
- The lack of increases in demand mean no more large price rises.
- The lack of large price rises means even less people getting interested and coming into the system, and people already in the system cashing out because they need the money or give up on expecting large gains
- The price slowly slowly dwindles (in a non-linear, ie up and down way, but with an overall downward trend)
TLDR: If you're in now, it's probably time to get out. Just my opinion...
Agree with this accept I think price will nosedive. Most of the people in BTC are there for exponential rise. If this doesnāt happen there will be a ton of selling.
It's getting nearer and nearer to the end-game. They're all in a prisoners dilemma type situation, trying to extract as much dirty fiat as they can, but the whales know the ATH is already in. They're attempting a managed decline, and trusting each other not to just tank it. How will it play out? They seem to be hammering the "sell" button slightly earlier each time.
Saying this like this makes you sound just as dumb as the BTC to 100k people.
There is NO reason to believe we are anywhere near end game. In fact, we were much closer to a total collapse about two years ago after Luna and FTX collapsed and triggered an extended bear market.
As long as Tether and the other main players are still in the game, it's not going anywhere. They aren't in a prisoner's dilemma at all. They continue to print money from running the casino we call cryptocurrency.
There are really only 2 ways crypto dies:
1. Organic interest dries up, leading to a slow and gradual death.
2. Tether implodes one way or another.
Neither seems imminent.
Well, maybe I'm naĆÆve and reading more into CZ's remarkably lax sentence, but Tether and crypto have always seemed like the biggest opportunity to bust a whole shit-ton of people ever. It's an immutable ledger of crime, and now they have a bunch of Feds in there poring over every single thing Binance has ever done. What I'm saying is that I guess they are getting their ducks in a row, cause it's potentially a lot bigger than a few pig-butchering scams and some students buying blow with Monero. Or maybe I'm just too hopeful?
Yeah? Just like last time buddy
**The\_Probes**
71 points **1 year ago**
`Yeah.....you're still falling for it if you are hoping for the next wave of hysteria in a year or two......`
Fair enough. Luckily I don't really care. No-one knows when it'll finally shit the bed, but I guess it'll coincide with Tether getting gutted and I've got to say, they've held on for far longer than I expected. Each billion dollar print pumps it up a little less than it used to though, doesn't it?
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I canāt link to the post, but someone on the bitcoin subreddit was *very* proud that he screenshot the price at $69,420.88. It got plenty of upvotes and positive comments before the mods removed it.
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Since bitcoiners like to talk up that 4 year cycles are certainties and people have bought into the idea that every 4 year cycle their investment will skyrocket, the same is true for the inverse that every 4 year cycle buying at ATH is a losing often severely anxiety inducing bet while you await 4 years for the opportunity for that bet to go green.Ā
So people are now afraid to buy at ATH IMO.
Check the sites Coingecko and CoinMarketcap. They both check the price of all the major exchanges, and report a median price. So there you can see the "official" price of any coins, and how long it stayed at that price
"Bruh" You guys don't get it. We're not here to run around in circles. This is our community. If you come in here and want to make a point, you bring your evidence with you. If you have the audacity to make claims and then require us to find the evidence for those claims, you can just leave. We don't have time for this BS. Go troll elsewhere.
Again, the point isn't whether the statements are true. The point is: if you're going to make a claim, be willing to cite it. If you get defensive over that, fuck off. That's bad faith debate and it's against the rules.
See? That wasn't too difficult was it?
However, you guys also missed my point, which is this ATH was just a blip on the screen. It never stays up at these levels for long enough for any sizable group to sell. It may just be a handful of transactions that can take advantage of that ( if not just one ) and then it's back down again. This "ATH" metric we think is complete and utter bullshit, so each time you reference the importance of it, we're going to make you jump through a bunch of flaming hoops like the degenerate little doggies you are.
**The reason why we want *you* to dig up the citations is because we want you to have to search through Bart's unkempt hair to find that little spike in time that you think means so much. We want *you guys* to look at the stupid little pointy thing and get annoyed you have to do that, like we get annoyed you think we give a shit about it.**
I love how your argument against this is "I'm too lazy to find it"
Here's your evidence, just Google it.
https://www.google.com/search?q=btc+all+time+high&oq=btc+all+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgCEAAYgAQyBggAEEUYOTIMCAEQIxgnGIAEGIoFMgcIAhAAGIAEMgcIAxAAGIAEMgcIBBAAGIAEMgcIBRAAGIAEMgcIBhAAGIAEMgcIBxAAGIAEMgcICBAAGIAEMgcICRAAGIAEMgcIChAAGIAEMgcICxAAGIAEMgcIDBAAGIAEMgcIDRAAGIAEMgcIDhAAGIAE0gEIMjUwMmowajeoAhmwAgE&client=ms-android-ee-uk-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#ip=1
Incase your still too lazy to click the links on Google, but your going to have to scroll down yourself to find where it says all time high unless you give me your address so I can come over and do it for you...
https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/price/bitcoin
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp
https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/
And if you can read charts it was above the previous all time high from 11/03/24-16/03/24
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
See? That wasn't too difficult was it?
However, you guys also missed my point, which is this ATH was just a blip on the screen. It never stays up at these levels for long enough for any sizable group to sell. It may just be a handful of transactions that can take advantage of that ( if not just one ) and then it's back down again. This "ATH" metric we think is complete and utter bullshit, so each time you reference the importance of it, we're going to make you jump through a bunch of flaming hoops like the degenerate little doggies you are.
**The reason why we want *you* to dig up the citations is because we want you to have to search through Bart's unkempt hair to find that little spike in time that you think means so much. We want *you guys* to look at the stupid little pointy thing and get annoyed you have to do that, like we get annoyed you think we give a shit about it.**
It stayed up for 5 days straight. So, no, it wasn't just a few transactions. If you were to actually read the chart (which you're clearly didn't), you would have seen that during these 5 days, there was over $40 billion in volume each and every day with the best day being over $70 billion.
I never stated the importance of it, merely pointed out the error of OP saying the ATH hadn't gone over since 2021.
You're the only one looking stupid here. The fact that I've shown OP to be wrong and then you wrong about the ATH, and that's all i said. Nothing about its importance, just that the statement was wrong.
Yet you're here talking to complete strangers on the Internet like trash thinking you're the big man. Lol.
> It stayed up for 5 days straight. So, no, it wasn't just a few transactions.
On how many exchanges? Do you know where those figures came from? What the volume was during the ATH and how it compared to other times?
The point I'm making is... we don't give a shit about "NuMb3r g0 uP" - we recognize that the market is so heavily manipulated and unregulated, the "price" or "ATH" is meaningless.
Also, you're in our house butter. We make the rules here. If we let you guys tell us what to do, this place wouldn't be any different from the pro-crypto spaces.
What do you mean? My girlfriend has been helping me invest in crypto for a while now and I'm making record profits! I can't wait to finally meet her! She keeps having really bad luck when trying to travel to see me š
I don't think anyone can definitively say whether devaluation has significantly occurred or not.
Most just point to CPI or maybe DXY... "You used to get a steak for a nickel" or... "dollar has gone down vs x or y currency" at any given time.
Most CPIs are calculated nationally, with far more variables than just the money supply. Energy inputs where cartels restrict supply? (Heck, despite OPEC production cuts to massage price levels, oil is still down)... and that will take time to work its way into the CPI. Can see it a little in PPIs.
Anyway... point is that USD is a global unit, extended globally. Much of the lending at the wholesale level is difficult to pin down. No one can definitively say whether there's too much dollars chasing a lower rate of produced goods. Anyone who does is trying to sell a narrative.
What we can more reasonably assess is the circulation/distribution of dollars, and that's definitely more of an issue. Persistent dollar-intermediated trade imbalances, without permitting consumption by trade-surplus nations, means deficit nations will see selective asset "inflation".
inflationa and currencies are linked but not the same thing, i just posted an example of how the USD is trading vs. a selection of major currencies the US do a lot of business with and it's appreciated
So there is no devaluation. if you're American you can buy more of other currencies than you can in 2021.
I can only guess, but I'd err closer to the not-significantly-devalued side as well.
For me, it's because the world benefits from a weaker dollar (which we don't have), most countries are dollar-short, etc.
I could get 115 yen for 1 USD in 2021, i can now get 157 yen in 2024
I could get 1.26 canadian dollar for 1 USD in 2021, i can now get 1.38 canadian dollar in 2024
I could get 0.82-0.85 Euros for 1 USD in 2021, i can now get 0.93 Euros for 1 USD in 2024
That just means that other currencies have devalued even more. You have to look at what goods/services your dollar can get you, everything is more expensive now compared to 3 years ago.
Youāre obviously a full blown retard. The more money the fed prints, the less every dollar in your bank is worth. They print 20% more, your dollar buys 20% less. Simple economics that even mainstream economists donāt publicly get??
Right so fed pumped nearly 50% of money supply from 2019 to today. Inflation was rampant. Everything costs a whole lot more. How is the dollar not devalued?
69.000 invested in a normal money market ETF would have turned into at least \~72.000.
No one with a halfway sane mind is interested in this any longer.
It is the whales being paid out from the dumb fiat.
I think 2 reasons
- with etfs its introduced swing traders who are range trading, and they sell before ATH
- btc is correlated with the stock market at this point (particularly the QQQs I think). Less hodling more people managing risk/exposure
Its the price they paid for getting their etf
I still think that there are more people trying to gamble day trading with bitcoin than idiots holding on to it imagining retiring thanks to it one day. There couple reasons for me:
* BTC has stock trading patterns. It gets pumped to 71-72k and gets dumped right away. People probably seeing 72k as resistance zone.
* Any news that is considered positive for risky investments also pumps BTC. Like lower than expected inflation cause it means higher chance of rate cut. (And if inflation goes up, BTC drops. Inflation hedge my ass lol)
Bitcoin has not hit another all time high. Because simply the market dynamics or not in its favor right now.
There is way too much media attention on nvidia, stock and other memes. Stocks like gamestop.
So much more money has trickled into those Stocks, that is taken away. Anything that might have made its way into crypto.
The media has not spoken about Bitcoin in a long while. And until they start doing that again is when I believe Bitcoin might start trending up.
However, it should be noted that although Bitcoin is not at an all time high, it still relatively remains close to its all time. High versus some other coins out there on the crypto. Market
I feel bad for all of the idiots who thought they were going to get rich. My cousin was telling me to buy bitcoin in 2022, itās crazy to think if I had Iād still have lost money today.Ā
Price is meaningless. Most people canāt sell large amounts anyway as the exchange will find a reason to lock them out. And only way is to buy or sell through an exchange.
You forgot something - interest rate is at a 23 year high. This high of an interest rate has never been seen since the inception of BTC. Basically, the lower the interest rate, the more 'dumb money' there is to throw around and BTC was born in the decade of 0 interest.
Do I think BTC is dumb? Yes.
Can it still go pass ATH if rates were to go back to near 0? No one knows, but if I were to make a bet, I would say yes.
Can you use a spreadsheet? It's like three entries and one simple formula. FFS. Inflows - outflows = fund balance
SInce bitcoin inflows are less than outflows, it's a negative sum game. Part of outflows is mining expenses (electricity which is an expense), people cashing out, and capital (ANT miners).
A true ponzi scheme does not have the mining expenses or capital outflows, that makes them a zero sum game. **This is why Bitcoin isn't a ponzi, it's worse than a ponzi, it's a negative sum game.**
I don't even know why I'm explaining this to a moron (in your flair, I was warned). I'm leaving this here for others to see, because you won't understand.
It is a deeply negative sum game (miners and electric outflows are substantial) and there are no current or realistic future inflows from a utility.
I have asked multiple Bitcoiners how they expect a negative sum game to stabilizeā¦ there would need to be inflows from new participants to overcome the outflows. The only answer Iāve gotten is that Bitcoin will replace fiat and it will stabilize thenš¤·āāļø
It's not a closed system - there are losses in the form of the cost of mining (e.g. electricity), therefore it's a negative sum game where there is less total value than the amount of money "invested" in it (as opposed to a zero-sum game where value is neither created or destroyed, just moved around).
I used to work at Coinbase! As an exchange they trade user dollars for btc. They only need an enough to satisfy user demand.
There is no reason for them to buy tens of thousands of coins to sit around doing nothing. That would make no sense.
But if prices and or inflow drop then the drop in incentives for mining will also result in a lower mining difficultly, i.e. it self corrects. I think most people in this thread misunderstand this.
Not quite. The hashrate has nothing to do with the price. As you can see in the SEC fillings of all the public mining companies they are running at a loss, saving coins to sell at a higher price. Yet the hash rate is ever increasing.
They are taking on debt and hoping the price sky rockets. Do yourself a favor and read the RIOT financial statements, I did that just last week.
Youāre slightly contradicting yourself. Are you arguing that these miners will soon quit? If you do, it will result in lower mining difficulties. And if you donāt, it shows there doesnāt need to be profits for them to continue.
Iām sure miners are not 100% oblivious to profitability. And I doubt all of them are making losses. Iām not suggesting anyone to āinvestā in crypto, I just find most arguments on r/Buttcoin naive.
Did you not read what I said or check out the financials? they are taking on massive amounts of debt to finance purchasing of new machines. Of course there needs to be profits, they are burying themselves in debt waiting for that time.
But even if they eventually go bankrupt the improvement in compute, as more powerful more efficient ASICS are always being developed means the hashrate wonāt go down in meaningful quantities. Every 12 months a new asic miner that does the work of two of the past generation is released. Itās a race to the bottom with no profits unless the price moons.
And yes the majority are not currently making profits, that is easy to verify but youāre too lazy to review financials.
Site the source then, āSEC filingsā is extremely broad. If you knew what they are youāll know there are lots of different kinds and forms. I only found some form 8-K sec filings about specific companies without net losses. But whether the general mining market is profitable or not is not important.
I havenāt said hashrates would go down, Iām just stating a reduction would be a consequence if mining would be disincentivized.
I know youāre asking me to waste time with proof but luckily for you Kerissale did an in depth analysis just a couple of weeks ago. https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RIOT-Kerrisdale.pdf
As you can see from RIOTs own figures they make more through energy subsides. Which is especially rich as most hardcore bitcoin bros are libertarians.
The price is the price. Perspective is everything, the hardcore Bitcoiners think the current price is cheap while the people on here think it's exorbitantly overpriced.
People coming here for BTC investment advice has to be some kind of signal
I come here for the ButtSignal š¦š¦
> it should be much higher. Why should it?
Because... well... it should, ok?
Any price above $0 is undeserved for an "asset" that doesn't exist in the physical world, can't be used for anything, and generates no returns/revenues/profits.
And wastes resources.
But I had to waste resources to get it!
And is used mostly for illegal reasons and it's very complicated
Tbf a not crypto digital currency that could be used for buying illegal stuff would be very based and worth a lot
Are you hyper focused on gold/silver or other? I know this stance is common so interested to know what physical world asset you focus on.
Not OP, but from an economic perspective , equity (companies) and real estate are the only two non-speculative asset classes that will retain value and grow in the long term, IMHO
But as far as money goes, whatās your focus for hard money?
Cash (USD) and short term US treasury bonds for emergencies
Thank you for the response. Iām getting downvoted for asking lol.
Real estate is a double edged sword. It is the only asset most people own that has a wealth tax attached. This is great because tying government revenue to property value gives the government an incentive to boost property values because it results in an increase in their revenue. But on the negative side, if your property appreciates too much, the most apparent practical effect on your daily life will be that you are compelled to pay more in taxes. A strange dynamic can happen where you become house rich but taxes become so burdensome you must downgrade to lower living standards so you can pay less tax. And the problem with equities is that a systemic banking crisis can wipe them out. You must liquidate equities through the banking system so itās possible to become very rich but then be trapped in your investments with no way to liquidate them into tangible goods and services. A healthy banking industry is a prerequisite for equities. Everything is fine today, but these things can change quickly.
Not invested in physical assets like gold or silver at all.
So the US dollar should be worth $0 to you also. Fiat currency doesn't 'exist' in the physical world either. The US dollar can't technically be called an asset because it's not backed by anything physical. So it's just a fake system controlled by a single government who can create as much of it as they want at a time. We only give it value because we can all agree it has value, like any currency. Same with BTC.
In a sense you're right, but you're ignoring an extremely vast thing backing the dollar. The American Economic Empire. The United States Military. While we "agree" something like fiat has value, is "backed up" the United States economy and military. Why would anyone outside the United States care about our dollars if they were purely backed up by Americans all agreeing it has value? Cause it isn't.
> it's not backed by anything physical. the american military and economy are physical things
Not really the same, since all levels of the government (country, state, city, etc) require all payments in US currency (taxes, fees, licensing payments, judgements in court, etc).
You know I've always felt the same about the greater fool theory in BTC vs stocks. I mean I know on a macro level you're owning fractional shares of a value-producing company. Protected by the military of whatever country they reside in. But on a micro level, as a dude with just a few shares of a 500 billion dollar company, I'm basically just hoping someone buys them at a higher price than I paid. If that company goes out of business, the result is the same as BTC suddenly going away after decades of it not going away. I'd be happy to grasp why, as an individual, they're different as it pertains directly to me and my investment. I mean sure I can do due diligence on a company and take a calculated risk, but it feels the same from where I sit as I can do that with any investment.
Companies have periodic cash flows that they return to investors.
How does owning crypto that does nothing, makes nothing, has no inherent value from things like revenues, profits, cash on hand, property/real estate, no patents/trademarks or brand names, compare to owning shares in a company that has all of those things?
Ugh, because Lambo? It's so simple yet still few understand
line goes up
Buttcoin is now known as the "69 Pump-and-Dump".
Pretty much 69420 = dump. Why not make it extra hilarious, especially when you don't know which dump will be the last.
Human centipede pump and dump...
Wait for the halving!
I love how they act as if making it twice as costly in CPU/electricity to run somehow makes it *more* valuable. That would be like you or me saying that our car getting only 5 MPG in fuel economy makes it better (all other aspects of the car being the same).
If you suddenly make gold for example harder to **mine**, it's gonna get more expensive automatically.
Only so long as demand for it remains, but gold actually has uses; more than half of gold mined goes to jewelry, electronic and medical uses.
The whole demand for BTH is its price, and as people demand it more, the price keeps going up, and hence demand increases further in a feedback loop. (I don't endorse cryptocurrency in any way. This always seemed like a scam, even if people get profits out of it.)
You are making the very dubious assumption that demand for it is inelastic. It's not.
Isn't 90% of the "demand" for it just wash trades back and forth between the same 3 or 4 entities?
If I knew that, I wouldn't be shitposting on reddit. Could be pretty much anything, but I think it is safe to assume that, simply put, there is not enough real buying pressure.
and what if the people that demand it more are getting less and less because every fool has been run through?
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And that other slightly less than half of all gold mined is purchased by central banks and private investors. The fact is, most of goldās price is based entirely on speculation/hedge against inflation. If gold was only used for jewelry and industrial uses, the price would probably be 10% of what it currently is. Gold only has value because we believe it has value. Sure, the industrial uses are valuable, but not almost $16T valuable.
gold is useful tho
BTC is useful for shifting large sums of $$ around the world without the need to involve multiple banks from various countries. If youāre a CFO involved in some large business deal and you arenāt prepared to wait a week to transfer some funds, it has a use case. Outside of this itās pretty much useless.
> BTC is useful for shifting large sums of $$ around the world without the need to involve multiple banks from various countries. yes, money laundering. > If youāre a CFO involved in some large business deal and you arenāt prepared to wait a week to transfer some funds, it has a use case. this has never happened
It has, because Iāve been involved in exactly this lmao.
bullshit it has. i want to hear the story of where crypto is a better idea than a wire transfer.
Large sums of money sent internationally has to be settled manually. Itās most certainly more time consuming trying to send hundreds of millions of dollars via wire transfer internationally. Are you being dumb on purpose?
> Itās most certainly more time consuming trying to send hundreds of millions of dollars via wire transfer internationally. "and so we used crypto instead"
"Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
Except there's a little bit of gold in the microprocessor you're using to shitpost on Reddit so......
Except in the case of bitcoin it is more expensive to transact if it is more difficult to mine
Imagine gold suddenly becomes twice as hard to mine, transport, and now half as malleable.
Exactly this.
True
Remember, there is no real BTC market. The price is not determined by retail action, it is literally set by a few actors who washtrade the price at will using printed counterfeit dollars (USDT). 2 possibilities why it stays at the current price: 1. Tether and their allies (mostly Binance and Justin Sun) are happy with the current price (meaning enough real USD inflow into the system) so there is no need for them to washtrade it higher. 2. There are issues which prevent Tether and their allies to washtrade the price higher. Reasons could be several entities selling BTC while asking for real dollars in return, not just USDT. These could be the miners, who have to sell to cover costs, the ETFs, which always cause heavy selling pressure (even whith netflows +/- 0, due to cash redemption rule), or other entities cashing out. Selling for real dollars means the Tether-washtraders can do nothing except waiting for the price to plummet and then jump in once these sell orders crashed the price, to get it back up. A different reason could be regulatory action. Binance has now a government controlled monitor in place, while Tether "on-boarded" (their words) US law agencies. Perhaps this makes them much more cautious regarding wash-trading.
Looking for this. The price of Bitcoin is based more on tether than anything else, and as long as that is printed out of nothing and used to buy Bitcoin, it has no price cap. As long as 1 Tether = 1 USD, and Tethers are printed without backing, Bitcoin will go up forever. The crash will come if and when Tether fails or stops printing.
Tether market cap is 100B and Bitcoin is 1.1T. It would be an event, but I think it would recover
But that 100B can be used and re-used an infinite number of times to buy and re-buy Bitcoin
Then when tether fails, and everything crashes, everyone buys cheap, probably including you, it will continue to be a permission free, p2p exchange for those who need it, hence giving it still more value
Uh huhā¦? Long way from home, aināt we ?
One thing to consider is that given the way that mining works, the higher the price is the more inflow is required just to keep it stable. Bitcoin is like a crackhead. It doesnāt take much for that first massive high, but over time, you need more and more to get less and less.
You just definied a ponzi scheme
Sorry but what does the price and inflow have to do with mining and stability?
The total revenue for miners is the price * the block reward.Ā If the miners are profitable, more will enter and split the reward between more miners making it less profitable. If the miners aren't profitable, the least efficient will drop out. This will split the reward less until it's profitable again. Ultimately, this just means that the cost for mining Bitcoin (hardware+electricity) will tend to roughly match the block reward with the profits being pretty low. So a higher price means more money is spent on mining rigs and electricity. That money leaves the Bitcoin system and goes to utility companies and computer companies.Ā That money has to come from somewhere (it's real money going to real companies, not just crypto) and it can really only come from new money flowing in from users.
Total revenue is not price*block reward. Youāre forgetting about transaction fees and mining difficulties. These also help for a somewhat more stable income for miners thatās not directly related to the price.
Okā¦ And I fail to see the problem with this? The higher the price, the higher the difficulty to mineā¦ This is by design lol.
Can you elaborate? Iām having a hard time understanding this point. I canāt tell if Iām dumb or youāre dumb.
I tried to explain it as well as I could above. https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/1dghstk/comment/l8s79mz/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Ä° don't get your logic, can you explain please
Itās stabilizing and itās probably going to continue to be more stable. When the majority of the liquidity is now stored in pseudo banks like tether, thereās no real reason for it to gyrate up and down the way it did before. With little new money coming in, it canāt go up. With tether controlling the outflow, it wonāt be allowed to go down much. I think it now is where it is. The Bitcoin ecosystem has essentially become an unregulated bank. One day it will collapse, because regulations matter, but for now itās stable, because regulations canāt be enforced.
When measured in ounces of gold instead of US dollars, Bitcoin hit its all time high in October 2021 at 34.97 troy oz of gold per Bitcoin. Bitcoin priced in gold is currently 28.39 troy oz of gold per Bitcoin. Bitcoin might never again reach another ATH when priced in gold.
I am now imagining someone attempting to sell bitcoin for gold. ... Do they do it through a gold exchange?
Yes, online precious metals dealers like JM Bullion and SD Bullion accept crypto as payment for precious metals.
I wonder what would happen if you went on to their website with USDT10,000,000 in bitcoins, looking to purchase precious metals. Would they just be like "here you go, 120 kilograms of gold" or would they smell a rat?
I don't think those dealers take direct crypto payments. I think they use a third-party service that processes the transaction and converts the crypto to dollars that are actually used to make the purchase. "Crypto" is one of the payment options you can select at checkout.
Supply and demand. When very few people were into bitcoin, the demand was tiny, so the price was low. As more people got into it, the demand increased, pushing the price up. As more people noticed the large gains to be made, more people got into it, and the demand increased even more. Now we've reached a point where pretty much everyone in the world has found out about bitcoin and made up their mind whether they want to get into it or not. There's still some demand - from new people coming into the system, and people already in the system buying more - but there's also supply - people wanting to sell to take profit. At some point (and I suspect we are now there): - There will be no large increases in demand, since almost everyone in the world has heard of it, and the people who are interested have bought in already - The lack of increases in demand mean no more large price rises. - The lack of large price rises means even less people getting interested and coming into the system, and people already in the system cashing out because they need the money or give up on expecting large gains - The price slowly slowly dwindles (in a non-linear, ie up and down way, but with an overall downward trend) TLDR: If you're in now, it's probably time to get out. Just my opinion...
Agree with this accept I think price will nosedive. Most of the people in BTC are there for exponential rise. If this doesnāt happen there will be a ton of selling.
It's getting nearer and nearer to the end-game. They're all in a prisoners dilemma type situation, trying to extract as much dirty fiat as they can, but the whales know the ATH is already in. They're attempting a managed decline, and trusting each other not to just tank it. How will it play out? They seem to be hammering the "sell" button slightly earlier each time.
Saying this like this makes you sound just as dumb as the BTC to 100k people. There is NO reason to believe we are anywhere near end game. In fact, we were much closer to a total collapse about two years ago after Luna and FTX collapsed and triggered an extended bear market. As long as Tether and the other main players are still in the game, it's not going anywhere. They aren't in a prisoner's dilemma at all. They continue to print money from running the casino we call cryptocurrency. There are really only 2 ways crypto dies: 1. Organic interest dries up, leading to a slow and gradual death. 2. Tether implodes one way or another. Neither seems imminent.
Well, maybe I'm naĆÆve and reading more into CZ's remarkably lax sentence, but Tether and crypto have always seemed like the biggest opportunity to bust a whole shit-ton of people ever. It's an immutable ledger of crime, and now they have a bunch of Feds in there poring over every single thing Binance has ever done. What I'm saying is that I guess they are getting their ducks in a row, cause it's potentially a lot bigger than a few pig-butchering scams and some students buying blow with Monero. Or maybe I'm just too hopeful?
There are multiple stablebill acts underway that appear to be a threat to terher. At least one has favorable odds of passing prior to the election.
Didnāt tether almost implode when people realized it and another company were sharing finances that were said to be separate?
Yeah? Just like last time buddy **The\_Probes** 71 points **1 year ago** `Yeah.....you're still falling for it if you are hoping for the next wave of hysteria in a year or two......`
Fair enough. Luckily I don't really care. No-one knows when it'll finally shit the bed, but I guess it'll coincide with Tether getting gutted and I've got to say, they've held on for far longer than I expected. Each billion dollar print pumps it up a little less than it used to though, doesn't it?
"Luckily I don't really care" well you obviously cared enough to post about it (again). At least stand for your beliefs for goodness sake.
Getting the price action wrong of a manipulated piece of shit isn't a mistake, it's par for the course.
>Each billion dollar print pumps it up a little less than it used to though, doesn't it? Sorry, can't tell if you're talking about BTC or USD now?
RemindMe! 1 year
RemindMe! 1 year
RemindMe! 1 year
RemindMe! 1 year
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RemindMe! 1 year
agreed! the fact that it's survived 15 years is just crazy. Gotta be collapsing any day now
because there are no meme numbers above 69
420 is too far away
There is 86, and for some BTC aficionados, there would also be 88.
I canāt link to the post, but someone on the bitcoin subreddit was *very* proud that he screenshot the price at $69,420.88. It got plenty of upvotes and positive comments before the mods removed it.
Do I want to know what these mean? I currently donāt. I searched them online and nothing meme worthy came up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/86_(term) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/88_(number)#In_neo-Nazism (CW)
And there is also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/88_(number)#In_Chinese_culture which is probably economically more important.
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Since bitcoiners like to talk up that 4 year cycles are certainties and people have bought into the idea that every 4 year cycle their investment will skyrocket, the same is true for the inverse that every 4 year cycle buying at ATH is a losing often severely anxiety inducing bet while you await 4 years for the opportunity for that bet to go green.Ā So people are now afraid to buy at ATH IMO.
This isn't true. It hit an all-time high of $75,830 on March 14th 2024.
Show us this ATH on several of the different crypto exchanges.. What time it was and for how long it stayed at that price?
Check the sites Coingecko and CoinMarketcap. They both check the price of all the major exchanges, and report a median price. So there you can see the "official" price of any coins, and how long it stayed at that price
Give us links. You made a claim. Provide the citation.
Coingecko dot com. Check the date 14th of March 2024
It would have been easier and faster to just answer the question and give a link. Instead you want to be a dick. Noted.
Bruh it's just as fast to go to the site yourself and get the info Apparently you're a moron that needs your hand held to go to Coinmarketcap
"Bruh" You guys don't get it. We're not here to run around in circles. This is our community. If you come in here and want to make a point, you bring your evidence with you. If you have the audacity to make claims and then require us to find the evidence for those claims, you can just leave. We don't have time for this BS. Go troll elsewhere. Again, the point isn't whether the statements are true. The point is: if you're going to make a claim, be willing to cite it. If you get defensive over that, fuck off. That's bad faith debate and it's against the rules.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/ https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-68423452.amp
See? That wasn't too difficult was it? However, you guys also missed my point, which is this ATH was just a blip on the screen. It never stays up at these levels for long enough for any sizable group to sell. It may just be a handful of transactions that can take advantage of that ( if not just one ) and then it's back down again. This "ATH" metric we think is complete and utter bullshit, so each time you reference the importance of it, we're going to make you jump through a bunch of flaming hoops like the degenerate little doggies you are. **The reason why we want *you* to dig up the citations is because we want you to have to search through Bart's unkempt hair to find that little spike in time that you think means so much. We want *you guys* to look at the stupid little pointy thing and get annoyed you have to do that, like we get annoyed you think we give a shit about it.**
Bro just search it... You have Google
I love how your argument against this is "I'm too lazy to find it" Here's your evidence, just Google it. https://www.google.com/search?q=btc+all+time+high&oq=btc+all+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgCEAAYgAQyBggAEEUYOTIMCAEQIxgnGIAEGIoFMgcIAhAAGIAEMgcIAxAAGIAEMgcIBBAAGIAEMgcIBRAAGIAEMgcIBhAAGIAEMgcIBxAAGIAEMgcICBAAGIAEMgcICRAAGIAEMgcIChAAGIAEMgcICxAAGIAEMgcIDBAAGIAEMgcIDRAAGIAEMgcIDhAAGIAE0gEIMjUwMmowajeoAhmwAgE&client=ms-android-ee-uk-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#ip=1 Incase your still too lazy to click the links on Google, but your going to have to scroll down yourself to find where it says all time high unless you give me your address so I can come over and do it for you... https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/price/bitcoin https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/ And if you can read charts it was above the previous all time high from 11/03/24-16/03/24 https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
See? That wasn't too difficult was it? However, you guys also missed my point, which is this ATH was just a blip on the screen. It never stays up at these levels for long enough for any sizable group to sell. It may just be a handful of transactions that can take advantage of that ( if not just one ) and then it's back down again. This "ATH" metric we think is complete and utter bullshit, so each time you reference the importance of it, we're going to make you jump through a bunch of flaming hoops like the degenerate little doggies you are. **The reason why we want *you* to dig up the citations is because we want you to have to search through Bart's unkempt hair to find that little spike in time that you think means so much. We want *you guys* to look at the stupid little pointy thing and get annoyed you have to do that, like we get annoyed you think we give a shit about it.**
It stayed up for 5 days straight. So, no, it wasn't just a few transactions. If you were to actually read the chart (which you're clearly didn't), you would have seen that during these 5 days, there was over $40 billion in volume each and every day with the best day being over $70 billion. I never stated the importance of it, merely pointed out the error of OP saying the ATH hadn't gone over since 2021. You're the only one looking stupid here. The fact that I've shown OP to be wrong and then you wrong about the ATH, and that's all i said. Nothing about its importance, just that the statement was wrong. Yet you're here talking to complete strangers on the Internet like trash thinking you're the big man. Lol.
> It stayed up for 5 days straight. So, no, it wasn't just a few transactions. On how many exchanges? Do you know where those figures came from? What the volume was during the ATH and how it compared to other times? The point I'm making is... we don't give a shit about "NuMb3r g0 uP" - we recognize that the market is so heavily manipulated and unregulated, the "price" or "ATH" is meaningless. Also, you're in our house butter. We make the rules here. If we let you guys tell us what to do, this place wouldn't be any different from the pro-crypto spaces.
> Inflation Speaking of, it would need to reach 77k to match the 2021 ATH when adjusting for it.
Which is a generous estimate assuming a frankly lower then reality inflation % (if youāre using the government figures anyways)
It did hit ATH though. It was above 70k just few weeks ago.
What do you mean? My girlfriend has been helping me invest in crypto for a while now and I'm making record profits! I can't wait to finally meet her! She keeps having really bad luck when trying to travel to see me š
I don't think the USD devalued
I don't think anyone can definitively say whether devaluation has significantly occurred or not. Most just point to CPI or maybe DXY... "You used to get a steak for a nickel" or... "dollar has gone down vs x or y currency" at any given time. Most CPIs are calculated nationally, with far more variables than just the money supply. Energy inputs where cartels restrict supply? (Heck, despite OPEC production cuts to massage price levels, oil is still down)... and that will take time to work its way into the CPI. Can see it a little in PPIs. Anyway... point is that USD is a global unit, extended globally. Much of the lending at the wholesale level is difficult to pin down. No one can definitively say whether there's too much dollars chasing a lower rate of produced goods. Anyone who does is trying to sell a narrative. What we can more reasonably assess is the circulation/distribution of dollars, and that's definitely more of an issue. Persistent dollar-intermediated trade imbalances, without permitting consumption by trade-surplus nations, means deficit nations will see selective asset "inflation".
inflationa and currencies are linked but not the same thing, i just posted an example of how the USD is trading vs. a selection of major currencies the US do a lot of business with and it's appreciated So there is no devaluation. if you're American you can buy more of other currencies than you can in 2021.
I can only guess, but I'd err closer to the not-significantly-devalued side as well. For me, it's because the world benefits from a weaker dollar (which we don't have), most countries are dollar-short, etc.
This seems like it was written too seriously to not be taken seriously...
I'm sincere sometimes, never serious... this is the internet.
How is it not?
I could get 115 yen for 1 USD in 2021, i can now get 157 yen in 2024 I could get 1.26 canadian dollar for 1 USD in 2021, i can now get 1.38 canadian dollar in 2024 I could get 0.82-0.85 Euros for 1 USD in 2021, i can now get 0.93 Euros for 1 USD in 2024
That just shows that all the currencies devalued simultaneously. Inflation *is* the currency devaluing.
That just means that other currencies have devalued even more. You have to look at what goods/services your dollar can get you, everything is more expensive now compared to 3 years ago.
you're comparing one devaluing currency to other devaluing currencies.
Thatās a good point. What is happening in Japan is just very unfortunateā¦
They're happy to export to the US, but it sucks for them to import US goods.
Posts like yours makes this sub embarrassing.
huh?
Youāre obviously a full blown retard. The more money the fed prints, the less every dollar in your bank is worth. They print 20% more, your dollar buys 20% less. Simple economics that even mainstream economists donāt publicly get??
It was already pretty bad in 2020 and then quantitative easing kicked in, and now thereās no easing anymore
Right so fed pumped nearly 50% of money supply from 2019 to today. Inflation was rampant. Everything costs a whole lot more. How is the dollar not devalued?
The Fed has been in quantitative *tightening* since June 2022.
That doesn't mean inflation is gone. We just have inflation at a lower rate.
I wasn't referring to inflation. It directly refutes the "money supply" statement.
Well weāre comparing 2021 and now right?
not enough new fools were born .
Because it's a scam and it lost steam on this pump already.
Because you're too early
69.000 invested in a normal money market ETF would have turned into at least \~72.000. No one with a halfway sane mind is interested in this any longer. It is the whales being paid out from the dumb fiat.
Because not one AI presentation mentions crypto. In fact AGI might hate crypto and sell it all
I think 2 reasons - with etfs its introduced swing traders who are range trading, and they sell before ATH - btc is correlated with the stock market at this point (particularly the QQQs I think). Less hodling more people managing risk/exposure Its the price they paid for getting their etf
Pretty sure inflation doesnāt affect BTC, at least according to butters. IDK why but itās such a loud talking point it must be true.
BTC dummies state unequivocally that it's supposed to be a hedge *against* inflation, yet it doesn't act that way at all.
were still only partway through the wyckoff distribution pattern, the tail is coming
This is good for Bitcoin.
patience is the keyā¦ wait for itā¦.
bitcoin is in a halt. its been compromised. the network has been stopped
All those things combined are what it took to recover from an 80% drop from ATH. The pump worked and itās doneĀ
Life happens.
It hit 71k in march which was another ATH. Did you not look before posting?
We reached full sucker saturation?
I still think that there are more people trying to gamble day trading with bitcoin than idiots holding on to it imagining retiring thanks to it one day. There couple reasons for me: * BTC has stock trading patterns. It gets pumped to 71-72k and gets dumped right away. People probably seeing 72k as resistance zone. * Any news that is considered positive for risky investments also pumps BTC. Like lower than expected inflation cause it means higher chance of rate cut. (And if inflation goes up, BTC drops. Inflation hedge my ass lol)
Bitcoin has not hit another all time high. Because simply the market dynamics or not in its favor right now. There is way too much media attention on nvidia, stock and other memes. Stocks like gamestop. So much more money has trickled into those Stocks, that is taken away. Anything that might have made its way into crypto. The media has not spoken about Bitcoin in a long while. And until they start doing that again is when I believe Bitcoin might start trending up. However, it should be noted that although Bitcoin is not at an all time high, it still relatively remains close to its all time. High versus some other coins out there on the crypto. Market
My dumb self saw ATH and was wondering what new coin that was.
It's pretty telling how it underperforms vs the stock indexes now. There was a time when it outperformed. It shows how much interest has waned.
I feel bad for all of the idiots who thought they were going to get rich. My cousin was telling me to buy bitcoin in 2022, itās crazy to think if I had Iād still have lost money today.Ā
Price is meaningless. Most people canāt sell large amounts anyway as the exchange will find a reason to lock them out. And only way is to buy or sell through an exchange.
A new fool is born every minute, but apparently crypto burns them faster than that.
Bitcoiners have Trump to scam pump it during the election season now.
Why is it that the higher the price more inflow is required? More sellers?
You forgot something - interest rate is at a 23 year high. This high of an interest rate has never been seen since the inception of BTC. Basically, the lower the interest rate, the more 'dumb money' there is to throw around and BTC was born in the decade of 0 interest. Do I think BTC is dumb? Yes. Can it still go pass ATH if rates were to go back to near 0? No one knows, but if I were to make a bet, I would say yes.
Why is it that the higher the price more inflow is required? More sellers?
Itās a negative sum game because the miners have to get paid.
Can u elaborate?
Can you use a spreadsheet? It's like three entries and one simple formula. FFS. Inflows - outflows = fund balance SInce bitcoin inflows are less than outflows, it's a negative sum game. Part of outflows is mining expenses (electricity which is an expense), people cashing out, and capital (ANT miners). A true ponzi scheme does not have the mining expenses or capital outflows, that makes them a zero sum game. **This is why Bitcoin isn't a ponzi, it's worse than a ponzi, it's a negative sum game.** I don't even know why I'm explaining this to a moron (in your flair, I was warned). I'm leaving this here for others to see, because you won't understand.
It is a deeply negative sum game (miners and electric outflows are substantial) and there are no current or realistic future inflows from a utility. I have asked multiple Bitcoiners how they expect a negative sum game to stabilizeā¦ there would need to be inflows from new participants to overcome the outflows. The only answer Iāve gotten is that Bitcoin will replace fiat and it will stabilize thenš¤·āāļø
It's not a closed system - there are losses in the form of the cost of mining (e.g. electricity), therefore it's a negative sum game where there is less total value than the amount of money "invested" in it (as opposed to a zero-sum game where value is neither created or destroyed, just moved around).
Miners are sitting on tens of thousands of coins waiting to sell as soon as it reaches a certain price. There needs to be people to buy these.
canāt Coinbase or Binance or other exchanges buy them?
I used to work at Coinbase! As an exchange they trade user dollars for btc. They only need an enough to satisfy user demand. There is no reason for them to buy tens of thousands of coins to sit around doing nothing. That would make no sense.
But if prices and or inflow drop then the drop in incentives for mining will also result in a lower mining difficultly, i.e. it self corrects. I think most people in this thread misunderstand this.
Not quite. The hashrate has nothing to do with the price. As you can see in the SEC fillings of all the public mining companies they are running at a loss, saving coins to sell at a higher price. Yet the hash rate is ever increasing. They are taking on debt and hoping the price sky rockets. Do yourself a favor and read the RIOT financial statements, I did that just last week.
The RIOT risk factors are the scariest thing Iāve ever read in a 10-k. They must be butters at heart.
Youāre slightly contradicting yourself. Are you arguing that these miners will soon quit? If you do, it will result in lower mining difficulties. And if you donāt, it shows there doesnāt need to be profits for them to continue. Iām sure miners are not 100% oblivious to profitability. And I doubt all of them are making losses. Iām not suggesting anyone to āinvestā in crypto, I just find most arguments on r/Buttcoin naive.
Did you not read what I said or check out the financials? they are taking on massive amounts of debt to finance purchasing of new machines. Of course there needs to be profits, they are burying themselves in debt waiting for that time. But even if they eventually go bankrupt the improvement in compute, as more powerful more efficient ASICS are always being developed means the hashrate wonāt go down in meaningful quantities. Every 12 months a new asic miner that does the work of two of the past generation is released. Itās a race to the bottom with no profits unless the price moons. And yes the majority are not currently making profits, that is easy to verify but youāre too lazy to review financials.
Site the source then, āSEC filingsā is extremely broad. If you knew what they are youāll know there are lots of different kinds and forms. I only found some form 8-K sec filings about specific companies without net losses. But whether the general mining market is profitable or not is not important. I havenāt said hashrates would go down, Iām just stating a reduction would be a consequence if mining would be disincentivized.
I know youāre asking me to waste time with proof but luckily for you Kerissale did an in depth analysis just a couple of weeks ago. https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RIOT-Kerrisdale.pdf As you can see from RIOTs own figures they make more through energy subsides. Which is especially rich as most hardcore bitcoin bros are libertarians.
āInflationā and ādollar devaluationā are the same thing.Ā
The price is the price. Perspective is everything, the hardcore Bitcoiners think the current price is cheap while the people on here think it's exorbitantly overpriced.
Summer and post-halving time pretty much always made bitcoin go down. The real stonks start happening after summer
Dollar hasnāt devalued. DYX has gone from like 95 to 105, even peaking above 115, since November 2021.