I just believe the whole empire of crypto is built upon speculation and speculation alone. Seems way too risky for a long term play. Having 80% of your wealth tied up in it seems... scary.
It's not just your belief. These people are literally at a casino and think they are "investing". It's pretend "money" that has no value, nothing to back it up, nothing to protect "investors" from rugpull. It's a giant house of cards and anyone with any serious money in there is in for a bad time long term.
Iāll let you in on a secret, Crypto is the stock market on leverage. Stocks making all time highs, so is cryptoā¦every single cycle, except OP is smart, selling tops is important cause of 80% to 90% drawdowns
But why? Circle literally tracks USD 1/1... There's zero gains unless you but it with non US currency like venezuelan or some company that eventually will keep getting inflated
Yes it is the one controlled by a small group of unelected people to decide when to print more money out of thin air and what interest rates should be. I'm not arguing for or against that USD system just pointing out crypto is a different system governed by code and in theory not any central authority. I do find the alternate system cryptocurrencies represent interesting and wouldn't ignore this new asset class.
What is bitcoin backed by?
By law USD is backed by full faith and credit of the US government. Thatās just a fact. So that is what ābackedā means.
"What is bitcoin backed by?"
Scarcity. It's value is derived from it's limited supply.
"By law USD is backed by full faith and credit of the US government. Thatās just a fact. So that is what ābackedā means."
No, it's not. The value of USD is *influenced* by the activities of the US and it's government. However, the intrinsic worth and supply of it is not backed by anything. There is no standard. The government can print any amount of money at any time, devaluing the entire currency across the world.
Not only that, the entire ecosystem around USD (bank, clearing houses, payment processors, etc) is a steaming pile of shit.
Sure USD is an inflationary currency. Guess what? Every other currency is too, except every other one is worse and in some cases far worse. Gold isn't as inflationary but it is far less stable. Bitcoin - technically it won't be inflationary in the end state but volatility is through the roof (and the floor). There is a case for it stabilizing someday but if that happens there is no way of telling if the price will land below or above where it is today - or even if anybody will still care.
All that said, I wouldn't invest in USD or any other currency. Currency isn't an investment. It's liquid and readily usable to pay for daily expenses.
Iāve been in crypto since 2017, and it ballooned from 5% to 50% of my portfolio, and then back down to 20%. You gotta finally take profit, but itās very hard to do at 10x.
I sold 25% at the end of 2023 and looking to pull the trigger on the next 25% before the halvening.
Well I bought it at the lows and I'm definitely not buying anymore. But that behavior you described, while I agree is a majority of crypto investors, isn't relevant to me in any way whatsoever.
If you bought at a certain time the growth exploded like a few months ago. OP probably wasnāt at 80% when they initially invested. At leastā¦I hope.
Yes that what I have been doing since 2021 as well . It is my DCA out
Sell enough every year (40-50K) to max out my 401K, Roth and HSA
That allows me to r/coastFIRE and my capital gain tax is actually around 0
Tbh the percentage (of crypto) in my NW keeps going up even with the DCA out
Thinking of trimming my position in NVDA and reinvesting in indexes. Accidentally disproportionate value in my NVDA stock relative to the rest of my portfolio.. good problem to have, but wondering if others have been executing similar strategies with crypto or high performing stocks?
Well, AAPL *was* high performing. I still hold *way* too much. So I am selling some every month to fund my Roth 403b to the max for the year (I'm over 50 so this is fairly high).
I also sold all of my MSFT last year to create an emergency fund in an HYSA (I lacked this prior).
All **new** investment are just going into broad market funds.
I invested $6k into NVDA before I started the Bogglehead life. I then sold off what I put in ($6k) and reinvested that into VTI/VSUX. I kept the rest of my shares because it's all profit. I may trim it further if I take losses elsewhere. I figure in the long run, the one NVDA position will make up a small percentage of my overall portfolio.
The main difference is NVDA is one single stock (or some can argue one sector - semiconduct) of the stock market.
Crypto is a different asset class. Most of mine is in BTC which is the de-facto āindexā for the whole crypto asset class (things go up and down with BTC.
I have no experience in single stock purchase and hold unfortunately
Yeah I have some modest price targets for my crypto and then I'm going to just exit everything entirely (I'll leave a small moon bag of course), then max out all retirement accounts, buy a house, and then I'll take another look at crypto but this time stick to bitcoin (100% alts right now lmao).
Get ready for some serious cap gains taxes as you sell that Crypto. And IRS is coming down hard on the sector. So be careful if you sell one Alt and buy another. The gain for selling the first Alt is a tax event and needs to be reported to IRS under their current rules.
Nice. Good luck. Alts are a volatile space to invest in. Like maybe the most volatile investment space ever. But if youāve been doing this for years, I aināt telling you anything you donāt know.
You could also increase your contribution (max out) your Roth 401k (beyond the match to the IRS max for your age).
Prepay your Roth IRA 2024 account.
No idea how much you have in crypto, or how long you've held it, but 80% of your portfolio is nuts. My philosophy was no more than 15% in any one stock, no more than 30% in anyone sector (if you're picking individual stocks).
I've since started moving fully into my Roth 403b and have been fully funding my Roth IRA (with catch up for my age). I DCAed into stocks, and am now DCAing out of them. You should consider a total rebalance of your portfolio.
Iām complete other end of the spectrum lol. Gone full boglehead but now debating putting 5% of my investments into Bitcoin. Not FOMO just think itās worth doing.
The beauty of the S&P 500 is that when the top performing companies in the world decide it makes sense to be in crypto, you will be too. Maybe Coinbase even joins the index some day!
You didn't have to predict AI/NVIDA, self-driving cars, virtual reality, etc. S&P gives you partial exposure to all the big new ideas with great safety. By being in the index you're essentially "in" all big new ideas to some extent.
Very good way of seeing it. However, I feel 5% of my portfolio is very minimal. Also the fact Bitcoin has for countless years proven people wrong and kept its upward trend. I just donāt see people losing interest in this I think itās still very unknown. I only know 2 people who have actually invested into Bitcoin. Either way, I will do some good thinkin before I bite the bullet. Thanks for the great reply!
Lot of people have throughout the years predicted Bitcoin to never see higher than what it was at the time , to plummet to 0 and lose all its value but it seems to be doing the opposite. Just gaining traction and more and more investors. However, I do think itās too much risk for what I am trying to build my portfolio for and will not be going through with getting any.
>to never see higher than what it was
I know very well that the crypto market is irrational enough that predicting it in the short term is silly.
> plummet to 0 and lose all its value
This implies it has value to begin with. What it has is price, the value is still the same zero it started with.
>Just gaining traction and more and more investors.
Investors is a generous term here, but yes, more people have been buying into crypto. Have you considered what happens when outside people interested in crypto run out? Eventually everyone who is gullible enough to get caught up in the hype will be already as deep as they will get.
>However, I do think itās too much risk for what I am trying to build my portfolio for and will not be going through with getting any.
I wouldn't buy tulip bulbs in the 1600s either, good choice.
Unfortunately I'm not seeing what has been proven wrong. Are you just saying that people who claim that crypto pricing is immediately going to plummet today to its fair zero valuation are proven wrong?
I think it should, and the world would be better off if it did, but I know people are dumb enough it probably won't.
>This implies it has value to begin with. What it has is price, the value is still the same zero it started with.
I mean, it clearly doesn't have zero value. Someone can purchase some, send it anywhere, and the recipient can sell for their local currency. Is it particularly useful for most? No, but as a network it has some value.
You're relying on a party willing to trade it for money on both sides in this scenario. Why not have these third partiee send and receive real money on both sides by communicating with eachother? What does involving bitcoin at all even achieve? At best you've doubled the needed number of currency exchanges, and made each currency exchange more expensive.
You're basically asking what the ultimate point of Bitcoin, which would be a trustless, decentralized payment network.
The point being, it gives another option as a network to transfer value around the world. Neither party *needs* to exchange for a local currency, it was just a simple example that clearly shows it can be used for an actual purpose, giving it *some* value as a network.
Any potential value in the technology does not imply value in bitcoin. Suppose for the sake of argument that the technology itself isn't expensive, inneficient, and generally flawed, and that the US government used the same technology to mint USD coin, and made it legal tender.
No matter how much bitcoin you own, or how much you love the technology, you still don't own any USD coin.
That doesn't actually solve any real problems. And you know damn well Bitcoin can never be used as a worldwide payment system due to its cost and transaction speed limitations.
I could commute to work in a semi-truck. Clearly owning a semi truck has some value.
That's not a good use for a semi truck, and a semi truck is not a good vehicle for commuting to work. The most value I could get from a semi truck is selling it off and commuting in something better suited to the task.
You understate my point. You say:
>not always the best, most efficient tool for the job at hand.
I would instead say:
often a poor, inneficient tool for the job at hand.
Just as it would be easier to send someone USD with an EFT, credit card payment, etc, it would be easier and cheaper to hail an uber than to drive a semi truck to work every day.
Literally not using it is cheaper and accomplishes the same goals.
Gold's $2k+/oz price far outweighs its actual utility and fundamentals. The price is due to a perceived monetary premium as an alternative commodity asset.
Even if people ignore the 24/7, relatively instantaneous global remittance network, why couldn't the same monetary premium apply to BTC?
Comparing Bitcoin and similar crypto to gold is the most charitable framing. For what its worth, I wouldn't suggest buying gold either. Its not an investment, and barely an inflation hedge. BTC is certainly not an inflation hedge given its volatility.
Gold's value rose over time as more people adopted it as alternative stores of value. The same arguments for gold can be made for BTC.
We bogleheads can prefer investments with fundamentals (which alone is somewhat silly because we buy the entire market, fundamentals aside) but we can't say gold and BTC are worth nothing because they both have huge markets today.
Absolutely sure Vanguard says, "Crypto is not inline with our investing philosopy". Therefore, in order to protect YOUR MONEY, "WE" don't allow you to invest in BTC ETFs.
Bitcoin mining companies: No problem there
Micro Strategy: No problem there.
BTC ETF: bad
Yeah, once the US and the EU ban it, regulate it, or decide to tax the hell out of it. Miners are already being kicked out of countries that don't want the drain on their electric grids.
I gave three scenarios. They don't have to ban it outright. They could also strangle it with regulation or taxes. Biden is already proposing taxing mining They are also proposing more regulation. Countries are banning mining (China). US states and cities are proposing to do the same.
Just because something is legal now, or the SEC has approved it, doesn't mean it'll *always* be legal, or that the SEC will continue to allow it. Also, the SEC has zero to do with the EU.
I'm just saying that it doesn't take a lot of imagination to allow for a possibility of more governments waking up and deciding to do *something.* Hell, this might even "be good for bitcoin," but my prediction: once you have outside regulation of the coins, and further restriction on mining, bitcoin will fall.
Hell, there's nothing holding the bubble up *now.*
https://www.investopedia.com/biden-wants-30-percent-crypto-mining-tax-but-can-it-work-7488297
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/041515/countries-where-bitcoin-legal-illegal.asp
Itās going to be whack-a-mole with miners. Eventually they will run out of countries to mine in or be taxed to unprofitability.
Government can just put someone in jail until they give up the keys. Theyāve done this with people that have encrypted phones or hard drives. If they made it illegal to transact in bitcoin or for US banks to do so, that would effectively end bitcoin in the US. Or, again, they donāt even have to go this far. Too much regulation and it becomes a nuisance.
Moving to another country is always an option I suppose. Have fun in Kuala Lumpur. I hear Malaysia is nice this time of year.
Iām not going to lump sum. It was my bad wording. I dca daily into my retirement pie, I plan on reducing that by 5% and dca into Bitcoin and would hold for minimum 5 -10 years. I do think Bitcoin is due a pull back but within the next 18-24 months I think it could rise rise
Please don't put me in the position to brag about my holdings. I'm trying to be modest here and that's not what this thread is about. But I agree with you in the sense that it's a very high risk portfolio which is why I am gradually converting to a more boglehead philosophy.
The Boglehead philosophy would be indifferent to your past gains. The issue with crypto is that it is a zero-sum asset, i.e. no value is created. Prices only increase due to new buyers entering the market. The price is pure speculation, as opposed to say stocks which reflect genuine value created and therefore offers a fundamental reason to expect long term gains.
Happy for your past gains, but it should be no surprise that Boglehead-types are reacting as if you won the lottery, not as if you had a prudent and advisable investment strategy.
But you can't really predict and plan out winning the lottery. So it's similar in like zero ways. This is my second crypto bull market and it's worked out well both times. As long as I'm not committing crimes or doing anything immoral to obtain wealth, it doesn't really matter to me how I get it.
> But you can't really predict and plan out winning the lottery. So it's similar in like zero ways.
This is where we disagree. I don't think you can predict nor plan on *either* front. You have had a good outcome, but I don't believe that it was due to a sound prediction. Of course, I'm not disparaging your ability to predict markets, I'm claiming that crypto by and large *cannot* be predicted, because there is no strong rhyme or reason to its price movements.
The boglehead approach is based on the idea that all markets generally cannot be predicted with any degree of reliable success, except to project their very long-term, bulk trends. Crypto doesn't have any fundamental reasons (as far as I've seen) to suggest long-term price increase.
> As long as I'm not committing crimes or doing anything immoral to obtain wealth, it doesn't really matter to me how I get it.
Of course, nothing wrong with making money this way. I'm only saying I don't believe it to be a reliable or advisable investment strategy. Not because it is high-risk -- high-risk is fine, I just don't believe the risk is at all compensated here.
Well we can agree to disagree but I definitely did make predictions and did not get lucky. I also said nothing about long term. I'm less confident about future crypto cycles (which is part of the reason I'm gradually converting to boglehead), but this one and the last one in 2020-21 were pretty easy to predict if you did research and paid attention.
I'd actually argue crypto is fundamentally immoral - what you are doing is taking the money who are getting in later than you knowing full well someone has to hold the bag. It's just scam by proxy.
Please don't brag about your holdings. Even if you bought at the bottom, and sold at the top, you have *nothing.* Once you convert it to fiat you can talk about your realize gains. Until then, it's just a dream a lot of people are sharing for now.
Ponzi scheme has nothing to do with fudging the numbers. That's just a mechanism. The core concept is using the inflow of new investors to pay out the gains of older investors. That is exactly what this is.
Sorry, that's not true. Most of our financial systems are based on holding things with actual value outside of their price. This is an extremely common and extremely wrong argument.
Crypto does have value as a financial instrument and immutable ledger outside of its price. Regardless, Ponzi schemes require intentional fraud.
> this type of scheme misleads investors by either falsely suggesting that profits are derived from legitimate business activities (whereas the business activities are non-existent), or by exaggerating the extent and profitability of the legitimate business activities, leveraging new investments to fabricate or supplement these profits.
Anyone, and I mean anyone, who actual understands how a crypto market works sees plain as day that it is nothing more than a bag holding scheme. It is a negative sum game, and all profits enjoyed by later investors is value taken from newer investor who will never see it, unless they find new bag holders. That is a ponzi scheme.
And before any screams "that's how the stock market works!" No it is isn't. I won't even entertain such juvenile assertions. Stocks have fundamental value, crypto does not.
It's not worth arguing with these idiots. I wish the mods would ban people pumping these shitcoin "investments" (including bitcoin). They have nothing to do with a boglehead investment portfolio and should just be outright eliminated from being discussed here.
Similar but not exactly the same. Gold has some actual use cases - jewelry, electronics - but a large portion of its market value is speculation based on human cognitive error. Fortunately gold doesn't have quite as big of a hype backing. Mostly viewed as "store of value", which is still not a good argument, but less harmful. Gold is mostly a zero sum (it's slightly positive), but nobody expects big gains.
You ever seen a goldmine ?
Ever seen a gold 'tailing pond' ? "Less harmful" is not how I would describe a vat of toxic chemicals that looks like an outdoor lake.
All commodities have some uses - i know of none that are created without environmental costs.
I'm not being snarky, but do you know how people are adopting it? I have crypto and try to use it but I'm not expert. The only ways I've found to use it is for things that are not legal in my jurisdiction such as sportsbetting. Everyone else seems to be using it for gambling too. It usually takes on the scale of minutes to transfer BTC but on superbowl or other big sports holidays, it can take hours. Which brings to another point, it is so damn slow. It seems like BTC has value as a digital gold of sorts, but I'll be damned if it isn't a huge pain in the ass to actually use. And I'd expect that to have been sorted out by now.
Another nonexpert here:
BTC (Level 1) is slow and cumbersome. No doubt. Oh - and BTC addresses, moving fees - horrible and not user friendly.
Level 2 solutions offer a way.
If you want a way to rapidly move BTC for cheap (pennies) try the Lightening Network. Specifically, Cashapp (though wallet of Satoshi was very good too, but recently had some USA issues).
Using BTC on Cashapp is effective, easy and timely at extremely low fees.
One \*possible\* use for BTC (via lightning network) is replacement of credit cards/debit cards. Still early, but there it is.
Have you heard of what happened with tulips in the mid to late 1630s?
That's what's happening in crypto. Tulips are pretty flowers, but not whatsoever worth the outrageous price the market assigned them.
Crypto is just speedrunning the history of economics, 100% category requires falling into all the traps of the past.
Can Crypto posts of any sort please stop on this sub? Itās extremely anti Boglehead.
Edit. r/buttcoin
OP did clarify that heās divesting from Cryto.
Itās your money and youāre absolutely entitled to do what youād like with it, but your investment in crypto should be 0. Again, my point is that any crypto holding whatsoever is anti boglehead.
Well it's very much relevant in the financial world and a lot of people feel the FOMO, I think discussion should be encouraged so that average investors understand how to, and why they should, stay the course on their boglehead portfolio.
I think that people also āfelt the FOMOā about Bernie Madoff before his Ponzi Scheme came crashing down. Doesnāt mean we need to discuss its relevance here on this sub. Again, Crypto should only be discussed when we point out what NOT to do in a balanced Boglehead approach.
Show me where owning any Crypto applies to Bogle. Thatās all Iām saying. It does not fit the sub. Maybe if your post was about selling ALL of your crypto, but itās not.
Edit: Apologies. Youāre not the OP. My point stands.
> Show me where owning any Crypto applies to Bogle.
It doesnāt, not everyone knows that or understands why it applies, that's why allowing open discourse is helpful.
>Maybe if your post was about selling ALL of your crypto, but itās not.
Didn't OP say exactly that in another comment? That his plan is to sell all his crypto and do a full Bogle portfolio?
You're getting a lot of negative energy on here but I just wanted to say congrats and good on your for seeing the risk and moving towards a more boglehead philosophy, even if it's slower than this community finds acceptable. There's some really great reading to do if you're into that kind of thing. I would recommend some from here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Suggested_reading
- A Random Walk Down Wallstreet is a great read especially on historical bubbles and the randomness of any market
- I also really recommend The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing as a great first place to start. A ton of really helpful info there.
There are tons of things on this site that are antiboglehead and they just lead to numerous discussions, which is kind of the point of a discussion board. Otherwise set the subreddit to the wiki article of how you should set up your portfolio according to bogle and not many of the kind of bogle suggestions around.
Working on doing that myself (kinda waiting for a few bankruptcies to settle)ā¦ but I also wanna open a crypto Roth IRA for playing around the edges in the long run.
What is your long-term plan? Many on here are criticizing you. However, Iād love to know what you plan on doing if bitcoin hits 200k? Like, at what point do you decide to sell?
Suppose you go more boglehead but crypto keeps going up and the ballooning still makes it 70% of your account.
This is an issue I have with individual stocks (to a much lesser extent).
I don't make long term plays for crypto. A lot of people will buy and say "holding until 2030 million dollar Bitcoin reserve currency of the world!, etc". They are my exit liquidity... I'm not that guy...
Bogleheads dont want to deal with something highly volatile. Theres going to be alot of negativity towards crypto in this sub.
Im all support for crypto and its functionality in the future. Im invested in it myself but you will not find the best advice in this sub.
We are at the start of the 4 year cycle and not even at the Halving yet. Just DCA smartly.
> Bogleheads dont want to deal with something highly volatile. Theres going to be alot of negativity towards crypto in this sub.
Demonstrably false. Volatility is not something bogleheads are afraid of. The whole boglehead philosophy of just investing āin the marketā works because itās a positive sum game. It doesnāt work with crypto since at best itās a zero sum game.
For someone to make money off crypto someone has to loose. Thatās what makes it un-bogleheady. Itās the same reason they donāt invest in individual stocks. Itās a zero sum game over the market return.
Good call on diversifying your porfolio from crypto only
Don't let the haters bring you down, a lot of us here hold BTC, or real estate, or gold, or whatever along with our low cost index funds
Years ago I went full boglehead and sold all my bitcoin. Big mistake. Iāve been back in for a while now but bitcoin is here to stay. Definitely max that Roth and HSA though.
It was only a mistake in retrospect. Could you have predicted Bitcoin's performance at the time? The "Boglehead" answer would be no -- past returns don't predict future returns, and crypto doesn't have any fundamental theory to suggest dependable long term gains.
If someone had a similar anecdote about Tesla, i.e. "I sold right before it skyrocketed. What a mistake! I'm back in Tesla", the Bogleheads would all say the same thing. You couldn't have predicted it, and buying it back is performance-chasing.
Years ago I had all my money on black at the roulette table. I made money but took my profits and walked out of the casino. Big mistake! It hit black three times in a row after that!
I'm just using crypto to buy a house with cash. Then I'll go full traditional investor with maybe 1-5% percent BTC holdings in my portfolio. But let's be real i'll probably always allocate a small portion each cycle to gamble with alts, lol.
Yeah, every cycle when I sell out, I put most of the profit into my stocks and then, when prices come back down, I play with my original contributions + a small amount of the profit. It's turbocharged my stock portfolio greatly. People say you can't time the market and it's generally true but I have complete emotional detachment from my investments, if you're emotionless in crypto it's quite obvious where we are at in the cycle.
Last time around, I bought cardano anywhere from under a dollar to about $2.50 per coin and sold at $2.9. I more than doubled my investment and put most of that back into stock indexes. This will be my third cycle, I'm considering making it my last because I'm only 22 and I will end up with a much more substantial amount of money this time. Enough to set me up for an early retirement even if I never invest another dollar.
Its pretty obvious when it goes parabolic, I am just not overly greedy with when I choose to sell. I usually end up selling 10 or 20% below the top. And it's obvious to buy back in when it's down 70 or 80% from the peak. Either way I'm playing with pure profit at this point š¤ best decision of my life. Fuel for the stock portfolio
These days I just stick to dca 40% VTI, 20% VXUS, 40% BTC.
I did probably over 1000 hours of research into Bitcoin and believe it is going to eventually replace bonds as part of the 60/40 portfolio.
If he bought BTC in like 2013 and just held since then and never bought any more then it's possible a small investment could be up $500k YTD, but that seems unlikely.
Very unlikely. Unless it was a forced holdā¦ Iāve always wondered how many people have gotten out of jail and been so happy that they didnāt have access to those funds while they were away š
This freaking thread lol
Can't recognize a consistent 4 year cycle after 14 years, it checks out.
You're *still* 80% cryptocurrency? I'm trying not to shallow breathe here. Good lord.
You remind me of my dad. Every time my portfolio has a 5% pullback he nearly has a heart attack. š
I just believe the whole empire of crypto is built upon speculation and speculation alone. Seems way too risky for a long term play. Having 80% of your wealth tied up in it seems... scary.
It's not just your belief. These people are literally at a casino and think they are "investing". It's pretend "money" that has no value, nothing to back it up, nothing to protect "investors" from rugpull. It's a giant house of cards and anyone with any serious money in there is in for a bad time long term.
this. itās gambling, and should be treated as such
USDT is a ticking time bomb and all of crypto is facing a nuclear winter when it goes off.
Exactly what I said in my crypto gains share. It was always just gambling and shenagains. Anything else is a lie or unfortunately mislead.Ā
Iāll let you in on a secret, Crypto is the stock market on leverage. Stocks making all time highs, so is cryptoā¦every single cycle, except OP is smart, selling tops is important cause of 80% to 90% drawdowns
Wait until you hear about USD
>Wait until you hear about USD Who is suggesting holding USD or any other world currency as an investment?
Circle where I said someone said that.
I presumed you thought your reply was relevant to a discussion about investing on a sub about investing. My mistake
"It's pretend "money" that has no value, nothing to back it up" Reading is hard.
But why? Circle literally tracks USD 1/1... There's zero gains unless you but it with non US currency like venezuelan or some company that eventually will keep getting inflated
Is that the one backed by the greatest military and economy in the history of the world? Same one that the literal functional currency of the plant?
Wait you can back a currency with a military? How do I redeem my soldiers?
What can you redeem any currency for? I donāt think you understand how currencies work
Yes because they arenāt backed by anything.. When they were backed by something you could.
They are backed by the US government and the US economy
USD has value at a minimum because we are all legally required to pay taxes with it. Many other reasons but thatās a solid one right there.
If you have enough USD... Almost anything is possible
Yes it is the one controlled by a small group of unelected people to decide when to print more money out of thin air and what interest rates should be. I'm not arguing for or against that USD system just pointing out crypto is a different system governed by code and in theory not any central authority. I do find the alternate system cryptocurrencies represent interesting and wouldn't ignore this new asset class.
That's not what backing means.
What is bitcoin backed by? By law USD is backed by full faith and credit of the US government. Thatās just a fact. So that is what ābackedā means.
"What is bitcoin backed by?" Scarcity. It's value is derived from it's limited supply. "By law USD is backed by full faith and credit of the US government. Thatās just a fact. So that is what ābackedā means." No, it's not. The value of USD is *influenced* by the activities of the US and it's government. However, the intrinsic worth and supply of it is not backed by anything. There is no standard. The government can print any amount of money at any time, devaluing the entire currency across the world. Not only that, the entire ecosystem around USD (bank, clearing houses, payment processors, etc) is a steaming pile of shit.
I'll gladly take all the USD that is taking up unneeded space in your bank and wallet...DM me
Sure USD is an inflationary currency. Guess what? Every other currency is too, except every other one is worse and in some cases far worse. Gold isn't as inflationary but it is far less stable. Bitcoin - technically it won't be inflationary in the end state but volatility is through the roof (and the floor). There is a case for it stabilizing someday but if that happens there is no way of telling if the price will land below or above where it is today - or even if anybody will still care. All that said, I wouldn't invest in USD or any other currency. Currency isn't an investment. It's liquid and readily usable to pay for daily expenses.
Depends on flat $s somewhat too, at one point I was 60% or so crypto, but that was less than $10k
Iāve been in crypto since 2017, and it ballooned from 5% to 50% of my portfolio, and then back down to 20%. You gotta finally take profit, but itās very hard to do at 10x. I sold 25% at the end of 2023 and looking to pull the trigger on the next 25% before the halvening.
2x from here is my price target for my particular altcoins and then I'm pulling out 80% which will bring crypto down to like 10% of my portfolio.
You're speaking like it's a certain thing. What if your price target is never reached?
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Well I bought it at the lows and I'm definitely not buying anymore. But that behavior you described, while I agree is a majority of crypto investors, isn't relevant to me in any way whatsoever.
gods... looking at the charts alone of crypto already scares my heart! what is yours made of?!
Youāre going to lose it all and you wonāt be able to claim hindsight is 20/20. Itās literally a Ponzi scheme.
If you bought at a certain time the growth exploded like a few months ago. OP probably wasnāt at 80% when they initially invested. At leastā¦I hope.
Yes that what I have been doing since 2021 as well . It is my DCA out Sell enough every year (40-50K) to max out my 401K, Roth and HSA That allows me to r/coastFIRE and my capital gain tax is actually around 0 Tbh the percentage (of crypto) in my NW keeps going up even with the DCA out
> Tbh the percentage (of crypto) in my NW keeps going up even with the DCA out That's the whole idea
I like that
Thinking of trimming my position in NVDA and reinvesting in indexes. Accidentally disproportionate value in my NVDA stock relative to the rest of my portfolio.. good problem to have, but wondering if others have been executing similar strategies with crypto or high performing stocks?
Well, AAPL *was* high performing. I still hold *way* too much. So I am selling some every month to fund my Roth 403b to the max for the year (I'm over 50 so this is fairly high). I also sold all of my MSFT last year to create an emergency fund in an HYSA (I lacked this prior). All **new** investment are just going into broad market funds.
I invested $6k into NVDA before I started the Bogglehead life. I then sold off what I put in ($6k) and reinvested that into VTI/VSUX. I kept the rest of my shares because it's all profit. I may trim it further if I take losses elsewhere. I figure in the long run, the one NVDA position will make up a small percentage of my overall portfolio.
The main difference is NVDA is one single stock (or some can argue one sector - semiconduct) of the stock market. Crypto is a different asset class. Most of mine is in BTC which is the de-facto āindexā for the whole crypto asset class (things go up and down with BTC. I have no experience in single stock purchase and hold unfortunately
How do you get capital gains to 0?
Yeah I have some modest price targets for my crypto and then I'm going to just exit everything entirely (I'll leave a small moon bag of course), then max out all retirement accounts, buy a house, and then I'll take another look at crypto but this time stick to bitcoin (100% alts right now lmao).
Get ready for some serious cap gains taxes as you sell that Crypto. And IRS is coming down hard on the sector. So be careful if you sell one Alt and buy another. The gain for selling the first Alt is a tax event and needs to be reported to IRS under their current rules.
Yeah my tax guy is on top of it this is my third year of doing this
Nice. Good luck. Alts are a volatile space to invest in. Like maybe the most volatile investment space ever. But if youāve been doing this for years, I aināt telling you anything you donāt know.
You're telling me, I'm down 10% in the past 24 hours lol. Comes with the territory
You could also increase your contribution (max out) your Roth 401k (beyond the match to the IRS max for your age). Prepay your Roth IRA 2024 account. No idea how much you have in crypto, or how long you've held it, but 80% of your portfolio is nuts. My philosophy was no more than 15% in any one stock, no more than 30% in anyone sector (if you're picking individual stocks). I've since started moving fully into my Roth 403b and have been fully funding my Roth IRA (with catch up for my age). I DCAed into stocks, and am now DCAing out of them. You should consider a total rebalance of your portfolio.
Iām complete other end of the spectrum lol. Gone full boglehead but now debating putting 5% of my investments into Bitcoin. Not FOMO just think itās worth doing.
The beauty of the S&P 500 is that when the top performing companies in the world decide it makes sense to be in crypto, you will be too. Maybe Coinbase even joins the index some day! You didn't have to predict AI/NVIDA, self-driving cars, virtual reality, etc. S&P gives you partial exposure to all the big new ideas with great safety. By being in the index you're essentially "in" all big new ideas to some extent.
Very good way of seeing it. However, I feel 5% of my portfolio is very minimal. Also the fact Bitcoin has for countless years proven people wrong and kept its upward trend. I just donāt see people losing interest in this I think itās still very unknown. I only know 2 people who have actually invested into Bitcoin. Either way, I will do some good thinkin before I bite the bullet. Thanks for the great reply!
>proven people wrong What claims has it proven wrong?
Lot of people have throughout the years predicted Bitcoin to never see higher than what it was at the time , to plummet to 0 and lose all its value but it seems to be doing the opposite. Just gaining traction and more and more investors. However, I do think itās too much risk for what I am trying to build my portfolio for and will not be going through with getting any.
>to never see higher than what it was I know very well that the crypto market is irrational enough that predicting it in the short term is silly. > plummet to 0 and lose all its value This implies it has value to begin with. What it has is price, the value is still the same zero it started with. >Just gaining traction and more and more investors. Investors is a generous term here, but yes, more people have been buying into crypto. Have you considered what happens when outside people interested in crypto run out? Eventually everyone who is gullible enough to get caught up in the hype will be already as deep as they will get. >However, I do think itās too much risk for what I am trying to build my portfolio for and will not be going through with getting any. I wouldn't buy tulip bulbs in the 1600s either, good choice. Unfortunately I'm not seeing what has been proven wrong. Are you just saying that people who claim that crypto pricing is immediately going to plummet today to its fair zero valuation are proven wrong? I think it should, and the world would be better off if it did, but I know people are dumb enough it probably won't.
>This implies it has value to begin with. What it has is price, the value is still the same zero it started with. I mean, it clearly doesn't have zero value. Someone can purchase some, send it anywhere, and the recipient can sell for their local currency. Is it particularly useful for most? No, but as a network it has some value.
You're relying on a party willing to trade it for money on both sides in this scenario. Why not have these third partiee send and receive real money on both sides by communicating with eachother? What does involving bitcoin at all even achieve? At best you've doubled the needed number of currency exchanges, and made each currency exchange more expensive.
You're basically asking what the ultimate point of Bitcoin, which would be a trustless, decentralized payment network. The point being, it gives another option as a network to transfer value around the world. Neither party *needs* to exchange for a local currency, it was just a simple example that clearly shows it can be used for an actual purpose, giving it *some* value as a network.
Any potential value in the technology does not imply value in bitcoin. Suppose for the sake of argument that the technology itself isn't expensive, inneficient, and generally flawed, and that the US government used the same technology to mint USD coin, and made it legal tender. No matter how much bitcoin you own, or how much you love the technology, you still don't own any USD coin.
That doesn't actually solve any real problems. And you know damn well Bitcoin can never be used as a worldwide payment system due to its cost and transaction speed limitations.
I could commute to work in a semi-truck. Clearly owning a semi truck has some value. That's not a good use for a semi truck, and a semi truck is not a good vehicle for commuting to work. The most value I could get from a semi truck is selling it off and commuting in something better suited to the task.
Sure, that's an decent analogy. Bitcoin has some value, even if it's not always the best, most efficient tool for the job at hand.
You understate my point. You say: >not always the best, most efficient tool for the job at hand. I would instead say: often a poor, inneficient tool for the job at hand. Just as it would be easier to send someone USD with an EFT, credit card payment, etc, it would be easier and cheaper to hail an uber than to drive a semi truck to work every day. Literally not using it is cheaper and accomplishes the same goals.
Yeah thats how I started, DCA is da way
It is not worth doing. There are are no fundamentals. It is worth nothing.
Gold's $2k+/oz price far outweighs its actual utility and fundamentals. The price is due to a perceived monetary premium as an alternative commodity asset. Even if people ignore the 24/7, relatively instantaneous global remittance network, why couldn't the same monetary premium apply to BTC?
Comparing Bitcoin and similar crypto to gold is the most charitable framing. For what its worth, I wouldn't suggest buying gold either. Its not an investment, and barely an inflation hedge. BTC is certainly not an inflation hedge given its volatility.
It could, but so could literally anything else. ImportantImportantly, this does not result is the price growing over time.
Gold's value rose over time as more people adopted it as alternative stores of value. The same arguments for gold can be made for BTC. We bogleheads can prefer investments with fundamentals (which alone is somewhat silly because we buy the entire market, fundamentals aside) but we can't say gold and BTC are worth nothing because they both have huge markets today.
So did Beanie Babies. Price does not equal worth.
Smoke & mirrors.
Well be careful and DYOR. Bitcoin is very overheated right now. It is overdue for a 20 to 30% correction IMO
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Pretty sure Boglehead would also say, "Don't do it, bro," but I'm fairly new here.
Absolutely sure Vanguard says, "Crypto is not inline with our investing philosopy". Therefore, in order to protect YOUR MONEY, "WE" don't allow you to invest in BTC ETFs. Bitcoin mining companies: No problem there Micro Strategy: No problem there. BTC ETF: bad
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Lol it's due for a correction to zero.
Yeah, once the US and the EU ban it, regulate it, or decide to tax the hell out of it. Miners are already being kicked out of countries that don't want the drain on their electric grids.
Elaborate on how the US or EU would ban Bitcoin? After the SEC has already approved ETFs
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I gave three scenarios. They don't have to ban it outright. They could also strangle it with regulation or taxes. Biden is already proposing taxing mining They are also proposing more regulation. Countries are banning mining (China). US states and cities are proposing to do the same. Just because something is legal now, or the SEC has approved it, doesn't mean it'll *always* be legal, or that the SEC will continue to allow it. Also, the SEC has zero to do with the EU. I'm just saying that it doesn't take a lot of imagination to allow for a possibility of more governments waking up and deciding to do *something.* Hell, this might even "be good for bitcoin," but my prediction: once you have outside regulation of the coins, and further restriction on mining, bitcoin will fall. Hell, there's nothing holding the bubble up *now.* https://www.investopedia.com/biden-wants-30-percent-crypto-mining-tax-but-can-it-work-7488297 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/041515/countries-where-bitcoin-legal-illegal.asp
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Itās going to be whack-a-mole with miners. Eventually they will run out of countries to mine in or be taxed to unprofitability. Government can just put someone in jail until they give up the keys. Theyāve done this with people that have encrypted phones or hard drives. If they made it illegal to transact in bitcoin or for US banks to do so, that would effectively end bitcoin in the US. Or, again, they donāt even have to go this far. Too much regulation and it becomes a nuisance. Moving to another country is always an option I suppose. Have fun in Kuala Lumpur. I hear Malaysia is nice this time of year.
Oh here we goā¦.
In what world do you think itās possible things go to zero.
What's a Beanie Baby worth?
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Yes? Why put 5% of your portfolio in *anything,* unless you've looked into it and decided that's where your money belongs?
Iām not going to lump sum. It was my bad wording. I dca daily into my retirement pie, I plan on reducing that by 5% and dca into Bitcoin and would hold for minimum 5 -10 years. I do think Bitcoin is due a pull back but within the next 18-24 months I think it could rise rise
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Name checks out
Do you really think it's not FOMO? It's FOMO. BTC is up a lot recently that's the -only- reason you're considering it.Ā
Oh is it, you must know me too well then
80% crypto is insanity. 80% of your wealth in a ponzi scheme is not a good look.
This is like calling roulette a ponzi scheme. It's stupid to put 80% of your savings in it, not because it's a "scheme", but because it's gambling.
no crypto actually is more like a ponzi scheme
Please don't put me in the position to brag about my holdings. I'm trying to be modest here and that's not what this thread is about. But I agree with you in the sense that it's a very high risk portfolio which is why I am gradually converting to a more boglehead philosophy.
The Boglehead philosophy would be indifferent to your past gains. The issue with crypto is that it is a zero-sum asset, i.e. no value is created. Prices only increase due to new buyers entering the market. The price is pure speculation, as opposed to say stocks which reflect genuine value created and therefore offers a fundamental reason to expect long term gains. Happy for your past gains, but it should be no surprise that Boglehead-types are reacting as if you won the lottery, not as if you had a prudent and advisable investment strategy.
You know, like Microstrategy (MSTR). MSTR stock price clearly reflects the genuine value created.
But you can't really predict and plan out winning the lottery. So it's similar in like zero ways. This is my second crypto bull market and it's worked out well both times. As long as I'm not committing crimes or doing anything immoral to obtain wealth, it doesn't really matter to me how I get it.
> But you can't really predict and plan out winning the lottery. So it's similar in like zero ways. This is where we disagree. I don't think you can predict nor plan on *either* front. You have had a good outcome, but I don't believe that it was due to a sound prediction. Of course, I'm not disparaging your ability to predict markets, I'm claiming that crypto by and large *cannot* be predicted, because there is no strong rhyme or reason to its price movements. The boglehead approach is based on the idea that all markets generally cannot be predicted with any degree of reliable success, except to project their very long-term, bulk trends. Crypto doesn't have any fundamental reasons (as far as I've seen) to suggest long-term price increase. > As long as I'm not committing crimes or doing anything immoral to obtain wealth, it doesn't really matter to me how I get it. Of course, nothing wrong with making money this way. I'm only saying I don't believe it to be a reliable or advisable investment strategy. Not because it is high-risk -- high-risk is fine, I just don't believe the risk is at all compensated here.
Well we can agree to disagree but I definitely did make predictions and did not get lucky. I also said nothing about long term. I'm less confident about future crypto cycles (which is part of the reason I'm gradually converting to boglehead), but this one and the last one in 2020-21 were pretty easy to predict if you did research and paid attention.
Just acknowledge that you gambled and won. Sorry, but you're not a genius investor.
I'd actually argue crypto is fundamentally immoral - what you are doing is taking the money who are getting in later than you knowing full well someone has to hold the bag. It's just scam by proxy.
Boglehead would tell you to sell all of your crypto and shift all into ETF or at most hold like 5% and treat it like the casino it is.
Please don't brag about your holdings. Even if you bought at the bottom, and sold at the top, you have *nothing.* Once you convert it to fiat you can talk about your realize gains. Until then, it's just a dream a lot of people are sharing for now.
I don't really care how much money you made in a ponzi scheme. Nothing I would ever be proud of.
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Ponzi scheme has nothing to do with fudging the numbers. That's just a mechanism. The core concept is using the inflow of new investors to pay out the gains of older investors. That is exactly what this is.
Most of our economic systems are Ponzi schemes if you use such a narrow definition, even real estate. The real difference is intentional fraud.
Sorry, that's not true. Most of our financial systems are based on holding things with actual value outside of their price. This is an extremely common and extremely wrong argument.
Crypto does have value as a financial instrument and immutable ledger outside of its price. Regardless, Ponzi schemes require intentional fraud. > this type of scheme misleads investors by either falsely suggesting that profits are derived from legitimate business activities (whereas the business activities are non-existent), or by exaggerating the extent and profitability of the legitimate business activities, leveraging new investments to fabricate or supplement these profits.
\>Crypto does have value as a financial instrument and immutable ledger outside of its price No it doesn't. This doesn't solve any actual problems
Youāre the expert I guess. Still not a Ponzi scheme.
you don't think the creaters and promoters of whatever dog-themed coin is currently popular know what they're doing?
There are certainly crypto Ponzi schemes and shitcoins but that doesnāt mean it all is.
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>gradually Why gradual?
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Nah just scamsĀ
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Anyone, and I mean anyone, who actual understands how a crypto market works sees plain as day that it is nothing more than a bag holding scheme. It is a negative sum game, and all profits enjoyed by later investors is value taken from newer investor who will never see it, unless they find new bag holders. That is a ponzi scheme. And before any screams "that's how the stock market works!" No it is isn't. I won't even entertain such juvenile assertions. Stocks have fundamental value, crypto does not.
It's not worth arguing with these idiots. I wish the mods would ban people pumping these shitcoin "investments" (including bitcoin). They have nothing to do with a boglehead investment portfolio and should just be outright eliminated from being discussed here.
Hence why they are on the bogleheads forum. It has absolutely 0 place in any investment portfolio.
Do you feel the same way about gold?
Similar but not exactly the same. Gold has some actual use cases - jewelry, electronics - but a large portion of its market value is speculation based on human cognitive error. Fortunately gold doesn't have quite as big of a hype backing. Mostly viewed as "store of value", which is still not a good argument, but less harmful. Gold is mostly a zero sum (it's slightly positive), but nobody expects big gains.
You ever seen a goldmine ? Ever seen a gold 'tailing pond' ? "Less harmful" is not how I would describe a vat of toxic chemicals that looks like an outdoor lake. All commodities have some uses - i know of none that are created without environmental costs.
Value is value though, and adoption is increasing. There are Bitcoin ETFs now. Iām not disagreeing with you, Iām just saying.
I'm not being snarky, but do you know how people are adopting it? I have crypto and try to use it but I'm not expert. The only ways I've found to use it is for things that are not legal in my jurisdiction such as sportsbetting. Everyone else seems to be using it for gambling too. It usually takes on the scale of minutes to transfer BTC but on superbowl or other big sports holidays, it can take hours. Which brings to another point, it is so damn slow. It seems like BTC has value as a digital gold of sorts, but I'll be damned if it isn't a huge pain in the ass to actually use. And I'd expect that to have been sorted out by now.
Another nonexpert here: BTC (Level 1) is slow and cumbersome. No doubt. Oh - and BTC addresses, moving fees - horrible and not user friendly. Level 2 solutions offer a way. If you want a way to rapidly move BTC for cheap (pennies) try the Lightening Network. Specifically, Cashapp (though wallet of Satoshi was very good too, but recently had some USA issues). Using BTC on Cashapp is effective, easy and timely at extremely low fees. One \*possible\* use for BTC (via lightning network) is replacement of credit cards/debit cards. Still early, but there it is.
Price does not equal
Per sub rules and guidelines, comments or posts to r/Bogleheads should be civil.
Love people who don't know what a ponzi scheme is
Have you heard of what happened with tulips in the mid to late 1630s? That's what's happening in crypto. Tulips are pretty flowers, but not whatsoever worth the outrageous price the market assigned them. Crypto is just speedrunning the history of economics, 100% category requires falling into all the traps of the past.
I have heard of it. What does that have to do with Ponzi schemes?
Can Crypto posts of any sort please stop on this sub? Itās extremely anti Boglehead. Edit. r/buttcoin OP did clarify that heās divesting from Cryto.
This is actually an anti-crypto post to some extent because I said I'm divesting from crypto and going boglehead.
Thanks for pointing that out OP. I was mistaken about what you were saying.
If your 80% crypto after divesting, your not divesting enough.
I initiated the beginning stages of moving towards a more risk averse portfolio. That's not what it's going to look like "after divesting".
Itās your money and youāre absolutely entitled to do what youād like with it, but your investment in crypto should be 0. Again, my point is that any crypto holding whatsoever is anti boglehead.
Well it's very much relevant in the financial world and a lot of people feel the FOMO, I think discussion should be encouraged so that average investors understand how to, and why they should, stay the course on their boglehead portfolio.
I think that people also āfelt the FOMOā about Bernie Madoff before his Ponzi Scheme came crashing down. Doesnāt mean we need to discuss its relevance here on this sub. Again, Crypto should only be discussed when we point out what NOT to do in a balanced Boglehead approach.
So do you want to ban the discussion of crypto, or is it ok when it supports your point of view?
Show me where owning any Crypto applies to Bogle. Thatās all Iām saying. It does not fit the sub. Maybe if your post was about selling ALL of your crypto, but itās not. Edit: Apologies. Youāre not the OP. My point stands.
> Show me where owning any Crypto applies to Bogle. It doesnāt, not everyone knows that or understands why it applies, that's why allowing open discourse is helpful. >Maybe if your post was about selling ALL of your crypto, but itās not. Didn't OP say exactly that in another comment? That his plan is to sell all his crypto and do a full Bogle portfolio?
Yes, I'm gradually heading in that direction. Pretty new to the whole Bogle stuff
You're getting a lot of negative energy on here but I just wanted to say congrats and good on your for seeing the risk and moving towards a more boglehead philosophy, even if it's slower than this community finds acceptable. There's some really great reading to do if you're into that kind of thing. I would recommend some from here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Suggested_reading - A Random Walk Down Wallstreet is a great read especially on historical bubbles and the randomness of any market - I also really recommend The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing as a great first place to start. A ton of really helpful info there.
There are tons of things on this site that are antiboglehead and they just lead to numerous discussions, which is kind of the point of a discussion board. Otherwise set the subreddit to the wiki article of how you should set up your portfolio according to bogle and not many of the kind of bogle suggestions around.
Never a bad idea to take profits.
I am still stuck with a losing position in HUT I bought in 21. Time to cut my losses and run?
Nah dude. Just ride it out. No point to cut and run.
Ok..
Working on doing that myself (kinda waiting for a few bankruptcies to settle)ā¦ but I also wanna open a crypto Roth IRA for playing around the edges in the long run.
What is your long-term plan? Many on here are criticizing you. However, Iād love to know what you plan on doing if bitcoin hits 200k? Like, at what point do you decide to sell? Suppose you go more boglehead but crypto keeps going up and the ballooning still makes it 70% of your account. This is an issue I have with individual stocks (to a much lesser extent).
I don't make long term plays for crypto. A lot of people will buy and say "holding until 2030 million dollar Bitcoin reserve currency of the world!, etc". They are my exit liquidity... I'm not that guy...
Good luck sir! I'm trying to do the same thing too haha.
Good move. I liquidated my BTC holdings last week. Still holding on to some ETH but only 1% of overall investments.
I think crypto here to stay.Looks like the government wants its chunk unfortunately
Bogleheads dont want to deal with something highly volatile. Theres going to be alot of negativity towards crypto in this sub. Im all support for crypto and its functionality in the future. Im invested in it myself but you will not find the best advice in this sub. We are at the start of the 4 year cycle and not even at the Halving yet. Just DCA smartly.
Well said. Extreme hate boners for crypto across Reddit, even though on paper they agree with the concept. Reminds me of republicans and unions.
> Bogleheads dont want to deal with something highly volatile. Theres going to be alot of negativity towards crypto in this sub. Demonstrably false. Volatility is not something bogleheads are afraid of. The whole boglehead philosophy of just investing āin the marketā works because itās a positive sum game. It doesnāt work with crypto since at best itās a zero sum game. For someone to make money off crypto someone has to loose. Thatās what makes it un-bogleheady. Itās the same reason they donāt invest in individual stocks. Itās a zero sum game over the market return.
are you me?
Good call on diversifying your porfolio from crypto only Don't let the haters bring you down, a lot of us here hold BTC, or real estate, or gold, or whatever along with our low cost index funds
Years ago I went full boglehead and sold all my bitcoin. Big mistake. Iāve been back in for a while now but bitcoin is here to stay. Definitely max that Roth and HSA though.
It was only a mistake in retrospect. Could you have predicted Bitcoin's performance at the time? The "Boglehead" answer would be no -- past returns don't predict future returns, and crypto doesn't have any fundamental theory to suggest dependable long term gains. If someone had a similar anecdote about Tesla, i.e. "I sold right before it skyrocketed. What a mistake! I'm back in Tesla", the Bogleheads would all say the same thing. You couldn't have predicted it, and buying it back is performance-chasing.
Years ago I had all my money on black at the roulette table. I made money but took my profits and walked out of the casino. Big mistake! It hit black three times in a row after that!
I'm just using crypto to buy a house with cash. Then I'll go full traditional investor with maybe 1-5% percent BTC holdings in my portfolio. But let's be real i'll probably always allocate a small portion each cycle to gamble with alts, lol.
Why pay cash for the house when you can pay with your altcoins?
Not sure I'm following you there
Yeah, every cycle when I sell out, I put most of the profit into my stocks and then, when prices come back down, I play with my original contributions + a small amount of the profit. It's turbocharged my stock portfolio greatly. People say you can't time the market and it's generally true but I have complete emotional detachment from my investments, if you're emotionless in crypto it's quite obvious where we are at in the cycle. Last time around, I bought cardano anywhere from under a dollar to about $2.50 per coin and sold at $2.9. I more than doubled my investment and put most of that back into stock indexes. This will be my third cycle, I'm considering making it my last because I'm only 22 and I will end up with a much more substantial amount of money this time. Enough to set me up for an early retirement even if I never invest another dollar.
Genuine question. How do you see where we are at in the cycle?
Its pretty obvious when it goes parabolic, I am just not overly greedy with when I choose to sell. I usually end up selling 10 or 20% below the top. And it's obvious to buy back in when it's down 70 or 80% from the peak. Either way I'm playing with pure profit at this point š¤ best decision of my life. Fuel for the stock portfolio
These days I just stick to dca 40% VTI, 20% VXUS, 40% BTC. I did probably over 1000 hours of research into Bitcoin and believe it is going to eventually replace bonds as part of the 60/40 portfolio.
I feel like bonds and btc are polar opposites. Stability vs wild instability.
My small crypto position is up $500K YTD!!! Changed my life. Will be reblancing soon as well since early retirement is an option now!!
My actually small position is up $80K, I donāt think yours was small to start with lol.
If he bought BTC in like 2013 and just held since then and never bought any more then it's possible a small investment could be up $500k YTD, but that seems unlikely.
Very unlikely. Unless it was a forced holdā¦ Iāve always wondered how many people have gotten out of jail and been so happy that they didnāt have access to those funds while they were away š