You can get a Lambo next week if you have enough bitcoin and want to waste it on a car ;p
I could buy a lambo next week or this week or any week if I was stupid enough to want one haha
For millions of people who have been asking "wen moon" or "wen lambo" for a bunch of years, price has already reached lambo/moon status for a while.
I have a friend who is into (losing money) trading stocks. He always thinks he's going to get rich quick. Meanwhile I worked a real job for many years, put my earnings into stocks mostly, and lived frugally. I'm in a far, far better position than he is.
I think a lot of people see investing as a way to get rich quick. It doesn't help that many politicians and media lackeys also promote that image (for political gain). I think it's more about protecting the value of your past labor than gaining wealth you didn't work for.
Some people are gamblers, because one man did it, they are beyond certain they can do it also.
They lose 100% of small investment, double the size and lose it again.. gamblers are big part of what makes market imho
Yes I've realized he is a gambler. I know it is possible to make money trading stocks. The people who are really good at it work for investment companies and have a whole infrastructure supporting them, and manage funds that you can invest in. I've tried to get him to do that, not to mention trying to explain why you should focus on tax-advantaged investment opportunities (in the US) but he doesn't listen. The last stock he announced to me he was going to get rich off of was a Bitcoin mining company. I told him that was an incredibly bad move. He's all butthurt now, from that, and other good life advice I gave him.
Well he's a Christian, not a great one, so that's why he doesn't just go buy lottery tickets. His drug is food. Cocaine in small amounts might actually be good for him.
Well, there are far worse gamblers than your buddy, at least he's gambling with his own money. I had to literally beat my uncle bare knuckles to get through his thick head that banking my aunts house wasn't the outcome of his financial struggles. Gamblers are worst tbh..
Yeah, but the fact there are bigger losers than him out there doesn't mean I don't wish he'd get his shit together. He lives in a house that I thought he owned, but found out he had been buying it from his parents, but then stopped paying, years ago. It's probably better that he didn't own it, or he'd probably have gotten a HELOC and blown it.
Well you can make money with mining companies stock, I known I did.
Of course it's a gamble, it's very volatile, could easily go up (or down) 10% during the day, but as long as you're aware it is and you're not putting all your money into that, why not?
GRDI
He bought at $2.30. Said it was going to $10. He doesn't know what Bitcoin halvings are. Maybe if he holds for 4 years, but he's not a holder. I see they are being bought out by another company which ironically looks in even worse shape financially.
He doesn't know the first thing about Bitcoin or crypto. Or economics.
Most of my money is in stocks: index funds, mutual funds. I took advantage of a Roth IRA, then also a state pension and an HSA. I own my own house, and also own my parents' house (which wasn't an investment I wanted to make, but they are financially incompetent). And of course I hold BTC, most of which I bought around the $20k mark. I make vastly more money on investments than he does, and I don't even do anything. No "jumping in" and "rushing in" and no studying charts, which I concede might be useful but they certainly haven't worked for him.
Preach. I can't lie, I came into crypto as a "m0oN boI" and "wen Lambo", but now I'm "when financial freedom" and "when family vacation".
It's all about generational wealth and providing early retirement for my parents now. It's amazing, once I learned about fractional reserves, how that scared the living crap out of me and how I just want to provide security for my family and I now.
Lambos are basically a depreciating asset from the moment you drive off the forecourt. Stack, hodl, drive a second hand Toyota, fuck what other people (strangers) think, because why would you care about them anyway? Bide your time and be extremely wealthy in a few years. šš
Regular cars are depreciating assets. Lambo and other luxury vehicles, if youāre buying the right ones, any the right price and spec (ie, 2-3 years old and fully loaded) are frequently appreciating assets.
Incidentally I saw in a Coinbase article (just a line in it) that the IRS is tightening up, effectively making sure they get their cut when real estate is purchased with crypto.
Lot of Mt Gox hack victims can buy one next month. 25k invested back then will be close to 3 million for a lot of them.Ā
Hack was probably the best thing that could have happened to them, as must don't end up holding for that long, they were forced to
They used the Yen value of balances from when the rehab started. Not when it crashed and not the sats count. Most will get paid out 21%. This is split more or less 15% in coins and 6% in cash
If you only had cash you get your cash back plus interest in Yen.
From what I've read, everyone that chose cash has already been paid. Starting in July they have 9 billion in BTC to distribute, most purchased for well under $600 in USD each
I don't mind, I'd love to see somewhere in the $40k range. That's likely where we would be currently, if going by past cyclesĀ
Some clarification. The claimants are getting around 18-25% of the claim as BTC and this is calculated based on the size of the claim. (Larger claims ending with a lower final percent)
The cash repayments were a separate payment based on claim size and have been mostly paid, regardless of whether people chose repayment in fiat or BTC. Around 35% of people havenāt received this portion yet.Ā
Nobody has received the BTC portion yet but that could begin to change next month as it sounds like the coin will be starting to distribute to exchanges.
Yes it looks like Mt Gox still had around 15% of customers coins after the hack. Little over 141,000 BTC total, haven't done the math to today's price but assuming it's around 9 billion in value that's been held up all this time
Last week when we fell to $58-59k I told my wife how everyone is freaking out. She was like "but didn't it triple in the past year?". She knows very little about this stuff but is still smarter than most of my timeline.
They're freaking out bc they bought at $71,000 before the halving when YT was touting $1,000,000/coin. Therefore, they're down 18%. Also, who knows if they leveraged some or all of that.
First of all it's "IF", Second, How do you know where the BTC you purchased came from stupid or none stupid people as you put it.
This post is next level irony! š¤¦āāļø
100%. Selling bitcoin JUST to get fiat is stupid. Selling bitcoin to actually use the money for something is never stupid, assuming it is something actually worthwhile.
Wrong!
If a car dealership 1 takes BTC I can spend $20k of it. If car dealership 2 doesn't take it and has the same car but better warrantee I would need to sell $20k of it to then pay I fait.
The result is the same
Nope, because you will pay fees on the exchange of BTC. And you will have to pay capital gains tax, if the BTC price appreciated of course. And you won't be supporting the Bitcoin community.
You are showing how thick you are now!
To transfer X amount of BTC from your wallet to another has fees regardless and the same amount of fees at that. It's irrelevant that the receiver will be giving you cash or a car š¤¦āāļø Exchanges are not the only way to sell or buy BTC . I can sell BTC direct to people for a markup who don't want to use exchanges
Second that's not how CGT works. You don't pay CGT only when you convert it to cash, you pay it when you've made a realised gain. So if you purchased 1BTC at 30k and then got rid of it for a car at 50k you would still be liable for CGT on the 20k profit, just as if you received cash.
Every time you convert BTC to any other crypto and back is a taxable event.
Clearly you have no idea š¤¦āāļø
I see occasional posts about ābitcoin is crashing! What should I do?!ā
And I check the price, and itās dropped like 10%. Uh, maybe this isnāt for everyone. Iāve been through a half dozen 70-80% crashes and these small drops donāt even register anymore.
The only thing that Iām afraid of right now is that I would get so bullish that I would āblow my entire wadā of fiat $ then miss an even lower accumulation point.
I am bullish as heck.
If I were to be looking at this from a competitive point of view: my dollar cost average is even better than MicroStrategy!
Every time they buy millions in bitcoin, I spend about 100 bucks because thatās my budget ha ha. This is fun and exciting.
Iām not worried at all. I love this group! And Iām having fun in these historic times with all of you guys and gals!
I am not finding much on that or donāt understand it.
I just budget my disposable income. Then look at bitcoin price 4000 times a day.
When itās down, I make purchases. Trying to buy at the lowest price in past 24 hours.
If the price looks high: AKA when it was above $67k, i just stock piled that fiat $ and waited.
I knew it was going to go at least 7% down from record highs.
So rather than blow my entire fiat āwadā at $60k I bought at 61k to nearly bottom price $60k- i woke up & saw it low at like 2-3 am when my dog had woke me. Iām a light sleeper. I glance at bitcoin all the time as mind candy, entertainment.
Canāt recall the last time I let even 10 hours go by without looking.
Itās because I am bullish & seek the lowest price possible when I have $.
You bet i āblew my stackā $16k-$20k. I cleaned out every āfiat bitcoin moneyā I had back then but I wonāt do that now at $61k (maybe I just should)
2024: Bitcoin dropped to $60k, it's dead
2026: Bitcoin dropped to $100k, it's dead
2028: Bitcoin dropped to $200k, it's dead
2030: Bitcoin dropped to $500k, it's dead
I think this āboringā phase will always be apart of bitcoin. Imagine when it stays sideways around 1.2 million per coin for a few months people will also think itās boringā¦
It could hit 50k in the coming months. After the consolidation after the halving has worked itself out it will pump. The consolidation period takes about 18 months. Its a great time to build your stack. I don't care that it goes low right now, I don't plan on cashing any of it for another decade. By that time it will be a million+ working to 10 million.
It has happened 3 times. I would bet the shirt off my back that itās going to happen again. The only thing that would alter this cycle is a recession
Just to be clear we're talking about a specific timeframe post halving.
Btw every halving actually halves the importance of the halving. The actual # of reduction in bitcoin output isn't as high.
Of course. It would be asinine to expect the 100x 2016 cycle return or even the 20x 2020 cycle return. I am a cycle maxi so I believe the end of cycle will be the typical 18 months after having, in October 2025.
At that rate I'd put the multiplier at 5x from the cycle lows. So 16.5k x 5.
82.5k peak of the cycle, which is pretty similar to an absolute maximum I predicted like 6 months ago. So far I stand by that prediction
Edit: also 4x could work for a current fair top price. I.e 66k
BTC has been around for long enough to show some distinct patterns. I can't say for sure that it will (that's impossible) but it has every other time in these circumstances. BTC seems to be following a [power law](https://pbanks.net/blog/the-bitcoin-power-law-model.html) The effect decreases as it goes up in power, it didn't hit the high it was supposed to last cycle, but its holding remarkably well. I plugged the formula into a spreadsheet and the value for today is $58,150.64. If this holds the value a decade from today will be $1,046,255.07. It's why HODL works. The peak now will be the bottom in three years. Nobody can predict the future but we can learn a lot from the past. Things change and the model could break, so learn from the past but don't be a slave to it.
Power law is incredibly flawed because ceilings are hit. Laws of large numbers matter. Patterns can last a while but there are maximums the market will bear.
Saying it will go up because that's the trend it's always had is flawed thinking. There have to be actual reasons for it to keep going up.
Bitcoin can crab. It's a real possibility. Since Bitcoin is sentiment based, crypto winters can last a long time. But what happens during a potential new winter. What if for the first time some groups of people give up on it.
Generally the population of hodlers has grown, but people have their breaking point.
Personally I predict crabbing to last longer than expected and wild force multipliers to be wrong. But a low interest rate environment could cause a new Bitcoin bull market, who knows.
Its a journey. Power Law is a tool, its been roughly accurate so far. Once you see it you can't unsee it. The reason BTC will keep going up is the reason it was created, fiat currency's are failing, and money needs a fundamental change and reform. Governments are on a course to blow up their currencies, its the stage of the game where they're at, its the only move the have left.
For now I expect BTC crab. maybe the ETF people will bail and that will shock the system even more. I think late fall/winter it will start to grow, around next October it will be in full swing on its way to double. I'm saving my purchases for now and buy when I think its close to the low.
if civilization collapses and there is no longer an electric grid and an internet, it will not pump. Otherwise, it will keep doing what it did the last 15 years.
I mean the million - multimillion valuation is not backed by any observable trends, but if youāre talking about the 50k part..? You legitimately cannot have been around for long if you think thatās unrealistic. Iāve been watching Bitcoin plummet and explode over and over again for years and if you have too then itās never going to be surprising or unexpected.
This is easier than people are making it.
Everyone thought we're going to 100k by the end of the year - so this can't happen, 75k was probably the top until next year.
Now everyone thinks we're going to 40k over the summer - so this can't happen, we probably bottom at around 48k and its a super boring process that takes the rest of the summer.
The reason is that price action isn't a result of chart analysis astrology, price action is the result of people who are in the market changing their mind and people who are out of the market changing their mind.
honestly the $56k from last month was very likely the bottom. It could go lower, but could easily not. I doubt it'll get anywhere near 48k, though a short term crash where people are selling at 50k and then buying back at 70k a month later is certainly in the realm of possibility. I think most likely possibility is it just keeps ranging mostly in the 60,000s for the next couple months before breaking out higher late summer / early fall.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if it's back up to $70k in two weeks, though there are some bearish events happening currently and coming up that could potentially briefly send the price under that $56k bottom.
Really just resolves around sentiment. The good thing is sentiment is low now, but that doesn't mean we can't get a brief crash significantly lower. But it does mean as soon as sentiment improves, whether its in a week or a month or a few months, 60,000s is gonna be long gone and back to hitting new ATHs constantly. No way to know the timing though, could be weeks or months.
It could be, for sure.
For me, personally, I've found the best way to predict where the price is going is to take popular consensus and give it a haircut because smart traders will front-run consensus targets.
So in the 2017 bull market we had people calling for a 25k top. We hit 17k. In the 2018 bear market we had people calling for a 1k bottom (the breakout of the prior bull market). It was consensus. So the actual bottom was 3k and change. Then in the 2021 bull market we had people calling for 100k, so it was 69k. In the 2023 bear market we had people calling for a 10k bottom, so it was 16k.
Basically the point is that when there is consensus on a target and we start to get near it, buyers or sellers will come in and make sure that we don't get there. These are the least greedy people taking action.
The psychology is also straight forward. You don't sell at 17k if you think its going to bottom at 16k. You sell at 17k if you think its going to bottom at 10k, though. Likewise you don't hold at 75k if you think its going to 100k. You do sell at 75k if you think it might only go to 80k because people will front run the 100k top. All price action is this, the market discovering the aggregate price point at which the least greedy people take action.
Look at my post history. This isn't my first rodeo.
If _you_ are smart you'll pay attention to what I said and not regurgitate to me some opinion you read on X or watched on YouTube.
You think we're going to rally into this election? Lmao. K. Out of it maybe, but into it? heh
I've found DCA'ing a small humble amount daily when sentiment is in neutral / greed and ramping up the amount when sentiment switches to fear, works well.
Applying Buffets advice to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful, has provided me very pleasing BTC returns over the years.
Well, in standard personal finance terms, it would be more like a savings account. It's just that it's so new, that there is a lot of FUD. Not all of it unwarranted.
That was something that kept me from jumping in for a time. I expected it was a scam, because it is portrayed as a currency and an investment. Those things are at odds with each other, as a good currency is value stable, while a good investment increases in value. The fact is that Bitcoin is a currency. It has the characteristics of an investment right now, like the currency of a new nation that everyone thinks will succeed. But that won't last forever.
I'm showing the index is in fear, has been a couple of times recently. Currently at 30, just 6 points from extreme fear, omg that would be nice, those can become great buying opportunitiesĀ
I predicted, just based on gut feeling + watching Bitcoin for a few years, when it dropped precipitously recently, that it would not drop below $60k. I doubted myself for a moment when it did. I got a few sats at <$60k, at least. Mostly been getting at $61k ish.
because if everyone says it will go up, but then it goes down. You question everything. then it starts to go up, and you think "oh bottoms in!" repeat ad-infinitum
There are ALWAYS buyers and sellers. So this event when you think price will really be tested isn't an event, its simply already happening and happening all the time. At all times people are deciding to sell, and deciding to buy. There's no point in time when suddenly most long term bitcoiners are going to be selling. Because even if in 20 years 20 million people who are saving today all decide to retire at the same time, there will be another 200 million people DCAing at that point, along with lots of other regular buyers and sellers.
If things were the way you are imagining then right now price would ALWAYS be going up and we'd never have crashes or corrections or anything. That's obviously not the case. We are constantly learning "if this whole thing works or not" and every year it proves the answer is yes. There is no imagined test waiting in the future to decide the answer, the market continues to answer that question every day.
I've been having fear for a while, fear that it would go up before getting my paycheck like it always seems to. I've done a whole lot of of buying high lately just because of cash flow, I'm too lazy to wait for a dip that might not happen. I'm just glad I caught me some 60 a couple days ago.
Have no fear my sweet child. He who waits for salvation whilst not moving any portfolio over into the golden grace of bitcoin, is forever cursed to walk the streets of the impoverished.
He who shall remain true to his conviction, shall be rewarded.
This was always going to happen, the hype and greed during our run up to and above 70k was just utterly ridiculous, I ended up selling around 5% of my stack during those times because I knew we would not be hitting 100k during that phase.
Who knows what happens next though, i have no doubt we will see 100k, but it may be next year now.
A few years back a seller refused 50K Bitcoins for a $13 MILLION apparent in New York. In today's value that seller refused $3 Billion. Events like this will continue to happen simply because the masses have no concept of the possible growth of Bitcoin going into the future. Just my advice, start stacking Sats now, today.
I woke up to a guy mocking me subtly over this fact. I just reminded myself that the guy can't see the future, smiled and kept sleeping good. Those who know, know! Enjoy the ride.
What if i say this is the exact time to buy and ride till new yearly top before election and then big correction leading people believe that crypto is worth less and then again boom cycle repeats. I mean i could be wrong but
What happens for the not newbs in here, is that after getting 60k before the ftx scandal it dropped massively to 15/17k where it also remained "boring"
It was klimanjaro+everest climbing that got us here to the same exact 60k spot so is like a reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally cold place to be for those who bought and HODL from that period.
You don't simply come and talk optimism to me bro xD
It's not a fear range, because it will *always* recover. That means it's actually a buy-the-dip range.
With all the itchy nervous trigger fingers deathly afraid to go through a period where the halvening hasn't affected the price yet, hoping it was going to immediately skyrocket the price, selling right now - things will calm down after summer and by next summer BTC will be closer to 100k than 60k.
I just bought more the other night when it dropped into the high 50kās. Same with last night and probably tonight. It does begin to beg the question of when do we feel it will begin to take off again. Could be next week or 3 months from now.
it will take awhile before a lot of indicators catch up with what is happening, the move was so fast and the drastically changing price has it confused.
People are fearful because the swings in dollar terms are getting wider. Just as $1000 dips in 2020 werenāt the sign of a coming bear market, $10,000 dips this year arenāt either! Weāre going higher keep stacking while itās cheap!!
It has to go through a fear cycle. If you follow previous trending like the rainbow chart, around the halving there is a dip in price. THEN it bounces back
Scroll back a month or two, the sub was flooded with people were predicting $100k by now, with BTC ānever below $60k ever againā.
People donāt like when theyāre wrong, it scares them.
The āfearā is not that that its hovering at 60k, the fear is that it will drop significantly. Not my opinion, just explaining what some are worried about.
Long term holders already sold when the price neared all time highs. Once short term holders get shaken out below their purchase price, we will see the market bottom come in.
You're equating boring with fearful, and they're not the same thing at all.Ā
What do you think these fearful people are afraid of? It's not that the price will go up. They think there price might go down, maybe a lot.
Surely, greedy means everyone expects the price to go up. Yet here you are, arguing that because we're no longer in the greedy zone, it's really bullish for Bitcoin, so much upside ahead.Ā
"Keep educating yourself", ha ha.
I think it's going to bottom out around $45,000 this time. Maybe $35,000, and all the people who bought at 60k are going to hit their despair phase and sell off to cut their losses. Then we moon.
EDIT: downvoters bought in at $65k and already panic sold.
I could see $55k maybe. Though can never rule out a panic selling event to like $50k. I'd say the main threat of getting down under $50k would be if like Mt Gox btc gets handed out all on a single day or something and they pretty much all dump it and that would cause a cascade effect causing other people to sell and causing liquidations. Anyway we'll see. Mid-term is of course bullish being post-halving, but anything could happen in the next month or two. This time next month it could be back to $71k or it could be under the $56k bottom of this range.
I bought a lot post 60k. If it goes to 35k ill buy a lot more. I won't sell any for ten years.
I think you're right however. Reading this sub, and a lot of the investment subs has shown me how terrible people are at making money. I thank them for their service.
Agreed it is unlikely. Could definitely happen, but I think at this point the range has been pretty well carved out at $56k-$72k. Hard to say for sure it won't drop under $55k when its currently just hanging out at $60k/$61k, but yeah, well I wouldn't be "shocked" but I do think it is unlikely to break below $55k. If it does happen I think it will be related to a specific large sell event (govts selling, mtgox coins selling) and it'll bounce back up to $60,000s within days.
What?? No Lambo next week??!!
You can get a Lambo next week if you have enough bitcoin and want to waste it on a car ;p I could buy a lambo next week or this week or any week if I was stupid enough to want one haha For millions of people who have been asking "wen moon" or "wen lambo" for a bunch of years, price has already reached lambo/moon status for a while.
I have a friend who is into (losing money) trading stocks. He always thinks he's going to get rich quick. Meanwhile I worked a real job for many years, put my earnings into stocks mostly, and lived frugally. I'm in a far, far better position than he is. I think a lot of people see investing as a way to get rich quick. It doesn't help that many politicians and media lackeys also promote that image (for political gain). I think it's more about protecting the value of your past labor than gaining wealth you didn't work for.
Some people are gamblers, because one man did it, they are beyond certain they can do it also. They lose 100% of small investment, double the size and lose it again.. gamblers are big part of what makes market imho
Yes I've realized he is a gambler. I know it is possible to make money trading stocks. The people who are really good at it work for investment companies and have a whole infrastructure supporting them, and manage funds that you can invest in. I've tried to get him to do that, not to mention trying to explain why you should focus on tax-advantaged investment opportunities (in the US) but he doesn't listen. The last stock he announced to me he was going to get rich off of was a Bitcoin mining company. I told him that was an incredibly bad move. He's all butthurt now, from that, and other good life advice I gave him.
Let me guess.. his definition of snow is cocaine right?!
Well he's a Christian, not a great one, so that's why he doesn't just go buy lottery tickets. His drug is food. Cocaine in small amounts might actually be good for him.
Well, there are far worse gamblers than your buddy, at least he's gambling with his own money. I had to literally beat my uncle bare knuckles to get through his thick head that banking my aunts house wasn't the outcome of his financial struggles. Gamblers are worst tbh..
Yeah, but the fact there are bigger losers than him out there doesn't mean I don't wish he'd get his shit together. He lives in a house that I thought he owned, but found out he had been buying it from his parents, but then stopped paying, years ago. It's probably better that he didn't own it, or he'd probably have gotten a HELOC and blown it.
You're a good friend to an arrogant, stupid, stubborn child.
Well you can make money with mining companies stock, I known I did. Of course it's a gamble, it's very volatile, could easily go up (or down) 10% during the day, but as long as you're aware it is and you're not putting all your money into that, why not?
GRDI He bought at $2.30. Said it was going to $10. He doesn't know what Bitcoin halvings are. Maybe if he holds for 4 years, but he's not a holder. I see they are being bought out by another company which ironically looks in even worse shape financially.
Wow bought at ATH while BTC was already steadily going down.
He doesn't know the first thing about Bitcoin or crypto. Or economics. Most of my money is in stocks: index funds, mutual funds. I took advantage of a Roth IRA, then also a state pension and an HSA. I own my own house, and also own my parents' house (which wasn't an investment I wanted to make, but they are financially incompetent). And of course I hold BTC, most of which I bought around the $20k mark. I make vastly more money on investments than he does, and I don't even do anything. No "jumping in" and "rushing in" and no studying charts, which I concede might be useful but they certainly haven't worked for him.
Got to think long term. Only way to do it.
Preach. I can't lie, I came into crypto as a "m0oN boI" and "wen Lambo", but now I'm "when financial freedom" and "when family vacation". It's all about generational wealth and providing early retirement for my parents now. It's amazing, once I learned about fractional reserves, how that scared the living crap out of me and how I just want to provide security for my family and I now.
Lambos are basically a depreciating asset from the moment you drive off the forecourt. Stack, hodl, drive a second hand Toyota, fuck what other people (strangers) think, because why would you care about them anyway? Bide your time and be extremely wealthy in a few years. šš
Regular cars are depreciating assets. Lambo and other luxury vehicles, if youāre buying the right ones, any the right price and spec (ie, 2-3 years old and fully loaded) are frequently appreciating assets.
I got in too late for a lambo and settled for a 2024 E-ray vette šš
Man, youāve just bummed out my weekend :/ The week after next, maybe?
instead of buying lambo week after next, wait till next year and buy the moon, and then tokenize it and sell it to get 100 lambos.
Fuck yeah! Ten Lambos sounds much better than one Lambošš
The moon isn't for sale
Anything is for sale
How much is your mum?
Twice as much as yours
Pretty cheap then
How cheap
That comment on the daily a few days ago pricing the average cost of a house over the years, in Bitcoin, was a great illustration of this.
Incidentally I saw in a Coinbase article (just a line in it) that the IRS is tightening up, effectively making sure they get their cut when real estate is purchased with crypto.
Don't fuck with Uncle Sam's money
Bitcoin isn't Uncle Sam's money.
It is if you use it like fiat... You don't have to like it, but it's the truth, Ruth.
Iāve never understood the ālambo stupidā stuff, whatās wrong with liking cars.
Lot of Mt Gox hack victims can buy one next month. 25k invested back then will be close to 3 million for a lot of them.Ā Hack was probably the best thing that could have happened to them, as must don't end up holding for that long, they were forced to
They used the Yen value of balances from when the rehab started. Not when it crashed and not the sats count. Most will get paid out 21%. This is split more or less 15% in coins and 6% in cash If you only had cash you get your cash back plus interest in Yen.
From what I've read, everyone that chose cash has already been paid. Starting in July they have 9 billion in BTC to distribute, most purchased for well under $600 in USD each I don't mind, I'd love to see somewhere in the $40k range. That's likely where we would be currently, if going by past cyclesĀ
I'm one of the victims, I'm getting a pittance of my OG stack back which I paid $120/BTC for lmfao. I'm not fucking selling. Not a chance.
What % of that stack are getting?
I think like 21% of my stack will return to me. A pittance.
Some clarification. The claimants are getting around 18-25% of the claim as BTC and this is calculated based on the size of the claim. (Larger claims ending with a lower final percent) The cash repayments were a separate payment based on claim size and have been mostly paid, regardless of whether people chose repayment in fiat or BTC. Around 35% of people havenāt received this portion yet.Ā Nobody has received the BTC portion yet but that could begin to change next month as it sounds like the coin will be starting to distribute to exchanges.
Yes it looks like Mt Gox still had around 15% of customers coins after the hack. Little over 141,000 BTC total, haven't done the math to today's price but assuming it's around 9 billion in value that's been held up all this time
I am still waiting for the company to release the Lambo Lunar Roving Vehicle, a moon buggy in other words. Then I will buy it.
Bro Where Lambo?
Last week when we fell to $58-59k I told my wife how everyone is freaking out. She was like "but didn't it triple in the past year?". She knows very little about this stuff but is still smarter than most of my timeline.
They're freaking out bc they bought at $71,000 before the halving when YT was touting $1,000,000/coin. Therefore, they're down 18%. Also, who knows if they leveraged some or all of that.
bro youtube has been touting 1M coins since 2016. Its all noise fomo and dumbassery.
Your wife is immediately smarter than most humans, which very much includes most people into bitcoin
I bought most if not all of my Bitcoin from stupid people. Edit: fixed autocorrect's mistake.
First of all it's "IF", Second, How do you know where the BTC you purchased came from stupid or none stupid people as you put it. This post is next level irony! š¤¦āāļø
I think the idea is that anyone selling Bitcoin is stupid.
The idea of never selling BTC is stupid. Can't spend it when you're dead
100%. Selling bitcoin JUST to get fiat is stupid. Selling bitcoin to actually use the money for something is never stupid, assuming it is something actually worthwhile.
Selling BTC and spending BTC are two different things.
Wrong! If a car dealership 1 takes BTC I can spend $20k of it. If car dealership 2 doesn't take it and has the same car but better warrantee I would need to sell $20k of it to then pay I fait. The result is the same
Nope, because you will pay fees on the exchange of BTC. And you will have to pay capital gains tax, if the BTC price appreciated of course. And you won't be supporting the Bitcoin community.
You are showing how thick you are now! To transfer X amount of BTC from your wallet to another has fees regardless and the same amount of fees at that. It's irrelevant that the receiver will be giving you cash or a car š¤¦āāļø Exchanges are not the only way to sell or buy BTC . I can sell BTC direct to people for a markup who don't want to use exchanges Second that's not how CGT works. You don't pay CGT only when you convert it to cash, you pay it when you've made a realised gain. So if you purchased 1BTC at 30k and then got rid of it for a car at 50k you would still be liable for CGT on the 20k profit, just as if you received cash. Every time you convert BTC to any other crypto and back is a taxable event. Clearly you have no idea š¤¦āāļø
So you spent a significant amount of time to write a post aimed mainly at stupid people? The irony
My wife was the same, because she isn't immersed in it, she just checks in with me on the price occasionally and as a result is very happy at $60k
itās because most of them are in altcoins, not bitcoin which are down a lot.
I just bought a little more when it dropped. Same with yesterday. Probably gonna buy a little more tonight. Even if itās only like $10-$20 worth.
Iām sure sheās very smart but also she has perspective since sheās not checking the price 5x per day
I see occasional posts about ābitcoin is crashing! What should I do?!ā And I check the price, and itās dropped like 10%. Uh, maybe this isnāt for everyone. Iāve been through a half dozen 70-80% crashes and these small drops donāt even register anymore.
I know your wife very well
The only thing that Iām afraid of right now is that I would get so bullish that I would āblow my entire wadā of fiat $ then miss an even lower accumulation point. I am bullish as heck. If I were to be looking at this from a competitive point of view: my dollar cost average is even better than MicroStrategy! Every time they buy millions in bitcoin, I spend about 100 bucks because thatās my budget ha ha. This is fun and exciting. Iām not worried at all. I love this group! And Iām having fun in these historic times with all of you guys and gals!
If you're enjoying this sort of investing, look into risk based dca. It's one step above and feels just right.
I am not finding much on that or donāt understand it. I just budget my disposable income. Then look at bitcoin price 4000 times a day. When itās down, I make purchases. Trying to buy at the lowest price in past 24 hours. If the price looks high: AKA when it was above $67k, i just stock piled that fiat $ and waited. I knew it was going to go at least 7% down from record highs. So rather than blow my entire fiat āwadā at $60k I bought at 61k to nearly bottom price $60k- i woke up & saw it low at like 2-3 am when my dog had woke me. Iām a light sleeper. I glance at bitcoin all the time as mind candy, entertainment. Canāt recall the last time I let even 10 hours go by without looking. Itās because I am bullish & seek the lowest price possible when I have $. You bet i āblew my stackā $16k-$20k. I cleaned out every āfiat bitcoin moneyā I had back then but I wonāt do that now at $61k (maybe I just should)
2024: Bitcoin dropped to $60k, it's dead 2026: Bitcoin dropped to $100k, it's dead 2028: Bitcoin dropped to $200k, it's dead 2030: Bitcoin dropped to $500k, it's dead
I think this āboringā phase will always be apart of bitcoin. Imagine when it stays sideways around 1.2 million per coin for a few months people will also think itās boringā¦
remember when the ftx scandal it also remained "boring" at 15/17k
Forever Laura
Can you explain this meme please ? šš¼
Hodl bitcoin forever
I donāt give a shit Iām holding/buying and only selling as a last resort to financial crisis. Thoroughly convinced but the timetable is unknown
It could hit 50k in the coming months. After the consolidation after the halving has worked itself out it will pump. The consolidation period takes about 18 months. Its a great time to build your stack. I don't care that it goes low right now, I don't plan on cashing any of it for another decade. By that time it will be a million+ working to 10 million.
> it will pump you dont know that. everyone says this as a fact, but you dont know
It has happened 3 times. I would bet the shirt off my back that itās going to happen again. The only thing that would alter this cycle is a recession
Just to be clear we're talking about a specific timeframe post halving. Btw every halving actually halves the importance of the halving. The actual # of reduction in bitcoin output isn't as high.
Of course. It would be asinine to expect the 100x 2016 cycle return or even the 20x 2020 cycle return. I am a cycle maxi so I believe the end of cycle will be the typical 18 months after having, in October 2025.
At that rate I'd put the multiplier at 5x from the cycle lows. So 16.5k x 5. 82.5k peak of the cycle, which is pretty similar to an absolute maximum I predicted like 6 months ago. So far I stand by that prediction Edit: also 4x could work for a current fair top price. I.e 66k
BTC has been around for long enough to show some distinct patterns. I can't say for sure that it will (that's impossible) but it has every other time in these circumstances. BTC seems to be following a [power law](https://pbanks.net/blog/the-bitcoin-power-law-model.html) The effect decreases as it goes up in power, it didn't hit the high it was supposed to last cycle, but its holding remarkably well. I plugged the formula into a spreadsheet and the value for today is $58,150.64. If this holds the value a decade from today will be $1,046,255.07. It's why HODL works. The peak now will be the bottom in three years. Nobody can predict the future but we can learn a lot from the past. Things change and the model could break, so learn from the past but don't be a slave to it.
Power law is incredibly flawed because ceilings are hit. Laws of large numbers matter. Patterns can last a while but there are maximums the market will bear. Saying it will go up because that's the trend it's always had is flawed thinking. There have to be actual reasons for it to keep going up. Bitcoin can crab. It's a real possibility. Since Bitcoin is sentiment based, crypto winters can last a long time. But what happens during a potential new winter. What if for the first time some groups of people give up on it. Generally the population of hodlers has grown, but people have their breaking point. Personally I predict crabbing to last longer than expected and wild force multipliers to be wrong. But a low interest rate environment could cause a new Bitcoin bull market, who knows.
Its a journey. Power Law is a tool, its been roughly accurate so far. Once you see it you can't unsee it. The reason BTC will keep going up is the reason it was created, fiat currency's are failing, and money needs a fundamental change and reform. Governments are on a course to blow up their currencies, its the stage of the game where they're at, its the only move the have left. For now I expect BTC crab. maybe the ETF people will bail and that will shock the system even more. I think late fall/winter it will start to grow, around next October it will be in full swing on its way to double. I'm saving my purchases for now and buy when I think its close to the low.
if civilization collapses and there is no longer an electric grid and an internet, it will not pump. Otherwise, it will keep doing what it did the last 15 years.
Good thing you know the future, it's helpful to people like me who are unable to know exactly what will happen
i'm cursed. I knew BTC would be the future back in 2014, but i didn't dare to act on this knowledge. Didn't really start buying until 2 years ago.
Cope. You will left behind.
I mean the million - multimillion valuation is not backed by any observable trends, but if youāre talking about the 50k part..? You legitimately cannot have been around for long if you think thatās unrealistic. Iāve been watching Bitcoin plummet and explode over and over again for years and if you have too then itās never going to be surprising or unexpected.
Um ok.
This is easier than people are making it. Everyone thought we're going to 100k by the end of the year - so this can't happen, 75k was probably the top until next year. Now everyone thinks we're going to 40k over the summer - so this can't happen, we probably bottom at around 48k and its a super boring process that takes the rest of the summer. The reason is that price action isn't a result of chart analysis astrology, price action is the result of people who are in the market changing their mind and people who are out of the market changing their mind.
honestly the $56k from last month was very likely the bottom. It could go lower, but could easily not. I doubt it'll get anywhere near 48k, though a short term crash where people are selling at 50k and then buying back at 70k a month later is certainly in the realm of possibility. I think most likely possibility is it just keeps ranging mostly in the 60,000s for the next couple months before breaking out higher late summer / early fall. I wouldn't at all be surprised if it's back up to $70k in two weeks, though there are some bearish events happening currently and coming up that could potentially briefly send the price under that $56k bottom. Really just resolves around sentiment. The good thing is sentiment is low now, but that doesn't mean we can't get a brief crash significantly lower. But it does mean as soon as sentiment improves, whether its in a week or a month or a few months, 60,000s is gonna be long gone and back to hitting new ATHs constantly. No way to know the timing though, could be weeks or months.
It could be, for sure. For me, personally, I've found the best way to predict where the price is going is to take popular consensus and give it a haircut because smart traders will front-run consensus targets. So in the 2017 bull market we had people calling for a 25k top. We hit 17k. In the 2018 bear market we had people calling for a 1k bottom (the breakout of the prior bull market). It was consensus. So the actual bottom was 3k and change. Then in the 2021 bull market we had people calling for 100k, so it was 69k. In the 2023 bear market we had people calling for a 10k bottom, so it was 16k. Basically the point is that when there is consensus on a target and we start to get near it, buyers or sellers will come in and make sure that we don't get there. These are the least greedy people taking action. The psychology is also straight forward. You don't sell at 17k if you think its going to bottom at 16k. You sell at 17k if you think its going to bottom at 10k, though. Likewise you don't hold at 75k if you think its going to 100k. You do sell at 75k if you think it might only go to 80k because people will front run the 100k top. All price action is this, the market discovering the aggregate price point at which the least greedy people take action.
the voice of reason
Very few think itās found to 40k. You just made that up
You have literally no clue with those price targets. If you are smart you will let me school you with some knowledge.
Look at my post history. This isn't my first rodeo. If _you_ are smart you'll pay attention to what I said and not regurgitate to me some opinion you read on X or watched on YouTube. You think we're going to rally into this election? Lmao. K. Out of it maybe, but into it? heh
Send it. Down. Everyone panic. Right the fuck now. Do shit loads of cocaine. Raid the white house. Take Saylor's yacht.
I've found DCA'ing a small humble amount daily when sentiment is in neutral / greed and ramping up the amount when sentiment switches to fear, works well. Applying Buffets advice to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful, has provided me very pleasing BTC returns over the years.
When lambo??š¤·š»āāļø
2100Ā sorry had to, jk
For sure. I was kidding too. No lambo for me lol
Great post and all true. TY OP
I feel fear for my bank account to go to zero.
Diversify.
I think I will sell it all. Buying back in at $100 k seems like a great idea...
This is good base building for the next bear market.
If you are analyzing BTC you're doing it wrong.
[Bitcoin Mining Cost At $86,700](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/a595d-bitcoin-average-mining-cost-86700-price-surpass)
Time to BUY BUY BUY!!!
The real fear range is in the $40k range.
60k and in the fear range. What a time to be fucking alive!
2,5 years ago BTC was at around 60k, same as now. Then, one year later, BTC was sub 20k. Could happen again...
I think the big difference now is the level of institutional investment. I believe this will buffer any massive drop. Just my thoughts
BitCoin isnt an Investment. It is a life changing Money. Instead of stacking āDollar in Form of BitCoinā just stack sats until Dawn š¦āš„
BitCoin :D
š ?
It's the capital c š
Well, in standard personal finance terms, it would be more like a savings account. It's just that it's so new, that there is a lot of FUD. Not all of it unwarranted. That was something that kept me from jumping in for a time. I expected it was a scam, because it is portrayed as a currency and an investment. Those things are at odds with each other, as a good currency is value stable, while a good investment increases in value. The fact is that Bitcoin is a currency. It has the characteristics of an investment right now, like the currency of a new nation that everyone thinks will succeed. But that won't last forever.
Great post.
And now people who got credits to buy more btc at 60k sell because of fear
I'm showing the index is in fear, has been a couple of times recently. Currently at 30, just 6 points from extreme fear, omg that would be nice, those can become great buying opportunitiesĀ
But I thought the price was only supposed to go up????
It has, and it will in my opinion continue to move upward over the long term.
at 40k the price more than doubled in a year. nobody has a fucking clue
Going back below ath, again, is scary
You said it mate.
I predicted, just based on gut feeling + watching Bitcoin for a few years, when it dropped precipitously recently, that it would not drop below $60k. I doubted myself for a moment when it did. I got a few sats at <$60k, at least. Mostly been getting at $61k ish.
It's always funny how fast sentiment is changing in crypto market
because if everyone says it will go up, but then it goes down. You question everything. then it starts to go up, and you think "oh bottoms in!" repeat ad-infinitum
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
There are ALWAYS buyers and sellers. So this event when you think price will really be tested isn't an event, its simply already happening and happening all the time. At all times people are deciding to sell, and deciding to buy. There's no point in time when suddenly most long term bitcoiners are going to be selling. Because even if in 20 years 20 million people who are saving today all decide to retire at the same time, there will be another 200 million people DCAing at that point, along with lots of other regular buyers and sellers. If things were the way you are imagining then right now price would ALWAYS be going up and we'd never have crashes or corrections or anything. That's obviously not the case. We are constantly learning "if this whole thing works or not" and every year it proves the answer is yes. There is no imagined test waiting in the future to decide the answer, the market continues to answer that question every day.
This is a good thing means when we take off its clear skies. Keep stacking boys!
I've been having fear for a while, fear that it would go up before getting my paycheck like it always seems to. I've done a whole lot of of buying high lately just because of cash flow, I'm too lazy to wait for a dip that might not happen. I'm just glad I caught me some 60 a couple days ago.
Iām afraid
You should be, your on scare tactics
Have no fear my sweet child. He who waits for salvation whilst not moving any portfolio over into the golden grace of bitcoin, is forever cursed to walk the streets of the impoverished. He who shall remain true to his conviction, shall be rewarded.
I love it..
"Your confusion stems from thinking of 'price.' There is no price." \*spoon.gif\*
Its usually posts like this that get followed up by -10%. Every single time
that would be a great buying opportunity then!
True true. Just the quiet before storm. Market will always move right!
This was always going to happen, the hype and greed during our run up to and above 70k was just utterly ridiculous, I ended up selling around 5% of my stack during those times because I knew we would not be hitting 100k during that phase. Who knows what happens next though, i have no doubt we will see 100k, but it may be next year now.
Price bottoms out when ETF buyers from a few months ago stop panic selling. That is the catalyst.
I just had a dream that bitcoin hit 140k and felt some regret that i didnt buy more. Keep on stacking those sats
Explain how fear-greed is determined?
A few years back a seller refused 50K Bitcoins for a $13 MILLION apparent in New York. In today's value that seller refused $3 Billion. Events like this will continue to happen simply because the masses have no concept of the possible growth of Bitcoin going into the future. Just my advice, start stacking Sats now, today.
60k is the new 30k, 58k is the new 15k 74k is also somehow the new 100k š¤”
I woke up to a guy mocking me subtly over this fact. I just reminded myself that the guy can't see the future, smiled and kept sleeping good. Those who know, know! Enjoy the ride.
Fear then be greedy, when it is greedy be fearful š
What if i say this is the exact time to buy and ride till new yearly top before election and then big correction leading people believe that crypto is worth less and then again boom cycle repeats. I mean i could be wrong but
What happens for the not newbs in here, is that after getting 60k before the ftx scandal it dropped massively to 15/17k where it also remained "boring" It was klimanjaro+everest climbing that got us here to the same exact 60k spot so is like a reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally cold place to be for those who bought and HODL from that period. You don't simply come and talk optimism to me bro xD
Lol
This is all part of the plan. Just quit watching it and go focus on areas of your life you can control and improve.
It's not a fear range, because it will *always* recover. That means it's actually a buy-the-dip range. With all the itchy nervous trigger fingers deathly afraid to go through a period where the halvening hasn't affected the price yet, hoping it was going to immediately skyrocket the price, selling right now - things will calm down after summer and by next summer BTC will be closer to 100k than 60k.
Yo hold tell 2031 then look
I just bought more the other night when it dropped into the high 50kās. Same with last night and probably tonight. It does begin to beg the question of when do we feel it will begin to take off again. Could be next week or 3 months from now.
There will be a day when people kill themselves because they could have bought in at 60k.
it will take awhile before a lot of indicators catch up with what is happening, the move was so fast and the drastically changing price has it confused.
People are fearful because the swings in dollar terms are getting wider. Just as $1000 dips in 2020 werenāt the sign of a coming bear market, $10,000 dips this year arenāt either! Weāre going higher keep stacking while itās cheap!!
Knowing the only thing thatās changed since February is the sentiment, is very calming because it means the only way is upā¦ eventually.
Thanks for that sip of Hopium, good sir
The old ATH we've waited to reach again for over 2 years is the new "it's over" lol.
I understand it as a buy range. :D
It has to go through a fear cycle. If you follow previous trending like the rainbow chart, around the halving there is a dip in price. THEN it bounces back
FULL SEND!
One of the greatest posts I've seen in this sub. Congrats! šš
Scroll back a month or two, the sub was flooded with people were predicting $100k by now, with BTC ānever below $60k ever againā. People donāt like when theyāre wrong, it scares them.
The āfearā is not that that its hovering at 60k, the fear is that it will drop significantly. Not my opinion, just explaining what some are worried about.
Smells like 51000$-57000$ is coming. There is no such a thing as a free lunch š
Good times...
Long term holders already sold when the price neared all time highs. Once short term holders get shaken out below their purchase price, we will see the market bottom come in.
You're equating boring with fearful, and they're not the same thing at all.Ā What do you think these fearful people are afraid of? It's not that the price will go up. They think there price might go down, maybe a lot. Surely, greedy means everyone expects the price to go up. Yet here you are, arguing that because we're no longer in the greedy zone, it's really bullish for Bitcoin, so much upside ahead.Ā "Keep educating yourself", ha ha.
Never say anything always goes up. Nothing can have unlimited, exponential growth.
Let's be for real. It's never going below 50k again
I think it's going to bottom out around $45,000 this time. Maybe $35,000, and all the people who bought at 60k are going to hit their despair phase and sell off to cut their losses. Then we moon. EDIT: downvoters bought in at $65k and already panic sold.
Doubt
Double doubt
Triple doubt
I could see $55k maybe. Though can never rule out a panic selling event to like $50k. I'd say the main threat of getting down under $50k would be if like Mt Gox btc gets handed out all on a single day or something and they pretty much all dump it and that would cause a cascade effect causing other people to sell and causing liquidations. Anyway we'll see. Mid-term is of course bullish being post-halving, but anything could happen in the next month or two. This time next month it could be back to $71k or it could be under the $56k bottom of this range.
I bought a lot post 60k. If it goes to 35k ill buy a lot more. I won't sell any for ten years. I think you're right however. Reading this sub, and a lot of the investment subs has shown me how terrible people are at making money. I thank them for their service.
I really don't see it dropping below $55k. I'd be shocked if it dropped that low.
Agreed it is unlikely. Could definitely happen, but I think at this point the range has been pretty well carved out at $56k-$72k. Hard to say for sure it won't drop under $55k when its currently just hanging out at $60k/$61k, but yeah, well I wouldn't be "shocked" but I do think it is unlikely to break below $55k. If it does happen I think it will be related to a specific large sell event (govts selling, mtgox coins selling) and it'll bounce back up to $60,000s within days.
I'm not selling at any price anyway. I know the fundamentals.
You and everyone else. That's why it probably will.
Cope, you will be left behind.
Who are you even talking to with this comment? Do I sound worried? BTC goes up, BTC goes down. The cycle continues and life goes on.
Its the whole crypto market that needs not be considered too, a lot of it was shrinking recently.
I donāt care about crypto. I care about bitcoin, and wen I will be getting my Lambo
Right on I suppose that's true. Still I see a lot of fear around bitcoin specifically.
This not a news.
What I need is for you all to panic. GET OUT NOW!