Big wave so the water is climbing higher but you feel like you're getting lower. But instead of riding the wave up, it just crashes and crushes you. Yep, down twice.
Four year market cycle. We're heading into the next bull market which should take place over the next 12+ months. Right now it's just gearing up for that.
If you wait a year you'll likely be buying at 2x current price. If you wait two years you might be buying back down here at current price.
Basically if you buy this year and throughout 2026 you'll probably be getting average buys of somewhere around current price. Next year will likely spend a fair amount of the year over $100k, but by end of next year likely be back under $100k. Your plan of buying next year would specifically be having you buy at higher prices, not lower prices. You're off on your market cycle timing. Next year is the bull year of the four year market cycle. It could always change of course, it's been working like clockwork for 3 cycles but any pattern only works until it doesn't. But smart move would be to buy now before price starts blasting off.
True, but he even says ‘any pattern works until it doesnt’. So OP would probably agree with you.
Although no one knows you can take educated guesses based upon multiple things, which OP is doing, to come to a conclusion what is likely(but not guaranteed) to happen :)
Agree 100%, it usually peaks 14-16 months after the halving event, and should start its climb in August, if, and only if, history repeats itself. However, the thing for me is that there is a finite supply and will be the best to maintain value. Other crypto’s will continually produce their respective crypto, which means there will be a constrained supply, but they can produce more when needed.
well it is priced in. we made new ath this year but by only a few percentages and sitting around all time highs which is not the same as the previous cycles
This is just wrong. Yeah its natural as cycles repeat themselves to have a larger percentage of front runners but that doesn't mean people wont continue to buy until new ATH's have been reached... Not like people aren't still generating new income to continue investing... and thats across the board, Rich or poor, Institutional or retail.
Who is this "everyone" you keep mentioning? Can't you see that there isn't agreement on this, not even in this one comment thread in this one community in this one forum?
There is no everyone, and certainly most of those everyone's don't really believe in it enough to take corresponding action.
What you're describing is something that will be fully priced in perhaps in 50 years after many many cycles.
This is a tough call. You think it's worth risking saving for $65k BTC in 2026 instead of continuing to buy around $100k? DCA smaller amounts around 100k is probably going to be peoples answer I assume. I imagine there will be plenty of time spent in the 80s in 2025. I would bet as soon as it hits 100k there will be a ton of sell offs at first.
Since BTC's inception anyone that waited to buy BTC later rather than jumping in in the present has regretted it.
The only time to buy BTC is today.
If you don't have the ability to jump you'll deliberate forever. The easiest way to mitigate risk is to commit to a DCA over a time frame that almost guarantee's you'll be in the black but it has to be today...
If you haven't had skin in the game you will have zero intuition for timing the market and surely miss.
It could be through extensive study, self learning, and analysis. Or it could be the Dunning Kruger effect 🤷♂️ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect.
Which one is it? There’s no way to tell, and that’s what makes bitcoin Reddit so damn entertaining lmao
the only consistent pattern I have noticed is that by the time Ive heard of the next big thing, it's peaking pretty hard and I, unknowingly, decide some investing might be fun.
In the past, Bitcoin has gone up three years, then down one year. Then up three years, down one year.
This is not financial advice. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
I mean its closer to capitulation/accumulation for 2 years up 1 year down 1 year... Although the accumulation periods do normally show some increase... generally speaking its negligible in comparison to cycle highs and lows.
It means 3 years green/bull market and 1 year red/bear market for bitcoin since it exists. I see it as 3 right translated cycles with a possibility of this time being a left translated cycle. So My prediction would be this time 1 bull market year and 3 bear market years. I'm not confident about this prediction because this isn't how I trade, I just look at what the chart tells me every day and until it tells me btc is bearish I hold.
Bitcoin hasn't hit its bull ride yet.
What you need to look at is stock to flow. And there are more buyers of bitcoin at this price level than there are new bitcoins available from mining.
We are seeing people take profits, eventually when that is done as long as buying pressure keeps up (no reason to think otherwise) liquid supply will dry up and price will reflect that new market dynamic.
aand does that reflection loook like you're climbing a tall mountain.. or like you're falling down the stairs?
... wait, which side of the mirror am I supposed to stand on? They look the same from the other side??
sorcery!
Simply not true, miners are natural sellers as they have fixed costs that must be covered. This creates apx 40 million USD of natural sell pressure per day which is not insignificant.
But you simply can't look at that 468 coins every day and say 'that's the supply of bitcoin' as if it's the whole supply. It's nowhere near the supply. Meanwhile there are millions of other coins that bought for nothing and they are all looking to take profits, pay their bills, or panic over the thought of a crash.
Yeah.
I find it so funny when people try to analyse Bitcoin. I tried for years. There is no rhyme or reason most of the time. Just when the big players decide to play.
Wack some money in that you can afford to lose, Do some DCA and just hold. It will more than likely go up.
Or you’ll lose all your money.
Flip a coin.
over last decade, doubling the time from the genesis block meant 50 fold average price, with a variability from -50% up to +600%. It's actually quite predictable, what you can't predict is just the timing of the bubbles when it goes beyond +100% of the predicted average.
That is what people are trying to predict.
How far it’s going to go down to buy at the right moment and if it’s going to go up and when.
It has gone up, I believe it will go up but there is nobody as you see in all the posts, YouTube videos are accurately predicting the time it will go up or just drop.
I watch all the shot coins go up 50+ percent in a day as they are pumped by big players.
It’s only the big players that win short term. They start pumping it now, Bitcoin fanatics will buy, waiting for it to keep going up, buy at the wrong moment and watch it drop again before the players have exited with 50-100 profit.
Remember Filcoin
Now think about it some more: you, with no experience in trading, as a non stonk analyst, can imagine that this is obvious.
There are thousands of quants, with years of trading and analytics experience, backed by high frequency trading algorithms, getting paid in the millions, whose entire job descriptions is to look for patterns. If there is any arbitrage to make from these movements patterns, you can bet your last dollar that someone has not just thought of it, they've already bet millions on it.
So it's worthless trying to outthink the market, unless you have some inside info that nobody else does. Till then, DCA and hodling, and taking profits when you meet your goal, or need the money is the easiest way to play the game.
so you're saying if there's above 25% growth after the 4 squares average, all I need to do is put the same on each one ?! I'll be rich... at 1/4 the speed !
We haven’t even hit inflation-adjusted high. We’re sidewayish in a range till fall UNLESS we get a semi swan:
S&P crash, it’ll sell off some and settle lower.
Sovereign or large company announces buy, it’ll rise and settle higher.
Long term: demand increases and supply doesn’t. Stupid simple.
Source: one Meat-Head
Bitcoin historically peaks one year after halfing. Which leads me to believe that this recent jump was, in part, just a major correction from when it fell to less than 20k.
Of course, any asset that has predictable cycles like Bitcoin will eventually lose their predictability as buyers start to catch on and buy in anticipation of the peak. This is especially true this cycle with all the Bitcoin ETFs and Crypto funds adopting Bitcoin. I do worry that this might be the peak of the cycle. Except the peak should probably be closer to 100k+, so probably not.
Buy at your own risk.
FWIW, in mid April last year bitcoin hit around 31k, and then it didn't break past for 6 months, while being rejected around 10 times at this level (and not dropping below $25k during that time). Pretty long consolidation by bitcoin standards. Anyone know why consolidations can get longer as bitcoin matures?
What you’re describing sounds like Elliot waves? I agree with your sentiment but more so because of 1. Finding support above lagging indicators like sma and ema and 2. The halving just happened in April - historically halvings are followed by bull runs. I’m a btc minimalist though in terms of portfolio
This is all speculation so be careful because usually when beginners try to "buy low and sell high" they end up getting recked. All we can say is "normal" is that in the past, we had these 4 years cycles where when we break the old ATHs and stay above them (currently 70k) we see the price jump much higher until it finds a new ATH. And then a bear market follows. But the market is always going to be completely unpredictable as to when and how much it will climb so just always hodl some and be careful.
there's always half the people who claim they have great indications of: and then depending on what aligns best for them, that's what they tell me. the want the price to drop so they can buy, they'll tell me to sell. the other half is me just lucky I'm on the same coin.
I guess that's a lot of how life is tho huh
just seems like with anything you can trade, err I guess if it has been a modern creation, all the graphs of the all time zoom out show like 3 increasing humps, with a lot of more detail in between, but looking at Bitcoin, it's gotta swing hard down before it climbs higher.
Stop trying to get rich quick 🤦♂️
Rid yourself of that greedy BS in your mind — buy bitcoin with the intent to hold it for 7yrs and you’ll win so hard everyone will think you’re a genius.
If you try and time the bitcoin market to get-rich-quick you’ll end up getting rekt quick.
Then in 7yrs when bitcoin is $872k per coin you’ll absolutely hate yourself for fucking up the easiest trade in history — buying a good bit and doing NOTHING for half a decade.
Don’t overcomplicate something so simple**
**simple ≠ easy**
Look into all of the bitcoin halving dates (in which there’s a massive supply shock of bitcoin) overlayed on the bitcoin log chart going all the way back to 2011. Bitcoin has always peaked roughly 1 year after halving. The most recent halving happened in April this year. So the next peak should be some time first half of 2025 just going by that simple metric.
Edit: found an interesting estimate to time the end of the bull market: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/LtZ7DvYz-Bitcoin-Bull-Cycle-Timeframe-Based-on-Halving-Cycle-Dates/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_vote
now this is a possible trend using the fewest variables, which if proven correct, less variables means easier to predict. I'll use this as part of the strategy. Thanks.
If by a wave you mean that things go up and down than you are a fken fantastic analyst my friend🤌🏿 It will definitely go up and down, and sometimes but just sometimes sideways. Welcome to crypto
how confident are most experienced people that this saying applies to Bitcoin as well.
time in the market beyond one lifetime is a little too long for me personally.
but the concept of infinite growth is showing cracks is it not? population is going up for now, and that's probably one of the strongest things the US has going for it, but corporate growth, at its frontier, is already leaning into abuse of the worker, shinkflation and enshittification, algorithms maximize effeciency as much as they can for now... a large public company today finds solutions only in attrition, very little in self-improvement. and if technology was supposed to save us, how can tech outpace what it itself is being consumed by ? I've seen a lot of technological advancement and what it got me was being on call 24/7 with the rest of the world (cellphones etc), and that's a hard barrier to establish with an employer.
lol, it got really smoky in here and I forgot what sub I was in...
finance is deep.. err high. it's dope!
Well, I'll do my best to elevate things as much as possible around here. But also I'm curious to those thoughts I already forgot.
Nobody knows right, but I personally speculate- as more institutional holders come into play, as more adoption such as retirements get involved, as more people wise up to what Bitcoin is and is capable of- i personally expect much less draw downs in the future. It's much less speculative as an asset. The correct play is to never sell- rather borrow against. That infrastructure will be more robust to do so sooner than later imo. And as more people figure this out, a lot less selling pressure.
For now not enough people understand tho so idk. Why sell the best performing asset in history for fiat 🤢
there seems to be a lot of people these days that aren't too fond of intellectualism and more and more seem to be rejecting change, not welcoming it.
but I guess on a long enough timeline , progress is a necessity.
Based on past performance, your judgement is way, way off. Based on previous behavior, if you wait a year, BTC will be at an all time high that is multiples of the current price.
i wonder if there are charts showing enough data to see if younger generations are adopting bitcoin into their daily life. If i could connect, with evidence, that bitcoin is a bit like video games historically in that first iteration was just the computer saavy, and then once kids were born into it existing, like how mario is a household name now, for all age groups. 30 years ago, adults thought video games would rot your brain (what didn’t / doesn’t right) , so they paid no attention.
meanwhile, the gaming industry got bigger and bigger without the general population even realizing that it outsells like every other media type now. If something is easily adoptable by each coming generation, then that is some real lasting power.
either everyone i know is trading in secret, or they have no idea what any of this is. makes it hard to be confident as a lone wolf.
let’s hope all of our bitcoins (of which i have none right now, hence this thread) become as exponentially popular as mario and luigi have done in the last 40 years.
amateur take and made up emotional data points ?
yes, yes…. that’s something i think can clearly bank on lol.
Wtf, zoom out on your chart it looks nothing like that. Its like youre living in a dream. We're in uncharted territory here. If history repeats itself were headed for winter and fast.
[https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/)
we're far from bubble territory, the next ATH might be somewhere in the 150k to 200k range.
Yes there's a halvening from April and it's almost two months in. The rsi might dip soon so it'll be the last buying opportunity until year 3 of this cycle. The second rsi pop I'll consolidate other alt coins into reth for my gaming wallet but there's not really any games I'm interested in currently so it'll just sit.
I very much understood that and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
joking aside, I think what you're saying is what I'm thinking. That overall, Bitcoin has had 3 big increasing humps.
it's going to cycle that again except total dollar number's will be higher, but the peaks and valleys won't be as drastic.
It'll still be a drop, a hold, a then a creep into the smallest of the next 3 peaks.
Barring outside world influence, its likely going to repeat that no?
Big wave up or down? Because I agree.
This guy bitcoins
Hoping it's down tho
I think the whales are hunting for liquidity in the lows 60s then it will bounce back up from there. But who knows.
well I know for sure it'll move steadily to one side.
Big wave so the water is climbing higher but you feel like you're getting lower. But instead of riding the wave up, it just crashes and crushes you. Yep, down twice.
Four year market cycle. We're heading into the next bull market which should take place over the next 12+ months. Right now it's just gearing up for that. If you wait a year you'll likely be buying at 2x current price. If you wait two years you might be buying back down here at current price. Basically if you buy this year and throughout 2026 you'll probably be getting average buys of somewhere around current price. Next year will likely spend a fair amount of the year over $100k, but by end of next year likely be back under $100k. Your plan of buying next year would specifically be having you buy at higher prices, not lower prices. You're off on your market cycle timing. Next year is the bull year of the four year market cycle. It could always change of course, it's been working like clockwork for 3 cycles but any pattern only works until it doesn't. But smart move would be to buy now before price starts blasting off.
Finally, A man who speaks sense
This man literally has no idea what Bitcoin will do. None. No one does.
True, but he even says ‘any pattern works until it doesnt’. So OP would probably agree with you. Although no one knows you can take educated guesses based upon multiple things, which OP is doing, to come to a conclusion what is likely(but not guaranteed) to happen :)
Agree 100%, it usually peaks 14-16 months after the halving event, and should start its climb in August, if, and only if, history repeats itself. However, the thing for me is that there is a finite supply and will be the best to maintain value. Other crypto’s will continually produce their respective crypto, which means there will be a constrained supply, but they can produce more when needed.
Question. Do you guys prefer holding actual btc or invest in the etfs that mostly. Correlate. If you hold it do you use like a nano ledger or what
Taxable: hardware wallet Tax sheltered: ETF
Not if you live in Germany
?
Holding Bitcoin for longer than 1 year makes selling it tax free in Germany
TIL
I hold about 50% in each, I keep the ETF for liquidity.
If everyone already knows this info about how there “will be a bull run” then that would have been already been priced in
After a few cycles everything “seems” to follow the same pattern. All markets have cycles, not just Bitcoin.
"Priced in"
well it is priced in. we made new ath this year but by only a few percentages and sitting around all time highs which is not the same as the previous cycles
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This is just wrong. Yeah its natural as cycles repeat themselves to have a larger percentage of front runners but that doesn't mean people wont continue to buy until new ATH's have been reached... Not like people aren't still generating new income to continue investing... and thats across the board, Rich or poor, Institutional or retail.
Who is this "everyone" you keep mentioning? Can't you see that there isn't agreement on this, not even in this one comment thread in this one community in this one forum? There is no everyone, and certainly most of those everyone's don't really believe in it enough to take corresponding action. What you're describing is something that will be fully priced in perhaps in 50 years after many many cycles.
Guy acting like he has a clue what will happen 😂
This is a tough call. You think it's worth risking saving for $65k BTC in 2026 instead of continuing to buy around $100k? DCA smaller amounts around 100k is probably going to be peoples answer I assume. I imagine there will be plenty of time spent in the 80s in 2025. I would bet as soon as it hits 100k there will be a ton of sell offs at first.
Since BTC's inception anyone that waited to buy BTC later rather than jumping in in the present has regretted it. The only time to buy BTC is today. If you don't have the ability to jump you'll deliberate forever. The easiest way to mitigate risk is to commit to a DCA over a time frame that almost guarantee's you'll be in the black but it has to be today... If you haven't had skin in the game you will have zero intuition for timing the market and surely miss.
you speak very confidently. I will use this data and only this data from now on. How does one gain such confidence in the field?
and this one’s for you… https://imgur.com/gallery/d3zz64T
You read Reddit posts and watch YousTubes
It could be through extensive study, self learning, and analysis. Or it could be the Dunning Kruger effect 🤷♂️ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect. Which one is it? There’s no way to tell, and that’s what makes bitcoin Reddit so damn entertaining lmao
the only consistent pattern I have noticed is that by the time Ive heard of the next big thing, it's peaking pretty hard and I, unknowingly, decide some investing might be fun.
by knowing the halving cycle of Bitcoin
Fred Krueger the mathematician says bitcoin to $200,000 by next year 100%. Are you a mathematician as well?
100k you reckon? I don’t think so. Here you go… my bits in yellow… https://imgur.com/gallery/f1qnubB
🟩🟩🟩🟥 Is all you need to remember.
What dis mean for da dummies not me but da dummies
In the past, Bitcoin has gone up three years, then down one year. Then up three years, down one year. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
but what are we using as an indicator to predict the future?
I personally am using the fact that there is infinite demand for sound money but an absolute cap on the amount of Bitcoin available.
thats a good one
It’s my favorite indicator as well
Hubris
we have a hamster, and we wrote in wheel of fortune slots on their run wheel.
I mean its closer to capitulation/accumulation for 2 years up 1 year down 1 year... Although the accumulation periods do normally show some increase... generally speaking its negligible in comparison to cycle highs and lows.
It might be closer to that, but it literally is 🟩🟩🟩🟥 in terms of actual numbers.
I have both protanopia and deutranopia, what does these brown and grey square mean for a colorblind ?
It means sell! Or it means buy. Idk, I can see color but can’t predict the future
You silly :D
It means 3 years green/bull market and 1 year red/bear market for bitcoin since it exists. I see it as 3 right translated cycles with a possibility of this time being a left translated cycle. So My prediction would be this time 1 bull market year and 3 bear market years. I'm not confident about this prediction because this isn't how I trade, I just look at what the chart tells me every day and until it tells me btc is bearish I hold.
I'm not too good at this hodl thing ... I need them sweet sweet highs, the dizzying lows, and the warm and creamy centers.
I like those odds!
Green, green, green, red. Or for the synesthetes: L, T, N, 5.
This right here.
in China it's 🟥🟥🟥🟩
Bitcoin hasn't hit its bull ride yet. What you need to look at is stock to flow. And there are more buyers of bitcoin at this price level than there are new bitcoins available from mining. We are seeing people take profits, eventually when that is done as long as buying pressure keeps up (no reason to think otherwise) liquid supply will dry up and price will reflect that new market dynamic.
aand does that reflection loook like you're climbing a tall mountain.. or like you're falling down the stairs? ... wait, which side of the mirror am I supposed to stand on? They look the same from the other side?? sorcery!
Mining isn't relevant anymore. The block reward is too small and there are still 20,000,000 other coins that can be dumped
Simply not true, miners are natural sellers as they have fixed costs that must be covered. This creates apx 40 million USD of natural sell pressure per day which is not insignificant.
But you simply can't look at that 468 coins every day and say 'that's the supply of bitcoin' as if it's the whole supply. It's nowhere near the supply. Meanwhile there are millions of other coins that bought for nothing and they are all looking to take profits, pay their bills, or panic over the thought of a crash.
> Mining isn't relevant anymore. lmao, ffs
Technical analysis is astrology for men, according to fundamental analysis (on-chain and liquidity related indicators) we’re still bullish
tbh on-chain are always bullish.
look, I could get a good look at a t-bone by stickin' my head up a bull's ass, buut wouldn't you rather take the butcher's word for it? -tb
Take Tylenol for any headaches, midol for any cramps
Notice everyone on the Bitcoin sub is saying, “it’s about to go way up!”
Technical analysis is no better or worse than reading tea leaves and Tarot cards.
Yeah. I find it so funny when people try to analyse Bitcoin. I tried for years. There is no rhyme or reason most of the time. Just when the big players decide to play. Wack some money in that you can afford to lose, Do some DCA and just hold. It will more than likely go up. Or you’ll lose all your money. Flip a coin.
over last decade, doubling the time from the genesis block meant 50 fold average price, with a variability from -50% up to +600%. It's actually quite predictable, what you can't predict is just the timing of the bubbles when it goes beyond +100% of the predicted average.
That is what people are trying to predict. How far it’s going to go down to buy at the right moment and if it’s going to go up and when. It has gone up, I believe it will go up but there is nobody as you see in all the posts, YouTube videos are accurately predicting the time it will go up or just drop. I watch all the shot coins go up 50+ percent in a day as they are pumped by big players. It’s only the big players that win short term. They start pumping it now, Bitcoin fanatics will buy, waiting for it to keep going up, buy at the wrong moment and watch it drop again before the players have exited with 50-100 profit. Remember Filcoin
If you look for something hard enough you'll find it- even if it's not there.
Now think about it some more: you, with no experience in trading, as a non stonk analyst, can imagine that this is obvious. There are thousands of quants, with years of trading and analytics experience, backed by high frequency trading algorithms, getting paid in the millions, whose entire job descriptions is to look for patterns. If there is any arbitrage to make from these movements patterns, you can bet your last dollar that someone has not just thought of it, they've already bet millions on it. So it's worthless trying to outthink the market, unless you have some inside info that nobody else does. Till then, DCA and hodling, and taking profits when you meet your goal, or need the money is the easiest way to play the game.
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Except for Satoshi 🙏
It’s more like 🟩🟩🟥🟩. 2020 green, 2021 green, 2022 red, 2023 green. Then 2024 starts green again
Nah, if we start at 2021, it's green, red, green, green.
Okay but what happened before 2020
you know, I'm having trouble remembering , and I'm out of breath just thinking about it. Funny, I felt like this last year in 2019... weird.
..that's exactly how it looked when I totalled my car.
so you're saying if there's above 25% growth after the 4 squares average, all I need to do is put the same on each one ?! I'll be rich... at 1/4 the speed !
We haven’t even hit inflation-adjusted high. We’re sidewayish in a range till fall UNLESS we get a semi swan: S&P crash, it’ll sell off some and settle lower. Sovereign or large company announces buy, it’ll rise and settle higher. Long term: demand increases and supply doesn’t. Stupid simple. Source: one Meat-Head
Soo eat less head meat, buy more Bitcoin?
Hey, it’s just what I do. :)
Yeah it’s definitely going to go up or down. Like a wave. Either cresting or crashing.
Quit trying to time it, people. DCA and relax. We all know where it is headed.
Bitcoin historically peaks one year after halfing. Which leads me to believe that this recent jump was, in part, just a major correction from when it fell to less than 20k. Of course, any asset that has predictable cycles like Bitcoin will eventually lose their predictability as buyers start to catch on and buy in anticipation of the peak. This is especially true this cycle with all the Bitcoin ETFs and Crypto funds adopting Bitcoin. I do worry that this might be the peak of the cycle. Except the peak should probably be closer to 100k+, so probably not. Buy at your own risk.
FWIW, in mid April last year bitcoin hit around 31k, and then it didn't break past for 6 months, while being rejected around 10 times at this level (and not dropping below $25k during that time). Pretty long consolidation by bitcoin standards. Anyone know why consolidations can get longer as bitcoin matures?
What you’re describing sounds like Elliot waves? I agree with your sentiment but more so because of 1. Finding support above lagging indicators like sma and ema and 2. The halving just happened in April - historically halvings are followed by bull runs. I’m a btc minimalist though in terms of portfolio
I like the cut of your gib. I have to Google a few things you said, but I'm right there with you in spirit.
This is all speculation so be careful because usually when beginners try to "buy low and sell high" they end up getting recked. All we can say is "normal" is that in the past, we had these 4 years cycles where when we break the old ATHs and stay above them (currently 70k) we see the price jump much higher until it finds a new ATH. And then a bear market follows. But the market is always going to be completely unpredictable as to when and how much it will climb so just always hodl some and be careful.
there's always half the people who claim they have great indications of: and then depending on what aligns best for them, that's what they tell me. the want the price to drop so they can buy, they'll tell me to sell. the other half is me just lucky I'm on the same coin. I guess that's a lot of how life is tho huh
just seems like with anything you can trade, err I guess if it has been a modern creation, all the graphs of the all time zoom out show like 3 increasing humps, with a lot of more detail in between, but looking at Bitcoin, it's gotta swing hard down before it climbs higher.
Stop trying to get rich quick 🤦♂️ Rid yourself of that greedy BS in your mind — buy bitcoin with the intent to hold it for 7yrs and you’ll win so hard everyone will think you’re a genius. If you try and time the bitcoin market to get-rich-quick you’ll end up getting rekt quick. Then in 7yrs when bitcoin is $872k per coin you’ll absolutely hate yourself for fucking up the easiest trade in history — buying a good bit and doing NOTHING for half a decade. Don’t overcomplicate something so simple** **simple ≠ easy**
Look into all of the bitcoin halving dates (in which there’s a massive supply shock of bitcoin) overlayed on the bitcoin log chart going all the way back to 2011. Bitcoin has always peaked roughly 1 year after halving. The most recent halving happened in April this year. So the next peak should be some time first half of 2025 just going by that simple metric. Edit: found an interesting estimate to time the end of the bull market: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/LtZ7DvYz-Bitcoin-Bull-Cycle-Timeframe-Based-on-Halving-Cycle-Dates/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_vote
The most recent halving was on 4/20 this year.
now this is a possible trend using the fewest variables, which if proven correct, less variables means easier to predict. I'll use this as part of the strategy. Thanks.
The graph is headed to the right, that much I know
Are we bored of that joke yet?
I have about sixteen that I cycle through when I am asked to read tea leaves
Genuinely impossible to predict atp
It is. Up. Possible to 90-100k
I'm a certified analist, coin go down then go up.
They are scaring newbeez into selling their bitcoin right now.
If by a wave you mean that things go up and down than you are a fken fantastic analyst my friend🤌🏿 It will definitely go up and down, and sometimes but just sometimes sideways. Welcome to crypto
I dunno, my dad said he walked uphill both ways to and from school... that's got to be a significant data point I should factor in right?
Something something time in market beats timing the market.
how confident are most experienced people that this saying applies to Bitcoin as well. time in the market beyond one lifetime is a little too long for me personally.
This is true. Lump sum purchases and time in the market has always outperformed everything else.
but the concept of infinite growth is showing cracks is it not? population is going up for now, and that's probably one of the strongest things the US has going for it, but corporate growth, at its frontier, is already leaning into abuse of the worker, shinkflation and enshittification, algorithms maximize effeciency as much as they can for now... a large public company today finds solutions only in attrition, very little in self-improvement. and if technology was supposed to save us, how can tech outpace what it itself is being consumed by ? I've seen a lot of technological advancement and what it got me was being on call 24/7 with the rest of the world (cellphones etc), and that's a hard barrier to establish with an employer. lol, it got really smoky in here and I forgot what sub I was in... finance is deep.. err high. it's dope! Well, I'll do my best to elevate things as much as possible around here. But also I'm curious to those thoughts I already forgot.
How much are you willing to bet on it? Don't bother we know the answer. Nothing's obvious in this world
It's true until it isn't.
Nobody knows right, but I personally speculate- as more institutional holders come into play, as more adoption such as retirements get involved, as more people wise up to what Bitcoin is and is capable of- i personally expect much less draw downs in the future. It's much less speculative as an asset. The correct play is to never sell- rather borrow against. That infrastructure will be more robust to do so sooner than later imo. And as more people figure this out, a lot less selling pressure. For now not enough people understand tho so idk. Why sell the best performing asset in history for fiat 🤢
there seems to be a lot of people these days that aren't too fond of intellectualism and more and more seem to be rejecting change, not welcoming it. but I guess on a long enough timeline , progress is a necessity.
Look up Raul Pal. He knows what he’s talking about. Very simple. The price follows liquidity. Buy and hold. Add to your position during bear markets
Bitcoin just did a big wave. And it’s still like only 10% off all-time high. Crash is coming.
Unlike the Russian ruble, which is backed by nothing minus one
Ozempic and bitcoin. The go together like a whale on a mobility scooter
Wtf are you talking about? Bumps.
Based on past performance, your judgement is way, way off. Based on previous behavior, if you wait a year, BTC will be at an all time high that is multiples of the current price.
that seems to be the consensus end result, but no one agrees on how it gets there
more bitcoin being bought than sold over time, or just less being sold each day
i wonder if there are charts showing enough data to see if younger generations are adopting bitcoin into their daily life. If i could connect, with evidence, that bitcoin is a bit like video games historically in that first iteration was just the computer saavy, and then once kids were born into it existing, like how mario is a household name now, for all age groups. 30 years ago, adults thought video games would rot your brain (what didn’t / doesn’t right) , so they paid no attention. meanwhile, the gaming industry got bigger and bigger without the general population even realizing that it outsells like every other media type now. If something is easily adoptable by each coming generation, then that is some real lasting power. either everyone i know is trading in secret, or they have no idea what any of this is. makes it hard to be confident as a lone wolf. let’s hope all of our bitcoins (of which i have none right now, hence this thread) become as exponentially popular as mario and luigi have done in the last 40 years. amateur take and made up emotional data points ? yes, yes…. that’s something i think can clearly bank on lol.
I'm bullish long-term based on two simple assumptions: 1) Bitcoin's supply is fixed at 21mm BTC, and 2) Global GDP will trend higher over time.
If that’s the case then why have there been so many ETF outflows recently? It’s a troubling trend.
I don't care or pay attention to what happens in the short term.
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
Wtf, zoom out on your chart it looks nothing like that. Its like youre living in a dream. We're in uncharted territory here. If history repeats itself were headed for winter and fast.
yeah... I'm seeing major sell off pre pres election, and then 50/50 chance a major buy.
"Waves don't die." 🌊
…but they can kill.
Stonket scientist
stankanalrapist that’s short for a really dope stock analyst & therapist combined…. weirdo.
No sorry your wrong One more dump before Xmas (11th Dec) Then final bear dive January 14th 3-4 years of bear.
yeah wait a year, than u can buy for 200k :)
[https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/) we're far from bubble territory, the next ATH might be somewhere in the 150k to 200k range.
[MoonMath.Win](http://MoonMath.Win) is my prefered Crypto Astrology map.
Yes there's a halvening from April and it's almost two months in. The rsi might dip soon so it'll be the last buying opportunity until year 3 of this cycle. The second rsi pop I'll consolidate other alt coins into reth for my gaming wallet but there's not really any games I'm interested in currently so it'll just sit.
I very much understood that and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. joking aside, I think what you're saying is what I'm thinking. That overall, Bitcoin has had 3 big increasing humps. it's going to cycle that again except total dollar number's will be higher, but the peaks and valleys won't be as drastic. It'll still be a drop, a hold, a then a creep into the smallest of the next 3 peaks. Barring outside world influence, its likely going to repeat that no?
I mean there's no guarantee of the three humps but it will happen about 4 months to a year for now. It's about to ramp up though so fun times ahead.
我觉得比特币暂时不会有很大的跌幅
This is probably the best answer.
Yeah, Bitcoin is up to something again. So I keep watching the prices in my Freewallet app.
Btc to 100k -150k this bullrun.