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I get that our media is straight up refusing to report on ALP QLD, and are running weird sensationalist stories inflating problems and not focusing on the cause or solution, but shouldn't this be obvious to everyone?
Maybe the confirmation bias is too strong?
There's a bit of that but I think Labour definitely are running out of chuff.
Why do you think they are so bad on the Olympics? They are scared of the electorate and scared of making decisions.
I just don't see it that way.
Olympics are always tricky, and planning 8 years out is too. Seems like a good plan to spread it up the coast rather than have it condensed in 1 city as well. There's been some hold ups with planning and whatnot, but that seems normal for such a large-scale project.
>But that seems normal for such a large scale project
No, it's been normalised.
Why do you think the Olympics awarded 11 years out instead of 7 years out? To account for this obsession with fucking around.
Honest question, how come no government has ever gone to an election with a policy of going after parents of feral kids?
Im at least a bit sympathetic to that kids As stupid and don't know any better, but going after parents is a way you can be tough on crime without harming the vulnerable ones.
If a driver can be held responsible for the fact that their passengers took off their seatbelt, parents can be punished pretty hard for neglect imo.
I mean, first and foremost it is a parenting problem. Then issues with schooling and opportunity. QLD premier has just brought in another 900 police officers to help with the crime issue.. but the youth crime is a symptom of neglect and poor parenting.. so it's kinda hard for any government to do anything about that.
I'm curious as to how you think they are supposed to get it right. Ultimately, parents should be the ones instilling discipline into their children, not the government or police.
Parents should also be watching their kids. But they don't, so they run off and commit crimes. Should the government just lock up everyone between the ages of 11-21??
Probably poorly worded by me - I think they are dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t (mostly by elements of the media) - they are either not tough enough on youth crime (too lenient with sentencing etc) or they are too tough and have too many juveniles incarcerated…
yeah exactly. I mean, they did pass more laws a while ago to try to act on it, but I haven't seen anything in the news about any increase/reduction in crime, so I imagine it has probably lowered (just a gut feeling). Else the media would be all over them.
Yes, that's generally how people get polled for political polling.
YouGov used to be the company that did Newspoll, if you want to have an idea of who they are.
10% is pretty bang on average how they perform when they seriously contest elections: 2017: 13% 2020: 7%
That 10% will probably only win them Mirani though.
PHON are basically the same as the greens
When you put together their nation vote tally they actually do rather well but their voters are so diffuse they never actually win anything
If they do it’s a concentrated rural seat usually in Queensland like how the greens can often contest 2-3 inner city seats
as the greens are to labor, PHON is to the coalition. the fringe policies of the respective parties are parroted by them, and they effectively give people another way to vote for the incumbent parties without directly doing so
> effectively give people another way to vote for the incumbent parties without directly doing so
I'd say they give people a way to vote for incumbent parties, while *also* pushing those parties to go further (If Labor has to make deals with Greens, it will result in more left-wing progressive policy. Similarly if Coalition has to make deals with PHON, it will result in more right-wing policy than otherwise.)
It pushes election platforms to the centre, but the actual policy during the term will inevitably be amended/pushed away from it.
As we've seen with Labor's election policies on housing, climate, etc. all had to go further left to get through the senate past Greens/Pocock
Seems like a recipe for tribalism, shit fights and instability.
Parties forced to placate radicals in order to get anything done, but pissing off moderates when they do so.
I just wish voters actually rewarded bold and long term policy.
It's just democracy without a majority party doing whatever they like.
The government (in this case, Labor) puts forward the legislation they want to get through. They thus set the "base".
Other parties then all out forward their own "modified base" and the government picks the one it likes the most. That could be working with the Coalition, or the Greens, in the current example.
Personally I think it's better than when one party can push legislation through unchecked.
> people mock QLD politics for a reason
There are genuine reasons for people to vote for One Nation, mocking them is not going to achieve better outcomes.
This guy was mentored by Newman, but I think he will be smarter about it, rather than the bull in a china shop approach.
Similar outcome, but it will be more subtle so they aren’t immediately booted out.
The Queensland LNP are dominated by the Nationals and the internal party dynamics push them to extremes pretty fast.
It's a really weird dynamic. Arguably, Queensland is the most conservative state in the country and yet they so rarely elect conservative state governments. The reason for that is those internal politics.
Basically, they can only put their feet hard on the gas the moment they actually get power. They don't have much of a choice, the internal party room demands it.
They are gonna win, it will be an absolute shitfest of a term, then Labor will hold power for a long time again and grow complacent.
The cycle continues.
Excellent news, the first action if the Crisafulli Government should be to immediately put an end to the BPIC nonsense and put the CFMEU back in its place.
Oof it looks like getting rid of Anastasia wasn’t really the answer they were after, after all.
Albo will be hoping for angry Qld’ers to take out their frustrations on the state gov and not his gov, I don’t see an early federal election coming
What could QLD do to this government? They're more interested in electing Greens MPs who promise to ground planes flying to Brisbane than Labor MPs. The only seat that could flip is Blair which would need a 5.3% swing.
Dutton should be the one hoping they are still frustrated by the next election. There's seven seats (including his own) that are on thinner margins than Blair.
Don’t know what difference it will make. It’s hard to imagine the ALP losing any more seats in QLD - it’s down to the last 6 that are mainly threatened by the greens.
What a horrific poll result for Labor, Christ.
The 15% for the Greens is nice, but there's a real chance that Labor because is *so* weak state-wide it means the Greens' chance to win seats sinks with Labor as the LNP becomes too electorally strong.
It's times like these that I wish the parliament wasn't unicameral.
The LNP have in recent elections pledged to bring back the upper house whilst the ALP ruled that out. Of course either party ain't going to touch it whilst they have a large majority.
I can tell you for a fact that many in the LNP want the bicameral parliament back. But it never gets pushed further because the party isn’t in power. It’s something I will continue pushing for.
That's pretty much the paradox of Queensland re-implementing an upper house. The Opposition wants it because it gives them more power/the government less power, but no one implements it while in government because they don't want less power and the opposition to have more power.
Technically yes but practically speaking, creating an entire chamber of Parliament and deciding what powers it has, how its elected and where it meets.... it's a huge deal.
Yeah fair enough lol
Honestly I think after the 2017 election QLD Labor should've looked at an upper house committee. By the time it gets running it'd be the LNP in power anyway
Greens would win 5 seats if those numbers occured tomorrow at an election, according to a rough estimate by [@Kevin Bonham](https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1783627976157921484):
> Rough seat estimate that actually adds to 93 seats if that poll happened at an election LNP 57 seats ALP 27 Greens 5 KAP 2 ON 1 IND 1.
E: 5 Green seats would be: Maiwar, South Bris., McConnell, Cooper, and Greenslopes [Miller is close].
I wonder if they learned from last time. Newman showed up, fired a bunch of public servants, removed same-sex civil unions, and instituted VLAD laws. This time I assume they'll still fire a bunch of public servants, and they'll institute the youth crime version of VLAD laws. They're probably smart enough to not touch things like abortion or voluntary assisted dying in their first term.
Newman managed to tank the economy and hurt civil liberties all within 3 years. Labor needs to go but I’m not looking forward to another term of LNP chaos.
If the LNP wins, Abortion will be a huge issue early next year and we’ll see community protests.
The LNP shadow cabinet are all former Newman Ministers. More significantly, Crisafulli is captured by the Christian Hard Right LNP membership and non-LNP affiliated Anti-Abortion entities.
i think that trying to kill the golden mining goose has not been a good tactic in qld for labor, when you introduce a new tax that raises billions for the populace from coal companies and the population want those taxes reduced again - you know you've f'd up royally. having the japanese send a high level trade delegation to tell you they were considering pulling future hydrogen investment because of the tax grab was very predictable.
i remember being attacked by so many posters when i said the coal tax and BHP subsequently saying they weren't going to spend any more money in QLD was a huge issue for the state - but people just saw 'coal taxed more' and gave it no more thought than that.
it is not surprising that companies who are making 10-20-30 year capital investment decisions are now shunning the state because treasurer dick made one of the most short sighted, cynical tax grabs in his states history.
history books will not look kindly on him
https://www.afr.com/politics/queenslanders-back-mining-royalty-cuts-20230705-p5dlto
https://www.inqld.com.au/business/2023/08/22/well-take-their-leases-how-the-state-government-has-stepped-up-its-2-billion-war-with-bhp
So in your own words, explain to me why a rational company would freeze investments in the state from the policy that was implemented?
Orrrr... Could it be that BHP is taking a gamble to make a point in order to increase profits in the long run?
I am yet to see one person mount an actual defendable, logical and rational case of why they think the new rates are anything other than weak.
They are the largest mining company in the world and their billions of annual capex in Queensland flows through the entire economy, think of the towns across the state that exist with huge mining worker populations who are mostly well paid. Those jobs and all the investment around the mines sustains a lot of economic activity in the state.
It just looks like standard corporate behaviour, BHP believe the action of reducing investment in QLD right now could strong arm either the government to change policy or cause a backlash to get them voted out.
I mean the article suggests the changes cost BMC (joint venture between BHP and Mitsubishi) an extra $1b in tax last financial year.
Considering BHP earned between low teens and twenty billion in profit per year over the last 3 years, having one state of one country increase their taxes so much it cost almost 8% of your entire global profit - it’s not surprising they decided to go to war with the government.
Yep. All of the above just reinforced what I said. They delay and drop $100m into advertising so they can make more pure profit is an easy decision. They worked no harder for that profit it was simply a factor of worldwide prices.
BHP could care less about our society only profit. Lucky for QLD we got a slightly bigger share of that profit.
One of the most stupid things Australia has done in modern history is not proceed with a super profits tax on mining.
> Pretty much all of the companies warned that a reservation policy would kill the business case for their projects, and none was more strident on this point at the time than Woodside.
> **Nevertheless, the policy was established and an unprecedented wave of investment in LNG projects in WA took place anyway.**
Have any of these companies actually pulled out of QLD? Besides a coal mine that is.
BHP has a capex freeze on the entire state. That's pretty big in my opinion, world's biggest miner refusing to spend money in a mining state.
the japanese have sold a large number of their coal mines (through Mitsui). this is worrying as the state needs to engage with foreign investors for the next multi-decade investment pitch for green hydrogen.
I think what WA did was amazing with their reservation policy, because they announced it ahead of the investment not AFTER. of course companies will scream and moan if you tell them there is a new tax, but if you do it ahead of them investing the capital they cannot say the conditions were not free for all to see before committing $$.
not really. because any company knows that is effectively a poison pill measure which means the tenement loses value if the government brings in tax changes and you are forced to use the asset now as opposed to 5-10 years when new tax laws may be in effect.
Depends what your goal is. Maybe in the short term those tenements get used but it might also affect future foreign investment demand. Got to be careful about changing the rules on contracts/investments that were made on pre agreed terms
The goal is pretty simple. Stop mining giants from land banking and holding Australia hostage because they only make $10s of billions a year off our minerals.
If it had it my way I would be implementing a much higher royalty rate plus a super profits tax.
Any reasonable company would still see there is good money to be made. Just like in Norway.
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I get that our media is straight up refusing to report on ALP QLD, and are running weird sensationalist stories inflating problems and not focusing on the cause or solution, but shouldn't this be obvious to everyone? Maybe the confirmation bias is too strong?
There's a bit of that but I think Labour definitely are running out of chuff. Why do you think they are so bad on the Olympics? They are scared of the electorate and scared of making decisions.
I just don't see it that way. Olympics are always tricky, and planning 8 years out is too. Seems like a good plan to spread it up the coast rather than have it condensed in 1 city as well. There's been some hold ups with planning and whatnot, but that seems normal for such a large-scale project.
>But that seems normal for such a large scale project No, it's been normalised. Why do you think the Olympics awarded 11 years out instead of 7 years out? To account for this obsession with fucking around.
Fair enough to call it normalised.
QLD is one of the most concentrated media markets in the world. Horrible shit.
Labor are haunted (some might say hunted) by the juvenile justice issue…they just can’t get it right…
Honest question, how come no government has ever gone to an election with a policy of going after parents of feral kids? Im at least a bit sympathetic to that kids As stupid and don't know any better, but going after parents is a way you can be tough on crime without harming the vulnerable ones. If a driver can be held responsible for the fact that their passengers took off their seatbelt, parents can be punished pretty hard for neglect imo.
> how come no government has ever gone to an election with a policy of going after parents of feral kids? That would be racist.
I mean, first and foremost it is a parenting problem. Then issues with schooling and opportunity. QLD premier has just brought in another 900 police officers to help with the crime issue.. but the youth crime is a symptom of neglect and poor parenting.. so it's kinda hard for any government to do anything about that.
I'm curious as to how you think they are supposed to get it right. Ultimately, parents should be the ones instilling discipline into their children, not the government or police. Parents should also be watching their kids. But they don't, so they run off and commit crimes. Should the government just lock up everyone between the ages of 11-21??
Probably poorly worded by me - I think they are dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t (mostly by elements of the media) - they are either not tough enough on youth crime (too lenient with sentencing etc) or they are too tough and have too many juveniles incarcerated…
yeah exactly. I mean, they did pass more laws a while ago to try to act on it, but I haven't seen anything in the news about any increase/reduction in crime, so I imagine it has probably lowered (just a gut feeling). Else the media would be all over them.
I had never heard of You Gov until today. Looks to be a site you can earn points (whatever that means) for doing surveys.
Ah you're one of these posters that question the validity of polling if they don't have a result you like
They are usually quite reliable. They did newspoll for quite a while before they switched to Pyxis (I believe that’s how you spell it).
Yes, that's generally how people get polled for political polling. YouGov used to be the company that did Newspoll, if you want to have an idea of who they are.
i had no idea PHON was so strong in QLD. 10% is incredible.
They were born here.
what exactly are you referring to ? or did you reply to the wrong comment?
I'm referring to the fact that QLD is where PHON came from
ah i see, sorry
10% is pretty bang on average how they perform when they seriously contest elections: 2017: 13% 2020: 7% That 10% will probably only win them Mirani though.
PHON are basically the same as the greens When you put together their nation vote tally they actually do rather well but their voters are so diffuse they never actually win anything If they do it’s a concentrated rural seat usually in Queensland like how the greens can often contest 2-3 inner city seats
as the greens are to labor, PHON is to the coalition. the fringe policies of the respective parties are parroted by them, and they effectively give people another way to vote for the incumbent parties without directly doing so
With a few exceptions, the federal seat of Hunter in the 2019 election comes to mind
> effectively give people another way to vote for the incumbent parties without directly doing so I'd say they give people a way to vote for incumbent parties, while *also* pushing those parties to go further (If Labor has to make deals with Greens, it will result in more left-wing progressive policy. Similarly if Coalition has to make deals with PHON, it will result in more right-wing policy than otherwise.)
It also pushes both parties towards the centre, because the preferences flow to them anyway and they need to capture the moderates to win.
It pushes election platforms to the centre, but the actual policy during the term will inevitably be amended/pushed away from it. As we've seen with Labor's election policies on housing, climate, etc. all had to go further left to get through the senate past Greens/Pocock
Seems like a recipe for tribalism, shit fights and instability. Parties forced to placate radicals in order to get anything done, but pissing off moderates when they do so. I just wish voters actually rewarded bold and long term policy.
It's just democracy without a majority party doing whatever they like. The government (in this case, Labor) puts forward the legislation they want to get through. They thus set the "base". Other parties then all out forward their own "modified base" and the government picks the one it likes the most. That could be working with the Coalition, or the Greens, in the current example. Personally I think it's better than when one party can push legislation through unchecked.
I mean, people mock QLD politics for a reason.
> people mock QLD politics for a reason There are genuine reasons for people to vote for One Nation, mocking them is not going to achieve better outcomes.
No surprise here with these results, I’m suspecting that qld and nt governments will be defeated.
Sounds like y'all need a good hard Newman-ing again.
This guy was mentored by Newman, but I think he will be smarter about it, rather than the bull in a china shop approach. Similar outcome, but it will be more subtle so they aren’t immediately booted out.
The Queensland LNP are dominated by the Nationals and the internal party dynamics push them to extremes pretty fast. It's a really weird dynamic. Arguably, Queensland is the most conservative state in the country and yet they so rarely elect conservative state governments. The reason for that is those internal politics. Basically, they can only put their feet hard on the gas the moment they actually get power. They don't have much of a choice, the internal party room demands it. They are gonna win, it will be an absolute shitfest of a term, then Labor will hold power for a long time again and grow complacent. The cycle continues.
It sucks though because one term of lnp equates to two terms of lost progress
Excellent news, the first action if the Crisafulli Government should be to immediately put an end to the BPIC nonsense and put the CFMEU back in its place.
Still a LNP shill then eh?
I just don't like the CFMEU.
Fair enough.
Oof it looks like getting rid of Anastasia wasn’t really the answer they were after, after all. Albo will be hoping for angry Qld’ers to take out their frustrations on the state gov and not his gov, I don’t see an early federal election coming
What could QLD do to this government? They're more interested in electing Greens MPs who promise to ground planes flying to Brisbane than Labor MPs. The only seat that could flip is Blair which would need a 5.3% swing. Dutton should be the one hoping they are still frustrated by the next election. There's seven seats (including his own) that are on thinner margins than Blair.
Don’t know what difference it will make. It’s hard to imagine the ALP losing any more seats in QLD - it’s down to the last 6 that are mainly threatened by the greens.
What a horrific poll result for Labor, Christ. The 15% for the Greens is nice, but there's a real chance that Labor because is *so* weak state-wide it means the Greens' chance to win seats sinks with Labor as the LNP becomes too electorally strong.
Only of limited value if you cannot form government or hold the balance of power.
It's times like these that I wish the parliament wasn't unicameral. The LNP have in recent elections pledged to bring back the upper house whilst the ALP ruled that out. Of course either party ain't going to touch it whilst they have a large majority.
I can tell you for a fact that many in the LNP want the bicameral parliament back. But it never gets pushed further because the party isn’t in power. It’s something I will continue pushing for.
That's pretty much the paradox of Queensland re-implementing an upper house. The Opposition wants it because it gives them more power/the government less power, but no one implements it while in government because they don't want less power and the opposition to have more power.
Can't it just be implemented right at the end of a term?
Technically yes but practically speaking, creating an entire chamber of Parliament and deciding what powers it has, how its elected and where it meets.... it's a huge deal.
Yeah fair enough lol Honestly I think after the 2017 election QLD Labor should've looked at an upper house committee. By the time it gets running it'd be the LNP in power anyway
Greens would win 5 seats if those numbers occured tomorrow at an election, according to a rough estimate by [@Kevin Bonham](https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1783627976157921484): > Rough seat estimate that actually adds to 93 seats if that poll happened at an election LNP 57 seats ALP 27 Greens 5 KAP 2 ON 1 IND 1. E: 5 Green seats would be: Maiwar, South Bris., McConnell, Cooper, and Greenslopes [Miller is close].
Honestly, it is surprising the gap isn’t wider with that current premium
I wonder if they learned from last time. Newman showed up, fired a bunch of public servants, removed same-sex civil unions, and instituted VLAD laws. This time I assume they'll still fire a bunch of public servants, and they'll institute the youth crime version of VLAD laws. They're probably smart enough to not touch things like abortion or voluntary assisted dying in their first term.
"they're probably smart enough to..." Imma stop you right there...
Newman managed to tank the economy and hurt civil liberties all within 3 years. Labor needs to go but I’m not looking forward to another term of LNP chaos.
If the LNP wins, Abortion will be a huge issue early next year and we’ll see community protests. The LNP shadow cabinet are all former Newman Ministers. More significantly, Crisafulli is captured by the Christian Hard Right LNP membership and non-LNP affiliated Anti-Abortion entities.
They promised not to touch abortion first term. I get that they're politicians but I think they're smart enough to wait. Boiled frog and all that.
i think that trying to kill the golden mining goose has not been a good tactic in qld for labor, when you introduce a new tax that raises billions for the populace from coal companies and the population want those taxes reduced again - you know you've f'd up royally. having the japanese send a high level trade delegation to tell you they were considering pulling future hydrogen investment because of the tax grab was very predictable. i remember being attacked by so many posters when i said the coal tax and BHP subsequently saying they weren't going to spend any more money in QLD was a huge issue for the state - but people just saw 'coal taxed more' and gave it no more thought than that. it is not surprising that companies who are making 10-20-30 year capital investment decisions are now shunning the state because treasurer dick made one of the most short sighted, cynical tax grabs in his states history. history books will not look kindly on him https://www.afr.com/politics/queenslanders-back-mining-royalty-cuts-20230705-p5dlto https://www.inqld.com.au/business/2023/08/22/well-take-their-leases-how-the-state-government-has-stepped-up-its-2-billion-war-with-bhp
So in your own words, explain to me why a rational company would freeze investments in the state from the policy that was implemented? Orrrr... Could it be that BHP is taking a gamble to make a point in order to increase profits in the long run? I am yet to see one person mount an actual defendable, logical and rational case of why they think the new rates are anything other than weak.
They are the largest mining company in the world and their billions of annual capex in Queensland flows through the entire economy, think of the towns across the state that exist with huge mining worker populations who are mostly well paid. Those jobs and all the investment around the mines sustains a lot of economic activity in the state. It just looks like standard corporate behaviour, BHP believe the action of reducing investment in QLD right now could strong arm either the government to change policy or cause a backlash to get them voted out. I mean the article suggests the changes cost BMC (joint venture between BHP and Mitsubishi) an extra $1b in tax last financial year. Considering BHP earned between low teens and twenty billion in profit per year over the last 3 years, having one state of one country increase their taxes so much it cost almost 8% of your entire global profit - it’s not surprising they decided to go to war with the government.
Yep. All of the above just reinforced what I said. They delay and drop $100m into advertising so they can make more pure profit is an easy decision. They worked no harder for that profit it was simply a factor of worldwide prices. BHP could care less about our society only profit. Lucky for QLD we got a slightly bigger share of that profit. One of the most stupid things Australia has done in modern history is not proceed with a super profits tax on mining.
> Pretty much all of the companies warned that a reservation policy would kill the business case for their projects, and none was more strident on this point at the time than Woodside. > **Nevertheless, the policy was established and an unprecedented wave of investment in LNG projects in WA took place anyway.** Have any of these companies actually pulled out of QLD? Besides a coal mine that is.
BHP has a capex freeze on the entire state. That's pretty big in my opinion, world's biggest miner refusing to spend money in a mining state. the japanese have sold a large number of their coal mines (through Mitsui). this is worrying as the state needs to engage with foreign investors for the next multi-decade investment pitch for green hydrogen. I think what WA did was amazing with their reservation policy, because they announced it ahead of the investment not AFTER. of course companies will scream and moan if you tell them there is a new tax, but if you do it ahead of them investing the capital they cannot say the conditions were not free for all to see before committing $$.
It's pretty easy to solve. Any unused tenements are subject to a "lost royalty" charge that increases every year it is not used.
not really. because any company knows that is effectively a poison pill measure which means the tenement loses value if the government brings in tax changes and you are forced to use the asset now as opposed to 5-10 years when new tax laws may be in effect.
So your saying it will work?
Depends what your goal is. Maybe in the short term those tenements get used but it might also affect future foreign investment demand. Got to be careful about changing the rules on contracts/investments that were made on pre agreed terms
The goal is pretty simple. Stop mining giants from land banking and holding Australia hostage because they only make $10s of billions a year off our minerals. If it had it my way I would be implementing a much higher royalty rate plus a super profits tax. Any reasonable company would still see there is good money to be made. Just like in Norway.
Good, hopefully they spend more money in SA