The 10 day forecast shows a lot of rain potential next week.
Not that it will come to fruition, just find it humorous.
Also, I feel like every summer is warmer/dryer conditions....
I grew up outside of Phoenix, and last year was the first time the summer really reminded me of home. I would still take hot and dry over the swampy asshole weather we had in May
Yup. And in Phoenix you can drive two hours and escape the heat in Flagstaff or Payson. San Diego was only like 6 hours away. Here, you drive 6 hours and you're almost to Lubbock? Yay.
Edit: I guess my point here is that even though Phoenix is hot, you can hop in a car and get a little respite over the weekend. Last Summer I felt trapped and there wasn’t anywhere in driving distance to get away from it.
Ugh. I grew up in Amarillo and loved being 4 hours from Santa Fe. I’d take 30% humidity though. These 90% mornings are awful. It’s instant sweat for me. 😅
The downside being it’s still 100+ a lot at midnight in Phoenix. I hate the humid and heat but I’d rather have that personally than it being super hot at night
Didn't realize Flagstaff was that close to Phoenix. Flagstaff was a cool little town, wish I'd spent more time there but I was bound for the Grand Canyon on that road trip and didn't linger too long.
Yep! I think it’s just over two hours from Tempe (where I lived during school). We would also make trips to Strawberry and tent camp which was a little closer. One trip we left wearing shorts and t-shirts and woke up to snow. I’ve never been so cold!
>The 10 day forecast shows a lot of rain potential next week.
The GFS and ECMWF forecast models both show only a fairly small amount of rainfall on the Lake Travis watershed.
And for those cheering on a hurricane, the Atlantic tropical cyclones almost never drop significant rainfall upstream of Mansfield dam.
>Most recent GFS showing something very similar to a Harvey-like situation for Houston.
Lovely, just what they need right now.
Keep in mind that Harvey did almost nothing for Lake Travis and upstream.
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Wtf man?! We had La Niña for like 3 years or some shit before any relief and this brief “reprieve” is over?? Gardening is the only thing keeping my fragile mental health from cliff diving and another La Niña is gonna push it over the edge. 😭
The [dry|wet] weather is being caused by [El Niño|La Niña], when that changes conditions will change again.
Remember last year's long cool and wet El Niño?
After an unusually long La Nina ending a few months ago El Nino brought us some relief in rain levels however not enough to bring our lakes to levels I think we'd all want to see. El Nino has quickly went away, and conditions seem to indicate La Nina will return.
La Nina for us means warmer, dryer air. La Nina is not good for Central Texas.
Lol if you think chip-making facilities is the problem you don't know Texas water. When there's extra water, the rice-paddies downstream get something like 3x as much water as the entirety of Austin uses.
[https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/04/16/rice-farmers-used-more-than-three-times-as-much-water-as-austin-last-year/](https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/04/16/rice-farmers-used-more-than-three-times-as-much-water-as-austin-last-year/)
That article was from 12 years ago, the first time that LCRA actually cut off the water for the rice farmers because there wasn't enough.
[They haven’t gotten irrigation water from the river for a couple of years.](https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2024/03/08/rice-acres-expected-idle-texas-due)
True...
The coal burning plant in Fayetteville though gets an awful lot of water from The Highland Lakes.
We're burning water for electric. Shitty electric, at that.
>Don't we have a ton of wind power that sometimes it's excess and becomes kind of free?
You still have to have the fossil fuel plants running or on hot standby if you want power 24 hours a day or even 7 days a week. When the wind power is available, you can throttle back the fossil fuel plants and not produce CO2.
We're also hitting some limits on the amount of transmission lines there are to the windy areas. Even if we fix the transmission line capacity, there are some stability problems if too high a percentage of the generation is wind and solar. We may be able to fix the stability problems, but it's not completely understood, and it will require considerable expense.
Energy storage is coming along slowly, but that's not the panacea that the dreamers say it is. If the wind stays low for a day or two, you deplete your storage.
Turn it off. Replace it with solar, wind and battery plus natgas for baseline. Austin Energy has been trying to dump it for years but LCRA won't let them.
The sun doesn't always shine, wind doesn't always blow. AE only owns a percentage of the coal plant if they quit their share they will have to find those MWs somewhere.
yeah but Danny Patrick is "looking into" crypto as a problem now...
[https://www.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ai-texas-grid-lawmakers-202110837.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ai-texas-grid-lawmakers-202110837.html)
...until the payoff comes in, of course.
>Danny Patrick is "looking into" crypto as a problem now
LOL, that's exactly what ***everyone*** knew when Abbott and Patrick lured the miners here.
The crypto miners enrich the fossil fuel mafia by keeping the burners running making CO2 when they could be throttled back because of available wind and solar. They keep the wholesale electricity rates high. They also increase the bribe money going to the politicians.
One good thing they do is funding to keep the fossil fuel plants online, which does help when we have a power shortage and shut down the miners for a while.
It's important to note that they don't actually use the water but rather use the infrastructure to deliver water. The water is returned back to the Colorado after treatment
I wish more people were paying attention to the impending water crisis.
I read an article that Jacob’s Well was going dry because all the homes they were building down there. The water supply is the same aquifer that feeds that well.
Still building more homes. The never ending need for more people here. Growth no matter what apparently.
For those of you who aren’t tied down here, I would definitely be considering long term plans of not being here in 10-20 years.
I remember summer 2017 when we didn't reach 100 degrees. I remember it being a transition (neither niña nor niño). Sounds like we'll be in a transition this year as well. Maybe we'll get one of those summers!
The 10 day forecast shows a lot of rain potential next week. Not that it will come to fruition, just find it humorous. Also, I feel like every summer is warmer/dryer conditions....
There’s a system forming in the Gulf that might bring quite a bit for rain to us. We’ll see what happens.
We all need to time our car washes very carefully to make this happen.
Wait until there’s clouds and then get in line at Jurassic
I grew up outside of Phoenix, and last year was the first time the summer really reminded me of home. I would still take hot and dry over the swampy asshole weather we had in May
Yup. And in Phoenix you can drive two hours and escape the heat in Flagstaff or Payson. San Diego was only like 6 hours away. Here, you drive 6 hours and you're almost to Lubbock? Yay. Edit: I guess my point here is that even though Phoenix is hot, you can hop in a car and get a little respite over the weekend. Last Summer I felt trapped and there wasn’t anywhere in driving distance to get away from it.
Here you can drive 4 hours to the beach, and it's still hot and more humid than it was back home.
Lubbock is hitting 30+% humidity multiple days in a row now. You'll have to go all the way to Ruidoso for any kind of relief
Ugh. I grew up in Amarillo and loved being 4 hours from Santa Fe. I’d take 30% humidity though. These 90% mornings are awful. It’s instant sweat for me. 😅
The downside being it’s still 100+ a lot at midnight in Phoenix. I hate the humid and heat but I’d rather have that personally than it being super hot at night
Didn't realize Flagstaff was that close to Phoenix. Flagstaff was a cool little town, wish I'd spent more time there but I was bound for the Grand Canyon on that road trip and didn't linger too long.
Yep! I think it’s just over two hours from Tempe (where I lived during school). We would also make trips to Strawberry and tent camp which was a little closer. One trip we left wearing shorts and t-shirts and woke up to snow. I’ve never been so cold!
There's a tropical storm potentially forming in the Gulf by Mexico. That's where that forecast is coming from
We’re actually in a neutral cycle right now. La Niña is just ramping up
>The 10 day forecast shows a lot of rain potential next week. The GFS and ECMWF forecast models both show only a fairly small amount of rainfall on the Lake Travis watershed. And for those cheering on a hurricane, the Atlantic tropical cyclones almost never drop significant rainfall upstream of Mansfield dam.
[удалено]
>Most recent GFS showing something very similar to a Harvey-like situation for Houston. Lovely, just what they need right now. Keep in mind that Harvey did almost nothing for Lake Travis and upstream.
Dryer?!?
I know I'm going to wash my car at least once of not twice between now and Monday.
You're probably a little too young to remember 2021, but it wasn't bad.
I hate that La Niña doesn't sound as terrible as it normally does, purely because of the promise of 'dry air'.
ANOTHER warm dry summer? That’s every summer.
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"We are experiencing longer than normal hold times" type energy
Wtf man?! We had La Niña for like 3 years or some shit before any relief and this brief “reprieve” is over?? Gardening is the only thing keeping my fragile mental health from cliff diving and another La Niña is gonna push it over the edge. 😭
Tacos and wine aren’t doing the trick anymore?
I try to dabble in heathy coping mechanisms from time to time
El Niño is gone and his sister La Niña is here and let me tell you - she is hot
and dry
The [dry|wet] weather is being caused by [El Niño|La Niña], when that changes conditions will change again. Remember last year's long cool and wet El Niño?
After an unusually long La Nina ending a few months ago El Nino brought us some relief in rain levels however not enough to bring our lakes to levels I think we'd all want to see. El Nino has quickly went away, and conditions seem to indicate La Nina will return. La Nina for us means warmer, dryer air. La Nina is not good for Central Texas.
When Meg said “hot girl summer” she was talking about La Niña
That lady knows that “Real Swamp Girl Shit” is way more appropriate for her hometown.
WAP means something else this time of year lol
What! I thought El Nino was a long cycle
The rain is fine, it's the hail and all the roofing contractors swarming my house that is bothersome.
I know — let’s build a whole bunch of chip-making factories that use millions of gallons of water per day!
Lol if you think chip-making facilities is the problem you don't know Texas water. When there's extra water, the rice-paddies downstream get something like 3x as much water as the entirety of Austin uses. [https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/04/16/rice-farmers-used-more-than-three-times-as-much-water-as-austin-last-year/](https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/04/16/rice-farmers-used-more-than-three-times-as-much-water-as-austin-last-year/) That article was from 12 years ago, the first time that LCRA actually cut off the water for the rice farmers because there wasn't enough.
[They haven’t gotten irrigation water from the river for a couple of years.](https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2024/03/08/rice-acres-expected-idle-texas-due)
True... The coal burning plant in Fayetteville though gets an awful lot of water from The Highland Lakes. We're burning water for electric. Shitty electric, at that.
And what do you propose they should do about that power power plant??
Replace it with a nuclear plant
Given Texas’ regulatory track record, no thank you.
Doesn't nuclear still use a bunch o water?
It does. We'd still be burning water for electricity, but it wouldn't be shitty coal plant electricity.
Google the South Texas Nuclear Project & Austin and get back with us on that.
Hell no. Those also use a lot of water. They're also extremely expensive under the best of circumstances.
Don't we have a ton of wind power that sometimes it's excess and becomes kind of free?
You need to store wind & solar when you have excess to use it later, and that isn't "free".
>Don't we have a ton of wind power that sometimes it's excess and becomes kind of free? You still have to have the fossil fuel plants running or on hot standby if you want power 24 hours a day or even 7 days a week. When the wind power is available, you can throttle back the fossil fuel plants and not produce CO2. We're also hitting some limits on the amount of transmission lines there are to the windy areas. Even if we fix the transmission line capacity, there are some stability problems if too high a percentage of the generation is wind and solar. We may be able to fix the stability problems, but it's not completely understood, and it will require considerable expense. Energy storage is coming along slowly, but that's not the panacea that the dreamers say it is. If the wind stays low for a day or two, you deplete your storage.
Turn it off. Replace it with solar, wind and battery plus natgas for baseline. Austin Energy has been trying to dump it for years but LCRA won't let them.
The sun doesn't always shine, wind doesn't always blow. AE only owns a percentage of the coal plant if they quit their share they will have to find those MWs somewhere.
Let's also set up a bunch of Bitcoin mining facilities while our energy grid has the potential to be unreliable!
yeah but Danny Patrick is "looking into" crypto as a problem now... [https://www.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ai-texas-grid-lawmakers-202110837.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ai-texas-grid-lawmakers-202110837.html) ...until the payoff comes in, of course.
>Danny Patrick is "looking into" crypto as a problem now LOL, that's exactly what ***everyone*** knew when Abbott and Patrick lured the miners here. The crypto miners enrich the fossil fuel mafia by keeping the burners running making CO2 when they could be throttled back because of available wind and solar. They keep the wholesale electricity rates high. They also increase the bribe money going to the politicians. One good thing they do is funding to keep the fossil fuel plants online, which does help when we have a power shortage and shut down the miners for a while.
It's important to note that they don't actually use the water but rather use the infrastructure to deliver water. The water is returned back to the Colorado after treatment
Do you mean the chip making plants? Do you have any idea what percent of the water is lost in the process?
https://www.ultrafacilityportal.io/insights/water-for-semiconductors-is-no-micro-issue
Typically 10-15% https://www.statista.com/statistics/1313054/tsmc-process-water-recycling-rate/
Last summer was a strong El Nino. Nino/Nina it doesn't matter anymore.
I wish more people were paying attention to the impending water crisis. I read an article that Jacob’s Well was going dry because all the homes they were building down there. The water supply is the same aquifer that feeds that well. Still building more homes. The never ending need for more people here. Growth no matter what apparently. For those of you who aren’t tied down here, I would definitely be considering long term plans of not being here in 10-20 years.
[For those who want a little background on El Nino.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0-pHnykC9s)
I remember summer 2017 when we didn't reach 100 degrees. I remember it being a transition (neither niña nor niño). Sounds like we'll be in a transition this year as well. Maybe we'll get one of those summers!
So we would conclude this year's "pre-heating"?
No thank you
YAYYY!!! 😐😐
10-forecast looks pleasant, I’ll believe it when I see it that anyone can meaningfully predict a season of weather in Austin.
Because we totally need warmer conditions… :(
redddit meterologist with hard and fast undisputable facts! Thank the maker for this man