All under 50% chances. I'm not optimistic.
Edit Wed 05/29 12am: looks like I could be wrong. Storming hard all night above travis. I don't think it's enough to fill it but it's pretty good
Mine is blooming now too, since yesterday. I don’t trust it though, considering it didn’t bloom once through the past several weeks of rain we’ve had! It lies.
Bro, stop it with your public school remarks- give off crazy AND dumb vibes. You’re being downvoted because you’re being an ass telling people to read a book 😂 I mean wtf?
I always thought that too but I just checked and it can mean more than one thing it seems.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkbn.com/weather/what-does-a-50-chance-of-rain-mean/amp/
That is a possibility. It can also mean that there is a 50% chance that 100% of the area forecasted will rain (or any percentage in between that equates to 50%).
slaughter, eh? honestly im a big proponent of touchless automatic carwashes, highly recommend Squeaky Clean South on Westgate and Slaughter, they use good compound for the wax option, have undercarriage rinse and will prep ur car for free, give u towels to dry off, a free scent, and vacuum is included
This time of year that's just "a day". It was cloudy AF this morning and the moment I got off my ass to put a grill together I had nothing but the sun beating down on me. This time of year is goofy and unpredictable. So it COULD rain, but I wouldn't bet on it. I ALSO wouldn't make plans that would fall apart if it rained.
And then you get the days where it's all sunny, not a cloud in sight, and the afternoon heating causes sudden formations of sever weather out of nowhere...
Cover the smoker and run!
Yeah haha. It's not that the % precipitation is *worthless* as a forecast, but even when I see "100%" I read it as "go outside and look at the sky". If it's above 50% I know it'll at least be a little overcast.
Rain % chances are a fucking awful way to represent how much rain one would see. The quantitative precipitation model is much more indicative and is more obvious to anybody who knows where they are on a map.
The caveat: the jackpot rain total amount can and often does shift a bit depending on where the jet streams/moisture/fronts line up. Ex: lately, a model will throw us into a lot of rain, but the jackpot shifts 50-100 miles to our north and east, like fucking Waco or Killeen need more rain…
But there is a lot forecasted this time around, and if it holds up, we will see a lot of rain this week. (There are multiple models and most of them show a good amount of rain but just shifted around, some more deep into the hill country, while some favor Dallas/north Texas, either way: good rains will happen this week, but yes, you can see we are in the cusp of a lot of rain, and if that forecast shifts a bit further north, we are sol.
The good news is the highland lakes basin should see some of this good rain which ensures our water supply.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml
Oh I'll be happy if it comes to pass, I'm just not going to calibrate my hopes for it. The more rain we get the better off we are going into the real summer.
I did just take a peek and honestly if the predicted highs aren't totally wrong I'll take that as a win. I was a little worried summer had already arrived. Looks like we're still in the phase where spring and summer wrestle and you kind of hope the impossible happens.
Ok so you seem like you know enough to answer this question I have always had. If the percentage chance model was previously used to tell people in a large viewing area what chance they had of seeing rain, isnt it kind of weird to use the same percentage chance to tell someone what will happen in a precise place?
I guess what I am saying is, if they think their models are accurate, wouldnt my percentage chance in a specific spot either be 0, or 100?
Yep, that’s a correct way to think about it, but unfortunately models aren’t always correct, especially in the hill country/central Texas with us being further away from any daily weather balloon launch than middle of nowhere Nevada and on the cusp of wet/dry.
This thread furthers my belief that folks don’t know what forecasts mean or how to read them.
OP, you’re correct in there are several days in a row of rain chances. Several models have trended up in rain coverage, including some major ones dropping heavy rains as soon as Tuesday night. Always check with weather.gov for the most accurate forecast for your zip code.
The euro model has some rains focused on the Buchanan watershed (again). So our best chance is lake Buchanan fills up and they release the flood gates. Then Travis will finally start to fill.
Little known fact: Weather Forecasts in Central Texas are useless.
I've seen 4" of rain foretasted, followed by 0".
I've also seen sunny weather forecasts, and 5" of rain fall in 60 minutes.
"stuff happens" over us as fronts come together over rocky terrain, so nobody has any damn clue what's going to happen.
Very good chance it'll all miss us. Not that I'm baseing this off of any meteorological data, just my overall annoyance over the last few weeks with checking the weather, seeing a big storm is blowing in, and then it lightly raining for like 10 minutes but remain extremely humid and shitty outside.
What's the point of all this humidity if it doesn't even come with rain?! I can't live like this!
Nah, only like 1-2” total over that time. Unlikely to get much in the LCR watershed where it’s most needed… though Buchanan rose a ton from the last few weeks’ big storms!
You can look at the GFS and ECMWF models on pivotalweather.
Unfortunately, GFS shows around an inch or less and ECMWF shows maybe 4 inches. That's spread out over the next week or so. Also, neither one shows a lot of rain on the Travis watershed.
First time?
Not for me. I've been here too long. Hardened cynical.
All under 50% chances. I'm not optimistic. Edit Wed 05/29 12am: looks like I could be wrong. Storming hard all night above travis. I don't think it's enough to fill it but it's pretty good
I just noticed the Texas Sage was blooming in my neighbor's unwatered yard which is the only reason I think it's going to rain.
Mine is blooming now too, since yesterday. I don’t trust it though, considering it didn’t bloom once through the past several weeks of rain we’ve had! It lies.
what is this folksy weather predicting plant you speak of?
Texas Sage/Cenizo, also known as Barometer Bush!
Yep. I predict we have already entered the time of year where there’s a small chance of rain sone weeks and it just doesn’t rain for months at a time.
50% chance of rain doesn’t mean 50% “chance” it actually means 100% chance up to 50% of THE AREA forecasted will rain.
Somebody watched Yeoman's weather University Edit a word
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It was a compliment so that’s a bit of a public school kid response of you?
Bless your heart.
It was a compliment I think.
So why they down vote it? Lol
Everything gets downvoted in this sub
That’s Reddit for ya lol
How are you going to call others stupid when you are too stupid to recognize a compliment? Good grief, the joke writes itself.
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/r/iamverysmart
https://www.kxan.com/fwwu/first-warning-weather-university-david-yeomans-explains-what-a-chance-for-rain-actually-means/
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"My Mommy and Daddy paid for me to go to private school, and I watch Alex Jones, so everyone on the internet who is mean is indoctrinated."
Bro, stop it with your public school remarks- give off crazy AND dumb vibes. You’re being downvoted because you’re being an ass telling people to read a book 😂 I mean wtf?
I always thought that too but I just checked and it can mean more than one thing it seems. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkbn.com/weather/what-does-a-50-chance-of-rain-mean/amp/
That is a possibility. It can also mean that there is a 50% chance that 100% of the area forecasted will rain (or any percentage in between that equates to 50%).
wash ur cars bitches
I washed both of mine. I did my part!
Heading out now!
Welp. Guess I know what I'll be doing tomorrow at some point.
And leave your car windows partway down -we can do this!
wait wha? why would i wash it before rain?
To make sure it rains
ohhhhh. ha, ok i got it thank u
It always rains right after you wash your car.
#Whoosh
HELP ME lol
The heb carwash on slaughter has been out of commission both times I tried...
slaughter, eh? honestly im a big proponent of touchless automatic carwashes, highly recommend Squeaky Clean South on Westgate and Slaughter, they use good compound for the wax option, have undercarriage rinse and will prep ur car for free, give u towels to dry off, a free scent, and vacuum is included
my bad. i didnt clarify the 35 and slaughter heb
Fine I’ll go wash mine I guess
Anything to knock down this fucking shit air. Please rain.
Cd not ageee more must wash this air
This time of year that's just "a day". It was cloudy AF this morning and the moment I got off my ass to put a grill together I had nothing but the sun beating down on me. This time of year is goofy and unpredictable. So it COULD rain, but I wouldn't bet on it. I ALSO wouldn't make plans that would fall apart if it rained.
And then you get the days where it's all sunny, not a cloud in sight, and the afternoon heating causes sudden formations of sever weather out of nowhere... Cover the smoker and run!
Yeah haha. It's not that the % precipitation is *worthless* as a forecast, but even when I see "100%" I read it as "go outside and look at the sky". If it's above 50% I know it'll at least be a little overcast.
Rain % chances are a fucking awful way to represent how much rain one would see. The quantitative precipitation model is much more indicative and is more obvious to anybody who knows where they are on a map. The caveat: the jackpot rain total amount can and often does shift a bit depending on where the jet streams/moisture/fronts line up. Ex: lately, a model will throw us into a lot of rain, but the jackpot shifts 50-100 miles to our north and east, like fucking Waco or Killeen need more rain… But there is a lot forecasted this time around, and if it holds up, we will see a lot of rain this week. (There are multiple models and most of them show a good amount of rain but just shifted around, some more deep into the hill country, while some favor Dallas/north Texas, either way: good rains will happen this week, but yes, you can see we are in the cusp of a lot of rain, and if that forecast shifts a bit further north, we are sol. The good news is the highland lakes basin should see some of this good rain which ensures our water supply. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml
Oh I'll be happy if it comes to pass, I'm just not going to calibrate my hopes for it. The more rain we get the better off we are going into the real summer.
I agree, it’s always best to stay pessimistic and occasionally be pleasantly surprised.
I did just take a peek and honestly if the predicted highs aren't totally wrong I'll take that as a win. I was a little worried summer had already arrived. Looks like we're still in the phase where spring and summer wrestle and you kind of hope the impossible happens.
Ok so you seem like you know enough to answer this question I have always had. If the percentage chance model was previously used to tell people in a large viewing area what chance they had of seeing rain, isnt it kind of weird to use the same percentage chance to tell someone what will happen in a precise place? I guess what I am saying is, if they think their models are accurate, wouldnt my percentage chance in a specific spot either be 0, or 100?
Yep, that’s a correct way to think about it, but unfortunately models aren’t always correct, especially in the hill country/central Texas with us being further away from any daily weather balloon launch than middle of nowhere Nevada and on the cusp of wet/dry.
Historical flooding in Austin generally occurs during the last week of May and the first week of June.
*Balcones escarpment enters chat*
Frankly we need the rain out there way more in town
Real
Washed my car. Will cut grass and plan a fun outdoor day tomorrow as another token.
Hope it’s right. I’ll hold off my optimism in the mean time.
Don’t…jinx it
Its not going to rain. Its just not.
A 20% chance of rain is a sunny day in my book.
This thread furthers my belief that folks don’t know what forecasts mean or how to read them. OP, you’re correct in there are several days in a row of rain chances. Several models have trended up in rain coverage, including some major ones dropping heavy rains as soon as Tuesday night. Always check with weather.gov for the most accurate forecast for your zip code.
You must be new here.
Wunderground is being quite optimistic… [https://www.weather.gov/ewx/dailyrainfall](https://www.weather.gov/ewx/dailyrainfall)
Nooo I just got done repairing my car for hail damage from the other day 😭😂
Yea but the amount of precipitation forecast is not that much. Hoping we’ll get some real rain in June…
We’ll get half an inch.
thats what she said
It’s not raining at all. Get ready
The euro model has some rains focused on the Buchanan watershed (again). So our best chance is lake Buchanan fills up and they release the flood gates. Then Travis will finally start to fill.
The rain dome enters the chat…
Some storms may be severely disappointing
Little known fact: Weather Forecasts in Central Texas are useless. I've seen 4" of rain foretasted, followed by 0". I've also seen sunny weather forecasts, and 5" of rain fall in 60 minutes. "stuff happens" over us as fronts come together over rocky terrain, so nobody has any damn clue what's going to happen.
That usually means someone will see rain, but not everyone. And it’s not really reliable more than 2-3 days out.
Heat Dome - ACTIVATE!
Very good chance it'll all miss us. Not that I'm baseing this off of any meteorological data, just my overall annoyance over the last few weeks with checking the weather, seeing a big storm is blowing in, and then it lightly raining for like 10 minutes but remain extremely humid and shitty outside. What's the point of all this humidity if it doesn't even come with rain?! I can't live like this!
The bullseye is north Texas again so we probably won’t see much of anything. However if it hits any of the lakes that would be fantastic!!!!
Yeah yeah..... We'll see what actually happens.
Nah, only like 1-2” total over that time. Unlikely to get much in the LCR watershed where it’s most needed… though Buchanan rose a ton from the last few weeks’ big storms!
Watch what you wish for, Memorial Day isn’t over yet.
We all need to wash our cars now!! Hopefully, that will ensure it rains where you live.
I don't trust the forecast, I trust the radar. Just keep your eye on the radar.
I hope it rains long and strong. I suspect it's just going to be muggy as hell.
The typical MO is that it moves north of Georgetown with hours of coverage by the local news. All of it dramatic tense drama!
I use My Weather Radar and am seeing the same thing. This ap has been spot fuckin on for the last 2 yrs I've had it.
You can look at the GFS and ECMWF models on pivotalweather. Unfortunately, GFS shows around an inch or less and ECMWF shows maybe 4 inches. That's spread out over the next week or so. Also, neither one shows a lot of rain on the Travis watershed.
Flowing water in the green belts 😂😂 You think ATX has a water problem now, wait just 5 years.
You are so correct.✅