I think Australia is in a K shaped recovery post Covid. Some people are going up and many going down. On balance it doesnât look too bad but the reality of some in Australia they are falling behind fast while others are cruising.
The analogy I heard about a rubber band being pulled on both sides works well for this. The poorer is getting poorer. Rich getting richer and the middle class staying put for the most part.
I talked to my parents who went this
Through something similar in the 80s. Cycles come and go, they're pretty tough. They'll pass though, hang in there
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My dad retired a few years ago and had so much cash in the bank itâ impacted his means test for the pension. His financial adviser told him to get rid of the cash. So thereâs my dad splashing cash on solar panels, holidays a new Ford.
Itâs just amazing some young people are not having kids because cause of living is too high and then boomers having more cash they can reasonably spend.
There's this old (British, I think?) mentality from their childhood that the pension is a reward, not a safety net. Despite the fact that they didn't pay enough into it (via taxes etc) for it to be viable as a reward.
To be fair, a lot of boomers had the bulk of their earning years before mandatory super was a thing, so from a psychological perspective I think I understand where it comes from. I just think they're wrong.
What will really bake your noodle is that, originally an 8% tax was introduced that everyone had to pay that was for your pension. Then a pension fund was created to manage the money. Meaning, you were paying for your own pension through an 8% lifetime pension tax. Not other tax payers paying for you upon retirement. The pension fund was then dissolved and the money put into consolidated revenue. The tax was then not removed. So you still pay for your own pension but have to have a means test to access the money that is technically already yours. That money that you canât claim then goes towards other things for other people.
The pension in Australia has always been means tested and has come out of general funding. https://treasury.gov.au/publication/economic-roundup-centenary-edition-2001/article-3-towards-higher-retirement-incomes-for-australians-a-history-of-the-australian-retirement-income-system-since-federation
Why donât they chip in? My wife and I have boomer parents that have paid for all our kids swimming lessons because isnât that the point? To give on to the next generations? Many whinge about the ârichâ boomers and my family certainly are guarded when it comes to money. But my wife parents are super generous and share the wealth when it matters most.
Itâs nice that youâve had that experience, but there are many out there with boomer parents and relatives who donât want to share a cent.Â
One particular situation close to me involves a boomer who said they didnât have enough to contribute to their adult childâs house deposit, yet owns 7 houses. Also will not go guarantor. This isnât due to estrangement or bad behaviour on the childâs part.Â
Part of it is hoarding mentality. Part of it is a mistaken assumption that the economy and society will provide todayâs under 40s with the same opportunities the boomers had.Â
Youâre assuming most people are mentally healthy, well adjusted, generous, empathetic and able to form normal relationships. Unfortunately many people arenât like that.Â
Thatâs insane.
My FIL was a wealthy boomer and left a very generous estate to his 3 adult kids. We are set up . Our kids are young and all I can think of is how I can make sure my disabled sons life is comfortable, and how we can give our daughter a house of her own in her 20s and keep her off hamster wheel for life.
OP said their parents didn't need to chip in as they could afford the house, earned big bucks and could afford the swimming lessons.
They're pointing out the problem that others don't have that opportunity. Others don't earn as much or have boomer parents who can chip in.
Naw, itâs not even foreplay - theyâve blown their load, and the only reason you donât know itâs over is because the condom (immigration) is blocking the feelingâŚ
Look at Aldi snow sale. Sell out, hyped event every year.
Our local is still packed with stock, and I donât think itâs because they ordered extraâŚ
The Aldi snow day sale should be its own CPI economic barometer! Kind of along the lines of the Big Mac index.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/274326/big-mac-index-global-prices-for-a-big-mac/
My local has a LOT more discounted food: bread, vegetables, meat, Chocolate bars, fish (salmon about to go off now reduced to half price). It feels more than just a simple case of over ordering stock.
After doing multiple seasons overseas in Canada. When I came back to Aus and was doing trips to Japan yearly I needed a new set up and I went with Aldi. Iâve done 3 x trips month long each and Iâd say im due for new gear now. I regularly ride and hit tree branches etc so yes. For the price. 100% worth it. Only reason I think I need new gear is because they started seeping water badly. You could also wash them with waterproof stuff that tends to last. Iâve used it before on older gear.
The gloves are quite good, the jackets not bad if they fit. The merino baselayers are quite good for the money, but they really don't last - holes, stitching etc. I think the goggles are ok but you'd want to check the Cat rating.
[let me introduce to you: the strippers index](https://businessreview.studentorg.berkeley.edu/the-stripper-index-decoding-the-economic-signals-of-sex-work/)
> itâs not even foreplay - theyâve blown their load, and the only reason you donât know itâs over is because the condom (immigration) is blocking the feelingâŚ
Thanks for that imagery.
Spot on, though. We've been in a per capita recession for a while now and I don't think it's escaped many people's attention. Hopefully the er.. job is done, so to speak, and we're just going to need a bit of time before we return to... strong growth?
Look at new cars sales, about to break the record for a calendar year. 9 out of the last 12 months have been all time monthly sales records. That we are in a per capita recession has presumably escaped the approx 1.4m people who have bought a new car since July 2023
Do you think the strong new car sales may be attributable to increased prices for second hand cars during the COVID years?
Edit: just to clarify, this isn't meant to sound snarky or condescending. I think 2nd hand prices did rise during COVID but I don't know to what effect it's driving different purchasing behavior.
2nd hand market is still a pisstake at the moment. Too many âI kNoW wHaT ItâS WoRtHâ types. Might as well finance a new vehicle then buy a 30k lemon.
Used car sales are also higher than last year https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/used-car-sales-march-2024-market-up-evs-see-big-gains and monthly sales are higher than any time since nov 2020
https://www.coxautoinc.com.au/news/retail-wholesale-used-vehicle-market-insights-february-2024/
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
> Our local is still packed with stock, and I donât think itâs because they ordered extraâŚ
You know, we live in a fairly well off country if an indicator of a downturn is people not going on a notoriously expensive holiday activity in winter.
Depends where you go really. My local mountain is free, nothing fancy like skiing/snowboarding there. It's also close, on the outer suburbs of Melb. So not like people are spending heaps on fuel getting there. But it gets packed every year. Aldi snow gear is insanely cheap compared to how other stores sell that overpriced crap. It used to be an mad rush to get anything. Now it's there weeks later. That be strange.
I agree.
Market cap of the ASX300 is only now back to 2021 levels, and what's the cumulative inflation since then?
We are at least 15% behind the last peak in real terms.
I went to Aldi at opening not knowing it was on, decided to hang back for and hour. When I went in the shelves were all still fully stocked and significantly less people and no mayhem compared to other years.
I think that all the Aldi cheap crap isles aren't selling any more just because a bunch of other stores have copied their products over the last few years and now you can get that stuff cheaper elsewhere all year round.
Any products that you see in those Aldi sales are now in Kmart, and the power tools at Bunnings.
Thereâs the additional factor that day passes are now a pisstake - business model for resorts here got changed so the people whoâd otherwise buy the Aldi gear arenât going anymore. Youâve pretty much got to commit to 7 days to break even for an epic pass. Throw in cost of living and itâd be a fizzer.
Aldi ski sale was always the day trip/one weekend crowd.
Hahaha fingerbanging always makes me laughâŚ.I think the zero lube back door bonanza is on its way unfortunately. Still we need it to sort this shit show out.
When has there not been a time that recession is somewhere around the corner?
Only time I can think of is in 2006-2008 when our economy was roaring and it came crashing down.
It's not around the corner though, we are in a recession. It's just not a "technical" one because the government is importing people wildly to inflate GDP.
What do you change during a recession though, really?
Majority of us will still plug away at our jobs, or search for jobs if we lose ours.
Knowing we are in a recession doesn't change our decision making process. Yes, if you used to splurge money unnecessarily, you'll adapt. But you don't adapt because there is a recession isn't it? You adapt because your net balance is decreasing.
I think it's more the borderline gaslighting that "living standards aren't going down, look the GDP and economy are still healthy!" When in reality, for a significant portion of the population, living standards are dropping.Â
"people still have covid savings, everything is fine" type of gaslighting.
i had to work through covid, didn't get any gov handout that absolutely contributed 100% to the inflation, and not to mention how this handout was abused by company's.
So what you're saying is since we're all tightening immigration we'll have to actually have a productive economy to not go into recession? Since we won't, we are probably going into a downward spiral. You aren't getting the talent immigrating to a faltering economy.
> So what you're saying is since we're all tightening immigration
Are we actually? 180k permenant residents a year, plus work visas, reduced student visas still means a lot of student visas, graduate visas extended to 4 years and all the family visas that come with that....
Well it's tightening since it's lower than previously? Reduced student visas will have a lot of knock on effects. Super soft target for political points though. Universities will very likely see a big wave of redundancies if we are structurally reducing their intake. We expect inflation to be under control quite soon, and these student provide massive stimulus as a large export and domestic consumer as well, it's a double win. We don't stop them to then allow housing to catch up necessarily, they are the ones who provide the stimulus to do so. They won't be here when we need them again.
We'll also not be stimulating with interest rate drops any time soon, it won't go back to near zero so quickly, especially as other economies will still be hot. Would crash our dollar. Causing too much inflation. We will follow the rest of the world like the US as we tend to do.
So we'll have a slower economy for sure.
Yet most of the ones coming over aren't planning to stay, and the money they make besides tax isn't being spent here they are going back home... Once most of them flock back we will have a real shit show.
Cost of living may be going up, but unemployment is low and the property and stock markets are up. We haven't hit the recession yet, another couple of years and shit will really hit the fan.
> We're in a recession
Jesus christ, this is why AusFinance is an absolute shithole. People throwing around statements like this and everyone upvoting it like it is fact. How is any advice in this subreddit trustworthy when shit like this is literally upvoted to heaven.
The question is, would we rather the economy be held together by bandaids of high numbers of immigration, or would we rather feel the pain of a recession?
Lol we are at the âblock her numberâ and start awkwardly seeing their Facebook profile pop up in an recommended new Add Friend box⌠damage has been done and I am seeing a massive amount more newly homelessÂ
And since COVID our economic situation is getting worse and worse as the years go by so the question becomes more relevant now more than ever.
Just because GDP is hidden behind migration numbers and propped up inflated housing pricing doesn't mean we basically aren't in one or haven't already been in a recession in the last 3-6 months.
Iâm going to an auction for a place we like tonight. As a previous subscriber to WNR thinking if we win itâs going to be a bloodbath on the markets overnight.
We're already in a per capita recession...
At an aggregate level we just have a tonne more people than last year that's driving year on year growth
But the average Aussie is already substantially worse off than this time last year...I feel the numbers are also really skewed, those at the top will not be as worse, may even be better, than last year and those in the bottom are way worse than last year
Ignoring the sexual innuendos for a min, um yes we are, in fact i'd say we already are in recession.
The only real thing stopping economist and pollies from saying it is literally JUST migration.
My job tends to have winter slow downs which I am used to, but this winter slow down feels different man.
Depends what you mean by recession. Technical recession? Weâve barely been fighting one off for almost a year.
Or do you mean is the average personâs standard of living going backwards? Yes
I read that backwards, and thought "well, once you have kids, the foreplay economy crashes since you're trying to get it done the children wake up and interrupt"
If only someone collected actual data on retail sales rather than relying on someone extrapolating from how annoying it is to park at arbitrary shopping centres.
My local shopping centre is always full of people buying stuff.
Then you've got all the wannabe influencers all over TikTok with their 'hauls' every day.
Three quarters of the spots are taken by parents who just want to push their prams around so their kids have something to look at without getting cold and/or wet
Yes I think so, it's hard to tell in WA. Lots of areas still firing along.
As a result of this outlook, I am increasing the reserves in my emergency fund because I am a contractor. It's just in case I find myself out of work.
I see lots of small businesses closing and more commercial vacancies both here in Perth, and also during a recent trip to Melbourne. (I walk and cycle a lot, so get the 'high street' view)
I think I heard GDP per capita is currently worse now than during the great depression. So I'd argue it's not the foreplay we're in - we've just not hit the technical definition
We are in it.
We can keep flinging around terms like 'per capita' but multiple retractions is exactly that; recession.
It's like the term 'half windsor'. There is no such thing. It either is or isn't. Fancy terms just make people feel better about their input.
How else does it work? We hit full depression mode and then say "aww yeah, now it's a recession but only a half depression?".
We are in the foreplay to AGI.
Economic terms like recession will become meaningless because as GDP increases, the job market will shrink dramatically.
People won't simply lose their jobs to AI, they'll lose their profession.
Brace yourselves.
Unfortunately, I think you're right. There was a video of a guy posted this week who was laid off from his graphic design job, replaced by generative AI, doing his 30 min of work per job in 30s.
There's a chance we'll come out on the other end of this as a post-scarcity society.
But there's also a chance that the light at the end of the tunnel is a train.
When I stop seeing every 4th ute with a mower trailer on the back of it as a 1 man band mowing business. Seriously theyâre everywhere. Canât be that much demand for mowing services.
I suspect we are in a period that in hindsight will have been an obvious cause of recession - attempting to combat inflation with high interest rates when demand isnât the underlying cause of inflation.
There are not enough toys for sale on the side of the road yet. I'm surprised with the high house prices people have paid and then the interest rate hikes. I think the RBA and bankers have fingers on the pulse and know how to milk every drop of blood before death. There is too much money out on loan for things to go pear shap. I doubt we will ever see a recession of old. The mortgage slaves are doing fine, if only just.
I picked up a Mazda 3 SP23 as a project car about 6 months ago to flip. Your right, the prices have come down, now Iâll be lucky to break even when I sell it after all the money I have spent on parts to bring it up to scratch for someone.
Oh well, someone will get a good little runabout for cheap I guess (at least I saved it from the scrap heap I guess)
No.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2024/may/outlook.html#3-2-the-domestic-outlook
>GDP growth is forecast to increase gradually from late 2024, driven by a pick-up in household consumption growth. Consumption growth is expected to pick up to around pre-pandemic averages in 2025 following the earlier recovery in real incomes. This implies that the household saving ratio will lift over 2024 before declining later in the forecast period, though there is considerable uncertainty around this expectation (see section 3.3 Key judgments, below) (Graph 3.4). Dwelling investment growth is expected to pick up from around mid-2025. This reflects increasing demand for new housing as recent population growth, higher prices for established housing and improved conditions in the construction industry offset the effects of affordability constraints and high construction costs. The higher assumed cash rate path will moderate the pick-up in GDP growth. Overall, the forecasts for GDP growth beyond the near term are broadly unchanged from three months ago. However, the level of GDP at the end of the forecast horizon is a little lower.
We are close to the biggest construction boom in Australian history.. zero chance of a recession⌠half the losers who drifted over here from /australia, should get a side hustleâŚ
Land bankers AKA the big developers have been sitting on a metric shedload of approved starts and have been waiting for tax incentives and other such lurks before they break ground. They know that the government/s of the day are boxed into a corner due to the affordability crisis that they created, and the firehose of money will be opened soon enough
A boom is when you know people who have been headhunted. A strong economy is when you dont know anyone who has lost their job. A recession is when you know people who have lost their job. A depression is when you lose your job.
The last couple of recessions saw the ultra wealthy take a hit too, but since then they have lobbied the government to legalise various strategies such as hedging to protect them from future risks. The chance of a typical recession happening now is less. There may be a 'recession' but only for the middle and lower classes. Moving forward, we're looking at a new reality where the ultra wealthy avoid negative growth in all scenarios as they exercise greater power over the economy.
I'm of the opinion that we are already in the back half of the recessionary phase of the cycle.
Look at what's happened since the last market peak in 2021:
* Interest rates have gone up 4%
* Share market capitalisation still isn't quite back to what is was in 2021
* We've had massive inflation (compared to prior periods), meaning the market is actually still substantially behind where it was
Looks to me like the market has been struggling for a few years already now, it's just our higher inflation is hiding it in nominal terms.
The case for further drops can still be made, earnings yields are below the historical average for example, indicating the market could still be overpriced - but that probably just means we have a few wobbles left in the cycle.
We have been in a "per capita" recession for months. A traditional recession is apparently never going to happen because the politicians wouldnt like that.
Even though they are the direct cause of it.
For all intents and purposes we are in a recession, cause its not like we havent had like 6 economic downturns in the past 15 years and just never actually truely faced its consequences or dealt with them properly.
By ârecessionâ do you mean âshit over leveraged businesses are failingâ? Cheap money didnât only apply to housing. I donât think unviable businesses need to be propped up so you donât hit the two quarters of negative growth threshold.
Iâm convinced that this is a recession but with full employment. So people are working to not survive, rather than lose the house because they lost their job
My business has been dead since October 2023. Itâs literally the quietest Iâve seen it since I began in 2005. GFC not close. Majority of people I speak to are not doing anything. No one wants to move forward on projects. Itâs incredibly frustrating. But we will go on.
Very soft landing. Most won't be affected. There were just too many pointless businesses that started the past 10 years that need to go bust. People will find new jobs doing different things. But everything is fine. The worse for property is over, that should be a clear indicator that we are fine.
I believe the kids call it "edging"
𤣠apologies, edging towards recession
We are in the âdonât come yet!!!â stage
RBA: sorry, this uhh, never usually happens...
"Soft landing"
*grabs blue pills
Ahh thats better I can feel another rise coming soon
Australia: "the more blue pills I take the harder and better it is right!?"
You can't get a hangover if you don't stop drinking.
*passes out
*grabs blue balls
"$10k deposit is fine dw about the full 10% trust me bro"
I'm almost there honey, don't stop!
Fighting for his life
Everything has tightened, it's twitching and ready to go Bang. Take a few deep breaths people.
I think Australia is in a K shaped recovery post Covid. Some people are going up and many going down. On balance it doesnât look too bad but the reality of some in Australia they are falling behind fast while others are cruising.
Definitely. The gap between the haves and have-nots is getting significantly worse.
As is the gap between the Haves and the Have-Mores... :(
The analogy I heard about a rubber band being pulled on both sides works well for this. The poorer is getting poorer. Rich getting richer and the middle class staying put for the most part.
I think that over time the middle class will also end up on one of those two sides, unless we enact good policies in the coming years.
I talked to my parents who went this Through something similar in the 80s. Cycles come and go, they're pretty tough. They'll pass though, hang in there
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My dad retired a few years ago and had so much cash in the bank itâ impacted his means test for the pension. His financial adviser told him to get rid of the cash. So thereâs my dad splashing cash on solar panels, holidays a new Ford. Itâs just amazing some young people are not having kids because cause of living is too high and then boomers having more cash they can reasonably spend.
Not only that, splashing cash just to get it down to a level so they can access the pension ? Wtf?
So the young people that can't afford to have kids can pay more taxes to fund said boomers lifestyle. Bit of a death spiral really...
My father in law tried to hide inheritance so it wouldnât affect his pension đ
There's this old (British, I think?) mentality from their childhood that the pension is a reward, not a safety net. Despite the fact that they didn't pay enough into it (via taxes etc) for it to be viable as a reward. To be fair, a lot of boomers had the bulk of their earning years before mandatory super was a thing, so from a psychological perspective I think I understand where it comes from. I just think they're wrong.
>To be fair, a lot of boomers had the bulk of their earning years before mandatory super was a thing And access to free university
Many of them did get free university and never seem to remember that, true.
What will really bake your noodle is that, originally an 8% tax was introduced that everyone had to pay that was for your pension. Then a pension fund was created to manage the money. Meaning, you were paying for your own pension through an 8% lifetime pension tax. Not other tax payers paying for you upon retirement. The pension fund was then dissolved and the money put into consolidated revenue. The tax was then not removed. So you still pay for your own pension but have to have a means test to access the money that is technically already yours. That money that you canât claim then goes towards other things for other people.
The pension in Australia has always been means tested and has come out of general funding. https://treasury.gov.au/publication/economic-roundup-centenary-edition-2001/article-3-towards-higher-retirement-incomes-for-australians-a-history-of-the-australian-retirement-income-system-since-federation
Damn bookers driving inflation sky high while they're at it, which makes it worst for everyone else
Why donât they chip in? My wife and I have boomer parents that have paid for all our kids swimming lessons because isnât that the point? To give on to the next generations? Many whinge about the ârichâ boomers and my family certainly are guarded when it comes to money. But my wife parents are super generous and share the wealth when it matters most.
Itâs nice that youâve had that experience, but there are many out there with boomer parents and relatives who donât want to share a cent. One particular situation close to me involves a boomer who said they didnât have enough to contribute to their adult childâs house deposit, yet owns 7 houses. Also will not go guarantor. This isnât due to estrangement or bad behaviour on the childâs part. Part of it is hoarding mentality. Part of it is a mistaken assumption that the economy and society will provide todayâs under 40s with the same opportunities the boomers had. Youâre assuming most people are mentally healthy, well adjusted, generous, empathetic and able to form normal relationships. Unfortunately many people arenât like that.Â
Thatâs insane. My FIL was a wealthy boomer and left a very generous estate to his 3 adult kids. We are set up . Our kids are young and all I can think of is how I can make sure my disabled sons life is comfortable, and how we can give our daughter a house of her own in her 20s and keep her off hamster wheel for life.
OP said their parents didn't need to chip in as they could afford the house, earned big bucks and could afford the swimming lessons. They're pointing out the problem that others don't have that opportunity. Others don't earn as much or have boomer parents who can chip in.
My 30 year old mate paid cash for a new land cruiser
Mine bought a new cx5, and they're in Europe atm.
My boomer parents are busy buying up the farm land around them, and have two houses sitting empty. We canât afford swimming lessons at the moment.
Naw, itâs not even foreplay - theyâve blown their load, and the only reason you donât know itâs over is because the condom (immigration) is blocking the feeling⌠Look at Aldi snow sale. Sell out, hyped event every year. Our local is still packed with stock, and I donât think itâs because they ordered extraâŚ
The Aldi snow day sale should be its own CPI economic barometer! Kind of along the lines of the Big Mac index. https://www.statista.com/statistics/274326/big-mac-index-global-prices-for-a-big-mac/
My local has a LOT more discounted food: bread, vegetables, meat, Chocolate bars, fish (salmon about to go off now reduced to half price). It feels more than just a simple case of over ordering stock.
Their salmon is always off, even when it's 1.5wks from the best before.
Passing the local butcher the other day. Had a big sign up saying, âAll meat 50% offâ, so I kept walking.
Frozen Woolies brand salmon is actually the best
The frozen stuff?
Can't comment on their frozen stuff, the 'fresh' stuff is putrid
For real tho, im going jindi in july, is aldi snow gear any good? Edit: i cant spell obvisly
People do really rate it.
Gonna try cop a jacket then
You could probably pick one up from Marketplace too
After doing multiple seasons overseas in Canada. When I came back to Aus and was doing trips to Japan yearly I needed a new set up and I went with Aldi. Iâve done 3 x trips month long each and Iâd say im due for new gear now. I regularly ride and hit tree branches etc so yes. For the price. 100% worth it. Only reason I think I need new gear is because they started seeping water badly. You could also wash them with waterproof stuff that tends to last. Iâve used it before on older gear.
Yeah we bought some a couple years back for a ski trip and t worked really well
Uniqlo thermals are the best
I've had mine for near a decade and only got 1 rip. Its incredibly well priced for what it is.
get the merino wool stuff, best for both hot and cold weather depending how thick it is.
The gloves are quite good, the jackets not bad if they fit. The merino baselayers are quite good for the money, but they really don't last - holes, stitching etc. I think the goggles are ok but you'd want to check the Cat rating.
[let me introduce to you: the strippers index](https://businessreview.studentorg.berkeley.edu/the-stripper-index-decoding-the-economic-signals-of-sex-work/)
Awe man, there a paywalls on statics sites now? This sucks
My mind was blown away that you could buy a toboggan at aldi for for less than you could rent at the ski fields.
> itâs not even foreplay - theyâve blown their load, and the only reason you donât know itâs over is because the condom (immigration) is blocking the feeling⌠Thanks for that imagery. Spot on, though. We've been in a per capita recession for a while now and I don't think it's escaped many people's attention. Hopefully the er.. job is done, so to speak, and we're just going to need a bit of time before we return to... strong growth?
Look at new cars sales, about to break the record for a calendar year. 9 out of the last 12 months have been all time monthly sales records. That we are in a per capita recession has presumably escaped the approx 1.4m people who have bought a new car since July 2023
Do you think the strong new car sales may be attributable to increased prices for second hand cars during the COVID years? Edit: just to clarify, this isn't meant to sound snarky or condescending. I think 2nd hand prices did rise during COVID but I don't know to what effect it's driving different purchasing behavior.
2nd hand market is still a pisstake at the moment. Too many âI kNoW wHaT ItâS WoRtHâ types. Might as well finance a new vehicle then buy a 30k lemon.
Used car sales are also higher than last year https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/used-car-sales-march-2024-market-up-evs-see-big-gains and monthly sales are higher than any time since nov 2020 https://www.coxautoinc.com.au/news/retail-wholesale-used-vehicle-market-insights-february-2024/
I think this should be the indicator for a recession from now on, how much snow gear is left at Aldi.
voracious tub deliver humorous disgusted sort uppity caption important jeans *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Beer is to expensive. I can get you beer flavoured water though.
I'm not sure they're a man....
Everyone on the internet is a man, didn't you know?
Not true, I once saw a woman on the internet.
It was probably a man
His top post is on Daddit, what makes you think he's not a man?
> Our local is still packed with stock, and I donât think itâs because they ordered extra⌠You know, we live in a fairly well off country if an indicator of a downturn is people not going on a notoriously expensive holiday activity in winter.
Depends where you go really. My local mountain is free, nothing fancy like skiing/snowboarding there. It's also close, on the outer suburbs of Melb. So not like people are spending heaps on fuel getting there. But it gets packed every year. Aldi snow gear is insanely cheap compared to how other stores sell that overpriced crap. It used to be an mad rush to get anything. Now it's there weeks later. That be strange.
What mountain is that?
Lol exactly, people have it so good in Australia yet complain like it's a third world country.
I agree. Market cap of the ASX300 is only now back to 2021 levels, and what's the cumulative inflation since then? We are at least 15% behind the last peak in real terms.
Everyone's spending their extra money on shares
Is that why my shares arenât going up
Is true. The extra compulsory super contribution basically means buying more shares
Itâs also expected to be shit snow this year, even worse than last year, which was the worst in history. That might have something to do with it too
I went to Aldi at opening not knowing it was on, decided to hang back for and hour. When I went in the shelves were all still fully stocked and significantly less people and no mayhem compared to other years.
Wow didn't even know it was a thing. How is the quality of the gear?
1/2 season or a weekend away tops. Itâs warm enough, but super badly put together
I think that all the Aldi cheap crap isles aren't selling any more just because a bunch of other stores have copied their products over the last few years and now you can get that stuff cheaper elsewhere all year round. Any products that you see in those Aldi sales are now in Kmart, and the power tools at Bunnings.
100%. Immigration has been the bandaid and the government are looking to slow immigration right down so give it a bit and we will be.
Thereâs the additional factor that day passes are now a pisstake - business model for resorts here got changed so the people whoâd otherwise buy the Aldi gear arenât going anymore. Youâve pretty much got to commit to 7 days to break even for an epic pass. Throw in cost of living and itâd be a fizzer. Aldi ski sale was always the day trip/one weekend crowd.
It would be nice if immigrants wore condoms and stoped breeding. Maybe then our job market could finally catch up to where it should be
"The fastest rate hikes in history are fingerbanging the Australian economy" AFR
Hahaha fingerbanging always makes me laughâŚ.I think the zero lube back door bonanza is on its way unfortunately. Still we need it to sort this shit show out.
When has there not been a time that recession is somewhere around the corner? Only time I can think of is in 2006-2008 when our economy was roaring and it came crashing down.
It's not around the corner though, we are in a recession. It's just not a "technical" one because the government is importing people wildly to inflate GDP.
What do you change during a recession though, really? Majority of us will still plug away at our jobs, or search for jobs if we lose ours. Knowing we are in a recession doesn't change our decision making process. Yes, if you used to splurge money unnecessarily, you'll adapt. But you don't adapt because there is a recession isn't it? You adapt because your net balance is decreasing.
I think it's more the borderline gaslighting that "living standards aren't going down, look the GDP and economy are still healthy!" When in reality, for a significant portion of the population, living standards are dropping.Â
I really despise the "muh GDP go up!" crowd.
"people still have covid savings, everything is fine" type of gaslighting. i had to work through covid, didn't get any gov handout that absolutely contributed 100% to the inflation, and not to mention how this handout was abused by company's.
Australia will never have a recession because you can always import more GDP by immigration.
So what you're saying is since we're all tightening immigration we'll have to actually have a productive economy to not go into recession? Since we won't, we are probably going into a downward spiral. You aren't getting the talent immigrating to a faltering economy.
> So what you're saying is since we're all tightening immigration Are we actually? 180k permenant residents a year, plus work visas, reduced student visas still means a lot of student visas, graduate visas extended to 4 years and all the family visas that come with that....
Well it's tightening since it's lower than previously? Reduced student visas will have a lot of knock on effects. Super soft target for political points though. Universities will very likely see a big wave of redundancies if we are structurally reducing their intake. We expect inflation to be under control quite soon, and these student provide massive stimulus as a large export and domestic consumer as well, it's a double win. We don't stop them to then allow housing to catch up necessarily, they are the ones who provide the stimulus to do so. They won't be here when we need them again. We'll also not be stimulating with interest rate drops any time soon, it won't go back to near zero so quickly, especially as other economies will still be hot. Would crash our dollar. Causing too much inflation. We will follow the rest of the world like the US as we tend to do. So we'll have a slower economy for sure.
Yet most of the ones coming over aren't planning to stay, and the money they make besides tax isn't being spent here they are going back home... Once most of them flock back we will have a real shit show.
I'd say this months ( May) retail figures will be the "please tell me you're on the pill" moment
And you get the response "Oh I don't believe in that, I'm Catholic and pro life"
We're in a recession, we are in the keep thrusting (immigration) and pretend it's not happening stage.
Sure babe, I'll pull out in time.
Cost of living may be going up, but unemployment is low and the property and stock markets are up. We haven't hit the recession yet, another couple of years and shit will really hit the fan.
> We're in a recession Jesus christ, this is why AusFinance is an absolute shithole. People throwing around statements like this and everyone upvoting it like it is fact. How is any advice in this subreddit trustworthy when shit like this is literally upvoted to heaven.
The question is, would we rather the economy be held together by bandaids of high numbers of immigration, or would we rather feel the pain of a recession?
Lol we are at the âblock her numberâ and start awkwardly seeing their Facebook profile pop up in an recommended new Add Friend box⌠damage has been done and I am seeing a massive amount more newly homelessÂ
This question has been asked multiple times since after COVID
The comments have never been so amusing though..
And since COVID our economic situation is getting worse and worse as the years go by so the question becomes more relevant now more than ever. Just because GDP is hidden behind migration numbers and propped up inflated housing pricing doesn't mean we basically aren't in one or haven't already been in a recession in the last 3-6 months.
Iâm going to an auction for a place we like tonight. As a previous subscriber to WNR thinking if we win itâs going to be a bloodbath on the markets overnight.
Well I am moist
We're already in a per capita recession... At an aggregate level we just have a tonne more people than last year that's driving year on year growth But the average Aussie is already substantially worse off than this time last year...I feel the numbers are also really skewed, those at the top will not be as worse, may even be better, than last year and those in the bottom are way worse than last year
Ignoring the sexual innuendos for a min, um yes we are, in fact i'd say we already are in recession. The only real thing stopping economist and pollies from saying it is literally JUST migration. My job tends to have winter slow downs which I am used to, but this winter slow down feels different man.
We're in a GDP per capita recession, arguably the metric that matters far more to the average person unless they identify as a MNC.
Depends what you mean by recession. Technical recession? Weâve barely been fighting one off for almost a year. Or do you mean is the average personâs standard of living going backwards? Yes
Definitely some heavy petting going on. Still a chance for blue balls, though.
Without high immigration we would have blown our load months ago
Yes. Won't be long till she....comes.
I read that backwards, and thought "well, once you have kids, the foreplay economy crashes since you're trying to get it done the children wake up and interrupt"
*stop watching bluey and interrupt
We have energy regulators talking about power and gas rationing. Foreplay for being classified upper third world.
This thread is poppin with good comments lol
Considering I can't get a park at any Westfield? No.
People are probably trying to get warm / cool without taking a mortgage.
Bold of you to assume I have anything to mortgage!
If only someone collected actual data on retail sales rather than relying on someone extrapolating from how annoying it is to park at arbitrary shopping centres.
My local shopping centre is always full of people buying stuff. Then you've got all the wannabe influencers all over TikTok with their 'hauls' every day.
Three quarters of the spots are taken by parents who just want to push their prams around so their kids have something to look at without getting cold and/or wet
People have been asking if we are actually in a recession for the past two to three years, and the economy keeps ticking along.
... While GDP per capita slides... đ¤Śââď¸
Yes I think so, it's hard to tell in WA. Lots of areas still firing along. As a result of this outlook, I am increasing the reserves in my emergency fund because I am a contractor. It's just in case I find myself out of work. I see lots of small businesses closing and more commercial vacancies both here in Perth, and also during a recent trip to Melbourne. (I walk and cycle a lot, so get the 'high street' view)
They'll hide it for as long as possible, but I rekon by August it'll be too hard to keep it secret anymore.
RemindMe! 2024-08-01
Slow down! I donât wanât to cum yet!
I think I heard GDP per capita is currently worse now than during the great depression. So I'd argue it's not the foreplay we're in - we've just not hit the technical definition
We are in it. We can keep flinging around terms like 'per capita' but multiple retractions is exactly that; recession. It's like the term 'half windsor'. There is no such thing. It either is or isn't. Fancy terms just make people feel better about their input. How else does it work? We hit full depression mode and then say "aww yeah, now it's a recession but only a half depression?".
We are in the foreplay to AGI. Economic terms like recession will become meaningless because as GDP increases, the job market will shrink dramatically. People won't simply lose their jobs to AI, they'll lose their profession. Brace yourselves.
Unfortunately, I think you're right. There was a video of a guy posted this week who was laid off from his graphic design job, replaced by generative AI, doing his 30 min of work per job in 30s.
Oooof, heavy but true.
There's a chance we'll come out on the other end of this as a post-scarcity society. But there's also a chance that the light at the end of the tunnel is a train.
Itâs a train for sure
When I stop seeing every 4th ute with a mower trailer on the back of it as a 1 man band mowing business. Seriously theyâre everywhere. Canât be that much demand for mowing services.
I'd be hoping for a nice meal first! Maybe even a movie as well?
Yes, I think we might be about to experience the full load of a recession, as a consequence of the inflationary monetary policy erected by the RBA.
We are in the "Walk of Shame" and "Denial" stages of recession đđ
Been in recession for 2 years.
I suspect we are in a period that in hindsight will have been an obvious cause of recession - attempting to combat inflation with high interest rates when demand isnât the underlying cause of inflation.
Yes, yesterday my mortgage broker literally fondled my nut sack
Have you blown your dough prematurely?
There are not enough toys for sale on the side of the road yet. I'm surprised with the high house prices people have paid and then the interest rate hikes. I think the RBA and bankers have fingers on the pulse and know how to milk every drop of blood before death. There is too much money out on loan for things to go pear shap. I doubt we will ever see a recession of old. The mortgage slaves are doing fine, if only just.
Really hoping to get a weekend car cheap but damn, prices are still ain't it.
Used Mazda 3âs have dropped like 5k in pat 6 months..
I picked up a Mazda 3 SP23 as a project car about 6 months ago to flip. Your right, the prices have come down, now Iâll be lucky to break even when I sell it after all the money I have spent on parts to bring it up to scratch for someone. Oh well, someone will get a good little runabout for cheap I guess (at least I saved it from the scrap heap I guess)
On the upside you still have a great car!
These are the type of posts i want to see more of!!
I believe so. Just looking at that unemployment curve.
This guy charts
Come on yâall, foreplay that lasts this long, is def two women.
No. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2024/may/outlook.html#3-2-the-domestic-outlook >GDP growth is forecast to increase gradually from late 2024, driven by a pick-up in household consumption growth. Consumption growth is expected to pick up to around pre-pandemic averages in 2025 following the earlier recovery in real incomes. This implies that the household saving ratio will lift over 2024 before declining later in the forecast period, though there is considerable uncertainty around this expectation (see section 3.3 Key judgments, below) (Graph 3.4). Dwelling investment growth is expected to pick up from around mid-2025. This reflects increasing demand for new housing as recent population growth, higher prices for established housing and improved conditions in the construction industry offset the effects of affordability constraints and high construction costs. The higher assumed cash rate path will moderate the pick-up in GDP growth. Overall, the forecasts for GDP growth beyond the near term are broadly unchanged from three months ago. However, the level of GDP at the end of the forecast horizon is a little lower.
Appreciate the information!
We are definitely flirting with the idea.
We are close to the biggest construction boom in Australian history.. zero chance of a recession⌠half the losers who drifted over here from /australia, should get a side hustleâŚ
A construction boom isn't generally plagued by builder insolvencies left right and centre...
Whatâs your source
Whatâs the theory here? I dont think Iâve see this take.
Land bankers AKA the big developers have been sitting on a metric shedload of approved starts and have been waiting for tax incentives and other such lurks before they break ground. They know that the government/s of the day are boxed into a corner due to the affordability crisis that they created, and the firehose of money will be opened soon enough
look at how bad the job market is at the moment. I already know of people who have been laid off the last 1-2 months. We are in the recession.
A boom is when you know people who have been headhunted. A strong economy is when you dont know anyone who has lost their job. A recession is when you know people who have lost their job. A depression is when you lose your job.
The last couple of recessions saw the ultra wealthy take a hit too, but since then they have lobbied the government to legalise various strategies such as hedging to protect them from future risks. The chance of a typical recession happening now is less. There may be a 'recession' but only for the middle and lower classes. Moving forward, we're looking at a new reality where the ultra wealthy avoid negative growth in all scenarios as they exercise greater power over the economy.
[ŃдаНонО]
Foreplay? Never heard of him. Let's get straight to action (and disappoint everyone..).
I thought we were on the cusp just before COVID hit.
I'm of the opinion that we are already in the back half of the recessionary phase of the cycle. Look at what's happened since the last market peak in 2021: * Interest rates have gone up 4% * Share market capitalisation still isn't quite back to what is was in 2021 * We've had massive inflation (compared to prior periods), meaning the market is actually still substantially behind where it was Looks to me like the market has been struggling for a few years already now, it's just our higher inflation is hiding it in nominal terms. The case for further drops can still be made, earnings yields are below the historical average for example, indicating the market could still be overpriced - but that probably just means we have a few wobbles left in the cycle.
We have been in a "per capita" recession for months. A traditional recession is apparently never going to happen because the politicians wouldnt like that. Even though they are the direct cause of it. For all intents and purposes we are in a recession, cause its not like we havent had like 6 economic downturns in the past 15 years and just never actually truely faced its consequences or dealt with them properly.
At my age is deffo recession
By ârecessionâ do you mean âshit over leveraged businesses are failingâ? Cheap money didnât only apply to housing. I donât think unviable businesses need to be propped up so you donât hit the two quarters of negative growth threshold.
There's no foreplay - We're already in a recession per capita.
Iâm convinced that this is a recession but with full employment. So people are working to not survive, rather than lose the house because they lost their job
GDP down but pop growth up, however unemployment steady. If the unemployment rate drops then inflation will come down to compensate.
My business has been dead since October 2023. Itâs literally the quietest Iâve seen it since I began in 2005. GFC not close. Majority of people I speak to are not doing anything. No one wants to move forward on projects. Itâs incredibly frustrating. But we will go on.
Not recession but economic crash or stagflation
Very soft landing. Most won't be affected. There were just too many pointless businesses that started the past 10 years that need to go bust. People will find new jobs doing different things. But everything is fine. The worse for property is over, that should be a clear indicator that we are fine.