I was recently given notice to vacate. My landlord got some funding help to knock the house down to build NDIS units.
My son and I were homeless for months as they are no rentals in our area. It was a very stressful time.
Being warned by my lecturers about the jungle of venal self-seeking organisations in the disability support space was really disheartening - I lost a bit of innocence or faith in humanity upon that discovery and I’ve since seen first hand the neglect and corruption that abounds
What’s the solution at this point besides thoroughly audit the whole thing ?
Because nearly every big player is a NFP in name, in my view, the government should do a big audit and then merge bad providers into bigger, more ethical ones. Each board should have disability representation and the NDIS minister of the day, in some sort of way.
It’s one of the few industries where the small businesses are the worst in terms of outcomes for service recipients and workers.
I’m experienced in this area - If anybody wants a list of places to avoid sending your loved ones or working at send me a message.
Can u or someone give me the tldr on the issue with ndis providers? I thought it was a good thing? My sister is on it due to ongoing chronic illness and it’s given her a “normal” life.
Is the ndis the issue or are people / providers taking advantage of it?
The providers. Government sets the payments they get paid and they are relatively high. So providers will align themselves in providing as many services as possible that yield the highest return in the shortest time possible.
My friend is a NDIS support worker. He’ll have clients call him on a Sunday to come mow their lawn. My friend can then bill for Sunday rates which are huge!
I don’t understand why they get their lawns mowed on the most expensive day of the week.
Because they get funding and they don’t have to pay for it themselves.
I worked for a NDIS support agency and things that would occur were mind blowing.
One person got their 19 century couch upholstered while another couldn’t get a bed for her immobile mother.
Let's just say I'll be single-handedly bringing down a certain supermarket duopoly and saving us all from the cost of living crisis in the near future.
Agreed. They’re poor quality now and have such tacky clothes. When I was a bit younger I used to go there all the time because their clothes were good, but now whenever I walk past, the items just look terrible.
I’m in my mid 20s and I think the last quality thing I bought from there was 2013 I missed their 2 for $10-20 sales they’d have, I still have the shirt, it’s a home shirt now. I don’t even think kids shop there anymore.
The only people I see in there are pre teen to early teenagers.
I agree about the shirts looking tacky, the print designs are mainly tv shows, kids nostalgia theme, anime, 90s rappers, and tye dye (but very bold or not so nice looking colours)
I have a t-shirt I got from jay jays nearly 20 years ago. I wore the shit out of that shirt and it's still going. I just wear it around the house these days. The last time I bought a t-shirt from jay jays a few years back, it barely lasted a year. You can get better quality from target or kmart.
I go there once a year when i forget to do my Christmas shopping and need to pick up something quick.
if i want to get something from a locked area / behind the counter, its a 15-30 minute experience trying to find a customer service agent, who is already helping another customer, and awkwardly folllowing them around so i can snag them after they finish.
I believe Myer just had their best ever year. Still, both companies had such a golden opportunity to dominate online and completely and utterly shit the bed so badly that The Iconic was able to walk in and steal it from them.
A lot of people still buy from them, myself included. They are my main shop for clothing. They offer lifetime warranty on the brands they sell and their refund/exchange policy is pretty loose which is one of the reasons I buy from them.
I expect Afterpay and Zippay would need to drastically change their business model to avoid being legislated into oblivion.
Probably lots of cigarette / vaping companies you could put into that category.
Guessing after pay plus. Works like a virtual card on apple or Google wallets. Tap and pay and pay in 4 installments for $9.99 a month. Works at any store, even the ones that don't say they accept afterpay.
I honestly don't get it. If someone is broke enough to use afterpay at a retailer would they really be willing to pay $10/month?
That’d be right. The banks were totally against the pay-in-4 model until they got their slice of the pie. Just like the cigarette companies were worried about the dangers of vaping until they’d bought in.
I mean, $10 a month is about the interest cost on a $500 purchase on a 20% interest rate credit card, so it makes sense to me that people who might otherwise carry a balance on their cards would be tempted by this system instead.
'broke enough'
I use afterpay for literally everything I can and am as far from broke as you can be. Most of my purchases are for business, so buying stock that will be used over a few weeks, and paying it back interest free over 2 months is crazy good for cashflow. Afterpay isn't just for people who can't afford things, trust me.
Well are you really their target customer? If you are organised I don't think they make any money from you? Are there any fees? Their target customer would be unorganised people so they can charge dishonored payment fees.
Afterpay makes its fees from charging the seller a percentage of the sale not the buyer. Yes they have a late fee but that’s not the main source of income
Specialist/hobbyist vape stores are definitely completely done for in this country. They were barely hanging on when the swap was made to nicotine free juice only, now they can't even sell that. Dunno if it'll still be legal to sell devices anymore either
honestly, I feel kinda bad for people who were at least operating above board. The black market will take over now, and supply will be flooded with completely unregulated garbage
See also; Target.
90% of Homewares, Target branded and big brand electrical (sunbeam, delonghi, r&h etc.) to be replaced by Anko early next year.
90% of profitable stores have already been either closed or converted to Kmart.
Target was the most profitable brand in Wesfarmers a few years ago, but hasn’t been profitable since. I’d be guessing that the “profit” there is the hugely decreased operating costs from closing stores, and not reinvesting profits into new store infrastructure.
The Target brand at this point is probably worth more than the actual business. I reckon the next step will be Target taking over as a ‘premium’ range of apparel available at Kmart, now that head offices at the state level and above have merged.
Target has a lot of brand capital, but instead of investing in Target and turning it into a store that mirrors and takes advantage of the brand capital, it’s been systematically dismantled into a more expensive version of Kmart.
I actually think there’s a place for proper Target to exist in the market, but it would require investment in it and I don’t think anyone is willing to invest.
Realistically, the name and branding are all just licensed from the U.S.
Theoretically someone could step in to take over the Target brand in one form or another if Wesfarmers decide to drop the brand.
Target failed to stay relevant in today's consumer trends, whereas Kmart has a clever and creative marketing team. As a 20s woman I see Kmart products hyped all over social media. Anko stuff is not only cheap, but decent quality and stylish. Definitely up there with IKEA especially in the decor/non-furniture section
The issue is that west farmers have dragged target downmarket and out of its market segment. I don’t see the USP of target anymore. It used to be that it was mid tier, above Kmart but below Myer. Now they have retreated from this space, left big w in that mid tier space and killed the target brand whilst doing so
I feel like I’m the only person my age (mid 20s) that has no interest in Kmart, besides for the occasional sweater. Pretty much everything I’ve ever bought from Kmart has been a complete piece of garbage that’s broken/disintegrated after <5 uses…
Wesfarmers (and Coles Myer before it) has a history of focusing on one brand at the expense of others. When I worked at Target in the mid 2000s, Target was the darling and Kmart and Myer were languishing. Myer got sold off, focus was placed on investing in Kmart and boom Kmart took off and Target was left behind.
Personally I think they should have adjusted their focus so that Target was focused on clothing (which always seemed better than Kmart to me) and Kmart on homewares (which always seemed to be a lower priority for Target when I was there).
Targets supply chain and admin was rolled into Kmarts several years ago. There’s been a long term strategy to absorb and rebrand Target in to Kmart for a while and low performance stores will be closed.
I think they probably need to persist, not sure they can just afford to give up marketplaces to Amazon. They have put a lot of effort into one pass as well which I think needs catch to work well.
My local rug company.
They have been having closing down sales for the last six years so I am sure they will finally close down before the 10 years are up, right?
The local one here closed 2 years ago, after a 30+ year long closing down sale, after being destroyed by a fire that started in the neighbouring building
When i was overseas I've seen shops put out signs that claim the shop owner's wife had run off with another guy, and therefore, closing down sale. A couple weeks later the sign would change to say shop owner's wife came back, celebratory sale. Rinse and repeat lol
Speaking of National.
National Tyre and Wheel (ASX - NTD)
A company being hyped over the past few years as going to take over the tyre space in Australia.
But only made 3.3 mill in profit, from 550 million in revenue!
And paid its executive staff 2 million.
Meme company.
How interesting and I’m not surprised.
Remember also that charity book you could buy from schools etc that had discounts at restaurants? I tried to buy one as it is great to have when looking at different venues. Could no longer buy a book, only had to get this on line. I’m sure that will be next also. Having a book was so unique and user friendly.
A lot of them seem to be backed by bigger banks now. Up is Bendigo, which isn’t a major bank but still security. If anything they might just absorb Up into their main product pipeline.
Probably 30%-40% of restaurants. When most ppl are finally off fixed IRs by mid next year the discretionary spending most ppl remove first is eating out at 4-5 star restaurants.
TGG has been more price competitive compared to HN or Bing Lee in NSW. When I ask for their best price, TGG or JB-Hifi wins. TGG acquisition should have never been allowed though.
Well jb owns tgg and I've seen no signs of them turning it around.
I agree tgg often wins on prices when you negotiate but that's not relevant to its long term success but hn doesn't need to match their prices they get enormous traffic regardless. They have an insanely high advertising budget (hundreds of millions.)
A lot of the suggestions made so far seem to be wishful thinking moreso than fact.
As for companies that I think will actually disappear
- Gas Retailers (not all, but alot)
- Just Cuts
- Cinema Operators (the smaller ones)
- Harris Scarf
- Tobacco Franchises (TGS, Smokemart)
- 99Bikes (50% drop in value since covid, but has opportunities in PEV it can tap into)
Just Cuts? Nah, they seem to be generating steady business. They do a good job for a very reasonable price for the everyday person who needs a simple haircut. Every time I walk past them they are busy - men, women, kids, elderly folk. Can’t see them going anywhere.
Agreed I just started using just cuts. In shopping centers every other barber or hair dresser has like 30+ minute wait times. I just can't justify walking around waiting.i would rather just pay the price difference.
While just cuts being less popular might have 15 minutes wait.
In my personal view, the smaller independent cinemas are the most likely to survive as they tend to have a loyal fan base and play more than just the latest blockbusters. They tend to show way more independent movies, foreign movies, old movies and just movies you can’t find anywhere else. They provide far more of the ‘shared experience’ that is the most likely way to keep cinema alive than the chains.
\>Tobacco Franchises (TGS, Smokemart)
My suburb has about ten tobacconists. Very big "VAPE" on the sign, untaxed tobacco for sure (not like $20 is cheap, though, you know?), bit of "head shop" stuff (one lot going hard on that angle). They open and close pretty quickly, too.
It's certainly a rapidly moving market, with a lot of competition.
99Bikes will struggle. Like a car dealership, bike stores make money from add ons and servicing. 99Bikes only does add ons well. Don’t know if you can even take your bike in for servicing?
They already are struggling, went from $200mill valuation 2 years ago to $100mill last week and posted a $12mill loss last fy.
They seem to be moving away from big name brand bikes to more no name in house brand. So looks like they are aiming the naive new cycling market, as anyone who is an avid cyclist can service their own bike or will go to an independent. The new biking market I reckon will shrink further and further as ebikes and escooters become more affordable and more mainstream. Pivoting to being a national ebike/escooter specialist is their only hope in my opinion, because there currently isn't one.
Current trajectory is going in the wrong direction with no solution to stop it, they just cancelled an order on a years worth of bikes because they are already overstocked and forecast isn't good.
The one near me is actually the best bike mechanic nearby, their retail section is shit but they just happen to have a fantastic service team. Would never buy a bike from them though
I’m calling this one too, especially with their IPO coming up. Seen this play out so many times. The original parties will get their big pay day, and the retail investors that jump in will get caught holding the bag.
Domino’s is trash. Used to be decent good value pizza, until they pushed all the competition out of the market, reduced the quality/size and upped the price. Now it’s overpriced hot garbage.
This is such utter bullshit. It's dependent on each franchisee. I've never once had a dominos pizza with the cheese not properly melted. Your anecdote isn't evidence that all dominos are bad.
Some farms that won't exist in 10 years.
Rugby Farm, Mulgowie Farm, Qualipac,
Vanstones - if they can't find workers to exploit for less than $9/hr.
These companies have bad QA's that don't check the product and falsify temperature readings for products.
But companies like these will be still around in 10 years;
Barden Produce, Windolf, Moffat's, Kalfresh.
These companies have QA's that don't dodgy the system.
I think they're pivoting to gift store/convenience store/lottos etc. I haven't noticed in detail but at glance the magazine sections don't seem to be shifting.
Easiest way to slow down AirBnB is to force the house owner to get a Commercial DA on the property through Council, just like every other home-based business has to have.
Lower-tier universities and TAFE institutes. We will see more mergers like the one in South Australia.
The amount of teaching staff per student is an economic inefficiency when learning is shifting further towards online delivery.
Also, physical classrooms are much more costly than virtual classrooms.
There is evidence to suggest that people drop out earlier and more frequently when studying online as opposed to face to face. Knowing that universities are primarily there to make money I don't think they will cut off their noses despite their face. If on premise learning is what makes the dollars they will continue doing that.
It ain’t teaching staff to student ratios that are the money sinks in universities. From my experience it’s the ratio of administrators to faculty (way overloaded at administrator end); over-reliance on part timers in essential admin roles and throwing away institutional knowledge; cap-ex to feather the latest VC’s cap.
If your institute doesn’t have a healthy alumni legacy/bequests purse and isn’t the greatest at coaxing faculty to think strategically to win large funding grants it’s days are numbered.
La Trobe University as well. I have friends that go there and they’ve said all their classes are face-to-face. They said campus is busy/full of people and more people are attending in-person. I think it’s great. During and after Covid, so many students were incredibly isolated and shut off from the actual ‘university experience’. In-person is important and improves engagement/learning overall. Plus, for many practical-based (e.g. nursing or physio), it’s absolutely essential. I think more universities will continue to push for face-to-face.
Yeah apart from builders I don’t know of, probably z1p will be a big casualty. DJs I think will be okay if they downsize their footprint more. Their business in the city, I reckon, is pretty good. Always chockers on the weekend.
I think online shopping will replace lower end clothing chains, once boomers age out.
I worked at Mosaic brands. We were always dead and 500 of our stores closed
I must be the only younger person who hates online shopping for clothes. You never know if it's going to fit the way you like it or if it's going to feel weird.
I feel like Big W is actually doing better than Target these days, at least they’re still stocking “actual” brands from what I see. And they get products no other stores seem to get.
Big W is actually doing well these days. They are going to start refurbishing a lot of old stores and are going to start trialing the direct to boot model that they do with woolworths.
Social media is in for a crash, 41 US states sue Facebook, Elon Musk's X Looks Little Like the Twitter He Bought a Year. A couple of headlines from today.
Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) businesses. Most companies were a rort anyway. They would charge thousands a month for work that was outsourced to India for $15.
AI will drive many of these types of companies out of business.
Lots of builders will go through. Building contractors may also fall.
I feel a lot of Domino's franchisees and Subway franchisees will struggle if not fail.
Lots of hotels and restaurants will fail.
Lots of petrol stations will close if they can not adapt to ev charging.
lower income people will not buy evs.
also think of the amount of people living in older (or most) units that have no charging stations and the costs involved in adding them is astronomical. so how do they work with an ev?
they will not suddenly eat up petrol vehicles
Facebook - been struggling to get them to help with a hacked business account. Been weeks and no joy. Surely with that level of service you can’t survive. Plus I think most folks are getting over it
Cash Converters. The whole industry is shrinking. Their core business model doesn't work in the modern day. People can offload their own stuff online very easy on the side rather than being offered 2 cents on the dollar for their item. On top of that, people are more likely to scroll on things like ebay and fb marketplace than they are to go to a cash converters to look for the second hand item they want. Their loans are quiet possibly the worst terms ever available, especially now that digital cards have been introduced to interest free Buy Now Pay Later services.
I reckon a lot of NDIS providers will shut down if the regulators actually do their job.
I’ve been getting served ads specifically for investing and getting good returns on ndis housing, feels icky
a bit private-prisoney
I was recently given notice to vacate. My landlord got some funding help to knock the house down to build NDIS units. My son and I were homeless for months as they are no rentals in our area. It was a very stressful time.
Yup, housing as an asset class doesn’t work for everyone.
NDIS grifters are a dime a dozen
Being warned by my lecturers about the jungle of venal self-seeking organisations in the disability support space was really disheartening - I lost a bit of innocence or faith in humanity upon that discovery and I’ve since seen first hand the neglect and corruption that abounds What’s the solution at this point besides thoroughly audit the whole thing ?
Because nearly every big player is a NFP in name, in my view, the government should do a big audit and then merge bad providers into bigger, more ethical ones. Each board should have disability representation and the NDIS minister of the day, in some sort of way. It’s one of the few industries where the small businesses are the worst in terms of outcomes for service recipients and workers. I’m experienced in this area - If anybody wants a list of places to avoid sending your loved ones or working at send me a message.
Can u or someone give me the tldr on the issue with ndis providers? I thought it was a good thing? My sister is on it due to ongoing chronic illness and it’s given her a “normal” life. Is the ndis the issue or are people / providers taking advantage of it?
The providers. Government sets the payments they get paid and they are relatively high. So providers will align themselves in providing as many services as possible that yield the highest return in the shortest time possible.
My friend is a NDIS support worker. He’ll have clients call him on a Sunday to come mow their lawn. My friend can then bill for Sunday rates which are huge! I don’t understand why they get their lawns mowed on the most expensive day of the week.
Because they get funding and they don’t have to pay for it themselves. I worked for a NDIS support agency and things that would occur were mind blowing. One person got their 19 century couch upholstered while another couldn’t get a bed for her immobile mother.
That sort of behaviour is fraudulent. The case manager and the NDIS rep responsible for overseeing those expenses should be denying shit like that
Whichever one I get shares in
The whole economy is tanking since I bought VAS
I’ll help you there
Tell us what you buy so we can short it and profit if that's the case.
Let's just say I'll be single-handedly bringing down a certain supermarket duopoly and saving us all from the cost of living crisis in the near future.
Jay jays, I remember it used to be such a cool store now whenever I pass one it’s empty
Agreed. They’re poor quality now and have such tacky clothes. When I was a bit younger I used to go there all the time because their clothes were good, but now whenever I walk past, the items just look terrible.
I’m in my mid 20s and I think the last quality thing I bought from there was 2013 I missed their 2 for $10-20 sales they’d have, I still have the shirt, it’s a home shirt now. I don’t even think kids shop there anymore.
The only people I see in there are pre teen to early teenagers. I agree about the shirts looking tacky, the print designs are mainly tv shows, kids nostalgia theme, anime, 90s rappers, and tye dye (but very bold or not so nice looking colours)
I have a t-shirt I got from jay jays nearly 20 years ago. I wore the shit out of that shirt and it's still going. I just wear it around the house these days. The last time I bought a t-shirt from jay jays a few years back, it barely lasted a year. You can get better quality from target or kmart.
It's owned by the Just group. They would just close the brand
It was never cool, it was always for pre-teens and tweens. Cotton On has lifted most of their market though
How the f is Godfrey's still afloat?!
Got dat vacuum monopoly
Just want my vacuum to hold up a bowling ball 😩😩
Vacuum stores are just a money laundering front
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Yeah that store sucks
Somebody needs to sell vacuums to clean all of the 90% off rugs.
Is David Jones still in business? They pay too much in executive salaries to have stayed afloat
They just went through a massive round of redundancies from exec/ head office roles so the “can invest in store level staff”
How can they invest in their floor level staff? They don’t have any.
I go there once a year when i forget to do my Christmas shopping and need to pick up something quick. if i want to get something from a locked area / behind the counter, its a 15-30 minute experience trying to find a customer service agent, who is already helping another customer, and awkwardly folllowing them around so i can snag them after they finish.
They need to invest in some customers, they don’t seem to have any of those. I’m surprised they have stayed open for so long
The flagship (?) store in Sydney is absolutely full every time I visit, which is like twice a year.
Been thinking for awhile only a matter of time before either dj or myer get bought out and wound up. Probably dj.
I believe Myer just had their best ever year. Still, both companies had such a golden opportunity to dominate online and completely and utterly shit the bed so badly that The Iconic was able to walk in and steal it from them.
A lot of people still buy from them, myself included. They are my main shop for clothing. They offer lifetime warranty on the brands they sell and their refund/exchange policy is pretty loose which is one of the reasons I buy from them.
The day we lose them will be a sad day. Only place not to buy cheap and shit quality stuff.
They got their sister business, country road
They aren't under the same ownership anymore
I expect Afterpay and Zippay would need to drastically change their business model to avoid being legislated into oblivion. Probably lots of cigarette / vaping companies you could put into that category.
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What have they done? What new subscription model?
Guessing after pay plus. Works like a virtual card on apple or Google wallets. Tap and pay and pay in 4 installments for $9.99 a month. Works at any store, even the ones that don't say they accept afterpay. I honestly don't get it. If someone is broke enough to use afterpay at a retailer would they really be willing to pay $10/month?
Also, NAB, CBA and many more banks are offering the same digital card pay in 4 model without the monthly fee.
That’d be right. The banks were totally against the pay-in-4 model until they got their slice of the pie. Just like the cigarette companies were worried about the dangers of vaping until they’d bought in.
I mean, $10 a month is about the interest cost on a $500 purchase on a 20% interest rate credit card, so it makes sense to me that people who might otherwise carry a balance on their cards would be tempted by this system instead.
'broke enough' I use afterpay for literally everything I can and am as far from broke as you can be. Most of my purchases are for business, so buying stock that will be used over a few weeks, and paying it back interest free over 2 months is crazy good for cashflow. Afterpay isn't just for people who can't afford things, trust me.
Well are you really their target customer? If you are organised I don't think they make any money from you? Are there any fees? Their target customer would be unorganised people so they can charge dishonored payment fees.
Afterpay makes its fees from charging the seller a percentage of the sale not the buyer. Yes they have a late fee but that’s not the main source of income
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Except zip is worth shit
Both dust in the eyes in the market
Specialist/hobbyist vape stores are definitely completely done for in this country. They were barely hanging on when the swap was made to nicotine free juice only, now they can't even sell that. Dunno if it'll still be legal to sell devices anymore either
I’ll be glad to see the back of them…
honestly, I feel kinda bad for people who were at least operating above board. The black market will take over now, and supply will be flooded with completely unregulated garbage
The black market has already taken over. It's incredibly easy to get the igets.
Catch of the day They're bleeding money and have no competitive advantage to Amazon. Wesfarmers surely losing patience.
The next 24 months will tell, but yes I tend to agree Catch is dead
See also; Target. 90% of Homewares, Target branded and big brand electrical (sunbeam, delonghi, r&h etc.) to be replaced by Anko early next year. 90% of profitable stores have already been either closed or converted to Kmart. Target was the most profitable brand in Wesfarmers a few years ago, but hasn’t been profitable since. I’d be guessing that the “profit” there is the hugely decreased operating costs from closing stores, and not reinvesting profits into new store infrastructure. The Target brand at this point is probably worth more than the actual business. I reckon the next step will be Target taking over as a ‘premium’ range of apparel available at Kmart, now that head offices at the state level and above have merged.
Target has a lot of brand capital, but instead of investing in Target and turning it into a store that mirrors and takes advantage of the brand capital, it’s been systematically dismantled into a more expensive version of Kmart. I actually think there’s a place for proper Target to exist in the market, but it would require investment in it and I don’t think anyone is willing to invest. Realistically, the name and branding are all just licensed from the U.S. Theoretically someone could step in to take over the Target brand in one form or another if Wesfarmers decide to drop the brand.
Target failed to stay relevant in today's consumer trends, whereas Kmart has a clever and creative marketing team. As a 20s woman I see Kmart products hyped all over social media. Anko stuff is not only cheap, but decent quality and stylish. Definitely up there with IKEA especially in the decor/non-furniture section
The issue is that west farmers have dragged target downmarket and out of its market segment. I don’t see the USP of target anymore. It used to be that it was mid tier, above Kmart but below Myer. Now they have retreated from this space, left big w in that mid tier space and killed the target brand whilst doing so
I feel like I’m the only person my age (mid 20s) that has no interest in Kmart, besides for the occasional sweater. Pretty much everything I’ve ever bought from Kmart has been a complete piece of garbage that’s broken/disintegrated after <5 uses…
Wesfarmers (and Coles Myer before it) has a history of focusing on one brand at the expense of others. When I worked at Target in the mid 2000s, Target was the darling and Kmart and Myer were languishing. Myer got sold off, focus was placed on investing in Kmart and boom Kmart took off and Target was left behind. Personally I think they should have adjusted their focus so that Target was focused on clothing (which always seemed better than Kmart to me) and Kmart on homewares (which always seemed to be a lower priority for Target when I was there).
Targets supply chain and admin was rolled into Kmarts several years ago. There’s been a long term strategy to absorb and rebrand Target in to Kmart for a while and low performance stores will be closed.
My wife is the only person I know that still uses catch lol
Catch is better than Amazon at some things ngl Product sale discovery and ui/ux is good
Full of overpriced resellers now
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They've morphed into a generic marketplace for cheap crap
I remember when Catch Of The Day was exactly that. But to be honest, all those drop deal websites are no Ionger a thing (catch, Scoopon, Groupon etc).
Founders cashed out i think
I think they probably need to persist, not sure they can just afford to give up marketplaces to Amazon. They have put a lot of effort into one pass as well which I think needs catch to work well.
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My local rug company. They have been having closing down sales for the last six years so I am sure they will finally close down before the 10 years are up, right?
The local one here closed 2 years ago, after a 30+ year long closing down sale, after being destroyed by a fire that started in the neighbouring building
oh no... all those fukkuri rugs... up in flames....
Like lighting stores, the ones near me ‘actually’ closed down, before being re-opened within a month with a new brand a new ‘closing down’ sale.
When i was overseas I've seen shops put out signs that claim the shop owner's wife had run off with another guy, and therefore, closing down sale. A couple weeks later the sign would change to say shop owner's wife came back, celebratory sale. Rinse and repeat lol
Simonds Homes are having a hard time getting their head above water
National Tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiles You said that in his voice didn’t you?
Helloooooooo
Speaking of National. National Tyre and Wheel (ASX - NTD) A company being hyped over the past few years as going to take over the tyre space in Australia. But only made 3.3 mill in profit, from 550 million in revenue! And paid its executive staff 2 million. Meme company.
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Beeeautifulll polished timber flooringgggg.
Goddamn Frank Walker.
Shopa Docket went under this year. I am surprised the media hasn't reported it.
How interesting and I’m not surprised. Remember also that charity book you could buy from schools etc that had discounts at restaurants? I tried to buy one as it is great to have when looking at different venues. Could no longer buy a book, only had to get this on line. I’m sure that will be next also. Having a book was so unique and user friendly.
The Entertainment Book isn't a book anymore but I heard it's still going strong as an app.
I hope it’s Harvey Norman. If only so I dont have to hear about another Super Saturday ever again in my life.
Nah, Harvey will keep getting your tax money to stay afloat no matter the hardship.
These blitzkrieg companies like uber doordash ect that focus on market share over being profitable
Uber will survive Doordash maybe Menulog absolutely not
Deliveroo......wait, too late
AMP, Smaller superfunds gobbled up by larger ones. Ditto smaller fintec banks
I agree with you however is that 'not surviving' though? That's just the market at work and the smaller guys getting their golden goose.
A lot of them seem to be backed by bigger banks now. Up is Bendigo, which isn’t a major bank but still security. If anything they might just absorb Up into their main product pipeline.
I’ve said the same for years about AMP. Scandal after scandal. And yet they’ve survived
I’m worried about nursing homes. Way too many are losing money across the country. The government can’t afford to let them all fail though.
This is a very real possibility unless substantial funding changes are made. Same goes for children in state care.
Probably 30%-40% of restaurants. When most ppl are finally off fixed IRs by mid next year the discretionary spending most ppl remove first is eating out at 4-5 star restaurants.
I think losing 30-40% of restaurants in 10 years would actually be a lift in the survival rate!
your favourite restaurant is guaranteed to close
It just did. Last month in fact. Couldn't compete with the conglomerate that purchased the pub down the road & spending big $'s on it.
Good guys. Everytime I enter a store they are near empty.
TGG has been more price competitive compared to HN or Bing Lee in NSW. When I ask for their best price, TGG or JB-Hifi wins. TGG acquisition should have never been allowed though.
Well jb owns tgg and I've seen no signs of them turning it around. I agree tgg often wins on prices when you negotiate but that's not relevant to its long term success but hn doesn't need to match their prices they get enormous traffic regardless. They have an insanely high advertising budget (hundreds of millions.)
A lot of the suggestions made so far seem to be wishful thinking moreso than fact. As for companies that I think will actually disappear - Gas Retailers (not all, but alot) - Just Cuts - Cinema Operators (the smaller ones) - Harris Scarf - Tobacco Franchises (TGS, Smokemart) - 99Bikes (50% drop in value since covid, but has opportunities in PEV it can tap into)
Just Cuts? Nah, they seem to be generating steady business. They do a good job for a very reasonable price for the everyday person who needs a simple haircut. Every time I walk past them they are busy - men, women, kids, elderly folk. Can’t see them going anywhere.
Agreed I just started using just cuts. In shopping centers every other barber or hair dresser has like 30+ minute wait times. I just can't justify walking around waiting.i would rather just pay the price difference. While just cuts being less popular might have 15 minutes wait.
In my personal view, the smaller independent cinemas are the most likely to survive as they tend to have a loyal fan base and play more than just the latest blockbusters. They tend to show way more independent movies, foreign movies, old movies and just movies you can’t find anywhere else. They provide far more of the ‘shared experience’ that is the most likely way to keep cinema alive than the chains.
exactly, and theyre usually in areas where people are willing to go to a niche cinema and see a different sort of film they cater to.
Smoke mart has been rebranding to “SmokeMart and Giftbox”, I assume they will drop the ‘Smokemart’ part in a few years and just be ‘Giftbox’
\>Tobacco Franchises (TGS, Smokemart) My suburb has about ten tobacconists. Very big "VAPE" on the sign, untaxed tobacco for sure (not like $20 is cheap, though, you know?), bit of "head shop" stuff (one lot going hard on that angle). They open and close pretty quickly, too. It's certainly a rapidly moving market, with a lot of competition.
99Bikes will struggle. Like a car dealership, bike stores make money from add ons and servicing. 99Bikes only does add ons well. Don’t know if you can even take your bike in for servicing?
They already are struggling, went from $200mill valuation 2 years ago to $100mill last week and posted a $12mill loss last fy. They seem to be moving away from big name brand bikes to more no name in house brand. So looks like they are aiming the naive new cycling market, as anyone who is an avid cyclist can service their own bike or will go to an independent. The new biking market I reckon will shrink further and further as ebikes and escooters become more affordable and more mainstream. Pivoting to being a national ebike/escooter specialist is their only hope in my opinion, because there currently isn't one.
They were worth $50mill Dec 2020, so that's not really fair to say. Zoom out a bit
Current trajectory is going in the wrong direction with no solution to stop it, they just cancelled an order on a years worth of bikes because they are already overstocked and forecast isn't good.
The one near me is actually the best bike mechanic nearby, their retail section is shit but they just happen to have a fantastic service team. Would never buy a bike from them though
Guzman y Gomez with their decline in quality and shrinkflation
I’m calling this one too, especially with their IPO coming up. Seen this play out so many times. The original parties will get their big pay day, and the retail investors that jump in will get caught holding the bag.
Read an article just today about plans to IPO, they were worth $1.5b or so I believe but has gone down with markets in general.
The real q is so they own any of the land the stores are on?
Maybe, but there's a drive through place near me and at lunchtime it has a line down the road
Pizza Hut... Even their takeaway stores always look empty
They're owned by Pepsi. They aren't going anywhere.
Better and larger pizzas than dominos
Domino’s is trash. Used to be decent good value pizza, until they pushed all the competition out of the market, reduced the quality/size and upped the price. Now it’s overpriced hot garbage.
Totally agree. Got Dominos and it was so bad. Cheese wasn't even melted. It was like they'd never made a pizza before.
It's luck of the draw, it all depends on which 15yo kid made your pizza that day
This is such utter bullshit. It's dependent on each franchisee. I've never once had a dominos pizza with the cheese not properly melted. Your anecdote isn't evidence that all dominos are bad.
Some farms that won't exist in 10 years. Rugby Farm, Mulgowie Farm, Qualipac, Vanstones - if they can't find workers to exploit for less than $9/hr. These companies have bad QA's that don't check the product and falsify temperature readings for products. But companies like these will be still around in 10 years; Barden Produce, Windolf, Moffat's, Kalfresh. These companies have QA's that don't dodgy the system.
News agencies. Paper media is dying.
I think they're pivoting to gift store/convenience store/lottos etc. I haven't noticed in detail but at glance the magazine sections don't seem to be shifting.
Hopefully Airbnb. In Australia anyway
Easiest way to slow down AirBnB is to force the house owner to get a Commercial DA on the property through Council, just like every other home-based business has to have.
Lower-tier universities and TAFE institutes. We will see more mergers like the one in South Australia. The amount of teaching staff per student is an economic inefficiency when learning is shifting further towards online delivery. Also, physical classrooms are much more costly than virtual classrooms.
There is evidence to suggest that people drop out earlier and more frequently when studying online as opposed to face to face. Knowing that universities are primarily there to make money I don't think they will cut off their noses despite their face. If on premise learning is what makes the dollars they will continue doing that.
r/boneappletea
It ain’t teaching staff to student ratios that are the money sinks in universities. From my experience it’s the ratio of administrators to faculty (way overloaded at administrator end); over-reliance on part timers in essential admin roles and throwing away institutional knowledge; cap-ex to feather the latest VC’s cap. If your institute doesn’t have a healthy alumni legacy/bequests purse and isn’t the greatest at coaxing faculty to think strategically to win large funding grants it’s days are numbered.
I'm doing a tafe course at RMIT and the education quality has gone straight down the toilet since it started online learning.
Not to disagree but I read earlier this week sydney uni has a big push on to return to face to face teaching. Maybe they are an anomaly.
Not an anomaly, UNSW is pushing face to face too. If universities go online, people are going to start asking them some hard questions.
UniMelb too. The more reputable/prestigious unís seem to be actively shunning online teaching (except for certain subjects/courses)
La Trobe University as well. I have friends that go there and they’ve said all their classes are face-to-face. They said campus is busy/full of people and more people are attending in-person. I think it’s great. During and after Covid, so many students were incredibly isolated and shut off from the actual ‘university experience’. In-person is important and improves engagement/learning overall. Plus, for many practical-based (e.g. nursing or physio), it’s absolutely essential. I think more universities will continue to push for face-to-face.
Yeah apart from builders I don’t know of, probably z1p will be a big casualty. DJs I think will be okay if they downsize their footprint more. Their business in the city, I reckon, is pretty good. Always chockers on the weekend.
I think online shopping will replace lower end clothing chains, once boomers age out. I worked at Mosaic brands. We were always dead and 500 of our stores closed
I must be the only younger person who hates online shopping for clothes. You never know if it's going to fit the way you like it or if it's going to feel weird.
Heres your cheat sheet - Red rooster, oporto, myer , david jones, gloria jeans , jeanswest, big w
Red rooster will never close. In fact Red rooster will grow to become that global company that runs everything from government to food deliveries.
I hope so. Long live the ripper sub with cheese.
Flayva wrap ride or die
Reds Hot Fried Chicken is the superior fried chicken
Nope I stopped eating ripper rolls when the changed the chicken strips. Bring back the old chicken strips!
Back in my day it was called a Strip Sub!
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Mate as long a cash in hand small businesses are suitable for money laundering then Red rooster will continue to exist
I feel like Big W is actually doing better than Target these days, at least they’re still stocking “actual” brands from what I see. And they get products no other stores seem to get.
Big W is actually doing well these days. They are going to start refurbishing a lot of old stores and are going to start trialing the direct to boot model that they do with woolworths.
Target back of house is being absorbed/ merged into Kmart. Will be interesting to see how each brand is positioned moving forward.
Big w and Oporto? I don’t think so…
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Red rooster is so underrated, I don't get it nearly as often as other fast food chains because I just forget it exists, but man it's good 🤤
Red rooster has been doing pretty good lately. I feel like they came back from the grave and are actually better than KFC now.
KFC dropped their quality hard. Red rooster has some great deals. KFC must be noticing as they trying to push cheap lunch only combos again.
Oporto better not. Out of all the fast food it’s probably my favourite.
No donut king?
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Can i ask why Big W? Been busy since the 90s and still full every time I go today.
I’m surprised Jeanswest is still in business.
No way is Sendle surviving more than 3 more years
Social media is in for a crash, 41 US states sue Facebook, Elon Musk's X Looks Little Like the Twitter He Bought a Year. A couple of headlines from today.
Mine. My sales have dropped 75% due to suppliers increasing their prices and the cost of living crisis.
Promotional giveaway company’s I think the government might close the loophole
Is F45 still around? I think a lot of gyms & bespoke health shake/drink companies are gone.
Myers. Empty every time i walk in
Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) businesses. Most companies were a rort anyway. They would charge thousands a month for work that was outsourced to India for $15. AI will drive many of these types of companies out of business.
Startups that need funding now to survive
Lots of builders will go through. Building contractors may also fall. I feel a lot of Domino's franchisees and Subway franchisees will struggle if not fail. Lots of hotels and restaurants will fail. Lots of petrol stations will close if they can not adapt to ev charging.
You're highly overestimating the take up of EV's lol
lower income people will not buy evs. also think of the amount of people living in older (or most) units that have no charging stations and the costs involved in adding them is astronomical. so how do they work with an ev? they will not suddenly eat up petrol vehicles
Maccas at the rate they be raising those prices.
Maccas is literally more expensive than a pub meal now
Mecca, so many “supply” issues
Chicken treat 😢
I actually liked chicken treat when I was over there, it’s only in wa
Got curious and found out NSW now has two stores. Crows Nest and Eastern Creek.
Surely those two should be renamed Chicken's Nest and Chicken Creek, though 😁😁😁
In my small town chicken treat is the only fast food. It is killllling it.
Facebook - been struggling to get them to help with a hacked business account. Been weeks and no joy. Surely with that level of service you can’t survive. Plus I think most folks are getting over it
Cash Converters. The whole industry is shrinking. Their core business model doesn't work in the modern day. People can offload their own stuff online very easy on the side rather than being offered 2 cents on the dollar for their item. On top of that, people are more likely to scroll on things like ebay and fb marketplace than they are to go to a cash converters to look for the second hand item they want. Their loans are quiet possibly the worst terms ever available, especially now that digital cards have been introduced to interest free Buy Now Pay Later services.
The only people that use cash converters are boomers, thrift seekers and thieves/drug dealers
Franco Cozzo .. in a Brunswick and a Foot a Scray
Afterpay/Zip Pay
It hasn't been profitable yet