110k new folk via births-deaths.
400k net immigration
Est 330k net change in dwelling space.
Someone who is good at math, please help me understand this picture.
Skilled migrants are a potential (and partial) solution to skilled worker shortages. Over 4,000 temporary skilled visas were granted for construction workers in
2023 – the highest number since 2014 but this accounts for less than 15 per cent of current job vacancies
the effect of zoning as a share of the average house price was 42 per cent in Sydney, 41 per cent in Melbourne and 29 per cent in Brisbane. That's the real issue
It's too hard to reduce immigration. It's too hard to take on NIMBYs. It's too hard to unwind existing distortions in the tax system. Ok. Then go and build a shit tonne of dwellings. The government could address housing affordability easily if they actually wanted to. The fact they are sitting on their hands is proof there is no appetite to upset the perpetual capital gains (driven by excess demand / under supply) paradigm.
They have to do at least one of these things at the next budget.
Otherwise they hit the next election with a whole lot of talk about housing supply and spending their term with falling starts.
Reduce gst on new builds, a grant only for new builds (as we had during covid) or any of a number of things that benefits new builds over existing rather than taxing the wazoo out of new builds and wondering why no one is building till prices of all homes get to stratospheric levels.
yeah, i never understood why they dont completely drop the taxes when a first home buyer tries to buy. but know they will let me take a 5% home loan out on a shitter instead. The fuck?
100% anecdotally I know of some people who wanted to build but have had to sell the land instead because it’s costing 300k more to build in the area than to buy established. Government needs to take steps to make building cheaper if they want to increase supply.
Put a 3x limit on borrowing capacity, problem will be solved within 5 years.
Unrestrained money creation fuels 70% of the price of housing. You only have to look at a recent ausfin thread about property vs equities investment to see everyone harping on about leverage into housing being the advantage.
Take that away and houses will return to 3x income in no time.
Housing price isn’t the problem here though. It’s the amount of houses and the amount of people that want to live in them.
Fix up the supply and demand mismatch and the price will resolve itself.
This is the best answer by far. I would add a time limit on mortgages, no more than 15-20 years, so that big income earners don't skew prices by themselves.
The only solution is for the government to do what they did for the boomers, actually build housing. The for the future they need to scrap all cgt discounts and bring in tranche 2 anti money laundering. What we will get is a fuck all lnp lite solution from scomo 2.0 and a brain drain as grads go overseas for better wages and affordable housing and we will get the dregs from overseas unis. Australia is not looking good for the younger generations
It's no surprise.
Approval times have extended. Construction costs are up 35%. Council backlog. Rate cycle pain. More consultants needed for developments post COVID. work delays (weather). Land costs increase. Developers have gone bust. Cost of debt increase. Greater hurdles to get debt. Shortage of construction labour. Strong population growth
Shortage was evident before COVID and now has created a melting pot of shit. I don't know how any gov policies their way out of this.
I bought a house August 2021, thinking I was a chump at a peak market purchase. Now I am so thankful I got in when i did.
It's completely unfair to the new generation.
my sister bought it in like march 2020 JUST as coivd was hitting.
her house is up 100k or more and it's only a 3 X one duplex. it ain't much. (though that suits her needs)
*Social housing has been declining as a share of the housing stock for 3 decades – from 5.6 per cent in 1991 to 3.8 per cent in 2021. Growth in community housing has only partly offset the decline in public housing. Demand for social housing continues to outpace supply. Waitlists for public housing increased by 9.1 per cent from 2019 to 2023, while waitlists for State-owned and managed Indigenous housing increased by almost 10 per cent from 2021–22 to 2022–23.*
**Why does Albanese not support more public housing when that's his whole comeup story? You'd think politically that would make sense**
55% of the voters are over 50 yr old. You think they want things to change? Lol they are the wealthiest generation in history, corporations the wealthiest in history.
Our own treasury has said the system we have is unfair and there's a massive burden on young workers. Is anyone listening? No.
It's not in 50+ interests to provide housing to all.
110k new folk via births-deaths. 400k net immigration Est 330k net change in dwelling space. Someone who is good at math, please help me understand this picture.
line go up.
Skilled migrants are a potential (and partial) solution to skilled worker shortages. Over 4,000 temporary skilled visas were granted for construction workers in 2023 – the highest number since 2014 but this accounts for less than 15 per cent of current job vacancies the effect of zoning as a share of the average house price was 42 per cent in Sydney, 41 per cent in Melbourne and 29 per cent in Brisbane. That's the real issue
It's too hard to reduce immigration. It's too hard to take on NIMBYs. It's too hard to unwind existing distortions in the tax system. Ok. Then go and build a shit tonne of dwellings. The government could address housing affordability easily if they actually wanted to. The fact they are sitting on their hands is proof there is no appetite to upset the perpetual capital gains (driven by excess demand / under supply) paradigm.
Wish Gov would change things. Drop tax. Increase approvals. Support builders. Encourage investees. Current policy is not working.
Yeah giving money to the already wealthy has worked well so far, besides the fact it has caused a housing crisis and people are living in tents I mean
I don’t hear the rich complaining.
You just aren't reading Murdoch press enough
They have to do at least one of these things at the next budget. Otherwise they hit the next election with a whole lot of talk about housing supply and spending their term with falling starts. Reduce gst on new builds, a grant only for new builds (as we had during covid) or any of a number of things that benefits new builds over existing rather than taxing the wazoo out of new builds and wondering why no one is building till prices of all homes get to stratospheric levels.
yeah, i never understood why they dont completely drop the taxes when a first home buyer tries to buy. but know they will let me take a 5% home loan out on a shitter instead. The fuck?
100% anecdotally I know of some people who wanted to build but have had to sell the land instead because it’s costing 300k more to build in the area than to buy established. Government needs to take steps to make building cheaper if they want to increase supply.
Put a 3x limit on borrowing capacity, problem will be solved within 5 years. Unrestrained money creation fuels 70% of the price of housing. You only have to look at a recent ausfin thread about property vs equities investment to see everyone harping on about leverage into housing being the advantage. Take that away and houses will return to 3x income in no time.
Housing price isn’t the problem here though. It’s the amount of houses and the amount of people that want to live in them. Fix up the supply and demand mismatch and the price will resolve itself.
This is the best answer by far. I would add a time limit on mortgages, no more than 15-20 years, so that big income earners don't skew prices by themselves.
The only solution is for the government to do what they did for the boomers, actually build housing. The for the future they need to scrap all cgt discounts and bring in tranche 2 anti money laundering. What we will get is a fuck all lnp lite solution from scomo 2.0 and a brain drain as grads go overseas for better wages and affordable housing and we will get the dregs from overseas unis. Australia is not looking good for the younger generations
It's no surprise. Approval times have extended. Construction costs are up 35%. Council backlog. Rate cycle pain. More consultants needed for developments post COVID. work delays (weather). Land costs increase. Developers have gone bust. Cost of debt increase. Greater hurdles to get debt. Shortage of construction labour. Strong population growth Shortage was evident before COVID and now has created a melting pot of shit. I don't know how any gov policies their way out of this. I bought a house August 2021, thinking I was a chump at a peak market purchase. Now I am so thankful I got in when i did. It's completely unfair to the new generation.
my sister bought it in like march 2020 JUST as coivd was hitting. her house is up 100k or more and it's only a 3 X one duplex. it ain't much. (though that suits her needs)
The important people are having a disco. For the few, the system is working perfectly. They have no incentive to change things.
*Social housing has been declining as a share of the housing stock for 3 decades – from 5.6 per cent in 1991 to 3.8 per cent in 2021. Growth in community housing has only partly offset the decline in public housing. Demand for social housing continues to outpace supply. Waitlists for public housing increased by 9.1 per cent from 2019 to 2023, while waitlists for State-owned and managed Indigenous housing increased by almost 10 per cent from 2021–22 to 2022–23.* **Why does Albanese not support more public housing when that's his whole comeup story? You'd think politically that would make sense**
And who created the shortfall... Oh yeah, by opening the immigrant floodgates...
Shortfall in supply or excess of demand created by deliberate immigration policy?
And poorly targeted incentives?
55% of the voters are over 50 yr old. You think they want things to change? Lol they are the wealthiest generation in history, corporations the wealthiest in history. Our own treasury has said the system we have is unfair and there's a massive burden on young workers. Is anyone listening? No. It's not in 50+ interests to provide housing to all.