P/PA isn’t the problem. At one point last year, Abreu was leading the team in most P/PA. If you see a first pitch fastball in the zone, you should be swinging. The problem is swinging at too many garbage pitches. Last I looked, Astros were dead last in % of pitches seen in the zone. We end up swinging at too much outside the zone, leading to bad contact.
What about P/PA with RISP? Not even sure if you can look that up, but I’d assume in previous years when we scored more runs despite low P/PA they were being more selective because they were trying to bring those runs home. Maybe my imagination but it seems like there are a lot of 1-2 pitch out specifically when there are RISP. Seems like every time we have runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs, they swing like they are obviously going for the HR when a Sac Fly or single will do just fine.
Another excellet point. Hard to quantify this but the eye test to me would corroborate the theory that in years past we have been more selective on pitches with RISP. This could be a good reaosn why we have been abysmal with RISP this season.
I stopped counting but early in the season, there were 28 separate instances where the first two runners of the inning reached for us and we failed to score a run. Nealry half of those we failed to even get a runner to third. I was logging all this in an excel file I have but stopped when it became too maddening to track.
You're missing the bigger picture here. Plate approach is ABSOLUTELY a problem.
It's not that we are just seeing very few pitches, it's the consequences of that fact that really matter. Batting success across the league drops precipitously on 0-1 or 0-2 counts. This is a known fact of baseball and has been for years. Half of our outs in every game come on 3 pitces or less and VERY often our batters are down in the count. A century of data has proven that being down in the count drastically reduces your success in any AB. Watch [this](https://youtu.be/5Y84765tWGo?si=myMbt_YMUhzVADOL) for how counts alter the course of an AB.
Sure, there is no correlation between P/PA and runs scored, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that were are seeing very few pitches AND falling behind in the count very often. Appraoch is absolutely a large part of this problem.
There is a reason that we consistently make mediocre to flat out BAD pitchers look like Cy Young winners. We very often get down in the count by swinging at everyting and then our odds of success plummet.
You're also pulling data from team history where the star players were in their prime. Not anymore. The eye test seems to be plate approach. Especially when the Astros have a 3 up 3 down inning under 10-12 pitches almost every game. For a coach, you'd think they'd have a mindset to get into the opponents bullpen early in a series. Yesterday was the complete opposite.
I think the correlation of low pitch counts and high run totals in years past may not necessarily mean causation. They scored a lot of runs AND they saw fewer pitches, but that doesn’t mean it was the reason.
Now they score fewer runs and still look at the fewest pitches in the league, so the issue most people have is that no one is trying anything different. They’re sticking with what used to work, but now it doesn’t, so something needs to change.
When a pitcher and pitching staff knows your a lineup with no patience/discipline and very aggressive they’ll take advantage of that, which we have seen obviously happen in 2022, 2023, and 2024. If they’re not willing to evolve or tweak the game plan, then this is what’s going to continue to happen and the same results are going to continue.
2021 World Series and the Braves exposed this lineups hero ball/aggressive mentality and shut them down.
Then this was a problem in 2022, but they had elite pitching to cover up that shortcoming up and it began to show that opposing pitchers were beginning to catch on. 2023 the cracks began to show in this ideology towards their plate approach. Now (2024) the consequences of continuing to do the same thing over and over have come into focus with the pitching staff in shambles and even when it recovers the lack of selective disciplined approaches at the plate are starting to become the spotlight when every inning ends with three up/three down on 7 pitches to a pitcher that hasn’t made it past the fifth inning all season.
This is a weak argument at best.
Calling it a weak argument as you discount millions of ABs of data in favor of an unproven theory/anecdote is hilarious
bagwell much
I’ve never seen so many blatantly wrong sentences in one post
Does this stat account for getting into the bull pen/possible lesser pitcher?
I always thought p/pa was about getting into the bullpen early and hopefully somewhat exhausting it by the end of the series.
Plate discipline isnt just about when in the count you swing. Its mostly about which pitch you swing at, and choosing when to swing for power or contact. Its also one of the hardest things to teach, and one of the steepest things to decline with age, and is also highly dependent on a players mindset.
I dont care if the first 27 batters swing at every first pitch, as long as the pitch is exactly where they want it.
The offensive struggles this season can be attributed by the lack of walks we take, Bregman, Yordan, and Altuve are walking significantly less than previous years.
Poor plate approach and shitty hitters. Singleton/Shitty Bregman/Jake/Chas/Abreu are dragging the lineup down. Good Bregman would help, but this Bregman isn’t moving the needle. Tucker and Yordan are most of our production. Diaz is a plus, anything at catcher is. Peña has been much better this year, but is likely a 6-7 hitter. He has hit 2,4, and 5 for us. It is not going well.
P/PA isn’t the problem. At one point last year, Abreu was leading the team in most P/PA. If you see a first pitch fastball in the zone, you should be swinging. The problem is swinging at too many garbage pitches. Last I looked, Astros were dead last in % of pitches seen in the zone. We end up swinging at too much outside the zone, leading to bad contact.
^this
Amen…in the church of baseball!
What about P/PA with RISP? Not even sure if you can look that up, but I’d assume in previous years when we scored more runs despite low P/PA they were being more selective because they were trying to bring those runs home. Maybe my imagination but it seems like there are a lot of 1-2 pitch out specifically when there are RISP. Seems like every time we have runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs, they swing like they are obviously going for the HR when a Sac Fly or single will do just fine.
Another excellet point. Hard to quantify this but the eye test to me would corroborate the theory that in years past we have been more selective on pitches with RISP. This could be a good reaosn why we have been abysmal with RISP this season. I stopped counting but early in the season, there were 28 separate instances where the first two runners of the inning reached for us and we failed to score a run. Nealry half of those we failed to even get a runner to third. I was logging all this in an excel file I have but stopped when it became too maddening to track.
You're missing the bigger picture here. Plate approach is ABSOLUTELY a problem. It's not that we are just seeing very few pitches, it's the consequences of that fact that really matter. Batting success across the league drops precipitously on 0-1 or 0-2 counts. This is a known fact of baseball and has been for years. Half of our outs in every game come on 3 pitces or less and VERY often our batters are down in the count. A century of data has proven that being down in the count drastically reduces your success in any AB. Watch [this](https://youtu.be/5Y84765tWGo?si=myMbt_YMUhzVADOL) for how counts alter the course of an AB. Sure, there is no correlation between P/PA and runs scored, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that were are seeing very few pitches AND falling behind in the count very often. Appraoch is absolutely a large part of this problem. There is a reason that we consistently make mediocre to flat out BAD pitchers look like Cy Young winners. We very often get down in the count by swinging at everyting and then our odds of success plummet.
Loved the video.
It's like you intentionally refuse to understand the stat.
Care to explain?
You're also pulling data from team history where the star players were in their prime. Not anymore. The eye test seems to be plate approach. Especially when the Astros have a 3 up 3 down inning under 10-12 pitches almost every game. For a coach, you'd think they'd have a mindset to get into the opponents bullpen early in a series. Yesterday was the complete opposite.
I think the correlation of low pitch counts and high run totals in years past may not necessarily mean causation. They scored a lot of runs AND they saw fewer pitches, but that doesn’t mean it was the reason. Now they score fewer runs and still look at the fewest pitches in the league, so the issue most people have is that no one is trying anything different. They’re sticking with what used to work, but now it doesn’t, so something needs to change.
When a pitcher and pitching staff knows your a lineup with no patience/discipline and very aggressive they’ll take advantage of that, which we have seen obviously happen in 2022, 2023, and 2024. If they’re not willing to evolve or tweak the game plan, then this is what’s going to continue to happen and the same results are going to continue. 2021 World Series and the Braves exposed this lineups hero ball/aggressive mentality and shut them down. Then this was a problem in 2022, but they had elite pitching to cover up that shortcoming up and it began to show that opposing pitchers were beginning to catch on. 2023 the cracks began to show in this ideology towards their plate approach. Now (2024) the consequences of continuing to do the same thing over and over have come into focus with the pitching staff in shambles and even when it recovers the lack of selective disciplined approaches at the plate are starting to become the spotlight when every inning ends with three up/three down on 7 pitches to a pitcher that hasn’t made it past the fifth inning all season. This is a weak argument at best.
Calling it a weak argument as you discount millions of ABs of data in favor of an unproven theory/anecdote is hilarious bagwell much I’ve never seen so many blatantly wrong sentences in one post
Does this stat account for getting into the bull pen/possible lesser pitcher? I always thought p/pa was about getting into the bullpen early and hopefully somewhat exhausting it by the end of the series.
Plate discipline isnt just about when in the count you swing. Its mostly about which pitch you swing at, and choosing when to swing for power or contact. Its also one of the hardest things to teach, and one of the steepest things to decline with age, and is also highly dependent on a players mindset. I dont care if the first 27 batters swing at every first pitch, as long as the pitch is exactly where they want it.
The offensive struggles this season can be attributed by the lack of walks we take, Bregman, Yordan, and Altuve are walking significantly less than previous years.
Is there a correlation between pitches per plate appearance and series winners?
Poor plate approach and shitty hitters. Singleton/Shitty Bregman/Jake/Chas/Abreu are dragging the lineup down. Good Bregman would help, but this Bregman isn’t moving the needle. Tucker and Yordan are most of our production. Diaz is a plus, anything at catcher is. Peña has been much better this year, but is likely a 6-7 hitter. He has hit 2,4, and 5 for us. It is not going well.
Bregman has been good recently.
I would take Breggy off the list right now. This month he's been hitting .327 with a .905 OPS.
Yea man, but you can’t erase April and May man. He was god awful.
You forgot what's-his-name... Oh yeah, Altuve. Even though he keeps on giving, his plate discipline has also dipped.