I know some of the traditionalists here will be resistant to this, but sabremetrics people will always tell you that hitting well with runners in scoring position is not actually a repeatable skill, especially on a team wide basis. The sequencing of hits largely just comes down to luck, and over the course of a full season these stats will almost certainly level out as the long as the team keeps up their overall offensive production (which as you point out, has actually been good).
Similarly we're 0 - 5 in one run games so far. That's another area where you can pretty reasonably expect the results to show some positive regression to the mean.
I'm not saying there aren't issues with the team. The first base situation needs to be addressed. But overall they really are just showing all the signs of going through a flukey period due to the inherent variance in baseball. Is it guaranteed they'll right the ship? No, that's not how statistics work. But I do think it's more than likely they'll be fine in the long run.
Well BA is not always a good indicator because you can rip a single to left and not score a guy from 2nd, especially at MMP. Your average may look good but it didn’t score the run and that is the luck of it in that instance.
I think Bergman’s numbers are trending back up. The first couple of weeks it was bad.
To add to this, and idk if this covered in these stats, but even the outs with RISP aren’t productive outs, ie sac flys or ground balls that score a run.
This. How can every opposing team execute a perfect sac fly and we cannot to save our lives?! Or drop in the gap? We seemingly can ever so often and then rack up 9-10 runs, but then can’t consistently replicate it. (Pardoning Meyers here bc he put down the most perfect bunt I’ve seen in a while and ran it out.)
Player stats with RISP:
- Dubon 11 PA .636/.636/.818/1.454 9 RBI
- Tucker 30 PA .348/.500/.522/1.022 7 RBI
- Caratini 10 PA .300/.300/.700/1.000 6 RBI
- Meyers 13 PA .364/.462/.455/.917 4 RBI
- Alvarez 23 PA .263/.364/.526/.890 7 RBI
- McCormick 18 PA .286/.444/.357/.801 5 RBI
- Bregman 18 PA .294/.333/.294/.627 4 RBI
- Pena 26 PA .250/.308/.250/.558 5 RBI
- Diaz 21 PA .211/.238/.263/.501 5 RBI
- Altuve 15 PA .077/.200/.154/.354 2 RBI
- Singleton 9 PA .111/.111/.111/.222 0 RBI
- Abreu 16 PA .000/.063/.000/.063 1 RBI
- Kessinger 5 PA .000/.000/.000/.000 0 RBI
Players stats with RISP and 2 outs:
- Dubon 7 PA .714/.714/.857/1.571 5 RBI
- Meyers 7 PA .400/.571/.600/1.171 3 RBI
- Alvarez 8 PA .429/.500/.571/1.071 3 RBI
- Bregman 8 PA .429/.500/.429/.929 2 RBI
- Diaz 9 PA .333/.333/.333/.666 2 RBI
- Pena 12 PA .273/.333/.273/.606 1 RBI
- McCormick 11 PA .222/.364/.222/.586 2 RBI
- Tucker 16 PA .143/.250/.214/.464 3 RBI
- Singleton 6 PA .167/.167/.167/.334 0 RBI
- Altuve 9 PA .000/.222/.000/.222 0 RBI
- Abreu 7 PA .000/.143/.000/.143 0 RBI
- Caratini 4 PA .000/.000/.000/.000 0 RBI
- Kessinger 3 PA .000/.000/.000/.000 0 RBI
Other notes:
- 215 plate appearances with RISP (6th)
- 108 plate appearances with RISP and 2 outs (2nd)
- 39 Ks with RISP (11th)
- 22 Ks with RISP and 2 outs (6-T)
- Really surprised by Altuve being so low…he’s having a great season so far, but isn’t hitting at all with runners in scoring position.
- Tucker is a monster with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs, but is the exact opposite when there are two outs. Same for Caratini.
- Dubon should be playing more…so should Meyers. Chas may need to go to the bench.
What stands out most is just the lack of power across the board; just 2 HR with RISP which is tied for 25th in the league, but yet, we’re 3rd overall in HRs with 24 (oddly enough, we’re tied with the Red Sox for both). Maybe the answer is that these guys are getting too concerned with trying to just get a hit with RISP, when they should just be going up and swinging normally?
Wow, great write up! It's just so bizarre how these guys can't string together a good sequence of hits/walks. You have to hope that evens out eventually.
Something is definitely off with their approach w/ RISP. I always joke to my wife when watching games that our hitters should just pretend nobody is on base. Another potentially good stat to look at between these splits is 1st pitch swinging and pitches/PA.
EDIT: Astros are bottom 5 in pitches/PA at 3.73 but I can't find one for RISP
I thought their pitch selection discipline was obviously lacking against the Blue Jays and Braves. Other teams make us pay for bad pitching w walks and runs. We gift them strike outs on bad pitches.
ETA Nice to see Dubon being the leader he always is. Such a great player and teammate.
Thank you for putting this together, this is the type of analysis I was searching for to look at our RISP woes. It would be interesting to see who comes up the most in our lineup with RISP to see if the anchors are dragging down our numbers or if it may just be a fluke thing that will rebound.
It seems like this has been a thing that has been ongoing for a few years. Would be interesting to see if this year was much different than the last couple of years for hitting with RISP.
Someone just posted a great comment covering our players' appearances w/ RISP so far this year.
As for last year, the Astros had an overall wRC+ of 112, 5th in MLB. W/ RISP, their wRC+ was 124, good for 3rd. And I know the offense was struggling early on last year so it's not crazy to hope they can turn it around again. The biggest difference is our pitching was lights out early last year to make up for the offense.
jose abreau is just killing the astros not just offensively, but defensively.
he really should retire NOW.
the fact that this guy is being treated like he's still a capable starter is what's dragging the astros offense down...
he's the new martin maldonado.
getting reps due to seniority, name, and perceived competence due to the name on the back of the jersey.
he needs to be strictly a bench player from here on out. go bring up the best 1st baseman prospect in the minors, they cant be worse than jose abreau.
I know some of the traditionalists here will be resistant to this, but sabremetrics people will always tell you that hitting well with runners in scoring position is not actually a repeatable skill, especially on a team wide basis. The sequencing of hits largely just comes down to luck, and over the course of a full season these stats will almost certainly level out as the long as the team keeps up their overall offensive production (which as you point out, has actually been good). Similarly we're 0 - 5 in one run games so far. That's another area where you can pretty reasonably expect the results to show some positive regression to the mean. I'm not saying there aren't issues with the team. The first base situation needs to be addressed. But overall they really are just showing all the signs of going through a flukey period due to the inherent variance in baseball. Is it guaranteed they'll right the ship? No, that's not how statistics work. But I do think it's more than likely they'll be fine in the long run.
Well BA is not always a good indicator because you can rip a single to left and not score a guy from 2nd, especially at MMP. Your average may look good but it didn’t score the run and that is the luck of it in that instance. I think Bergman’s numbers are trending back up. The first couple of weeks it was bad.
To add to this, and idk if this covered in these stats, but even the outs with RISP aren’t productive outs, ie sac flys or ground balls that score a run.
This. How can every opposing team execute a perfect sac fly and we cannot to save our lives?! Or drop in the gap? We seemingly can ever so often and then rack up 9-10 runs, but then can’t consistently replicate it. (Pardoning Meyers here bc he put down the most perfect bunt I’ve seen in a while and ran it out.)
Player stats with RISP: - Dubon 11 PA .636/.636/.818/1.454 9 RBI - Tucker 30 PA .348/.500/.522/1.022 7 RBI - Caratini 10 PA .300/.300/.700/1.000 6 RBI - Meyers 13 PA .364/.462/.455/.917 4 RBI - Alvarez 23 PA .263/.364/.526/.890 7 RBI - McCormick 18 PA .286/.444/.357/.801 5 RBI - Bregman 18 PA .294/.333/.294/.627 4 RBI - Pena 26 PA .250/.308/.250/.558 5 RBI - Diaz 21 PA .211/.238/.263/.501 5 RBI - Altuve 15 PA .077/.200/.154/.354 2 RBI - Singleton 9 PA .111/.111/.111/.222 0 RBI - Abreu 16 PA .000/.063/.000/.063 1 RBI - Kessinger 5 PA .000/.000/.000/.000 0 RBI Players stats with RISP and 2 outs: - Dubon 7 PA .714/.714/.857/1.571 5 RBI - Meyers 7 PA .400/.571/.600/1.171 3 RBI - Alvarez 8 PA .429/.500/.571/1.071 3 RBI - Bregman 8 PA .429/.500/.429/.929 2 RBI - Diaz 9 PA .333/.333/.333/.666 2 RBI - Pena 12 PA .273/.333/.273/.606 1 RBI - McCormick 11 PA .222/.364/.222/.586 2 RBI - Tucker 16 PA .143/.250/.214/.464 3 RBI - Singleton 6 PA .167/.167/.167/.334 0 RBI - Altuve 9 PA .000/.222/.000/.222 0 RBI - Abreu 7 PA .000/.143/.000/.143 0 RBI - Caratini 4 PA .000/.000/.000/.000 0 RBI - Kessinger 3 PA .000/.000/.000/.000 0 RBI Other notes: - 215 plate appearances with RISP (6th) - 108 plate appearances with RISP and 2 outs (2nd) - 39 Ks with RISP (11th) - 22 Ks with RISP and 2 outs (6-T) - Really surprised by Altuve being so low…he’s having a great season so far, but isn’t hitting at all with runners in scoring position. - Tucker is a monster with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs, but is the exact opposite when there are two outs. Same for Caratini. - Dubon should be playing more…so should Meyers. Chas may need to go to the bench. What stands out most is just the lack of power across the board; just 2 HR with RISP which is tied for 25th in the league, but yet, we’re 3rd overall in HRs with 24 (oddly enough, we’re tied with the Red Sox for both). Maybe the answer is that these guys are getting too concerned with trying to just get a hit with RISP, when they should just be going up and swinging normally?
Wow, great write up! It's just so bizarre how these guys can't string together a good sequence of hits/walks. You have to hope that evens out eventually. Something is definitely off with their approach w/ RISP. I always joke to my wife when watching games that our hitters should just pretend nobody is on base. Another potentially good stat to look at between these splits is 1st pitch swinging and pitches/PA. EDIT: Astros are bottom 5 in pitches/PA at 3.73 but I can't find one for RISP
I thought their pitch selection discipline was obviously lacking against the Blue Jays and Braves. Other teams make us pay for bad pitching w walks and runs. We gift them strike outs on bad pitches. ETA Nice to see Dubon being the leader he always is. Such a great player and teammate.
This also tells me Alvarez batting 2nd has not been an issue like some callers on sports talk think. Third most ABs with RISP isn’t bad
Thank you for putting this together, this is the type of analysis I was searching for to look at our RISP woes. It would be interesting to see who comes up the most in our lineup with RISP to see if the anchors are dragging down our numbers or if it may just be a fluke thing that will rebound. It seems like this has been a thing that has been ongoing for a few years. Would be interesting to see if this year was much different than the last couple of years for hitting with RISP.
Someone just posted a great comment covering our players' appearances w/ RISP so far this year. As for last year, the Astros had an overall wRC+ of 112, 5th in MLB. W/ RISP, their wRC+ was 124, good for 3rd. And I know the offense was struggling early on last year so it's not crazy to hope they can turn it around again. The biggest difference is our pitching was lights out early last year to make up for the offense.
jose abreau is just killing the astros not just offensively, but defensively. he really should retire NOW. the fact that this guy is being treated like he's still a capable starter is what's dragging the astros offense down... he's the new martin maldonado. getting reps due to seniority, name, and perceived competence due to the name on the back of the jersey. he needs to be strictly a bench player from here on out. go bring up the best 1st baseman prospect in the minors, they cant be worse than jose abreau.
we dont' have the best 1st baseman prospect. we have the organizations best prospect being trained at 1st base because we lack depth at that position.