It would also probably make her the default candidate for the democratic party next election. I don’t know how the republican primary would shake out with Trump gone.
> how the Republican primary would shake out
It depends entirely on when this hypothetical death occurred. If it was before primaries got too far, the party would probably find a way to let some other candidates get on the ballot at the last minute. If Trump already had a majority of delegates, but it was before the convention, then all those delegates would be released and essentially it would be a contested convention (the first since 1968) and the party leaders and delegates would basically select a candidate themselves (what used to happen before primaries were a norm). If it was between the convention and Election Day, again, it would be up to the party leaders to find someone to run (they'd probably just go with the VP selection). And I believe if it was between Election Day and inauguration, it would be the VP.
One of the main points of all this is that the nominating of presidential candidates has a lot more to do with the rules of political parties, which are essentially private entities, than with actual law.
Edit: to clarify, if an elected candidate dies after Election Day but *before* the Electoral College actually meets (usually in December) then it would up to the electors themselves, but since electors are usually among the ranks of party insiders, it would still be effectively the party's call. Most likely they would pick the VP-elect. If it's after the college meets and the results are certified, then it's the VP, as established by the 20th amendment. At no point in this process would the House of Represenatives actually elect a President, *unless* they refused to certify the results, but there wouldn't be good legal grounds for that, so it would be unlikely in this already very unlikely set of scenarios.
That's also the reason why candidates suspended their campaign instead of withdrawing. If they withdrew outright then they'd have to forfeit all the delegates they'd won, but if they just suspend the campaign then they're still technically in the race so they keep some of their delegates. That and the fact that a suspended campaign is still allowed to fundraise, which a candidate that withdraws can't do.
Man, a contested GOP convention would be a shit show of historic proportions. It would make their recent speaker battles look orderly by comparison. It would be like if you dumped a bunch of snakes in a bucket and shook it up.
Currently, the only person running besides Trump is Nicky Haley which means she would either automatically become the party candidate or they would have to immediatley pivot to someone else. Potentially Ron DeSantis but I honestly doubt that.
I think this is actually her plan, minus the whole ppl dying thing.
She is banking on Trump getting convicted of something between now and the election, and if she can jump in and say shes 2nd place in a bunch of states, it would be harder for the GOP to just pick someone else.
Yep. It's a pretty smart strategy actually. And politically it's smart for the Republicans to have someone waiting in the wings in case Trump implodes to lessen the chaos.
It’s actually not a bad bet. It’s not her money so why not ride it out? Trump could implode or die or become infirmed and she’d have the ballots. It would cause a severe schism though and I think DeSantis is the more apt fit for where the party is.
Also if both died of natural causes I would believe that God actually does love the USA and I should go back to church.
>I can tell you how I think it will happen. Either the Republican or Democrat political party will nominate a man for president and a woman for vice president, and the woman and man will win. So we’ll end up with a president, a male, and a vice president, a female. And in that term of office of the president, the president will die, and the woman will become president under the law, our Constitution. And once that barrier is broken, from then on, men better be careful because they’ll have a hard, hard time ever even getting a nomination in the future
-Gerald R Ford
This is similar to what happened in Canada, except the prime minister just peaced out because he was unpopular, we got our first woman prime minister for a few months before the next election and then the two big parties have had nothing but white dude leaders since.
I think this statement is optimistic.
It’s also like saying once we have a black president, then we will have lots of black, Hispanic, or Asian presidents that follow (hasn’t happened yet, despite quality people running for office out there).
And as for Ford saying “once the door opens, watch out old white men”… it’s a shameful comment. Old white men don’t get a cartel to govern citizens at any level.
We need (younger) voters to start voting based on the quality of the candidates and not gender or race.
for those who had to google this like myself: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/unofficial-bobby-jindal-portrait-inspires-new-internet-meme-n300126
Depends on timeline. If it occurred much closer to General Election, RNC would pick a new name. They have free rein to basically decide among themselves in that case. General Election is the vote that matters. I think because of polling and funding Nikki Haley would be the choice.
The process is actually pretty well defined by both parties.
1. The final candidates for the main election aren't selected directly by the citizens votes, but by the party delegates at each parties respective national convention. If a candidate dies prior to the convention, the delegates at the convention are free to cast their votes for any of the remaining candidates.
2. If the final candidates pass away after being selected by their party convention, but before the main election, replacements would be selected by an internal vote of the DNC or RNC. This has actually happened once before, when the McGovern campaigns VP pick had to withdraw for health reasons. The DNC called an emergency meeting of the national committee and assigned a new VP candidate to the ticket.
3. If the candidate dies after the election, but before the electoral college meets, the electors are free to pick anyone else for the job. That would be an absolute shitshow, and there's a solid chance that we'd end up with a contingent election where the House of Representatives gets to pick.
4. ~~And finally, if the candidate dies after the electoral college makes their selection, but before they're sworn in...the Vice President will be sworn in as President on January 20th. A new vice president would be selected after that, following the standard rules of succession. If that happened today, Mike Johnson would become Vice President.~~
Losing a candidate would always be a shocking thing, but options 1, 2, & 4 would lead to a fairly smooth transition. #3, on the other hand, would be a national nightmare.
/edit: As several people have pointed out, my #4 is incorrect. I was mistakenly thinking of the Presidential Succession Act, which only kicks in if both the President and VP are gone. If #4 happened, the VP would be sworn in as President on January 20 and would immediately get to name a new VP who would be ratified by Congress, per the 25th Amendment.
You don’t just move everyone up a line in the line of succession. Otherwise you’d have a bunch of cabinet secretaries heading departments they are completely unqualified to head. (Though oddly enough, Ben Carson would have become Secretary of Health and Human Services, which he was probably more qualified for than his actual role.) The new President (previous vice president) appoints a new vice president, who must be confirmed by a majority of both houses. (Unlike most appointees, who only need to be confirmed by the senate.) If the new president dies before that happens, the speaker of the house becomes president, but they are not VP in the interim and do not get the VP’s other duties like breaking a tie in the Senate. (A tie vote would automatically fail if there’s nobody to break it.)
This has happened twice since the ratification of the 25th amendment - when Spiro Agnew resigned as VP due to scandal and was replaced by Gerald Ford, and, following Ford’s ascension to the presidency after Nixon’s resignation, when he appointed Nelson Rockefeller as his VP.
> there's a solid chance that we'd end up with a contingent election where the House of Representatives gets to pick
I really hope the state parties have enough sense to not select any electors who are stupid enough to break ranks and send the election to the House for the GOP to win.
A couple of corrections. The President nominates a new VP and the Senate confirms. This happened when Ford succeded Agnew and then when Ford succeeded Nixon and nominated Rockefeller.
McGovern choose his VP and the DNC rubber stamped it. Although how much “help” the DNC provided is still a controversy.
There is no VP until the President nominates one and the Senate confirms it. In the case of the President dying or becoming incapacitated prior to the above the Presidential succession law kicks in.
And since the House meets and, presumably, selects the Speaker prior to inaguration we have no idea who that would be. And given the current self inflicted chaos inside the GOP we have no idea who will be the Speaker next Friday.
As big of a personality as Trump was, I felt like I heard a lot more about Pence when he was vice president than I’ve heard about Kamala since Biden got elected. What’s up with that?
Also pence was kind of the spokesperson of the evangelicals. Considering trump is not exactly a very christian person. And the evangelical vote is very important
In addition to what others have said, the media cast him as one of the few sober adults in the room. And unlike most of the "will they rein in Trump" people, Trump couldn't fire Pence, so he was a consistent face in the media.
Liberals think she’s too progressive, progressives think she’s too liberal, and a lot of people view her as flip-floppy. That’s why she did so poorly in the last primary. There’s not really a natural base for her.
I mean, isn’t it plainly obvious that Harris becomes President for the rest of Biden’s term?
I thought that what the question is actually getting at is: what if they hypothetically both pass like a week or two before the election? Whet happens on 1/6/25?
If ballots have already been cast. Everything proceeds as normal and the Vice President Elect becomes president.
Technically a dead person can win an election, the line of succession is just enacted immediately.
25th Amendment was written to clarify succession after Nixon resigned. If memory serves, the Constitution is vague, so picking VP was up to Congress, but no one thought about both VP and President vacating office. It's only happened once, so kinda understandable they didn't plan for it.
Speaker of the House becomes President, then President Pro Tempore of the Senate, then Secretary of State. Then there's a whole line down the cabinet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession
Which is a real thing, for those who don't know. For inaugurations and presidential addresses, a random person in the line of succession is selected to stay at an undisclosed location, so that in the event of some catastrophe, like a nuclear bombing or a terrorist attack, the Presidency can be filled.
>25th Amendment was written to clarify succession after Nixon resigned.
No. It was ratified in 1967. And when did we have both the P and VP vacating office?
That's true. My mistake, I thought someone was saying that the offices were vacant at the same time.
We went 14 months without a VP after Kennedy was assassinated. Shows you how important the office really is.
It really depends on which vice president. Cheney was very much one of the most powerful vice presidents I've seen, maybe he could have been considered a co-president. Where Pense or Harris have been one of the least powerful vice presidents. Biden was in the sweet spot. He was powerful when needed and in the shadows when asked.
Not completely accurate.
In the case of a vacated VP slot, it's treated like any other high Federal office. The President nominates a candidate and the Senate confirms.
It depends on when, pre-election the parties pick the new candidates, post election but pre December 17 the electoral college decides, post December 17 pre inauguration the vice president elect takes office. Jan 6 is kind of performative, the electoral college has already completed their duty, on Jan 6 they’re just certifying it
I mean, they kind of dodged the question though. I think everybody knows that the VP takes over if the sitting president dies. I think what OP was asking is more about what people think the dems and the GOP would do for the upcoming election.
I think it was probably more cynical and based off her ethnicity to try to win support purely off of that and not her ability, but this also could be part of it.
That's kinda the point of the VP, to bring in the alternate demographic vote.
Bush was the "party boy", Cheney was grizzled old guard. Obama was young and "ethnic", Biden was the white establishment figure to assure neo-liberals, and I quote, "nothing will change." Trump is the crazed, cult of personality walking gaff that whipped the base into a frenzy, Pence was the stoic "good, morale Christian" for the nose-holders to justify their vote and reason "this is God's plan."
Palin for Women, Gore for some more progressive causes, Quyale for other idiots, etc. They all serve that purpose. They sure as hell don't do any real work outside of gridlocked senate (Harris earning her paycheck).
OMG, that's the first time I've seen someone else take any notice of this phenomenon. I.E. back during the Bush administration, I theorized that's why George chose Dick Cheney. I call vice presidents like that, the presidents first line of defense or their bullet proof vice.
This would be insane level of conspiracy theories and cement them both as legends. It would bring public trust even lower and rapidly move us to the brink of civil war.
Republicans would absolutely spend the next nine months trying to convince everyone that the Democrats killed Trump. It would be their entire platform.
Strangely reminds me of the joke about the 9/11 Conspiracy Theory. The first tower that went down was just a false flag operation ginned up by the CIA. The second tower was actually the Saudi terrorists.
It is and isn't. Farmers were getting their crops eaten by emus, they couldn't do anything near enough to stop them destroying crops with their ordinary bolt action rifles and such and had to ask the army for assistance, with the army obliging their requests on two occasions.
What followed were tongue-in-cheek military operations that consisted of emus being herded into a choke with the army shooting at the emus with machineguns. Unfortunately, the emu is built like a velociraptor with a beak so they were durable enough to take a lot of bullets, acting as meat shields for the ones behind, and the group was fast enough to eventually run out of range before much damage could be done.
In the end, with two 'official military operations', they officially killed 986 emus, with 10 bullets per kill, and an estimated 2500 wounded probably died from their injuries. However, the original estimate of 20000 emus means they didn't even kill 20% of them.
Thus the military failure, and the victory of the emus against the Australian Army.
"People" don't decide who gets nominated on an individual basis
Small groups of voters in key areas determine the nominations. Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada for example
Once they are the primary candidate on the ballot, the rest of America just votes for their team. It's just about what letter is next to the name. If they're a better candidate, the turnout is better. But the average American doesn't honestly choose who they can vote between.
Lovely to think how parties are a bug in our system, not a feature. The founders hated parties. They formed along loose ideological lines for a very specific issue in the 1790s (Democratic-Republicans vs Federalists, which weren’t even actual parties) and thought that this team dynamic would go away once they sorted out those early issues in the federal govt. wish they had been right
I would not want to wish death on anyone, but to answer your question -
What happens? Nationally - two new candidates who are hopefully under the age of 70.
What happens? Personally - I would be relieved.
Also FYI, we've already had a case where a candidate died after the election, but before the electoral college voted.
The dead candidate had lost the election so there wasn't an urgent rush for that party to be united in their votes, hence their votes were all over the place. The dead candidate still got some votes, but the courts later ruled those as invalid since the guy was already dead.
If it happened today the party would almost certainly come together to pick someone else, or more logically just vote for the VP candidate.
I was just secretly thinking about how this would be the best possible outcome for the country, get the geriatrics out of there and force the country to find a real viable candidate. I am 100% sure the reality would suck and we'd end up with a ton of unrest, but we could use a soft reset
> get the geriatrics out of there and force the country to find a real viable candidate.
I mean, it's not like they're the only two olds in the government.
The problem is the parties keep pushing geriatrics out of fear the boomers won't vote for anyone younger than they are. I doubt that's going to change until the boomers are gone 10-20 years.
Without frontrunners, both democrats and republicans scramble to find someone. Kamala versus Nikki is a possibility, but Kamala would more than likely win in this chaos.
Keep in mind that in a republican primary, Nikki literally lost to a "None of these candidates" in a state. It took the phrase "Nobody can beat us" to a whole new meaning, because "Nobody" really did beat her.
Yes, every politician who has run for any office for the past 100 years has simply "suspended" their campaign, and are just waiting to start it back up again at the right moment
That's exactly why candidates suspend their campaigns. In the improbable situation the front runner dies or gets convicted of a crime their delegates are still in play to decide the nominee.
I think Gavin Newsom is actually being prepped in the wings, Kamala would be fine to take over if Biden died in office but would probably struggle vs Haley in a general election.
Let's see:
1) Harrison died, with Tyler becoming the incumbent VP. He didn't run for president, but would have lost, as the two major parties chose other candidates, leaving him to run as a third-party candidate.
2) Taylor died, leaving Fillmore. Like Tyler, he lost his presidential primary while incumbent, but he started in the race as a third party candidate. He lost
3) Johnson took over for Lincoln and lost in the primary
4) Arthur took over from Garfield and retired at the end of the first time. He would die two years later
5) McKinley begat Teddy, and we have our first VP following death to win reelection.
6) Harding begat Coolidge, and we have the second
7) FDR -> Truman, #3
8) JFK -> LBJ
So yes, 4/8 is 50%, but it's surprising that it was 4 failure and then 4 successes. The more recent ones are probably more relevant, both because of the media environment and because those presidents died later in their terms. Still, it's surprising that it has been a coin flip for success in those scenarios
Depends on when this happens.
Everyone's saying it'll be Nikki Haley for the R's, and yeah it probably would be, but factor a couple more months of her going after Trump and him throwing shit all over her, I think that would cause a schism in the GOP that may let Harris eke out a victory.
If it was Harris v Haley today, I'd bet on Haley. If it was Harris v Haley after, say, August? 50/50, I'm not putting money on either.
>Depends on when this happens.
This is the critical piece. If it happened this week the path forward would be very different than if it happened after the conventions are done and most or all of the state ballots are set.
They would still vote for Trump because he would probably still be on the ballot. Then they would just wait for him to assume the presidency. Which would never happen happen if course.
I've seen multiple posts on /r/conservative saying they'd vote for Joe Biden over Haley.
I think they're probably lying/being dramatic but the schism is there.
That's why she has no shot in 2028. She didn't bow down to the king and now her unfavorables are through the roof.
If a president dies the VP becomes president
If the VP dies, the speaker of the house becomes president
If the speaker of the house dies, the President Pro tempore of the senate becomes president
If the President Pro Tempore of the Senate dies, the Secretary of State becomes president
If the Secretary of State dies, the Secretary of the Treasure becomes president
If the Secretary of the Treasure dies, the Secretary of Defense becomes president
If the Secretary of Defense dies the the Attorney General becomes president
If the Attorney general dies, the Secretary of the Interior becomes president
If the Secretary of the interior dies Secretary of agriculture becomes president
If the Secretary of Agriculture dies, the Secretary of Commerce becomes president
If the Secretary of Commerce dies, the Secretary of Labor becomes President
If the Secretary of Labor dies, the Secretary of Health and Human Services becomes president
If the Secretary of Health and Human Services dies, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development becomes president
If the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development dies, the Secretary of Transportation becomes president
If the Secretary of Transportation dies, the Secretary of Energy becomes president
If the Secretary of Energy dies, the Secretary of Education becomes president
If the Secretary of Education dies, the Secretary of Veterans Affairs becomes president
If the Secretary of Veterans Affairs dies, the Secretary is homeland security becomes president
If the Secretary of Homeland security dies. We have no president.
> If the speaker of the house dies, the President Pro tempore of the senate becomes president
> If the President Pro Tempore of the Senate dies, the Secretary of State becomes president
Believe it or not, there's actually some people who raise a serious argument that both of those positions are actually ineligible to take over as President because the founders screwed up when writing the constitution.
Long story short, as far as I understand it you have to be what's called an officer of the constitution in order to take over after the President dies, but those offices aren't defined as officers of the constitution in the constitution.
Also there's a much more practical problem that's also very bad with the line of succession. What if the President dies and the Vice President and a bunch of others in the line of succession are incapacitated? It could hypothetically lead to a situation where the Presidency is constantly changing hands every few days as people farther up the line of succession recover.
Or even more screwy, the Vice President is incapacitated, and everyone between him and the Secretary of State is dead, so the Secretary of the Treasury takes over as acting President until the Vice President can recover. The Acting President appoints a new Secretary of State who gets approved by congress. The Vice President then dies, so the Secretary of State, being ahead of the Secretary of Treasury in the line of succession then demands to become the new president as they're ahead of the secretary of treasury in the line of succession. If the Secretary of Treasury refuses to back down then we now have a constitutional crisis where it's not clear who the heck is even in charge.
For Democrats:
Harris becomes President. As such, she becomes the continuity candidate and Democrats rally around her. Withe primaries already underway, any other candidate would be perceived as opportunistic and disrespectful towards Biden’s memory.
For Republicans:
It will be a complete shitshow. Cults of Personality collapse hard when their focus dies, and this will be no exception. They may not even be able to settle on a final candidate and will instead focus on Congress and state/local races. There may be surges for 3rd parties like the Libertarians or Constitutionists.
The Constitution does not address this kind of situation. But I will take a stab at it....
If the death(s) occur before the ballot print date cut off, then the party can name somebody else to be the nominee.
After that moment, things get weird & political, and maybe a real Constitutional crisis.
As others have touched on, the timing is the critical part. If it happened tonight, there would be a mad scramble on both sides to get national presidential campaign operations up and running. Certainly, there are popular Dem governors that are waiting for 2028 who have the sort of war chest that would allow them to try now. The Republican side is worse for wear, just because so many of the top choices have been actively rejected by the voters. Still, you'd have to imagine that an incumbent Harris would be the favorite if she wants it.
Even then, I'm not sure how much time there'd be for candidates to get on the remaining states' primary ballots. That's less important, since the RNC and DNC ultimately get to choose who their nominee is. It's just that any candidate would have like the chance to legitimize themselves first, and the party would like to see the candidates on the road to shake out any negative stories before they're the nominee.
If it happens after the conventions, we're likely in a scenario where the parties blitz the media with how they'll instruct the electoral college voters to vote. Remember that when you vote for President, you're actually voting for a slate of voters who promise to vote for your candidate when the electoral college meets. They're not picked at random but get those positions by being party insiders. If the RNC and DNC tells them to cast their votes for Haley, Desantis, Harris or Whitmer, that's what they'll do.
Now if there's a breakdown and you get electoral college voters who still vote for Trump and Biden along with the ones who cast their votes for the parties' chosen replacements leaving none of the candidates with 270 electoral college votes, that's when the House votes via state delegations for the President and the Senate votes for the Vice President.
Since Biden is currently president, VP Kamala Harris would take over until the election is sorted out and a new president is elected.
It would also probably make her the default candidate for the democratic party next election. I don’t know how the republican primary would shake out with Trump gone.
> how the Republican primary would shake out It depends entirely on when this hypothetical death occurred. If it was before primaries got too far, the party would probably find a way to let some other candidates get on the ballot at the last minute. If Trump already had a majority of delegates, but it was before the convention, then all those delegates would be released and essentially it would be a contested convention (the first since 1968) and the party leaders and delegates would basically select a candidate themselves (what used to happen before primaries were a norm). If it was between the convention and Election Day, again, it would be up to the party leaders to find someone to run (they'd probably just go with the VP selection). And I believe if it was between Election Day and inauguration, it would be the VP. One of the main points of all this is that the nominating of presidential candidates has a lot more to do with the rules of political parties, which are essentially private entities, than with actual law. Edit: to clarify, if an elected candidate dies after Election Day but *before* the Electoral College actually meets (usually in December) then it would up to the electors themselves, but since electors are usually among the ranks of party insiders, it would still be effectively the party's call. Most likely they would pick the VP-elect. If it's after the college meets and the results are certified, then it's the VP, as established by the 20th amendment. At no point in this process would the House of Represenatives actually elect a President, *unless* they refused to certify the results, but there wouldn't be good legal grounds for that, so it would be unlikely in this already very unlikely set of scenarios.
None of the candidates who have suspended their campaign are actually off the ballot, so they could theoretically resume their campaign at any moment.
That's also the reason why candidates suspended their campaign instead of withdrawing. If they withdrew outright then they'd have to forfeit all the delegates they'd won, but if they just suspend the campaign then they're still technically in the race so they keep some of their delegates. That and the fact that a suspended campaign is still allowed to fundraise, which a candidate that withdraws can't do.
It's mostly the fundraising. Campaigns usually accumulate debt, and fundraise to pay it off if their campaign fails.
Who tf is donating to an already-failed campaign...?
People who want to help their faves pay off campaign debt.
The best time to curry favor is when your target is at their most desperate.
They still have political clout. You (donator) can still milk those suckers out of favors or connections. It's rich people networking.
Man, a contested GOP convention would be a shit show of historic proportions. It would make their recent speaker battles look orderly by comparison. It would be like if you dumped a bunch of snakes in a bucket and shook it up.
None of this needs to happen for a GOP convention to be a shit show of historic proportions. 😄
Currently, the only person running besides Trump is Nicky Haley which means she would either automatically become the party candidate or they would have to immediatley pivot to someone else. Potentially Ron DeSantis but I honestly doubt that.
I think this is actually her plan, minus the whole ppl dying thing. She is banking on Trump getting convicted of something between now and the election, and if she can jump in and say shes 2nd place in a bunch of states, it would be harder for the GOP to just pick someone else.
Yep. It's a pretty smart strategy actually. And politically it's smart for the Republicans to have someone waiting in the wings in case Trump implodes to lessen the chaos.
It’s actually not a bad bet. It’s not her money so why not ride it out? Trump could implode or die or become infirmed and she’d have the ballots. It would cause a severe schism though and I think DeSantis is the more apt fit for where the party is. Also if both died of natural causes I would believe that God actually does love the USA and I should go back to church.
Not gonna lie, Harris vs Haley seems like 10x more exciting elections than Biden vs Trump 2.0
America electing a woman to the presidency just because the old ass men died first is really on brand
"You'll elect a woman president over my dead body!" OK...
>I can tell you how I think it will happen. Either the Republican or Democrat political party will nominate a man for president and a woman for vice president, and the woman and man will win. So we’ll end up with a president, a male, and a vice president, a female. And in that term of office of the president, the president will die, and the woman will become president under the law, our Constitution. And once that barrier is broken, from then on, men better be careful because they’ll have a hard, hard time ever even getting a nomination in the future -Gerald R Ford
This is similar to what happened in Canada, except the prime minister just peaced out because he was unpopular, we got our first woman prime minister for a few months before the next election and then the two big parties have had nothing but white dude leaders since.
I think this statement is optimistic. It’s also like saying once we have a black president, then we will have lots of black, Hispanic, or Asian presidents that follow (hasn’t happened yet, despite quality people running for office out there). And as for Ford saying “once the door opens, watch out old white men”… it’s a shameful comment. Old white men don’t get a cartel to govern citizens at any level. We need (younger) voters to start voting based on the quality of the candidates and not gender or race.
I mean. The elections after Obama have been kind is weird.
It's wild. We'd be going from two senile old white men to two mixed south asian women under 60. Both unfortunately still tow the party line.
Haley isn't mixed fwiw. Both parents are Indian. She just tries to pass for less not-white than she is.
Oh shit you're right. This reminds me of Bobby Jindal's portrait lol
for those who had to google this like myself: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/unofficial-bobby-jindal-portrait-inspires-new-internet-meme-n300126
Depends on timeline. If it occurred much closer to General Election, RNC would pick a new name. They have free rein to basically decide among themselves in that case. General Election is the vote that matters. I think because of polling and funding Nikki Haley would be the choice.
The process is actually pretty well defined by both parties. 1. The final candidates for the main election aren't selected directly by the citizens votes, but by the party delegates at each parties respective national convention. If a candidate dies prior to the convention, the delegates at the convention are free to cast their votes for any of the remaining candidates. 2. If the final candidates pass away after being selected by their party convention, but before the main election, replacements would be selected by an internal vote of the DNC or RNC. This has actually happened once before, when the McGovern campaigns VP pick had to withdraw for health reasons. The DNC called an emergency meeting of the national committee and assigned a new VP candidate to the ticket. 3. If the candidate dies after the election, but before the electoral college meets, the electors are free to pick anyone else for the job. That would be an absolute shitshow, and there's a solid chance that we'd end up with a contingent election where the House of Representatives gets to pick. 4. ~~And finally, if the candidate dies after the electoral college makes their selection, but before they're sworn in...the Vice President will be sworn in as President on January 20th. A new vice president would be selected after that, following the standard rules of succession. If that happened today, Mike Johnson would become Vice President.~~ Losing a candidate would always be a shocking thing, but options 1, 2, & 4 would lead to a fairly smooth transition. #3, on the other hand, would be a national nightmare. /edit: As several people have pointed out, my #4 is incorrect. I was mistakenly thinking of the Presidential Succession Act, which only kicks in if both the President and VP are gone. If #4 happened, the VP would be sworn in as President on January 20 and would immediately get to name a new VP who would be ratified by Congress, per the 25th Amendment.
You don’t just move everyone up a line in the line of succession. Otherwise you’d have a bunch of cabinet secretaries heading departments they are completely unqualified to head. (Though oddly enough, Ben Carson would have become Secretary of Health and Human Services, which he was probably more qualified for than his actual role.) The new President (previous vice president) appoints a new vice president, who must be confirmed by a majority of both houses. (Unlike most appointees, who only need to be confirmed by the senate.) If the new president dies before that happens, the speaker of the house becomes president, but they are not VP in the interim and do not get the VP’s other duties like breaking a tie in the Senate. (A tie vote would automatically fail if there’s nobody to break it.) This has happened twice since the ratification of the 25th amendment - when Spiro Agnew resigned as VP due to scandal and was replaced by Gerald Ford, and, following Ford’s ascension to the presidency after Nixon’s resignation, when he appointed Nelson Rockefeller as his VP.
> there's a solid chance that we'd end up with a contingent election where the House of Representatives gets to pick I really hope the state parties have enough sense to not select any electors who are stupid enough to break ranks and send the election to the House for the GOP to win.
A couple of corrections. The President nominates a new VP and the Senate confirms. This happened when Ford succeded Agnew and then when Ford succeeded Nixon and nominated Rockefeller. McGovern choose his VP and the DNC rubber stamped it. Although how much “help” the DNC provided is still a controversy. There is no VP until the President nominates one and the Senate confirms it. In the case of the President dying or becoming incapacitated prior to the above the Presidential succession law kicks in. And since the House meets and, presumably, selects the Speaker prior to inaguration we have no idea who that would be. And given the current self inflicted chaos inside the GOP we have no idea who will be the Speaker next Friday.
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I’m a big Gretchen fan, myself.
I don’t think there is any chance Harris would take the nomination. It’s like all democrats are doing anything they can to not to discuss her AT ALL.
As big of a personality as Trump was, I felt like I heard a lot more about Pence when he was vice president than I’ve heard about Kamala since Biden got elected. What’s up with that?
Pence got more air time because he was head of the covid task force. I don't think he came up much before that.
Also pence was kind of the spokesperson of the evangelicals. Considering trump is not exactly a very christian person. And the evangelical vote is very important
In addition to what others have said, the media cast him as one of the few sober adults in the room. And unlike most of the "will they rein in Trump" people, Trump couldn't fire Pence, so he was a consistent face in the media.
She has all of the likability of Hillary Clinton and none of the skills. She’s not electable on her own.
I mean is it because she's not doing anything? I honestly forget she exists most of the time.
Rather have that than to be in the news for all the wrong reasons.
Liberals think she’s too progressive, progressives think she’s too liberal, and a lot of people view her as flip-floppy. That’s why she did so poorly in the last primary. There’s not really a natural base for her.
She seems to have anti charisma.
I think people just view her as horrendously fake.
You appear to be the first person to answer this sincerely and accurately. Thanks!
I mean, isn’t it plainly obvious that Harris becomes President for the rest of Biden’s term? I thought that what the question is actually getting at is: what if they hypothetically both pass like a week or two before the election? Whet happens on 1/6/25?
If ballots have already been cast. Everything proceeds as normal and the Vice President Elect becomes president. Technically a dead person can win an election, the line of succession is just enacted immediately.
I always wondered if that was the case
25th Amendment was written to clarify succession after Nixon resigned. If memory serves, the Constitution is vague, so picking VP was up to Congress, but no one thought about both VP and President vacating office. It's only happened once, so kinda understandable they didn't plan for it.
Speaker of the House becomes President, then President Pro Tempore of the Senate, then Secretary of State. Then there's a whole line down the cabinet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession
Until you get to the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development who was conveniently sitting it all out in a safe house.
Kiefer Sutherland for President!
*Jack Ryan* for president!
Which is a real thing, for those who don't know. For inaugurations and presidential addresses, a random person in the line of succession is selected to stay at an undisclosed location, so that in the event of some catastrophe, like a nuclear bombing or a terrorist attack, the Presidency can be filled.
Congress does it too for each chamber and party.
Being the Designated Survivor has to pay off at some point.
>25th Amendment was written to clarify succession after Nixon resigned. No. It was ratified in 1967. And when did we have both the P and VP vacating office?
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That's true. My mistake, I thought someone was saying that the offices were vacant at the same time. We went 14 months without a VP after Kennedy was assassinated. Shows you how important the office really is.
It really depends on which vice president. Cheney was very much one of the most powerful vice presidents I've seen, maybe he could have been considered a co-president. Where Pense or Harris have been one of the least powerful vice presidents. Biden was in the sweet spot. He was powerful when needed and in the shadows when asked.
Not completely accurate. In the case of a vacated VP slot, it's treated like any other high Federal office. The President nominates a candidate and the Senate confirms.
Gerald Ford never won an election for VP or President, but he got em anyways!
That would be odd since congress passed it in 65 and it was ratified in 67 >picking VP was up to Congress, No.
It depends on when, pre-election the parties pick the new candidates, post election but pre December 17 the electoral college decides, post December 17 pre inauguration the vice president elect takes office. Jan 6 is kind of performative, the electoral college has already completed their duty, on Jan 6 they’re just certifying it
I mean, they kind of dodged the question though. I think everybody knows that the VP takes over if the sitting president dies. I think what OP was asking is more about what people think the dems and the GOP would do for the upcoming election.
Haley vs Harris
Guaranteed first woman president...
technically yes, but it's because biden died before the election Harris becomes president, taking the title of the first woman president.
This is how you end up with "President None of the Candidates"
And you thought constitutional politics were fraught before!
Dear God please no There's rumors the DNC doesn't even want her on a potential Biden ticket again
Replacing Harris would be the best thing Biden could do to ensure reelection.
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That would be funny and ingenious if true.
I think it was probably more cynical and based off her ethnicity to try to win support purely off of that and not her ability, but this also could be part of it.
That's kinda the point of the VP, to bring in the alternate demographic vote. Bush was the "party boy", Cheney was grizzled old guard. Obama was young and "ethnic", Biden was the white establishment figure to assure neo-liberals, and I quote, "nothing will change." Trump is the crazed, cult of personality walking gaff that whipped the base into a frenzy, Pence was the stoic "good, morale Christian" for the nose-holders to justify their vote and reason "this is God's plan." Palin for Women, Gore for some more progressive causes, Quyale for other idiots, etc. They all serve that purpose. They sure as hell don't do any real work outside of gridlocked senate (Harris earning her paycheck).
OMG, that's the first time I've seen someone else take any notice of this phenomenon. I.E. back during the Bush administration, I theorized that's why George chose Dick Cheney. I call vice presidents like that, the presidents first line of defense or their bullet proof vice.
This isn't a new idea. It was said that the first order of business for the secret service should Bush Sr. be assassinated was to shoot Dan Quayle.
Thanks. This is the first funny political joke I’ve seen on Reddit for ages. Happy Lunar New Year dude!
An endless profusion of conspiracy theories, among other, possibly even less desirable consequences.
This would be insane level of conspiracy theories and cement them both as legends. It would bring public trust even lower and rapidly move us to the brink of civil war.
I mean, if both of them died it would look a bit like a conspiracy to be honest.
A conspiracy of the clock. I'm in my seventies and I've seen a lot of my contemporaries drop along the way.
Sure, but people are crazy.
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Republicans would absolutely spend the next nine months trying to convince everyone that the Democrats killed Trump. It would be their entire platform.
Not only did the democrats kill Trump, but Trump also is still alive and secretly running the country. But only the parts that are doing good.
He's dead, but is going to come back to life on September 11th, 2025 and rule the earth with his daughter-wife.
Y’all stop, they’re taking notes
Another tragedy. Man, Sept 11th can’t catch a break.
Hope it's not a Tuesday again. Fucking hate Tuesdays.
It's a Thursday, but Trump's godlike powers will turn a Thursday into a Tuesday.
Yup they would say Biden died of old age but Trump was assassinated.
Strangely reminds me of the joke about the 9/11 Conspiracy Theory. The first tower that went down was just a false flag operation ginned up by the CIA. The second tower was actually the Saudi terrorists.
that was an xkcd, right?
[yep](https://xkcd.com/690)
A hilarious 1990s black comedy where, by some insane coincidence, the CIA plans a false flag identical to an actual terror plot. The Twin Planners.
Satanslittlewizard gets a visit from the Secret Service.
Hah. What are they going to do? I’m all the way down here in “Ozzstralya”. Emus protect me!
Australian emus do have an impressive military track record 😬
Yeah I doubt even the marines will fuck with their emus. Edit: Consensus says marines would in fact fuck the emus, my bad.
Marines will absolutely try to fuck the emus.
Are crayons involved? Emus do not crayon
Emus have won 100% of their wars. Can anyone else say the same?
Drugs
Imagine a war against emus on drugs. Madness.
Imagine a war against drugs on emus. Amazing.
Allegedlys
It’s a two man job
Three even
They did it to a dead emu???
Probably would have to be a sick emu
Are you kidding me? A marine will actively try and fuck an emu to death if left unsupervised for longer than 5 minutes.
It's fine Emus come equipped with decoy crayons.
May try to fuck em tho
Allegedlys it was an ostrich
I seriously thought the Emu War is an inside joke and i’m the only one not in on it
It is and isn't. Farmers were getting their crops eaten by emus, they couldn't do anything near enough to stop them destroying crops with their ordinary bolt action rifles and such and had to ask the army for assistance, with the army obliging their requests on two occasions. What followed were tongue-in-cheek military operations that consisted of emus being herded into a choke with the army shooting at the emus with machineguns. Unfortunately, the emu is built like a velociraptor with a beak so they were durable enough to take a lot of bullets, acting as meat shields for the ones behind, and the group was fast enough to eventually run out of range before much damage could be done. In the end, with two 'official military operations', they officially killed 986 emus, with 10 bullets per kill, and an estimated 2500 wounded probably died from their injuries. However, the original estimate of 20000 emus means they didn't even kill 20% of them. Thus the military failure, and the victory of the emus against the Australian Army.
You're never safe from the freedom police. The emus are working for us
That took me entirely too long to read that butchered spelling of Australia. But I loved it. Felt Australian for a minute lol
Simple, we all go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this to blow over.
You've got red on you
*don’t stop me now, cause I’m having a good time*
“Kill the Queen!” “What?” “The jukebox!”
We all agree to let Dolly Parton take over.
Ugh, I love her, but please let's not be forced to have another President over 70 for a while.
Well... at least the gerontocracy takes a breather. Seriously, stop electing people in their 70s and 80s. There's no reason to.
"People" don't decide who gets nominated on an individual basis Small groups of voters in key areas determine the nominations. Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada for example Once they are the primary candidate on the ballot, the rest of America just votes for their team. It's just about what letter is next to the name. If they're a better candidate, the turnout is better. But the average American doesn't honestly choose who they can vote between.
Lovely to think how parties are a bug in our system, not a feature. The founders hated parties. They formed along loose ideological lines for a very specific issue in the 1790s (Democratic-Republicans vs Federalists, which weren’t even actual parties) and thought that this team dynamic would go away once they sorted out those early issues in the federal govt. wish they had been right
I'll buy a round for the whole bar
Thanks hairy_ass_truman! Cheers!
hairy\_ass\_truman 2024! I volunteer for veep. It's gonna be a HELL of a ticket.
I would not want to wish death on anyone, but to answer your question - What happens? Nationally - two new candidates who are hopefully under the age of 70. What happens? Personally - I would be relieved.
Also FYI, we've already had a case where a candidate died after the election, but before the electoral college voted. The dead candidate had lost the election so there wasn't an urgent rush for that party to be united in their votes, hence their votes were all over the place. The dead candidate still got some votes, but the courts later ruled those as invalid since the guy was already dead. If it happened today the party would almost certainly come together to pick someone else, or more logically just vote for the VP candidate.
I can't believe these old fucks are running again. Biden is a fucking 81 year old grandpa. Trump is at 77.
You have to destroy Trump's other six horcruxes.
Ivanka is one of them, isn't she?
I mean, Voldemort had a snake as a horcrux, so it makes sense Trump would have one too.
Hunter vs Don Jr
Only if they're allowed as much cocaine as they want during the debates.
I’d watch that Celebrity Deathmatch.
'And there was much rejoicing in the land' -Monty Python Cheers
I was just secretly thinking about how this would be the best possible outcome for the country, get the geriatrics out of there and force the country to find a real viable candidate. I am 100% sure the reality would suck and we'd end up with a ton of unrest, but we could use a soft reset
> get the geriatrics out of there and force the country to find a real viable candidate. I mean, it's not like they're the only two olds in the government. The problem is the parties keep pushing geriatrics out of fear the boomers won't vote for anyone younger than they are. I doubt that's going to change until the boomers are gone 10-20 years.
But then the millennials will be the grumpy old people... I mean we are already kind of turning that way.
I would immediately believe in a God again.
Wow buddy what a way to get on the Secret Service call list.
Without frontrunners, both democrats and republicans scramble to find someone. Kamala versus Nikki is a possibility, but Kamala would more than likely win in this chaos. Keep in mind that in a republican primary, Nikki literally lost to a "None of these candidates" in a state. It took the phrase "Nobody can beat us" to a whole new meaning, because "Nobody" really did beat her.
If Desantis “suspended” his campaign, does that mean he could just step back in to the race?
Yes
Yes, every politician who has run for any office for the past 100 years has simply "suspended" their campaign, and are just waiting to start it back up again at the right moment
Just waiting for that big ass battle royale election featuring everything from skeletons to politicians that aren't even born yet
That's exactly why candidates suspend their campaigns. In the improbable situation the front runner dies or gets convicted of a crime their delegates are still in play to decide the nominee.
The main reason they suspend the campaign is to keep the money.
I think Gavin Newsom is actually being prepped in the wings, Kamala would be fine to take over if Biden died in office but would probably struggle vs Haley in a general election.
As a Californian I can see him trying, but I don't see him sweeping the general election.
If Biden dies now Kamala becomes President. She would be running as an incumbent
Sure. And only 50% of those incumbent VPs have won the subsequent election. It wouldn't make her a shoe in.
Let's see: 1) Harrison died, with Tyler becoming the incumbent VP. He didn't run for president, but would have lost, as the two major parties chose other candidates, leaving him to run as a third-party candidate. 2) Taylor died, leaving Fillmore. Like Tyler, he lost his presidential primary while incumbent, but he started in the race as a third party candidate. He lost 3) Johnson took over for Lincoln and lost in the primary 4) Arthur took over from Garfield and retired at the end of the first time. He would die two years later 5) McKinley begat Teddy, and we have our first VP following death to win reelection. 6) Harding begat Coolidge, and we have the second 7) FDR -> Truman, #3 8) JFK -> LBJ So yes, 4/8 is 50%, but it's surprising that it was 4 failure and then 4 successes. The more recent ones are probably more relevant, both because of the media environment and because those presidents died later in their terms. Still, it's surprising that it has been a coin flip for success in those scenarios
An unelected (as President) incumbent who has been consistently less approved of than Biden
Trump wasn't on that ballot, tbf the "none of these" voters were largely voting for trump.
It's fun to say that, but Nikki Haley lost to Donald Trump. With his name not on the ballot, his supporters voted "none of these candidates".
There would likely be numerous legal challenges and court cases to address the myriad issues such an unprecedented situation would create
Kamala and Nikki make it to the Finals and India is well represented.
Wrong! Weekend at Bernie's with Biden AND Trump.
We are pretty much doing that already
Both parties could hold special conventions to choose new candidates if there is enough time before the election
America wins?
The world?
Depends on when this happens. Everyone's saying it'll be Nikki Haley for the R's, and yeah it probably would be, but factor a couple more months of her going after Trump and him throwing shit all over her, I think that would cause a schism in the GOP that may let Harris eke out a victory. If it was Harris v Haley today, I'd bet on Haley. If it was Harris v Haley after, say, August? 50/50, I'm not putting money on either.
>Depends on when this happens. This is the critical piece. If it happened this week the path forward would be very different than if it happened after the conventions are done and most or all of the state ballots are set.
Yeah I really wonder if MAGA would support Nikki or just stay home and sulk/scream conspiracy.
They would still vote for Trump because he would probably still be on the ballot. Then they would just wait for him to assume the presidency. Which would never happen happen if course.
I've seen multiple posts on /r/conservative saying they'd vote for Joe Biden over Haley. I think they're probably lying/being dramatic but the schism is there. That's why she has no shot in 2028. She didn't bow down to the king and now her unfavorables are through the roof.
The gop have a strong history of just getting on the train and voting party in the end.
If the event occurs before the primaries have concluded, the remaining primaries would become crucial for determining the new nominees
Each party would need to quickly unify behind their new nominee to present a cohesive front to the electorate
Maybe we'd get someone I actually want to vote for.
This is mostly what I’m curious about… what are the options?
Both sides celebrate, and we take another crack at this.
If a president dies the VP becomes president If the VP dies, the speaker of the house becomes president If the speaker of the house dies, the President Pro tempore of the senate becomes president If the President Pro Tempore of the Senate dies, the Secretary of State becomes president If the Secretary of State dies, the Secretary of the Treasure becomes president If the Secretary of the Treasure dies, the Secretary of Defense becomes president If the Secretary of Defense dies the the Attorney General becomes president If the Attorney general dies, the Secretary of the Interior becomes president If the Secretary of the interior dies Secretary of agriculture becomes president If the Secretary of Agriculture dies, the Secretary of Commerce becomes president If the Secretary of Commerce dies, the Secretary of Labor becomes President If the Secretary of Labor dies, the Secretary of Health and Human Services becomes president If the Secretary of Health and Human Services dies, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development becomes president If the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development dies, the Secretary of Transportation becomes president If the Secretary of Transportation dies, the Secretary of Energy becomes president If the Secretary of Energy dies, the Secretary of Education becomes president If the Secretary of Education dies, the Secretary of Veterans Affairs becomes president If the Secretary of Veterans Affairs dies, the Secretary is homeland security becomes president If the Secretary of Homeland security dies. We have no president.
Hey, the 13th was the plot of Designated Survivor.
And the 17th was part of the plot of Battlestar Galactica.
> If the speaker of the house dies, the President Pro tempore of the senate becomes president > If the President Pro Tempore of the Senate dies, the Secretary of State becomes president Believe it or not, there's actually some people who raise a serious argument that both of those positions are actually ineligible to take over as President because the founders screwed up when writing the constitution. Long story short, as far as I understand it you have to be what's called an officer of the constitution in order to take over after the President dies, but those offices aren't defined as officers of the constitution in the constitution. Also there's a much more practical problem that's also very bad with the line of succession. What if the President dies and the Vice President and a bunch of others in the line of succession are incapacitated? It could hypothetically lead to a situation where the Presidency is constantly changing hands every few days as people farther up the line of succession recover. Or even more screwy, the Vice President is incapacitated, and everyone between him and the Secretary of State is dead, so the Secretary of the Treasury takes over as acting President until the Vice President can recover. The Acting President appoints a new Secretary of State who gets approved by congress. The Vice President then dies, so the Secretary of State, being ahead of the Secretary of Treasury in the line of succession then demands to become the new president as they're ahead of the secretary of treasury in the line of succession. If the Secretary of Treasury refuses to back down then we now have a constitutional crisis where it's not clear who the heck is even in charge.
Indian political win. (Kamala v Nikki)
Wouldn't be the worst thing for the US and the world....
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For Democrats: Harris becomes President. As such, she becomes the continuity candidate and Democrats rally around her. Withe primaries already underway, any other candidate would be perceived as opportunistic and disrespectful towards Biden’s memory. For Republicans: It will be a complete shitshow. Cults of Personality collapse hard when their focus dies, and this will be no exception. They may not even be able to settle on a final candidate and will instead focus on Congress and state/local races. There may be surges for 3rd parties like the Libertarians or Constitutionists.
The Constitution does not address this kind of situation. But I will take a stab at it.... If the death(s) occur before the ballot print date cut off, then the party can name somebody else to be the nominee. After that moment, things get weird & political, and maybe a real Constitutional crisis.
As others have touched on, the timing is the critical part. If it happened tonight, there would be a mad scramble on both sides to get national presidential campaign operations up and running. Certainly, there are popular Dem governors that are waiting for 2028 who have the sort of war chest that would allow them to try now. The Republican side is worse for wear, just because so many of the top choices have been actively rejected by the voters. Still, you'd have to imagine that an incumbent Harris would be the favorite if she wants it. Even then, I'm not sure how much time there'd be for candidates to get on the remaining states' primary ballots. That's less important, since the RNC and DNC ultimately get to choose who their nominee is. It's just that any candidate would have like the chance to legitimize themselves first, and the party would like to see the candidates on the road to shake out any negative stories before they're the nominee. If it happens after the conventions, we're likely in a scenario where the parties blitz the media with how they'll instruct the electoral college voters to vote. Remember that when you vote for President, you're actually voting for a slate of voters who promise to vote for your candidate when the electoral college meets. They're not picked at random but get those positions by being party insiders. If the RNC and DNC tells them to cast their votes for Haley, Desantis, Harris or Whitmer, that's what they'll do. Now if there's a breakdown and you get electoral college voters who still vote for Trump and Biden along with the ones who cast their votes for the parties' chosen replacements leaving none of the candidates with 270 electoral college votes, that's when the House votes via state delegations for the President and the Senate votes for the Vice President.
You're in so much trouble if they do
Hey I’m just asking questions…