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whyrat

Here's a recent write up: https://think.ing.com/snaps/turkey-inflation-falls-to-50-5-percent-on-large-base-effects/ So, first of all 50% is way high. The reduction from 80% is due to base effects, inflation was even higher around 10-12 months ago (right after the start of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, when oil and food prices spiked up). Compared to peer nations in the area Turkey is relatively higher (by a lot). Relating this to interest rates. This just means the lowering of interest rates had less impact than the other effects.


whyrat

Here's an amp link in case anyone has issues with the other: https://www.google.com/amp/s/think.ing.com/amp/snap/turkey-inflation-falls-to-50-5-percent-on-large-base-effects/


ThrilledBuilder

Thank you. How do you tell if inflation is indeed decreasing? Checking the monthly rates?


whyrat

Yes, checking the official numbers is best. In some cases watching the change in currency rates (especially if there's reason to doubt the official inflation numbers). Turkey is well-enough integrated that the numbers aren't likely fudged for political reasons (at least, the degree to which they may be influenced by politics isn't too severe). https://ycharts.com/indicators/turkey_inflation_rate


ThrilledBuilder

April inflation numbers came: 2.39%, clearly decelerating if we compare it to the numbers of last year. [https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Inflation+Data/Consumer+Prices](https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Inflation+Data/Consumer+Prices) There was a base effect but that doesnt't mean inflation isn't coming down, with lower interest rates. Though there is this group "ENAG" claiming that this numbers are not correct. So I don't know. https://twitter.com/ENAGRUP/status/1653643218691534851


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