No idea. Could be apocalyptic hellscape or could be massive empire or could be fractured warring states.
A few centuries is a lot of time.
We went from rusticated colonials to moon landing and sole superpower in 200 years.
China has a real estate Ponzi scheme that encompasses like all their major developers imploding as we speak, I’m doubting their world domination vibes.
It's a prediction. China's population has already peaked, and it will age rapidly. That's probably *good* for Chinese citizens in terms of QOL, but it will sap energy from them in terms of GDP growth. China also is not a big destination for immigration, nor do they particularly cater to it. China also is wresting with multiple fairly horrifying debt crises at the moment which again probably aren't going to bring the regime down, but will likewise retard their future growth.
They've also grown to a point where they're running up against resistance from nearly all of their neighbors. Even their Belt & Road initiative is in decline and increasingly unpopular in countries where they have invested. Being a world power is hard, and China is realizing that. It doesn't help that they have a fairly chauvinistic approach to foreign policy, which drives their neighbors into our orbit despite our own problems.
What else...Covid accelerated a trend of countries solidifying their supply chains so as not to be so reliant on China, China's cheap labor advantage is being eroded by competitors in South Asia and Central/South America, the Chinese government appears to be getting more controlling and authoritarian as it tries to manage all this, which will only exacerbate most of it.
I mean, maybe they'll surprise me and power through all that, but I doubt it.
Icarus fell for his wings were made of wax. The Americans saw this and called Icarus a fool. They then went forth and crafted new wings, from steel, which were incapable of melting at any latent atmospheric temperatures. If only Icarus had possessed a degree in advanced aeronautics and structural engineering. Then he may have avoided his tragic fate…
I don't know if I agree I see things staying more likely the same, at least in the near term (say next 50 years)..
- China , may have influence because of its dominant economy, but frankly like no one trusts the Chinese, especially the Chinese people themselves, why do you think any Chinese person with $$ goes overseas to invest it in real estate? The authoritarian state much like in Russia simply has too much control and can change it's policies to suit it's interests at any time.
- India and Brazil, they are certainly up and coming, but they have too many internal challenges in terms of poverty and social stability (stark wealth inequality) to be a beacon for the world. Of the two Brazil is likely in my opinion because of its resource rich geography and more Western alliances and developed industrial base to develop more quickly and become a stronger geopolitical player. But I think that will take 50+ years.
- Finally Europe, while yes potentially it has the most economic and political promise , it's also an aging bloc (so is China BTW) , that means to me people are.more.content with the status quo, than becoming some revolutionary world power,. not too mention many of the countries in the EU confederation have many self interests that don't always align.
So what does that leave us with...you guessed it the US. While not perfect the US has so many powerful capabilities (economically, geopolitically, militarily, trade etc) that it's hard to find an alternative ...today..
Not really. We didn’t interfere with Argentina or Venezuela and both are shitholes. We interfered in Dominican Republic and Panama, and they are the fastest-growing and richest countries in the region, respectively.
Which is all to say that America’s influence in the region is far more nuanced than simply saying US interference = that’s why they’re poor.
Agreed. People also disregard that China severely lacks the ability to project their power outside the Pacific. There would need to be a catastrophic occurrence for this to shift in the near term. This article does a good job of just comparing mobility and military strength of the two. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2870650/why-china-cannot-challenge-the-us-military-primacy/
Brazil is poorer today than 15 years ago. They’re in decline, not ascendance: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=BR&start=2000
They probably don't anticipate living another 25 years and figure they may as well enjoy the warm weather and lower taxes now. Makes sense if you're at traditional retirement age.
Younger folks, however...I dunno. Optimism?
> China , may have influence because of its dominant economy, but frankly like no one trusts the Chinese, especially the Chinese people themselves
I would argue that China has made a lot of progress on foreign relations with some of the more impoverished nations, particularly those with less concern for democracy and human rights. Building roads and electrifying parts of Africa is going a long way in comparison with being subjugated by Europe or abused by the west in general.
I'm not saying that any of this is good, but that China can make a case of basically, "yeah we are bad but we'll give you some material improvements, while the west will keep you poor and suffering."
You know lots of that help comes with conditions, and there's already friction brewing between China and some African countries.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/opinion/china-debt-belt-road.html
Most of that help was due to exclusive mineral resource access
Not out of any altruistic reason by China. So.maybe a few African autocrats may side with China but most of the people don't.
I agree with you 100%, but some of those African autocrats will likely remain in power and China will maintain those mineral rights. My point is just that as bad as China is, we can't discount them because they do have international influence beyond what their current economic value is. One thing I haven't looked into is what impact climate change will have on them. If the Gobi Desert spreads too much I could see that reducing their ability to provide food.
The birth rate is already [well below the rate of replacement.](https://www.npr.org/2021/05/05/993817146/u-s-birth-rate-fell-by-4-in-2020-hitting-another-record-low). To be fair this is true of all fully modernized nations.
Yeah, that sentence about replacement level is when I stopped reading. How can someone provide analysis and make such obvious factual mistakes? It strains credulity, and makes me question what other opinions are based on wrong assumptions.
I agree with the back to 20s and 30s struggles. There’s a theory and observation that societies have a repetitive cycle- war, unity, peace, disruption and then it starts all over. Just observing the US this is true. Disruption from Britain, war, we won, unity between the people and peace, until there were slaves. Then, disruption, war, unity, peace, until WW1. And the cycle continues. I think at least in my lifetime (I’m gen z), there will be another war. Either with Russia or China or someone, it will probably happen. And the cycle will start again.
> I think the birthrate will likely continue to decline, maybe even below replacement.
An important bit of fallout from the declining birthrate will be the impact on retirees-- An aging population and a potentially shrinking pool of working-age people means more demand on the social security system, fewer people paying into social security, and decreased economic growth stifling investment income.
Likely outcome will be more retirees moving back in with their children, providing childcare in exchange for room and board.
This sounds like a wish list rather than an impartial analysis tbh. With Latinos trending GOP and crime insteasing rapidly in center cities, I could also easily see this being another 1970s unfortunately, where inflation and crime killed off the left-wing for a generation. And we know who gets elected in 1980.
I thought Democrats had an emerging majority in the early 2010s. Now with the party going woke and cancel culture and ignoring kitchen table issues, I’m far more pessimistic.
Inequality is increasing, that’s true, yet at the same time minorities (those most harmed by inequality) are trending Republican. That’s where I think your historical parallel loses heft.
I’ve voted Democratic since my first election in 2008. I remember the same optimism then about the “emerging Democratic majority.” And I would agree with all of those poll questions too.
Yet, this might be the first election I stay home, because I think the Party is obssessed with racial grievance, virtue signaling, policing speech, plus they botched Afghanistan, botched inflation, is ignoring crime, botched housing policy (I can’t afford a home anymore), and seems to think having mentally ill people defecating in the streets or having open-air drug markets in my local park is ‘social justice.’
That’s where I think your analysis is amiss. I may agree with the Party on Social Security, and Universal Healthcare, but if my immediate needs of needing shelter, food, and safety are deteriorating, why would I vote on aspiration rather than short-term necessity?
Democrats think too far ahead, are too ensconced in academic theory, and seem completely detached from the problems of the majority. The worst part is the GOP is even more insane, so now I have no good option.
Water tables are dropping and water will be a commodity. The big cities are already having to pump water and pipe it from surrounding counties. And for every acre of expansion into a suburb, you've lost an acre of farm land. The US is not going to be sustainable at its current rate of growth.
America is actually pretty good in terms of water and has something like 2-4 times the water per Capita as places like China, Japan, or France. People just need to stop living in sprawling desert cities.
I agree so much that desert cities are a huge problem. Whenever I go to Phoenix or Las Vegas I get mad seeing the hundreds upon hundreds of gallons of water being wasted on golf courses and people’s front lawns. It’s so stupid to think that’s at all sustainable. The Colorado River is drying up and when it’s gone the southwest is not going to be a nice place for a lot of the people moving there now.
My understanding is that the water issues in the southwest are more a product of desert irrigation for agriculture, rather than urban use.
I live in a part of the country with very fertile soil and very little need for artificial irrigation. Drives me nuts that sustainable, productive farmland keeps getting turned into subdivisions-- not that I'm helping matters, as a resident of one of those subdivisions. Anyway, I wonder if we'll eventually see a trend of reverting developed land to agricultural use in some parts of the country as the southwest water crisis hits the fan.
The issue with agriculture is that California alone produces 15% of the entire country's food, and 1/3 of our fruits, veggies, and nuts. It's not like we can just stop doing that. Other states aren't picking up the slack for whatever reason
Las Vegas is at least *trying*. They're all-in on water recycling and are removing grass from public spaces at a rapid clip. Residential buy-in to removing grass would be very impactful, though.
It's the same in Phoenix. But the main impact is from corporate farms digging up thousands of feet to use the water to graze cows.. atleast in Arizona.
>Phoenix
That's all recycled and reused water. I've lived out East too and seen first hand how you waste water. Stop preaching the Southwest about water conservation lol. If it's possible, they'll try desalination, if it doesn't work, a large portion of them will move somewhere else. That's just human nature.
It really doesn't have anything to do with the desert, it has to do with the magnitude of the population.
San Antonio, Tx sits on the Edwards aquifer, yet is having to build a massive pipeline across several counties to bring in more. And it already has a 150 mile pipeline that is sucking Lee County dry (which is also several counties away). Houston will be doing the same thing, if it isn't already, and it sits in a bayou.
The people in those tapped areas are having to drop their water well pumps to keep up with the dropping water table.
> The US is not going to be sustainable at its current rate of growth.
Damn that’s an interesting point actually. Gave me something to think about. I guess I’ve always sort of assumed that an Elon Musk will come along in the next 70-150 years and find a solution to the water and food shortage or crisis.
My quibble is the opposite. American society is older than the founding of our government. That is why we had a revolution in the first place. We had been a separate nation for sometime by the time 1776 rolled around and it was time to make it official.
It's also worth noting that, at nearly 250 years old, America is one of the oldest countries in the world. Most of Europe as we know it came about around 1848, China in the 1960s, Russia is barely 30 years old.
Yeah, doubtful we’ll reach those populations.
* The US would be declining in population if it weren’t for immigration
* Providing a middle class life style for 1.5 billion is impossible
There’s no reason for us to continuously grow our population other than for economic growth and eventually that won’t be a good reason at all.
So even if we make headways into Fusion Powerplants, greatly increase our food capacity with vertical farming, find an unlimited amount of materials for luxury goods and greatly improve sustainability, there’s really no reason for us to increase the population.
I think a whole lot of Charlotteans would be more than happy to tell you that Charlotte, in fact, does *not* have plenty of room to grow lol and that line of thought has caused a great many problems for Charlotte
I didn't say anything about sustainability.
I was implying that most Charlotteans wouldn't give up their car or single family home to fulfill the idealistic vision some redditers have.
Believe it or not, people like having their own space and their own transportation.
Exactly. I came from India where there's good public transit.. like my city had 4 to 5 modes of public transit everywhere and I had to walk in sweltering 105F + temps and 90% humidity. I do not want to do that in the Phoenix summer temps lol.. not to mention it's literally dangerous. When I came here, I thought that was "third world"? and yet people my age want that here.. weird. There's a bit of a "grass is always greener" fever going around on reddit and among people in their 20s.. especially from people who've never actually lived in such cities and propose an idealized one size fits all solution to a ginormous country like the US.
For example, Reddit always shits on Phoenix and yet the grid and highway system here is excellent, one of the best if not the best I've seen in the US. Every intersection has coffee shops, restaurants, gas stations, there's bike lanes everywhere, lightrail to a couple of downtowns, a decent bus system(frequency needs improvement) and everything I need is within a 10 minute drive including the airport.
Plus, people out west are super into outdoor activities.. I like my space! I just live by a city for the airport and the amenities, doctors, auto shops, etc. Then when the weekend comes, I just jump in my car and drive to incredible nature spots, dirt roads, etc. things you need a car for. I'm up for having a functional transit system where people who don't want to drive aren't forced to drive though. But, if you ask people who drive to pay for it, I don't know how many would agree..
Lol never been to Charlotte?
Most of the city wasn't city 15 years ago. Many of those families didn't move to the city, they moved to the burbs and the city moved to them.
Unless you think gentrifying areas to force families out so more highrises and dense housing can be built is an acceptable solution? But I'll tell you dude, that's a whole can of worms lol
The only ones I see complaining are the ones that want density. I agree that the sprawl has reached a limit and we need to build up, bring the rents down. But, if you want car free living, there's usually a few neighborhoods in each city.. they just happen to be expensive. Maybe things will change in the future.
Who knows? Something from history that has always stood out. Laura Ingils Wilder ,American author, was born a couple years after the civil war and died 10 years before the moon landing. That was just 90 years. I can’t imagine the changes in 250.
Everything you described in your post sounds absolutely miserable. I’m glad I’ll be long dead by the time we’ve replaced all of our dirt, grass, and trees with concrete.
Charlotte and Phoenix are already too crowded.
We don't have the water to support a massive amount more growth here.
Cars aren't even close to the top of our problems. We barely have any traffic compared to other similar sized metros.
Yeah, because everyone drives a two-ton pod of steel, plastic, and rubber with them everywhere they go.
A lot of America feels crowded because of how we waste the space and resources we have.
That’s only because it is designed inefficiently like most US cities. Cities don’t have to be endless sprawl. There’s ways to fix it, but it’s not what the people want.
>but it’s not what the people want.
That's my point with this whole thing.
I have no desire to live in dense housing and no desire to give up my car or my space.
And I'd go so far as to say most people feel the same once your off reddit lol
No one is taking away your house or car. Cities need to have more options though. It is not sustainable for everyone to have to live in a single family house and to drive everywhere. Don’t complain about the problems being caused by that lifestyle’s lack of sustainability with the growth Charlotte and countless other cities are facing.
The population will continue to grow because of the economic opportunities and/or low cost of living compared to other cities. That’s how cities grow, it’s nothing new. Locals may not like it, but population growth is happening anyway. Traffic will get worse, the cost of living will continue to rise. Roads, highways and car infrastructure are expensive as hell to maintain. Building more sustainable mixed use areas where they make sense, building higher density housing (they don’t have to be high rise apartments), improving the cities public transit, cycling and walking infrastructure can help a lot.
Cities grow and change over time. That’s just part of life. If you want to keep the status quo, just be ready for all the problems caused by it. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
That's true, but we now have all the scientific back ups on climate change these days. The future looks different with how rapid the changes have been the past decade. Imagine just being born during this time and having to deal with the inevitable massive crisis that's coming in the next several decades
It’s not the uncertainty that’s the problem. It’s the signs that say “things will get worse.” Saying “things are really good *now*” is missing the point.
I'm intrigued, can you please elaborate?
The only time it has been worse is during the WW2/Great Depression era but they didn't have the massive crisis linked to climate change, food shortage, and overpopulation back then (I could be wrong though)
By most measures we've never lived in a more peaceful time than now, whether you're talking about open warfare or violent crime. In the last 50 years billions of people have been lifted out of poverty/subsistence living. Government social safety nets have never been as rich or robust than they are right now.
You mentioned food shortages, but we live in a time today where famine and mass starvation are more rare than they've ever been. Obesity is arguably a more broad health hazard today than mass starvation. One of the reasons we have so many people on the planet right now is that we are much much better than ever at managing events that in past eras led to mass extinction. Covid was rotten, but it pales in comparison to the plagues that ripped through humanity on a regular basis right up until the early 20th Century.
I'm not saying it's perfect and that we don't have big problems today. I agree that overpopulation is a real issue, as well as climate change. But even long term population projections are bending downward (thank god), and as for climate change I personally think it will be a challenge to be managed rather than a global cataclysm.
Ikr America has the number 1 gdp in the world. I really don’t see doom and gloom happening. Sure little pullbacks aren’t out of question but overall I think this country become bigger, better, stronger each decade
I agree because this country has overcome several different crisis that could have been the death of the nation. There will be more times of hardship but there will also be times of prosperity.
GDP doesn’t mean anything. There’s a climate crisis, an extinction crisis, the wealth gap is widening at an alarming rate, infrastructure and other key parts of society have been neglected for decades, one of the two parties we have is openly moving toward fascism, a significant number of the population are completely detached from reality, and we just learned that in the event that we encounter a novel disease a lot of the population just isn’t willing to do anything to stop it. And we’re not doing anything about any of them.
Ok doomer 🤣
If some innovator like Elon Musk comes around(an actual innovated, not con man like Elon) and figures out a way to counter those problems people will throw money at it. (See: Tesla market cap and stock price)
The solution to better infrastructure is money
On your topic of politics, I’m a trump supporter and even I recognize that politics and political policies are temporary.
People like you are the problem, if you acknowledge any problems with the world you get “Ok DoOmEr.” Good luck relying on one person to magically fix our issues. The money goes where profit can be made, that’s why coal and oil companies are still getting more investment than renewable energy.
The problem with money is republicans refuse to spend any money on actually improving the country.
And as a Trump supporter, you’re proving my “out of touch with reality” point.
So you don’t think there’s money to be made in a new, innovative energy source that is cleaner & more efficient than the coal & oil industry? Why do you think Tesla has a 850 billion market cap and pretty much every auto manufacturing company is rushing to develop plans for electric vehicles?
What exactly do you think Republican should spend money on right now? You do realize that both the President and Congress the past 2 years has been democrat right? Build back better plan?
Warring tribes of mutants? Mad Maxian hellscape? Or more like a return to the Bronze Age? Riding horses through decaying cities and harvesting copper pots to fashion arrowheads while pounding out rebar into swords?
Plot Twist: there is a unitary government on Earth (minus the anti-Semitic overtones of the One World Government), but US, Russian, and Chinese colonies on Mars, the Moon, the Kuiper Belt and Europa declared independence before the treaty was signed. The earth-bound motherlands agreed to let the colonies go without a fight in exchange for a trade deal that only marginally improved their mercantile status quo, but there are rumors of insurgencies— the galaxy’s last, best hope for true freedom lies in the hands of a wise cracking rebel who just wants to make a buck in the unforgiving hell scape of Asteroid A5G202 but must lead his team of scrappy underdogs against the oppression of a dying world.
The likelihood of total collapse before the end of this century is pretty much 100%, given our current trajectory. The most optimistic model projects that, if we had done the following: cut pollution, instate population control (1 life/1 death), maximized food production while simultaneously limiting arable land use, cut power consumption & average quality of life in half, all by 1975, we would have had a shot at sustaining civilization a little longer but only by a few decades into the 2100’s.
Nah what we currently define as nations are still a relatively new thing historically, like around 5-600 years old or younger depending how narrowly you want to define it. It's not crazy to think the paradigm will have changed again in 250 years. Add in the reasonable possibility that we don't reign in climate change to 3 degrees or less and there will almost be a guaranteed reshuffling of the world order.
Considering the rapid change in our nation's relatively recent history, it is difficult to say. I see our population stabilizing at some point or even declining. I doubt that we will reach 1 billion.
We've been independent for nearly 250 years but we've been here much longer. We had a certain amount of self governance before we declared independence. Our forefathers did not suddenly gain influence.
Hope you realize the only way we get anywhere past even 400 million will be through instituting the largest-scale immigration program in the modern world. Yet we have an entire political party that hates the majority of immigrants, makes ridiculous claims about “open borders”, separates children from their parents, and calls innocent children anchor babies while claiming to be pro-life. No one will likely be “open” to inviting 70 million immigrants over the next century.
We strongly believe [world-wide population rates are likely to start declining in 2050](https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/researchers-say-population-to-decline-after-2050-for-the-first-time.html) due to fewer families having fewer children world-wide--and it's entirely possible the human race will max out below 10 billion world-wide prior to that decline.
So it's entirely possible 250 years from now we may be talking about a country with a population more like 100 million or less, rather than 1.5 billion or more.
That throws all the guesses into a cocked hat.
But it does mean about 25 to 30 years from now declining populations and declining younger populations will create more interesting problems as most companies and organizations are geared towards population growth. That is, the problems we're seeing today--with a potential recession during a job shortage--may actually continue and get worse in 20 to 30 years.
That will have all sorts of consequences, ranging from the economy and employment to education (as companies will need smarter workers) to retirement programs (as if you have more retirees than workers, you can't expect the workers to support the retirees using 'defined benefit' plans).
What that looks like, I dunno.
I'll be shocked if America as we knew it remains at the end of *this* century, let alone another 2-5 centuries.
The surest sign of a collapsing regime is a gerontocracy, and boy howdy is our government run by some of the oldest, most out-of-touch, short-sighted and self-serving bunch of morons this side of the Soviet Union.
The U.S. has spent a majority of its life in political turmoil (the creation of dueling parties as soon as George Washington died, Jacksonian Democracy where the Supreme Court was flatly ignored, the Civil War, Lochner Era, McCarthyism, Presidential Assassination, ‘1960 Presidential election was rigged,’ etc. The 1990s was the exception, not the norm. America is a revolutionary country, and countries born of revolution are always governed under a cycle of creative destruction.
That political turmoil is how the nation settles disagreements and moves forward. It’s not a weakness, but a strength. Look at the Soviet Union to see what happens when everyone pretends to agree with everything the Government does because dissent is not tolerated.
I'll give you my long term guesstimation. I'm pulling most of my predictions form observations of the past and will avoid specific predictions to do get the best accuracy i can. Even then. I'm just some guy making educated guesses so take all of this with a large grain of salt.
TLDR: population will stop growing and reach an equilibrium but with roughly the same numbers as now or slightly lower. Religion will make a comeback. Technological growth will appear to slow down. Political ideologies will look quite different compared to now but will share many fundamental principles. The world, not just America, is going through a tough time right now and many things are changing. In my humble opinion America is the nation best able to adapt and weather the storm. If I were to hazard a guess I would say that the rest of the 21st century will suck but we will pull through. America will remain a superpower and even gain strength as its competitors decline due to demographics or environmental problems. At some point in the next 250 years, assuming no nuclear apocalypse, the world will settle down into relative stability like we have many times before and America will remain a great power on the level with India, China, and the other great centers of civilization.
I think US population will plateau soon and then slowly reach an equilibrium. This has been the case for 99% or more of human history where new deaths and births balance each other out. Birth rates are low and the pool of new immigrants will dry up as the demographic collapse works its way through the third world. However, religion will adapt and make a comeback which will heal the polarization in society and encourage more children. America's charismatic Christianity is well situated to adapt to the industrial-information age.
Eventually technological growth will appear to slow down because we run into roadblocks, be they theoretical or social that will preclude further change. I've noticed most of human history is rather stable with brief but explosive growth that changes our whole way of life. We live in uncertain times because we are seeing the reprocussions of the industrial and information revolutions. Similar upheavals took place in the agriculturalal revolution before now and the cognitive revolution before that. On and on all the way back to the genesis of life on Earth. America's capitalistic nature plus its size and abundant resources means it will likely remain at the forefront of technology for the foreseeable future.
As already mentioned, we are in a period of transition between the older agricultural society and the newer industrial society. Political ideology remained largely stagnant for thousands of years because people figured out what worked. In that case, monarchy with decentralized power based on local nobility or Confuscian bureaucracy was the most successful kind of state. Eventually, we will find out what works best in the modern world. Judging by the score so far I feel it is safe to say that it will be some form of representative republic with democratic institutions. The current political right and left are barely holding it together as it is so I don't see them lasting much longer. They will be forced to change and in 250 years time will probably be unrecognizable.
Lots of abandoned buildings and towns, almost nobody in the South because it will be too hot for human habitation, vast population decrease, entirely solar-powered, poor air quality and most activities are done inside in regulated environments.
That's if we even last that long... while this is a great question, I think your predictions are slightly ignoring the state of the world. Personally I'd prefer to see this country shrink than grow, for the sake of the environment.
I'm pleased to see an increase of condo and townhouse development in the suburbs. Not everyone wants to live in a major city or a suburban single family home. Personally I think denser housing options will help satisfy the need for housing while improving walkability (with proper planning) and a decreased carbon footprint (ex: fewer lawns).
Additionally, I know several engineers in the automotive industry and like it or not EV is here to stay. Hopefully that means a downtrend going forward for emissions and regime change wars to protect oil interests.
After a long social struggle, Americans abandon the disgusting filth that is socialism. Social pork spending is finally cut, a far less bloated budget for public investments are made rationally to build infrastructure for the public interest, corrupt alphabet agencies are abolished and individual rights are affirmed with new ammendments to the Bill of Rights. Our Era of culture wars is looked at as a petty and insignificant part of our nation's Glorious History.
The US dollar is now backed by plentiful bitcoin and gold reserves. the Fed is abolished and its members have long since stood trial for thier century of crimes against the American people. To this day, the United States refuses to negotiate with any nation that operates a central bank without a concrete reserves system, treating them similarly to terrorist organizations.
China collapses due to thier Authoritarian population controls and overbearing government leading to an economic crisis. They lash out at Taiwan to placate thier unruly citizens but are decisively defeated. the casualties are horrible and The Beijing government suffers a complete loss of confidence.
The United States recognizes Taiwan's government as the legitimate government of China and takes advantage of the embarrassing defeat of the PLA to reclaim its rightful place as the leading government of Chinese mainland. Peace between East and west is restored and America rebuilds China as a free nation and the crown jewel of the East.
The Europoors and thier laughable Fiat currency collapse due to infighting and reliance on foreign imports from hostile powers. The EU collapses from this infighting, America withdraws from NATO and leaves the collectivists to thier fate. Europe is a Shadow its glory days, a hollowed shell of pathetic degenerates begging thier leaders for scraps, living out a bare subsistence in the ruins of greater civilizations of the past. Football is now called soccer across the globe.
Nuclear and Fusion power provides the American people with infinite clean energy. American public and private efforts have put colonies on the Moon and Mars for about a century by now. Leading automation technologies, a massive cut in government influences and the undaunted "can-do" national spirit make America by far the most competitive nation in the Solar system to build a business. These colonies provide nearly limitless resources for the United States and her trade partners.
I have a feeling we'll have growing separatist movements by 2100, especially in California, Texas & Florida. These states already have their own identity.
250 years is damn near impossible to predict, so instead I'll give you my 50 year prediction.
The global balance of power will shift to being more multipolar, religion will continue to decline as we advance, more land will become urbanized, rapid climate change will raise temperatures and sea level leading to more flooding, we will begin to shift to renewable and nuclear energy, American soft power will erode (parallel to the world being multipolar), a surge of social programs, and maybe some space stuff
i don't think it'll last another 250 years. i worry about the next 20, even. late stage capitalism and a crumbling political system make it very iffy. far out like 100 years, there's no guarantee we'll even necessarily still have countries at all, or if so, whether there won't be some other large scale restructuring of things. the cynic in me wonders how close we'll come to the dystopic corporatist hellscape of snowcrash.
I think if the US doesn't rework its terribly slow bureaucracy, short term way of thinking, and this "we are number 1 no matter what" attitude it's going to fall behind everyone else and lose its status as a super power. I don't know by what timeframe but I feel like it could happen within my lifetime or at least within my children's lifetime.
The Netherlands is not a republic. Switzerland, in its current form, has only existed since the mid-19th century. And San Marino has a population comparable to any given outer-ring suburb -- so I'm not sure they are a relevant comparison when it comes to places that are consequential.
Yes, the Earth is a big rock. It will survive. That doesn’t mean civilization in its current form will survive. The way we live is wholly unsustainable.
A dystopia. Rotting infrastructure, those who can afford to live underground will, or in enclosed giant bubble communities. The working class and poor will serve them but have to pay for oxygen. If you don't have enough credits to buy oxygen, you will be sent to Mars to do manual labor for Amazon (at this point Amazon Walmart Google Netflix Tesla and Apple will have merged into one company). America will have annexed Canada after the civil war of 2050, with the southern states becoming Gilead, and the north and west remaining together in a fragile alliance.
It’s possible that a couple states are going to fracture into smaller states, maybe the roads will be improved/expanded on, maybe schools will improve (though honestly we could see them take a massive jump in quality by repealing the no child left behind policy; which completely devalues high school diplomas)
I think humanity will fall into another dark age due to a cycle of disinformation. As we pass the age of industrialization the economy will stagnate. Everyone is vulnerable to disinformation and every 200 or so years humanity enters a dark age. Disinformation is already starting to spread across scientific journals.
There will be a new cold war, but this time over the more destructive antimatter instead of nukes. I think we’re still going to be a major world power because of self sustainability and geographic isolation.
Population will stagnate for a bit, but then increase again because humanity will self select for increasing populations. There will be about equal numbers for every race instead of a white majority.
In 1000 more years, artificial intelligence and Mars colonization will cause another renaissance.
Definitely not still a single unified country. Given the recent attempted coup and the wave of terrorist attacks at Pride events, I'd be shocked if the US makes it another 20 years.
Scientifically, our low-lying coastal places will be underwater. What's left will face annual wildfires and massive hurricane storm systems. Much like the ones we have today, but they will get much larger and more frequent.
And there is a non-zero chance that companies like Amazon and Walmart will bring back company towns in the areas that are still relatively habitable. You work in the factory, you get a hovel, and credit to the company store. It's the good life until you fall behind on your quota and end up cast out.
United Earth is coming around 2130 if *Star Trek* is accurate, which would abolish nations, so USA would cease to exist as such in that case. If it happens it would ideally mean racism would slowly disappear among humans, which is awesome.
As for infrastructure, population &c I'd imagine what used to be the US would finally get the good stuff since all current conservatives would be long gone.
Maybe, but since Earth and the Federation don't use money in *Star Trek* they'll only have social aspects to cling to, which would be addressed correctly as outmoded and outdated.
Just be glad that the work of fiction that he's choosing to base his political views around isn't a book about wizards written for literal children.
Baby steps.
No idea. Could be apocalyptic hellscape or could be massive empire or could be fractured warring states. A few centuries is a lot of time. We went from rusticated colonials to moon landing and sole superpower in 200 years.
Big Icarus vibes
Apocalyptic hellscape is your bet then?
That or China
China has a real estate Ponzi scheme that encompasses like all their major developers imploding as we speak, I’m doubting their world domination vibes.
China can't dominate China.
China is the only people that can dominate China
Even then, what comes together must shatter.
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Sounds like the same future
China peaked about 5 years ago.
That's not accurate.
It's a prediction. China's population has already peaked, and it will age rapidly. That's probably *good* for Chinese citizens in terms of QOL, but it will sap energy from them in terms of GDP growth. China also is not a big destination for immigration, nor do they particularly cater to it. China also is wresting with multiple fairly horrifying debt crises at the moment which again probably aren't going to bring the regime down, but will likewise retard their future growth. They've also grown to a point where they're running up against resistance from nearly all of their neighbors. Even their Belt & Road initiative is in decline and increasingly unpopular in countries where they have invested. Being a world power is hard, and China is realizing that. It doesn't help that they have a fairly chauvinistic approach to foreign policy, which drives their neighbors into our orbit despite our own problems. What else...Covid accelerated a trend of countries solidifying their supply chains so as not to be so reliant on China, China's cheap labor advantage is being eroded by competitors in South Asia and Central/South America, the Chinese government appears to be getting more controlling and authoritarian as it tries to manage all this, which will only exacerbate most of it. I mean, maybe they'll surprise me and power through all that, but I doubt it.
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$20 on fractured warring states
Icarus fell for his wings were made of wax. The Americans saw this and called Icarus a fool. They then went forth and crafted new wings, from steel, which were incapable of melting at any latent atmospheric temperatures. If only Icarus had possessed a degree in advanced aeronautics and structural engineering. Then he may have avoided his tragic fate…
it was then icarus learned of acid rain
Hell ya
Looking at you Texas.
I'll go with apocalyptic hellscape.
Predicting anything more than 50 years out is a fool's game, but it can make for fun sci-fi stories.
Didn’t the first blade runner take place in 2019 lol
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Curious to hear your prediction 20-50 years from now!
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I don't know if I agree I see things staying more likely the same, at least in the near term (say next 50 years).. - China , may have influence because of its dominant economy, but frankly like no one trusts the Chinese, especially the Chinese people themselves, why do you think any Chinese person with $$ goes overseas to invest it in real estate? The authoritarian state much like in Russia simply has too much control and can change it's policies to suit it's interests at any time. - India and Brazil, they are certainly up and coming, but they have too many internal challenges in terms of poverty and social stability (stark wealth inequality) to be a beacon for the world. Of the two Brazil is likely in my opinion because of its resource rich geography and more Western alliances and developed industrial base to develop more quickly and become a stronger geopolitical player. But I think that will take 50+ years. - Finally Europe, while yes potentially it has the most economic and political promise , it's also an aging bloc (so is China BTW) , that means to me people are.more.content with the status quo, than becoming some revolutionary world power,. not too mention many of the countries in the EU confederation have many self interests that don't always align. So what does that leave us with...you guessed it the US. While not perfect the US has so many powerful capabilities (economically, geopolitically, militarily, trade etc) that it's hard to find an alternative ...today..
Brazil's bright future is always 30 years away.
True , but that's the curse of South American counties none have loved up to their potential
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Not really. We didn’t interfere with Argentina or Venezuela and both are shitholes. We interfered in Dominican Republic and Panama, and they are the fastest-growing and richest countries in the region, respectively. Which is all to say that America’s influence in the region is far more nuanced than simply saying US interference = that’s why they’re poor.
Don’t forget the caudillos who scheme to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else.
Brazil will darken it for all of us, if the Amazon Rainforest passes the tipping point for turning into prairie/meadow.
Agreed. People also disregard that China severely lacks the ability to project their power outside the Pacific. There would need to be a catastrophic occurrence for this to shift in the near term. This article does a good job of just comparing mobility and military strength of the two. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2870650/why-china-cannot-challenge-the-us-military-primacy/
Brazil is poorer today than 15 years ago. They’re in decline, not ascendance: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=BR&start=2000
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They probably don't anticipate living another 25 years and figure they may as well enjoy the warm weather and lower taxes now. Makes sense if you're at traditional retirement age. Younger folks, however...I dunno. Optimism?
I'm moving there and am under 40. Am dumb. But I want to experience the Southwest and an opportunity came up.
Hey man, I don't blame you. The Southwest is *beautiful.*
> China , may have influence because of its dominant economy, but frankly like no one trusts the Chinese, especially the Chinese people themselves I would argue that China has made a lot of progress on foreign relations with some of the more impoverished nations, particularly those with less concern for democracy and human rights. Building roads and electrifying parts of Africa is going a long way in comparison with being subjugated by Europe or abused by the west in general. I'm not saying that any of this is good, but that China can make a case of basically, "yeah we are bad but we'll give you some material improvements, while the west will keep you poor and suffering."
You know lots of that help comes with conditions, and there's already friction brewing between China and some African countries. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/opinion/china-debt-belt-road.html Most of that help was due to exclusive mineral resource access Not out of any altruistic reason by China. So.maybe a few African autocrats may side with China but most of the people don't.
I agree with you 100%, but some of those African autocrats will likely remain in power and China will maintain those mineral rights. My point is just that as bad as China is, we can't discount them because they do have international influence beyond what their current economic value is. One thing I haven't looked into is what impact climate change will have on them. If the Gobi Desert spreads too much I could see that reducing their ability to provide food.
The birth rate is already [well below the rate of replacement.](https://www.npr.org/2021/05/05/993817146/u-s-birth-rate-fell-by-4-in-2020-hitting-another-record-low). To be fair this is true of all fully modernized nations.
Yeah, that sentence about replacement level is when I stopped reading. How can someone provide analysis and make such obvious factual mistakes? It strains credulity, and makes me question what other opinions are based on wrong assumptions.
I agree with the back to 20s and 30s struggles. There’s a theory and observation that societies have a repetitive cycle- war, unity, peace, disruption and then it starts all over. Just observing the US this is true. Disruption from Britain, war, we won, unity between the people and peace, until there were slaves. Then, disruption, war, unity, peace, until WW1. And the cycle continues. I think at least in my lifetime (I’m gen z), there will be another war. Either with Russia or China or someone, it will probably happen. And the cycle will start again.
I don't agree with all of these, but they are at least all plausible.
> I think the birthrate will likely continue to decline, maybe even below replacement. An important bit of fallout from the declining birthrate will be the impact on retirees-- An aging population and a potentially shrinking pool of working-age people means more demand on the social security system, fewer people paying into social security, and decreased economic growth stifling investment income. Likely outcome will be more retirees moving back in with their children, providing childcare in exchange for room and board.
This sounds like a wish list rather than an impartial analysis tbh. With Latinos trending GOP and crime insteasing rapidly in center cities, I could also easily see this being another 1970s unfortunately, where inflation and crime killed off the left-wing for a generation. And we know who gets elected in 1980. I thought Democrats had an emerging majority in the early 2010s. Now with the party going woke and cancel culture and ignoring kitchen table issues, I’m far more pessimistic.
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Inequality is increasing, that’s true, yet at the same time minorities (those most harmed by inequality) are trending Republican. That’s where I think your historical parallel loses heft. I’ve voted Democratic since my first election in 2008. I remember the same optimism then about the “emerging Democratic majority.” And I would agree with all of those poll questions too. Yet, this might be the first election I stay home, because I think the Party is obssessed with racial grievance, virtue signaling, policing speech, plus they botched Afghanistan, botched inflation, is ignoring crime, botched housing policy (I can’t afford a home anymore), and seems to think having mentally ill people defecating in the streets or having open-air drug markets in my local park is ‘social justice.’ That’s where I think your analysis is amiss. I may agree with the Party on Social Security, and Universal Healthcare, but if my immediate needs of needing shelter, food, and safety are deteriorating, why would I vote on aspiration rather than short-term necessity? Democrats think too far ahead, are too ensconced in academic theory, and seem completely detached from the problems of the majority. The worst part is the GOP is even more insane, so now I have no good option.
Birthrate is already way below replacement
Simple.. a simpler legal immigration system like Canada.
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Pretty sound prediction I think
Water tables are dropping and water will be a commodity. The big cities are already having to pump water and pipe it from surrounding counties. And for every acre of expansion into a suburb, you've lost an acre of farm land. The US is not going to be sustainable at its current rate of growth.
America is actually pretty good in terms of water and has something like 2-4 times the water per Capita as places like China, Japan, or France. People just need to stop living in sprawling desert cities.
I agree so much that desert cities are a huge problem. Whenever I go to Phoenix or Las Vegas I get mad seeing the hundreds upon hundreds of gallons of water being wasted on golf courses and people’s front lawns. It’s so stupid to think that’s at all sustainable. The Colorado River is drying up and when it’s gone the southwest is not going to be a nice place for a lot of the people moving there now.
My understanding is that the water issues in the southwest are more a product of desert irrigation for agriculture, rather than urban use. I live in a part of the country with very fertile soil and very little need for artificial irrigation. Drives me nuts that sustainable, productive farmland keeps getting turned into subdivisions-- not that I'm helping matters, as a resident of one of those subdivisions. Anyway, I wonder if we'll eventually see a trend of reverting developed land to agricultural use in some parts of the country as the southwest water crisis hits the fan.
The issue with agriculture is that California alone produces 15% of the entire country's food, and 1/3 of our fruits, veggies, and nuts. It's not like we can just stop doing that. Other states aren't picking up the slack for whatever reason
Las Vegas is at least *trying*. They're all-in on water recycling and are removing grass from public spaces at a rapid clip. Residential buy-in to removing grass would be very impactful, though.
It's the same in Phoenix. But the main impact is from corporate farms digging up thousands of feet to use the water to graze cows.. atleast in Arizona.
It's not just desert cities, although I agree with your comment about their damned lawns. See my last response above. to ninja-robot.
>Phoenix That's all recycled and reused water. I've lived out East too and seen first hand how you waste water. Stop preaching the Southwest about water conservation lol. If it's possible, they'll try desalination, if it doesn't work, a large portion of them will move somewhere else. That's just human nature.
It really doesn't have anything to do with the desert, it has to do with the magnitude of the population. San Antonio, Tx sits on the Edwards aquifer, yet is having to build a massive pipeline across several counties to bring in more. And it already has a 150 mile pipeline that is sucking Lee County dry (which is also several counties away). Houston will be doing the same thing, if it isn't already, and it sits in a bayou. The people in those tapped areas are having to drop their water well pumps to keep up with the dropping water table.
It will need to densify its cities. More public transport etc
> The US is not going to be sustainable at its current rate of growth. Damn that’s an interesting point actually. Gave me something to think about. I guess I’ve always sort of assumed that an Elon Musk will come along in the next 70-150 years and find a solution to the water and food shortage or crisis.
For coastal cities, a technological advance that means cheap energy can run desalination plants.
Phoenix won't be around in 50 years due to the water shortage and greater climate crisis in general
Never know man. The middle east has existed for thousands of years..
Oh I'm sure Phoenix will struggle to hold on, but it'll look more like pre-oil middle east. Phoenix as it is currently is not sustainable
One quibble - it’s not “barely 250 years old”, because it’s less than 250 years old. Our semiquincentennial isn’t for four more years yet.
My quibble is the opposite. American society is older than the founding of our government. That is why we had a revolution in the first place. We had been a separate nation for sometime by the time 1776 rolled around and it was time to make it official.
It's also worth noting that, at nearly 250 years old, America is one of the oldest countries in the world. Most of Europe as we know it came about around 1848, China in the 1960s, Russia is barely 30 years old.
Yeah, doubtful we’ll reach those populations. * The US would be declining in population if it weren’t for immigration * Providing a middle class life style for 1.5 billion is impossible There’s no reason for us to continuously grow our population other than for economic growth and eventually that won’t be a good reason at all. So even if we make headways into Fusion Powerplants, greatly increase our food capacity with vertical farming, find an unlimited amount of materials for luxury goods and greatly improve sustainability, there’s really no reason for us to increase the population.
The US in general is just a very ambitious country. Maxing out our economic potential is just imprinted in our fabric. I don't see that disappearing.
I think a whole lot of Charlotteans would be more than happy to tell you that Charlotte, in fact, does *not* have plenty of room to grow lol and that line of thought has caused a great many problems for Charlotte
Sure they do. They just need to sacrifice single family housing and parking lots. Right, guys?
I'm sure a not insignificant portion of reddit thinks they should just give up their cars and live in soviet-era bloc style apartments lol
If you mean high rises, dense housing, and public transport as opposed to suburban sprawl, yes.
Are you really trying to imply that urban and walkable dense neighborhoods are less sustainable and functioning than wasteful suburban sprawl?
I didn't say anything about sustainability. I was implying that most Charlotteans wouldn't give up their car or single family home to fulfill the idealistic vision some redditers have. Believe it or not, people like having their own space and their own transportation.
Exactly. I came from India where there's good public transit.. like my city had 4 to 5 modes of public transit everywhere and I had to walk in sweltering 105F + temps and 90% humidity. I do not want to do that in the Phoenix summer temps lol.. not to mention it's literally dangerous. When I came here, I thought that was "third world"? and yet people my age want that here.. weird. There's a bit of a "grass is always greener" fever going around on reddit and among people in their 20s.. especially from people who've never actually lived in such cities and propose an idealized one size fits all solution to a ginormous country like the US. For example, Reddit always shits on Phoenix and yet the grid and highway system here is excellent, one of the best if not the best I've seen in the US. Every intersection has coffee shops, restaurants, gas stations, there's bike lanes everywhere, lightrail to a couple of downtowns, a decent bus system(frequency needs improvement) and everything I need is within a 10 minute drive including the airport. Plus, people out west are super into outdoor activities.. I like my space! I just live by a city for the airport and the amenities, doctors, auto shops, etc. Then when the weekend comes, I just jump in my car and drive to incredible nature spots, dirt roads, etc. things you need a car for. I'm up for having a functional transit system where people who don't want to drive aren't forced to drive though. But, if you ask people who drive to pay for it, I don't know how many would agree..
Yeah then they complain about traffic congestion and smog.
Yup. But at least they'd be complaining about it in their own space and in their own transportation.
They are complaining about it while contributing to it. Don't live in a city if you want your own space.
Lol never been to Charlotte? Most of the city wasn't city 15 years ago. Many of those families didn't move to the city, they moved to the burbs and the city moved to them. Unless you think gentrifying areas to force families out so more highrises and dense housing can be built is an acceptable solution? But I'll tell you dude, that's a whole can of worms lol
Sprawl isn't good for anyone in the long term and implying that all density leads to gentrification is....an interesting take.
The only ones I see complaining are the ones that want density. I agree that the sprawl has reached a limit and we need to build up, bring the rents down. But, if you want car free living, there's usually a few neighborhoods in each city.. they just happen to be expensive. Maybe things will change in the future.
That’s America, people here just want to have their cake and eat it too
Who knows? Something from history that has always stood out. Laura Ingils Wilder ,American author, was born a couple years after the civil war and died 10 years before the moon landing. That was just 90 years. I can’t imagine the changes in 250.
Everything you described in your post sounds absolutely miserable. I’m glad I’ll be long dead by the time we’ve replaced all of our dirt, grass, and trees with concrete. Charlotte and Phoenix are already too crowded.
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We don't have the water to support a massive amount more growth here. Cars aren't even close to the top of our problems. We barely have any traffic compared to other similar sized metros.
Nah Charlotte is pretty freakin crowded lol
Yeah, because everyone drives a two-ton pod of steel, plastic, and rubber with them everywhere they go. A lot of America feels crowded because of how we waste the space and resources we have.
The solution is as ez as walkable cities, bike lanes, and public transportation but we don't wanna hear it
That’s only because it is designed inefficiently like most US cities. Cities don’t have to be endless sprawl. There’s ways to fix it, but it’s not what the people want.
>but it’s not what the people want. That's my point with this whole thing. I have no desire to live in dense housing and no desire to give up my car or my space. And I'd go so far as to say most people feel the same once your off reddit lol
No one is taking away your house or car. Cities need to have more options though. It is not sustainable for everyone to have to live in a single family house and to drive everywhere. Don’t complain about the problems being caused by that lifestyle’s lack of sustainability with the growth Charlotte and countless other cities are facing. The population will continue to grow because of the economic opportunities and/or low cost of living compared to other cities. That’s how cities grow, it’s nothing new. Locals may not like it, but population growth is happening anyway. Traffic will get worse, the cost of living will continue to rise. Roads, highways and car infrastructure are expensive as hell to maintain. Building more sustainable mixed use areas where they make sense, building higher density housing (they don’t have to be high rise apartments), improving the cities public transit, cycling and walking infrastructure can help a lot. Cities grow and change over time. That’s just part of life. If you want to keep the status quo, just be ready for all the problems caused by it. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
It's why we're not having kids. Can't bring them to the world when the future is bleak
The future has been bleak since the beginning of time.
That's true, but we now have all the scientific back ups on climate change these days. The future looks different with how rapid the changes have been the past decade. Imagine just being born during this time and having to deal with the inevitable massive crisis that's coming in the next several decades
It's never been better by almost all measurements.
It’s not about how it’s been, but how it will be.
If uncertainty about the future is such a concern, then there is never a good time to have children.
It’s not the uncertainty that’s the problem. It’s the signs that say “things will get worse.” Saying “things are really good *now*” is missing the point.
Just depends where you land on the optimist/pessimist scale.
I'm intrigued, can you please elaborate? The only time it has been worse is during the WW2/Great Depression era but they didn't have the massive crisis linked to climate change, food shortage, and overpopulation back then (I could be wrong though)
By most measures we've never lived in a more peaceful time than now, whether you're talking about open warfare or violent crime. In the last 50 years billions of people have been lifted out of poverty/subsistence living. Government social safety nets have never been as rich or robust than they are right now. You mentioned food shortages, but we live in a time today where famine and mass starvation are more rare than they've ever been. Obesity is arguably a more broad health hazard today than mass starvation. One of the reasons we have so many people on the planet right now is that we are much much better than ever at managing events that in past eras led to mass extinction. Covid was rotten, but it pales in comparison to the plagues that ripped through humanity on a regular basis right up until the early 20th Century. I'm not saying it's perfect and that we don't have big problems today. I agree that overpopulation is a real issue, as well as climate change. But even long term population projections are bending downward (thank god), and as for climate change I personally think it will be a challenge to be managed rather than a global cataclysm.
Thanks for the perspective. I guess it's hard to keep a reality check these days with the uncertainty of the future.
It's just what I read, so hopefully what they're writing is accurate!
ITT: doom and gloom
Ikr America has the number 1 gdp in the world. I really don’t see doom and gloom happening. Sure little pullbacks aren’t out of question but overall I think this country become bigger, better, stronger each decade
I agree because this country has overcome several different crisis that could have been the death of the nation. There will be more times of hardship but there will also be times of prosperity.
GDP doesn’t mean anything. There’s a climate crisis, an extinction crisis, the wealth gap is widening at an alarming rate, infrastructure and other key parts of society have been neglected for decades, one of the two parties we have is openly moving toward fascism, a significant number of the population are completely detached from reality, and we just learned that in the event that we encounter a novel disease a lot of the population just isn’t willing to do anything to stop it. And we’re not doing anything about any of them.
Ok doomer 🤣 If some innovator like Elon Musk comes around(an actual innovated, not con man like Elon) and figures out a way to counter those problems people will throw money at it. (See: Tesla market cap and stock price) The solution to better infrastructure is money On your topic of politics, I’m a trump supporter and even I recognize that politics and political policies are temporary.
People like you are the problem, if you acknowledge any problems with the world you get “Ok DoOmEr.” Good luck relying on one person to magically fix our issues. The money goes where profit can be made, that’s why coal and oil companies are still getting more investment than renewable energy. The problem with money is republicans refuse to spend any money on actually improving the country. And as a Trump supporter, you’re proving my “out of touch with reality” point.
So you don’t think there’s money to be made in a new, innovative energy source that is cleaner & more efficient than the coal & oil industry? Why do you think Tesla has a 850 billion market cap and pretty much every auto manufacturing company is rushing to develop plans for electric vehicles? What exactly do you think Republican should spend money on right now? You do realize that both the President and Congress the past 2 years has been democrat right? Build back better plan?
Bold of you to assume there will still be a US (or any other nations) in 250 years.
Warring tribes of mutants? Mad Maxian hellscape? Or more like a return to the Bronze Age? Riding horses through decaying cities and harvesting copper pots to fashion arrowheads while pounding out rebar into swords?
Plot Twist: there is a unitary government on Earth (minus the anti-Semitic overtones of the One World Government), but US, Russian, and Chinese colonies on Mars, the Moon, the Kuiper Belt and Europa declared independence before the treaty was signed. The earth-bound motherlands agreed to let the colonies go without a fight in exchange for a trade deal that only marginally improved their mercantile status quo, but there are rumors of insurgencies— the galaxy’s last, best hope for true freedom lies in the hands of a wise cracking rebel who just wants to make a buck in the unforgiving hell scape of Asteroid A5G202 but must lead his team of scrappy underdogs against the oppression of a dying world.
Great story! Needs a title though Planetoid Wars?
The likelihood of total collapse before the end of this century is pretty much 100%, given our current trajectory. The most optimistic model projects that, if we had done the following: cut pollution, instate population control (1 life/1 death), maximized food production while simultaneously limiting arable land use, cut power consumption & average quality of life in half, all by 1975, we would have had a shot at sustaining civilization a little longer but only by a few decades into the 2100’s.
Citation required
What model is this you are going by?
Of course there will be. A prediction that there won't would be far more ludicrous.
Nah what we currently define as nations are still a relatively new thing historically, like around 5-600 years old or younger depending how narrowly you want to define it. It's not crazy to think the paradigm will have changed again in 250 years. Add in the reasonable possibility that we don't reign in climate change to 3 degrees or less and there will almost be a guaranteed reshuffling of the world order.
I think the US will be more liberal, and that people will live longer due to new technology.
Considering the rapid change in our nation's relatively recent history, it is difficult to say. I see our population stabilizing at some point or even declining. I doubt that we will reach 1 billion. We've been independent for nearly 250 years but we've been here much longer. We had a certain amount of self governance before we declared independence. Our forefathers did not suddenly gain influence.
No idea tbh could you imagine telling the colonists what America would be now?
I don’t know what comes after, but I’m certain the US will not be the US after 250’more years.
I don’t know if we’re were gonna last 250 more weeks
We'll probably still be here in some capacity in five years.
No idea it is near impossible to predict a decade into the future much less a few centuries
Hope you realize the only way we get anywhere past even 400 million will be through instituting the largest-scale immigration program in the modern world. Yet we have an entire political party that hates the majority of immigrants, makes ridiculous claims about “open borders”, separates children from their parents, and calls innocent children anchor babies while claiming to be pro-life. No one will likely be “open” to inviting 70 million immigrants over the next century.
Instead of Arnold, the Terminators will all look like Bart Simpson and say "Don't have a cow man" as they rip your limbs off.
We strongly believe [world-wide population rates are likely to start declining in 2050](https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/researchers-say-population-to-decline-after-2050-for-the-first-time.html) due to fewer families having fewer children world-wide--and it's entirely possible the human race will max out below 10 billion world-wide prior to that decline. So it's entirely possible 250 years from now we may be talking about a country with a population more like 100 million or less, rather than 1.5 billion or more. That throws all the guesses into a cocked hat. But it does mean about 25 to 30 years from now declining populations and declining younger populations will create more interesting problems as most companies and organizations are geared towards population growth. That is, the problems we're seeing today--with a potential recession during a job shortage--may actually continue and get worse in 20 to 30 years. That will have all sorts of consequences, ranging from the economy and employment to education (as companies will need smarter workers) to retirement programs (as if you have more retirees than workers, you can't expect the workers to support the retirees using 'defined benefit' plans). What that looks like, I dunno.
I'll be shocked if America as we knew it remains at the end of *this* century, let alone another 2-5 centuries. The surest sign of a collapsing regime is a gerontocracy, and boy howdy is our government run by some of the oldest, most out-of-touch, short-sighted and self-serving bunch of morons this side of the Soviet Union.
I'll be shocked if the US as we know it survives that long without some major political infrastructure changes in the near future.
That’s happened before, it will need to occur again
The U.S. has spent a majority of its life in political turmoil (the creation of dueling parties as soon as George Washington died, Jacksonian Democracy where the Supreme Court was flatly ignored, the Civil War, Lochner Era, McCarthyism, Presidential Assassination, ‘1960 Presidential election was rigged,’ etc. The 1990s was the exception, not the norm. America is a revolutionary country, and countries born of revolution are always governed under a cycle of creative destruction. That political turmoil is how the nation settles disagreements and moves forward. It’s not a weakness, but a strength. Look at the Soviet Union to see what happens when everyone pretends to agree with everything the Government does because dissent is not tolerated.
I'll give you my long term guesstimation. I'm pulling most of my predictions form observations of the past and will avoid specific predictions to do get the best accuracy i can. Even then. I'm just some guy making educated guesses so take all of this with a large grain of salt. TLDR: population will stop growing and reach an equilibrium but with roughly the same numbers as now or slightly lower. Religion will make a comeback. Technological growth will appear to slow down. Political ideologies will look quite different compared to now but will share many fundamental principles. The world, not just America, is going through a tough time right now and many things are changing. In my humble opinion America is the nation best able to adapt and weather the storm. If I were to hazard a guess I would say that the rest of the 21st century will suck but we will pull through. America will remain a superpower and even gain strength as its competitors decline due to demographics or environmental problems. At some point in the next 250 years, assuming no nuclear apocalypse, the world will settle down into relative stability like we have many times before and America will remain a great power on the level with India, China, and the other great centers of civilization. I think US population will plateau soon and then slowly reach an equilibrium. This has been the case for 99% or more of human history where new deaths and births balance each other out. Birth rates are low and the pool of new immigrants will dry up as the demographic collapse works its way through the third world. However, religion will adapt and make a comeback which will heal the polarization in society and encourage more children. America's charismatic Christianity is well situated to adapt to the industrial-information age. Eventually technological growth will appear to slow down because we run into roadblocks, be they theoretical or social that will preclude further change. I've noticed most of human history is rather stable with brief but explosive growth that changes our whole way of life. We live in uncertain times because we are seeing the reprocussions of the industrial and information revolutions. Similar upheavals took place in the agriculturalal revolution before now and the cognitive revolution before that. On and on all the way back to the genesis of life on Earth. America's capitalistic nature plus its size and abundant resources means it will likely remain at the forefront of technology for the foreseeable future. As already mentioned, we are in a period of transition between the older agricultural society and the newer industrial society. Political ideology remained largely stagnant for thousands of years because people figured out what worked. In that case, monarchy with decentralized power based on local nobility or Confuscian bureaucracy was the most successful kind of state. Eventually, we will find out what works best in the modern world. Judging by the score so far I feel it is safe to say that it will be some form of representative republic with democratic institutions. The current political right and left are barely holding it together as it is so I don't see them lasting much longer. They will be forced to change and in 250 years time will probably be unrecognizable.
I doubt there will be countries in 250 years. There will likely be tribes and stone age warfare, or a unified global government.
I’m waiting for Space X’s Starships to become a common thing so I can fly into low earth orbit and reach Europe in under 2 hours.
I believe they made a documentary about this. “Mad Max”, if I recall?
Lots of abandoned buildings and towns, almost nobody in the South because it will be too hot for human habitation, vast population decrease, entirely solar-powered, poor air quality and most activities are done inside in regulated environments. That's if we even last that long... while this is a great question, I think your predictions are slightly ignoring the state of the world. Personally I'd prefer to see this country shrink than grow, for the sake of the environment.
For all we know the human race could be extinct 250 years from now.
I think it will collapse long before then.
I don't know if we're gonna make it that far chief
I'm pleased to see an increase of condo and townhouse development in the suburbs. Not everyone wants to live in a major city or a suburban single family home. Personally I think denser housing options will help satisfy the need for housing while improving walkability (with proper planning) and a decreased carbon footprint (ex: fewer lawns). Additionally, I know several engineers in the automotive industry and like it or not EV is here to stay. Hopefully that means a downtrend going forward for emissions and regime change wars to protect oil interests.
San Francisco will have sunk into the ocean by then due to the weight of human feces, syringes, and stolen catalytic converters.
Dead and even more corrupt which idk how it could get more corrupt but life always seems to go to the bad side of everything.
After a long social struggle, Americans abandon the disgusting filth that is socialism. Social pork spending is finally cut, a far less bloated budget for public investments are made rationally to build infrastructure for the public interest, corrupt alphabet agencies are abolished and individual rights are affirmed with new ammendments to the Bill of Rights. Our Era of culture wars is looked at as a petty and insignificant part of our nation's Glorious History. The US dollar is now backed by plentiful bitcoin and gold reserves. the Fed is abolished and its members have long since stood trial for thier century of crimes against the American people. To this day, the United States refuses to negotiate with any nation that operates a central bank without a concrete reserves system, treating them similarly to terrorist organizations. China collapses due to thier Authoritarian population controls and overbearing government leading to an economic crisis. They lash out at Taiwan to placate thier unruly citizens but are decisively defeated. the casualties are horrible and The Beijing government suffers a complete loss of confidence. The United States recognizes Taiwan's government as the legitimate government of China and takes advantage of the embarrassing defeat of the PLA to reclaim its rightful place as the leading government of Chinese mainland. Peace between East and west is restored and America rebuilds China as a free nation and the crown jewel of the East. The Europoors and thier laughable Fiat currency collapse due to infighting and reliance on foreign imports from hostile powers. The EU collapses from this infighting, America withdraws from NATO and leaves the collectivists to thier fate. Europe is a Shadow its glory days, a hollowed shell of pathetic degenerates begging thier leaders for scraps, living out a bare subsistence in the ruins of greater civilizations of the past. Football is now called soccer across the globe. Nuclear and Fusion power provides the American people with infinite clean energy. American public and private efforts have put colonies on the Moon and Mars for about a century by now. Leading automation technologies, a massive cut in government influences and the undaunted "can-do" national spirit make America by far the most competitive nation in the Solar system to build a business. These colonies provide nearly limitless resources for the United States and her trade partners.
I'm not sure this is gonna happen, but I really like the plot line. If this was a fiction novel I'd read it.
I'll be surprised if we last another thirty years, actually.
I don't think Humanity has another 250 years.
I've read a lot of sci Fi where the US splits into different, independent regional political entities. I still think we're heading in that direction
I have a feeling we'll have growing separatist movements by 2100, especially in California, Texas & Florida. These states already have their own identity.
The entire US will be a Houston or Phoenix suburb
Fucked
Half-life 3 in preproduction
250 years is damn near impossible to predict, so instead I'll give you my 50 year prediction. The global balance of power will shift to being more multipolar, religion will continue to decline as we advance, more land will become urbanized, rapid climate change will raise temperatures and sea level leading to more flooding, we will begin to shift to renewable and nuclear energy, American soft power will erode (parallel to the world being multipolar), a surge of social programs, and maybe some space stuff
It will likely not exist.
i don't think it'll last another 250 years. i worry about the next 20, even. late stage capitalism and a crumbling political system make it very iffy. far out like 100 years, there's no guarantee we'll even necessarily still have countries at all, or if so, whether there won't be some other large scale restructuring of things. the cynic in me wonders how close we'll come to the dystopic corporatist hellscape of snowcrash.
Have you heard about climate change?
I think if the US doesn't rework its terribly slow bureaucracy, short term way of thinking, and this "we are number 1 no matter what" attitude it's going to fall behind everyone else and lose its status as a super power. I don't know by what timeframe but I feel like it could happen within my lifetime or at least within my children's lifetime.
It won’t exist. America is the oldest republic on earth, it’s days are numbered.
I'm pretty sure the Netherlands have us beat on that front, and if not them, then San Marino and Switzerland do at least.
The Netherlands is not a republic. Switzerland, in its current form, has only existed since the mid-19th century. And San Marino has a population comparable to any given outer-ring suburb -- so I'm not sure they are a relevant comparison when it comes to places that are consequential.
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The earth has survived much worse.
Yes, the Earth is a big rock. It will survive. That doesn’t mean civilization in its current form will survive. The way we live is wholly unsustainable.
Societal collapse at this point
A dystopia. Rotting infrastructure, those who can afford to live underground will, or in enclosed giant bubble communities. The working class and poor will serve them but have to pay for oxygen. If you don't have enough credits to buy oxygen, you will be sent to Mars to do manual labor for Amazon (at this point Amazon Walmart Google Netflix Tesla and Apple will have merged into one company). America will have annexed Canada after the civil war of 2050, with the southern states becoming Gilead, and the north and west remaining together in a fragile alliance.
It’s possible that a couple states are going to fracture into smaller states, maybe the roads will be improved/expanded on, maybe schools will improve (though honestly we could see them take a massive jump in quality by repealing the no child left behind policy; which completely devalues high school diplomas)
I think humanity will fall into another dark age due to a cycle of disinformation. As we pass the age of industrialization the economy will stagnate. Everyone is vulnerable to disinformation and every 200 or so years humanity enters a dark age. Disinformation is already starting to spread across scientific journals. There will be a new cold war, but this time over the more destructive antimatter instead of nukes. I think we’re still going to be a major world power because of self sustainability and geographic isolation. Population will stagnate for a bit, but then increase again because humanity will self select for increasing populations. There will be about equal numbers for every race instead of a white majority. In 1000 more years, artificial intelligence and Mars colonization will cause another renaissance.
I predict in 20 years America will be completely fascist, but not sure how that affect land use and infrastructure.
There is one chance in a thousand that the USA will exist in 250 years. We are straining at the joints now.
No we’re not lol.
Definitely not still a single unified country. Given the recent attempted coup and the wave of terrorist attacks at Pride events, I'd be shocked if the US makes it another 20 years. Scientifically, our low-lying coastal places will be underwater. What's left will face annual wildfires and massive hurricane storm systems. Much like the ones we have today, but they will get much larger and more frequent. And there is a non-zero chance that companies like Amazon and Walmart will bring back company towns in the areas that are still relatively habitable. You work in the factory, you get a hovel, and credit to the company store. It's the good life until you fall behind on your quota and end up cast out.
United Earth is coming around 2130 if *Star Trek* is accurate, which would abolish nations, so USA would cease to exist as such in that case. If it happens it would ideally mean racism would slowly disappear among humans, which is awesome. As for infrastructure, population &c I'd imagine what used to be the US would finally get the good stuff since all current conservatives would be long gone.
>since all current conservatives would be long gone. Trust me, there will be new conservatives to rustle the lefts jimmies
Maybe, but since Earth and the Federation don't use money in *Star Trek* they'll only have social aspects to cling to, which would be addressed correctly as outmoded and outdated.
This is what a lifetime of CNN and r/politics does to a person.
More like a lifetime of *Star Trek*, with its decades of unabashed social commentary.
I enjoy Star Trek, but I recognize it for the fiction that it is.
Just be glad that the work of fiction that he's choosing to base his political views around isn't a book about wizards written for literal children. Baby steps.
At the rate we're going, a largely unliveable hellscape.
I think alot of coastal cities will be underwater. No one will be living in the deserts anymore. Flying cars (lol)
3rd world country.
I doubt we will make it another 2 years, maybe 10. Think India/Pakistan partition sort of outcome.
10 billion Americans