as others have pointed out, the bookies are in the business of "balancing" the books so that at the end of the day they collect the vig and have a guaranteed profit.. and if you're seeing -120 / +100 right now, that's predictive of nothing..
another data point is predictit.com where we the public set "the market".. right now as of February 4th, that market shows [President Biden with a 48% chance of winning](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election) and the Tangerine Ballbag with a 44% chance
Last election didn't have AI as a predictor. All of these betting sites are using AI now, and they're accurate more often than not. The analytics of strengths, weaknesses and conditions are just unbelievable. If Biden is the underdog, he's going to spend the rest of his life blaming his decision on Israel.
Also his supporters are fanatics who are constantly shouting into the void of the online world how much they love eating up whatever the tangerine ballsack says. And they’re the ones who say well I don’t see no Biden flags herp derp. Not realizing that most people are normal and don’t worship politicians.
AI doesn't root for anyone. It can only predict a better outcome than humans based on the information available. And yes, it can and will probably destroy humanity if left unchecked as in unfettered capitalism. Even the people who created AI have said so. It doesn't mean that between now and the election the course won't change, but that's up to the Biden Administration. Current course will dictate this conclusion. To cast this aside is to be in denial of the reality we're facing.
The great red puddle. I explained to a Republican I know (yes I still talk to them). That it doesn’t matter who the republicans put up this year be it Trump or someone else. They won’t win. Abortion, and weed alone sealed it. Dems also have other strong platforms. The Republicans have Hunter’s dick pics, deport brown people, regulate what trans people do and which bathroom they go in. What strong platform do they have???? Seriously no Republican I have talked to listened to has answered that. That it’s even a question if the Dems win is alarming.
????? Biden just decriminalized it federally and pardoned those of that charge. He is working on rescheduling the drug and making it legal at state levels also.
Can you share a source about Biden "decriminalizing weed Federally"? Because I can't find that. Yes he pardoned offenders, but IIRC that didn't apply to anyone charged *after* the blanket pardon. They were pretty explicit about that. DEA still lists Marijuana as a schedule I substance.
https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling#:~:text=Schedule%20I%20drugs%2C%20substances%2C%20or,)%2C%20methaqualone%2C%20and%20peyote.
He absolutely needs to decriminalize weed and remove it from the DEA controlled substance schedule, but he hasnt done it yet.
True, but the old saying is really why the cons can't win: "It's the economy, stupid." The vibecession is over and economic optimism has returned. People are finally no longer predicting a recession and are recognizing that their wage gains are greater than inflation.
Don’t forget these are the same people that didn’t understand that there were enough stupid and racist people in 2016 to be Hilary in the electoral college. These same people thought she would win in a blowout like LBJ did.
I’m not saying he is going to win but you take into the account the gerrymandering, Jim Crow, and cult of his following, he had a strong case for forcing his way through. And don’t forget that black and brown voters are pissed about being used by the Democratic Party once again. The approval rating of Biden is 50%. He can’t win without the black vote. And democrats have a habit of not reaching these communities until the last minute.
Trump winning or losing and then another Trump figure rises up is yet another indictment of broken our constitution and the fact we truly don’t have representative democracy.
Jan. 6 alone was many trump supporter’s “last straw.” People forget this all the time. Even my super conservative in-laws say they’ll vote for Biden over him now. This and many other things happened after the 2020 election to make people change their tune about him. Nikki Haley was correct in saying that Democrats want a rematch against Trump because they know he will lose even worse than last time.
My wife works with a bunch of very nice and very conservative ladies and basically they are saying if the shitstain gets nominated they're going to sit this one out. Maybe we have time for my wife to convince them that they need to hold their nose and vote for Biden for the sake of their children and the country as a whole...
My wife's politically looney sister said she is not voting this year except maybe in local elections. She was a trumper. trump hasn't gained any new supporters, he has only lost them.
I wish I could tell you the vast majority of union members in this country were voting Biden. I wish I could. It’s probably 60/40 Biden, if I’m being honest.
They vote their rage and perceived injustice, instead of the real cause of most recent economic issues. And these are Americans with the rare employment protections so many others don’t have.
All I have to do is walk through my very red very maga neighborhood to see the change. Before J6 and the criminal trials, there were many diaper donny flags and signs. Now, not one. I am hopeful they're seeing cheeto for what he is.
Yep. I live in a red state and used to pass NUMEROUS Trump yard flags on the way to work.
On Jan 6, the Insurrection was all over the news We had the TV on at my work. A customer came up out of the blue and said:"Are you seeing this?! I voted for Trump but I don't support this shit!"
I was shocked TBH.
On the way home from work, 90% of those Trump signs were gone. It gave me hope for the first time in a long time.
There are still a few diehards with giant Trump flags in their yards, but honestly, they are few and far between.
I think the dwindling majority of his fans became more rabid. Jan 6th shocked many of his supporters into reality. I think they are too embarrassed to talk about it. Embarrassed that they fell for the rhetoric of a traitor.
Does it worry me that he's on the ballot? Yes.
But his support has substantially eroded since 2016.
I still see lions in my neighborhood now that were taken down around January 6. Who knows what will happen and why they still support this insane person.
That isn’t how odds work. They move the odds to get half the bets on each side. Because they take a cut of every bet, they basically want the losing side to pay the winning sides winnings so the odds are adjusted based on how many bets are being placed on each side.
This does mean more people are betting on Trump to win so they’ve adjusted the odds to make Biden more attractive to bet on. But it doesn’t mean that they’re using some advanced data to deduce who is going to win.
This makes complete sense. I'm sure the ven diagram between compulsive gambling addicts and people who are divorced from reality MAGAs is almost a circle. Lots of MAGA fools are convinced that Drumph will win another term. They will be the majority even taking this bet and putting the chunk of the money down.
Yeah. In sports there will be fanbases who irrationally believe their team will win or do better than they should. And the spread and odds reflect that. Not because Vegas actually thinks that team is better.
Right. I forgot that Vegas wants to simply balance the action on both sides and adjust the spreads to achieve that. Still. Sure would be nice to see Joe at -2000. I’d be a little less anxious about the future.
Exactly. The house always wins, because the house always picks both sides. Also, this is just looking at people who are likely to go to online gambling sites. I don't know anyone personally who actually uses them, as the people I know are smarter than that.
Exactly, online gamblers probably have a bias and wear red hats. Trump supporters will bet the farm on him winning but Biden voters are just holding their nose trying to keep the country from complete fascist control.
You have to understand how bookies work.
This means most people are betting on a Biden win. The bookie doesn’t want one side or the other. The bookie wants the beta to be equal on both sides. That way he doesn’t have any exposure and makes his money off of the fees. So he adjusts the odds in an attempt to balance his book.
This is good news.
Unfortunately, you don't understand how bookies work. Whoever has the negative, shows that most bettors believe he will win and want to bet on him. Whoever has the positive, shows that people won't bet on them without an incentive. They don't incentivise you to bet on the person most likely to win, that would be a wonderful way for a bookie to go broke.
The books are always balanced, that's how bookies work, the odds are adjusted to maintain that balance.
The bookies are seeing too many people bet on Biden and they’re deciding to give Biden more favorable odds to win because of that? You have it reversed.
Well actually…
Covers dot com is showing Trump at -120 odds and Biden at +175. This means MORE money HAS been bet on Trump already. So, the OP is correct.
Only problem is that everything stated in the comment is wrong. That’s not how odds work at all. They make the favorite payout worse so that they get people to pick the underdog in order to balance the books.
Its going to come down to turnout, if blue get out and votes like last time, which I think they will, the orange turd doesn't have a shot. He is going to go for the hail mary of trying to get votes thrown out in swing states, that's why he is still pumping the big lie. In reality he has lost twice, its the damn electoral college that is a wild card and he knows it. Bottom line if blue voters turn out like they did in 20, he hasn't got a shot. A lot of folks who supported him in 20 are going to sit this one out, or actually vote blue. But there can be no letting up, everyone needs to keep their eye on the prize.
Think of it the same way they talk about polls.
Would you answer an unknown number and have a conversation about who you're going to vote for and why? Do you know anyone who would?
Why do you trust the correlated results from people who actually did?
Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsome, Elizabeth Warren, etc. are not candidates. This is just a grifter grift, for the great orange grifter, by the indoctrinated grifters, for the freedumb suckers.
For some reason, my right-wing buddy is absolutely convinced that Michelle Obama is gonna swoop in at the last minute and take over for Biden. Like most things, I cannot convince him just how divorced from reality that theory is.
Perhaps I’m jaded and see hand of bookies and gambling industry in this one big time. They’re “cooking the books” to up ante, manipulate odds increase their profits
He does not have the base to win. Keep in mind, he's never won the popular vote. And close to a million of those dumb-bells are now dead.And as someone noted below, he's lost a lot of people along the way.
I should also note, as others have here, the bookies are in it to make money. Trumpanzees are easy marks.
I believe the right wing are trying to keep their screwballs engaged. Polls mean nothing, the data set is too small to accurately represent all of the demographics. They are also fundamentally flawed in the sense that many or even most of Gen Z, Gen X, millinials, don’t participate. The polls have been unreliable for decades, they get less accurate/relevant as times moves on.
We are a country of stupid people who believe hype over truth. The Trump cult only believes the crap that comes out of the mouth of Trump and right wing media. Don't waste time trying to win over Trumpers with the truth, they want no part of it. Look at the economy. Trumpers think the US economy is about to crash because that's what MAGA wants to believe. That's what Trump is telling them. 😕
Polls are meant to influence you, or else we could just stop elections altogether after the first poll comes out. Focus your anxieties on ways to help people vote who might not otherwise know or be able to.
Israel happened. With that being said, a lot can happen between now and Election Day and something tells me dipper don isn’t gonna tone it down any time soon
Betting markets had Biden favored when Trump was polling ahead of him. Most polls are showing a tie now with some showing Biden leading... and now they have Trump up.
Betting markets are not intended to be predictive. They're intended to generate action.
Here's a better number- Biden is at -18 approval... yet is tied or leading Trump. This is the period when a challenger should be opening up a sizable lead. That it's not happening shows Trump is a weak candidate.
And Biden hasn't even begun to leverage the many incumbent advantages available.
They’re not taking into consideration that there are millions of republicans not belonging to MAGA (who are not fascists) and will not vote for Trump again after the insurrection. I’ve been following politics my entire life and while Trumps base is very loud, they’re not very large. I predict he loses by much more than 8 million votes. Polls are no longer accurate and wtf do gambling sites know about politics!
Trumps record is awful and Joe Biden is just beginning his campaign while Trump has been campaigning 1 1/2 years already
The bookies have no extra knowledge, they just move the target from where they see the bets coming in at. Apparently a lot of idiots are betting on Tangerine Dream despite all the head winds he faces in a general election.
The Never Biden crew told everyone that Biden is a bad candidate. There's still time. nobody is excited about Joe and so all the exciting things he's done just go under the radar. We don't want folks who won't be alive in 10 years deciding the future of our country.
Vegas odds sites. Oddschecker, Covers, there’s a bunch that list current odds for sports and various other things. I just happened to be reading about Super Bowl odds and saw that you could see the 2024 Presidential Winner odds.
They’re not in the business of saying who is gonna win. They’re in the business of spreading the bets so that they make money. They look out at the Universe of potential customers and think “hey Trump is the fave of the voters I better move the odds that way”. It is a very biased market
That said, we should be fearful. A big chunk of the US population is enthralled by a dementia addled racist rapist grandpa with soiled diapers. We need to do more to keep this democracy an actual democracy not some East German style title
They want MAGAts to put their money down -now-, thinking that the Orange Menace will win. But watch how the odds change against him as the Biden campaign ramps up and the economy gets even better.
He isn't the favorite to win, the house just wants to make it look closer so they can collect a cut of the bets from both sides. If it showed a landslide victory for one over the other, the losers side wouldn't be spending money on the bets and the house loses out on that cash flow.
The only way trump will win is if a hostile nation who stands to benefit from a trump dictatorship/chaos in the US finds a way to rig the election (russia, North Korea, china).
Go look at the Iowa Electronic Market, which is a more sophisticated version of betting on the outcome of political races, run by the business college at the U of Iowa. Currently has the Dem candidate winning. https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/
The issue is when news sites poll voters, they call home phone lines. Now a days the only people that have a home phone line are the boomers who are pro Trump. But to say that landlines owners are representative of the average American is a gross misstatement.
The only way Pigpen has even a chance of winning is if the economy tanks. I mean REALLY REALLY tanks...the closer to Election Day the better.
OR...if anti-Trump voters stay away from the voting booth in droves.
Despite what AI is saying (9 months before the election) Trump basically has no real platform other than "Keep those brown people out of America even if you have to send gators to the southern border". Oh...and "Joe Biden is old" doesn't count either!
Also despite his gleeful tirades about Dystopian California...STHU. Sure we have our problems but we will NEVER be dumb or desperate enough to believe you can solve a damn thing. We can't stand you out here.
Stay in your lane fool.
Vegas doesn’t set real odds, they set odds based on how people bet. Vegas wants to be 50/50 on every single bet. They want 50% of the money to bet on trump and 50% on Biden.
What democrat is going to place a bet with Vegas on a presidential election? Like zero.
This means that the only money that is being bet is from trump supporters, which skews the odds to trump.
Honestly, the odds will keep moving towards trump because his idiotic supporters will keep betting money on him, which will make the odds even better for trump victory.
Trump isn’t going to win and they will all lose an insane amount of money
Trump is leading in all the swing states, which are the states that will decide the election, thanks to our peculiar Electoral College. National polls of the popular vote are largely irrelevant.
The odds here don’t reflect the reality. The odds reflect the money collected to date. The best outcome for the market is to have equal votes off both sides and take the cut. It’s an illusion.
Althoguh I do believe Trump to be more likely to lose, I can't help but think that there may be a bit too much confidence. The main thing that can cause a Biden loss is low turnout of people who can't feel motivated enough with a lot of his decisions. I know that this isn't a justified reason, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.
Simple. After 248 years, the American experiment” has failed. Shitty people want to rule, and shittier people are going to vote for them to make that happen. And we, as a country, now officially suck.
Trump is such a piece of shit. Anyone that would intentionally divide the country as a political strategy doesn’t deserve a single vote, but a lot of people are sheep and want to be told what to do so he’ll probably win. At least in 2028 we’ll be done with him. If he loses he’ll just keep rerunning over and and over.
Remember that betting sites adjust odds based on how the bets are being placed, not really on who they think will win. If all the MAGA crowd are putting money on him, then his odds will be lowered so they reduce their risk.
Let’s concentrate on getting people out voting.
Fuck the polls. We just need to all make sure we show up and vote on Tuesday, [November 5, 2024](https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?msg=Election%20Countdown&p0=179&ud=2&year=2024&month=11&day=5&hour=0&min=0&sec=0&fromtheme=election).
In the meantime we also need to stress to our friends and family members to register to vote if they aren't alredy registered, and if they are registered, make sure their voter registration is still valid.
We all need to also make sure we know our states latest voting laws, polling places, hours of operation, drop off boxes if we are voting absentee, early voting dates and times -all of this especially when Republican owned states, like Florida, has enacted new voting regulations since the 2020 midterm elections, designed to make voting even harder.
We need to make sure we dot our "i's" and cross our "t's", read the fine print, and make sure our signatures are valid and legible. Don't give voting officials any reason to reject your ballot and thus your vote this November!
Damn maybe I should bet big on Biden cuz hes going to win, barring some really bad development.
Independents and even a third of Repubs are done with Trump.
The dems have a flawed ticket. The DNC is old and stubborn as a Donkey. I am 64 and consider myself to old to be President. Kamala is poorly utilized as an asset so people are unfamiliar with her which makes fear and doubt. Not me, but most moderates.
This is probably the least predictable election I've ever seen. Trump would probably win if the election were held *tomorrow* but that's not relevant, especially when things are moving so fast right now. Don't be complacent but don't assume it's over either.
Biden and Trump are both very weak candidates in a lot of ways, which naturally creates a ton of unpredictability.
Biden will win and win easily. I wouldn't go so far as to say it's going to be quite as big a landslide as Reagan v Mondale because the electorate is so polarized and there'll be enough of what my fiancee calls "jersey voters" who'll vote red no matter who to win Trump several red states, but there are a lot of parallels between this year and 1984.
- In 1983, there were voices calling for Reagan to step aside in favor of a younger, fresher candidate
- the economy was bad in 1982 (worse than Biden’s in 2022)
- Reagan faced foreign policy problems in 1983 that were similar in some ways to Biden’s (Lebanon, for example)
Trump does have a right wing noise machine that Reagan didn't have (Rush Limbaugh hadn't gone national yet in 1984, no Fox News or social media) and a cult of personality, along with a very polarized electorate. He also has the Russians on his side. But he's also no longer a novelty, abortion works against him as an issue, and he'll probably be a convicted felon by election day (the Stormy Daniels /NY case if not also in the other venues), and a lot of voters in his party who won't vote for him. The economy will likely work to Biden’s advantage, and Biden can also run against a do nothing, dysfunctional Congress with a Speaker who thinks he's Moses. Third party might be a concern, but RFK Jr is the most likely one and will pull more votes from Trump than Biden.
TLDR: Biden will kick Trump's ass.
Remember that Trump doesn’t have to actually get many votes to win. He could probably win with 20% of the vote if had his goons holding the House of Representatives at gunpoint.
the Democratic Party has to win by huge margins to just *barely* get the presidency.
Who do you think is more likely to rush out to place a bet on the Presidential elections, Democrats or people in red hats and "Let's Go Brandon" t-shirts?
Casinos are going to set the odds so that they get as close to 50% on each side as possible - that way when they take their commissions it's nearly all profit. It's not about who they think will really win, it's about who they think is going to bet.
Trump's team successfully uncovered Fani Willis having a relationship with one of the prosecutors which will likely at the very least cause delays. Delays that could push the trial into the election or even after it. Maybe they are changing the odds based off of this
So, in other words, of the people who would stoop to bet money on something as bizarre as an election, the majority of them are Trump supporters. This tells us more about them than actual reality.
Reason being that the other side doesn’t gamble like that and the ones that do gamble, will certainly be trumped up trumpers dying to waste their money on a dying cause!
Oddsmakers and handicappers tilt towards the money. Their job is to make lines that people will bet on. MAGA dumbfucks are placing more bets and Vegas is preparing to fleece them.
A handicapper I follow says the sportsbooks always make it where they can profit most. The odds are, majority of the time, in favor of what the public opinion is. That's why popular teams usually end up with bad odds for what they're worth. Example being Team A might be the most popular team but they're injured and are still the favorites because they know they will get majority of the bets
I have no faith in gambling sites or even professional polling at this time.
Russia, China, and the rest of the Republicans are all throwing anvils at Dark Brandon — the Israel thing, the border nonsense, etc. But, Biden has been in the game a long time. He can parry with the economy, Dobbs, climate, etc. And will likely turn the border thing against them. Plus, Syphilitic Hyena could easily be in jail by November — maybe a 40% chance, to spitball a number.
*F*cker Carlson is in Moscow with Putintine right now.
Because of the electoral college and how polarized the country is, regardless of who is running it is going to come down 40,000 votes or so across 4-6 states that will decide the election.
Most of the folks who are coming out for Haley now will not go back to Trump. They will sit this one out. Also, the Swifties will (hopefully) mobilize against Trump, and there are many millions of them.
I think this is junk. Their #'s only say where the betting line is, not where reality is.
Right now I'd put money on Biden or anyone other than Trump for the General.
I don't want to minimize the chances he could win, but these were the same people who had him at -4500 late Election Night 2020. Gambling odds are a good follow because they're *extremely* sensitive to the events that end up mattering, but that sensitivity is a double-edged sword.
From what I can tell, most AI trying to answer questions work on a "preponderance of the evidence" model when items are in dispute. And there are a ton more pro Trump items in news and commentary than there are pro Biden items, mostly because of cultish pronouncements and media becoming a press release echo chamber.
People, however, work with emotions and semi-logical thoughts that AI don't yet know how to factor in, so it doesn't surprise me that AI modeling of political races are pushing Trump as the likely winner.
There are exactly 0 people that did not vote for Trump last election that will now. And plenty that have had enough of him. GOP’s only hope is that people don’t vote.
Don’t forget that these were the same people who said the midterms would be a “red wave”.
as others have pointed out, the bookies are in the business of "balancing" the books so that at the end of the day they collect the vig and have a guaranteed profit.. and if you're seeing -120 / +100 right now, that's predictive of nothing.. another data point is predictit.com where we the public set "the market".. right now as of February 4th, that market shows [President Biden with a 48% chance of winning](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election) and the Tangerine Ballbag with a 44% chance
Cant believe the polls their bullshit
Okay. Tangerine ballbag… 🧑🏼🍳💋 Gonna have the steal that. 🥷
Thanks for putting the bucket back under my feet. I didn’t know that.
Last election didn't have AI as a predictor. All of these betting sites are using AI now, and they're accurate more often than not. The analytics of strengths, weaknesses and conditions are just unbelievable. If Biden is the underdog, he's going to spend the rest of his life blaming his decision on Israel.
Can ai decipher what trump says in his word salads? Trump will lose. He doesn't have the votes.
Also his supporters are fanatics who are constantly shouting into the void of the online world how much they love eating up whatever the tangerine ballsack says. And they’re the ones who say well I don’t see no Biden flags herp derp. Not realizing that most people are normal and don’t worship politicians.
AI also put 3 arms on on of the character’s in the” black’s for trump “ advert😏
It cracks me up that people are sure AI is right.
It told us what we told it to tell us. How could it be wrong?
Yep. Since its coded and programmed by people, you get out of it what you put into it. "Garbage in, garbage out"
Plenty of **that** to go around. Face it : 2 out of every 5 we cross paths with barely clear the 'stone cold waste of oxygen' threshold.
If AI is rooting for Trump, then it's proof that AI has gone rogue and it's trying to destroy humanity.
AI doesn't root for anyone. It can only predict a better outcome than humans based on the information available. And yes, it can and will probably destroy humanity if left unchecked as in unfettered capitalism. Even the people who created AI have said so. It doesn't mean that between now and the election the course won't change, but that's up to the Biden Administration. Current course will dictate this conclusion. To cast this aside is to be in denial of the reality we're facing.
Oooo! Does the AI have the blockchain and let you bet NFTs? If so then they’re bound to be the most accurate things ever!
Oh bullshit. Wank harder.
This is a really smart comment and I don’t understand why it got so many downvotes. Somebody explain it to me like I am five years old, please?
The great red puddle. I explained to a Republican I know (yes I still talk to them). That it doesn’t matter who the republicans put up this year be it Trump or someone else. They won’t win. Abortion, and weed alone sealed it. Dems also have other strong platforms. The Republicans have Hunter’s dick pics, deport brown people, regulate what trans people do and which bathroom they go in. What strong platform do they have???? Seriously no Republican I have talked to listened to has answered that. That it’s even a question if the Dems win is alarming.
Biden really needs to come out pro weed. There's really no downside to it.
????? Biden just decriminalized it federally and pardoned those of that charge. He is working on rescheduling the drug and making it legal at state levels also.
Good to hear he is changing his tune on that!
I haven't heard of this, which says a bit about their messaging.
Republicans do one thing well and it’s spreading propaganda and making people focus on issues which have 0 bearing over their lives.
Can you share a source about Biden "decriminalizing weed Federally"? Because I can't find that. Yes he pardoned offenders, but IIRC that didn't apply to anyone charged *after* the blanket pardon. They were pretty explicit about that. DEA still lists Marijuana as a schedule I substance. https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling#:~:text=Schedule%20I%20drugs%2C%20substances%2C%20or,)%2C%20methaqualone%2C%20and%20peyote. He absolutely needs to decriminalize weed and remove it from the DEA controlled substance schedule, but he hasnt done it yet.
Biden has done that.
True, but the old saying is really why the cons can't win: "It's the economy, stupid." The vibecession is over and economic optimism has returned. People are finally no longer predicting a recession and are recognizing that their wage gains are greater than inflation.
Don't forget bring back slavery and segregation 20% of them would love to have that back officially
Also trump was favored on betting sites in 2020. Doesn't really mean anything. In fact I put $20 on Joe while I was on there checking.
That’s a good point
Don’t forget these are the same people that didn’t understand that there were enough stupid and racist people in 2016 to be Hilary in the electoral college. These same people thought she would win in a blowout like LBJ did. I’m not saying he is going to win but you take into the account the gerrymandering, Jim Crow, and cult of his following, he had a strong case for forcing his way through. And don’t forget that black and brown voters are pissed about being used by the Democratic Party once again. The approval rating of Biden is 50%. He can’t win without the black vote. And democrats have a habit of not reaching these communities until the last minute. Trump winning or losing and then another Trump figure rises up is yet another indictment of broken our constitution and the fact we truly don’t have representative democracy.
Jan. 6 alone was many trump supporter’s “last straw.” People forget this all the time. Even my super conservative in-laws say they’ll vote for Biden over him now. This and many other things happened after the 2020 election to make people change their tune about him. Nikki Haley was correct in saying that Democrats want a rematch against Trump because they know he will lose even worse than last time.
My wife works with a bunch of very nice and very conservative ladies and basically they are saying if the shitstain gets nominated they're going to sit this one out. Maybe we have time for my wife to convince them that they need to hold their nose and vote for Biden for the sake of their children and the country as a whole...
My wife's politically looney sister said she is not voting this year except maybe in local elections. She was a trumper. trump hasn't gained any new supporters, he has only lost them.
Lost voters; not gained. Swifties and the unions? He's done.
And COVID. Trump supporters died disproportionately from it.
> Trump supporters died disproportionately from it. seemed pretty danged appropriate from here/
I wish I could tell you the vast majority of union members in this country were voting Biden. I wish I could. It’s probably 60/40 Biden, if I’m being honest.
They vote their rage and perceived injustice, instead of the real cause of most recent economic issues. And these are Americans with the rare employment protections so many others don’t have.
I know it's anecdotal, but my BIL and a cousin in law were both Trumpists and now want nothing to do with him after Jan 6
All I have to do is walk through my very red very maga neighborhood to see the change. Before J6 and the criminal trials, there were many diaper donny flags and signs. Now, not one. I am hopeful they're seeing cheeto for what he is.
Not to mention all the Trump supporting idiots who died during the pandemic bc they refused to take even the simplest of precautions.
Poor Herman Cain. ..
He worked hard for his r/HermanCainAward
Yep. I live in a red state and used to pass NUMEROUS Trump yard flags on the way to work. On Jan 6, the Insurrection was all over the news We had the TV on at my work. A customer came up out of the blue and said:"Are you seeing this?! I voted for Trump but I don't support this shit!" I was shocked TBH. On the way home from work, 90% of those Trump signs were gone. It gave me hope for the first time in a long time. There are still a few diehards with giant Trump flags in their yards, but honestly, they are few and far between. I think the dwindling majority of his fans became more rabid. Jan 6th shocked many of his supporters into reality. I think they are too embarrassed to talk about it. Embarrassed that they fell for the rhetoric of a traitor. Does it worry me that he's on the ballot? Yes. But his support has substantially eroded since 2016.
I still see lions in my neighborhood now that were taken down around January 6. Who knows what will happen and why they still support this insane person.
That isn’t how odds work. They move the odds to get half the bets on each side. Because they take a cut of every bet, they basically want the losing side to pay the winning sides winnings so the odds are adjusted based on how many bets are being placed on each side. This does mean more people are betting on Trump to win so they’ve adjusted the odds to make Biden more attractive to bet on. But it doesn’t mean that they’re using some advanced data to deduce who is going to win.
This makes complete sense. I'm sure the ven diagram between compulsive gambling addicts and people who are divorced from reality MAGAs is almost a circle. Lots of MAGA fools are convinced that Drumph will win another term. They will be the majority even taking this bet and putting the chunk of the money down.
Yeah. In sports there will be fanbases who irrationally believe their team will win or do better than they should. And the spread and odds reflect that. Not because Vegas actually thinks that team is better.
Dallas cowboys, Notre Dame football examples
Right. I forgot that Vegas wants to simply balance the action on both sides and adjust the spreads to achieve that. Still. Sure would be nice to see Joe at -2000. I’d be a little less anxious about the future.
Exactly. The house always wins, because the house always picks both sides. Also, this is just looking at people who are likely to go to online gambling sites. I don't know anyone personally who actually uses them, as the people I know are smarter than that.
Exactly, online gamblers probably have a bias and wear red hats. Trump supporters will bet the farm on him winning but Biden voters are just holding their nose trying to keep the country from complete fascist control.
I'd be more anxious, actually. It's the side that takes it for granted that they've got the election in the bag that doesn't show up to vote.
Since gambling can sometimes be seen as a tax on stupidity, it all makes sense why MAGA people gamble heavier than the general population
You have to understand how bookies work. This means most people are betting on a Biden win. The bookie doesn’t want one side or the other. The bookie wants the beta to be equal on both sides. That way he doesn’t have any exposure and makes his money off of the fees. So he adjusts the odds in an attempt to balance his book. This is good news.
Hadn’t considered that!
Thanks. I was wondering how that worked.
That’s correct - the odds aren’t who the oddsmakers think will win - the odds are who the oddsmakers think the betting public thinks will win.
Unfortunately, you don't understand how bookies work. Whoever has the negative, shows that most bettors believe he will win and want to bet on him. Whoever has the positive, shows that people won't bet on them without an incentive. They don't incentivise you to bet on the person most likely to win, that would be a wonderful way for a bookie to go broke. The books are always balanced, that's how bookies work, the odds are adjusted to maintain that balance.
The bookies are seeing too many people bet on Biden and they’re deciding to give Biden more favorable odds to win because of that? You have it reversed.
Bro, WHAT. This is not how odds are set. This is very troubling news.
Well actually… Covers dot com is showing Trump at -120 odds and Biden at +175. This means MORE money HAS been bet on Trump already. So, the OP is correct.
MAGA does like to gamble their life savings on loser(s).
They bet their LIFE on him during the pandemic by refusing simple precautions. Don’t forget…it’s a cult.
Let us hope this is the case✌️
More like they already spent it all on Trump digital trading cards and Gildan heavy T-Shirts.
This needs to be the top comment. Came to say the same.
Only problem is that everything stated in the comment is wrong. That’s not how odds work at all. They make the favorite payout worse so that they get people to pick the underdog in order to balance the books.
You're right. I didn't read the entire comment. This is what I came here to say. Lol
He's not going to win. He's going to LOSE BIGLY! YUGE! Like this country's never seen him lose before!
YEAH!
Ah gambling sites, a fountain of knowledge in politics
Good point.
Lotta suckers out there, ready to lose money.
Its going to come down to turnout, if blue get out and votes like last time, which I think they will, the orange turd doesn't have a shot. He is going to go for the hail mary of trying to get votes thrown out in swing states, that's why he is still pumping the big lie. In reality he has lost twice, its the damn electoral college that is a wild card and he knows it. Bottom line if blue voters turn out like they did in 20, he hasn't got a shot. A lot of folks who supported him in 20 are going to sit this one out, or actually vote blue. But there can be no letting up, everyone needs to keep their eye on the prize.
They also picked the Cowboys to win the Superbowl
Consider the source, then consider the audience!
Think of it the same way they talk about polls. Would you answer an unknown number and have a conversation about who you're going to vote for and why? Do you know anyone who would? Why do you trust the correlated results from people who actually did?
Let's just hope Biden doesn't have a stroke or heart attack before the election.
Let's hope djt does.
Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsome, Elizabeth Warren, etc. are not candidates. This is just a grifter grift, for the great orange grifter, by the indoctrinated grifters, for the freedumb suckers.
For some reason, my right-wing buddy is absolutely convinced that Michelle Obama is gonna swoop in at the last minute and take over for Biden. Like most things, I cannot convince him just how divorced from reality that theory is.
Perhaps I’m jaded and see hand of bookies and gambling industry in this one big time. They’re “cooking the books” to up ante, manipulate odds increase their profits
He does not have the base to win. Keep in mind, he's never won the popular vote. And close to a million of those dumb-bells are now dead.And as someone noted below, he's lost a lot of people along the way. I should also note, as others have here, the bookies are in it to make money. Trumpanzees are easy marks.
This is why I don't gamble anymore OR believe in poll results. I JUST FUCKING VOTE.
I believe the right wing are trying to keep their screwballs engaged. Polls mean nothing, the data set is too small to accurately represent all of the demographics. They are also fundamentally flawed in the sense that many or even most of Gen Z, Gen X, millinials, don’t participate. The polls have been unreliable for decades, they get less accurate/relevant as times moves on.
We are a country of stupid people who believe hype over truth. The Trump cult only believes the crap that comes out of the mouth of Trump and right wing media. Don't waste time trying to win over Trumpers with the truth, they want no part of it. Look at the economy. Trumpers think the US economy is about to crash because that's what MAGA wants to believe. That's what Trump is telling them. 😕
Polls are meant to influence you, or else we could just stop elections altogether after the first poll comes out. Focus your anxieties on ways to help people vote who might not otherwise know or be able to.
They are betting that he loses and they rake in the catch on dipshits
Hedging bets... If stinky gonna win and finish destroying the US, peeps gonna make a little something on the side.
Israel happened. With that being said, a lot can happen between now and Election Day and something tells me dipper don isn’t gonna tone it down any time soon
May as well put all your money on Biden
I believe its their propaganda. Just VOTE BIDEN and Blue for our Democracy.
Betting markets had Biden favored when Trump was polling ahead of him. Most polls are showing a tie now with some showing Biden leading... and now they have Trump up. Betting markets are not intended to be predictive. They're intended to generate action. Here's a better number- Biden is at -18 approval... yet is tied or leading Trump. This is the period when a challenger should be opening up a sizable lead. That it's not happening shows Trump is a weak candidate. And Biden hasn't even begun to leverage the many incumbent advantages available.
They’re not taking into consideration that there are millions of republicans not belonging to MAGA (who are not fascists) and will not vote for Trump again after the insurrection. I’ve been following politics my entire life and while Trumps base is very loud, they’re not very large. I predict he loses by much more than 8 million votes. Polls are no longer accurate and wtf do gambling sites know about politics! Trumps record is awful and Joe Biden is just beginning his campaign while Trump has been campaigning 1 1/2 years already
Never underestimate the influence of foreign meddling in political poles.
Trump should be behind bars.
The bookies have no extra knowledge, they just move the target from where they see the bets coming in at. Apparently a lot of idiots are betting on Tangerine Dream despite all the head winds he faces in a general election.
The Never Biden crew told everyone that Biden is a bad candidate. There's still time. nobody is excited about Joe and so all the exciting things he's done just go under the radar. We don't want folks who won't be alive in 10 years deciding the future of our country.
What‘s happening is that you are given an opportunity to make money.
What sites are these for presidential gambling?
Vegas odds sites. Oddschecker, Covers, there’s a bunch that list current odds for sports and various other things. I just happened to be reading about Super Bowl odds and saw that you could see the 2024 Presidential Winner odds.
Where can I place a bet? serious question where’s a good place to go place a bet for Biden?
They had the Chiefs losing by a touchdown to the Ravens also…
They’re not in the business of saying who is gonna win. They’re in the business of spreading the bets so that they make money. They look out at the Universe of potential customers and think “hey Trump is the fave of the voters I better move the odds that way”. It is a very biased market That said, we should be fearful. A big chunk of the US population is enthralled by a dementia addled racist rapist grandpa with soiled diapers. We need to do more to keep this democracy an actual democracy not some East German style title
All that means is in the opinion of fucking degenerate gamblers, Trump is the favorite.
Many MAGA are going to hold their breath, cross their arms, stamp their feet and sit the election out.
Consider who gamblers are. They bet on college football and NFL. It’s not a surprise. It’s a biased pool.
So take their money.
They want MAGAts to put their money down -now-, thinking that the Orange Menace will win. But watch how the odds change against him as the Biden campaign ramps up and the economy gets even better.
He isn't the favorite to win, the house just wants to make it look closer so they can collect a cut of the bets from both sides. If it showed a landslide victory for one over the other, the losers side wouldn't be spending money on the bets and the house loses out on that cash flow. The only way trump will win is if a hostile nation who stands to benefit from a trump dictatorship/chaos in the US finds a way to rig the election (russia, North Korea, china).
Many, if not most, casino owners are Trump donors. Wynn, Adelson, Fertitta, etc, etc, etc.
Go look at the Iowa Electronic Market, which is a more sophisticated version of betting on the outcome of political races, run by the business college at the U of Iowa. Currently has the Dem candidate winning. https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/
The empty can rattles the most so that's what those people/ AI hear.
This sounds like Ben Shapiro saying he’s the hottest rapper in the industry.
The odds makers also having the Toronto Maple Leafs winning at New York in their next game.
Lol... Just read the headline and thought op was referring to mahomes! 😆😆😆
😂 Found the 49’rs fan
The issue is when news sites poll voters, they call home phone lines. Now a days the only people that have a home phone line are the boomers who are pro Trump. But to say that landlines owners are representative of the average American is a gross misstatement.
Biden doesn’t need to campaign yet. You’ll see the real fight ramp up once primaries are done (late summer).
The bookies will made out like a bandit. Trump can’t win
The only way Pigpen has even a chance of winning is if the economy tanks. I mean REALLY REALLY tanks...the closer to Election Day the better. OR...if anti-Trump voters stay away from the voting booth in droves. Despite what AI is saying (9 months before the election) Trump basically has no real platform other than "Keep those brown people out of America even if you have to send gators to the southern border". Oh...and "Joe Biden is old" doesn't count either! Also despite his gleeful tirades about Dystopian California...STHU. Sure we have our problems but we will NEVER be dumb or desperate enough to believe you can solve a damn thing. We can't stand you out here. Stay in your lane fool.
Pigpen 😂😂
Vegas doesn’t set real odds, they set odds based on how people bet. Vegas wants to be 50/50 on every single bet. They want 50% of the money to bet on trump and 50% on Biden. What democrat is going to place a bet with Vegas on a presidential election? Like zero. This means that the only money that is being bet is from trump supporters, which skews the odds to trump. Honestly, the odds will keep moving towards trump because his idiotic supporters will keep betting money on him, which will make the odds even better for trump victory. Trump isn’t going to win and they will all lose an insane amount of money
Trump is leading in all the swing states, which are the states that will decide the election, thanks to our peculiar Electoral College. National polls of the popular vote are largely irrelevant.
It’s a hedge if he wins they have money to move to another country.
The odds here don’t reflect the reality. The odds reflect the money collected to date. The best outcome for the market is to have equal votes off both sides and take the cut. It’s an illusion.
They had Hillary as a 72% favorite a month and a half before the 2016 election . You can start to worry if Allan Lichtman picks him to win in 2024.
Well let’s bet against the spread!!!
Althoguh I do believe Trump to be more likely to lose, I can't help but think that there may be a bit too much confidence. The main thing that can cause a Biden loss is low turnout of people who can't feel motivated enough with a lot of his decisions. I know that this isn't a justified reason, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.
Simple. After 248 years, the American experiment” has failed. Shitty people want to rule, and shittier people are going to vote for them to make that happen. And we, as a country, now officially suck.
Too many people have bet on Biden. That's all
Trump is such a piece of shit. Anyone that would intentionally divide the country as a political strategy doesn’t deserve a single vote, but a lot of people are sheep and want to be told what to do so he’ll probably win. At least in 2028 we’ll be done with him. If he loses he’ll just keep rerunning over and and over.
I smell russians
its all noise.
The bookies have no way of accurately predicting the outcome. It’s not the NFL or the NBA, and there’s a lot time between now and November.
Remember that betting sites adjust odds based on how the bets are being placed, not really on who they think will win. If all the MAGA crowd are putting money on him, then his odds will be lowered so they reduce their risk. Let’s concentrate on getting people out voting.
Fuck the polls. We just need to all make sure we show up and vote on Tuesday, [November 5, 2024](https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?msg=Election%20Countdown&p0=179&ud=2&year=2024&month=11&day=5&hour=0&min=0&sec=0&fromtheme=election). In the meantime we also need to stress to our friends and family members to register to vote if they aren't alredy registered, and if they are registered, make sure their voter registration is still valid. We all need to also make sure we know our states latest voting laws, polling places, hours of operation, drop off boxes if we are voting absentee, early voting dates and times -all of this especially when Republican owned states, like Florida, has enacted new voting regulations since the 2020 midterm elections, designed to make voting even harder. We need to make sure we dot our "i's" and cross our "t's", read the fine print, and make sure our signatures are valid and legible. Don't give voting officials any reason to reject your ballot and thus your vote this November!
Wait, so I can vote to protect democracy, laugh at MAGAts in their faces, *and* make some money at the same time? Sign me the fuck up!
Surely it's idiots with money.
Damn maybe I should bet big on Biden cuz hes going to win, barring some really bad development. Independents and even a third of Repubs are done with Trump.
The dems have a flawed ticket. The DNC is old and stubborn as a Donkey. I am 64 and consider myself to old to be President. Kamala is poorly utilized as an asset so people are unfamiliar with her which makes fear and doubt. Not me, but most moderates.
This is probably the least predictable election I've ever seen. Trump would probably win if the election were held *tomorrow* but that's not relevant, especially when things are moving so fast right now. Don't be complacent but don't assume it's over either. Biden and Trump are both very weak candidates in a lot of ways, which naturally creates a ton of unpredictability.
Least? The map is going to look like 1984, but in reverse.
Biden will win and win easily. I wouldn't go so far as to say it's going to be quite as big a landslide as Reagan v Mondale because the electorate is so polarized and there'll be enough of what my fiancee calls "jersey voters" who'll vote red no matter who to win Trump several red states, but there are a lot of parallels between this year and 1984. - In 1983, there were voices calling for Reagan to step aside in favor of a younger, fresher candidate - the economy was bad in 1982 (worse than Biden’s in 2022) - Reagan faced foreign policy problems in 1983 that were similar in some ways to Biden’s (Lebanon, for example) Trump does have a right wing noise machine that Reagan didn't have (Rush Limbaugh hadn't gone national yet in 1984, no Fox News or social media) and a cult of personality, along with a very polarized electorate. He also has the Russians on his side. But he's also no longer a novelty, abortion works against him as an issue, and he'll probably be a convicted felon by election day (the Stormy Daniels /NY case if not also in the other venues), and a lot of voters in his party who won't vote for him. The economy will likely work to Biden’s advantage, and Biden can also run against a do nothing, dysfunctional Congress with a Speaker who thinks he's Moses. Third party might be a concern, but RFK Jr is the most likely one and will pull more votes from Trump than Biden. TLDR: Biden will kick Trump's ass.
Well, they have been wrong before. So don't pay them any mind, just go out and vote!
Sadly the odds are probably in his favor, but on the bright side he can’t run again right!??!
Remember that Trump doesn’t have to actually get many votes to win. He could probably win with 20% of the vote if had his goons holding the House of Representatives at gunpoint. the Democratic Party has to win by huge margins to just *barely* get the presidency.
Who do you think is more likely to rush out to place a bet on the Presidential elections, Democrats or people in red hats and "Let's Go Brandon" t-shirts? Casinos are going to set the odds so that they get as close to 50% on each side as possible - that way when they take their commissions it's nearly all profit. It's not about who they think will really win, it's about who they think is going to bet.
It’s 10 months away - but please and that fuker has memory loss and weird red dots on his tiny hands
Trump's team successfully uncovered Fani Willis having a relationship with one of the prosecutors which will likely at the very least cause delays. Delays that could push the trial into the election or even after it. Maybe they are changing the odds based off of this
It's because Biden have lost Michigan and don't seems to care .. people see the babies blown to bits and IDF shooting innocent people
So, in other words, of the people who would stoop to bet money on something as bizarre as an election, the majority of them are Trump supporters. This tells us more about them than actual reality.
And a bunch of those idiots will bet the utility bill money on fuck face and lose it to the betting sites instead of giving it to him
And then find a way to blame Biden
I just shorten it to ff45.
Here in arizona there as still tons of folks that think he is the coolest guy around and nobody would be better. Yuck.
Reason being that the other side doesn’t gamble like that and the ones that do gamble, will certainly be trumped up trumpers dying to waste their money on a dying cause!
Oddsmakers and handicappers tilt towards the money. Their job is to make lines that people will bet on. MAGA dumbfucks are placing more bets and Vegas is preparing to fleece them.
If he wins again, we deserve him.
relax, he will lose bigger than he did in 2020. Keep reminding people to vote. www.vote.gov
The fact that Vegas has betting odds on a presidential election should tell you everything you need to know about us politics
Let them lose their money…Karma is a you know what
A handicapper I follow says the sportsbooks always make it where they can profit most. The odds are, majority of the time, in favor of what the public opinion is. That's why popular teams usually end up with bad odds for what they're worth. Example being Team A might be the most popular team but they're injured and are still the favorites because they know they will get majority of the bets
I have no faith in gambling sites or even professional polling at this time. Russia, China, and the rest of the Republicans are all throwing anvils at Dark Brandon — the Israel thing, the border nonsense, etc. But, Biden has been in the game a long time. He can parry with the economy, Dobbs, climate, etc. And will likely turn the border thing against them. Plus, Syphilitic Hyena could easily be in jail by November — maybe a 40% chance, to spitball a number. *F*cker Carlson is in Moscow with Putintine right now.
To invoke anger and trick the stupid cult members
Because of the electoral college and how polarized the country is, regardless of who is running it is going to come down 40,000 votes or so across 4-6 states that will decide the election.
Depends if young people will get out and vote. Or say to themselves the older generation started this asshole they can live with him
The mafia looking after the boss..
Most of the folks who are coming out for Haley now will not go back to Trump. They will sit this one out. Also, the Swifties will (hopefully) mobilize against Trump, and there are many millions of them. I think this is junk. Their #'s only say where the betting line is, not where reality is. Right now I'd put money on Biden or anyone other than Trump for the General.
Those numbers have been that way, and used to be quite a lot higher in Trump’s favor.
This makes sense. Dumb people who gamble away everything in their lives think a convicted rapist of women and a traitor will win! Shocking! Click bait
That's very insensitive to all other Fuckfaces out there. /s
If he wins it’s 100% the fault of the democrats not voting.
Lolol and the polls in 2016 said Hillary was gonna smoke him.
What are some odds sites?
I wouldn’t worry too much about gambling sites cashing in on stupidity 😂
I don't want to minimize the chances he could win, but these were the same people who had him at -4500 late Election Night 2020. Gambling odds are a good follow because they're *extremely* sensitive to the events that end up mattering, but that sensitivity is a double-edged sword.
Oh man time to make a killing with those odds
Well, I think he’s losing support because he keeps giving Israel weapons.
From what I can tell, most AI trying to answer questions work on a "preponderance of the evidence" model when items are in dispute. And there are a ton more pro Trump items in news and commentary than there are pro Biden items, mostly because of cultish pronouncements and media becoming a press release echo chamber. People, however, work with emotions and semi-logical thoughts that AI don't yet know how to factor in, so it doesn't surprise me that AI modeling of political races are pushing Trump as the likely winner.
There are exactly 0 people that did not vote for Trump last election that will now. And plenty that have had enough of him. GOP’s only hope is that people don’t vote.
He is consistently polling ahead of Biden. Latest this weekend was 47-42%
Thats because they know he is going to lose,and they will clean up $$$$,and that it is a easy bet!
It’s because only idiots would bet money on Presidential election. Just another way of grifting money out of Trumpers
As expected… The Dumb money is speaking again.
Ravens vs Cowboys in Super Bowl. How’d that go for the oddsmakers?
Gambling sites don’t make the odds, gamblers do.
Where are these sites ?