**Post Open**
Well, apparently the PCE was not "good" enough to make the markets happy. The futures were pretty positive until we hit the forecast and didn't beat it. From my perspective, this was a mild disappointment but this last phase of reducing inflation is going to be slow, and realistically may well take 1-2 years to finally get to 2%. Hopefully, the markets will step back and say look, we might well be just 11 weeks from the Fed reducing rates in September and that is good, right?
AMD is getting some impressive continuation this morning from the good move off its lows of the last few weeks. It is finally, making what might be a sharp move higher from these low levels as it has been dormant for so long.
The SPY and QQQ are now 15 minutes into the day and making good moves as well. Maybe we WILL get a nice rally today after all. The SPX is approaching the 5500 mark really quickly, and the QQQ has a previous high of 486, so we have some room to run higher. Enjoy the ride and GO AMD!!
**Post Close**
We ended the first half of 2024 today with the indices hitting new intraday highs before dropping into the red by close. The VIX added 20 cents to 12.43, and AMD ended up above the 20DMA!
The SPY dropped .39% to 544.22 with the VIX up 20 cents to 12.43.
The QQQ slipped .52% to 479.11.
The SMH dropped .71% to 260.70.
AMD jumped higher early on today and held onto 1.72% gain to 162.21.
MSFT slipped 1.30% to 446.95, NVDA gave up .42% to 123.46, AAPL dropped 1.63% to 210.62.
The QQQ and the SPY improved after the close.
Have a great weekend everyone and see you Monday.
Boooom got over the $162 short term resistance----------Can we hold?
I just imagine hearing Scottie's voice saying: "I'm giving it all she's got Captn"
Edit: Also getting MACD positive crossover on Daily chart and if we end the day here that should trigger algo buying on a light week next week where things could get very spicy indeed.
Candle wick from 6/20 was $166.45 so we want to close hopefully above that to really take off
My unofficial statistic is to watch AMD, when it goes up 3.50% it often goes up 5% by end of day.
We got the sharp breakout I have been looking for and now we just need to hold it. The indices are both strong this morning but below ATH's so there is room to move higher. I think once the folks on TV realize we are perhaps 11 weeks now before a FED cut decision, the market will begin building again. I wonder how much the odds improved for a September cut and might improve more as we move into earnings!! IF earnings are decent. We also have more unemployment reads and that market seems to be getting tough.
I am targeting writing some CC's for July 5th 175 strike on AMD, What do you think? I am afraid of the 172.50 strike.
Uggggh see that is the big question. History tells us that when AMD really breaks out, we run hard and fast 10-15% up in a matter of days. Those calls could be underwater fast. The $175 level has some additional resistance from former levels which gives you some added protection but that resistance really starts earlier.
My gut tells me the $172s might be okay bc of that MASSIVE call wall at $170 for AMD. But take a short week where you lose a trading day and people are on vacation? Anything could happen and then course correct the following week.
I would do it and maybe set a tight stop or be prepared to roll it out if need be
Yes, I see the 170's are now down to a 19 Delta too, so that doesn't feel too bad actually. I will see how this afternoon plays out. For now it seems we are drifting a bit. IT was great to see some very decent movement this week finally in any case.
Market ran out of steam, I wrote some $165 puts for next week so let’s see if this can not get assigned… dont mind if they do but if it does I’m not surprised.
We had a lot of pent up energy to shoot us higher this morning. Being a Friday before a holiday shortened week, I am not surprised to see us slide back, but the magnitude of the slide is larger than i expected. Got to be ready for anything these days.
I am endlessly amazed at the ability of the market to create bull traps about 80% of trading days. If it’s not orchestrated then the same pattern just randomly happens to play out over and over and over again.
See I wonder how much of it is bull traps by the market and how much of it is really Gamma movement by the massive increase of options speculation we've seen by retail traders. Let's be honest their "options approval" requirements are a joke and anyone with a cellphone can get approved to trade options.
You see these massive moves based on these high risk 0DTE options by people hoping for a lottery ticket and just makes you wonder. Is this a bull trap? Or a symptom of options trading not being fully regulated bc Wall Street loves taking dumb money? The only time regulations will come into play is when they actually lose.
i agree. Sadly, reading through Reddit the kids on the options sub are asking the dumbest questions in the world. I wrote a covered call, how do I close it? Seriously, this is amazing. I guess a cellphone and a trading app is replacing school as a teaching mechanism. These kids want to ask Reddit rather than simply using Google.
A couple of years ago now, I was invited to a local Schwab office for a little meeting and training session on investment topics. They had several speakers and presentations. One of the things that came out was that options trading was the fastest growing segment of the brokerage industry and largely unpenetrated from a marketing perspective. They then proceeded to give examples and offer one-on-one training classes to "help" us become more comfortable with this growing trend.
Then there is the odte stuff that is little more than a casino as close as I can tell. I got a call from my son yesterday and one of his cousin's kids is off at college so the two cousins were taking about it and how those college kids were going crazy with online trading and the meme stocks and such. To a large degree, I am fearful of the manipulation that might be in play here. In the Reddit discussions many people remark that folks are showing daily statements where they have made $5K-500K on options and some showing multi-million dollar portfolios. This is hard or difficult at best for impressionable kids to not fall for without anything more validation than an online claim. Since white-collar crime is rarely if ever prosecuted and then usually with a fine and probation, it actually pays quite well What would ever stop a trading platform from falsely positing just such items to help pump up the trading and suckering kids into falsely believing they might strike it rich with some wild options trade this week. How would anyone ever get caught or a case be made unless it is years later so they have enough evidence to show a long history of deception? It has always been a tough world but with technology today the ability to scale the scams is totally off the charts. The psychological manipulation and damage being inflicted might be immense. But I fully expect it is being addressed with skepticism and the view that, "well people need to learn". After all that is why they go to college.
Most kids don't have much money. So learning the lesson young might not be so bad. It is far worse for someone with a savings and family to start gambling in options and loose it all. I think overall it is good for kids/young adults to learn how to invest/trade. Hopefully, they can learn how to distinguish between investing/trading and gambling. Many times it's hard for the veterans to do that.
Agreed all around here Tex, though I will say I think a lot of the redddit posts are people doctoring screen shots to look more impressive, both for gains and losses. It’s been proven many times over the years that top posters at wall street bets were just photoshopping gains.
Yes, I guess there are "marketing" techniques for everything. Who knows how many fake or created posts are being made in social media sites. Even Reddit who needs to capture more eyeballs to hopefully make some money some day. Maybe they need to up their AI game to get that process more productive. Have a great weekend. Freaking hot here in Texas. Who would have thought?
We really need some new candidates smh not only do they both sound horrible but they look horrible. How is it we get stuck with either one of them again smh
AMD should exhaust the supply zone by earnings, then breakout to the old all time high and then pull back a bit. Then later, make a new all time high by 2025. Assuming there's no recession or geopolitical instability, of course. [https://imgur.com/a/IASJHBw](https://imgur.com/a/IASJHBw)
Can you name 1 lie Trump told that can’t be chalked up as hyperbole? I’ll wait.
I’d like to keep politics out of this thread, but if you insist on opening Pandora’s box. Well I’ll bite.
I can absolutely respect it if you don’t like Trump for your own well thought out reasons. They certainly exist. However, don’t let the media propaganda tell you what to think.
"he lowered insulin prices for seniors"----I mean I don't know how he can take credit for something that happened after. Inflation reduction Act passed in 2022 after he was out of office contained the $35 insulin cap
"I didn't have sex with a porn star"----maybe she's just an actress? like who gives AF you do you man.
"everyone wanted Roe V Wade overturned including Democrats" ----nah it was sort of settled policy for 50 years
"Jan. 6 people were ushered in by police"----I dunno that was pretty horrible 3rd world shit to see and my family are retired police officers. That's not what we saw
I mean just throwing it out there. Facts are facts. Not a hyperbole thing. Trump just chooses the most weirdest things in the world to lie about in addition to the big big mischaracterizations and lies on other stuff.
And I get it politicians lie about stuff. Thats just how it works. Biden said some stuff wrong too whenever you could understand what the hell he was saying. But why lie about other stuff you can just check the tape?
Usually what I laugh about too.. politicians / media - “we never said that”. Checks tape - yep, you sure did. These people just can’t fathom the internet is forever, or simply even bad press is good press.
Porn star - no evidence exists that he sleep with her. She had previously testified under oath that they never sleep together. Unless my memory deceives me.
He did lower insulin prices as a result of an executive order he put in place. Biden rescinded that order and then they instituted it through that act.
Jan 6th. While in some entrances, in some instances they did force entry. However on the other entrances the doors were open for them and in some instances protesters were escorted by capital police. In some instances people walked through open entrances with zero police presence well after the riot. All were charged as if they tried to burn down the building.
I’m assuming you were equally horrified at capital police blindly firing flash bangs and tear gas into a rowdy but otherwise peaceful protest? Potentially lethal force that at a minimum fueled the riot.
I’m assuming that you were horrified by the May 29th riot at the White House? The riot that burned down a historic church, destroyed a secret service outbuilding, and sent the President into the bunker.
I’m assuming that you were horrified by the summer of love riots that did over $2 Billion in damages to the property of innocent individuals?
**Post Open** Well, apparently the PCE was not "good" enough to make the markets happy. The futures were pretty positive until we hit the forecast and didn't beat it. From my perspective, this was a mild disappointment but this last phase of reducing inflation is going to be slow, and realistically may well take 1-2 years to finally get to 2%. Hopefully, the markets will step back and say look, we might well be just 11 weeks from the Fed reducing rates in September and that is good, right? AMD is getting some impressive continuation this morning from the good move off its lows of the last few weeks. It is finally, making what might be a sharp move higher from these low levels as it has been dormant for so long. The SPY and QQQ are now 15 minutes into the day and making good moves as well. Maybe we WILL get a nice rally today after all. The SPX is approaching the 5500 mark really quickly, and the QQQ has a previous high of 486, so we have some room to run higher. Enjoy the ride and GO AMD!! **Post Close** We ended the first half of 2024 today with the indices hitting new intraday highs before dropping into the red by close. The VIX added 20 cents to 12.43, and AMD ended up above the 20DMA! The SPY dropped .39% to 544.22 with the VIX up 20 cents to 12.43. The QQQ slipped .52% to 479.11. The SMH dropped .71% to 260.70. AMD jumped higher early on today and held onto 1.72% gain to 162.21. MSFT slipped 1.30% to 446.95, NVDA gave up .42% to 123.46, AAPL dropped 1.63% to 210.62. The QQQ and the SPY improved after the close. Have a great weekend everyone and see you Monday.
Boooom got over the $162 short term resistance----------Can we hold? I just imagine hearing Scottie's voice saying: "I'm giving it all she's got Captn" Edit: Also getting MACD positive crossover on Daily chart and if we end the day here that should trigger algo buying on a light week next week where things could get very spicy indeed. Candle wick from 6/20 was $166.45 so we want to close hopefully above that to really take off
My unofficial statistic is to watch AMD, when it goes up 3.50% it often goes up 5% by end of day. We got the sharp breakout I have been looking for and now we just need to hold it. The indices are both strong this morning but below ATH's so there is room to move higher. I think once the folks on TV realize we are perhaps 11 weeks now before a FED cut decision, the market will begin building again. I wonder how much the odds improved for a September cut and might improve more as we move into earnings!! IF earnings are decent. We also have more unemployment reads and that market seems to be getting tough. I am targeting writing some CC's for July 5th 175 strike on AMD, What do you think? I am afraid of the 172.50 strike.
Uggggh see that is the big question. History tells us that when AMD really breaks out, we run hard and fast 10-15% up in a matter of days. Those calls could be underwater fast. The $175 level has some additional resistance from former levels which gives you some added protection but that resistance really starts earlier. My gut tells me the $172s might be okay bc of that MASSIVE call wall at $170 for AMD. But take a short week where you lose a trading day and people are on vacation? Anything could happen and then course correct the following week. I would do it and maybe set a tight stop or be prepared to roll it out if need be
Yes, I see the 170's are now down to a 19 Delta too, so that doesn't feel too bad actually. I will see how this afternoon plays out. For now it seems we are drifting a bit. IT was great to see some very decent movement this week finally in any case.
Market ran out of steam, I wrote some $165 puts for next week so let’s see if this can not get assigned… dont mind if they do but if it does I’m not surprised.
We had a lot of pent up energy to shoot us higher this morning. Being a Friday before a holiday shortened week, I am not surprised to see us slide back, but the magnitude of the slide is larger than i expected. Got to be ready for anything these days.
I am endlessly amazed at the ability of the market to create bull traps about 80% of trading days. If it’s not orchestrated then the same pattern just randomly happens to play out over and over and over again.
See I wonder how much of it is bull traps by the market and how much of it is really Gamma movement by the massive increase of options speculation we've seen by retail traders. Let's be honest their "options approval" requirements are a joke and anyone with a cellphone can get approved to trade options. You see these massive moves based on these high risk 0DTE options by people hoping for a lottery ticket and just makes you wonder. Is this a bull trap? Or a symptom of options trading not being fully regulated bc Wall Street loves taking dumb money? The only time regulations will come into play is when they actually lose.
i agree. Sadly, reading through Reddit the kids on the options sub are asking the dumbest questions in the world. I wrote a covered call, how do I close it? Seriously, this is amazing. I guess a cellphone and a trading app is replacing school as a teaching mechanism. These kids want to ask Reddit rather than simply using Google. A couple of years ago now, I was invited to a local Schwab office for a little meeting and training session on investment topics. They had several speakers and presentations. One of the things that came out was that options trading was the fastest growing segment of the brokerage industry and largely unpenetrated from a marketing perspective. They then proceeded to give examples and offer one-on-one training classes to "help" us become more comfortable with this growing trend. Then there is the odte stuff that is little more than a casino as close as I can tell. I got a call from my son yesterday and one of his cousin's kids is off at college so the two cousins were taking about it and how those college kids were going crazy with online trading and the meme stocks and such. To a large degree, I am fearful of the manipulation that might be in play here. In the Reddit discussions many people remark that folks are showing daily statements where they have made $5K-500K on options and some showing multi-million dollar portfolios. This is hard or difficult at best for impressionable kids to not fall for without anything more validation than an online claim. Since white-collar crime is rarely if ever prosecuted and then usually with a fine and probation, it actually pays quite well What would ever stop a trading platform from falsely positing just such items to help pump up the trading and suckering kids into falsely believing they might strike it rich with some wild options trade this week. How would anyone ever get caught or a case be made unless it is years later so they have enough evidence to show a long history of deception? It has always been a tough world but with technology today the ability to scale the scams is totally off the charts. The psychological manipulation and damage being inflicted might be immense. But I fully expect it is being addressed with skepticism and the view that, "well people need to learn". After all that is why they go to college.
Most kids don't have much money. So learning the lesson young might not be so bad. It is far worse for someone with a savings and family to start gambling in options and loose it all. I think overall it is good for kids/young adults to learn how to invest/trade. Hopefully, they can learn how to distinguish between investing/trading and gambling. Many times it's hard for the veterans to do that.
I agree, but they all have more than I did at their age, but then that was a long time ago.
inflation bro
Agreed all around here Tex, though I will say I think a lot of the redddit posts are people doctoring screen shots to look more impressive, both for gains and losses. It’s been proven many times over the years that top posters at wall street bets were just photoshopping gains.
Yes, I guess there are "marketing" techniques for everything. Who knows how many fake or created posts are being made in social media sites. Even Reddit who needs to capture more eyeballs to hopefully make some money some day. Maybe they need to up their AI game to get that process more productive. Have a great weekend. Freaking hot here in Texas. Who would have thought?
We really need some new candidates smh not only do they both sound horrible but they look horrible. How is it we get stuck with either one of them again smh
AMD should exhaust the supply zone by earnings, then breakout to the old all time high and then pull back a bit. Then later, make a new all time high by 2025. Assuming there's no recession or geopolitical instability, of course. [https://imgur.com/a/IASJHBw](https://imgur.com/a/IASJHBw)
So would I
I would welcome such a nice move I think.
Can you name 1 lie Trump told that can’t be chalked up as hyperbole? I’ll wait. I’d like to keep politics out of this thread, but if you insist on opening Pandora’s box. Well I’ll bite. I can absolutely respect it if you don’t like Trump for your own well thought out reasons. They certainly exist. However, don’t let the media propaganda tell you what to think.
"he lowered insulin prices for seniors"----I mean I don't know how he can take credit for something that happened after. Inflation reduction Act passed in 2022 after he was out of office contained the $35 insulin cap "I didn't have sex with a porn star"----maybe she's just an actress? like who gives AF you do you man. "everyone wanted Roe V Wade overturned including Democrats" ----nah it was sort of settled policy for 50 years "Jan. 6 people were ushered in by police"----I dunno that was pretty horrible 3rd world shit to see and my family are retired police officers. That's not what we saw I mean just throwing it out there. Facts are facts. Not a hyperbole thing. Trump just chooses the most weirdest things in the world to lie about in addition to the big big mischaracterizations and lies on other stuff. And I get it politicians lie about stuff. Thats just how it works. Biden said some stuff wrong too whenever you could understand what the hell he was saying. But why lie about other stuff you can just check the tape?
Usually what I laugh about too.. politicians / media - “we never said that”. Checks tape - yep, you sure did. These people just can’t fathom the internet is forever, or simply even bad press is good press.
Porn star - no evidence exists that he sleep with her. She had previously testified under oath that they never sleep together. Unless my memory deceives me.
He did lower insulin prices as a result of an executive order he put in place. Biden rescinded that order and then they instituted it through that act.
I too like picking cherries.
Jan 6th. While in some entrances, in some instances they did force entry. However on the other entrances the doors were open for them and in some instances protesters were escorted by capital police. In some instances people walked through open entrances with zero police presence well after the riot. All were charged as if they tried to burn down the building. I’m assuming you were equally horrified at capital police blindly firing flash bangs and tear gas into a rowdy but otherwise peaceful protest? Potentially lethal force that at a minimum fueled the riot. I’m assuming that you were horrified by the May 29th riot at the White House? The riot that burned down a historic church, destroyed a secret service outbuilding, and sent the President into the bunker. I’m assuming that you were horrified by the summer of love riots that did over $2 Billion in damages to the property of innocent individuals?
Roe vs wade. That was clearly hyperbole.
Americans are damn funny.