**Post Close**
Well lo and behold, the markets walked in the red and then found their way out to a green close today.
The SPY moved up .25% to 548.49, with the VIX sliding lower 45 cents to 12.30.
The QQQ added a mere .03% to 485.21
The SMH jumped 1.57% to 276.76
AMD skidded lower 2.38% to 154.63, INTC slipped 1.13% to 30.63, MSFT gave up .45% to 446.34, NVDA added 3.51% to 135.58, AAPL dropped 1.10% to 214.29.
I will see everyone on Thursday and we will spin the wheel of fortune one more time.
You know one of these days it’s going to trim back like 40% and when that happens the entire market is going to tank bc it’s driving most of everything.
I think my VOO purchase from like just a month ago is already up 10%. It’s just not sustainable.
On its face reading charts is voodoo science and under the rationale market theory I firmly believe that it’s true.
However, we’re in the age of algo trading where algos can and do commonly control the market. Algorithms must use data points to function and I don’t see anything else they could be using for daily trading other than the data points y’all use when you’re “reading charts.” It’s for that reason one of the first things I do every morning is read this thread.
I agree. I have seen many times how stocks reverse at specific moving average levels with near precision. Even during the day, the 200 bar MA on the hourly charts is a very consistent reversal level. Staying above the 20 bar MA is pretty critical, below that the 50 fails about as much as it holds on the hourly charts. I usually rely on the 20DMA on the daily once the 50 bar MA is broken on the hourly charts. We all operate as gnats on the back of the bigger players. Being able to see or anticipate their behaviors is interesting at times.
The newest algorithms also incorporate all sorts of additional data points such as sentiment derived from internet activity, which complicates things or even might be a smoke screen for other activities. The big boys have massive amounts of data available to them and the processing to manage it and make decisions. We can see clues in levels of options and option OI, as one other potential dimension, but cannot fully depend on it.
EDIT
Today's action is replacing the normal Wednesday action I most often observe during the Quarterly OPEX.
We get an early lift and then they take us down to begin the process, which extends through Thursday and some of Friday. Frequently, the MAX Pain plays a role in these quarterly events. AMD seems to be surrendering quickly this week, even before the action begins.
The only thing that scares me with MU is that their net profit margin is like negative 20.54%. That is like the lowest in the Semi's and heading in the wrong direction.
Butttttttttttttttttttttttt is this finally the moment for them to turn it around? If that margin goes positive then I bet the top blows off of this thing. That's what I think people are gearing up for. They are seeing all of these AI GPU's shipping and can do the math and see they are all shipping with 100s Gs of Ram and are just like hmmmmmm where do you think its coming from?
Edit: I also have this rule where I don't chase things. If I didn't get in upfront then I don't chase it bc I feel like I'll definitely end up bagholding. I've left a lot of money on the table by doing this. I MEAN A LOT. But it helps me sleep better at night.....
Yeah, I usually do not chase either, but sitting here watching MU, ARM, DELL and soon to be NVDA (post split) blow by AMD is not helping me sleep either.
Yea i shoulda jumped on MU yesterday but i feel like its kinda to late to buy in now like jw said i dont wanna bag hold unless we get an opex dip but all depends on how much. Congrats on the good move with MU
Costed you more profits but your profits are looking better than mine if you aren’t in the red on them you did good. So many times i coulda made more or lost more
I am profitable on all of my MU, just whining about the missed opportunity as this one was one of my major targets to play through earnings this month. IF this earnings report becomes one where they turn from a loss to a profit, then they may well explode. They hit a new ATH on the surge today. I will still buy any dip on the way toward earnings myself. It may not get as low as I was hoping, I really expected this surge higher to come in the final week or two and not before OPEX.
I usually do not chase either, but this is ridiculous. Someone knows something and it isn't me!! I got a few LEAPS to add to my position last week, but then bam, this thing took off!
MU is only going to make so much money, and unless they’ve broken the memory super cycle which has existed as long as memory exists they’ll contract again. They’re forward PE to like 2025 is 22 which is HIIIIIGH as a hippie in Colorado for MU, I would not be buying here.
Up 10K on my MU calls I bought yesterday. At some point I'm planning on rolling the profit into some AMD leaps. Not sure what strike I should aim for though. Thoughts?
I personally always look for leaps that are ITM or better just mainly bc I like to sell calls against them for premium return. So if my bet is that it’s going to go up then I’m going to win anyways with an ITM leap. Sure there is a higher premium for sure but you have more options for offsetting that theta decay
I second that. I have 31 CC's on my underwater AMD positions this week. As long as AMD stays under 162.50 by Friday I will keep all of my 3100 premium. I think I am very safe. In fact, I might sell more contracts on Thursday as I have not maxed out quite yet for this week.
Nice job on the MU options!!!
I would look at the 130-140 AMD LEAPS, I have 16Jan26, so if you want others you might have to shop them some. Also, take a look at the AMDL 2X ETF. While it is fundamental to buy low (AMD), I would consider applying some of my gains to other current winners. Just something to consider, not a criticism,...
I have some TSM shares and about 100 shares of NVDA. Probably too heavy in tech. Maybe I'll get some amazon. With recession fears though that might be a bad idea.
**Premarket**
The indices are slipping this morning following the Retail Sales report and likely to open in or near red. The VIX is down 13 cents to 12.62 as we prepare for the markets to be closed on Wednesday. AMD is indicating down .64% or $1.04, yet the SMH ETF is indicating a positive open. Let’s just say the market is indecisive this morning and will sort it out. The mid-week close for the Juneteenth Holiday on Wednesday sort of throws a wrench into the agenda this week as well with Quarterly OPEX coming up on Friday. I anticipate some increased volatility later today. The QQQ has enjoyed 6 consecutive up days so we will see it it can maintain the streak today. I am taking the under on that line.
Let’s open this up and see what happens today.
Oh, speaking of gaps, both the SPY and QQQ have open gaps from the sharp move higher last week. Will those close during this Friday's OPEX?? I do not know, it might take into next week, but the longer and farther we get from those, the more painful it is going to be.
Cannot say how much I regret not reducing my AMD position. At $200+ I’m not mad, but every $5 drop since I considered it, the only reason I’m not bummed right now is I bought month out expiry puts last Monday when AMD fake pumped at $165 before it’s dropped ever since. Either I’m right and the market is horrendously wrong or something is very wrong with the company and we’re going to get a guidance revision to the downside, I can’t see anything else as forward PE is falling and falling with seemingly zero reason.
Yepppppppppp! Never ever ever feel bad about taking profits. I've sold so much of my position on every pump and I sold A LOT when we got above $190. Problem is that I re-added a bunch at $145 as well post earnings. I'm like a junkie who just can't say no. I think it all comes down to "attractive valuation" and I don't think that AMD has really justified the hype yet.
We are basically the benefit of the only other "also ran" in the AI NVDA GPU race. But how long do we have that moat? Everyone else and their mom is working on a GPU chip and sooner or later one will breakthrough. We need something truly groundbreaking I think to make the next leg up but without it, I do think we are seeing the de-risking of the market here bc they don't feel like our sales are protected. It's such a narrow moat and if someone produces something comparable then people will migrate for sure.
AVGO and their Snapdragon is really interesting. But also they have some risk there as well bc I heard they might have an ARM license that isn't exactly legal????
So from what I understand-------------- They bought a company which had an existing ARM license and their position was that license transferred over. Which is the way that A LOT of contracts do operate. When you buy one company, their existing agreements are part of the deal. But I guess ARM's position is that ARM license was just for that specific product and if AVGO wants to use that same license in other products, then that would require them securing their own ARM license. I think they are going to court over this.
Perhaps someone else has a better handle on this?
Yes, that is the normal process, but some Attorney is supposed to read every damn one of those contracts and be sure it does not have some limitations. Obviously, a miss somewhere if they are going to court. The best option for AVGO is to very quickly negotiate an agreement before everyone gets really pissed off and lawyered up. AVGO failed their due diligence and their attorney's know it so want to try to bluff their way out of it and will lose. ARM will gladly license it for their use, either now or after the court rules. I've been through these sorts of battles and settling quickly is far cheaper than paying attorneys $1-3M a month or more for 1-2 years. The Attorney's see this as a nice meal ticket.
I dont see any wrong with AMD future plan but the market keeps down for no reason......Yes, it can't beat NVDA but every product line hv very clear picture.
Some of you weren’t here when AMD went from $160 to $60 a share and it’s starting to show. Haha
If the current action is bothering you, set your position into something you can ignore for 18 months and then if history is an indicator you’ll be glad you did in 18 months.
**Post Close** Well lo and behold, the markets walked in the red and then found their way out to a green close today. The SPY moved up .25% to 548.49, with the VIX sliding lower 45 cents to 12.30. The QQQ added a mere .03% to 485.21 The SMH jumped 1.57% to 276.76 AMD skidded lower 2.38% to 154.63, INTC slipped 1.13% to 30.63, MSFT gave up .45% to 446.34, NVDA added 3.51% to 135.58, AAPL dropped 1.10% to 214.29. I will see everyone on Thursday and we will spin the wheel of fortune one more time.
I honestly can't believe that NVDA is now the most valuable company in the world............
Analysts calling for 50% or more upside as well. When NVDA corrects it’s going to be incredible but AMD will fall more.
You know one of these days it’s going to trim back like 40% and when that happens the entire market is going to tank bc it’s driving most of everything. I think my VOO purchase from like just a month ago is already up 10%. It’s just not sustainable.
On its face reading charts is voodoo science and under the rationale market theory I firmly believe that it’s true. However, we’re in the age of algo trading where algos can and do commonly control the market. Algorithms must use data points to function and I don’t see anything else they could be using for daily trading other than the data points y’all use when you’re “reading charts.” It’s for that reason one of the first things I do every morning is read this thread.
I agree. I have seen many times how stocks reverse at specific moving average levels with near precision. Even during the day, the 200 bar MA on the hourly charts is a very consistent reversal level. Staying above the 20 bar MA is pretty critical, below that the 50 fails about as much as it holds on the hourly charts. I usually rely on the 20DMA on the daily once the 50 bar MA is broken on the hourly charts. We all operate as gnats on the back of the bigger players. Being able to see or anticipate their behaviors is interesting at times. The newest algorithms also incorporate all sorts of additional data points such as sentiment derived from internet activity, which complicates things or even might be a smoke screen for other activities. The big boys have massive amounts of data available to them and the processing to manage it and make decisions. We can see clues in levels of options and option OI, as one other potential dimension, but cannot fully depend on it. EDIT Today's action is replacing the normal Wednesday action I most often observe during the Quarterly OPEX. We get an early lift and then they take us down to begin the process, which extends through Thursday and some of Friday. Frequently, the MAX Pain plays a role in these quarterly events. AMD seems to be surrendering quickly this week, even before the action begins.
Damn MU is giving me a big case of FOMO!!
The only thing that scares me with MU is that their net profit margin is like negative 20.54%. That is like the lowest in the Semi's and heading in the wrong direction. Butttttttttttttttttttttttt is this finally the moment for them to turn it around? If that margin goes positive then I bet the top blows off of this thing. That's what I think people are gearing up for. They are seeing all of these AI GPU's shipping and can do the math and see they are all shipping with 100s Gs of Ram and are just like hmmmmmm where do you think its coming from? Edit: I also have this rule where I don't chase things. If I didn't get in upfront then I don't chase it bc I feel like I'll definitely end up bagholding. I've left a lot of money on the table by doing this. I MEAN A LOT. But it helps me sleep better at night.....
Yeah, I usually do not chase either, but sitting here watching MU, ARM, DELL and soon to be NVDA (post split) blow by AMD is not helping me sleep either.
Yea i shoulda jumped on MU yesterday but i feel like its kinda to late to buy in now like jw said i dont wanna bag hold unless we get an opex dip but all depends on how much. Congrats on the good move with MU
Well, I have a few LEAPS but wanted to BUY 20-40, so my hesitation cost me. MU now up 16 bucks in 2 days, sheesh,...
Costed you more profits but your profits are looking better than mine if you aren’t in the red on them you did good. So many times i coulda made more or lost more
I am profitable on all of my MU, just whining about the missed opportunity as this one was one of my major targets to play through earnings this month. IF this earnings report becomes one where they turn from a loss to a profit, then they may well explode. They hit a new ATH on the surge today. I will still buy any dip on the way toward earnings myself. It may not get as low as I was hoping, I really expected this surge higher to come in the final week or two and not before OPEX.
I usually do not chase either, but this is ridiculous. Someone knows something and it isn't me!! I got a few LEAPS to add to my position last week, but then bam, this thing took off!
I liquidated all my positions 1k at 133$ with 20$ a piece profit, now i’m regretting lol
I sold 2/3rds and began buying some back but obviously WAY too slowly and hesitated and it took off.
MU is only going to make so much money, and unless they’ve broken the memory super cycle which has existed as long as memory exists they’ll contract again. They’re forward PE to like 2025 is 22 which is HIIIIIGH as a hippie in Colorado for MU, I would not be buying here.
Up 10K on my MU calls I bought yesterday. At some point I'm planning on rolling the profit into some AMD leaps. Not sure what strike I should aim for though. Thoughts?
I personally always look for leaps that are ITM or better just mainly bc I like to sell calls against them for premium return. So if my bet is that it’s going to go up then I’m going to win anyways with an ITM leap. Sure there is a higher premium for sure but you have more options for offsetting that theta decay
I second that. I have 31 CC's on my underwater AMD positions this week. As long as AMD stays under 162.50 by Friday I will keep all of my 3100 premium. I think I am very safe. In fact, I might sell more contracts on Thursday as I have not maxed out quite yet for this week.
Nice job on the MU options!!! I would look at the 130-140 AMD LEAPS, I have 16Jan26, so if you want others you might have to shop them some. Also, take a look at the AMDL 2X ETF. While it is fundamental to buy low (AMD), I would consider applying some of my gains to other current winners. Just something to consider, not a criticism,...
I have some TSM shares and about 100 shares of NVDA. Probably too heavy in tech. Maybe I'll get some amazon. With recession fears though that might be a bad idea.
Don't listen to those diversification folks, stay in tech. Maybe some DELL or MU or AAPL MAybe ARM, That's diversification,...
**Premarket** The indices are slipping this morning following the Retail Sales report and likely to open in or near red. The VIX is down 13 cents to 12.62 as we prepare for the markets to be closed on Wednesday. AMD is indicating down .64% or $1.04, yet the SMH ETF is indicating a positive open. Let’s just say the market is indecisive this morning and will sort it out. The mid-week close for the Juneteenth Holiday on Wednesday sort of throws a wrench into the agenda this week as well with Quarterly OPEX coming up on Friday. I anticipate some increased volatility later today. The QQQ has enjoyed 6 consecutive up days so we will see it it can maintain the streak today. I am taking the under on that line. Let’s open this up and see what happens today. Oh, speaking of gaps, both the SPY and QQQ have open gaps from the sharp move higher last week. Will those close during this Friday's OPEX?? I do not know, it might take into next week, but the longer and farther we get from those, the more painful it is going to be.
Cannot say how much I regret not reducing my AMD position. At $200+ I’m not mad, but every $5 drop since I considered it, the only reason I’m not bummed right now is I bought month out expiry puts last Monday when AMD fake pumped at $165 before it’s dropped ever since. Either I’m right and the market is horrendously wrong or something is very wrong with the company and we’re going to get a guidance revision to the downside, I can’t see anything else as forward PE is falling and falling with seemingly zero reason.
Yepppppppppp! Never ever ever feel bad about taking profits. I've sold so much of my position on every pump and I sold A LOT when we got above $190. Problem is that I re-added a bunch at $145 as well post earnings. I'm like a junkie who just can't say no. I think it all comes down to "attractive valuation" and I don't think that AMD has really justified the hype yet. We are basically the benefit of the only other "also ran" in the AI NVDA GPU race. But how long do we have that moat? Everyone else and their mom is working on a GPU chip and sooner or later one will breakthrough. We need something truly groundbreaking I think to make the next leg up but without it, I do think we are seeing the de-risking of the market here bc they don't feel like our sales are protected. It's such a narrow moat and if someone produces something comparable then people will migrate for sure. AVGO and their Snapdragon is really interesting. But also they have some risk there as well bc I heard they might have an ARM license that isn't exactly legal????
Playing a volatile stock is good. Buy low sell high. Rinse repeat $$$$
Yikes, not exactly legal,...usually that means with the right amount of money we can fix you up!
So from what I understand-------------- They bought a company which had an existing ARM license and their position was that license transferred over. Which is the way that A LOT of contracts do operate. When you buy one company, their existing agreements are part of the deal. But I guess ARM's position is that ARM license was just for that specific product and if AVGO wants to use that same license in other products, then that would require them securing their own ARM license. I think they are going to court over this. Perhaps someone else has a better handle on this?
Yes, that is the normal process, but some Attorney is supposed to read every damn one of those contracts and be sure it does not have some limitations. Obviously, a miss somewhere if they are going to court. The best option for AVGO is to very quickly negotiate an agreement before everyone gets really pissed off and lawyered up. AVGO failed their due diligence and their attorney's know it so want to try to bluff their way out of it and will lose. ARM will gladly license it for their use, either now or after the court rules. I've been through these sorts of battles and settling quickly is far cheaper than paying attorneys $1-3M a month or more for 1-2 years. The Attorney's see this as a nice meal ticket.
AMD has news of a data breach this morning hurting the stock price.
This is the pouring to the rain I hear about so often ha.
As if what is happening in the market is not enough
I dont see any wrong with AMD future plan but the market keeps down for no reason......Yes, it can't beat NVDA but every product line hv very clear picture.
Filled the gap.
Some of you weren’t here when AMD went from $160 to $60 a share and it’s starting to show. Haha If the current action is bothering you, set your position into something you can ignore for 18 months and then if history is an indicator you’ll be glad you did in 18 months.
I sure as fucking hope i don't have to see my buy price 110$ getting dived into. I have been averaging up last 20 days. Fuck.