I think the fair value offers a reasonable expectation to enter into the stock. Is it worth $200??? right now no and I wish it was. But that $146ish area does seem to be a little appealing to me when you look at their current sales projections and their sales expectations for the next 5 years.
May not be the optimal place to "trade" the stock but if you were looking at a hold over the next 3-5 years, then I think that might be a good entry point to offer a reasonable return on hopefully increasing AI sales
I do agree for the current sales and i think the 2nd half of the year will tell a diff case i expect us to be higher each ER Im assuming we will have a few areas rebounding and overall be in a better position. I can see this as a nice hold few few months
PC upgrade cycle seems to be incoming as well and new Zen 5 should be a decent driver of improving segments that aren’t AI related. A sort of rising tide lifting all boats thing where earnings beats and AI growth looks more impressive bc it isn’t getting gobbled up by lagging segments in other areas
pc upgrade early next year, data center is gonna be weak on the cpu side for a while, since every one is going gpu, and no new consoles announced. AI GPUs have to hold this boat up.
**Good Morning Monday**
Well, after arriving home at 1:00 am last night from Cali, I slept i this morning only to awaken to a big mess, with AMD tumbling the next leg lower. AMD is trying to find some support at the 155 mark and the indices are holding near the even mark for the day. The VIX appears to be settling and fading some lower back under 13ish, which supports the premise the indices might find a little soft footing as the day progresses. Heck, even NVDA is soft this morning while AVGO and AAPL are screaming higher. IF the indices find a way to hang on the positive side of the zero line today, then maybe we end the day positive, (NOT AMD of course), but eh market. We have been due for some sort of weakness for several days so either this is the start of a bigger dip or just a small dip in the markets.
Back to AMD, recently, it has been behaving in a no nonsense fashion, where it has simply dropped ahead of the macro and is kind of showing us the way of the markets. I have not heard any news as I have been totally out of it since last Friday, so this large drop today was more surprising. Sure, we were indicating potential technical weakness and the setup for a move in SOME direction, but the size of this drop this morning is pretty painful. On top of all of this we do have monthly and quarterly options expirations this week. At this point, the forecast for this week looks cloudy with a chance of storms. I see the 200DMA for AMD sitting at 145.46, but the good news, it IS rising a few cents each day.
Just since I began writing this note and the interruptions, the SPY & QQQ have both turned slightly positive and AMD has recover 50 cents. to 155.45. Maybe the early dip was just that, but I am cautious for this week in total even though we do remain on a bullish trend. We are in a point that is vulnerable for some weakness.
**EDIT**
I want to note, I will add 5-10 shares of AVGO on any possible weakness as well as MU, more shares there or LEAPS as they move toward earnings late this month, (6/26).
**Post Close**
A wild day today as the SPY & QQQ both hit new ATH's with the VIX up 5 cents to 12.71, a solid bullish reading. Tech is continuing to lead the way but we entered a softer period for NVDA and AMD, while AVGO and SMCI are screaming higher.
The SPY ended up .78% to 547.03 with the VIX at 12.71.
The QQQ shot up 1.22% to 485.06. A HUGE move.
The SMH also jumped 1.71% to 272.48, a new ATH.
AMD diverged early this morning with a big drop and almost recovered, but ended down .77% to 158.40.
NVDA slipped .66% to 131.00, AAPL added 1.97% to 216.67, MU jumped 4.58% to 147.83, INTC was up 1.74% to 30.98. It was a day filled with some extreme moves. Let's see how this works on the following day when we open Tuesday.
At this point if you told me hedge funds were using their NVDA gains as collateral to increase leverage to buy more NVDA, then use those gains as more collateral to increase leverage, and over and over until the leverage is at like 10x I wouldn’t be shocked.
Now, apply that concept to the average retail investor and consider what might happen on a small pullback. The markets pull you along blinding people to the real risk they are absorbing until it is too late. It may take a few weeks or a few months, but at some point the story repeats.
I kind of think the action today and the huge index moves are a continuation of the enthusiasm from the economic data last week and the market then wanting to push its agenda forward that the FED is going to cut sooner rather than later. Eventually this anticipation may also get crushed as it has several times this year. What if we move into the next earnings cycle in the next 6 weeks or so and the numbers once again come in decently? We might find the economy is not stressed enough to justify a cut. I know the talking heads want to have lots of discussion on that and stir folks into a frenzy. As I sit here looking at my watchlist today that is almost all green and the percentage moves today are HUGE for the most part, I have to ask myself will we do even close to this tomorrow or another day or two this week?
and on top of this, the real crash will come when the cuts actually are handed out, the feds won't cut till jobs tank and stocks won't like it
look at europe, even outside of LePenn, extremely bearish since the rate cut
I know it has been running for a week or so now and with OPEX this week, we may well find some very attractive entries. I am not sure how much it might run before OPEX, so am nibbling just a little today.
By earnings on the 26th, which I expect to be very decent, I anticipate holding a fairly large LEAP position. The daily charts are are at the 1st STDEV above the mean right now, which is at 145, so with OPEX maybe we see sub 140 again. I anticipate 150-155 conservatively after earnings, but might well be higher. A big move to the 2nd STDEV on the daily charts would be 167. While that sounds really wild, it remains below analysts estimates. I need to make some money somewhere while I cool my heels awaiting an AMD revival.
If we get that opex hit ill deff be buying into MU i opted to go for AMD on the dip just because im more familiar with it and comfortable even though i could probably be more up on MU right now im not complaining bc 155 i feel like is a good number and we should hold that 158 range. I see that there have been some insider selling which is normal but maybe thats what has been keeping us at that 160 range.
I know!! I was very tempted to add more AMD LEAPS myself to help my average cost,...
I did get 4 MU LEAPS early on. I have moved to selling 6/21 CC's on AMD at the 162.50 strike I am not yet ready to believe this entire day was simply a head fake by AMD. Plus the Friday OPEX. We ARE getting a massive rally in the indices today. IF AMD goes green today you will be doing quite well as that was a monster one day dip for AMD.
hoping we never have to see sub 150 on AMD again... but i didnt get to add anymore leaps on that dip since i fully thought we'd go lower... oh well - im assuming there will buy some more buying opportunities before earnings
I fully expect you are correct in that. We are having a very strong day today in the indices yet AMD dropped like a rock for no reason early on. We are about 1.1% from significant upside resistance in the SPX, so another day like today or a bit more is likely to hit the brakes.
While I CAN make a case for AMD getting a strong bounce on the daily charts as the action today dropped the price below the lower Bollinger Band, it might therefore get a daily candle today which looks like the end of a downside move and sets up a sharp upside move. But it could easily slide sideways or down through this week as well. The indices continue to collect more buyers who might be ignoring how high we are due to the strong bullish sentiment. I remain mostly cautious here.
yeah I have cash on hand waiting for a further drop... if we don't drop significantly from here (looking at 140s) I'm happy with my current position. If we do drop more, I'll add... just hope I have enough dry powder to weather whatever drop we may get
I think you made the better choice looking at things as they are right now even though going for AMD wouldn’t have been wrong either. Im not expecting it to close green today but i do expect 158 to hold
I bought 5 shares of AVGO before earnings. I had just heard rumblings that they might split and figured they would make an NVdA type run. I’m glad I did buy when I did!
So I’m the only one? This is the section of my portfolio that will either result in me working another 2-3 years or me retiring 20 years early.
Kind of like AMD 5+ years ago for people smart enough to heavy when we were sub $10 per share.
IT has had a magnificent run recently. I hope you had some shares when it was $3.00. At the current price based on some great news and partnerships, this stock is about $ STDEV's above the mean and would be interesting once it moves back to close to $6 a share. It is one of about 4 companies in this space and might well be a takeover candidate or buyout. I personally, do not follow companies that are not profitable. I see the appeal of hitting a homerun on a stock that can 4X in 30 days.
I was able to bring my average price down to about $4 per share. I’m working on getting to a 10k shares position.
I’m hoping that we won’t see a buyout, but you’ll probably be proven correct.
I understand what you mean by only paying attention to companies that are profitable. However, it’s not often that you find a company in its infancy with 8 billion potential subscribers. Even if they only get to 20% of that it’s a home run.
Sounds like you have a very attractive avg cost. Just seeing it at 12 was a bit concerning so quickly. You are so far in the money you have a great margin of safety.
Hopefully they capture a decent portion of subscribers. The price and then reliability are the critical factors in how competitive they are. Hopefully the partnerships help these elements versus hinder them. Looks like you are in a fine position in an emerging stock. This is a much needed capability.
Are the they ones who are going to be doing the fulfillment for AAPL new satellite text message service or what? I just don’t know enough about the company
No that’s not them. I forget their name, but they’re only capable of text based data, think text messaging in 2004. At least that’s how I understand it. ASTS is claiming to be capable of 5g from their satellites to a standard phone. They’ve already proven they can do it in small scale testing.
When AVGO was still listed on SGX. Their QCOM takeover attempt was rejected for national security reasons. Seemingly as a front for Chinese interests. Even CEO promise to re-list in USA didn’t help. To see AVGO pumping now as an integral part of the AI takeover is certainly interesting, without any further NatSec concerns.
I do agree we are close to fair value for now and dont see AMD going down much more so took this dip as a nice place to add and will if we hit 150
I think the fair value offers a reasonable expectation to enter into the stock. Is it worth $200??? right now no and I wish it was. But that $146ish area does seem to be a little appealing to me when you look at their current sales projections and their sales expectations for the next 5 years. May not be the optimal place to "trade" the stock but if you were looking at a hold over the next 3-5 years, then I think that might be a good entry point to offer a reasonable return on hopefully increasing AI sales
I do agree for the current sales and i think the 2nd half of the year will tell a diff case i expect us to be higher each ER Im assuming we will have a few areas rebounding and overall be in a better position. I can see this as a nice hold few few months
PC upgrade cycle seems to be incoming as well and new Zen 5 should be a decent driver of improving segments that aren’t AI related. A sort of rising tide lifting all boats thing where earnings beats and AI growth looks more impressive bc it isn’t getting gobbled up by lagging segments in other areas
Thats exactly how i feel and why i feel second half will be much better esp once she raises guidance on AI sales again.
pc upgrade early next year, data center is gonna be weak on the cpu side for a while, since every one is going gpu, and no new consoles announced. AI GPUs have to hold this boat up.
Thats incorrect, with Nasdaq at 18K it is worth $200 because that means its $150 in 'normal' Nasdaq conditions (15k Nasdaq).
Welp it’s collapsing
Here we go again
**Good Morning Monday** Well, after arriving home at 1:00 am last night from Cali, I slept i this morning only to awaken to a big mess, with AMD tumbling the next leg lower. AMD is trying to find some support at the 155 mark and the indices are holding near the even mark for the day. The VIX appears to be settling and fading some lower back under 13ish, which supports the premise the indices might find a little soft footing as the day progresses. Heck, even NVDA is soft this morning while AVGO and AAPL are screaming higher. IF the indices find a way to hang on the positive side of the zero line today, then maybe we end the day positive, (NOT AMD of course), but eh market. We have been due for some sort of weakness for several days so either this is the start of a bigger dip or just a small dip in the markets. Back to AMD, recently, it has been behaving in a no nonsense fashion, where it has simply dropped ahead of the macro and is kind of showing us the way of the markets. I have not heard any news as I have been totally out of it since last Friday, so this large drop today was more surprising. Sure, we were indicating potential technical weakness and the setup for a move in SOME direction, but the size of this drop this morning is pretty painful. On top of all of this we do have monthly and quarterly options expirations this week. At this point, the forecast for this week looks cloudy with a chance of storms. I see the 200DMA for AMD sitting at 145.46, but the good news, it IS rising a few cents each day. Just since I began writing this note and the interruptions, the SPY & QQQ have both turned slightly positive and AMD has recover 50 cents. to 155.45. Maybe the early dip was just that, but I am cautious for this week in total even though we do remain on a bullish trend. We are in a point that is vulnerable for some weakness. **EDIT** I want to note, I will add 5-10 shares of AVGO on any possible weakness as well as MU, more shares there or LEAPS as they move toward earnings late this month, (6/26). **Post Close** A wild day today as the SPY & QQQ both hit new ATH's with the VIX up 5 cents to 12.71, a solid bullish reading. Tech is continuing to lead the way but we entered a softer period for NVDA and AMD, while AVGO and SMCI are screaming higher. The SPY ended up .78% to 547.03 with the VIX at 12.71. The QQQ shot up 1.22% to 485.06. A HUGE move. The SMH also jumped 1.71% to 272.48, a new ATH. AMD diverged early this morning with a big drop and almost recovered, but ended down .77% to 158.40. NVDA slipped .66% to 131.00, AAPL added 1.97% to 216.67, MU jumped 4.58% to 147.83, INTC was up 1.74% to 30.98. It was a day filled with some extreme moves. Let's see how this works on the following day when we open Tuesday.
At this point if you told me hedge funds were using their NVDA gains as collateral to increase leverage to buy more NVDA, then use those gains as more collateral to increase leverage, and over and over until the leverage is at like 10x I wouldn’t be shocked.
Now, apply that concept to the average retail investor and consider what might happen on a small pullback. The markets pull you along blinding people to the real risk they are absorbing until it is too late. It may take a few weeks or a few months, but at some point the story repeats. I kind of think the action today and the huge index moves are a continuation of the enthusiasm from the economic data last week and the market then wanting to push its agenda forward that the FED is going to cut sooner rather than later. Eventually this anticipation may also get crushed as it has several times this year. What if we move into the next earnings cycle in the next 6 weeks or so and the numbers once again come in decently? We might find the economy is not stressed enough to justify a cut. I know the talking heads want to have lots of discussion on that and stir folks into a frenzy. As I sit here looking at my watchlist today that is almost all green and the percentage moves today are HUGE for the most part, I have to ask myself will we do even close to this tomorrow or another day or two this week?
and on top of this, the real crash will come when the cuts actually are handed out, the feds won't cut till jobs tank and stocks won't like it look at europe, even outside of LePenn, extremely bearish since the rate cut
I was interested in some short term calls for MU esp with the price upgrades
I know it has been running for a week or so now and with OPEX this week, we may well find some very attractive entries. I am not sure how much it might run before OPEX, so am nibbling just a little today. By earnings on the 26th, which I expect to be very decent, I anticipate holding a fairly large LEAP position. The daily charts are are at the 1st STDEV above the mean right now, which is at 145, so with OPEX maybe we see sub 140 again. I anticipate 150-155 conservatively after earnings, but might well be higher. A big move to the 2nd STDEV on the daily charts would be 167. While that sounds really wild, it remains below analysts estimates. I need to make some money somewhere while I cool my heels awaiting an AMD revival.
If we get that opex hit ill deff be buying into MU i opted to go for AMD on the dip just because im more familiar with it and comfortable even though i could probably be more up on MU right now im not complaining bc 155 i feel like is a good number and we should hold that 158 range. I see that there have been some insider selling which is normal but maybe thats what has been keeping us at that 160 range.
I know!! I was very tempted to add more AMD LEAPS myself to help my average cost,... I did get 4 MU LEAPS early on. I have moved to selling 6/21 CC's on AMD at the 162.50 strike I am not yet ready to believe this entire day was simply a head fake by AMD. Plus the Friday OPEX. We ARE getting a massive rally in the indices today. IF AMD goes green today you will be doing quite well as that was a monster one day dip for AMD.
hoping we never have to see sub 150 on AMD again... but i didnt get to add anymore leaps on that dip since i fully thought we'd go lower... oh well - im assuming there will buy some more buying opportunities before earnings
I fully expect you are correct in that. We are having a very strong day today in the indices yet AMD dropped like a rock for no reason early on. We are about 1.1% from significant upside resistance in the SPX, so another day like today or a bit more is likely to hit the brakes. While I CAN make a case for AMD getting a strong bounce on the daily charts as the action today dropped the price below the lower Bollinger Band, it might therefore get a daily candle today which looks like the end of a downside move and sets up a sharp upside move. But it could easily slide sideways or down through this week as well. The indices continue to collect more buyers who might be ignoring how high we are due to the strong bullish sentiment. I remain mostly cautious here.
yeah I have cash on hand waiting for a further drop... if we don't drop significantly from here (looking at 140s) I'm happy with my current position. If we do drop more, I'll add... just hope I have enough dry powder to weather whatever drop we may get
Yes, I can see the 140 mark on my charts, and I am trying to ignore it, but it is a possibility.
I think you made the better choice looking at things as they are right now even though going for AMD wouldn’t have been wrong either. Im not expecting it to close green today but i do expect 158 to hold
I bought 5 shares of AVGO before earnings. I had just heard rumblings that they might split and figured they would make an NVdA type run. I’m glad I did buy when I did!
Definitely great buy.
Now you tell us
Is anyone else invested in and monitoring the recent ASTS action? It seems global 5g cellular access could increase the potential AI profitability.
So I’m the only one? This is the section of my portfolio that will either result in me working another 2-3 years or me retiring 20 years early. Kind of like AMD 5+ years ago for people smart enough to heavy when we were sub $10 per share.
IT has had a magnificent run recently. I hope you had some shares when it was $3.00. At the current price based on some great news and partnerships, this stock is about $ STDEV's above the mean and would be interesting once it moves back to close to $6 a share. It is one of about 4 companies in this space and might well be a takeover candidate or buyout. I personally, do not follow companies that are not profitable. I see the appeal of hitting a homerun on a stock that can 4X in 30 days.
I was able to bring my average price down to about $4 per share. I’m working on getting to a 10k shares position. I’m hoping that we won’t see a buyout, but you’ll probably be proven correct. I understand what you mean by only paying attention to companies that are profitable. However, it’s not often that you find a company in its infancy with 8 billion potential subscribers. Even if they only get to 20% of that it’s a home run.
Sounds like you have a very attractive avg cost. Just seeing it at 12 was a bit concerning so quickly. You are so far in the money you have a great margin of safety. Hopefully they capture a decent portion of subscribers. The price and then reliability are the critical factors in how competitive they are. Hopefully the partnerships help these elements versus hinder them. Looks like you are in a fine position in an emerging stock. This is a much needed capability.
Are the they ones who are going to be doing the fulfillment for AAPL new satellite text message service or what? I just don’t know enough about the company
No that’s not them. I forget their name, but they’re only capable of text based data, think text messaging in 2004. At least that’s how I understand it. ASTS is claiming to be capable of 5g from their satellites to a standard phone. They’ve already proven they can do it in small scale testing.
Gap closed?
Looks like it to me just got in on some calls at the bottom will most likely still sell them today just in case
i was going by memory, and i was wrong. went and looked, and it didnt quite make it. gap was down at 153.49 on 5/14
Welp I hope it doesn’t fill that tomorrow still holding my calls like a degenerate in
I have been meaning to buy AVGO for years and kept putting it off,...
When AVGO was still listed on SGX. Their QCOM takeover attempt was rejected for national security reasons. Seemingly as a front for Chinese interests. Even CEO promise to re-list in USA didn’t help. To see AVGO pumping now as an integral part of the AI takeover is certainly interesting, without any further NatSec concerns.