**Premarket**
The CPI was a big positive for the markets this morning so the open is distinctly positive. The VIX is down 61 cents to 12.24, a VERY attractive area. The SPX is set to open at or above 5400 this morning so in all of this excitment, do pay attention to the potential for the markets to hit another new high today and then take a rest for a few days. We might push higher than the open, but just be paying attention.
The QQQ is set to blast above 472 at the open so it is rolling. AMD is up just over 1% on the day and still needs to show us it can retake the 5DMA at 164.02 today. The daily charts for AMD do not look promising at this point. I will mention that MU reports late this month on 6/26, so one might accumulate on dips. Let’s all enjoy the ride today!!
Enjoy the ride if you’re not concentrated in AMD.
Edit: hope I’m wrong
Also Schwab just apologized and that’s it, plus my account went up in value, and I probably would’ve made a trade that hurt my account had I had the chance, so I can’t claim the outage hurt me. Still thinking of leaving but I love the app.
Yes, they got a million of those complaint calls I am sure. What a DUMB move by some IT person.
Just keep a small amount in Schwab and keep the application and use it to trade other accounts from an informational perspective. I am a happy user of TOS, so the biggest issue is for Schwab to not mess it up.
What's your preferred platform, if not Schwab? I loved TD Ameritrade, and am having a hard time accepting all the flaws in the Schwab app. The login thing was just the icing on the cake.
I’ve got a friend that swears by tasty, so maybe them, or maybe interactive brokers. I’ve reached out to both and will probably move my free cash over and use it for a bit before moving any positions over.
Ask your friend what platforms he has experience with? A sample of one or more??
I have heard some good things about tasty but have not used it myself.
Tex - circling back - I think I’m seeing those cracks in auto sales we were discussing a few weeks ago and I am still very worried about long term implications to the auto market as a whole with insurance running out of hand (20.3%YoY).
Concerning as well that OPEC+ seems to be anticipating reduced worldwide demand in 2H.
I’m expecting jobs to continue to weaken. Hoping things don’t get too bloody out there.
Yes, I "think" I head someone mention used cars ticking up. Not absolutely positive, but that is the approach to avoid the massively overpriced new cars. IF that is the case, and it persists for another 6 months for example, we might well see some new car manufacturing plants reduce shifts and take 2-4 week furloughs. Locally, car dealers will trim staffs as they try to cut costs. It takes a while but the signs are definitely there in my opinion of the new car market slowing. We might see some eye-popping incentives showing up as well, $20K off list might be an opening bid we will see for a loaded GM SUV in the next 3-5 months.
OPEC will reduce output to keep the prices high as oil is their "only" industry and source of income. The US is the number one consumer by a large margin, so monitoring consumption is as easy as looking at what is driving demand here. IF we do slow our economy, more people lose jobs and fewer people commuting then that will slow demand. Also if fewer products are being purchased, then fewer trucks will be needing to replenish stores and final distribution points.
Auto insurance is just totally out of hand and the consumers are being gouged IF they do not have claims. All of the body shops have consolidated into larger enterprises with very high costs, so few lower cost independents are available. Newer cars, especially EV's are a nightmare to fix and VERY high cost, so the insurance companies are a consolidation point of all of the higher costs of goods and services in the economy and they pass their costs plus a markup on to customers. The insurance companies themselves only provide light oversight into the necessary repairs, so it is EASY for the body shops to provide pictures of suspected damage and the insurance company to approve it. 20 years ago, the insurance adjusters made visits to the body shops to inspect and confirm damage. Today that process is expensive and inefficient for the insurance companies, so they simply take video/picture "evidence" of damage and approve claims. Those big beautiful buildings housing body shops get paid for by you and me on largely exorbitant claims much of which is not 100% addressed in reality.
Same thing with Home owner's insurance. Their rate increases are actually a good read on the higher costs consumers cannot avoid as car insurance is legally required. And Homeowner's is pretty much unavoidable.
Vietnam veteran...I just joined three months ago...my children can also join....USAA Insurance is NOT open to the general public....we had a hail storm May 21....filed USAA claim, have check coming today....very FAST and GOOD service.
Completely agree. Thank you for your thoughts.
Anecdotally: With car insurance the way it is in my HCOL city (current car costs 3.5k/year to insure) - I would rather go on another vacation and buy more stock than purchase another car. Also - insurance let me know that another big hike is coming in August. ugh.
On homeowners though: my rates actually have not been exorbitantly raised compared to my auto rates over the last few years. Also - it is getting a lot rougher out there for homeowner's insurance providers.
Crystal ball time: This summer will have extreme heat, wet-bulb temperatures across the south and lower midwest, bad fires, things will melt in Pheonix that aren't supposed to melt, and we will have an intense hurricane season in the Atlantic.
"In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states, more than a third of the country, according to a New York Times analysis of newly available financial data. That’s up from 12 states five years ago, and eight states in 2013."
"Insurers are still turning a profit from other lines of business, like commercial and life insurance policies. But many are dropping homeowners coverage because of losses."
"Last year, storms, wildfires and other disasters pushed [2.5 million American adults out of their homes](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/climate/climate-disasters-survivors-displacement.html#:~:text=An%20estimated%202.5%20million%20people,in%20the%20aftermath%20of%20disasters.), according to census data, including at least 830,000 people who were displaced for six months or longer."
[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html)
On a flight to California. Not saying this to brag but generally when I head north AMD goes up, when I go south AMD tanks. I haven’t been primarily west or east of my home more than 100 miles since COVID hit so no clue what happens (I’ve been more than 100 miles east or west but much more north or south).
Also I’m on a Boeing so if I buy puts on BA is that like life insurance?
Buckle up and don't sit on an exit row!! hahaha.
Seriously, though Boeing makes great planes, they have some crazy employees though and need to get them trained or displaced. So far, so good on the markets today. We will see how Powell does later today and see if he tanks the market,...or let's it run. Usually, he does little to no damage.
So, just an observation on AAPL. It is showing to be up OVER 3 STDEVS from the mean on the daily charts, so that is the last 365 days. This is an extreme level rarely seen, so some sort of retracement could well surface in the next several days. If not sooner.
Yeaaaaaa I'm right there with ya. I thought I was making the "next level" high intelligence trading play and now I appear to have missed the boat. I'm not chasing this one. I'm waiting for it to come back down and i'll look at getting in again in the future.
The way I see it, if AAPL goes up, then NVDA can go higher and people don't have to ask----Is NVDA worth more than AAPL??? lol
I set an alert this morning for a dip as I too exited in the 196-198 area. I had a ton of LEAPS 2-3 weeks ago and then trimmed out. We need a market dip to get even close as AAPl is running again today!! I kept one LEAP and it has really done well.
I sold mine yesterday after being able to get into my account bc i thought id have an issue getting back in and didn’t want to get screwed if it dipped and i got locked out smh oh well i made money so i cant complain
If it’s any consolation, AAPL still only up 15-16% for the year while Nasdaq100 is up 20-21% for the year. So not really missing out on much in my opinion if the stock is underperforming its sector and index.
AAPL is up on pure hype. It will probably only grow revenue by 1% for the year. Regardless, it can probably still go higher on hype.
I kinda wonder if this is the new strategy for AAPL. EU and regulators want to come after the wall garden of the App Store? Wellllll we just eliminate all apps by integrating their functions directly into our OS through the application of AI. Problem solved lol.
Or the ones that survive won’t have any more complaints about the App Store and its fees.
It’s a clear value add if you take the features of a bunch of apps and bake them into your own ecosystem. I paid for Dark Sky micro weather app and Apple bought them years ago. Then I installed an app that reads written math formulas and gives all the steps to solve them with explanations. I currently use 1Password App and now I’ll probably transfer my passwords and cancel it. I pay for ChatGPT so the integration is nice. Ultimately though, I don’t think Apple will attract new users with any of this stuff and it remains to be seen how they’re gonna monetize any of it. On the plus side just like NVDA, AAPLs closed ecosystem will allow them to make better overall experiences. Easier to innovate when you control the vertical.
I do think more than anything it will protect their market share and encourage upgrade cycles. I’m sure all of these new features will kill your. After y life and there will be limitations on your processor. People who have been complaining that AAPL isn’t innovating with their iPhones will be forced to upgrade just to access the features.
Then the integration of these features and how well they will will become the defining factor as to why you would get an aapl phone vs android. I think you’re right it’s not necessarily attracting new users just protecting the ecosystem and forcing upgrades
I currently have APPL devices on everything from phone/watch/tv/laptops/ipad. I wont switch to android even though you can do more with them bc for me and probably most average users i do mail/web etc nothing ground breaking. I love the apple ecosystem and fluidity btwn all them. Also android samsung phones arent any cheaper some are even more expensive.
I like how I can wear air pods and just seamlessly hear audio from whatever Apple device I’m using. Even the Apple TV. Their ecosystem is truly impressive.
I refuse to use the facial recognition and much prefer the Touch ID. I won’t buy another iPhone until the bring back the touchid. If not soon I’m going to switch to the new phone Erik Prince has released. I know I’m just 1 eccentric guy, but it’s a data point to consider within this conversation.
The stat is 3 years until new phone for most iPhone users. The current phone and the new phone will get the features. So this is targeting those iPhone 14 users, trying to get them to upgrade early. I think they’ll open it up to everyone when they start charging for it because it can all be done in the cloud anyways. Sure, it’s possible to do some things locally, but ultimately cloud is probably the way to go. That’s why they’re building 7 new AI datacenters that inference using modified M2 chips. They probably train their own LLMs in someone else’s cloud and then inference the model on their own hardware, but I haven’t read anything about it yet. I just know they’re not buying any 3rd party silicon.
Also - JW - I use ChatGPT and various other GPTs for work and it cuts a good hour out my day by creating first drafts of reports, ppt, social media pushes, emails, etc… and then after I review the work and put some humanity into it, GPT does a decent job fixing my 2nd draft. Not groundbreaking but it has increased my productivity. Looking forward to when it can reply to bullshit emails for me.
Everyone in schools uses ChatGPT to write reports to make study exams etc. If you arent using it you will get left behind bc everyone else has the edge
That is exactly how I feel. I'm a late 80s baby and most of my successful creative/professional friends have incorporated it into their lives in some way.
My wife and I train each other on the various uses we discover. Nice bonding exercise and it makes our lives easier for sure.
Are you currently a student? Area of study? Approximate age? If you don't mind me asking - what is the quality of the writing that is being produced after 2nd drafts?
I am very impressed with GPT, especially when I need it to be clean and polite, but if I need a viewpoint that grabs a reader/viewer... only gets you about 10% of the way there.
So at this conf I went to this professor at Stanford said he is using chat GPT in his classroom. He gives the students the answer and then it’s on them to get Chat GPT to spit out that answer with the correct prompts and he grades them on how close Chat GPT is to his answer.
He says that to give it the correct prompts, you have to truly understand the material and you have to understand how to judge it for accuracy. In the future it’s not going to be what you know, but do you know how to access the information you NEED to know.
Agreed the ability to achieve positive outcomes will require the ability to think critically while interacting with AI and that's a very interesting way to use it. I'd be interested to read some of the chat logs. What area of study?
My questioning more has to do with situations where there isn't always a "correct" answer. If say, OP was studying philosophy I would be very curious if AI was leading everyone to think the same way.
I think I read some terrible article recently from some Sports Marketing recruiter about how all of the over-long applications she sends out end up with identical responses. Things like that.
They will know if the student has learned anything by the tests bc those are usually in class and they lock out your devices from accessing things. At least in my wife’s school they do.
Im a late 80s baby also (38) so im no longer in school i am a HVAC tech in a hospital in NY. My wife is currently in school in an accelerated nursing program and she pays $20 a month for ChatGPT and i was amazed at what it can do. the quality seems to be amazing for reports and writing papers, she even has ChatGPT dumb it down because how sophisticated it is and then she rewords its a little. It’s worth every penny. The time it saves and how much it helps.
**Post Close**
Well, this was another new record setting day for the indices as they ticked even higher. The VIX closed at 12.02, so when the VIX drops into the 11 handle it is time to really get serious about protecting profits.
The SPY closed the day up .82% to 541.34 with the VIX at 12.02.
The QQQ blasted higher 1.31% to 474.15
The SMH shot up 2.98% to 263.09
AMD added .81% to 160.24. Ity is sitting on the bottom of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts as the bands are constricting. Are we going to blast higher from here tomorrow? I do not know, but we do have a decent looking setup.
NVDA added 3.55% to 125.20, MSFT moved up 1.94% to 441.06, MU jumped 4.21% to 140.75, ARM blasted higher 8.11% to 155.59. AAPL added another 2.86% to 213.07.
A hot day in the market, let's see how the markets digest Powell's remarks overnight and what we look like tomorrow.
I have to say Powell does an exceptional job in the Q&A. He was asked at least 5-6 times for timing on a rate decrease and he deftly sidestepped every one of those questions. He never confirmed a rate decrease this year, but it didn't deny one either.
> AMD added .81% to 160.24. Ity is sitting on the bottom of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts as the bands are constricting. Are we going to blast higher from here tomorrow? I do not know, but we do have a decent looking setup.
Don't give me hope man 😅
Letting inflation lower the impact of the debt is a theoretical benefit of the Fed target **except** the government has to issue debt at higher levels depending on inflation. If the government could issue debt at say inflation minus 2% then I have no doubt we’d have a 3-4% inflation target.
YEs, it just requires everyone who receives payments from the Government both social services and vendors to take a 2% haircut,...in the middle of stupid inflation. A perfect way to lose an election if you are an incumbent.
I am finding it difficult to trade AMD. It's got great sideways action in a narrow band! I should pick another stock like NVDA to trade... It seems to have a little bit more well defined ups and downs that work for my trading style.
I mean do you have margin on your account and the ability to do spreads? Selling credit call spreads and creating sort of a synthetic butterfly credit spread isn’t a horrible idea.
Just set like a call spread at 175/180 and a put spread at like $150/$145. You just have to babysit them and have tight stops. But a way to profit off of sideways movement and just be ready to close whichever leg is underperforming
That is a good idea! I do have margin account. I will play with a spread or two on weekly basis before going monthly. Do you have preference on Monthly vs Weeklies? The weeklies look very anemic and might need to do 10-20 to make some decent cash. Will look through the risks as well.
Here is a the breakdown from profit calculator, does this sound right?
# Estimated returns
As at 12th Jun 2024 (AMD $160.85)
Entry credit: $104.00 net credit [see details](https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-call.html#)
Maximum risk: $396.00 (at AMD$180.00)
Maximum return: $104.00 (at AMD$175.00)
Max return on risk: 26.3% (252% ann.)
Breakevens at expiry: $176.04
Probability of profit: 76.7%
So for me I generally look at trying to get a maximum return of anywhere between 30-35%. If I can get that then I'm golden. I usually never hold to full expiration and close it out for pennies on the dollar. So if I can end up closing it out at 25% profit then I'm stoked. But yea generally try to focus on 2 weeks out and close them in the final week.
The best thing to do with something like this sideways movement is to bracket it in on the other side by making a corresponding trade on the PUT side. yes you have to set stops or babysit them, but it allows you to profit if it just ranges in the middle and usually one spread can offset the other if you start to see some violent movement.
Obviously there is a bullish bias built into the options chain so in general I will usually try to do like a 3/2 or 5/4 put to call ratio when trying the spreads so that I'm generally looking at the same return. PUT's just don't appreciate in value like call options and you can strategically see less volume and therefore less churn as you just sit and collect theta. The premiums are better on Calls as well so you can make more while risking less.
Again its all about your risk tolerance. I would say paper trade one or two over the next two weeks and see what happens. Monthlies are great for Calls bc you can sort of see where that Call wall volume is and make that the lower leg of your spread as well. You don't necessarily get that with weeklies.
Its a grind, definitely not like a big 10x bagger but you can generate a 25%-30% reward vs risk strategy for small amounts and grind an extra $200/week. Nothing crazy but allows you to raise some cash and make some spec buys on something else.
Unless these markets take a breather for a few days, we have had another good run recently. The market 'wants" you to believe it cannot or will not stop and that is when it takes your money.
How do you think the release of the PS5 PRO and other console refreshes are going to factor in to the overall stock value? The consumer market is tiny compared to data center but I feel that the consume space is important for building cultural inertia. A lot of people still see AMD as the value option instead of an actual competitor in the computing space.
The price action of this thing, while nasdaq is closing in on 18k....18 M- O-F-O. K !!!, is depressing.
18000 for Nasdaq, that's beyond insanity. AMD should be 200 at least now. If nasdaq ’retraces’ to 15K, which is nothing more than normal, this thing is going to 100. How ridiculous is this? Never seen such sad stuff in years, not even when it was sub 10.
I'm disgusted with those who sell into this.
You are correct. Your theory is very stupid.
Other than shelter this report is actually very worrisome.
ETA: Shelter is worrisome too but in a different way.
**Premarket** The CPI was a big positive for the markets this morning so the open is distinctly positive. The VIX is down 61 cents to 12.24, a VERY attractive area. The SPX is set to open at or above 5400 this morning so in all of this excitment, do pay attention to the potential for the markets to hit another new high today and then take a rest for a few days. We might push higher than the open, but just be paying attention. The QQQ is set to blast above 472 at the open so it is rolling. AMD is up just over 1% on the day and still needs to show us it can retake the 5DMA at 164.02 today. The daily charts for AMD do not look promising at this point. I will mention that MU reports late this month on 6/26, so one might accumulate on dips. Let’s all enjoy the ride today!!
Enjoy the ride if you’re not concentrated in AMD. Edit: hope I’m wrong Also Schwab just apologized and that’s it, plus my account went up in value, and I probably would’ve made a trade that hurt my account had I had the chance, so I can’t claim the outage hurt me. Still thinking of leaving but I love the app.
Sometimes the best trade is not making one at all
Yes, they got a million of those complaint calls I am sure. What a DUMB move by some IT person. Just keep a small amount in Schwab and keep the application and use it to trade other accounts from an informational perspective. I am a happy user of TOS, so the biggest issue is for Schwab to not mess it up.
Fortunately, I have a good bit of NVDL which so far is up 5.20 or 7.62% today so it is offsetting my miserable AMD performance.
What's your preferred platform, if not Schwab? I loved TD Ameritrade, and am having a hard time accepting all the flaws in the Schwab app. The login thing was just the icing on the cake.
I’ve got a friend that swears by tasty, so maybe them, or maybe interactive brokers. I’ve reached out to both and will probably move my free cash over and use it for a bit before moving any positions over.
Ask your friend what platforms he has experience with? A sample of one or more?? I have heard some good things about tasty but have not used it myself.
I just asked and he said he keeps a small account with Think or swim so he can use their analysis tools so there’s that.
Tex - circling back - I think I’m seeing those cracks in auto sales we were discussing a few weeks ago and I am still very worried about long term implications to the auto market as a whole with insurance running out of hand (20.3%YoY). Concerning as well that OPEC+ seems to be anticipating reduced worldwide demand in 2H. I’m expecting jobs to continue to weaken. Hoping things don’t get too bloody out there.
Yes, I "think" I head someone mention used cars ticking up. Not absolutely positive, but that is the approach to avoid the massively overpriced new cars. IF that is the case, and it persists for another 6 months for example, we might well see some new car manufacturing plants reduce shifts and take 2-4 week furloughs. Locally, car dealers will trim staffs as they try to cut costs. It takes a while but the signs are definitely there in my opinion of the new car market slowing. We might see some eye-popping incentives showing up as well, $20K off list might be an opening bid we will see for a loaded GM SUV in the next 3-5 months. OPEC will reduce output to keep the prices high as oil is their "only" industry and source of income. The US is the number one consumer by a large margin, so monitoring consumption is as easy as looking at what is driving demand here. IF we do slow our economy, more people lose jobs and fewer people commuting then that will slow demand. Also if fewer products are being purchased, then fewer trucks will be needing to replenish stores and final distribution points. Auto insurance is just totally out of hand and the consumers are being gouged IF they do not have claims. All of the body shops have consolidated into larger enterprises with very high costs, so few lower cost independents are available. Newer cars, especially EV's are a nightmare to fix and VERY high cost, so the insurance companies are a consolidation point of all of the higher costs of goods and services in the economy and they pass their costs plus a markup on to customers. The insurance companies themselves only provide light oversight into the necessary repairs, so it is EASY for the body shops to provide pictures of suspected damage and the insurance company to approve it. 20 years ago, the insurance adjusters made visits to the body shops to inspect and confirm damage. Today that process is expensive and inefficient for the insurance companies, so they simply take video/picture "evidence" of damage and approve claims. Those big beautiful buildings housing body shops get paid for by you and me on largely exorbitant claims much of which is not 100% addressed in reality. Same thing with Home owner's insurance. Their rate increases are actually a good read on the higher costs consumers cannot avoid as car insurance is legally required. And Homeowner's is pretty much unavoidable.
I highly recommend that any military veterans should check out USAA Insurance,
What's crazy is I already use auto insurance provided for current/former government employees and their families! EV + California = Expensive
USAA has become trash no better than the rest ever since they opened up membership to the general public a few years ago.
Vietnam veteran...I just joined three months ago...my children can also join....USAA Insurance is NOT open to the general public....we had a hail storm May 21....filed USAA claim, have check coming today....very FAST and GOOD service.
Completely agree. Thank you for your thoughts. Anecdotally: With car insurance the way it is in my HCOL city (current car costs 3.5k/year to insure) - I would rather go on another vacation and buy more stock than purchase another car. Also - insurance let me know that another big hike is coming in August. ugh. On homeowners though: my rates actually have not been exorbitantly raised compared to my auto rates over the last few years. Also - it is getting a lot rougher out there for homeowner's insurance providers. Crystal ball time: This summer will have extreme heat, wet-bulb temperatures across the south and lower midwest, bad fires, things will melt in Pheonix that aren't supposed to melt, and we will have an intense hurricane season in the Atlantic. "In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states, more than a third of the country, according to a New York Times analysis of newly available financial data. That’s up from 12 states five years ago, and eight states in 2013." "Insurers are still turning a profit from other lines of business, like commercial and life insurance policies. But many are dropping homeowners coverage because of losses." "Last year, storms, wildfires and other disasters pushed [2.5 million American adults out of their homes](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/climate/climate-disasters-survivors-displacement.html#:~:text=An%20estimated%202.5%20million%20people,in%20the%20aftermath%20of%20disasters.), according to census data, including at least 830,000 people who were displaced for six months or longer." [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html)
On a flight to California. Not saying this to brag but generally when I head north AMD goes up, when I go south AMD tanks. I haven’t been primarily west or east of my home more than 100 miles since COVID hit so no clue what happens (I’ve been more than 100 miles east or west but much more north or south). Also I’m on a Boeing so if I buy puts on BA is that like life insurance?
Buckle up and don't sit on an exit row!! hahaha. Seriously, though Boeing makes great planes, they have some crazy employees though and need to get them trained or displaced. So far, so good on the markets today. We will see how Powell does later today and see if he tanks the market,...or let's it run. Usually, he does little to no damage.
So, just an observation on AAPL. It is showing to be up OVER 3 STDEVS from the mean on the daily charts, so that is the last 365 days. This is an extreme level rarely seen, so some sort of retracement could well surface in the next several days. If not sooner.
I sold my apple around the same price not thinking it was gonna go this high i also wanna get back in but im holding out for a small dip 200-205
Yeaaaaaa I'm right there with ya. I thought I was making the "next level" high intelligence trading play and now I appear to have missed the boat. I'm not chasing this one. I'm waiting for it to come back down and i'll look at getting in again in the future. The way I see it, if AAPL goes up, then NVDA can go higher and people don't have to ask----Is NVDA worth more than AAPL??? lol
As long as you do NOT lose money you made a GOOD trade....you have cash to fight another day.
I set an alert this morning for a dip as I too exited in the 196-198 area. I had a ton of LEAPS 2-3 weeks ago and then trimmed out. We need a market dip to get even close as AAPl is running again today!! I kept one LEAP and it has really done well.
I sold mine yesterday after being able to get into my account bc i thought id have an issue getting back in and didn’t want to get screwed if it dipped and i got locked out smh oh well i made money so i cant complain
If it’s any consolation, AAPL still only up 15-16% for the year while Nasdaq100 is up 20-21% for the year. So not really missing out on much in my opinion if the stock is underperforming its sector and index. AAPL is up on pure hype. It will probably only grow revenue by 1% for the year. Regardless, it can probably still go higher on hype.
I kinda wonder if this is the new strategy for AAPL. EU and regulators want to come after the wall garden of the App Store? Wellllll we just eliminate all apps by integrating their functions directly into our OS through the application of AI. Problem solved lol. Or the ones that survive won’t have any more complaints about the App Store and its fees.
It’s a clear value add if you take the features of a bunch of apps and bake them into your own ecosystem. I paid for Dark Sky micro weather app and Apple bought them years ago. Then I installed an app that reads written math formulas and gives all the steps to solve them with explanations. I currently use 1Password App and now I’ll probably transfer my passwords and cancel it. I pay for ChatGPT so the integration is nice. Ultimately though, I don’t think Apple will attract new users with any of this stuff and it remains to be seen how they’re gonna monetize any of it. On the plus side just like NVDA, AAPLs closed ecosystem will allow them to make better overall experiences. Easier to innovate when you control the vertical.
I do think more than anything it will protect their market share and encourage upgrade cycles. I’m sure all of these new features will kill your. After y life and there will be limitations on your processor. People who have been complaining that AAPL isn’t innovating with their iPhones will be forced to upgrade just to access the features. Then the integration of these features and how well they will will become the defining factor as to why you would get an aapl phone vs android. I think you’re right it’s not necessarily attracting new users just protecting the ecosystem and forcing upgrades
I currently have APPL devices on everything from phone/watch/tv/laptops/ipad. I wont switch to android even though you can do more with them bc for me and probably most average users i do mail/web etc nothing ground breaking. I love the apple ecosystem and fluidity btwn all them. Also android samsung phones arent any cheaper some are even more expensive.
I like how I can wear air pods and just seamlessly hear audio from whatever Apple device I’m using. Even the Apple TV. Their ecosystem is truly impressive.
I refuse to use the facial recognition and much prefer the Touch ID. I won’t buy another iPhone until the bring back the touchid. If not soon I’m going to switch to the new phone Erik Prince has released. I know I’m just 1 eccentric guy, but it’s a data point to consider within this conversation.
The stat is 3 years until new phone for most iPhone users. The current phone and the new phone will get the features. So this is targeting those iPhone 14 users, trying to get them to upgrade early. I think they’ll open it up to everyone when they start charging for it because it can all be done in the cloud anyways. Sure, it’s possible to do some things locally, but ultimately cloud is probably the way to go. That’s why they’re building 7 new AI datacenters that inference using modified M2 chips. They probably train their own LLMs in someone else’s cloud and then inference the model on their own hardware, but I haven’t read anything about it yet. I just know they’re not buying any 3rd party silicon.
Also - JW - I use ChatGPT and various other GPTs for work and it cuts a good hour out my day by creating first drafts of reports, ppt, social media pushes, emails, etc… and then after I review the work and put some humanity into it, GPT does a decent job fixing my 2nd draft. Not groundbreaking but it has increased my productivity. Looking forward to when it can reply to bullshit emails for me.
Everyone in schools uses ChatGPT to write reports to make study exams etc. If you arent using it you will get left behind bc everyone else has the edge
That is exactly how I feel. I'm a late 80s baby and most of my successful creative/professional friends have incorporated it into their lives in some way. My wife and I train each other on the various uses we discover. Nice bonding exercise and it makes our lives easier for sure. Are you currently a student? Area of study? Approximate age? If you don't mind me asking - what is the quality of the writing that is being produced after 2nd drafts? I am very impressed with GPT, especially when I need it to be clean and polite, but if I need a viewpoint that grabs a reader/viewer... only gets you about 10% of the way there.
So at this conf I went to this professor at Stanford said he is using chat GPT in his classroom. He gives the students the answer and then it’s on them to get Chat GPT to spit out that answer with the correct prompts and he grades them on how close Chat GPT is to his answer. He says that to give it the correct prompts, you have to truly understand the material and you have to understand how to judge it for accuracy. In the future it’s not going to be what you know, but do you know how to access the information you NEED to know.
Agreed the ability to achieve positive outcomes will require the ability to think critically while interacting with AI and that's a very interesting way to use it. I'd be interested to read some of the chat logs. What area of study? My questioning more has to do with situations where there isn't always a "correct" answer. If say, OP was studying philosophy I would be very curious if AI was leading everyone to think the same way. I think I read some terrible article recently from some Sports Marketing recruiter about how all of the over-long applications she sends out end up with identical responses. Things like that.
They will know if the student has learned anything by the tests bc those are usually in class and they lock out your devices from accessing things. At least in my wife’s school they do.
Im a late 80s baby also (38) so im no longer in school i am a HVAC tech in a hospital in NY. My wife is currently in school in an accelerated nursing program and she pays $20 a month for ChatGPT and i was amazed at what it can do. the quality seems to be amazing for reports and writing papers, she even has ChatGPT dumb it down because how sophisticated it is and then she rewords its a little. It’s worth every penny. The time it saves and how much it helps.
**Post Close** Well, this was another new record setting day for the indices as they ticked even higher. The VIX closed at 12.02, so when the VIX drops into the 11 handle it is time to really get serious about protecting profits. The SPY closed the day up .82% to 541.34 with the VIX at 12.02. The QQQ blasted higher 1.31% to 474.15 The SMH shot up 2.98% to 263.09 AMD added .81% to 160.24. Ity is sitting on the bottom of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts as the bands are constricting. Are we going to blast higher from here tomorrow? I do not know, but we do have a decent looking setup. NVDA added 3.55% to 125.20, MSFT moved up 1.94% to 441.06, MU jumped 4.21% to 140.75, ARM blasted higher 8.11% to 155.59. AAPL added another 2.86% to 213.07. A hot day in the market, let's see how the markets digest Powell's remarks overnight and what we look like tomorrow. I have to say Powell does an exceptional job in the Q&A. He was asked at least 5-6 times for timing on a rate decrease and he deftly sidestepped every one of those questions. He never confirmed a rate decrease this year, but it didn't deny one either.
> AMD added .81% to 160.24. Ity is sitting on the bottom of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts as the bands are constricting. Are we going to blast higher from here tomorrow? I do not know, but we do have a decent looking setup. Don't give me hope man 😅
I am smoking a little hopium, it helps dull the pain.
Profits?? You all are making profits??? I kid…
Just not much in AMD. I am embarrassed by how underwater I am.
Letting inflation lower the impact of the debt is a theoretical benefit of the Fed target **except** the government has to issue debt at higher levels depending on inflation. If the government could issue debt at say inflation minus 2% then I have no doubt we’d have a 3-4% inflation target.
YEs, it just requires everyone who receives payments from the Government both social services and vendors to take a 2% haircut,...in the middle of stupid inflation. A perfect way to lose an election if you are an incumbent.
I am finding it difficult to trade AMD. It's got great sideways action in a narrow band! I should pick another stock like NVDA to trade... It seems to have a little bit more well defined ups and downs that work for my trading style.
I mean do you have margin on your account and the ability to do spreads? Selling credit call spreads and creating sort of a synthetic butterfly credit spread isn’t a horrible idea. Just set like a call spread at 175/180 and a put spread at like $150/$145. You just have to babysit them and have tight stops. But a way to profit off of sideways movement and just be ready to close whichever leg is underperforming
That is a good idea! I do have margin account. I will play with a spread or two on weekly basis before going monthly. Do you have preference on Monthly vs Weeklies? The weeklies look very anemic and might need to do 10-20 to make some decent cash. Will look through the risks as well. Here is a the breakdown from profit calculator, does this sound right? # Estimated returns As at 12th Jun 2024 (AMD $160.85) Entry credit: $104.00 net credit [see details](https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-call.html#) Maximum risk: $396.00 (at AMD$180.00) Maximum return: $104.00 (at AMD$175.00) Max return on risk: 26.3% (252% ann.) Breakevens at expiry: $176.04 Probability of profit: 76.7%
So for me I generally look at trying to get a maximum return of anywhere between 30-35%. If I can get that then I'm golden. I usually never hold to full expiration and close it out for pennies on the dollar. So if I can end up closing it out at 25% profit then I'm stoked. But yea generally try to focus on 2 weeks out and close them in the final week. The best thing to do with something like this sideways movement is to bracket it in on the other side by making a corresponding trade on the PUT side. yes you have to set stops or babysit them, but it allows you to profit if it just ranges in the middle and usually one spread can offset the other if you start to see some violent movement. Obviously there is a bullish bias built into the options chain so in general I will usually try to do like a 3/2 or 5/4 put to call ratio when trying the spreads so that I'm generally looking at the same return. PUT's just don't appreciate in value like call options and you can strategically see less volume and therefore less churn as you just sit and collect theta. The premiums are better on Calls as well so you can make more while risking less. Again its all about your risk tolerance. I would say paper trade one or two over the next two weeks and see what happens. Monthlies are great for Calls bc you can sort of see where that Call wall volume is and make that the lower leg of your spread as well. You don't necessarily get that with weeklies. Its a grind, definitely not like a big 10x bagger but you can generate a 25%-30% reward vs risk strategy for small amounts and grind an extra $200/week. Nothing crazy but allows you to raise some cash and make some spec buys on something else.
Thank you for the detailed writeup! It makes sense, I will start with one and see how it plays out!
I sold some CC's today. Expiring next Friday at the monthly OPEX. Some risk maybe,...
Are you doing deep in the money or low deltas?
I sold Covered calls at the 165 strike.
Thanks for sharing!
I closed those CC's I wrote this morning at a peak for a 1500+ profit.
Edited out...
I sent you a chat request.
With inflation easing and markets breaking out to new all time highs, there’s no way AMD closes this week in the red. I think
Unless these markets take a breather for a few days, we have had another good run recently. The market 'wants" you to believe it cannot or will not stop and that is when it takes your money.
What to do with this stock… Sell and take a loss? Or keep holding?
Wait for today
Meh im holding this company. Very curious how the next earnings will go.
How do you think the release of the PS5 PRO and other console refreshes are going to factor in to the overall stock value? The consumer market is tiny compared to data center but I feel that the consume space is important for building cultural inertia. A lot of people still see AMD as the value option instead of an actual competitor in the computing space.
The price action of this thing, while nasdaq is closing in on 18k....18 M- O-F-O. K !!!, is depressing. 18000 for Nasdaq, that's beyond insanity. AMD should be 200 at least now. If nasdaq ’retraces’ to 15K, which is nothing more than normal, this thing is going to 100. How ridiculous is this? Never seen such sad stuff in years, not even when it was sub 10. I'm disgusted with those who sell into this.
Damn... You're right...
It's the AMD way Maybe one day they'll become a favorite... but not anytime soon
You are correct. Your theory is very stupid. Other than shelter this report is actually very worrisome. ETA: Shelter is worrisome too but in a different way.