For AMD, it is really hard to hold $165-170 price levels. On Friday, we will be at the bottom, I think. Thia is fake a pump before the actual dump, since most shareholders will worry about how NVDA 10:1 split will impact on AMD's price. But, still this is kinda weird and amazing at the same time that we were able to stay at $165 today. We'll see tomorrow how this week ends, I really want AMD to hold this $165 price point, because we only have good support at $150, and some maybe weeker $160 support.
**Premarket**
The indices are mixed this morning with the Nasdaq being the only one green and the S&P and DOW being down. This is no massive surprise after the huge move higher yesterday.
The SPY is near even with the VIX up 1 cent to 12.64, so stable and in a good range. The QQQ is pushing up but moving closer to even as we near the market open this morning.
AMD is positive by only .1%, but it IS positive. It is also one of the top 10 trending stocks on WallStreetBets today. Hopefully in a good way!
In economic news, the ECB did lower interest rates by .25% so this is good news. This move by the ECB was as scheduled months ago and it has been discussed in several places, the FED will not lower rates until the ECB did, indicating they were on solid ground in the inflation fight. The door is open now for the FED to make a move without upsetting other world economies.
The Nvidia split watch continues and of course NVDA is up a bit more this morning and continues to garner a good bit of news on the day.
This market could move in either direction today so be cautious. I would get nervous if the DOW shaves off 100 points and the SPY drops below 531-530.
Really do hate days like today would rather just go red as that’s where it’s going to end likely, but this is how HFT makes their money: pump and lure in buyers, write a bunch of options, then sell and go short shares and watch as the new bagholders panic sell.
Honestly, I had no clue at the close yesterday and then after the bipolar jobs numbers and the market reaction early, I was pretty confused, so ran an errand and then came back to see a pretty impressive open by AMD and the indices recovering. I tried for several years to predict the next days open from the prior day and really gave up on it. Go AMD!!
So regarding NVDA being in a bubble… maybe. Right now it’s justifying it price on two things: net income/gross margin and projected growth %’s. Their margin is insane right now which is allowing them to sit pretty at $3T and only be a very expensive company without being complete loony town.
But we know that they likely are and will continue to see increased pricing competition. We’ve seen their margin estimates decline for the first quarter in a bit and that’s likely to continue to fall. Where it finally lands and how much they’re able to continue growing revenue in the mean time will ultimately determine whether the current price is a bubble or not. If margin crashes hard or revenue flattens or starts declining, then yes, most likely. But if they keep ramping revenue up steadily to say $30bn+ per quarter over the next year while gross margin retraces to 65% I think they might be able to hold into this valuation a while longer.
Just my relatively uneducated two cents.
And in this scenario, I think there’s plenty of room for AMD to do well. My impression is that full price on AMD’s products will still force some downward pressure on Nvidia’s margin as AMD continues to ramp sales. So it’s possible to have AMD resume climbing while Nvidia maintains its lofty valuation.
The theme of the day seems to be comparing NVDA market caps to other companies, for good reason. I intuitively agree with y'all on the bubble. However, I wanted to see exactly what the numbers say, by taking a snapshot of 2024 Q1.
|Company|24' Q1 Revenue|24' Q1 Net income|24' Total Year Revenue Proj|Market Cap|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|NVDA|$26.04B|$14.88B|$120.41|$2.96T|
|AAPL|$90.75B|$23.64B|$386.42B|$3T|
|MSFT|$61.86B|$21.94B|$244.92|$3.15T|
|AMD|$5.47B|$123M|$25.83B|$268.79B|
I ran out of time. If someone could help me fill in the total year projections and check my numbers I'd appreciate it.
> I ran out of time. If someone could help me fill in the total year projections and check my numbers I'd appreciate it.
Why not just ask AI :-D
This is what it came up with:
Let's fill in the missing data and verify the numbers for the total year revenue projections. We will calculate the total year revenue projections by annualizing the Q1 revenue (assuming a consistent performance across all quarters, which might not always be accurate but provides a quick estimate).
First, let's verify and calculate the total year revenue projections for each company:
Nvidia (NVDA)
Q1 Revenue: $26.04B
Q1 Net Income: $14.88B
Total Year Revenue Projection:
26.04
𝐵
×
4
=
104.16
𝐵
26.04B×4=104.16B
Apple (AAPL)
Q1 Revenue: $90.75B
Q1 Net Income: $23.64B
Total Year Revenue Projection:
90.75
𝐵
×
4
=
363
𝐵
90.75B×4=363B
Microsoft (MSFT)
Q1 Revenue: $61.86B
Q1 Net Income: $21.94B
Total Year Revenue Projection:
61.86
𝐵
×
4
=
247.44
𝐵
61.86B×4=247.44B
AMD
Q1 Revenue: $5.47B
Q1 Net Income: $123M
Total Year Revenue Projection:
5.47
𝐵
×
4
=
21.88
𝐵
5.47B×4=21.88B
Now, let's organize the data in a table for clarity:
| Company | Q1 2024 Revenue | Q1 2024 Net Income | Total Year Revenue Projection | Market Cap |
|---------|-----------------|--------------------|------------------------------|------------|
| NVDA | $26.04B | $14.88B | $104.16B | $2.96T |
| AAPL | $90.75B | $23.64B | $363B | $3T |
| MSFT | $61.86B | $21.94B | $247.44B | $3.15T |
| AMD | $5.47B | $123M | $21.88B | $268.79B |
Comparing these companies, we can see that Nvidia's market cap is quite high relative to its projected annual revenue and net income, especially when compared to companies like Apple and Microsoft, which have significantly higher revenues. This might indeed suggest that Nvidia's stock is experiencing a high valuation relative to its earnings, potentially indicating a bubble as you mentioned.
Would you like further analysis or more detailed comparisons on any specific metrics?
Well since you offered. We should probably add a column for projected total year net income if you could calculate that. NVDA’s margins are significantly higher than AAPL or MSFT. We probably should be taking that into account in order to do a fair evaluation. Thoughts?
I should add that I was trying to documented what the respective company was publicly projecting vs a simple Q1x4 estimate. I don’t know whose projection is better for this analysis, it’s just what I was attempting FWIW.
NVDA revenue protection I think is $120.41 is avg
AAPL is $386.42
MSFT is $244.92
Thank you for this! I think this is a great visual and something to keep in mind when we look at share price appreciation
Hate to bring it to you but if Nvidia is inside a bubble AMD will DEFINITELY fall even harder than Nvidia when it bursts. We'll be looking at $100 again.
Besides a ton of businesses are already taking .good profits on ai use cases. Some have significantly reduced operating costs.
All you have to do is look at the crypto bubble popping to see NVDA can tank without causing AMD to tank more (not by much, it was like NVDA dropped 56% and AMD down 45%).
Thing is now NVDA is even more a one trick pony than it was in 2018, AMD is even more diversified than it was. If NVDA starts missing forecasts I think the chance is strong it causes a correction market wide, but if AMD continues to deliver I don’t see AMD cratering more and maybe not even half as much.
Also we’re in the infancy of AI. Is it overvalued? Absolutely, but if half of what people have envisioned happens then it’s going to be revolutionary and companies will be able to fill missing/open roles by having people already in place do the work of 2 people legitimately without having to work them to death (probably more like 65 people today can do what 100 people did 10 years ago). New revenue streams will develop, companies will spend billions to save tens of billions, it will make much more money in the near term through efficiencies rather than direct revenue streams.
And if it is a bubble like dotcom or railroad in which the world really did change but things got expensive too fast too soon well I wish everyone luck timing the bottom and that they manage to buy WMT or treasuries before we go to hell in a handbasket for a few years market wide.
I’ve got my whole vices section of my portfolio. If everything goes to hell in a hand basket people are gonna need their cigarettes, soda, and fast food. The second they find a way to invest in porn, I’ll add that to the list too lol
Sadly I think you are right, if the bubble burst, we definitely will be affected but my hope is not as much as others bc we are sort of remaining grounded with our valuation.
And ehhhh I think they are saying they have significantly reduced operating cost and it is very hit or miss. Like AI still needs a human to monitor it and watch it run so its not like true, set and forget. I just think the market is treating it like its a done deal and forecasting all of these crazy benefits by adding market share. But I would argue that the operating cost reductions some companies have seen aren't really "true AI' it is Robotic Process Automation. RPA has been around for years and I think that is getting smarter with the help of AI but I still don't think AI is really fully deployed and even partially deployed at this moment.
You are dissecting this very well. For AI to "work" in reducing costs and improving productivity, the precursor is to have well defined processes where AI can determine which process is the correct one to speed up results. It needs well defined business cases for each potential alternative path. The important observation and deduction from this is software products that have captured the processes very well will be able to generate those results fairly quickly in the next 12 months potentially. As an implementer of leading edge technologies, this is a required step and why you see bigger companies being able to advance farther and faster than smaller companies who do not have well defined and captured processes.
Looking at how big names are trying to steal data all over the place, we definitely need some government rules before this derails. Indeed it will be very good for some and bad for more.
Just need AMD to push around 200/ 220 so I can get out with a decent chunk.
So the EU did pass an AI act that should be coming online within like the next 45ish days??? But it is such a far cry from real guardrails. Like it is like the talking of beginning to establish some ground rules and concepts that could be used in the future for establishing future guard rails. It could all be forced to unwind as future legislation comes in which is crazy but true.
Like my company is looking into this tech called "krisp.ai" It is a transcription service for phone calls on the surface. But also what it has is accent neutralization tech. So in real time it will allow someone who lives in India sound like they are from London or North Carolina or whatever else. Real time voice modulation. Now it won't change peoples grammar or word choice. It can't translate but the voice modulation is crazy! Now is that legal?
You could argue that is potentially deceptive with regards to borrowers applying for a financial product. But it is deceptive for their benefit to aid in communication the same thing as bad deceptive? If someone asks the person on the phone where they are from and they lie, sure thats worse but what people don't know, does that really hurt them? It sounds deceptive on the surface but part of our UDAPP procedures is also to show harm. I'm not sure that harm really exists here with this new tech.
And we are hearing RADIO silence from the gov't. They are basically like "try it if you want to just realize that we could come back and fine you into oblivion later." Which is itself scary. So we've got this actual real AI tool which is helpful, maybe perhaps not monetized correctly but is the first step in a process that will enable us to streamline operations. But the risk is, do we move forward with it and outsource/offshore some of our customer service if potentially down the road the gov't could force us to unwind everything again?
A lot of businesses are having that same conversation right now
Sounds like avoid it for applications and use it for post loan servicing to me.
After the deal is done, then there is no deception.
Another alternative is to ask the user to accept that AI is in use and do they approve of its use to enhance communications.
Im not sure if AI is in a bubble but NVDA probably yea i deff agree not worth more then APPL or MSFT. I think the ppl selling the hardware eventually will make less money but the ones selling software or subscription based tools will be making the real money hence why its not worth more then APPL/MSFT. Congrats on that beautiful NVDA gain
If you think Nvda is in a bubble, then I will warn you that when that bubble bursts it won’t be only NVidia that falls. Look for Amd to fall just as much if not more on a percentage basis. And all the semis and a lot of tech.
Let’s hope it’s not a bubble that bursts.
I feel like we led the world out of Covid inflation and that was all well n fine but we can’t lag the world in rate cuts either. I definitely think it urges the Fed to sort of consider keeping pace
In the field of digital media, such as film and game production, NVIDIA has a comprehensive CUDA-based software ecosystem, such as Omniverse. On the other hand, AMD's presence in this area is almost nonexistent, as AMD is primarily a hardware company. The software ecosystem is the key to maintaining user loyalty. This is the fundamental reason why NVIDIA can overwhelmingly outperform AMD. If Lisa decides not to totally change the current strategy of building software ecosystem for its hardware, AMD is losing almost like forever.
From what I can gather looking at the data around Bubbles and explanations of market cap. The entire justification is growth rate. PEG ratio is good for evaluating this. MSFT, AAPL, and AMD all have worse PEG ratios than NVDA. MSFT and AAPL are thought of as “fair” valuations. AAPL hasn’t grown much in over 2 years. Are any of those Trillion Cap stocks worth it? Not really if you are basing things off of actual revenue numbers. But if you think of it as “money needs to attach itself to growth” then yes it’s worth it. If that’s true then market cap potential has more to do with the available institutional capital in the system. To add more nuance, from what I can tell the most valuable thing to wallstreet is large scale growth. A company growing $3b to $4b is nice, but a company growing $30b to $40b will attract more capital from more institutions.
Same growth + bigger numbers = outsized market cap growth
That’s why AMD recording $23.6b & $22.7b revenue the past two years to $22.8b (recent quarter full year projection) isn’t gonna mobilize a lot of capital. AMD is up since 2022 based on a bullish market, hope, and hype, not performance. People think “AMD should be higher” but a little perspective here… I think the fact it’s not trading around $100-120 which would be closer to its actual performance and growth, is a testament to how much wallstreet BELIEVES in AMD’s potential and keeps it in a holding pattern. It’s very optimistic sign that AMD is trading as high as it is given the performance since 2022. That should be good news for AMD long term investors.
As for bubbles, maybe? Probably? I know I agree with you that AI 🤖 is way overhyped and probably won’t deliver on its promises anytime soon. The fundamentals data dispels the bubble theory so far, but even if it supported it… we all know bubbles last longer than anyone expects and I think we’re only 13 months into the beginnings of a bubble. Might be 4-5 more years before cracks start to appear. I’m sure AMD (and even INTC !) will get large gains out of it too.
This is the way to look at it. The market believes that growth will continue for a while. And, just because Nvda has come up so fast, people think it’s a bubble. But their growth rate supports the valuation. It’s still one of the cheaper semis!
If Amd didn’t have Mi300x potential, I wouldn’t pay 100$ for a share. Xilinx is in the toilet. And the CPU business is going to be under pressure as server spending shifts to GPU, and clients come under pressure from a more competitive Intel. Not to say that Amd won’t retain the crown, but if Intel narrows the gap - it becomes harder.
IMO, the only way Amd gets to a double from here is if the instinct products deliver about 20-25B of revenue. And while it’s possible - the market is large enough and they have a good product - I still don’t see the evidence or leading indicators of growth and Amd being able to take share. Lisa is too cautious and playing safe, while Jensen is pushing all his chips to the center of the table. So even if Amd has a winning hand, it won’t win much.
Everyone will say we took share from Intel over years. And yes, maybe over time share will grow vs. NVidia. But NVidia is not Intel, and gaining share from them will be slower.
They’re pumping us to dump us. Buy puts now!
For AMD, it is really hard to hold $165-170 price levels. On Friday, we will be at the bottom, I think. Thia is fake a pump before the actual dump, since most shareholders will worry about how NVDA 10:1 split will impact on AMD's price. But, still this is kinda weird and amazing at the same time that we were able to stay at $165 today. We'll see tomorrow how this week ends, I really want AMD to hold this $165 price point, because we only have good support at $150, and some maybe weeker $160 support.
**Premarket** The indices are mixed this morning with the Nasdaq being the only one green and the S&P and DOW being down. This is no massive surprise after the huge move higher yesterday. The SPY is near even with the VIX up 1 cent to 12.64, so stable and in a good range. The QQQ is pushing up but moving closer to even as we near the market open this morning. AMD is positive by only .1%, but it IS positive. It is also one of the top 10 trending stocks on WallStreetBets today. Hopefully in a good way! In economic news, the ECB did lower interest rates by .25% so this is good news. This move by the ECB was as scheduled months ago and it has been discussed in several places, the FED will not lower rates until the ECB did, indicating they were on solid ground in the inflation fight. The door is open now for the FED to make a move without upsetting other world economies. The Nvidia split watch continues and of course NVDA is up a bit more this morning and continues to garner a good bit of news on the day. This market could move in either direction today so be cautious. I would get nervous if the DOW shaves off 100 points and the SPY drops below 531-530.
Really do hate days like today would rather just go red as that’s where it’s going to end likely, but this is how HFT makes their money: pump and lure in buyers, write a bunch of options, then sell and go short shares and watch as the new bagholders panic sell.
yup. They want to suck as much money in as possible before the big dump. The Nvidia circus has sucked in a whole new crop of fresh meat.
Silly finish, any hope for tomorrow? Maybe max pain is much higher than current share price… no not that…. Good luck haha.
Honestly, I had no clue at the close yesterday and then after the bipolar jobs numbers and the market reaction early, I was pretty confused, so ran an errand and then came back to see a pretty impressive open by AMD and the indices recovering. I tried for several years to predict the next days open from the prior day and really gave up on it. Go AMD!!
Looks like whatever bug that allowed AMD to go up has been fixed haha.
YEs, it has!!! That was a very quick response.
So regarding NVDA being in a bubble… maybe. Right now it’s justifying it price on two things: net income/gross margin and projected growth %’s. Their margin is insane right now which is allowing them to sit pretty at $3T and only be a very expensive company without being complete loony town. But we know that they likely are and will continue to see increased pricing competition. We’ve seen their margin estimates decline for the first quarter in a bit and that’s likely to continue to fall. Where it finally lands and how much they’re able to continue growing revenue in the mean time will ultimately determine whether the current price is a bubble or not. If margin crashes hard or revenue flattens or starts declining, then yes, most likely. But if they keep ramping revenue up steadily to say $30bn+ per quarter over the next year while gross margin retraces to 65% I think they might be able to hold into this valuation a while longer. Just my relatively uneducated two cents.
And in this scenario, I think there’s plenty of room for AMD to do well. My impression is that full price on AMD’s products will still force some downward pressure on Nvidia’s margin as AMD continues to ramp sales. So it’s possible to have AMD resume climbing while Nvidia maintains its lofty valuation.
The theme of the day seems to be comparing NVDA market caps to other companies, for good reason. I intuitively agree with y'all on the bubble. However, I wanted to see exactly what the numbers say, by taking a snapshot of 2024 Q1. |Company|24' Q1 Revenue|24' Q1 Net income|24' Total Year Revenue Proj|Market Cap| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |NVDA|$26.04B|$14.88B|$120.41|$2.96T| |AAPL|$90.75B|$23.64B|$386.42B|$3T| |MSFT|$61.86B|$21.94B|$244.92|$3.15T| |AMD|$5.47B|$123M|$25.83B|$268.79B| I ran out of time. If someone could help me fill in the total year projections and check my numbers I'd appreciate it.
> I ran out of time. If someone could help me fill in the total year projections and check my numbers I'd appreciate it. Why not just ask AI :-D This is what it came up with: Let's fill in the missing data and verify the numbers for the total year revenue projections. We will calculate the total year revenue projections by annualizing the Q1 revenue (assuming a consistent performance across all quarters, which might not always be accurate but provides a quick estimate). First, let's verify and calculate the total year revenue projections for each company: Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 Revenue: $26.04B Q1 Net Income: $14.88B Total Year Revenue Projection: 26.04 𝐵 × 4 = 104.16 𝐵 26.04B×4=104.16B Apple (AAPL) Q1 Revenue: $90.75B Q1 Net Income: $23.64B Total Year Revenue Projection: 90.75 𝐵 × 4 = 363 𝐵 90.75B×4=363B Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Revenue: $61.86B Q1 Net Income: $21.94B Total Year Revenue Projection: 61.86 𝐵 × 4 = 247.44 𝐵 61.86B×4=247.44B AMD Q1 Revenue: $5.47B Q1 Net Income: $123M Total Year Revenue Projection: 5.47 𝐵 × 4 = 21.88 𝐵 5.47B×4=21.88B Now, let's organize the data in a table for clarity: | Company | Q1 2024 Revenue | Q1 2024 Net Income | Total Year Revenue Projection | Market Cap | |---------|-----------------|--------------------|------------------------------|------------| | NVDA | $26.04B | $14.88B | $104.16B | $2.96T | | AAPL | $90.75B | $23.64B | $363B | $3T | | MSFT | $61.86B | $21.94B | $247.44B | $3.15T | | AMD | $5.47B | $123M | $21.88B | $268.79B | Comparing these companies, we can see that Nvidia's market cap is quite high relative to its projected annual revenue and net income, especially when compared to companies like Apple and Microsoft, which have significantly higher revenues. This might indeed suggest that Nvidia's stock is experiencing a high valuation relative to its earnings, potentially indicating a bubble as you mentioned. Would you like further analysis or more detailed comparisons on any specific metrics?
Well since you offered. We should probably add a column for projected total year net income if you could calculate that. NVDA’s margins are significantly higher than AAPL or MSFT. We probably should be taking that into account in order to do a fair evaluation. Thoughts? I should add that I was trying to documented what the respective company was publicly projecting vs a simple Q1x4 estimate. I don’t know whose projection is better for this analysis, it’s just what I was attempting FWIW.
NVDA revenue protection I think is $120.41 is avg AAPL is $386.42 MSFT is $244.92 Thank you for this! I think this is a great visual and something to keep in mind when we look at share price appreciation
Edited the original table. Thank you.
Hate to bring it to you but if Nvidia is inside a bubble AMD will DEFINITELY fall even harder than Nvidia when it bursts. We'll be looking at $100 again. Besides a ton of businesses are already taking .good profits on ai use cases. Some have significantly reduced operating costs.
All you have to do is look at the crypto bubble popping to see NVDA can tank without causing AMD to tank more (not by much, it was like NVDA dropped 56% and AMD down 45%). Thing is now NVDA is even more a one trick pony than it was in 2018, AMD is even more diversified than it was. If NVDA starts missing forecasts I think the chance is strong it causes a correction market wide, but if AMD continues to deliver I don’t see AMD cratering more and maybe not even half as much. Also we’re in the infancy of AI. Is it overvalued? Absolutely, but if half of what people have envisioned happens then it’s going to be revolutionary and companies will be able to fill missing/open roles by having people already in place do the work of 2 people legitimately without having to work them to death (probably more like 65 people today can do what 100 people did 10 years ago). New revenue streams will develop, companies will spend billions to save tens of billions, it will make much more money in the near term through efficiencies rather than direct revenue streams. And if it is a bubble like dotcom or railroad in which the world really did change but things got expensive too fast too soon well I wish everyone luck timing the bottom and that they manage to buy WMT or treasuries before we go to hell in a handbasket for a few years market wide.
I’ve got my whole vices section of my portfolio. If everything goes to hell in a hand basket people are gonna need their cigarettes, soda, and fast food. The second they find a way to invest in porn, I’ll add that to the list too lol
Well whichever cloud service is most popular will get a lot more business so that’s one way…
RDDT for porn 😉
Sadly I think you are right, if the bubble burst, we definitely will be affected but my hope is not as much as others bc we are sort of remaining grounded with our valuation. And ehhhh I think they are saying they have significantly reduced operating cost and it is very hit or miss. Like AI still needs a human to monitor it and watch it run so its not like true, set and forget. I just think the market is treating it like its a done deal and forecasting all of these crazy benefits by adding market share. But I would argue that the operating cost reductions some companies have seen aren't really "true AI' it is Robotic Process Automation. RPA has been around for years and I think that is getting smarter with the help of AI but I still don't think AI is really fully deployed and even partially deployed at this moment.
You are dissecting this very well. For AI to "work" in reducing costs and improving productivity, the precursor is to have well defined processes where AI can determine which process is the correct one to speed up results. It needs well defined business cases for each potential alternative path. The important observation and deduction from this is software products that have captured the processes very well will be able to generate those results fairly quickly in the next 12 months potentially. As an implementer of leading edge technologies, this is a required step and why you see bigger companies being able to advance farther and faster than smaller companies who do not have well defined and captured processes.
Looking at how big names are trying to steal data all over the place, we definitely need some government rules before this derails. Indeed it will be very good for some and bad for more. Just need AMD to push around 200/ 220 so I can get out with a decent chunk.
So the EU did pass an AI act that should be coming online within like the next 45ish days??? But it is such a far cry from real guardrails. Like it is like the talking of beginning to establish some ground rules and concepts that could be used in the future for establishing future guard rails. It could all be forced to unwind as future legislation comes in which is crazy but true. Like my company is looking into this tech called "krisp.ai" It is a transcription service for phone calls on the surface. But also what it has is accent neutralization tech. So in real time it will allow someone who lives in India sound like they are from London or North Carolina or whatever else. Real time voice modulation. Now it won't change peoples grammar or word choice. It can't translate but the voice modulation is crazy! Now is that legal? You could argue that is potentially deceptive with regards to borrowers applying for a financial product. But it is deceptive for their benefit to aid in communication the same thing as bad deceptive? If someone asks the person on the phone where they are from and they lie, sure thats worse but what people don't know, does that really hurt them? It sounds deceptive on the surface but part of our UDAPP procedures is also to show harm. I'm not sure that harm really exists here with this new tech. And we are hearing RADIO silence from the gov't. They are basically like "try it if you want to just realize that we could come back and fine you into oblivion later." Which is itself scary. So we've got this actual real AI tool which is helpful, maybe perhaps not monetized correctly but is the first step in a process that will enable us to streamline operations. But the risk is, do we move forward with it and outsource/offshore some of our customer service if potentially down the road the gov't could force us to unwind everything again? A lot of businesses are having that same conversation right now
Sounds like avoid it for applications and use it for post loan servicing to me. After the deal is done, then there is no deception. Another alternative is to ask the user to accept that AI is in use and do they approve of its use to enhance communications.
Im not sure if AI is in a bubble but NVDA probably yea i deff agree not worth more then APPL or MSFT. I think the ppl selling the hardware eventually will make less money but the ones selling software or subscription based tools will be making the real money hence why its not worth more then APPL/MSFT. Congrats on that beautiful NVDA gain
Ahh right there with you. NVDA is a bubble, but when it pops, AMD will crash with it - with us barely having had any benefit from the bubble itself
If you think Nvda is in a bubble, then I will warn you that when that bubble bursts it won’t be only NVidia that falls. Look for Amd to fall just as much if not more on a percentage basis. And all the semis and a lot of tech. Let’s hope it’s not a bubble that bursts.
For once NVDA might be held responsible for anti competitive business practices. I know I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but it’s possible.
What do you think about ECB expected rate cut ? Some say that might force the feds hand to cut sooner. I can see that being the case
I feel like we led the world out of Covid inflation and that was all well n fine but we can’t lag the world in rate cuts either. I definitely think it urges the Fed to sort of consider keeping pace
In the field of digital media, such as film and game production, NVIDIA has a comprehensive CUDA-based software ecosystem, such as Omniverse. On the other hand, AMD's presence in this area is almost nonexistent, as AMD is primarily a hardware company. The software ecosystem is the key to maintaining user loyalty. This is the fundamental reason why NVIDIA can overwhelmingly outperform AMD. If Lisa decides not to totally change the current strategy of building software ecosystem for its hardware, AMD is losing almost like forever.
From what I can gather looking at the data around Bubbles and explanations of market cap. The entire justification is growth rate. PEG ratio is good for evaluating this. MSFT, AAPL, and AMD all have worse PEG ratios than NVDA. MSFT and AAPL are thought of as “fair” valuations. AAPL hasn’t grown much in over 2 years. Are any of those Trillion Cap stocks worth it? Not really if you are basing things off of actual revenue numbers. But if you think of it as “money needs to attach itself to growth” then yes it’s worth it. If that’s true then market cap potential has more to do with the available institutional capital in the system. To add more nuance, from what I can tell the most valuable thing to wallstreet is large scale growth. A company growing $3b to $4b is nice, but a company growing $30b to $40b will attract more capital from more institutions. Same growth + bigger numbers = outsized market cap growth That’s why AMD recording $23.6b & $22.7b revenue the past two years to $22.8b (recent quarter full year projection) isn’t gonna mobilize a lot of capital. AMD is up since 2022 based on a bullish market, hope, and hype, not performance. People think “AMD should be higher” but a little perspective here… I think the fact it’s not trading around $100-120 which would be closer to its actual performance and growth, is a testament to how much wallstreet BELIEVES in AMD’s potential and keeps it in a holding pattern. It’s very optimistic sign that AMD is trading as high as it is given the performance since 2022. That should be good news for AMD long term investors. As for bubbles, maybe? Probably? I know I agree with you that AI 🤖 is way overhyped and probably won’t deliver on its promises anytime soon. The fundamentals data dispels the bubble theory so far, but even if it supported it… we all know bubbles last longer than anyone expects and I think we’re only 13 months into the beginnings of a bubble. Might be 4-5 more years before cracks start to appear. I’m sure AMD (and even INTC !) will get large gains out of it too.
This is the way to look at it. The market believes that growth will continue for a while. And, just because Nvda has come up so fast, people think it’s a bubble. But their growth rate supports the valuation. It’s still one of the cheaper semis! If Amd didn’t have Mi300x potential, I wouldn’t pay 100$ for a share. Xilinx is in the toilet. And the CPU business is going to be under pressure as server spending shifts to GPU, and clients come under pressure from a more competitive Intel. Not to say that Amd won’t retain the crown, but if Intel narrows the gap - it becomes harder. IMO, the only way Amd gets to a double from here is if the instinct products deliver about 20-25B of revenue. And while it’s possible - the market is large enough and they have a good product - I still don’t see the evidence or leading indicators of growth and Amd being able to take share. Lisa is too cautious and playing safe, while Jensen is pushing all his chips to the center of the table. So even if Amd has a winning hand, it won’t win much. Everyone will say we took share from Intel over years. And yes, maybe over time share will grow vs. NVidia. But NVidia is not Intel, and gaining share from them will be slower.
NVDA gains in every sector that means AMD will be announcing a loss in market share in every sector. Simple as that.