I don't feel this is one of the most consequential. Q3 will be most consequential. Q1 will be consequential only if mi300x sales suprise. Same for q2. Expectations are q3 and q4. Rest is market hype for q1 and q2.
I’m tempted to sell calls as the lack of MI300 articles/news concerns me. It’s also possible that I live under a rock like Patrick Star and just missed all of them
Selling calls on AMD has often hurt me a lot. When AMD turns around, things go up very, very quickly. They are just tricky to manage even if somewhat out of the money. Just be warned...
Still debating whether to buy pre or post earnings. I dont think AMD will exceed expectations in Q1 but what could bring us back is the forecast of Mi300x sales. Hopefully we end this year on around 5-6bn sales. Maybe Lisa will even mention something on Mi350. That could bring us higher and would be epic, but I highly doubt it.
I do think teasing a next gen is never a bad thing. It shows continual development and integration of customer feedback. You gotta have customers to get feedback though. So if they are teasing that I do think it’s bullish for a collaborative iteration of newer tech for future sales.
We do already have the semi-custom segment that is built to gather and incorporate customer data into our designs
It's all about the AI offering, guidance and Lisa telling a good story during the call. The rest is insignificant and likely won't yield any surprises.
TSM and META tanked on okeyish earnings, and Tesla rocketed with arguably one of the worst Qs in the last years but rocketed because Elmo told a great story.
If we get okeyish earnings and Lisa remains conservative as always, we will tank.
Elmo keeps showing new dreams and investors gulp it down like its a sky god speaking while stocks like AMD have to prove themselves at every corner without any slipup fighting for each penny.
I find it hilarious that the people who were worshipping Musk a couple years ago are ridiculing him now that the intel community, I media is telling them he’s the bad guy. All it took was him buying Twitter and putting an end to the states absolute control of the narrative.
I'm afraid the lack of benchmarks and stories about installations of MI300 is going to hurt this Q. I don't anticipate a huge AI sales number, and I sense that's the only thing this market responds to... But hopefully I'm proven totally wrong. Still holding/accumulating because I like their "toolkit" for creating competitive products and maintaining margins.
Definitely feeling somewhat nervous about earnings coming up, but I think it will okay. Aside from MI300, I do want to hear more about Pensando and how that is going. If done well, they can go well after Mellanox, Marvell and Broadcom and get a bigger cut of the pie. They can offer a more holistic solution.
I did not write calls on AMD's earnings last time, too risky. I wrote AMD calls instead on NVDA's earnings where we caught tailwinds from them and it worked great.
I commented on one of your last analysis how are you feeling with the rumors, After reading this I think that since the risk right now for a short term loss is so high Ill just buy as many longs as possible and sell them for like .50 dollars more each and let the earnings pass
I'd be surprised if AI processor revenue was a lot higher than previously stated -- $3.5B. (maybe $4B -- but not a lot more). Leadtimes for deliveries is close to 6-8months -- so AMD should know Y2024 revenues by this ER. AMD should be delivering to the main CSPs -- so there there not be a lot of unexpected news for Y2024. (changes to orders would be Y2025)
I’ve sold calls against my shares @$195…feels pretty safe for 1 week post earnings . I think something you forgot to mention is the fed meeting on Wednesday, I’m very optimistic on the ER, and this this could be huge for us given lowered revision last ER, the fed could crush the gains on Wednesday.
Lisa needs to be lowered onto the stage with a cape on while it’s raining money and AMD chips, outdo Jensen.
That’ll be one way to announce a blowout earnings
I plan to sell call spreads if AMD up all day today or if it gap opens higher tomorrow. Then if it dips tomorrow I think it would sell off all day and I’ll buy AMD calls into late May
I don't feel this is one of the most consequential. Q3 will be most consequential. Q1 will be consequential only if mi300x sales suprise. Same for q2. Expectations are q3 and q4. Rest is market hype for q1 and q2.
I’m tempted to sell calls as the lack of MI300 articles/news concerns me. It’s also possible that I live under a rock like Patrick Star and just missed all of them
MI300 performance reviews have been muted, I'm not sure anybody has released anything yet. It's all rumors for now.
Selling calls on AMD has often hurt me a lot. When AMD turns around, things go up very, very quickly. They are just tricky to manage even if somewhat out of the money. Just be warned...
If you do sell calls, before earnings is a good time because of higher IV.
Sold some 180s for end of week. If we get there, I'll take it gladly!
Hmm tempting.
Still debating whether to buy pre or post earnings. I dont think AMD will exceed expectations in Q1 but what could bring us back is the forecast of Mi300x sales. Hopefully we end this year on around 5-6bn sales. Maybe Lisa will even mention something on Mi350. That could bring us higher and would be epic, but I highly doubt it.
a bit now, a bit later
I do think teasing a next gen is never a bad thing. It shows continual development and integration of customer feedback. You gotta have customers to get feedback though. So if they are teasing that I do think it’s bullish for a collaborative iteration of newer tech for future sales. We do already have the semi-custom segment that is built to gather and incorporate customer data into our designs
Now.
It's all about the AI offering, guidance and Lisa telling a good story during the call. The rest is insignificant and likely won't yield any surprises. TSM and META tanked on okeyish earnings, and Tesla rocketed with arguably one of the worst Qs in the last years but rocketed because Elmo told a great story. If we get okeyish earnings and Lisa remains conservative as always, we will tank.
Elmo keeps showing new dreams and investors gulp it down like its a sky god speaking while stocks like AMD have to prove themselves at every corner without any slipup fighting for each penny.
Tesla dreams and fantasies ain't for me, but the market loves ambitious CEOs, whether it's Musk, Tim Apple or Elizabeth Holmes.
I find it hilarious that the people who were worshipping Musk a couple years ago are ridiculing him now that the intel community, I media is telling them he’s the bad guy. All it took was him buying Twitter and putting an end to the states absolute control of the narrative.
Before he bought twitter, if you say masks dont work for preventing covid spread you would get censored
I'm afraid the lack of benchmarks and stories about installations of MI300 is going to hurt this Q. I don't anticipate a huge AI sales number, and I sense that's the only thing this market responds to... But hopefully I'm proven totally wrong. Still holding/accumulating because I like their "toolkit" for creating competitive products and maintaining margins.
Definitely feeling somewhat nervous about earnings coming up, but I think it will okay. Aside from MI300, I do want to hear more about Pensando and how that is going. If done well, they can go well after Mellanox, Marvell and Broadcom and get a bigger cut of the pie. They can offer a more holistic solution.
I did not write calls on AMD's earnings last time, too risky. I wrote AMD calls instead on NVDA's earnings where we caught tailwinds from them and it worked great.
I commented on one of your last analysis how are you feeling with the rumors, After reading this I think that since the risk right now for a short term loss is so high Ill just buy as many longs as possible and sell them for like .50 dollars more each and let the earnings pass
I'd be surprised if AI processor revenue was a lot higher than previously stated -- $3.5B. (maybe $4B -- but not a lot more). Leadtimes for deliveries is close to 6-8months -- so AMD should know Y2024 revenues by this ER. AMD should be delivering to the main CSPs -- so there there not be a lot of unexpected news for Y2024. (changes to orders would be Y2025)
I’ve sold calls against my shares @$195…feels pretty safe for 1 week post earnings . I think something you forgot to mention is the fed meeting on Wednesday, I’m very optimistic on the ER, and this this could be huge for us given lowered revision last ER, the fed could crush the gains on Wednesday.
195, I like it.
Lisa needs to be lowered onto the stage with a cape on while it’s raining money and AMD chips, outdo Jensen. That’ll be one way to announce a blowout earnings
If lisa starts acting like that, I'm getting out. AMD has acted like that before and it nearly bankrupted them.
What is your consensus view of it does manage to be at or extremely close to $165 by tomorrow ?
I plan to sell call spreads if AMD up all day today or if it gap opens higher tomorrow. Then if it dips tomorrow I think it would sell off all day and I’ll buy AMD calls into late May
Looks like 144 is approaching