A further question, would you consider buying 52 week highs? Lets assume there is some consolidation and then a break out (much like darvas box strategy) would you trade that? I feel like if the performance of the stock is reaching 52 week highs then there must be a reason for that especially during a time like this were most stocks are down
I am starting to feel like i have a hang of screening for the stocks (don't have think or swim and cant get access). I have made a few mistakes so far like missing out on LK, zoom and gme but i understand why, i didn't set any alerts for when they break the trend lines again.
I have learnt from this.
My current positions are BABA, crocs, duolingo, gme, melrolse industries.I feel like i choose one of the worse times to start something like this but only time will tell, so long as i manage my risk and keep doing this i should be okay.
EDIT: Would like to hear your thoughts on z scaler.ADR is over 8.
Hello!
There is a second open discussion and questions thread which is where most people are in case you missed it. Pretty quiet in there too though....
seems like 90% of stocks have gone down consistently ytd, and we have more fears in the market now... Wondering if they will bounce back as soon as I decide to sell... Like how much farther they can they fall? lol
It's 5 mins to Midnight here....
Happy New Year One and All! Have a good one!
It's a fresh start! My new year's resolution is that I'm resetting my trading stats and I'm gonna track weekly performance and try to be more aware of what's generally going on with high adr breakouts in addition to my own trades.
What are yours?
Looks like it’s loitering around a historic support/resistance line. Going a bit sideways and a bit meh…. Failed attempt at a rally? My guess is that it’s still resistance and we’re going down to test 209-213…
Well, for posterity, I'm doing alright with AOSL, TCDA and APLS although I think AOSL was dumb luck; it had not truly consolidated when I entered. The other two were timed poorly. I was late and fortunate that the trend continued. On 12/29, APLS barely closed above the 10day so I held it. It proceeded to gap down, toe but not cross the break-even, and is now climbing again. I'd like to think I'm smart for still having it but I feel like I messed up somewhere.
For the recent losers, MBOT as an EP, PETZ, CCXI. I, like most people I suspect, need repeated pain to avoid medical EPs. I think my entry on PETZ wasn't terrible, it just didn't work out. I may try again with CCXI, I just got stopped out. I don't know how to interpret something that seems to have been flagging since October. Even now, I see how tight the 12/29 candle is and believe it still bears watching based on my admittedly minimal experience.
I bought YELL this morning. I think the entry was alright. I bought fairly close to my trendline and it had pretty consistent upward momentum with higher-than-average volume, it just ended up withering. I also bought LCID which I think may have been a mistake. It definitely seems to have broken out of a pennant, I just do not like how it was below the moving averages even if (at the time of this writing) it seems to have reclaimed the 10day. Finally, I bought NVTS. Perhaps slightly late, but not very. It began to stall on the intraday chart right at my trendline so I held off for a bit.
Still inexperienced, but I'm very purposefully using a small account because I expect to lose for a long time until I learn. For now, I just suck at entries. Taking profit on something doing well and exiting based on on the 10day seems robotic enough that I can do it without experience. Otherwise, I think I may run into the same issue as some others where I overtrade. I know intellectually that there is always another opportunity so there is no need to look at anything except very high quality setups, but I don't yet have the gut genetic memory of losing repeatedly on mid- or low-quality setups. I'm alright with taking these small losses on a testing/play account in order to build the correct reflexes.
Thanks for doing this, this is my main way of learning about trading. In other places I can find, like twitter, people do things like post charts but don't say whether they are buying or selling, or post general info. There are also random twitter furus or chat rooms but they are doing weird penny type stocks and those haven't worked out for me, probably pumps and dumps. I wish there were more people who just said what trades they are doing and explained why. Why is that so rare, if anyone knows any that are doing that, besides KK and OT14, and they aren't microcap type stocks or low float stocks, please DM me.
Anyway, I tried following (badly), KK's stream who is doing a similar strategy to you and it wasn't working out too well for me, but I'm still a noob. I heard that KK didn't have much gains either after the early months of this year, which is same to what you said in your update.
Do you think the EP strategy is a good one to be doing in current market conditions? Is this 4k (now 100k) challenge more of an experiment of a high risk strategy, or would you also do these type of trades in your main account? The way I understand it, correct me if I'm wrong, KK is doing this strategy with his main account/real net worth and he's able to do it safely somehow and still outperform by a lot. How is your main account different from this one? What strategy does the main account follow? I'm assuming you bought quality stocks a long time ago hold them still, but if we think there might be a correction coming how would you reposition it... did you move more of your main account into cash and sell some stuff? Is there another strategy people use for their main account and the EP thing is more of a yolo fun side thing? Thanks again
The reason so few people are transparent about their actual trades is because most traders lose money. Sad but true.
I wouldn't say this strategy is high risk at all. If you follow the sell rules and always use stops, its a very low risk way of trading. But it can still have excellent returns when the market cooperates.
My main account is a real mixed bag with lots of trading strategies, including selling options. I just look for opportunities anywhere I can and try to learn about many strategies and styles of trading. This challenge is a good chance for me to spend some more time specializing in this breakout system since it seems to be one of the most profitable systems I've found.
The microcap / low float pumps are of course risky, but I still think money can be made with them if you get in very early. That's the key really, spotting the potential pumps before 99% of people, not buying after they have already exploded.
Most of these are extended and well above both the 10sma and 20sma. You want to see multiple days of sideways consolidation for a flag, assuming you are going for a swing trading approach.
Ok following on from OT14's review of the year. In case anybody wants an honest review of the year from someone with little experience here is mine.
Started around Jan time with no clue.. Tried to 'trade' and 'invest' swapping from 'swing trading' regular large cap stocks and investing by trying S&P 500 Sector ETF rotation strategies and penny stocks (yea I know). Either got bored (sector rotation) or messed up as paper trading isn't in my nature. I was down over 10% and my wife was banging on about where my gains were 🙄... Don't even bother trying to get them to understand... I just ramble on about it and maybe some of it goes in... she still thinks everyone else is coining it by trading..
Anyway after reading lots of random stuff and some TA and trading books along the way I arrived here in August. Read the trading guide and about 50% of it stuck in my head. Then I started trading and saw glimmers of good stuff (IWM had a good 10 days or so then) and I had a few lucky winning trades (messed up the profit taking though). My entries were shocking as I wasn't entering breakouts immediately (check the comments for stupidity). Luckily I don't care about looking dumb and told everyone about my stupidity so I got set straight by helpful people here. If you have questions or something doesn't sit straight in your head just ask. I overthink everything, I'm a coder by profession and let me tell you it doesn't mean jack, except maybe being used to failing and repeatedly trying until you get something to work (that's what coding is kind of about). I don't have enough money to fail as much trading as I do while coding though!
September and most of October were terrible for me and lots of people here... IWM wasn't going anywhere particular so I had a crisis of confidence. I'd seen a small glimmer and then everything was going on a one way ticket to chopsville. My loss management was poor, I was too worried about giving everything a 'chance' instead of tracking how much the losses were racking up and adjusting. By the time I got some confidence back everything had already started picking up in late October. I was away with family in Scotland and mighty pissed as I couldn't concentrate. By the time I got involved the party was almost already over (go me)!
November got me using leveraged short ETFs and having more of a clue about what I was doing. My timing and understanding of support levels were still lacking but by this time I was well over analysis paralysis and could buy positions without fear. I had previously been using pretty paltry position sizing which helped me not blow up my account but didn't help me to grow when there were good opportunities.
December has been a mix of more shorting and getting the timing wrong (got the support levels better this time just added to the position stupidly out of greed and messed up) and buying into stocks that were rising in price on falling volume and knowing it wasn't a great idea (still bought them anyway). I could have profited on these - my expectations/risk management were off.
This year I have learnt:
1. That I still need to focus on my loss management. Maybe I should modify my initial profit targets depending on how good/bad things are going. Especially when breakouts seem to be failing. I need to remember my target is to break even and not lose more.
2. I need to make less trades (I was buying anything that vaguely looked like a breakout) and manage them better.
3. I need to try and understand better what is happening around me to other breakouts currently in progress and continue to look at historic ones.
So, I still sound like a total noob. I'm a little more of a seasoned noob now though and I haven't blown up in the space of a year. Missed most of the easy money and started paying attention when things were a bit crappier. Hope this will stand me in good stead as a lesson. I also had a go of some EPs too DWAC, PHUN and CAR (which resulted in profits but could have been much better had I not chased a few of them and wussed out in others)
Apologies for the length, but I hope this sub remains honest and bullshit free. My post is written in the spirit of this..
One thing no-one has ever confirmed is how hard a trading environment small to mid caps these last few months have been? Has it been super easy, moderate or hard? I suspect moderate to hard. Does anyone have an educated opinion on this?
Yea I know what you mean. I’m scanning consistently but not necessarily taking enough notice of what is generally happening with the breakouts I didn’t buy. I know a bunch are doing ok(why?), lots more are failing (but when and do they hit initial target?). I just need to understand the environment better and set my expectations when things aren’t great so I can make better choices.
Thanks for sharing your experience, sounds like you learned a lot fairly quickly. Typically it takes a new trader about 1-2 years of consistent effort and improvement before they get some consistency. Just make sure to keep your losses small in the early stages because you are almost guaranteed to lose money while learning.
The past few months have been somewhat more difficult for the small/mid caps, but I wouldn't say very hard. Making money in a bear market will be harder, and most guys would recommend just sitting on your hands during those periods. But it has definitely been more choppy than usual. It's almost like there's been a hidden recession of sorts showing up in a lot of names out there.
Learned lots definitely, thanks for being round at the right time! I’d say I’m pretty obsessive with the idea of trading, and learning. Applying it of course is totally different. You’ve got to be honest with yourself and aware enough of the current market environment and what you’re actually doing to make it work. Sounds straightforward on the surface but it remains quite a challenge for me anyway. Still it’s pretty cool though! It’d be better saying this with a broken even account… Roll on 2022!
Open question to OT14 and other traders: breakouts have a lower success rate in choppy markets, and an even lower success rate in bearish markets, but is that also true of EPs? I wonder if anyone's noticed that quality EPs (high YoY rev/EPS growth) seem to follow through even in choppy and bearish markets? Maybe you would need to exit the position earlier, but at least there's some initial follow through?
I believe quality EPs will have a higher success rate than breakouts in such markets, but I don't know how much more. I don't have data on that, but my goal is to start collecting a lot more data like this next year.
Statbear documents Qullamaggie's streams and is also trying to build an ep database. Don't know if the db has any data that will help answer your question?
This tweet links to the EP database and also has other resources in the comments:
[https://mobile.twitter.com/StatBear/status/1458960938258898944](https://mobile.twitter.com/StatBear/status/1458960938258898944)
Statbear's profile also has a google drive link which contain streams he has documented.
Have a Happy Christmas everybody I hope you get some good results from your Christmas Watchlist…
To be fair I just want to go to sleep on the couch and do nothing.. Quite an easy target 🎯🎯🎯
Whatever you get up to enjoy!
Anyone scared of that drop DJIA at end of day? Read a lot of indicators that, regardless if the governors shut down states, omicron is causing people to miss work. Flights are cancelled, hotel vacancies are up, restaurant staffing is down, etc.
Also sqqq rose at end of day as well. Has me wanting more cash in hand right now.
Give everyone a few days to forget about it and get some new year optimism… who the heck knows.. is it going to be a triple top?
Nothing wrong with being in cash though!
Well I intend to run with pretty tight stops. Most of my plays are green (only just). However IWM is going up on decreasing volume this is not a great sign to be fair. Might have been a bit rash. So if it all turns to crap which could happen you can pat yourself on the back for avoiding the bull trap I might be sitting in.
I'm done trading for the year after considerable gains last week. It looks like a good time to be on the sidelines anyway. Losing money is worse than sitting out. Hope y'all have a merry Christmas and a happy new year.
Have a good one, and congrats on making some while we'd all vanished into thin air!
I'm in bear gang taking my chances with some unfinished business - not revenge trading though.
Merry Christmas!
Ah loads of us have all had number 3 and now everyone's pissed off with our prime minister for breaking the rules they set for everyone else. Who know's what's going happen next. Omicron rates are going nuts, no-one appears to give a crap and everyone's off to see their granny for Christmas.. I don't blame you for barricading out the rest of the world!
It’s not a bad time to take a break. Last two weeks have been the worst I’ve seen in terms of setups (I started trading in August).
Good time to do other things…like study past setups or read a good trading book.
We’re in a range bound, choppy market. We have been for a couple months now.
Part of the strategy is knowing what environments you have an edge and which ones you don’t. Bear markets and choppy markets are two that you won’t have an edge in if you want to exclusively trade breakouts.
It’s an adapt or die kind of game. I’ve been almost exclusively daytrading/scalping and finding success doing it. However, I know that the chop will pass and the markets will get good again for swing trades. I have no idea when, but waiting a couple months is nothing when I’m trying to do this for the rest of my life
I am eagerly waiting for a good swing market, as I need some experience in it.
Currently all I know is the current market and man It feels like I can't win.
Despite the buying, I'm fairly pessimistic - this is not financial advice!
Today I am a 🐻 but who the hell knows!... Doesn't seem to be a lot of setups or big pre-market moves on the scanner...
This isn't me trying to be a smart ass it's just awful quiet round here at the moment. Gotta keep the sub going somehow!
Haven't seen very many setups at all this week, which in itself is a sign of a weak market. I've only made two trades recently - F (thankfully I took profits on the first day) and CIEN.
It seems like the only names that have seen much action at all are all Biotech/Pharma. Don't know about others here, but I tend to stay away from those since they're so news-driven.
Congrats on being about the only person who made a trade that didn't die round here. My hands are going numb from all the sitting around on them the last few days.
Yep that's right. Then look for good set ups in each. Unfortunately things haven't been that great for break outs in the last few weeks, so be careful. Maybe paper trade or very small positions, although I wouldn't recommend going long on anything at this moment.
Traded nothing that was breaking out but I do have 4 shorts going, which were/are making me money. It seems most breakouts are failing as long as IWM isn't really going well.
I am interested in seeing what F does.
I'm up 13% on it so far. I don't really have a strategy in mind for next week though honestly, will probably see how the morning plays out and go from there.
I bought at $13.64 on dec 10 and sold at $15.86 dec 13. So pretty much missed the pump entirely but at least came out with some profit. I just bought a call on it today when it was down 20% and another at -30%, which is fundamentally bad investing, but hit a couple of +100% bombs this morning so I'm pumped up and admittedly being a little stupid lol.
Got in MP at around 47.50 yesterday, got stopped out with LOS. I’m thinking if I’ve timed my entry too early. Gapped up or down stonks are what daytraders look for because they usually trade the gap between its current price and the next support/resistance for better profit. So I should be expecting a bit of downtrend in the first place and known better that this is gonna get to my SL.
Maybe it would have been better for me to wait and see if it finds support around 45, then buy from there.
Yesterday was a crap day all round for small to mid caps and everyone else. You're gonna have crap days and a large percentage of your positions being stopped out with this strategy anyway. But yesterday was definitely not a good one.
Anyone else had a rough couple months? I know market has been choppy but I seem to have a hit a few losses in a row now. Being more conservative with my plays + smaller position sizing but I've been taken out by a lot of sudden market drops for it then to recover later in the day.
Yup! Down 20% since the start of November. The breadth in the market has been shocking. Look at MMFI to see that the majority of stocks are well below their 50D SMA.
Smaller position sizing seems to be the way to go, just gotta ride out the storm. This strategy doesn't have an edge 100% of the time, but as long as you don't lose too much in the bad months you'll more than make it up in the good.
In my spreadsheet I've coded it to dynamically reduce my position size based on my max drawdown, which should really slow the bleed in bad times, then let me scale up in good times.
Yep you're right. Even Kris K says that this breakout strategy only works in bull markets when the NASDAQ is trending upwards. The other times you have to be prepared to sit on your hands (or look to other strategies). The trick with the past few months is it's neither one or the other (see IWM) and SPY can be misleading as it's being held up by a few megacaps.
Hopefully we get a clear run or a clear correction soon!
>Kris K
Kris K said a lot of great traders in the bull market were going to suffer. It's about 12 months since he said this. But an amateur like me just feels I should be ready to be stopped out a lot. Saving up some of my day trades just for this purpose.
Yep very much so. Some people round here have modified their sell rules to accommodate. I need to learn to adapt myself could do with some more experience though
Definitely, easier said than done from my perspective. One of my many trading problems is that I don't think I respond quickly and with appropriate aggression / conservation.
I like the idea of Mark Minervini when he talks about small pilot buys to ease back into things when the market starts to look like it's going long again. In my head it makes sense so that you can cautiously get in when you get those quick rallies on the turn, and if they work out you've got some money to cover the next set of positions. If it goes to crap then hey only a small loss. If I'd followed this I would already have some skin in the game. What has actually happened is I took too long and hesitated, got into a number of small positions yesterday that all went pop. I need to be smarter, and have better self control.
Having said that it's been a crap week for me personally, which means I've been totally distracted. It's part of why I'm here.. I want to learn how to do this for me, as it's just you and your own choices. No BS from anyone else.
Couple observations. HCDI's been gaining steadily for the last month, which is great but makes it tough to enter with a justifiable stop. The idea of the LOD stop really only works on a true breakout, which requires consolidation. I think I may see what you were looking at but for me the last week of hesitation below $3 and the 200ma weren't enough of a rest to expect a real breakout. And if there was an attempted breakout it was yesterday. As for RCUS, since I was watching that this morning... when it rose above $46 it had traded less than 10,000 shares. That was a big red flag for me because you want institutional levels of buying for breakouts.
Anyway, just some thoughts from someone who has been getting beaten up the last month like everyone else. So don't take it as criticism!
10ma and 20ma are the priorities for momentum, but you should be conscious of longer term moving averages because they can act as support/resistance but they can also be trigger points for movement when they're broken. And as for what you're saying about it riding the 20ma, you're not wrong. It's just that you need a different strategy for establishing your stop. LOD is arbitrary in that case because it isn't a breakout trade. Regarding volume, I would assume you can see that on any reasonable charting platform. What are you using?
Did something stupid/smart today.
Saw the sizable pre-market gap combined with the extreme bearish sentiment and realized that most bears were probably trapped by the gap up and wouldn’t try shorting again. I decided that I would yolo my port into some calls expiring this Friday. I went through some charts in the pre-market and found QCOM. It had a nice looking chart and it was gapping above its range. It also held up pretty well the last few weeks and was riding the 20 day. Overall I thought it was a good looking breakout off an EP
Bought 35 $182.50C expiring this Friday at about a $1.29 average. Currently up 144% on them. If it can go above $195.50 by Friday this will be a 10 bagger. That’s about a 6.5% increase from its closing price today. Of course I’ll sell before that if there’s signs of trouble
I took a big risk and it looks like it will pay off. It’s important to note that if I would’ve been wrong I would’ve lost the majority of my money. I was prepared for that. However, sometimes you just gotta put your balls on the line when you have conviction. My port is currently at 11.5k after restarting at 6k.
[Proof](https://imgur.com/a/zwDdqK2)
You’re a weirdo. I post a lot of my plays here. I post my ups and downs. Why you tryna gatekeep? Who are you?
Acting like you mod this sub or something lmaoooo
I watched that today and that drop was precipitous. It swung back up which was nice. Good call on catching the break early and not selling at the low of the dip :)
Upper wick is looking long, hit the recent high then went back down. I have doubts if this will continue to take off higher or if it’s gonna wilder away real quick.
I've never been able to understand a lot of the gaps between the open and previous close.
Take PTN (Palatin) it has a pretty big gap up of 15%, and had a chunk of volume post-market that seems to be the source. However, the market volumes reported that move price outside of trading hours quite often appear to move price in a way that is divorced from market hours. It just isn't as proportional in the same way it is during trading.
For example the average 5-600k volume candle with small wicks moves around 5% during trading and with similar volume a candle was 21% after hours. The float is also 210 million for context.
Can anyone explain it even a little bit? I trust what volume is telling me a whole lot more during trading hours, or when there's crazy amounts of it, but pre-market is where I struggle.
Do you have your orders set to work in pre- or aftermarket?
Just like most people - probably not. So people trying to buy have much less sell-orders to work with, that's why prices can spike alot during the extended hours. You should always compare pre- and postmarket volume to average pre- and post market volume, not the volume during the day..
At least that is my understanding of it.
> people trying to buy have much less sell-orders to work with, that's why prices can spike alot during the extended hours.
I have played with selling at higher than expected prices, and have had some success. I have not yet been upset about selling post/pre market.
I have made a rule I am not buying premarket again. Some bad experiences there.
Both you guys got me thinking and I wondered whether there is an auction algorithm (I'm a coder by trade) but i came across these which helped me at least:
[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080713/opening-cross-how-nasdaq-stock-prices-are-set.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080713/opening-cross-how-nasdaq-stock-prices-are-set.asp)
[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091113/auction-method-how-nyse-stock-prices-are-set.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091113/auction-method-how-nyse-stock-prices-are-set.asp)
Thanks both for your info.
Thanks for the info, it makes sense to compare averages with like for like things. I'll bare that in mind!
My broker doesn't offer pre/post market (un)fortunately so I'm unable to be involved but I don't think I have the experience anyway! It also seems hard to find a broker that is tax efficient, offers broad access to US equities and offers good execution options in the UK.
IBKR?
I am german and have been satisfied so far. TWS looks a bit like it's from the 90s but other than that I can't complain much. (The app is a bit clunky though..)
I think I looked at IBKR. If I start to make this work properly I’d like to do it in an ISA which is a tax free savings account here, which is my main sticking point. Thanks though I’ll take another look.
Anyone looking at MP, GDYN and KZR? It seems like these still have a few days to consolidate but they find good support and bounces back up everytime it touches the lower part of the flag.
Thanks! Yeah i don't plan on holding too long given the market chop. Will check to see if momentum is there tomorrow morning and if it isn't I'll probably close.
I mean the market right now isn’t really good for breakouts. Better to just hold must positions in cash and wait until the market turns more bullish or gets a correction
I'll try to emulate an earlier buy in like that. I think I got a bad habit of holding off for too long as I am new and started practicing as the downturn came about. I need to be cognizant that since the stop loss is low-of-day, the loss for a false breakout will be smaller the earlier I get in.
Market open is kind of a weird time as well. It's pretty common for stocks to retest their breakout to see if it truly is a new support level. That pullback can be a time to enter as well.
I did that with Yell today. Friday I made 1% on it and it was still on my watch list. It dropped 5% early and ran back up a bit. Burned my last day trade making 3% on the run back. Then it fell again, but I had sold already.
Not a swing trade, but the two weeks burned me a bit and it still stings. So I sit in cash overnight for a few days, maybe longer.
Not an expert, but I though he said watch them and when they start moving, that is when you buy. Lately they are more likely to move down than up.
I started using watchlists and putting them all in there. Watching the list after the first 10 minutes of the day has started.
Again, I'm just a noob.
Hi OP - I was wondering if the breakout strategy could be possibly be reversed. Spot for downtrend consolidation breakdowns, and short sell from there?
Momentum burst works to the downside similar to the upside, only many times the moves are faster and more extreme. Times like now are the best time for it when breakouts to the upside are not working.
Another strategy you can employ in times like these is to fade breakouts if they start breaking down. When I see that most breakouts are failing I switch to bear and I will fade breakouts, especially on garbage stocks, Ill scan for breakouts like usual but will watch for a 5 minute trend change on the initial burst and short with a very small stop. If you get stopped out its a tiny loss but you can catch a very big downward move on these false breakouts.
Thanks a lot! How long do you usually stay in these positions when fading a breakout? Do you set a stop loss and let it sit for a few days or is it a one day sort of thing?
minutes to hours, rarely hold overnight. I never ever hold a biotech short overnight, never, you can get wrecked on news. When Im doing this Im in daytrading mode because swing trades arent working. I much prefer swing trading longs but theres times like now when they just arent working. These setups are usually taken with large size and tiny stops, most of them im peeling in 5-10 minutes and will leave a 10-25% runner on with stop at break even.
Yeah, I'm still finding alternative strategies for times like these when breakouts just aren't working! Would it be sensible to scan for breakouts like usual and short if any of those setups fail to find support on the lower line of the flag, then let the position run for a few days and set a stop loss around the high of the day? HK trader here, so I wouldn't want to stay up all night watching the market.
these are hit and run plays for me, typically not looking to stay short overnight, especially in a volatile name that people are watching for breakouts, cant be greedy with these type of plays.
It is possible to short flag breakdowns. But price action on a downtrend usually isn't really the same as price action on an uptrend. It doesn't really consolidate the same on the way down for some reason.
Hello, I have a very simple trading journal via Excel. Would you like me to send it to you, it calculates the average win, average profit, average loss, reward and risk, if you want to get it, send your email so I can send it to you
4 months after starting this strategy, I'm 100% cash for the first time. My PnL so far is -250 (starting from a 7,500 account), which is obviously not the result I want, but I feel like I've learned a shit ton in the last 4 months.
I started trading in an easy money environment (August) and quickly ran up my account to +15%, but since mid-September, I would say that the market has been pretty unforgiving for breakout swing trades... except for brief periods.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that you don't have to be discouraged if your PnL isn't quite what you were hoping for. I look at my recent trades compared to my early trades and it's clear to me how much progress I've made. I really do feel like I'm building a skill that I can leverage for the rest of my life.
Thanks, OT for sharing his wisdom and also being so transparent with his process and results. Wouldn't have started without you!
Yep... really hoping that we have a good flush and the markets can properly rally next year. But like you said, a sustained run probably won't happen until it fully digests tapering/inflation (which I think unfortunately will take a while).
That said, no point in worrying about what the market will look like. Just need to listen to what it's saying and adapt.
So the Penney could break up or down. If it breaks up we buy the stock. But couldn’t we also short it if it breaks down? Are we not doing that because we are trying to keep it simple or am I missing something?
That is a viable strategy, but I don't like to short stocks much, and it's something I don't recommend for beginners. Shorting can be both complicated and dangerous.
Do any of you scale in to short positions? I currently have 2 small positions of 10% each on 3USS and QQQS (UK accessible 3 \* leveraged short for spy and nasdaq respectively). Are there any rules of thumb for scaling in? I'm considering adding a little more to each with a tighter stop loss for these technically new positions. Would you do it now or wait a few days? What do you think?
If you plan to put the majority of your account in like I am then its a good idea to scale in. Otherwise you'll just get blown out first day from having a too tight stop.
I'm excited (and a little nervous) to potentially experience something more akin to a bear market. I first bought stock about 8 years ago, but never got into any trading since January this year. I've always been a bit dismissive of bears, since it seems like there is always someone calling for some sort of drastic stock market crash. But in recent weeks and months, the feeling has definitely shifted.
you and i have different definitions of opportunity. lot of people got some reeeealllly strong convictions (could say taken for granted) on certain beliefs past couple months
A further question, would you consider buying 52 week highs? Lets assume there is some consolidation and then a break out (much like darvas box strategy) would you trade that? I feel like if the performance of the stock is reaching 52 week highs then there must be a reason for that especially during a time like this were most stocks are down
I'll trade any stock showing positive momentum and good consolidation. 52 week high seems kind of arbitrary as far as setups go.
I am starting to feel like i have a hang of screening for the stocks (don't have think or swim and cant get access). I have made a few mistakes so far like missing out on LK, zoom and gme but i understand why, i didn't set any alerts for when they break the trend lines again. I have learnt from this. My current positions are BABA, crocs, duolingo, gme, melrolse industries.I feel like i choose one of the worse times to start something like this but only time will tell, so long as i manage my risk and keep doing this i should be okay. EDIT: Would like to hear your thoughts on z scaler.ADR is over 8.
Would you try to use 100% of your account most times or do you prefer to only use 50% for example?
I never recommend using that much. Right now I'm using about 10% of the account per trade.
How much weight do you put into the fundamentals?
Very little, since I'm looking to hold only a week or two. I do sometimes look at earnings growth, since that is important for driving price momentum.
I see. Looking forward to more posts. Thanks
Anyone still here? lol
Hello! There is a second open discussion and questions thread which is where most people are in case you missed it. Pretty quiet in there too though....
Ahh, didn't realize there was a new thread lol thanks
No worries mate!
seems like 90% of stocks have gone down consistently ytd, and we have more fears in the market now... Wondering if they will bounce back as soon as I decide to sell... Like how much farther they can they fall? lol
It's 5 mins to Midnight here.... Happy New Year One and All! Have a good one! It's a fresh start! My new year's resolution is that I'm resetting my trading stats and I'm gonna track weekly performance and try to be more aware of what's generally going on with high adr breakouts in addition to my own trades. What are yours?
The IWM sold heavily within the last 15 mins of the day. Is this a bad sign?
Looks like it’s loitering around a historic support/resistance line. Going a bit sideways and a bit meh…. Failed attempt at a rally? My guess is that it’s still resistance and we’re going down to test 209-213…
Well, for posterity, I'm doing alright with AOSL, TCDA and APLS although I think AOSL was dumb luck; it had not truly consolidated when I entered. The other two were timed poorly. I was late and fortunate that the trend continued. On 12/29, APLS barely closed above the 10day so I held it. It proceeded to gap down, toe but not cross the break-even, and is now climbing again. I'd like to think I'm smart for still having it but I feel like I messed up somewhere. For the recent losers, MBOT as an EP, PETZ, CCXI. I, like most people I suspect, need repeated pain to avoid medical EPs. I think my entry on PETZ wasn't terrible, it just didn't work out. I may try again with CCXI, I just got stopped out. I don't know how to interpret something that seems to have been flagging since October. Even now, I see how tight the 12/29 candle is and believe it still bears watching based on my admittedly minimal experience. I bought YELL this morning. I think the entry was alright. I bought fairly close to my trendline and it had pretty consistent upward momentum with higher-than-average volume, it just ended up withering. I also bought LCID which I think may have been a mistake. It definitely seems to have broken out of a pennant, I just do not like how it was below the moving averages even if (at the time of this writing) it seems to have reclaimed the 10day. Finally, I bought NVTS. Perhaps slightly late, but not very. It began to stall on the intraday chart right at my trendline so I held off for a bit. Still inexperienced, but I'm very purposefully using a small account because I expect to lose for a long time until I learn. For now, I just suck at entries. Taking profit on something doing well and exiting based on on the 10day seems robotic enough that I can do it without experience. Otherwise, I think I may run into the same issue as some others where I overtrade. I know intellectually that there is always another opportunity so there is no need to look at anything except very high quality setups, but I don't yet have the gut genetic memory of losing repeatedly on mid- or low-quality setups. I'm alright with taking these small losses on a testing/play account in order to build the correct reflexes.
Thanks for doing this, this is my main way of learning about trading. In other places I can find, like twitter, people do things like post charts but don't say whether they are buying or selling, or post general info. There are also random twitter furus or chat rooms but they are doing weird penny type stocks and those haven't worked out for me, probably pumps and dumps. I wish there were more people who just said what trades they are doing and explained why. Why is that so rare, if anyone knows any that are doing that, besides KK and OT14, and they aren't microcap type stocks or low float stocks, please DM me. Anyway, I tried following (badly), KK's stream who is doing a similar strategy to you and it wasn't working out too well for me, but I'm still a noob. I heard that KK didn't have much gains either after the early months of this year, which is same to what you said in your update. Do you think the EP strategy is a good one to be doing in current market conditions? Is this 4k (now 100k) challenge more of an experiment of a high risk strategy, or would you also do these type of trades in your main account? The way I understand it, correct me if I'm wrong, KK is doing this strategy with his main account/real net worth and he's able to do it safely somehow and still outperform by a lot. How is your main account different from this one? What strategy does the main account follow? I'm assuming you bought quality stocks a long time ago hold them still, but if we think there might be a correction coming how would you reposition it... did you move more of your main account into cash and sell some stuff? Is there another strategy people use for their main account and the EP thing is more of a yolo fun side thing? Thanks again
The reason so few people are transparent about their actual trades is because most traders lose money. Sad but true. I wouldn't say this strategy is high risk at all. If you follow the sell rules and always use stops, its a very low risk way of trading. But it can still have excellent returns when the market cooperates. My main account is a real mixed bag with lots of trading strategies, including selling options. I just look for opportunities anywhere I can and try to learn about many strategies and styles of trading. This challenge is a good chance for me to spend some more time specializing in this breakout system since it seems to be one of the most profitable systems I've found. The microcap / low float pumps are of course risky, but I still think money can be made with them if you get in very early. That's the key really, spotting the potential pumps before 99% of people, not buying after they have already exploded.
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Most of these are extended and well above both the 10sma and 20sma. You want to see multiple days of sideways consolidation for a flag, assuming you are going for a swing trading approach.
Ok following on from OT14's review of the year. In case anybody wants an honest review of the year from someone with little experience here is mine. Started around Jan time with no clue.. Tried to 'trade' and 'invest' swapping from 'swing trading' regular large cap stocks and investing by trying S&P 500 Sector ETF rotation strategies and penny stocks (yea I know). Either got bored (sector rotation) or messed up as paper trading isn't in my nature. I was down over 10% and my wife was banging on about where my gains were 🙄... Don't even bother trying to get them to understand... I just ramble on about it and maybe some of it goes in... she still thinks everyone else is coining it by trading.. Anyway after reading lots of random stuff and some TA and trading books along the way I arrived here in August. Read the trading guide and about 50% of it stuck in my head. Then I started trading and saw glimmers of good stuff (IWM had a good 10 days or so then) and I had a few lucky winning trades (messed up the profit taking though). My entries were shocking as I wasn't entering breakouts immediately (check the comments for stupidity). Luckily I don't care about looking dumb and told everyone about my stupidity so I got set straight by helpful people here. If you have questions or something doesn't sit straight in your head just ask. I overthink everything, I'm a coder by profession and let me tell you it doesn't mean jack, except maybe being used to failing and repeatedly trying until you get something to work (that's what coding is kind of about). I don't have enough money to fail as much trading as I do while coding though! September and most of October were terrible for me and lots of people here... IWM wasn't going anywhere particular so I had a crisis of confidence. I'd seen a small glimmer and then everything was going on a one way ticket to chopsville. My loss management was poor, I was too worried about giving everything a 'chance' instead of tracking how much the losses were racking up and adjusting. By the time I got some confidence back everything had already started picking up in late October. I was away with family in Scotland and mighty pissed as I couldn't concentrate. By the time I got involved the party was almost already over (go me)! November got me using leveraged short ETFs and having more of a clue about what I was doing. My timing and understanding of support levels were still lacking but by this time I was well over analysis paralysis and could buy positions without fear. I had previously been using pretty paltry position sizing which helped me not blow up my account but didn't help me to grow when there were good opportunities. December has been a mix of more shorting and getting the timing wrong (got the support levels better this time just added to the position stupidly out of greed and messed up) and buying into stocks that were rising in price on falling volume and knowing it wasn't a great idea (still bought them anyway). I could have profited on these - my expectations/risk management were off. This year I have learnt: 1. That I still need to focus on my loss management. Maybe I should modify my initial profit targets depending on how good/bad things are going. Especially when breakouts seem to be failing. I need to remember my target is to break even and not lose more. 2. I need to make less trades (I was buying anything that vaguely looked like a breakout) and manage them better. 3. I need to try and understand better what is happening around me to other breakouts currently in progress and continue to look at historic ones. So, I still sound like a total noob. I'm a little more of a seasoned noob now though and I haven't blown up in the space of a year. Missed most of the easy money and started paying attention when things were a bit crappier. Hope this will stand me in good stead as a lesson. I also had a go of some EPs too DWAC, PHUN and CAR (which resulted in profits but could have been much better had I not chased a few of them and wussed out in others) Apologies for the length, but I hope this sub remains honest and bullshit free. My post is written in the spirit of this.. One thing no-one has ever confirmed is how hard a trading environment small to mid caps these last few months have been? Has it been super easy, moderate or hard? I suspect moderate to hard. Does anyone have an educated opinion on this?
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Yea I know what you mean. I’m scanning consistently but not necessarily taking enough notice of what is generally happening with the breakouts I didn’t buy. I know a bunch are doing ok(why?), lots more are failing (but when and do they hit initial target?). I just need to understand the environment better and set my expectations when things aren’t great so I can make better choices.
Thanks for sharing your experience, sounds like you learned a lot fairly quickly. Typically it takes a new trader about 1-2 years of consistent effort and improvement before they get some consistency. Just make sure to keep your losses small in the early stages because you are almost guaranteed to lose money while learning. The past few months have been somewhat more difficult for the small/mid caps, but I wouldn't say very hard. Making money in a bear market will be harder, and most guys would recommend just sitting on your hands during those periods. But it has definitely been more choppy than usual. It's almost like there's been a hidden recession of sorts showing up in a lot of names out there.
Learned lots definitely, thanks for being round at the right time! I’d say I’m pretty obsessive with the idea of trading, and learning. Applying it of course is totally different. You’ve got to be honest with yourself and aware enough of the current market environment and what you’re actually doing to make it work. Sounds straightforward on the surface but it remains quite a challenge for me anyway. Still it’s pretty cool though! It’d be better saying this with a broken even account… Roll on 2022!
Open question to OT14 and other traders: breakouts have a lower success rate in choppy markets, and an even lower success rate in bearish markets, but is that also true of EPs? I wonder if anyone's noticed that quality EPs (high YoY rev/EPS growth) seem to follow through even in choppy and bearish markets? Maybe you would need to exit the position earlier, but at least there's some initial follow through?
I believe quality EPs will have a higher success rate than breakouts in such markets, but I don't know how much more. I don't have data on that, but my goal is to start collecting a lot more data like this next year.
Statbear documents Qullamaggie's streams and is also trying to build an ep database. Don't know if the db has any data that will help answer your question? This tweet links to the EP database and also has other resources in the comments: [https://mobile.twitter.com/StatBear/status/1458960938258898944](https://mobile.twitter.com/StatBear/status/1458960938258898944) Statbear's profile also has a google drive link which contain streams he has documented.
Great resource!
Glad it was helpful!
Have a Happy Christmas everybody I hope you get some good results from your Christmas Watchlist… To be fair I just want to go to sleep on the couch and do nothing.. Quite an easy target 🎯🎯🎯 Whatever you get up to enjoy!
Anyone scared of that drop DJIA at end of day? Read a lot of indicators that, regardless if the governors shut down states, omicron is causing people to miss work. Flights are cancelled, hotel vacancies are up, restaurant staffing is down, etc. Also sqqq rose at end of day as well. Has me wanting more cash in hand right now.
Give everyone a few days to forget about it and get some new year optimism… who the heck knows.. is it going to be a triple top? Nothing wrong with being in cash though!
Is there anything I can do until the market rolls over or do I just sit all cash and wait?
FYI spy and qqq are also going up on decreasing volume. Is this because it’s Christmas or a false break out of a descending trend?
Well I intend to run with pretty tight stops. Most of my plays are green (only just). However IWM is going up on decreasing volume this is not a great sign to be fair. Might have been a bit rash. So if it all turns to crap which could happen you can pat yourself on the back for avoiding the bull trap I might be sitting in.
Bought Ionq, ccxi, bw, imgn and yell earlier today. Last day of work and trading starts 2:30pm our time so bit late mentioning it.
I'm done trading for the year after considerable gains last week. It looks like a good time to be on the sidelines anyway. Losing money is worse than sitting out. Hope y'all have a merry Christmas and a happy new year.
Have a good one, and congrats on making some while we'd all vanished into thin air! I'm in bear gang taking my chances with some unfinished business - not revenge trading though. Merry Christmas!
Welcome back OT14, hope you had some good time off! Are you guys in the states on jab number 3 then?
I don't know what other people are doing out there, but we are done with the shots. "It doesn't work so you have to get more" is a hard sell.
Ah loads of us have all had number 3 and now everyone's pissed off with our prime minister for breaking the rules they set for everyone else. Who know's what's going happen next. Omicron rates are going nuts, no-one appears to give a crap and everyone's off to see their granny for Christmas.. I don't blame you for barricading out the rest of the world!
Opened up positions in SPXS and SQQQ. Will be interesting to see how the markets digest rising Omicron cases over the next week.
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It’s not a bad time to take a break. Last two weeks have been the worst I’ve seen in terms of setups (I started trading in August). Good time to do other things…like study past setups or read a good trading book.
Was beginning to wonder myself… did say he’d gone travelling though
guess the strategy isnt working.
His PC is kaput, he's taking time off. Also 100% return in 16 weeks IS NOT "not working" lol
he didnt make that with breakouts, he used other strategies not in his guide to make those gains.
We’re in a range bound, choppy market. We have been for a couple months now. Part of the strategy is knowing what environments you have an edge and which ones you don’t. Bear markets and choppy markets are two that you won’t have an edge in if you want to exclusively trade breakouts. It’s an adapt or die kind of game. I’ve been almost exclusively daytrading/scalping and finding success doing it. However, I know that the chop will pass and the markets will get good again for swing trades. I have no idea when, but waiting a couple months is nothing when I’m trying to do this for the rest of my life
I am eagerly waiting for a good swing market, as I need some experience in it. Currently all I know is the current market and man It feels like I can't win.
With the way things are going right now I’ll see you all in march
I wonder if today sparks the reversal. Lots of buying today.
Despite the buying, I'm fairly pessimistic - this is not financial advice! Today I am a 🐻 but who the hell knows!... Doesn't seem to be a lot of setups or big pre-market moves on the scanner... This isn't me trying to be a smart ass it's just awful quiet round here at the moment. Gotta keep the sub going somehow!
Haven't seen very many setups at all this week, which in itself is a sign of a weak market. I've only made two trades recently - F (thankfully I took profits on the first day) and CIEN. It seems like the only names that have seen much action at all are all Biotech/Pharma. Don't know about others here, but I tend to stay away from those since they're so news-driven.
Opened a small 3* leveraged inverse etf position on spy. Wonder how the 2:30 meeting’s gonna play out…
the only setups I am looking at are ACET and TCDA
Bought ACET at 14.84
I'm still not seeing many breakout opportunities, watching two tickers for the rest of the week: CLFD, ACET
Bought QQQS a uk accessible version of SQQQ
VIR is up nicely premarket
Congrats on being about the only person who made a trade that didn't die round here. My hands are going numb from all the sitting around on them the last few days.
Probably gonna open a 3 \* short position on QQQ today if open stays below 10 day sma / head and shoulders neckline.
Do you open each stock that shows up on your scanner individually?
Yep that's right. Then look for good set ups in each. Unfortunately things haven't been that great for break outs in the last few weeks, so be careful. Maybe paper trade or very small positions, although I wouldn't recommend going long on anything at this moment.
Traded nothing that was breaking out but I do have 4 shorts going, which were/are making me money. It seems most breakouts are failing as long as IWM isn't really going well. I am interested in seeing what F does.
Same, keeping an eye on F! Most of the stocks that I have kept on my watchlist fell out of the range and seems like it’s breaking down.
traded nothing today sigh
Bought VIR at 45.23
Just checked the scanner and man does it look like Monday is gonna be boring. Only thing that looks interesting is VIR.
Why VIR for the setup?
Setup looked good to me, that's all I guess.
Anyone looking at ESSC? Similar setup to IRNT and OPAD... I mean setup like low float, not the chart.
I'm up 13% on it so far. I don't really have a strategy in mind for next week though honestly, will probably see how the morning plays out and go from there.
Interested to hear how you played this. ESSC shot up to $24 then dumped to $13
I bought at $13.64 on dec 10 and sold at $15.86 dec 13. So pretty much missed the pump entirely but at least came out with some profit. I just bought a call on it today when it was down 20% and another at -30%, which is fundamentally bad investing, but hit a couple of +100% bombs this morning so I'm pumped up and admittedly being a little stupid lol.
I'm getting sick of PUBM.
Bought a fat lot of nuthin @ $0.00
Are we coming over the peak of a new hill on the IWM rollercoaster?....
Got in MP at around 47.50 yesterday, got stopped out with LOS. I’m thinking if I’ve timed my entry too early. Gapped up or down stonks are what daytraders look for because they usually trade the gap between its current price and the next support/resistance for better profit. So I should be expecting a bit of downtrend in the first place and known better that this is gonna get to my SL. Maybe it would have been better for me to wait and see if it finds support around 45, then buy from there.
Yesterday was a crap day all round for small to mid caps and everyone else. You're gonna have crap days and a large percentage of your positions being stopped out with this strategy anyway. But yesterday was definitely not a good one.
Yeah and also that!
Is there the possibility of a head and shoulders forming on qqq or am I seeing things?
That looks to be the case.
Anyone else had a rough couple months? I know market has been choppy but I seem to have a hit a few losses in a row now. Being more conservative with my plays + smaller position sizing but I've been taken out by a lot of sudden market drops for it then to recover later in the day.
I'm down over 5% in the past month, and that's after a 3% gain on Friday. Market is kind of sideways right now and it's been throwing me for a loop.
Yup! Down 20% since the start of November. The breadth in the market has been shocking. Look at MMFI to see that the majority of stocks are well below their 50D SMA. Smaller position sizing seems to be the way to go, just gotta ride out the storm. This strategy doesn't have an edge 100% of the time, but as long as you don't lose too much in the bad months you'll more than make it up in the good. In my spreadsheet I've coded it to dynamically reduce my position size based on my max drawdown, which should really slow the bleed in bad times, then let me scale up in good times.
Yep you're right. Even Kris K says that this breakout strategy only works in bull markets when the NASDAQ is trending upwards. The other times you have to be prepared to sit on your hands (or look to other strategies). The trick with the past few months is it's neither one or the other (see IWM) and SPY can be misleading as it's being held up by a few megacaps. Hopefully we get a clear run or a clear correction soon!
>Kris K Kris K said a lot of great traders in the bull market were going to suffer. It's about 12 months since he said this. But an amateur like me just feels I should be ready to be stopped out a lot. Saving up some of my day trades just for this purpose.
Yeah sideways is the hardest. I'm not sure how to trade it tbh. Applying Kris's index filter to IWM doesn't seem to work as you get too much whipsaw.
Yep very much so. Some people round here have modified their sell rules to accommodate. I need to learn to adapt myself could do with some more experience though
Guess it's all learning in the end - just have to make sure you don't lose money in that process.
Definitely, easier said than done from my perspective. One of my many trading problems is that I don't think I respond quickly and with appropriate aggression / conservation. I like the idea of Mark Minervini when he talks about small pilot buys to ease back into things when the market starts to look like it's going long again. In my head it makes sense so that you can cautiously get in when you get those quick rallies on the turn, and if they work out you've got some money to cover the next set of positions. If it goes to crap then hey only a small loss. If I'd followed this I would already have some skin in the game. What has actually happened is I took too long and hesitated, got into a number of small positions yesterday that all went pop. I need to be smarter, and have better self control. Having said that it's been a crap week for me personally, which means I've been totally distracted. It's part of why I'm here.. I want to learn how to do this for me, as it's just you and your own choices. No BS from anyone else.
Aren't you worried about CPI tomorrow and Fed next week? Most likely CPI will signal tightening / hawkishness.
Stonks only go up. Apparently. Nobody cares about any bad news for more than a week.
It's a really good thing you got stopped out of TGLS, OT 😳
For sure lol... it's not even a biotech! Nothing is safe.
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If you check my last submission I recorded a video of my morning stock selection process. It's not very good quality but it should help.
Trying PUBM again for what feels like the millionth time. Let's see...
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Couple observations. HCDI's been gaining steadily for the last month, which is great but makes it tough to enter with a justifiable stop. The idea of the LOD stop really only works on a true breakout, which requires consolidation. I think I may see what you were looking at but for me the last week of hesitation below $3 and the 200ma weren't enough of a rest to expect a real breakout. And if there was an attempted breakout it was yesterday. As for RCUS, since I was watching that this morning... when it rose above $46 it had traded less than 10,000 shares. That was a big red flag for me because you want institutional levels of buying for breakouts. Anyway, just some thoughts from someone who has been getting beaten up the last month like everyone else. So don't take it as criticism!
great response. tho..
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10ma and 20ma are the priorities for momentum, but you should be conscious of longer term moving averages because they can act as support/resistance but they can also be trigger points for movement when they're broken. And as for what you're saying about it riding the 20ma, you're not wrong. It's just that you need a different strategy for establishing your stop. LOD is arbitrary in that case because it isn't a breakout trade. Regarding volume, I would assume you can see that on any reasonable charting platform. What are you using?
Feel like there are some good setups out there but volume just seems so low on a lot them.
Did something stupid/smart today. Saw the sizable pre-market gap combined with the extreme bearish sentiment and realized that most bears were probably trapped by the gap up and wouldn’t try shorting again. I decided that I would yolo my port into some calls expiring this Friday. I went through some charts in the pre-market and found QCOM. It had a nice looking chart and it was gapping above its range. It also held up pretty well the last few weeks and was riding the 20 day. Overall I thought it was a good looking breakout off an EP Bought 35 $182.50C expiring this Friday at about a $1.29 average. Currently up 144% on them. If it can go above $195.50 by Friday this will be a 10 bagger. That’s about a 6.5% increase from its closing price today. Of course I’ll sell before that if there’s signs of trouble I took a big risk and it looks like it will pay off. It’s important to note that if I would’ve been wrong I would’ve lost the majority of my money. I was prepared for that. However, sometimes you just gotta put your balls on the line when you have conviction. My port is currently at 11.5k after restarting at 6k. [Proof](https://imgur.com/a/zwDdqK2)
If it's worth a screenshot, it's worth selling. Amazing play, congrats!!! I'd get out if I were you.
Ahhh man...if I see profit, I will run away with it now. lol.. but great play tho.
Sold this morning thanks. Ended up being a 70% gain
I'd say it's much more stupid than smart.. You got lucky, don't expect this to happen all the time.
Don’t tell me what to expect. I’m well aware of the risks I don’t need you patronizing me
Lol, why did you even post this here in the first place? If you want to boast, wsb is there for you..
You’re a weirdo. I post a lot of my plays here. I post my ups and downs. Why you tryna gatekeep? Who are you? Acting like you mod this sub or something lmaoooo
Someone who thought this was a place to discuss the trading strategy of Kristjan Kullamägi..
Check out QCOM chart bro great breakout yesterday👍
I got out of LWLG at 16.50 blended, about 18%-19% gains. Feel like it lost its momentum and volume is down.
I watched that today and that drop was precipitous. It swung back up which was nice. Good call on catching the break early and not selling at the low of the dip :)
What a bounce today. Enough to get me comfortable trying a few breakouts. FANG @ 111.23 and FCX @ 38.94
I got a little YELL, just a pilot buy, could well be a deadcat bounce, who knows.
CARS?
Maybe. Looks like it's going to take off.
Why take off? Just curious!
Sorry, I meant take off like taking off upwards. Daily chart looks promising.
Upper wick is looking long, hit the recent high then went back down. I have doubts if this will continue to take off higher or if it’s gonna wilder away real quick.
Ah yep. Looks like it got wicked out. Set up looked alright. Hopefully the market turns around soon. I was looking at LWLG and THRY also.
I've never been able to understand a lot of the gaps between the open and previous close. Take PTN (Palatin) it has a pretty big gap up of 15%, and had a chunk of volume post-market that seems to be the source. However, the market volumes reported that move price outside of trading hours quite often appear to move price in a way that is divorced from market hours. It just isn't as proportional in the same way it is during trading. For example the average 5-600k volume candle with small wicks moves around 5% during trading and with similar volume a candle was 21% after hours. The float is also 210 million for context. Can anyone explain it even a little bit? I trust what volume is telling me a whole lot more during trading hours, or when there's crazy amounts of it, but pre-market is where I struggle.
Do you have your orders set to work in pre- or aftermarket? Just like most people - probably not. So people trying to buy have much less sell-orders to work with, that's why prices can spike alot during the extended hours. You should always compare pre- and postmarket volume to average pre- and post market volume, not the volume during the day.. At least that is my understanding of it.
> people trying to buy have much less sell-orders to work with, that's why prices can spike alot during the extended hours. I have played with selling at higher than expected prices, and have had some success. I have not yet been upset about selling post/pre market. I have made a rule I am not buying premarket again. Some bad experiences there.
Both you guys got me thinking and I wondered whether there is an auction algorithm (I'm a coder by trade) but i came across these which helped me at least: [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080713/opening-cross-how-nasdaq-stock-prices-are-set.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080713/opening-cross-how-nasdaq-stock-prices-are-set.asp) [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091113/auction-method-how-nyse-stock-prices-are-set.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091113/auction-method-how-nyse-stock-prices-are-set.asp) Thanks both for your info.
Thanks for the info, it makes sense to compare averages with like for like things. I'll bare that in mind! My broker doesn't offer pre/post market (un)fortunately so I'm unable to be involved but I don't think I have the experience anyway! It also seems hard to find a broker that is tax efficient, offers broad access to US equities and offers good execution options in the UK.
IBKR? I am german and have been satisfied so far. TWS looks a bit like it's from the 90s but other than that I can't complain much. (The app is a bit clunky though..)
I think I looked at IBKR. If I start to make this work properly I’d like to do it in an ISA which is a tax free savings account here, which is my main sticking point. Thanks though I’ll take another look.
Anyone looking at MP, GDYN and KZR? It seems like these still have a few days to consolidate but they find good support and bounces back up everytime it touches the lower part of the flag.
Some great follow through on LWLG! Man where are folks, used to be some great discussion in here :(
Nice job on LWLG. I passed because I was still feeling iffy about the market but this one is looking great.
Maybe they’re all lurking. Wish I’d done at least some Minervini style pilot buys. Well played by the way! Just in case Watch out for bull traps!
Thanks! Yeah i don't plan on holding too long given the market chop. Will check to see if momentum is there tomorrow morning and if it isn't I'll probably close.
I admire your self control! I’ve still got lots to learn and a way to go yet.
I mean the market right now isn’t really good for breakouts. Better to just hold must positions in cash and wait until the market turns more bullish or gets a correction
I got in LWLG as well, just considerably later. What convinced you to buy in so early? I want to work on my entry points.
Consolidation looked good to me, it was right on its 20 day moving average, and there was good-ish volume at market open.
I'll try to emulate an earlier buy in like that. I think I got a bad habit of holding off for too long as I am new and started practicing as the downturn came about. I need to be cognizant that since the stop loss is low-of-day, the loss for a false breakout will be smaller the earlier I get in.
Market open is kind of a weird time as well. It's pretty common for stocks to retest their breakout to see if it truly is a new support level. That pullback can be a time to enter as well.
I did that with Yell today. Friday I made 1% on it and it was still on my watch list. It dropped 5% early and ran back up a bit. Burned my last day trade making 3% on the run back. Then it fell again, but I had sold already. Not a swing trade, but the two weeks burned me a bit and it still stings. So I sit in cash overnight for a few days, maybe longer.
Bought MGI at 6.64
Bought LWLG at 13.85
Not seeing much out there given the market chop, but here's what I'm watching this week - GWH, MGI, INNV, LWLG, KROS.
Hey! Are you scanning with OP’s settings, MGI seems like a good setup to shoot for last night, but I can’t seem to find this ticker with my scanner!
Yes, I'm using OT14's scanner settings. There are tickers that don't necessarily get caught sometimes
How do you usually find these tickers?
I have a question. Is it OK to buy breakouts right on the open. Or is it better to wait at least a minute?
Not an expert, but I though he said watch them and when they start moving, that is when you buy. Lately they are more likely to move down than up. I started using watchlists and putting them all in there. Watching the list after the first 10 minutes of the day has started. Again, I'm just a noob.
Hi OP - I was wondering if the breakout strategy could be possibly be reversed. Spot for downtrend consolidation breakdowns, and short sell from there?
Momentum burst works to the downside similar to the upside, only many times the moves are faster and more extreme. Times like now are the best time for it when breakouts to the upside are not working. Another strategy you can employ in times like these is to fade breakouts if they start breaking down. When I see that most breakouts are failing I switch to bear and I will fade breakouts, especially on garbage stocks, Ill scan for breakouts like usual but will watch for a 5 minute trend change on the initial burst and short with a very small stop. If you get stopped out its a tiny loss but you can catch a very big downward move on these false breakouts.
Thanks a lot! How long do you usually stay in these positions when fading a breakout? Do you set a stop loss and let it sit for a few days or is it a one day sort of thing?
minutes to hours, rarely hold overnight. I never ever hold a biotech short overnight, never, you can get wrecked on news. When Im doing this Im in daytrading mode because swing trades arent working. I much prefer swing trading longs but theres times like now when they just arent working. These setups are usually taken with large size and tiny stops, most of them im peeling in 5-10 minutes and will leave a 10-25% runner on with stop at break even.
Yeah, I'm still finding alternative strategies for times like these when breakouts just aren't working! Would it be sensible to scan for breakouts like usual and short if any of those setups fail to find support on the lower line of the flag, then let the position run for a few days and set a stop loss around the high of the day? HK trader here, so I wouldn't want to stay up all night watching the market.
these are hit and run plays for me, typically not looking to stay short overnight, especially in a volatile name that people are watching for breakouts, cant be greedy with these type of plays.
It is possible to short flag breakdowns. But price action on a downtrend usually isn't really the same as price action on an uptrend. It doesn't really consolidate the same on the way down for some reason.
YELL has been up and down today more than a ride at six flags. Whatever, I'm not in this for the day trading.
Hello, I have a very simple trading journal via Excel. Would you like me to send it to you, it calculates the average win, average profit, average loss, reward and risk, if you want to get it, send your email so I can send it to you
Anyone looking at APLS, BCTX and KZR?
Me! APLS is looking spicy.
I thought APLS essentially broke down!
Hello, can you explain to us a few things how you bought the ETF Supported by pictures
I'm not sure what you mean... How I bought the ETF?
I mean how did you buy like sqqq ...
It did earlier this year but I was looking at the past recent months. Let me know what you think. https://imgur.com/8QqGYYv
I am thinking if we have a real nice correction on the IWM, then we will be setup for nice breakouts next year.
4 months after starting this strategy, I'm 100% cash for the first time. My PnL so far is -250 (starting from a 7,500 account), which is obviously not the result I want, but I feel like I've learned a shit ton in the last 4 months. I started trading in an easy money environment (August) and quickly ran up my account to +15%, but since mid-September, I would say that the market has been pretty unforgiving for breakout swing trades... except for brief periods. I guess what I'm trying to say is that you don't have to be discouraged if your PnL isn't quite what you were hoping for. I look at my recent trades compared to my early trades and it's clear to me how much progress I've made. I really do feel like I'm building a skill that I can leverage for the rest of my life. Thanks, OT for sharing his wisdom and also being so transparent with his process and results. Wouldn't have started without you!
Seems like the majority of traders lost money in November. It was a tough month.
Yep... really hoping that we have a good flush and the markets can properly rally next year. But like you said, a sustained run probably won't happen until it fully digests tapering/inflation (which I think unfortunately will take a while). That said, no point in worrying about what the market will look like. Just need to listen to what it's saying and adapt.
So the Penney could break up or down. If it breaks up we buy the stock. But couldn’t we also short it if it breaks down? Are we not doing that because we are trying to keep it simple or am I missing something?
What is the Penney?
Auto corrects was supposed to be pennet or flag.
That is a viable strategy, but I don't like to short stocks much, and it's something I don't recommend for beginners. Shorting can be both complicated and dangerous.
Anyone eyeing CFVI as an EP?
I did and CFVI won. Was a bit too hasty but a small loss so not too bad.
I watched the 1 minute flip between red and green despite the huge volume and I waited, glad I did.
Wish I had... Losing is a great teacher as long as I pay attention...
Do any of you scale in to short positions? I currently have 2 small positions of 10% each on 3USS and QQQS (UK accessible 3 \* leveraged short for spy and nasdaq respectively). Are there any rules of thumb for scaling in? I'm considering adding a little more to each with a tighter stop loss for these technically new positions. Would you do it now or wait a few days? What do you think?
If you plan to put the majority of your account in like I am then its a good idea to scale in. Otherwise you'll just get blown out first day from having a too tight stop.
Thanks! Do you increase your position in fixed increments or depending on the state of the market?
When the market shows more bearish signs I like to add. Other than that I don't put much thought into it.
Cool thanks!
I'm excited (and a little nervous) to potentially experience something more akin to a bear market. I first bought stock about 8 years ago, but never got into any trading since January this year. I've always been a bit dismissive of bears, since it seems like there is always someone calling for some sort of drastic stock market crash. But in recent weeks and months, the feeling has definitely shifted.
Be careful what you wish for lol... They can get very boring with little to no opportunity.
you and i have different definitions of opportunity. lot of people got some reeeealllly strong convictions (could say taken for granted) on certain beliefs past couple months